MATHEMATICS

BEYOND THE CLASSROOM

FOR ADVANCED LEVEL P425/2

Nasurdin Mulumba

WITH CLOSE

Presented in 100
TO

A scenario based approach SCENARIOS

detail & THEIR
S RESPONSES
Nasurdin Mulumba
0704 256 478
Mathematics Beyond the Classroom for
Advanced Level

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P425/2

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A Scenario Based Approach

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Nasurdin Mulumba
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BSc EDUC
Makerere University

AZ Publishing Kampala (Ug)

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Preface

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Basing upon the the adjustment in the Advanced level curriculum, there was a need for learners and

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teachers to have a resource with at least specific learning activities and assessment items that are in line
with the syllabus and the aims of the education system.
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The book addresses the two learning objectives: AO4 and AO5 as stated in Subsection 1.5.1. The book
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focuses on Principal Mathematics for the Adapted Advanced level curriculum; P425/2 with the two
constructs: Data Analysis and Probability and Mechanics.
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Contents

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Title i

Preface

1 Introduction
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1
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1.1 Features of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 Purpose of the book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
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1.3 How to use the book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

1.4 What you need to know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
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1.5 Assessment of Principal Mathematics at Advanced Level . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

1.5.1 Assessment Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
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1.5.2 Structure of the Examination Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

1.5.3 Scoring Rubric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
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2 DATA ANALYSIS AND PROBABILITY 13

2.1 Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.2 Measures of Relationship; Scatter Graphs and Correlation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.3 Probability Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.4 Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.4.1 Discrete Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
2.4.2 Continuous Random Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

3 MECHANICS 59
3.1 Dynamics 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.2 Dynamics 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

Responses to the Items 87

Bibliography 183

vii
9 Assessment of Principal Mathematics at Advanced Level

Basis of As- SCORE 4 SCORE 3 SCORE 2 SCORE 1

sessment

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1. Interpre- Demonstrates comprehensive Demonstrates good Demonstrates Demonstrates
tation of the understanding by identifying 5-6 understanding by limited un- little (iden-
scenario and important variables/concepts: identifying 3-4 derstanding tifying only
task of the important by identify- 1 variable)

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• Normal distribu-
tion assumption: variables/concepts. ing 2 of the or no under-
T ∼ N(µ , σ 2 ) important standing of
• Given prob- variables/con- the task or
abilities: cepts. context.

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P(T > 6) = 0.20,
P(T < 4) = 0.10
• Z-score transfor-
mations needed
• Ratio interpreta-
tion: 2: 4: 1 for
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varieties A, B, C
• Individual ger-
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mination rates:
0.60, 0.50, 0.80
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• Required overall
germination rate:
≥ 65%
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2. Generating Demonstrates comprehensive Demonstrates good Demonstrates Demonstrates

and Presenting understanding by stating all or understanding by limited un- little under-
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ideas most (3-4) relevant mathematical stating some (2) derstanding standing
a) Generate approaches: relevant mathemati- by stating by stating
ideas that ad- • Normal distribu- cal approaches. few (1) rel- minimal or
dress the task tion equations: evant math- no relevant
6−µ ematical mathematical
σ = z0.20 ,
4−µ approaches. approaches.
σ = z0.10
• Z-score cal-
culations:
z0.20 = 0.8416,
z0.10 = −1.2816
• Total probability
theorem: P(G) =
∑ P(V )P(G|V )
• Ratio to probabil-
ity conversion

Table 1.3: Scoring Rubric for Item 47: Part 1

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

15 Descriptive Statistics

machine to add value to their product. For Item 3

maximum efficiency, the machine’s primary
A regional Community Development Organization
blade must be calibrated to the single most
in eastern Uganda has launched a “Youth Athlet-
dominant (most frequent) length of the har-
ics and Health Initiative.” The program aims to
vested fish. The cooperative will only approve

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nurture local athletic talent while concurrently as-
the purchase of this machine if this optimal
sessing the general physical development and nu-
calibration length is determined graphically
tritional needs of adolescents in the district.

