PROBABILITY

Probability means chance. In simplest term, it is the chance of occurrence of a certain event when expressed
quantitatively.

Some Important Terms and Concepts

1. Random experiment: Any experiment whose outcome is not predictable in advance is called a random
experiment.
2. Outcome: The result of a random experiment is called an outcome.
3. Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes is called sample space of the random experiment. It is denoted
by S.
4. Trial: A particular performance of a random experiment is called trial.
5. Events: An outcome or combination of outcomes is called an event. It is a subset of the sample space.
6. Equally likely outcomes: Two or more outcomes are said to be equally likely if the occurrence of one cannot
be expected in preference to the other.
7. Mutually exclusive events: Two events A and B of a sample space S are said to be mutually exclusive if the
occurrence of one prevents the occurrence of the other i.e., they cannot occur simultaneously in the same trial.
In this case, A  B   & P  A  B   0
8. Independent events: Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one does
not affect the probability of occurrence of the other.

Algebra of events
(1) A  B means A or B or both (2) A  B means A and B (3) A or A means not A

MATHEMATICAL or CLASSICAL DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

If there are n mutually exclusive, equally likely and exhaustive outcomes of which m of them are favourable to an
event A, then the probability of occurrence of A is given by
Favourable number of outcomes for A m
P ( A)  
Total number of outcomes n
n( A )
If S is the sample space of a random experiment then by this definition, P ( A) 
n( S )
where n(A)=number of elements in the set A, n(S)=number of elements in the set S.

Properties of Probability

1. Probability of an event lies between 0 and 1 i.e., if A is an event, then 0  P ( A)  1

2. Probability of an impossible event is 0.

3. Probability of a sure event is 1.

4. P ( A)  P ( A)  1

Limitations of the Mathematical or Classical approach to probability

1. It fails when n, the total number of outcomes of a random experiment is infinite or not known in advance.

2. In most cases it may not be possible to enumerate all the outcomes of a random experiment.

3. The theory fails to compute the probability if the outcomes are not equally likely.

4. The definition is circular. The word ‘equally likely’, which mean equally probable, was used in the definition.
Addition Theorem of Probability

If A and B are two events of a sample space S then

Multiplication Theorem of Probability for independent events

If A and B are two events of a sample space S and P ( A)  0 & P ( B )  0 then A and B are independent if and only
if P ( A  B )  P ( A). P ( B )

Example 1
A coin is tossed twice. Find the sample space and the probability of getting
(i) exactly two tails
(ii) at least one head
(iii) no tail
(iv) at most one head

Solution
Let
Therefore, sample space is
Number of elements in is .

(i) Let .
From the sample space, the outcome favouring is . So, and .

Therefore,

(ii) Let .
From the sample space, the outcomes favouring are . So, and
.

Therefore,

(iii) Let .
From the sample space, the outcome favouring is . So, and .

Therefore,

(iv) Let .
From the sample space, the outcomes favouring are . So, and
.

Therefore,
Example 2
A coin is tossed three times. Find the sample space and the probability of getting
(i) exactly three tails
(ii) exactly one head
(iii) at least one tail
(iv) at most one head

Solution
Let
Therefore, sample space is
Number of elements in is .

(i) Let .
From the sample space, the outcome favouring is . So, and .

Therefore,

(ii) Let .
From the sample space, the outcomes favouring are . So,
and .

Therefore,

(iii) Let .
From the sample space, the outcomes favouring are .
So, and .

Therefore,

(iv) Let .
From the sample space, the outcomes favouring are .
So, and .

Therefore,

Example 3
A die is tossed once times. Find the sample space and the probability of getting
(i) an even number
(ii) an odd number
(iii) a prime number
(iv) a number divisible by 3

Solution
Sample space is
Number of elements in is .

(i) Let .
and .

Therefore,
(ii) Let .
and .

Therefore,

(iii) Let .
and .

Therefore,

(iv) Let .
and .

Therefore,

Example 4
A die is tossed twice. Find the sample space and the probability that
(i) the sum of the numbers is 9
(ii) the sum of the numbers is divisible by 3

Solution
Sample space is
Number of elements in is .

(i) Let .
and .

Therefore,

(ii) Let .
and
.

Therefore,