A-Level Lecture Note on Probability

With Definitions, Worked Examples, and Exercises

Contents

1 Introduction 4

2 Basic Terms in Probability 4

2.1 Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

2.2 Random Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

2.3 Outcome . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

2.4 Sample Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2.5 Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2.6 Simple Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2.7 Compound Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2.8 Certain Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

2.9 Impossible Event . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2.10 Equally Likely Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2.11 Mutually Exclusive Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2.12 Independent Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

3 Probability of an Event 6

3.1 Properties of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

3.2 Worked Example 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

4 Methods of Assigning Probability 7

4.1 Theoretical Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

4.2 Experimental Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

4.3 Worked Example 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

5 Probability of Complementary Events 8

5.1 Worked Example 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

6 Addition Law of Probability 8

6.1 For Mutually Exclusive Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

6.2 Worked Example 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

6.3 For Non-Mutually Exclusive Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

6.4 Worked Example 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

7 Multiplication Law of Probability 10

7.1 For Independent Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

7.2 Worked Example 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

7.3 For Dependent Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

7.4 Worked Example 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

8 Conditional Probability 11

8.1 Worked Example 8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

9 Use of Venn Diagrams in Probability 11

9.1 Worked Example 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

10 Probability Trees 12

10.1 Worked Example 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

11 Odds 13

11.1 Meaning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

11.2 Worked Example 11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

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12 Summary of Important Formulae 13

13 Exercises 14

14 Answers to Exercises 16

15 Bayes’ Rule 19

15.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

15.2 Conditional Probability Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

15.3 Statement of Bayes’ Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

15.4 General Form of Bayes’ Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

15.5 Steps in Solving Bayes’ Rule Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

15.6 Worked Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

15.7 Interpretation of Bayes’ Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

15.8 Common Errors in Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

15.9 Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

15.10Exercises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

1. Probability

Probability is the branch of statistics and mathematics that deals with chance and un-
certainty. It helps us measure how likely an event is to occur. In real life, probability is
used in weather forecasting, insurance, medicine, games, finance, and decision-making.

1.1 Basic Terms in Probability

Experiment

An experiment is any process or action that leads to one or more possible outcomes.

Examples:

• Tossing a coin

• Rolling a die

• Drawing a card from a pack

• Selecting a student from a class

Random Experiment

A random experiment is an experiment for which the exact outcome cannot be predicted
with certainty in advance, even though all possible outcomes are known.

Examples:

• Tossing a fair coin

• Rolling a fair die

Outcome

An outcome is a possible result of an experiment.

Example: If a die is rolled, one possible outcome is 4.

Sample Space

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment. It is usually
denoted by S.

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Example 1: Coin toss

S = {H, T }

Example 2: Rolling a die

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Event

An event is a set of outcomes from the sample space. It is usually denoted by capital
letters such as A, B, or E.

Example: If a die is rolled and event A is “getting an even number”, then:

A = {2, 4, 6}

Simple Event

A simple event is an event containing only one outcome.

Example:
A = {3}

Compound Event

A compound event is an event containing more than one outcome.

Example:
B = {2, 4, 6}

Certain Event

A certain event is an event that must happen.

P (S) = 1

Impossible Event

An impossible event is an event that cannot happen.

P (∅) = 0

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Equally Likely Events

Events are equally likely if each outcome has the same chance of occurring.

Example: In a fair die, the outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are equally likely.

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time.

Example: When one die is rolled, getting an odd number and getting an even number
are mutually exclusive.

Independent Events

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the occurrence of the
other.

Example: Tossing a coin and rolling a die are independent events.

1.2 Probability of an Event

If all outcomes are equally likely, then the probability of an event A is:

Number of favourable outcomes

P (A) =
Total number of possible outcomes

1.2.1 Properties of Probability

• 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1

• P (S) = 1

• P (∅) = 0

1.2.2 Worked Example 1

A fair die is rolled. Find the probability of getting:

(a) a 4

(b) an even number

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(c) a number greater than 4

Solution

Sample space:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

(a) Event A = {4}

1
P (A) =
6
(b) Event B = {2, 4, 6}

3 1
P (B) = =
6 2
(c) Event C = {5, 6}

2 1
P (C) = =
6 3

1.3 Methods of Assigning Probability

1.3.1 Theoretical Probability

This is based on known equally likely outcomes.

