Spatio-temporal Extension of a Fear-Driven Predator–Prey Model
with Fractional Reproduction
Project Summary by Neisser Pino-Romero
Keywords: predator–prey systems, fear effect, fractional reproduction, reaction–diffusion
equations, stability analysis, numerical simulations
Predator–prey interactions constitute a fundamental component of ecosystem dynamics and play a
crucial role in biodiversity preservation and environmental sustainability. Beyond direct predation,
predators exert significant non-lethal effects on prey populations by inducing behavioral stress,
commonly referred to as the fear effect [2, 5]. This behavioral response alters prey reproduction,
foraging strategies, and population resilience, thereby influencing ecosystem stability even in the
absence of increased mortality [3]. In recent work, the applicant has developed and analyzed a
nonlinear predator–prey model formulated as a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), that
is, a time-dependent and spatially implicit framework that does not account for spatial heterogeneity
or population dispersal [6]. In this study, prey reproductive dynamics are governed by a fractional
logistic law whose exponent depends explicitly on predator density, thereby capturing fear-induced
inhibition mechanisms. The resulting nonlinear predator–prey model provides new insights into the
qualitative effects of non-lethal predation on population dynamics.
dx r xθ(y) βxy
− d xθ(y) − b xθ(y)+1 −
= ,
dt 1 + ky 1 + σx
dy αβxy
= − d1 y − b 1 y 2 ,
dt 1 + σx
where x(t) and y(t) denote the prey and predator densities, respectively, and the state-dependent
exponent
θ(y) = θ0 e−ρy , ρ > 0,
quantifies the intensity of fear-induced suppression of prey reproduction. This formulation captures
a key ecological mechanism: increasing predator pressure does not merely increase prey mortality
but actively suppresses prey reproductive capacity through behavioral stress. From a mathematical
perspective, the introduction of a variable fractional exponent leads to a highly nonlinear dynamical
system with nonstandard growth terms [3]. The time-only ODE model has been shown to be well
posed in the biologically feasible region, admitting positive and bounded solutions, and to exhibit
rich dynamical behavior, including the stabilization of coexistence equilibria through fear-mediated
feedback mechanisms [4, 6]. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of how indirect
predator effects can enhance ecosystem resilience [2]. Despite these advances, models formulated
exclusively in time are inherently limited in their ability to describe spatial heterogeneity, population
dispersal, and localized stress responses. Natural ecosystems are spatially structured environments
in which both prey and predator populations move across heterogeneous habitats, giving rise to
spatial gradients, aggregation phenomena, and pattern formation that cannot be captured within
an ODE framework. Consequently, a natural and necessary extension of the existing model is the
incorporation of spatial diffusion [7].
The central objective of the proposed project is therefore to extend the above time-dependent
predator–prey system to a fully spatiotemporal framework governed by partial differential equations
(PDEs), explicitly accounting for population dispersal and spatial heterogeneity [1]. Let u(t, x)
and v(t, x) denote the prey and predator densities, respectively, at time t > 0 and spatial position
1
x ∈ Ω ⊂ R2 , where Ω is a bounded domain with smooth boundary. The spatially extended model is
formulated as the following reaction–diffusion system:
∂u r uθ(v) βuv
− d uθ(v) − b uθ(v)+1 −
− Du ∆u = ,
∂t 1 + kv 1 + σu
x ∈ Ω, t > 0,
∂v αβuv
− Dv ∆v = − d1 v − b 1 v 2 ,
∂t 1 + σu
where Du , Dv > 0 are the diffusion coefficients associated with prey and predator movement,
respectively, and the fear-dependent reproductive exponent is given by
θ(v) = θ0 e−ρv , ρ > 0.
The system is complemented with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions, reflecting no-flux
across the habitat boundary, together with biologically admissible nonnegative initial data.
The incorporation of diffusion transforms the original model into a highly nonlinear reaction–diffusion
system with state-dependent growth mechanisms, giving rise to new and challenging mathematical
questions [1]. From a theoretical standpoint, the project will focus on establishing well-posedness
properties, including existence and uniqueness of solutions, positivity, and uniform boundedness in
appropriate functional spaces. In addition, the stability of spatially homogeneous equilibria will be
analyzed, with particular emphasis on diffusion-driven instabilities and the possible emergence of
spatiotemporal patterns induced by fear-mediated feedback mechanisms [6].
From a numerical perspective, the project will develop and analyze suitable discretization schemes
for the proposed system, combining finite element or finite difference methods in space with
stable time-integration techniques. Numerical simulations will be used to illustrate the theoretical
findings, explore transient dynamics, and assess the role of fear sensitivity and spatial heterogeneity
in shaping population distributions [2]. By advancing the mathematical understanding of how
non-lethal predator effects influence population dynamics across space and time, this research
contributes to broader societal objectives related to ecosystem stability, biodiversity conservation,
and sustainable management of natural resources [7].
Incorporating chemotaxis into ecological and eco-epidemiological models represents a natural and
mathematically relevant extension, as it allows the description of directed movement driven by
environmental or biological cues. In the context of the doctoral dissertation “Mathematical Analysis
of the Parabolic–Elliptic Coupling of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Chemotaxis”, currently
under review, chemotactic effects provide a rigorous framework to capture spatial aggregation,
pattern formation, and nonlocal interactions that cannot be described by diffusion alone. In
particular, the project aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, especially
SDG 15 (Life on Land), by providing rigorous theoretical insights into mechanisms that promote
coexistence, resilience, and spatial organization in ecological systems subject to environmental and
behavioral stress.
References
[1] Cantrell, R. S., & Cosner, C. (2003). Spatial Ecology via Reaction–Diffusion Equations. John
Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
[2] Cui, J., Takeuchi, Y., & Lin, Z. (2019). Dynamic behaviors of predator–prey systems with fear
effect. Journal of Differential Equations, 266(8), 4656–4692.
2
[3] Liu, X., & Wang, J. (2017). Stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis of a predator–prey model
with fear effect. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 14(4), 873–893.
[4] Pino-Romero, RN., López-Cruz, R., A mathematical analysis of an eco-epidemiological model
with prey-feedback effect and prey-refuge, Selecciones Matemáticas 12 (2025), 67-85.
[5] Romero-Ordoñez, M.A., Pérez-Nuñez, J.R., Pino-Romero, N., Mathematical Analysis of a
Predator–Prey Model Incorporating Prey Fear, Proyecciones (Antofagasta), 44(2025),561–599.
[6] Wang, X., Zanette, L., & Zou, X. (2016). Modelling the fear effect in predator–prey interactions.
Journal of Mathematical Biology, 73(5), 1179–1204.
[7] Zanette, L. Y., White, A. F., Allen, M. C., & Clinchy, M. (2010). Perceived predation risk
reduces the number of offspring songbirds produce per year. Science, 334(6061), 1398–1401.