[This question paper contains 6 printed pages.
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Your Roll No. _______________
Unique Paper Code : 2354000010 Semester : VI
Name of the Paper : Introduction to Mathematical Duration : 3 Hours
Modelling (GE) Maximum Marks : 90
Name of the Course : [Link].(H)/B.A.(H)/[Link].
(H)/BMS
Instructions for Candidates
1. Write your Roll No. on the top immediately on receipt of this question paper.
2. All six questions are compulsory.
3. Attempt any two parts from each question.
4. All questions carry equal marks.
5. Use of non-programmable scientific calculator is allowed.
SECTION A: Epidemic Models (SIR Model)
1. (a) Construct a compartmental diagram for the SIR model of influenza. Formulate word equations for the
rates of change of susceptibles S(t), infectives I(t), and recovered R(t). Write down the system of differential
equations for this model.
1. (b) In an SIR epidemic model for a boarding school of N = 800 students, the transmission coefficient is β =
2.5 × 10⁻³ day⁻¹ and the recovery rate is γ = 0.5 day⁻¹. The outbreak begins with I(0) = 1 infective.
(i) Write down the governing differential equations.
(ii) Calculate the basic reproduction number R₀. Will the disease spread or die out?
(iii) What proportion of the population must be vaccinated to prevent an outbreak?
1. (c) Explain the difference between frequency-dependent and density-dependent transmission in epidemic
models. Write the force of infection λ(t) for each case and indicate which is more appropriate for human
populations and why.
SECTION A (continued): Endemic Disease & Model Variations
2. (a) Describe how the basic SIR model is modified to obtain a model for an endemic disease. Include
natural births and deaths in the system of differential equations and explain what role births play in sustaining
recurrent outbreaks.
2. (b) Imagine a disease in which every infected individual remains contagious indefinitely (no recovery).
There are no births or deaths. Set up a system of two differential equations for the number of susceptibles S(t)
and infectives I(t). Draw the corresponding compartmental diagram and state what happens to S(t) as t → ∞.
2. (c) For the standard SIR model, derive a simple formula for the basic reproduction number R₀ and explain
its biological meaning. If R₀ ≈ 15 for measles, what minimum percentage of the population must be
vaccinated to eradicate it?
SECTION B: Predator–Prey Model (Lotka–Volterra)
3. (a) Determine the compartmental diagram and appropriate word equations for the predator-prey system.
Let X(t) be the prey density and Y(t) the predator density. Using your word equations, derive the Lotka–
Volterra differential equations:
dX/dt = β₁X − c₁XY
dY/dt = c₂XY − α₂Y
Clearly state the meaning of each parameter.
3. (b) Check the Lotka–Volterra model in the two limiting cases:
(i) Prey with no predator (Y = 0): What does the model predict?
(ii) Predator with no prey (X = 0): What does the model predict?
Comment on whether these limiting behaviours are biologically reasonable.
3. (c) When DDT is applied to the Lotka–Volterra system, per-capita death rates p₁ and p₂ are added for prey
and predator respectively. Write the modified differential equations and explain why the application of DDT
can paradoxically increase the mean pest (prey) population.
SECTION B (continued): Competing Species & Extensions
4. (a) Two species X(t) and Y(t) compete for the same resource. Write down the differential equations for the
competing species model (Gause's equations). Explain the meaning of each parameter, and state Gause's
Principle of Competitive Exclusion. How does the model change when density-dependent (logistic) growth is
incorporated for both species?
4. (b) Develop a model with three differential equations for a predator-prey interaction where there are two
different species of prey X(t) and Z(t), and one species of predator Y(t). State clearly your assumptions, draw
a compartmental diagram, and write all three equations.
4. (c) In the competing species model, the parameter f = c₂/c₁ is called the competitive efficiency. Interpret
this biologically. If the per-capita growth rate of species X is β₁ = 0.22 hr ⁻¹ and of species Y is β₂ = 0.06
hr⁻¹, and interaction parameters are c₁ = 0.053 and c₂ = 0.0046, which species do you expect to survive in the
long run? Give a qualitative justification.
SECTION C: Battle (Lanchester) Model
5. (a) Construct an appropriate input-output compartmental diagram and associated word equations for the
number of soldiers in both the red army R(t) and the blue army B(t). Assuming aimed fire for both armies,
formulate the system of differential equations. Define the attrition coefficients a₁ and a₂ and give their
physical interpretation.
5. (b) Express the attrition coefficients a₁ and a₂ in terms of the firing rate f and the probability p of a shot
hitting a target for each army. In the Battle of Iwo Jima, a₁ = 0.0544 and a₂ = 0.0106. What does this say
about the relative effectiveness of the two armies? Give a historical reason why this might be the case.
5. (c) Explain the difference between aimed fire and random fire in the battle model. Write the system of
differential equations for guerrilla warfare (one army uses aimed fire, the other uses random fire) and for long-
range artillery (both armies use random fire). How do these systems differ from the aimed fire model in
equation structure?
SECTION D: Diffusion of Innovation / Applied Modelling
6. (a) Let N(t) be the number of farmers who have adopted a new agricultural technology in a region. The
adoption satisfies the logistic growth equation:
dN/dt = aN(1 − N/N*)
where N* = 10,000 is the total farming population, a = 0.45, and N(0) = 200.
(i) State what kind of model this is and what the parameters represent.
(ii) Determine how long it takes for 75% of the population to adopt the technology.
6. (b) For the following data, fit the curve y = ax² using the Least Squares Method:
x 4 8 12 16 20
y 1.5 3.8 6.2 10.5 17
Find the value of a and hence estimate y when x = 10.
6. (c) For the data below, set up (do not solve) the residuals to fit the model y = cx + d to the data using the
Sum of Absolute Deviations criterion:
x 1 3 5
y 4 8 11
Write out the expression to be minimised in terms of c and d.
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