Example: Probability of getting a head in a fair coin toss is:

1
P (H) =
2

Experimental Probability

This is based on observed data from repeated trials.

Number of times event A occurs

P (A) =
Total number of trials

Worked Example 2

A coin is tossed 50 times and head occurs 28 times. Find the experimental probability
of getting a head.

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Solution
28 14
P (H) = = = 0.56
50 25

1.4 Probability of Complementary Events

The complement of an event A, written as Ac , is the event that A does not occur.

P (Ac ) = 1 − P (A)

Worked Example 3

A fair die is rolled. Find the probability of not getting a 5.

Solution

Let A = {5}

1
P (A) =
6

Therefore,
1 5
P (Ac ) = 1 − =
6 6

1.5 Addition Law of Probability

For Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then:

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)

Worked Example 4

A fair die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a 2 or a 5.

Solution

Let:
A = {2}, B = {5}

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Since the events are mutually exclusive,

1 1 2 1
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) = + = =
6 6 6 3

For Non-Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then:

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Worked Example 5

In a class of 40 students, 22 study Economics, 18 study Government, and 10 study both

Economics and Government. Find the probability that a student chosen at random
studies Economics or Government.

Solution

Let E = studies Economics, G = studies Government.

22 18 10
P (E) = , P (G) = , P (E ∩ G) =
40 40 40

P (E ∪ G) = P (E) + P (G) − P (E ∩ G)

22 18 10 30 3
= + − = =
40 40 40 40 4

1.6 Multiplication Law of Probability

For Independent Events

If A and B are independent, then:

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)

Worked Example 6

A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head and a 4.

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Solution

1 1
P (H) = , P (4) =
2 6

Since the events are independent,

1 1 1
P (H ∩ 4) = × =
2 6 12

For Dependent Events

If the events are dependent, then:

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B|A)

where P (B|A) means the probability of B given that A has already occurred.

Worked Example 7

A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. Two balls are drawn one after the other
without replacement. Find the probability that both are red.

Solution

Probability of first red:

5
P (R1 ) =
8

Probability of second red given first red:

4
P (R2 |R1 ) =
7

Therefore,
5 4 20 5
P (R1 ∩ R2 ) = × = =
8 7 56 14

1.7 Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of A given B is:

P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) = , P (B) ̸= 0
P (B)

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Worked Example 8

In a class, 30 students play football, 20 play basketball, and 12 play both games. Find
the probability that a student plays football given that the student plays basketball.

Solution

Let F = football, B = basketball.

P (F ∩ B)
P (F |B) =
P (B)

12 3
= =
20 5

1.8 Use of Venn Diagrams in Probability

Venn diagrams are used to show relationships between sets and events.

Worked Example 9

In a group of 50 students:

• 28 study Mathematics

• 20 study Physics

• 8 study both Mathematics and Physics

Find:

(a) the number who study Mathematics only

(b) the number who study Physics only

(c) the number who study at least one of the two subjects

(d) the number who study neither subject

Solution

(a) Mathematics only:

28 − 8 = 20

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

(b) Physics only:

20 − 8 = 12

(c) At least one:

28 + 20 − 8 = 40

(d) Neither:
50 − 40 = 10

1.9 Probability Trees

Tree diagrams are useful for showing successive events, especially where outcomes occur
in stages.

Worked Example 10

A bag contains 2 white balls and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement.
Find the probability of drawing:

(a) two white balls

(b) one white and one black in that order

Solution

(a)
2 1
P (W1 ) = , P (W2 |W1 ) =
5 4

2 1 1
P (W1 ∩ W2 ) = × =
5 4 10
(b)
2 3
P (W1 ) = , P (B2 |W1 ) =
5 4

2 3 3
P (W1 ∩ B2 ) = × =
5 4 10

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1.10 Odds

1.11 Meaning

Odds in favour of an event compare the number of favourable outcomes to the number
of unfavourable outcomes.

P (A)
Odds in favour of A =
P (Ac )

Worked Example 11

A box contains 7 good bulbs and 3 defective bulbs. Find the odds in favour of selecting
a good bulb.