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to be greater than 21.0 cm.

• Export Market Expansion: The cooperative Phase 1 of the initiative involves equipping a
newly formed elite track-and-field team. To plan

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aims to launch a “Premium Export” brand to
increase community dividends. This expan- the procurement of custom sports gear, the logis-
tics officer recorded the shoe sizes (in European
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sion will only be approved if a visual analy-
sis of the harvest’s continuous accumulation
trends predicts that the top 25% of the fish
sizing) of a pilot group of 12 athletes:

39, 37, 41, 43, 42, 41, 44, 42, 36, 42, 40, 43
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exceed 26.5 cm in length.
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Phase 2 involves a broader physical health assess-

You have been hired as the cooperative’s data ana- ment to lobby for a government nutritional grant.
lyst.
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The organization measured the heights of a wider

sample of 120 students from various community
schools. The data is recorded in Table 2.1:
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Tasks:
The organizations Board of Directors has es-
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Help the cooperative’s executive committee to; tablished the following operational criteria for
decision-making:
a) Ascertain whether they qualify to sign the pre-
• Equipment Procurement Policy: A sports
liminary supply contract with the local hotel
manufacturer offers a heavily subsidised bulk
chain.
package for shoes, but only if the spread cov-
ering the central 50% of the athletes’ shoe
b) Establish the required blade calibration set-
sizes is 3 sizes or less. To accurately budget
ting for the filleting machine, and advise
for any outliers, the finance committee also
whether the committee should proceed with
requires an analysis of the total absolute span
purchasing the machinery.
of all shoe sizes, as well as the average devia-
tion within that central core group.
c) Determine the viability of the premium export
market plan and propose strategic recommen- • Nutritional Grant Eligibility: The Ministry
dations for ensuring the long-term success of of Health will only approve the community’s
the community project. nutritional grant if the true average height of
the adolescents is proven to be strictly less
than 162 cm.

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

27 Measures of Relationship; Scatter Graphs and Correlation

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Farmer fertiliser Coffee yield (bags per

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ID Application acre)
(kg/acre)
1 10 15
2
3
4
25
15
30
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30
18
35
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5 20 25
6 5 12
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7 35 40
8 12 16
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9 28 32
10 18 20
11 40 45
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12 8 14
13 22 28
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14 32 38
15 17 22
16 29 34
17 11 17
18 38 42
19 6 13
20 55 48

Table 2.8

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

2. DATA ANALYSIS AND PROBABILITY 28

2.3 Probability Theory paign:

Item 15 • Policy I: To ensure robust on-ground support

in the central farming zone, if the proportion
The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and
of households failing to interact with AEOs ex-

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Fisheries (MAAIF) is preparing to launch an in-
ceeds 40%, the extension program must undergo
tensive community sensitization campaign in the
an immediate administrative overhaul.
Masaka district. The campaign aims to educate

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local farmers on cultivating a newly engineered, • Policy II: Farmers relying on only a single
drought-resistant coffee variety to boost regional source of information are deemed highly vul-
economic development. The planning committee nerable to agricultural misinformation. If this

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must urgently allocate a limited budget between vulnerable demographic exceeds 35% in the cen-
two primary information dissemination channels: tral farming zone, a supplementary mobile SMS-
Local Radio Broadcasts and on-ground Agricul-
tural Extension Officers (AEOs).
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• Policy III: For the hard-to-reach rural sub-

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To ensure effective resource distribution and maxi-
county, additional AEOs will only be deployed if
mize farmer outreach, the Ministry’s data analysts
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the current overall reach of the extension officers

have reviewed recent engagement metrics from
in that area falls below 40%.
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two distinct demographic zones.

A comprehensive study across the broader cen-

Task.
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tral farming zone revealed that 70% of households

currently tune in to the recommended agricultural
Assume the role of the Lead Data Analyst for the
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radio programs. The data also showed that 45% of

MAAIF. Analyse the engagement data to gener-
the households successfully engage with both the
ate a comprehensive advisory report. Your report
radio broadcasts and the AEOs, while 18% remain
should use statistical evidence to:
completely unreached by either channel.

