A GLOBAL REPORT

REDUCING DISASTER RISK

A CHALLENGE FOR DEVELOPMENT

United Nations Development Programme

Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery
[Link]/bcpr
 REDUCING DISASTER RISK: A CHALLENGE FOR DEVELOPMENT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Some 75 percent of the world’s population live in areas affected at least once
by earthquake, tropical cyclone, flood or drought between 1980 and 2000.
The consequences of such widespread exposure to natural hazard for
human development is only now beginning to be identified. Reducing Disaster
Risk: A Challenge for Development plays a role in this learning process.
Natural disaster risk is intimately connected to processes of human
development. Disasters put development at risk. At the same time, the
development choices made by individuals, communities and nations can generate
new disaster risk. But this need not be the case. Human development can
also contribute to a serious reduction in disaster risk.
This Report shows that billions of people in more than 100 countries are
periodically exposed to at least one event of earthquake, tropical cyclone,
flood or drought. As a result of disasters triggered by these natural hazards,
more than 184 deaths per day are recorded in different parts of the world.
This Report demonstrates that development processes intervene in the
translation of physical exposure into natural disaster events. This is demonstrated
by the observation that while only 11 percent of the people exposed to
natural hazards live in countries classified as low human development,
they account for more than 53 percent of total recorded deaths.
The Report argues that disaster risk is not inevitable and offers examples
of good practice in disaster risk reduction that can be built into ongoing
development planning policy. These examples are summarised in this
Executive Summary.

1 Development at Risk
Meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is
severely challenged in many countries by losses from disasters.
The destruction of infrastructure and the erosion of livelihoods are direct
outcomes of disaster. But disaster losses interact with and can also aggravate

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 REDUCING DISASTER RISK: A CHALLENGE FOR DEVELOPMENT

other financial, political, health and environmental which at present rewards productive specialisation and
shocks. Such disaster losses may setback social intensification over diversity and sustainability.
investments aiming to ameliorate poverty and hunger,
provide access to education, health services, safe housing, Can development planning
drinking water and sanitation, or to protect the incorporate disaster risk?
environment as well as the economic investments that The frequency with which some countries experience
provide employment and income. natural disaster should certainly place disaster risk at
the forefront of development planners’ minds. This
A considerable incentive for rethinking agenda differentiates between two types of disaster
disaster risk comes from the goals laid out risk management. Prospective disaster risk management
in the Millennium Declaration. should be integrated into sustainable development
The MDGs direct development planning towards planning. Development programmes and projects
priority goals. Each of these goals interacts with need to be reviewed for their potential to reduce or
disaster risk. These goals will potentially contribute to aggravate vulnerability and hazard. Compensatory
a reduction of human vulnerability to natural hazard. disaster risk management (such as disaster preparedness
But it is the processes undertaken in meeting each
and response) stands alongside development planning
goal that will determine the extent to which disaster
and is focused on the amelioration of existing
risk is reduced. This implies a two-way relationship
vulnerability and reduction of natural hazard that has
between the kind of development planning that
accumulated through past development pathways.
can lead to the achievement of the MDGs and the
Compensatory policy is necessary to reduce contemporary
development processes that are currently associated
risk, but prospective policy is required for medium- to
with an accumulation of disaster risk.
long-term disaster risk reduction.
The primary responsibility for achieving MDGs
lies with individual countries. New windows for Bringing disaster risk reduction and
environmental sustainability have been discussed at development concerns closer together
the World Summit on Sustainable Development, held requires three steps:
in Johannesburg, South Africa in 2002. For example, a. The collection of basic data on disaster risk
Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers need to take disaster and the development of planning tools to track
risk and environmental sustainability into account. the relationship between development policy
Bringing disasters and development together also requires and disaster risk.
a better integration between the humanitarian and b. The collection and dissemination of best practice
development communities. in development planning and policy that reduce
disaster risk.
How can development increase disaster risk? c. The galvanising of political will to reorient both
There are many examples of the drive for economic the development and disaster management sectors.
growth and social improvement generating new disaster
risks. Rapid urbanisation is an example. The growth of
informal settlements and inner city slums, whether
fuelled by international migration or internal migration
2 International Patterns of Risk
from smaller urban settlements or the countryside, has
led to the growth of unstable living environments. UNDP has begun development of a
These settlements are often located in ravines, on Disaster Risk Index (DRI) in order to improve
steep slopes, along flood plains or adjacent to noxious understanding of the relationship between
or dangerous industrial or transport facilities. development and disaster risk.
The findings of the DRI project, presented in this
Rural livelihoods are put at risk by the local impacts of Report, enable the measurement and comparison
global climate change or environmental degradation. of relative levels of physical exposure to hazard,
Coping capacity for some people has been undermined vulnerability and risk between countries and the
by the need to compete in a globalising economy, identification of vulnerability indicators.