Solution

Favourable outcomes = 7, unfavourable outcomes = 3

So the odds in favour are:

7:3

Summary of Important Formulae

Concept Formula
favourable outcomes
Probability of an event P (A) =
total outcomes
Complement rule P (Ac ) = 1 − P (A)
Addition rule (mutually ex- P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
clusive)
Addition rule (general) P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
Multiplication rule (inde- P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B)
pendent)
P (A ∩ B)
Conditional probability P (A|B) =
P (B)
Dependent multiplication P (A ∩ B) = P (A) × P (B|A)
rule

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Exercises

Exercise 1

A fair coin is tossed once. Write down:

(a) the sample space

(b) the event of getting a head

(c) the probability of getting a tail

Exercise 2

A fair die is rolled once. Find the probability of getting:

(a) an odd number

(b) a prime number

(c) a number less than 3

Exercise 3

A bag contains 4 red balls, 5 green balls, and 3 blue balls. One ball is chosen at random.
Find the probability that it is:

(a) red

(b) not blue

(c) green or blue

Exercise 4

In a school of 60 students, 35 offer Biology, 25 offer Chemistry, and 10 offer both subjects.
Find:

(a) the probability that a student chosen at random offers Biology or Chemistry

(b) the number of students who offer neither subject

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Exercise 5

A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting:

(a) a head and an even number

(b) a tail and a number greater than 4

Exercise 6

A bag contains 6 white balls and 4 black balls. Two balls are drawn without replacement.
Find the probability that:

(a) both are white

(b) the first is black and the second is white

Exercise 7

In a survey of 80 students, 45 like football, 30 like basketball, and 15 like both. Find:

(a) the number who like football only

(b) the number who like basketball only

(c) the number who like at least one of the games

(d) the number who like neither game

Exercise 8

A box contains 9 working batteries and 1 faulty battery. Find the odds:

(a) in favour of selecting a working battery

(b) against selecting a faulty battery

Exercise 9

A class contains 24 boys and 16 girls. A student is selected at random. Find the proba-
bility that the student is:

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

(a) a boy

(b) a girl

(c) not a girl

Exercise 10

A die is rolled twice. Find the probability that:

(a) both numbers are 6

(b) at least one is 6

2. Answers to Exercises

Exercise 1

(a) S = {H, T }

(b) {H}
1
(c)
2

Exercise 2

3 1
(a) =
6 2
3 1
(b) Prime numbers are 2, 3, 5, so =
6 2
2 1
(c) Numbers less than 3 are 1, 2, so =
6 3

Exercise 3

Total balls:
4 + 5 + 3 = 12

4 1
(a) =
12 3
9 3
(b) =
12 4
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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

5+3 8 2
(c) = =
12 12 3

Exercise 4

n(B ∪ C) = 35 + 25 − 10 = 50

50 5
(a) =
60 6
(b) 60 − 50 = 10

Exercise 5

(a)
1 3 3 1
× = =
2 6 12 4
(b)
1 2 2 1
× = =
2 6 12 6

Exercise 6

(a)
6 5 30 1
× = =
10 9 90 3
(b)
4 6 24 4
× = =
10 9 90 15

Exercise 7

(a) 45 − 15 = 30

(b) 30 − 15 = 15

(c) 45 + 30 − 15 = 60

(d) 80 − 60 = 20

Exercise 8

(a) Odds in favour of working battery = 9 : 1

(b) Odds against faulty battery = 9 : 1

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Exercise 9

Total students:
24 + 16 = 40

24 3
(a) =
40 5
16 2
(b) =
40 5
24 3
(c) =
40 5

Exercise 10

(a)
1 1 1
× =
6 6 36
(b) Probability of at least one 6:

1 − P (no 6 in both throws)

 
5 5 25 11
=1− × =1− =
6 6 36 36

3. Bayes’ Rule

3.1 Introduction

Bayes’ Rule is a fundamental concept in probability theory used to determine the prob-
ability of an event based on prior knowledge of related conditions. It is especially useful
when information becomes available and an existing probability needs to be updated. In
many practical situations, Bayes’ Rule helps to reverse conditional probabilities.