However, the Ministry is particularly concerned(a) Evaluate the performance of the dissemination
about a hard-to-reach rural sub-county where a channels in the central farming zone against Pol-
localized pilot survey was conducted. The results icy I and Policy II. Advise the Ministry on the
there indicated a lower radio penetration, with only necessary systemic interventions required for
52% of households tuning in. Interestingly, the community development.
proportion of households relying solely on radio
(b) Assess the current overall reach of the AEOs
broadcasts—without any interaction with AEOs—
in the hard-to-reach rural sub-county. Deduce
was found to be 45%. Furthermore, 20% of the
whether additional officers must be deployed
households in this specific sub-county are entirely
under Policy III, providing a clear mathematical
isolated from both channels of agricultural updates.
justification for your recommendation.
The Ministry has established strict operational
thresholds to guide funding for the upcoming cam-

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

35 Random Variables

selection:

1. Operational Cost Factor: The projected ad-

ministrative cost (in tens of millions of UGX)
required to oversee the grants is modeled as

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being double the number of tech startups se-
lected, plus a baseline constant of 5.

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2. Portfolio Variability Index: To measure the
financial risk of the portfolio, the actuary uses
an index modelled by taking four times the

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square of the number of tech startups selected, Figure 2.1
and subtracting twice the number of tech star-
tups.
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The Board of Directors has issued a strict man-
date: They will only approve the random selection
velopment.
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method if the statistical dispersion (variance) of
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the Portfolio variability Index is strictly less than Item 23

35. Furthermore, they require a clear predictive
An engineering firm in Kampala’s industrial sector
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model of the costs and the distribution of the star-

operates a heavy-duty rolling mill to produce spe-
tups before they sign off.
cialised steel roofing coils, which are essential for
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an upcoming series of community housing devel-

Task opment projects (Figure 2.1).
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As the lead financial data analyst, prepare an inte- Based on historical operational data and machine
grated predictive report for the Board of Directors setup times from the previous quarter, the number
to solve their decision-making dilemma. Using the of successful steel batches rolled and processed per
provided information, your report must: day varies. The historical probability of producing
• Develop a clear visual and numerical statisti- exactly 1, 2, 3, or 4 batches during a standard
cal model representing all possible outcomes daily shift are 27 , 17 , 14
5 3
, and 14 , respectively. The
of the tech startup selection and their respec- plant manager must analyse this production data
tive likelihoods. to optimize efficiency, manage financial risks, and
ensure the community housing projects are not
• Analyse the predicted operational costs of the
delayed by material shortages.
pilot program.
The firm’s operations are governed by the follow-
• Evaluate the investment risk by determining
ing parameters:
the exact dispersion of the Portfolio variabil-
ity Index, and subsequently advise the Board • Financial Contracts: The firm has a distribu-
on whether they should approve or veto the tion contract for the housing project that pays
random selection strategy for community de- a fixed daily retainer of 2 million UGX, plus

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

 3

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MECHANICS

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3.1 Dynamics 1

Item 49
M large Mvule tree branch that has completely fallen
across the road, blocking the path exactly 65 m
ahead. The driver immediately engages the emer-
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gency braking system, which is mechanically de-
A rural district council recently upgraded its main
signed to apply a constant deceleration of 5 m s−2 .
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arterial road to improve emergency response times

for the local community hospital. However, the
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smooth new surface has raised concerns about high- Task:

speed driving through populated areas. To evalu-
As the transport safety analyst consulting for the
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ate the safety and performance of the district’s

district council, evaluate the ambulance’s remote
newly acquired heavy-duty ambulance, a continu-
monitoring and braking data to provide a compre-
ous tracking audit is conducted during a trial run.
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hensive safety assessment. Your analysis must:

