Chapter 4: Probability | Basic Statistics 2026 | Lectures 10-13

CHAPTER 4

Probability
Basic Statistics 2026 — Comprehensive Study Notes
Lectures 10, 11, 12 & 13 — All Topics Combined

What This Document Covers

• 4.1 Introduction to Probability
• 4.2 Definitions: experiments, outcomes, events, sample space
• 4.3 Counting Sample Points: Product Rule, Permutation, Combination, Hypergeometric
• 4.4 Additive Laws: P(A or B), complementary events, mutually exclusive events
• 4.5 Multiplicative Laws: conditional probability, independent vs dependent events, contingency tables
• 4.6 Bayes' Theorem: reversing conditional probability using tree diagrams

4.1 Introduction to Probability

Probability is the branch of mathematics that deals with measuring the likelihood or chance of an event
occurring. It provides a formal, numerical way to reason about uncertainty.
We encounter probability every single day — from weather forecasts ('70% chance of rain') to medical tests ('the
treatment has an 85% success rate') to simply flipping a coin. The theory of probability has branched into many
fields:
Field How Probability Is Used

Business Decision-making under uncertainty — should we

invest? What is the risk?

Economics Cost-benefit analysis, market forecasting, resource

allocation under scarcity

Weather Forecasting Sea travel safety, storm prediction, agricultural

planning

Scientific Research Assessing significance of experimental results,

funding decisions

Politics Election outcome prediction, polling, policy risk

assessment

Medicine Diagnosis probabilities, treatment success rates,

disease spread modelling

4.2 Key Definitions

Before computing any probability, you must understand the key vocabulary. These definitions are the
foundation of everything that follows.

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Term Definition & Example

Experiment Any process that produces an observable outcome.

Example: rolling a die, flipping a coin, drawing a card

Outcome A single possible result of an experiment. Example:

rolling a 3 on a die is one outcome

Sample Space (S) The set of ALL possible outcomes of an experiment.

Example: for a coin flip, S = {Heads, Tails}

Event A subset of the sample space — one or more

outcomes grouped together. Example: Event A =
'rolling an even number' = {2, 4, 6}

Simple Event An event with only one outcome. Example: rolling

exactly a 5

Compound Event The simultaneous occurrence of two or more events.

Example: rolling an even number AND getting a
number greater than 3

Sure Event An event that contains ALL possible outcomes. P(sure

event) = 1

Impossible Event An event with NO possible outcomes. P(impossible

event) = 0

Equally Likely Events None of the events is expected to occur more

frequently than any other. Example: each face of a
fair die

Complementary Event (A^c) The event 'NOT A' — everything in the sample space
that is NOT in A. P(A) + P(A^c) = 1

The Probability Formula

Classical Probability (for equally likely outcomes):
P(Event A) = Number of outcomes favourable to A / Total number of equally
likely outcomes
Or using notation:
P(A) = n(A) / n(S)
Where n(A) = number of outcomes in event A, n(S) = total outcomes in sample space

The Two Golden Rules of Probability:

• Rule 1: 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 for any event A. Probability can never be negative or greater than 1.
• Rule 2: The sum of probabilities of ALL possible outcomes = 1.
P(outcome 1) + P(outcome 2) + ... + P(outcome n) = 1

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Example 1 (Basic Probability)

Problem:
The outcomes of an experiment are {1, 2, 4, 6, 9}. Three events are defined:
Event A = {1, 2} Event B = {4, 6, 9} Event C = {1, 2, 4, 6, 9}
Find the probability of each event.

Solution:
The sample space is S = {1, 2, 4, 6, 9}, so n(S) = 5. Each outcome is equally likely.
P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = 2/5 = 0.4
P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = 3/5 = 0.6
P(C) = n(C)/n(S) = 5/5 = 1 (C is the sure event!)

Check: P(A) + P(B) = 0.4 + 0.6 = 1 ✓ (A and B are complementary — A^c = B)

C contains all 5 outcomes, so its probability is 1 — it always occurs. This is the sure event.