For example, it helps answer questions such as:

• What is the probability that a student came from a particular class, given that the
student passed an examination?

• What is the probability that a machine produced a defective item, given that the
selected item is defective?

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

• What is the probability that a person has a disease, given that the test result is
positive?

Thus, Bayes’ Rule is a method of revising probabilities in the light of new evidence.

3.2 Conditional Probability Review

Recall that the conditional probability of an event A given an event B is defined as

P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) = , P (B) > 0.
P (B)

Similarly, the conditional probability of B given A is

P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) = , P (A) > 0.
P (A)

From these definitions, we obtain

P (A ∩ B) = P (A|B)P (B)

and also

P (A ∩ B) = P (B|A)P (A).

Equating the two expressions gives

P (A|B)P (B) = P (B|A)P (A).

Hence,

P (B|A)P (A)
P (A|B) = .
P (B)

This is known as Bayes’ Rule.

3.3 Statement of Bayes’ Rule

The basic form of Bayes’ Rule is

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

P (B|A)P (A)
P (A|B) = ,
P (B)

where:

• P (A) is the prior probability of A,

• P (B|A) is the likelihood,

• P (B) is the marginal probability of B,

• P (A|B) is the posterior probability of A given B.

3.4 General Form of Bayes’ Rule

Suppose A1 , A2 , A3 , . . . , An are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events such that

A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ An = S.

Then for any event B such that P (B) > 0,

P (B|Ak )P (Ak )
P (Ak |B) = Pn .
i=1 P (B|Ai )P (Ai )

This form is very useful when an event B may arise from several possible sources.

3.5 Steps in Solving Bayes’ Rule Problems

To solve problems involving Bayes’ Rule, the following steps are usually followed:

1. Define the events clearly.

2. Identify the probability to be found.

3. Write down the prior probabilities.

4. Write down the relevant conditional probabilities.

5. Compute the total probability of the observed event where necessary.

6. Substitute into Bayes’ Rule.

7. Simplify the final answer.

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

3.6 Worked Examples

Example 1: Students from Two Classes

A school has two classes:

• Class A has 30 students, of whom 18 are girls.

• Class B has 20 students, of whom 8 are girls.

One student is selected at random from the whole school. If the selected student is a girl,
find the probability that she came from Class A.

Solution Let
A = event that the student is from Class A,

G = event that the student is a girl.

Then
30 3 20 2
P (A) = = , P (Ac ) = = .
50 5 50 5

Also,
18 3
P (G|A) = = ,
30 5
8 2
P (G|Ac ) = = .
20 5

By Bayes’ Rule,

P (G|A)P (A)
P (A|G) = .
P (G|A)P (A) + P (G|Ac )P (Ac )

Substituting,

3 3



P (A|G) = 3

3

5 5
2

2

.
5 5
+ 5 5

9/25 9/25 9
P (A|G) = = = .
9/25 + 4/25 13/25 13

Therefore,

9
P (A|G) = .
13

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Example 2: Factory Machines

A factory has three machines M1 , M2 , and M3 producing 20%, 30%, and 50% of the total
items respectively. The percentages of defective items from the machines are:

• M1 : 4%

• M2 : 3%

• M3 : 2%

If an item is selected at random and found to be defective, find the probability that it
was produced by M2 .

Solution Let D be the event that the selected item is defective.

Given,
P (M1 ) = 0.20, P (M2 ) = 0.30, P (M3 ) = 0.50,

P (D|M1 ) = 0.04, P (D|M2 ) = 0.03, P (D|M3 ) = 0.02.

We need to find
P (M2 |D).

First, compute P (D) using the law of total probability:

P (D) = P (D|M1 )P (M1 ) + P (D|M2 )P (M2 ) + P (D|M3 )P (M3 ).

Thus,
P (D) = (0.04)(0.20) + (0.03)(0.30) + (0.02)(0.50).

P (D) = 0.008 + 0.009 + 0.010 = 0.027.