Remote monitoring data from a straight stretch of
1. Determine the vehicle’s initial velocity at the
the new road tracks the ambulance as it passes
first sensor and its constant rate of accelera-
three automated roadside sensors placed in se-
tion to verify if its driving profile aligns with
quence. The first and second sensors are exactly
the manufacturer’s safety specifications. (6
95 m apart, and the remote monitoring logs show
scores)
the ambulance covers this distance in 5 seconds.
The second and third sensors are 80 m apart, and 2. Analyse the emergency braking event to es-
the ambulance covers this subsequent distance in tablish whether the ambulance successfully
the next 2 seconds. Throughout this entire sensor comes to a halt before hitting the fallen
zone, the ambulance driver maintains a constant branch, including the exact clearance distance
rate of acceleration. between the resting vehicle and the obstacle.
(5 scores)
Further down the route, the ambulance enters a crit-
ical community zone near the trading center, where 3. Predict the physical consequences of a fa-
the driver strictly maintains the regulated steady tigued driver experiencing a one-second reac-
speed of 25 m s−1 . Suddenly, the driver spots a tion delay before engaging the brakes. Deter-

59
79 Dynamics 2

cycle, carrying urgent supplementary diagnostic ing habitat. To prevent long-term ecological dam-
kits, is navigating across an adjacent flat, open age, the patrol commander must immediately exe-
plain at 36 km h−1 on a bearing of 150◦ to inter- cute an interception plot based on the true velocity
cept the van. of the canal boat relative to the patrol vessel’s cur-
rent position.

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The health operations coordinator monitoring the
live telemetry is concerned about two critical is- Upon successfully matching the canal boat’s trajec-
sues. First, they must predict whether the falling tory and pulling parallel at a horizontal separation

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vial will land safely on the shock-absorbing pad of exactly 12 m, the marine unit must attach a mag-
netic tracking device to the canal boat’s hull. An of-
directly below its starting point, or if the van’s for-
ward velocity will cause the vial to miss the pad ficer stationed on the patrol’s elevated observation

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and shatter. Second, they must determine the pre- deck, positioned 2 m above the water level, throws
cise speed and direction the motorcycle appears to the device horizontally towards the canal boat with

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be moving from the perspective of the van driver,
to coordinate a safe visual alignment for a rolling
an initial speed of 28 m s−1 . For the deployment to
be successful and evade detection, the tracker must
strike the canal boat’s hull within a specific safe
handover of the kits without forcing the van to halt.
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zone: above a reinforced lower guardrail located
Task
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0.8 m above the water level, but below the main

As the operations coordinator, conduct a compre- deck line at 1.5 m.
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hensive kinematic analysis of the unfolding events.

By interpreting and analysing the operational data, Task
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provide mathematical justifications to evaluate the

As the marine operations analyst, conduct a com-
safety of the falling vial, and establish the exact
prehensive kinematic and vector analysis of this
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relative motion parameters required to guide the

interception to protect the community’s aquatic re-
drivers through a safe handover protocol.
sources. Use mathematical modelling to evaluate
the required interception heading by finding the
canal boat’s relative velocity, and predict the exact
Item 72 impact height of the tracking device to advise the
commander on whether the current deployment
A Lake Victoria marine conservation unit is ex- strategy will successfully secure the device within
ecuting a critical interception to protect a local the target zone.
fish breeding zone, a vital economic resource for
the community, from an approaching illegal sand-
mining canal boat.
Item 73
The conservation patrol vessel is navigating the
waters at a speed of 6 km h−1 on a bearing of 345◦ A severe flood has isolated a lakeside fishing settle-
when the crew visually detects the crook boat mov- ment, necessitating urgent medical interventions.
ing at 18 km h−1 on a bearing of 220◦ . The canal A marine rapid-response vessel is dispatched, ini-
boat is on a direct path toward the restricted breed- tially cruising due east across the open water at a

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

93

30), the threshold is approximately 32.9 Method 2: Graphical Method (Description)

years.
• A histogram is plotted with marks (class
• Senior Subsidy (Top 15% = above 85%): boundaries: 49.5, 59.5, etc.) on the horizontal
85 th axis and frequency on the vertical axis.
100 × 110 = 93.5 position. Reading from