4.3 Counting Sample Points

To find the probability of an event, we need to know how many outcomes are in it and in the whole sample
space. For large experiments, listing every outcome is impractical. Instead, we use four counting methods:

• 1. Product Rule — for drawing one from each of several groups

• 2. Permutation — ordered arrangements of objects
• 3. Combination — unordered selections of objects
• 4. Hypergeometric Rule — combinations across multiple groups (e.g., boys AND girls)

4.3.1 Product Rule

The Product Rule is used when an experiment involves selecting one object from each of several independent
groups, or when a multi-stage process has a fixed number of choices at each stage.

Product Rule 1 (Multiple Groups):

If there are k types of objects with n1 objects of the 1st type, n2 of the 2nd type, ..., nk of the kth type, and
ONE object is chosen from each type, the total number of ways is:
Total = n1 × n2 × n3 × ... × nk
Product Rule 2 (Filling r positions from n objects, with replacement):
Total = n^r (n to the power r)
Product Rule 3 (Filling r positions from n objects, WITHOUT replacement, ordered):
Total = n × (n-1) × (n-2) × ... × (n-r+1) = n! / (n-r)!

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Example: Shirts, Pants & Shoes

You have 3 shirts, 4 pants, and 2 pairs of shoes. How many different outfits can you make?
Total outfits = 3 × 4 × 2 = 24
Each choice is independent, so we multiply the number of options at each stage.

Example 4: Boys and Girls on a Bench

In how many ways can 3 boys and 2 girls (5 people total) be seated on a park bench?
Solution:
This is a Product Rule 3 situation — we have 5 seats (positions) and 5 people. For the 1st seat: 5 choices. For
the 2nd seat: 4 choices. And so on.
Total = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5! = 120 ways
There are 120 different ways to arrange all 5 people on the bench.

4.3.2 Permutation
A permutation is an arrangement of objects where ORDER MATTERS. The number of permutations of r objects
selected from n distinct objects is:
P(n, r) = n! / (n - r)!
Where n! (n factorial) = n × (n-1) × (n-2) × ... × 2 × 1 and 0! = 1

When does order matter?

Order matters when the ARRANGEMENT or SEQUENCE is different for different outcomes. Key words:
'ranked', 'arranged', 'first/second/third', 'president/secretary', 'order in which'...
• Example where order matters: Selecting a class President and Vice-President from 10 students.
Choosing Tom as President and Mary as VP is DIFFERENT from Tom as VP and Mary as President.
• Example where order does NOT matter: Selecting a committee of 2 from 10 students. {Tom, Mary} and
{Mary, Tom} are the SAME committee.

Example: Musical Plays (Permutation)

A musical director has 9 plays. She selects 2: one for fall, one for spring. How many different possibilities?
Solution — ORDER MATTERS:
Choosing Play A for fall and Play B for spring is DIFFERENT from Play B for fall and Play A for spring.
P(9, 2) = 9! / (9-2)! = 9! / 7! = (9 × 8 × 7!) / 7! = 9 × 8 = 72
There are 72 different ways to schedule the two plays.

4.3.3 Combination
A combination is a selection of objects where ORDER DOES NOT MATTER. We only care which objects are
selected, not their arrangement. The number of combinations of r objects from n is:

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C(n, r) = n! / [r! × (n - r)!]

This is also written as nCr or 'n choose r'. Note that C(n,r) is always smaller than P(n,r) because we divide by r! to
remove the different arrangements.

Key Connection:
P(n,r) = C(n,r) × r!
This makes sense: to go from combinations (unordered) to permutations (ordered), you multiply by r! (the
number of ways to arrange the r selected objects).

Example: Musical Plays (Combination)

Same 9 plays, but now order does NOT matter (just selecting 2 plays to perform, no specific season assigned):
C(9, 2) = 9! / [2! × 7!] = (9 × 8) / (2 × 1) = 72/2 = 36
Only 36 combinations (vs 72 permutations) because {Play A, Play B} = {Play B, Play A}.

Example 9 — Complex Combination Problem (Fully Worked)

Problem:
There are 12 children: 5 girls and 7 boys. Select a group of 6. Find the number of ways to select:
1. 3 boys
2. All the boys
3. At least 4 girls
Then compute the probability for each.