Now apply Bayes’ Rule:

P (D|M2 )P (M2 )
P (M2 |D) = .
P (D)

(0.03)(0.30) 0.009 1
P (M2 |D) = = = .
0.027 0.027 3

Therefore,

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

1
P (M2 |D) = .
3

Example 3: Medical Testing

A disease affects 2% of a population. A test for the disease gives a positive result with
probability 0.95 if a person has the disease, and with probability 0.08 if a person does not
have the disease. If a person tests positive, find the probability that the person actually
has the disease.

Solution Let
D = event that the person has the disease,

P = event that the test result is positive.

Given,
P (D) = 0.02, P (Dc ) = 0.98,

P (P |D) = 0.95, P (P |Dc ) = 0.08.

Using Bayes’ Rule,

P (P |D)P (D)
P (D|P ) = .
P (P |D)P (D) + P (P |Dc )P (Dc )

Substituting,

(0.95)(0.02)
P (D|P ) = .
(0.95)(0.02) + (0.08)(0.98)

0.019 0.019
P (D|P ) = = ≈ 0.1951.
0.019 + 0.0784 0.0974

Therefore,

P (D|P ) ≈ 0.1951 .

This means that even after a positive test result, the probability that the person actually
has the disease is about 19.51%.

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Example 4: Urn Problem

There are two urns:

• Urn I contains 4 white balls and 6 black balls.

• Urn II contains 7 white balls and 3 black balls.

An urn is chosen at random and one ball is drawn. If the ball drawn is white, find the
probability that it came from Urn II.

Solution Let
U1 = event that Urn I is selected,

U2 = event that Urn II is selected,

W = event that a white ball is drawn.

Since an urn is chosen at random,

1
P (U1 ) = P (U2 ) = .
2

Also,
4 2
P (W |U1 ) = = ,
10 5
7
P (W |U2 ) = .
10

We require
P (U2 |W ).

By Bayes’ Rule,

P (W |U2 )P (U2 )
P (U2 |W ) = .
P (W |U1 )P (U1 ) + P (W |U2 )P (U2 )

Substituting,

7 1



P (U2 |W ) = 2

1

10 2

7 1

.
5 2
+ 10 2

7/20 7/20 7
P (U2 |W ) = = = .
4/20 + 7/20 11/20 11

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

Therefore,

7
P (U2 |W ) = .
11

3.7 Interpretation of Bayes’ Rule

Bayes’ Rule provides a systematic way of updating probabilities once new information is
obtained. It shows that the probability of a cause after observing evidence depends on:

• how likely the evidence is under that cause,

• the initial probability of the cause,

• and the overall probability of the evidence.

This principle is widely applied in medicine, education, finance, engineering, and machine
learning.

3.8 Common Errors in Application

Students should avoid the following mistakes:

• confusing P (A|B) with P (B|A),

• forgetting to calculate the total probability in the denominator,

• failing to define events properly,

• substituting the wrong probabilities into the formula,

• assuming that a high test accuracy automatically means a high posterior probability.

3.9 Summary

Bayes’ Rule is given by

P (B|A)P (A)
P (A|B) = .
P (B)

In its general form,

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A-Level Statistics Probability Lecture Note

P (B|Ak )P (Ak )
P (Ak |B) = Pn .
i=1 P (B|Ai )P (Ai )

It is an important tool in probability because it allows probabilities to be revised logically

when additional evidence becomes available.

3.10 Exercises

1. A box contains two types of bulbs. Type A bulbs constitute 60% of the bulbs and
have a defect rate of 4%. Type B bulbs constitute 40% of the bulbs and have a
defect rate of 7%. If a bulb selected at random is defective, find the probability
that it is a Type B bulb.

2. A certain disease affects 1% of a population. A test is positive with probability 0.90

for a diseased person and with probability 0.05 for a healthy person. If a person
tests positive, find the probability that the person has the disease.

3. Two bags are available. Bag I contains 5 white balls and 3 black balls, while Bag
II contains 4 white balls and 6 black balls. One bag is selected at random and one
ball is drawn. If the ball drawn is white, find the probability that it came from Bag
I.

4. A school has two sections. Section A has 40 students, of whom 24 are boys. Section
B has 30 students, of whom 12 are boys. If a student chosen at random is a boy,
find the probability that he is from Section A.

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