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 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Four natural hazard types (earthquake, tropical cyclone, year to catastrophic flooding. Many more people are
flood and drought), responsible for 94 percent of deaths exposed to minor or localised flood hazards that can
triggered by natural disaster were examined and the have a cumulative dampening impact on development,
populations exposed and the relative vulnerability of but do not cause major human losses in single events.
countries to each hazard were calculated. They were not included in this assessment. High
vulnerability was identified in a wide range of coun-
In the last two decades, more than 1.5 million tries and is likely to be aggravated by global climate
people have been killed by natural disasters. change. In Venezuela, high vulnerability was due to a
Human deaths are the most reliable measure of single catastrophic event. Other countries with high
human loss and are the indicator used in this Report. vulnerability to floods included Somalia, Morocco
However, as with any economic data, this reveals only and Yemen.
the tip of the iceberg in terms of development losses
and human suffering. Worldwide, for every person Drought: Around 220 million people were found to
killed, about 3,000 people are exposed to natural hazards. be exposed annually to drought and African states
were indicated as having the highest vulnerability to
In global terms and for the four hazard types assessed, drought. Methodological challenges prevent any firm
disaster risk was found to be considerably lower in country-specific findings being presented for this
high-income countries than in medium- and low- hazard. The assessment strongly reinforced field study
income countries. Countries classified as high human evidence that the translation of drought into famine is
development countries represent 15 percent of the exposed mediated by armed conflict, internal displacement,
population, but only 1.8 percent of the deaths. HIV/AIDS, poor governance and economic crisis.

Earthquake: About 130 million people were found to For each hazard type, smaller countries had consistently
be exposed on average every year to earthquake risk as higher relative exposure to hazard and in the case
defined in this Report. High relative vulnerability of tropical cyclones, this was translated into high
(people killed/exposed) was found in countries such as relative vulnerability.
the Islamic Republic of Iran, Afghanistan and India.
Other medium development countries with sizeable What are the development factors
and underlying processes that
urban populations, such as Turkey and the Russian
configure disaster risks?
Federation, were also found to have high relative
The analysis of socio-economic variables, available with
vulnerability, as well as countries such as Armenia and
international coverage, and recorded disaster impacts,
Guinea that had experienced an exceptional event in
enabled some initial associations between specific
the reporting period.
development conditions and processes with disaster
risk. This work was undertaken for earthquake, tropical
Tropical cyclone: Up to 119 million people were
cyclone and flood hazard.
found to be exposed on average every year to tropical
cyclone hazard and some people experienced an average Earthquake: Countries with high urban growth rates
of more than four events every year. High relative and high physical exposure were associated with high
vulnerability was found in Bangladesh, Honduras and levels of risk.
Nicaragua, all of which had experienced a catastrophic
disaster during the reporting period. Other countries Tropical cyclone: Countries with a high percentage of
with substantial populations located on coastal plains arable land and high physical exposure were associated
were found to be highly vulnerable, for example India, with high levels of risk.
Philippines and Viet Nam. Small Island Developing
States (SIDS) represent a high-risk group of countries. Flood: Countries with low Gross Domestic Product
But comparing within this group pulls out differences, (GDP) per capita, low local density of population
for example, between the relatively high vulnerability of and high physical exposure were associated with high
Haiti and the lower vulnerability of Cuba and Mauritius. levels of risk.