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93.5−86
the graph (or via interpolation: 60+ 21 × • In the tallest rectangular bar (representing the
20), the threshold is approximately 67.1 50 − 59 class), diagonal lines are drawn from
years. the top-left corner to the top-left corner of

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the adjacent succeeding bar, and from the top-
Step 4: Strategic Recommendation
right corner to the top-right corner of the ad-
The mathematical threshold for the “Youth Sub- jacent preceding bar.
sidy” places the maximum limit at roughly 33
• A perpendicular line is dropped from the in-

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years of age. A 33-year-old is typically part of
tersection of these diagonals to the horizontal
the prime working-age population. Recommenda-
axis. The reading on the axis is approximately
tion: To ensure the financial sustainability of the

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ferry project, the council should override the 25%
52.8.
statistical threshold and cap the youth subsidy at Recommendation: The most dominant perfor-
a standard dependency age (e.g., 18 or 21 years) mance mark is approximately 52.83. Since
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to avoid subsidising economically active adults, 52.83 ≥ 52, the cooperative should fund the con-
effectively redirecting funds to maintenance and struction of the Advanced Engineering Work-
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operations. shop.
Part (c): Physical Factors and Scientific Inter-
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Response 6 ventions
Part (a): Justified Decision on Track Commis- Objective: Applying physics concepts to explain
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sioning the standard deviation calculated in Part (a).

√
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σ= 4.26 ≈ 2.06 seconds Identified Physical Factors:

• The expected descent time (32.53 s) is less • Variable Kinetic Friction: Unevenness, dirt,
than the threshold of 33.0 s. or rust on the track rails causing irregular fric-
tional forces during descent.
• The measure of inconsistency (2.06 s) is
strictly below the threshold of 2.5 s. • Air Resistance / Drag: Changes in wind
speed and direction in the highland area act-
• Conclusion: Since both conditions are sat- ing against the trolley.
isfied, the technical advisory board should
recommend that the newly constructed track • Mass Distribution: Variations in how the
be officially commissioned for community load (or prototype weights) was distributed,
use. affecting the centre of mass and dynamic sta-
bility of the trolley.
Part (b): Capacity-Building Investment Recom-
mendation Proposed Scientific Interventions:

Objective: The learner must find the “most domi- • Friction Management: Apply specialized
nant performance,” which translates to calculating industrial lubricants to the trolley axles and
the Mode of the grouped frequency distribution. implement a routine rail-cleaning schedule.
• Aerodynamic Design: Install aerodynamic
Mode = 52.83 shields or wind deflectors on the trolley to

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

3. Responses to the Items 94

ensure a constant drag coefficient regardless the cumulative number of participants. A smooth
of wind patterns. S-curve should be drawn connecting the plotted
points.]
• Standardised Loading: Design compart-
mentalised loading bays within the trolley to Using the Ogive:
ensure an even distribution of mass, lowering

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the centre of gravity and stabilising the nor- • The learner locates 140 on the horizontal axis
mal reaction forces on the wheels. (Allowance).
• They draw a vertical line to intersect the curve,

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Response 7 then a horizontal line to read the correspond-
ing cumulative frequency on the vertical axis.
a) Evaluating Suitability of Supplied Pipes
• Expected reading: The cumulative frequency
The learner must calculate the sample mean and

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at 140 is approximately 91 (accept a reason-
standard deviation. able tolerance margin, e.g., 90 − 92).
1. Mean (x̄):
x̄ = 3.11 cm

2. Standard Deviation (S.D):

M Analysis:
The number of participants earning less than 140
(in thousands) is 91. Participants earning 140 or
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more = Total Participants - 91 = 110 − 91 = 19.
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S.D ≈ 0.1517 cm Conclusion:

Conclusion: Since 19 participants earn 140 or more, and this

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is strictly fewer than 25, the condition is satisfied.