First — the total number of ways to select any 6 from 12:

C(12, 6) = 12! / [6! × 6!] = 924

Part (a): Exactly 3 boys

If 3 boys are chosen from 7, then the remaining 3 must come from the 5 girls.
Boys: C(7, 3) = 7! / [3! × 4!] = 35
Girls: C(5, 3) = 5! / [3! × 2!] = 10
Total ways = 35 × 10 = 350 [Hypergeometric: choose from BOTH groups]
P(3 boys) = 350/924 = 0.379 (or about 37.9%)

Part (b): All 7 boys

Choosing all 7 boys means we only need 6, but we can only choose 6 at a time. So we choose 6 of the 7 boys
(leaving 1 boy out) and 0 girls.
Wait — re-reading: 'all the boys' in a group of 6 is impossible since there are 7 boys and we only pick 6. But if the
question means 'select all 7 boys' that needs 7 spots, not 6. Let's interpret as 'maximum boys' = selecting 6 boys
from 7:
C(7, 6) × C(5, 0) = 7 × 1 = 7 ways
P(6 boys, 0 girls) = 7/924 ≈ 0.0076 (very unlikely!)

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Part (c): At least 4 girls

'At least 4 girls' means 4 girls, OR 5 girls. (We can't have 6 girls since only 5 exist.)
Case 1: Exactly 4 girls, 2 boys = C(5,4) × C(7,2) = 5 × 21 = 105
Case 2: Exactly 5 girls, 1 boy = C(5,5) × C(7,1) = 1 × 7 = 7
Total = 105 + 7 = 112 ways
P(at least 4 girls) = 112/924 = 0.121 (about 12.1%)

Hypergeometric Rule — The Key Principle Here:

When selecting from TWO distinct groups (boys and girls, red and blue balls, defective and good items),
multiply the combinations from each group:
Total ways = C(group 1, chosen from group 1) × C(group 2, chosen from
group 2)
For 'at least' problems, break it into cases and ADD them together.

4.4 Additive Laws of Probability

The additive laws deal with the probability of event A OR event B occurring. This is written P(A ∪ B) or P(A or B).

The Two Additive Laws:

Law 1 — General Addition Rule:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
We subtract P(A and B) to avoid counting the overlap twice.
Law 2 — For Mutually Exclusive Events:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) [when A and B cannot occur together]
When events are mutually exclusive, they have no overlap, so P(A and B) = 0.

Key Concepts for Additive Laws

Concept Explanation

Mutually Exclusive Events Events that CANNOT happen at the same time. They
have no outcomes in common. Example: rolling a 2
and rolling a 5 (can't get both on one roll)

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events that CAN overlap — they share at least one
outcome. Example: rolling an EVEN number or rolling
a number > 3 (the 4 and 6 are in both)

Complementary Events A and A^c together cover the entire sample space.
P(A^c) = 1 - P(A)

Union A ∪ B 'A or B' — all outcomes in A, or B, or both

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Intersection A ∩ B 'A and B' — outcomes that are in BOTH A and B

simultaneously

Example — Additive Laws with a Die

Problem:
A fair die is rolled. Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Define:
A = even numbers = {2, 4, 6} B = multiples of 3 = {3, 6}
Find (a) P(A or B) (b) P(A^c)

Solution (a): A and B are NOT mutually exclusive — they share the outcome {6}.
P(A) = 3/6 = 1/2 P(B) = 2/6 = 1/3 P(A and B) = 1/6 [only {6} is in
both]
P(A or B) = 1/2 + 1/3 - 1/6 = 3/6 + 2/6 - 1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3

Solution (b): A^c = NOT an even number = {1, 3, 5}

P(A^c) = 1 - P(A) = 1 - 3/6 = 3/6 = 1/2

Venn Diagram Tip:

Always draw a Venn diagram for Additive Law problems! Draw two overlapping circles (for non-mutually
exclusive events) or two separate circles (for mutually exclusive events). List the outcomes in each region.
This prevents double-counting errors.

4.5 Multiplicative Laws of Probability

The multiplicative laws deal with the probability of event A AND event B both occurring. This is written P(A ∩ B)
or P(A and B).