Flood: About 196 million people in more than 90 These findings had very high degrees of statistical
countries were found to be exposed on average every significance and highlight the importance of urbanisation

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 REDUCING DISASTER RISK: A CHALLENGE FOR DEVELOPMENT

and rural livelihoods as development contexts that critical dynamic pressure likely to shape the future
shape disaster risk. Consequently, further analysis was characteristics of these variables was also examined.
structured around these two development factors. For urbanisation, we analysed economic globalisation,
and for rural livelihoods, we analysed global climate
If disaster risks are to be managed and change. In addition, a number of additional important
reduced, change in development policy and development pressures — violence and armed conflict,
planning is required at the national level. the changing epidemiology of disease (HIV/AIDS),
More effort should be given to the collection of sub- governance and social capital — did not have datasets
national disaster data. This will help build datasets and of the necessary coverage and quality to be included in
indicators with a national level of observation and a the DRI at the time of its calculation, and so are
local scale of resolution that can enable the visualisation included to provide a stronger qualitative analysis.
of complex patterns of local risk. For example, the
accumulation of risk over time, in specific locations, During this decade, population increase
and when catastrophic hazard events trigger multiple will occur most rapidly in urban areas in the
secondary hazards and numerous small-scale disasters. countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America and
This kind of information is important for factoring the Caribbean, with more than half of the world
disaster risk considerations into development policy population becoming urban by 2007.
at the national level. Locally specific data can also The average size of the world’s 100 largest cities
highlight the ways in which natural and man-made increased from 2.1 million in 1950 to 5.1 million in
hazards (such as house fires) interact, allowing further 1990. The complexity and sheer scale of humanity
refinement of policy. concentrated into large cities creates a new intensity of
risk and risk-causing factors, but it is in small- and
A multi-hazard DRI is an achievable task. medium-sized towns that the majority of the urban
The multi-hazard model is built from the socio- population live. Smaller cities contribute less pollution
economic variables associated with individual hazards. to global climate change, but show high levels of
The multi-hazard DRI is innovative in breaking away internal environmental pollution and risk. Therefore,
from a hazard-centred analysis of risk to one that has urbanisation is a real challenge for planning and for
integrated analysis of risk that draws on vulnerability the ability of the market to provide basic needs that
factors. There is scope in the model for the better can allow development without creating preventable
integration of vulnerability variables (such as armed disaster risks.
conflict) and hazards (such as volcanoes and landslides)
as data becomes available. Future work should also Urbanisation does not necessarily have to lead
seek to incorporate an assessment of the extent to to increasing disaster risk and can actually,
which national policy has included risk reduction and if managed properly, help reduce it.
the impacts of such policy on disaster risk. Finally, it is There are a number of factors that contribute to the
hoped that the global multi-hazard DRI will pave the configuration of risk in cities. First, history is important.
way for national level studies that combine disaster For example; where cities have been founded in or
and socio-economic information. expanded into hazardous locations. Second, the
urbanisation process leads to the concentration of
populations in risk-prone cities, and risk-prone locations
within cities. This is true in megacities and in rapidly
3 Development: expanding small- and medium-sized urban centres.
Working to Reduce Risk? When populations expand faster than the capacity of
urban authorities or the private sector to supply housing
For many people across the globe, development does or basic infrastructure, risk in informal settlements can
not appear to be working. The increasing number and accumulate quickly. Third, in cities with transient or
intensity of disasters with a natural trigger are one way migrant populations, social and economic networks
in which this crisis is manifest. tend to be loose. Many people, especially minority or
groups of low social status, can become socially
Two key variables were associated with disaster risk in excluded and politically marginalised, leading to a lack
the DRI: urbanisation and rural livelihoods. For each, a of access to resources and increased vulnerability. The

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 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

urban poor are often forced to make difficult decisions vulnerability reduction in development. Working to
about risk. Living in hazardous locations is sometimes reduce inequality and vulnerability within the context
‘chosen’ if it provides access to work, for example; in of a globalising economy requires strong international,
the city centre. national and local governance.

