Section 3: Independent vs.
Dependent Events
Does the first event change the odds for the second?
Key Concepts
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does NOT affect the probability of the other.
Rolling a die twice is independent — the second roll doesn't care about the first.
Multiplication P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
Rule —
Independent
Two events are dependent if the outcome of the first DOES affect the probability of the second. Drawing
cards without replacement is dependent — after removing a card the deck changes.
Multiplication P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B | A)
Rule —
Dependent
Worked Example
A bag has 5 red and 3 blue chips. Two chips are drawn one at a time WITHOUT replacement. What is
the probability both are red?
Step 1 P(1st red) = 5/8
Step 2 After removing 1 red chip: 4 red remain, 7 total. P(2nd red | 1st red) = 4/7
Step 3 P(both red) = 5/8 × 4/7 = 20/56 = 5/14 ≈ 0.357
Practice Questions
Q1. A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. What is the probability of getting tails AND rolling a
3? State whether these events are independent or dependent.
Q2. A bag holds 4 green and 6 white balls. Two balls are drawn WITH replacement. What is
the probability both are green?
Q3. Using the same bag (4 green, 6 white), two balls are drawn WITHOUT replacement.
What is the probability both are green? Compare your answer to Question 2 and explain the
difference.
Q4. Two cards are drawn without replacement from a standard deck. What is the probability
both are aces?
Q5. A test has 3 true/false questions. A student guesses randomly on each question. What
is the probability of getting all 3 correct? Are the guesses independent or dependent?
Explain.
Section 4: Conditional Probability
Probability when you already know something happened
Key Concepts
Conditional probability is the probability of event A given that event B has already occurred. The '|'
symbol means 'given that'.
Conditional P(A | B) = P(A and B) ÷ P(B)
Probability
Formula
Knowing extra information 'shrinks' the sample space to only the outcomes where B occurred. We then
find which of those also include A.
Worked Example
In a class, 40% of students play soccer, 25% play both soccer and basketball. Given a student plays
soccer, what is the probability they also play basketball?
Identify P(soccer) = 0.40, P(soccer AND basketball) = 0.25
Apply P(basketball | soccer) = P(soccer and basketball) ÷ P(soccer)
Formula
Calculate P(basketball | soccer) = 0.25 ÷ 0.40 = 0.625 = 62.5%
Practice Questions
Q1. A die is rolled. Given that the result is even, what is the probability it is a 4? List the
reduced sample space and use the formula.
Q2. P(A) = 0.50, P(B) = 0.40, P(A and B) = 0.20. Find P(A | B) and P(B | A). Show all work.
Q3. In a group of 50 people, 30 drink coffee, 20 drink tea, and 10 drink both. Given that a
person drinks coffee, what is the probability they also drink tea?
Q4. A card is drawn from a standard deck. Given that the card is red, what is the probability
it is a heart? Explain why this makes intuitive sense.
Q5. Two dice are rolled. Given that the sum is greater than 9, what is the probability the sum
is exactly 11? (Hint: first list all outcomes where the sum > 9.)
Section 5: Two-Way Tables & Venn Diagrams
Organizing data to find probabilities quickly
Key Concepts
A two-way (contingency) table organizes data for two categorical variables. Row and column totals are
called marginal frequencies; the inner cells are joint frequencies.
A Venn diagram uses overlapping circles to show how events relate. The overlap (intersection) is 'A
and B'; the entire shaded region is 'A or B'; outside both circles is 'neither'.
Reading P(A) = row or column total ÷ grand total | P(A and B) = cell value ÷
Tables grand total | P(A | B) = cell value ÷ row/column total for B
Worked Example
Use the table below. 200 students were surveyed about whether they have a pet and whether they
have a sibling.
Has Sibling No Sibling Total
Has Pet 60 40 100
No Pet 70 30 100
Total 130 70 200
P(Has Pet | = 60 ÷ 130 ≈ 0.462 = 46.2% (look only in the 'Has Sibling' column)
Has Sibling)
Practice Questions
Use this table for Questions 1–4. 300 students were surveyed about sport preference and grade level.
Basketball Soccer Total
9th Grade 48 72 120
10th Grade 84 96 180
Total 132 168 300