4.5.1 Independent vs Dependent Events

Independent Events Dependent Events

Definition The occurrence of one event does NOT affect the

probability of the other

Definition (dep) The occurrence of one event CHANGES the

probability of the other

Example Drawing a ball WITH replacement — putting it back

means the next draw has the same probabilities

Example (dep) Drawing a ball WITHOUT replacement — the ball is

NOT returned, so the next draw has different

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probabilities

The Multiplicative Laws:

Law 1 — Independent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
The joint probability is simply the product of individual probabilities.
Law 2 — Dependent Events (Conditional Probability):
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A)
P(B|A) reads as 'the probability of B GIVEN that A has already occurred'.
General Conditional Probability Formula:
P(B|A) = P(A and B) / P(A) [provided P(A) ≠ 0]

Example 10 — Balls With and Without Replacement

Problem:
A box contains 6 balls: 2 red and 4 blue. Two balls are drawn successively. Find the probability that both balls
are red, using:
4. WITHOUT replacement
5. WITH replacement

Part (a): Without Replacement (Dependent Events)

The sample space on the first draw: 6 balls (2 red, 4 blue). After drawing the first ball, it is NOT put back, so 5
balls remain.
P(1st ball is Red) = 2/6 = 1/3
P(2nd ball is Red | 1st was Red) = 1/5 [only 1 red remains out of 5
total]
P(both Red) = P(R1) × P(R2|R1) = 1/3 × 1/5 = 1/15 ≈ 0.067

Part (b): With Replacement (Independent Events)

The ball is returned after the first draw, so the composition of the box DOES NOT change.
P(1st ball is Red) = 2/6 = 1/3
P(2nd ball is Red) = 2/6 = 1/3 [same as before — ball was replaced]
P(both Red) = P(R1) × P(R2) = 1/3 × 1/3 = 1/9 ≈ 0.111

Key Insight:
P(both red) is HIGHER with replacement than without replacement. This makes sense — returning the red
ball gives you another chance, whereas without replacement, drawing one red ball makes the second red ball
harder to get.

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Testing for Independence

How to Test if A and B are Independent:
Two events A and B are independent IF AND ONLY IF:
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
If this equation holds, the events are independent. If not, they are dependent.
Equivalently:
P(B|A) = P(B) means A occurring does not change the probability of B

4.5.2 Contingency Tables

A contingency table (also called a cross-tabulation) displays data for two categorical variables simultaneously.
Each cell shows the count of observations that fall into both categories. They are extremely useful for computing
joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities.

Reading a Contingency Table:

• Marginal probability: P(A) = Total in row A / Grand Total
• Joint probability: P(A and B) = Cell value / Grand Total
• Conditional probability: P(A|B) = P(A and B) / P(B) = Cell value / Row or Column Total

Example 11 — Smoking and Lung Cancer

Problem:
Use the contingency table to answer probability questions about smoking and lung cancer.

Lung Cancer (B) Other Disease (C) Total

Smokers (A) 15 25 40

Nonsmokers (not A) 5 55 60

Total 20 80 100

Questions and Solutions:

(a) P(subject is a smoker)

P(A) = Total Smokers / Grand Total = 40/100 = 0.40

(b) P(subject is a smoker AND has lung cancer) [Joint Probability]

P(A and B) = Cell(Smoker, Lung Cancer) / Grand Total = 15/100 = 0.15

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(c) P(subject is a nonsmoker GIVEN they have lung cancer) [Conditional Probability]
P(not A | B) = P(not A and B) / P(B) = (5/100) / (20/100) = 5/20 = 0.25
Or directly: of the 20 people with lung cancer, 5 are non-smokers → 5/20 = 0.25

(d) Are A (Smoker) and B (Lung Cancer) independent?

Check if P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B):
P(A) × P(B) = (40/100) × (20/100) = 0.40 × 0.20 = 0.08
P(A and B) = 0.15 ≠ 0.08
Since 0.15 ≠ 0.08, events A and B are NOT independent — they are DEPENDENT. This means smoking is
associated with lung cancer (they are not independent of each other).

Statistical Caution:
Finding statistical dependence (P(A and B) ≠ P(A)×P(B)) tells us the events are associated, NOT that one
CAUSES the other. This is a statistical finding only — further research is needed to establish causation.