Urbanisation can also modify hazard patterns. Rural livelihoods: About 70 percent
Through process of urban expansion, cities transform of the world’s poor live in rural areas.
their surrounding environment and generate new There is great variety in the structure of rural
risks. The urbanisation of watersheds can modify economies and societies and their interaction with the
hydraulic regimes and destabilize slopes, increasing environment. However, there are recurrent themes
flood and landslide hazard. that characterise how development shapes risk in the
countryside. Rural poverty is one of the key factors
As centres of cultural value expressed through the that shapes risk to hazards such as a flooding or
man-made environment, cities are also sites where the drought. The rural poor, who are most at risk, are often
collective quality of life can be undermined if historic no longer subsistence peasants. Instead, rural dwellers
buildings are lost to disaster. depend on complex livelihood strategies, including seasonal
migration or inputs from remittances sent from relatives
Urbanisation also has the power to radically shape living in cities or overseas. These new survival strategies
disaster risks at the regional scale. Major investments are reconfiguring risk in the countryside.
in infrastructure and productive facilities, the development
of new urban areas and trade corridors, and the Often the poorest in rural areas occupy the most marginal
unplanned urbanisation of new regions are all lands and this forces people to rely on precarious and
examples of modalities through which urbanisation highly vulnerable livelihoods in areas prone to
can shape risk in broad territorial areas. drought, flooding and other hazards. Local ecological
and environmental change as a consequence of agri-
Urbanisation is affected by dynamic cultural practices can itself create risk. For example,
pressures, such as economic globalisation. deforestation to make way for agricultural production
Globalisation and the growing interconnectedness of often leads to soil erosion, loss of nutrients and
global society means that catastrophic events in one eventually, the marginality of agriculture. In some
place have the potential to affect lives and public policies circumstances, these processes can lead directly to the
in distant locations. At the same time, globalisation also generation of new patterns of flood, drought, fire or
has the power to shape new local economic relationships landslide hazard.
and subsequent geographies of risk. Given that the
decisions that generate such conditions (such as free For the majority of rural communities connected
trade agreements) are taken at the international level and to the global economy, livelihoods are vulnerable to
without detailed knowledge and data of the territories fluctuations in world commodity prices. When low
potentially affected, it is uncommon that existing risk commodity prices coincide with natural hazards, rural
patterns are taken into account. livelihoods come under high stress. However, those
rural communities isolated from the wider market are
Economic globalisation can provide opportunities for not necessarily any less at risk. Instead, the pathways
the enhancement of livelihoods and the quality of life through which risk is configured are different. In
for those people and places benefiting from new particular, isolation tends to limit choices for any
investments. To prevent these investments from creating coping strategy.
large inequalities and further polarising the world into
those who are at risk and those who are not, the Rural livelihoods are affected by dynamic
opportunities and benefits of globalisation need to be pressures such as global climate change.
shared much more widely. The introduction of Poverty Global climate change brings with it long-term shifts
Reduction Strategy Papers as coherent guidelines for in mean weather conditions and the possibility of the
national development planning offers a tool for increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather
enhancing the place of equity for poverty and events — the latter is perhaps more threatening to

