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Reliability - Chapter 4

The document discusses Time-Dependent Failure Models, focusing on various probability distributions such as Weibull, Normal, and Lognormal. It provides mathematical formulations and insights into the characteristics of these distributions, including their reliability functions and effects of parameters. The document serves as a technical overview for understanding failure rates and reliability in maintenance management.

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easportccou
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3 views17 pages

Reliability - Chapter 4

The document discusses Time-Dependent Failure Models, focusing on various probability distributions such as Weibull, Normal, and Lognormal. It provides mathematical formulations and insights into the characteristics of these distributions, including their reliability functions and effects of parameters. The document serves as a technical overview for understanding failure rates and reliability in maintenance management.

Uploaded by

easportccou
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

31-Oct-23

Reliability and
Maintenance
Management Time-Dependent
Failure Models

Dr. Hazem Smadi

Time-Dependent Failure Models

Probability models used to describe non-constant failure rate


processes.
- Weibull distribution.
- Normal distribution.
- Lognormal distribution.
- Gamma distribution.
- Other failure time distributions.

1
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Weibull Distribution

Weibull Distribution

2
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Weibull Distribution
𝛽 −1 𝛽
𝛽 𝑡 𝑡
𝑓 𝑡 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −
𝜃 𝜃 𝜃

𝛽
𝑡
𝐹 𝑡 = 1 − 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −
𝜃

𝛽
𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 −
𝜃
𝛽 −1
𝛽 𝑡
ℎ 𝑡 =
𝜃 𝜃

Effects of  on Weibull Hazard Function

3
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Effects of  on Weibull Hazard Function

Effects of  on Weibull Hazard Function

4
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Effects of  on Weibull PDF

Effects of  on Weibull PDF

10

5
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Effects of  on Weibull Reliability function

11

Effects of  on Weibull Reliability function

12

6
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Weibull distribution - Scale parameter 

13

Effects of  on Weibull PDF

14

7
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Effects of  on Weibull Reliability function

15

Effects of  on Weibull Hazard function

16

8
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MTTF and Variance of Weibull distribution

17

Weibull distribution - Design Life, Median and Mode

1ൗ
𝐷𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝐿𝑖𝑓𝑒: 𝑡𝑅 = 𝜃(− ln 𝑅) 𝛽

1ൗ 1ൗ
𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛: 𝑡0.5 = 𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑 = 𝜃(− ln 0.5) 𝛽= 𝜃(0.69315) 𝛽

𝜃 (1 − 1Τ𝛽)1Τ𝛽 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝛽 > 1


𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒: 𝑡𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒 = ൝
0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝛽 ≤ 1

18

9
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Weibull distribution - Conditional Reliability


• Conditional reliability is useful in describing the reliability of an
item following a burn-in period or after a warranty period T0.
• For Weibull distribution, the conditional reliability is:
𝛽 𝛽
exp −[ 𝑡 + 𝑇0 Τ𝜃]𝛽 𝑡 + 𝑇0 𝑇0
𝑅 𝑡 𝑇0 ) = 𝛽
= exp − +
exp −(𝑇0 Τ𝜃) 𝜃 𝜃

𝑅 𝑡 𝑇0 ) = 𝑅 𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑡 𝑖𝑓 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑦 𝑖𝑓 𝑅 𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙.

19

Normal Distribution

20

10
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Normal Distribution - PDF

21

Normal Distribution – CDF and Reliability Function

22

11
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Normal Distribution – Hazard Function

23

Normal Distribution – Mean and Variance

24

12
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Normal Distribution – CDF, PDF, and Hazard Function

25

Normal Distribution – Central Limit Theorem

26

13
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Lognormal Distribution

27

Lognormal Distribution

28

14
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Lognormal Distribution

29

Lognormal Distribution

30

15
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Lognormal Distribution – CDF, PDF and Hazard Function

31

Lognormal Distribution – CDF, PDF and Hazard Function

32

16
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Lognormal Distribution
2
1 1 𝑡
𝑓 𝑡 = exp − 2 ln
2𝜋𝑠𝑡 2𝑠 𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑

1 𝑡
𝑅 𝑡 =1 − 𝜙 ln
𝑠 𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑

𝑠2
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹 = 𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑 ∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑝
2

𝜎 2 = 𝑡 2 𝑚𝑒𝑑 exp(𝑠 2 ) exp 𝑠 2 − 1

𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑑
𝑡𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒 =
exp(𝑠 2 )

33

17

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