The average diameter is exactly 3.11 cm, and the The project management needs to submit a sup-
standard deviation is 0.1517 cm, which is greater plementary budget request.
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than the maximum allowed 0.15 cm. Therefore,

the project manager should not approve the deliv- d) Interpretation and Community Development
ery for installation. Link
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b) Assessing the Allowance Distribution By calculating standard deviations in materials

(pipes), engineers can predict failure rates and en-
The learner must locate the median allowance from
sure the longevity of public infrastructure, prevent-
the grouped data.
ing wasted community funds. By analysing in-
The median allowance is 126.375 (in thousands), come distributions (using medians and ogives), pol-
which is 126, 375 UGX. icymakers can predict economic disparities within
the community. This allows for data-driven inter-
Conclusion:
ventions, such as budget restructuring, to ensure
Since 126.375 ≥ 124, the condition is met. The wealth is circulated equitably, ultimately fostering
committee should maintain the current pay sustainable community development.
scales under the Equitable Wage Policy.
c) Evaluating the Budget Adjustment Condition Response 8
[Graph Description: The learner is expected to The learner must generate class boundaries and
generate a Cumulative Frequency Table using cumulative frequencies to model the data continu-
true upper class boundaries (114.5, 119.5, 129.5, ously (Table 3.6).
134.5, 144.5, 159.5) and plot an Ogive (Cumu-
lative Frequency Curve). The x-axis represents a) Standardization Feasibility (Approval of
the allowance amounts, and the y-axis represents mass production)

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

95

Class Limits Class Boundaries (cm) Frequency ( f ) Cumulative Freq (CF)

145 – 146 144.5 – 146.5 1 1
147 – 148 146.5 – 148.5 6 7
149 – 150 148.5 – 150.5 7 14
151 – 152 150.5 – 152.5 16 30
153 – 154 152.5 – 154.5 8 38

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155 – 156 154.5 – 156.5 5 43
157 – 158 156.5 – 158.5 5 48
159 – 160 158.5 – 160.5 2 50

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Table 3.6

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The learner plots a cumulative frequency curve n = 3, p = 0.24, q = 0.76:
(Ogive) by plotting the Cumulative Frequency  
(CF) on the vertical axis against the Upper Class 3
P(X = 2) = (0.24)2 (0.76)1
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Boundaries on the horizontal axis. A smooth
S-shaped curve is drawn connecting the points
(144.5, 0), (146.5, 1), . . . , (160.5, 50).
2
= 3 × 0.0576 × 0.76
= 0.1313
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Calculations (can be read from the Ogive or
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calculated using interpolation): Recommendation: Since the probability of ex-

actly 2 out of 3 selected students needing the high-
Semi-Interquartile Range (SIQR): desk is 0.1313 (which is greater than 0.10), I rec-
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SIQR = Q3 −Q 1
= 154.375−150.071
= 2.152 cm ommend that the initiative activates the supple-
2 2
mentary fund for adjustable high-desks to accom-
Decision: Since the calculated SIQR (2.152 cm) is modate the taller student demographic.
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less than the required threshold of 2.5 cm, I advise

the manufacturer to approve the standardized c) Community Health Indicator and Strategy
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desk design for mass production. The variation in Evaluating Median (Q2 ):
height is within the acceptable ergonomic limits.
Q2 position = N2 = 25
b) Supplementary Fund Framework
Q2 = 151.875 cm
Statistical Framework: The framework involves
identifying the base probability of a student re- Condition 1 is satisfied (151.875 cm ≥ 151 cm).
quiring a high-desk, and applying the Binomial
Evaluating Stunted Growth Metric (<
Probability distribution for the sample size n = 3.
148.5 cm):
From the data, the number of students who are From the cumulative frequency table, the number
≥ 154.5 cm tall is the total number of students of students shorter than 148.5 cm is 7.
minus the cumulative frequency up to 154.5 cm.  
7
Percentage = × 100% = 14%
50
Students ≥ 154.5 cm = 50 − 38 = 12
Condition 2 is satisfied (14% < 15%).

12 Strategic Recommendation: Both health indica-

Probability of success (p) = = 0.24 tor criteria are met. The nutritional status of the
50
students is generally good. I conclude that the cur-
Using the Binomial framework X ∼ B(n, p) where rent program is a success.