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 REDUCING DISASTER RISK: A CHALLENGE FOR DEVELOPMENT

agricultural livelihoods. Taken together, the effects of Little or no attention has been paid to the potential of
climate change increase uncertainty and the complexity disaster management as a tool for conflict prevention
of risk for everyone, including landless labourers, initiatives, in spite of some encouraging experiences.
small-scale farmers, wealthy agriculturists and people
whose livelihoods serve the rural economy. Epidemic diseases can be seen as disasters in their own
right. They also interact with human vulnerability and
While the developed nations of the world produce the natural disasters. There is a great deal of variation in the
majority of greenhouse gases, the burden of impact relationships between disease, disaster and development.
will be more severe on developing countries. They Hazard events such as flooding or temperature
have larger vulnerable populations, national economies increase in highland areas can extend the range of
dependent on agricultural production and are less vector-born diseases, such as malaria. HIV/AIDS and
equipped to deal with extreme weather events. other diseases can exacerbate the disaster risks brought
on by climate change, urbanisation, marginalisation
The lack of capacity to manage and adapt to climate- and war. With HIV/AIDS, the able-bodied, adult
related risks is already a central development issue in workforce who would normally engage in disaster-
many developing countries, particularly in Small coping activities is too weak from the disease. Or they
Island Development States. The lack of capacity to are already dead, leaving households composed of the
manage risks associated with current climate variability elderly and very young, who often lack labour capacity
will likely also inhibit countries from adapting to the future or knowledge.
complexity and uncertainty of global climate change.
Governance for disaster risk reduction has economic,
Finally, where the dynamics of global climate change political and administrative elements:
and economic globalisation are seen to interact, the ■ Economic governance includes the decision-making
shifting nature of hazard and disaster risk becomes process that affects a country’s economic activities
even more apparent and hard to predict. and its relationships with other economies.
■ Political governance is the process of decision-
If development is to be advanced in countries affected making to formulate policies including national
by climate risks and if development is not to aggravate disaster reduction policy and planning.
climate change risk, an integrated approach to local ■ Administrative governance is the system of policy
climate risk reduction needs to be promoted. implementation and requires the existence of well
Successful risk reduction approaches already practiced functioning organisations at the central and local
by the disaster risk community should be mainstreamed levels. In the case of disaster risk reduction, it
into national strategies and programmes. requires functioning enforcement of building codes,
land-use planning, environmental risk and human
Violence and armed conflict, vulnerability monitoring and safety standards.
disease, governance and social capital
are also important factors of risk. There is more to good governance than reorganising
These themes have not been included in the analysis the public sector or redividing the responsibilities between
of vulnerability factors in the DRI exercise because of different tiers of government. While governments
statistical constraints, but the themes are no less important. bear the primary responsibility with regard to the
right to safety and security, they cannot and should
During the 1990s, a total of 53 major armed conflicts not shoulder these tasks alone. At national and inter-
resulted in 3.9 million deaths. The analysis undertaken national levels, civil society is playing an ever more
in the DRI suggests that armed conflict and governance active role in forming policies to address risk. The
are factors that can turn low rainfall episodes, for private sector also has a role to play in moving towards
example, into famine events. This is particularly the sustainable development that incorporates an awareness
case in complex emergencies. At the turn of the 21st of disaster risk — a role that could be enhanced.
century, some countries suffered episodes of drought,
earthquake or volcanic eruption on top of years of armed This Report offers a number of case studies for good
conflict, causing a particularly acute humanitarian crisis. practice in governance for disaster risk reduction. Over

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 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

the last decade, the number of regional organisations Social capital refers to those stocks of social trust, norms
addressing risk management issues has grown. In and networks that people derive from membership in
addition to developing their own expertise and different types of social collectives. Social capital,
policy initiatives, regional organisations can provide measured by levels of trust, cooperation and reciprocity
continuity to help maintain national level progress in in a social group, plays the most important role in
development and disaster risk management. shaping actual resilience to disaster shocks and stress.
Local level community response remains the most
At the national level, mainstreaming disaster risk important factor enabling people to reduce and cope
reduction with development policy is a key challenge. with the risks associated with disaster. But community
The need for strong intervention following a disaster ties can be eroded by long-term or extreme social stress.
is recognised. The challenge now is to increase the
focus on disaster risk reduction as a central element of The appropriateness of policies for enhancing the
ongoing development policy. A more integrated positive contribution of civil society depends on
approach calls for collaboration between government developmental context. For many countries in Africa,
agencies responsible for land-use planning, development Latin America and Asia that have undergone structural
planning, agricultural and environmental planning and adjustment and participatory development, the challenge
education as well as those organisations responsible may not be so much the creation of a non-governmental
for disaster management. sector as its coordination.