4.6 Bayes' Theorem

Bayes' Theorem is one of the most powerful and important results in probability. It allows us to REVERSE a
conditional probability — given that we know the outcome, it lets us work backwards to find the probability of
the cause.

Ordinary conditional probability: P(B|A) — Given we know A happened, what is P(B)?

Bayes' Theorem: P(A|B) — Given we know the OUTCOME B, what is P(A was the CAUSE)?

The Total Probability Formula (needed for Bayes):

If A1 and A2 are two mutually exclusive, exhaustive events (they cover all possibilities):
P(B) = P(B|A1) × P(A1) + P(B|A2) × P(A2)
This says: the total probability of B occurring is the sum of: (probability B occurs given cause A1, weighted by
probability of A1) PLUS (probability B occurs given cause A2, weighted by probability of A2).
Bayes' Theorem:
P(A1|B) = [P(B|A1) × P(A1)] / P(B)
= [P(B|A1) × P(A1)] / [P(B|A1)×P(A1) + P(B|A2)×P(A2)]

Example 12 — Two Boxes and a Coin (Introducing Bayes)

Problem:
Two boxes: Box 1 has 2 Red and 1 Blue. Box 2 has 1 Red and 3 Blue. A coin is tossed — Heads: draw from Box
1; Tails: draw from Box 2.
Part 1:
Find P(Red ball is drawn).

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Part 2 (Bayes):
Given that a Red ball was drawn, what is P(it came from Box 1)?

Step-by-Step Bayes Solution

1 Define events:
A1 = Box 1 is selected, A2 = Box 2 is selected
B = Red ball is drawn
Since coin is fair: P(A1) = 1/2, P(A2) = 1/2

2 Find conditional probabilities:

P(B|A1) = P(Red | Box 1) = 2/3
[Box 1 has 2 Red out of 3 total]
P(B|A2) = P(Red | Box 2) = 1/4
[Box 2 has 1 Red out of 4 total]

3 Apply Total Probability Formula (Part 1):

P(B) = P(B|A1)×P(A1) + P(B|A2)×P(A2)
P(B) = (2/3)(1/2) + (1/4)(1/2)
P(B) = 2/6 + 1/8 = 8/24 + 3/24 =
11/24 ≈ 0.458

4 Apply Bayes' Theorem (Part 2):

P(A1|B) = [P(B|A1) × P(A1)] / P(B)
P(A1|B) = [(2/3)(1/2)] / (11/24)
P(A1|B) = (1/3) / (11/24) = (1/3) ×
(24/11) = 24/33 = 8/11 ≈ 0.727

Interpreting the Bayes Result:

Before drawing: P(Box 1 was selected) = 0.5 (50/50 coin flip).
After we see a Red ball: P(came from Box 1) = 8/11 ≈ 72.7%.
The red ball is EVIDENCE that Box 1 was selected, because Box 1 has more red balls (2 out of 3) than Box 2 (1
out of 4). Seeing a red ball updates our belief that Box 1 was the source.
This is the essence of Bayes' Theorem: new evidence updates prior probabilities.

Example 13 — Same Setup: P(Box 2 | Blue Ball)

Problem:
Using the same setup from Example 12, what is the probability that Box 2 was selected, given that the ball
drawn is Blue?

Let B' = Blue ball is drawn. We need P(A2 | B').

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P(B'|A1) = 1/3 [Box 1 has 1 Blue out of 3]

P(B'|A2) = 3/4 [Box 2 has 3 Blue out of 4]
P(B') = P(B'|A1)×P(A1) + P(B'|A2)×P(A2)
P(B') = (1/3)(1/2) + (3/4)(1/2) = 1/6 + 3/8 = 4/24 + 9/24 = 13/24
P(A2|B') = [P(B'|A2) × P(A2)] / P(B')
P(A2|B') = [(3/4)(1/2)] / (13/24)
P(A2|B') = (3/8) / (13/24) = (3/8) × (24/13) = 72/104 = 9/13 ≈ 0.692

Interpretation:
When a Blue ball is drawn, P(Box 2) rises from 50% to 69.2%. This makes sense — Box 2 has mostly blue balls
(3 out of 4), so a blue outcome is evidence in favour of Box 2.