This approach requires decentralised disaster risk

planning strategies that can empower communities 4 Conclusions
and open the window for local participation. The most and Recommendations
vulnerable in society are also often those most excluded
from community decision-making and in many cases This Report supports six emerging agendas within
this includes women. Enabling participation in these disaster risk reduction. These are summarised here.
circumstances requires a long-term commitment to social
development as part of vulnerability reduction programmes. 1. Appropriate governance is fundamental if risk
considerations are to be factored into development
The importance of a gendered perspective on risk and planning and if existing risks are to be success-
the opportunities raised by risk reduction for a gender- fully mitigated. Development needs to be regulated
sensitive approach to development can be seen from in terms of its impact on disaster risk. Perhaps
encouraging experiences of civil society groups active the greatest challenges for mainstreaming disaster
in risk reduction and disaster recovery. risk into development planning are political will
and geographical equity. These are problems
Within reforms, legislation often remains a critical shared through environmental management and
element in ensuring a solid ground for other focal environmental impact assessment. How to attribute
areas, such as institutional systems, sound planning responsibility for disaster risk experienced in one
and coordination, local participation and effective location that has been caused by actions in another
policy implementation. But the road of legal reform is location? Justifying expenditure in risk reduction
not easy and not always sufficient to facilitate change. will become easier as valuation techniques (including
Legislation can set standards and boundaries for the DRI) that are available for indicating the positive
action, for example, by defining building codes or contribution of risk reduction investments in
training requirements and basic responsibilities for development become more refined.
key actors in risk management. But legislation on its
own cannot induce people to follow these rules. 2. Factoring risk into disaster recovery and
Monitoring and enforcement are needed. reconstruction. Development appraisal and decision
making tools, and monitoring programmes that
In recent years the concept of social capital has provided incorporate disaster risk management are needed to
additional insights into the ways in which individuals, mainstream prospective disaster risk management.
communities and groups mobilise to deal with disasters. The argument made for mainstreaming disaster

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 REDUCING DISASTER RISK: A CHALLENGE FOR DEVELOPMENT

risk management is doubly important during which this Report hopes to make a contribution
reconstruction following disaster events. towards, a legacy of risk accumulation exists today
and there is a need to improve disaster preparedness
3. Integrated climate risk management. Building and response.
on capacities that deal with existing disaster risk is
an effective way to generate capacity to deal with 6. Addressing gaps in knowledge for disaster risk
future climate change risk. assessment. A first step towards more concerted
and coordinated global action on disaster risk
4. Managing the multifaceted nature of risk. reduction must be a clear understanding of the
Natural hazard is one among many potential
depth and extent of hazard, vulnerability and
threats to life and livelihood. Often those people
disaster loss.
and communities most vulnerable to natural hazards
are also vulnerable to other sources of hazard. For
Specific recommendations towards this end are to:
many, livelihood strategies are all about the playing
off of risks from multiple hazards sources — economic, a. Enhance global indexing of risk and vulnerability,
social, political, environmental. Disaster risk enabling more and better intercountry and inter-
reduction policy has to take this into account and regional comparisons.
look for opportunities for building generic as well b. Support national and subregional risk indexing to
as disaster risk specific capacities. enable the production of information for national
decision makers.
5. Compensatory risk management. In addition to c. Develop a multi-tiered system of disaster reporting.
reworking the disaster-development relationship, d. Support context driven risk assessment.