Using a Tree Diagram for Bayes' Theorem

A tree diagram is the clearest visual tool for Bayes' Theorem problems. Here is how to set one up:
Tree Diagram Steps

1 Start with the PRIOR probabilities — the initial

probabilities of each cause (Box 1 or Box 2, in our
example). Draw one branch for each possible cause.

2 From each cause branch, draw branches for each

possible outcome (Red or Blue). Label these
branches with the CONDITIONAL probabilities
P(outcome | cause).

3 Multiply along each path to get the JOINT probability

for each path: P(cause AND outcome) = P(cause) ×
P(outcome | cause).

4 To find the TOTAL probability of an outcome: ADD

the joint probabilities for all paths that lead to that
outcome. This is the Total Probability Formula.

5 To apply Bayes' Theorem: divide the specific path's

joint probability by the total probability of the
outcome.

Complete Summary: All Probability Laws at a Glance

Topic Formula When to Use

Basic Probability P(A) = n(A)/n(S) Finding P of an event with equally

likely outcomes

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Complementary Event P(A^c) = 1 - P(A) When it's easier to find P(NOT

happening)

Addition (General) P(A or B) = P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B) Any 'or' problem

Addition (Mutually Excl.) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Events that cannot occur together

Multiplication (Indep.) P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B) 'And' problems where events are
independent

Multiplication (Dep.) P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B|A) 'And' problems with dependent
events

Conditional Probability P(B|A) = P(A and B)/P(A) Probability of B, given A already

happened

Total Probability P(B) = P(B|A1)P(A1)+P(B|A2)P(A2) Finding overall probability from

multiple causes

Bayes' Theorem P(A1|B) = P(B|A1)P(A1)/P(B) Working backwards from outcome

to cause

Permutation P(n,r) = n!/(n-r)! Ordered arrangements of r from n

objects

Combination C(n,r) = n!/[r!(n-r)!] Unordered selections of r from n

objects

Hypergeometric C(g1,k1) × C(g2,k2) / C(total,k) Selecting from two distinct groups

Common Mistakes to Avoid

• With vs Without Replacement: Always check! With replacement = independent events; Without
replacement = dependent events.
• Double-counting in 'or' problems: ALWAYS subtract P(A and B) unless the events are mutually
exclusive.
• Confusing P(A|B) with P(B|A): These are DIFFERENT! P(lung cancer | smoker) ≠ P(smoker | lung
cancer). Bayes' Theorem converts between them.
• Permutation vs Combination: If order matters, use P(n,r). If order doesn't matter, use C(n,r). Always
ask: would swapping two selected items make a different outcome?
• Forgetting 0! = 1: When computing C(n,n) or C(n,0), you need 0! = 1. Don't leave these as errors.
• Confusing 'at least' with 'exactly': 'At least 4 girls' means 4 OR 5 OR more girls. Break into separate
cases and add.
• 'Independence' does not mean 'mutually exclusive': Mutually exclusive events CANNOT be
independent (if A happens, B cannot — knowing A changes P(B)). These are opposite concepts!

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Practice Problems
Problem 1 (Combination):
A committee of 4 is to be selected from 6 men and 5 women. In how many ways can this be done if the
committee must have at least 2 women?
Answer: C(5,2)×C(6,2) + C(5,3)×C(6,1) + C(5,4)×C(6,0) = 150+100+25 = 275

Problem 2 (Additive Law):

P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.5, P(A and B) = 0.15. Find P(A or B) and P(A^c and B^c).
Answers: P(A or B) = 0.65; P(A^c and B^c) = 1 - P(A or B) = 0.35

Problem 3 (Bayes):
A factory has 3 machines producing bolts. Machine A produces 50% of bolts, B produces 30%, C produces
20%. Defect rates: A = 2%, B = 3%, C = 5%. A randomly selected bolt is defective. What is the probability it
came from Machine C?
Answer: P(defective) = 0.5×0.02+0.3×0.03+0.2×0.05 = 0.01+0.009+0.01 = 0.029. P(C|defective) = 0.01/0.029 =
0.345

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