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

107

Let Ti be the event a boy consumes Tilapia, and N p

be the event a boy consumes Nile Perch. 3
6

0 31 × 20 20 5
P(X = 0) = = = =
P(Ti |N p ) = 13
≈ 86.7% 84 84 84 21
15 3
6

3 × 15 45 15
P(X = 1) = 1 2 = = =
Justification/Recommendation: An overwhelm-

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84


84 84 28
ing majority (86.7%) of students who eat Nile 3 6
3 × 6 18 3
Perch also eat Tilapia. Because there is such a P(X = 2) = 2 1 = = =
84 84 84 14
massive overlap in consumption, isolating just one 3
6

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1×1 1
type of fish will be ineffective at halting the out- P(X = 3) = 3 0 = =
break. The administration must suspend both fish 84 84 84
types from the menu entirely until the specific toxic
species is definitively identified. Probability Distribution Table:

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Number of Tech Startups (x) 0 1 2 3
Response 20
Table 3.11
M Probability P(X = x)

Visual Model (Line Graph):

20
84
45
84
18
84
1
84
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Distribution of Selected Tech Startups

Response 21 0.54
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Probability P(X = x)

0.5
Table 3.12
0.4
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0.3 0.24 0.21

Response 22 0.2
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0.1
1. Numerical and Visual Statistical Model 1.2 · 10−2
0
0 1 2 3
Let the random variable X be the number of high-
Number of Tech Startups Selected (x)
risk tech startups selected.

Total projects = 9. Number to be selected = 3.

2. Operational Costs Analysis
Number of Tech Startups = 3. Number of Agribusi-
The operational cost factor is given by C = 2X +
nesses = 6.
5. First, calculate the expected number of tech
startups E(X):
The probabilities follow a hypergeometric distribu-
(3)( 6 ) E(X) = ∑ x · P(X = x)
tion: P(X = x) = x 93−x
(3)        
20 45 18 1

E(X) = 0 +1 +2 +3
9 9!
The total possible combinations is 3 = 3!(9−3)! = 84 84 84 84
84. 0 + 45 + 36 + 3 84
E(X) = = =1
84 84
Calculating probabilities for each possible out-
come (x = 0, 1, 2, 3): The predicted operational cost is the Expected

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

119

Probability Density f (t) 0.3 • Logistical Recommendation: Engineer

Zainab must recommend a preemptive, full-
system replacement of the cooling fans to
0.2 the donor oversight committee. Despite the
high upfront cost, this guarantees operational
credibility and secures the funding extension

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0.1 for broader community development.
P(2 < T < 5)

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0 Response 32
0 2 4 6 8 10
Time t (years) i) Model Formulation & Validation
Let the probability density function be f (t). Based

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3. Mathematical Evaluation (8 scores) on the scenario, the function increases linearly
from t = 2 and decreases at the same rate from
Using the conditional probability formula:

P(T < 5 | T > 2) = P((T <5)∩(T

P(T >2)
>2))
= P(2<T <5)
P(T >2)

First, calculate the probability that a fan survives

M
t = 3 to t = 4. We can define it using an unknown
constant α :

α (t − 2) for 2 < t < 3

n
longer than 2 years, P(T > 2): f (t) = α (4 − t) for 3 ≤ t < 4
  

di

−0.25(2) −0.5 0 otherwise

P(T > 2) = 0 − −e =e ≈ 0.6065
ur

Next, calculate the probability that a fan fails be- α = 1.

tween year 2 and year 5, P(2 < T < 5):
ii) Expected Lifespan & Consistency (Variance)
P(2 < T < 5) = e−0.5 − e−1.25 ≈ 0.6065 −
as

0.2865 = 0.3200 E(T 2 ) = 55

6 ≈ 9.167
1
Now, compute the conditional probability: The variance, representing consistency, is = 6 ≈
N

0.167
0.3200
P(T < 5 | T > 2) = 0.6065 ≈ 0.5276 or 52.76%
iii) Cost Analysis & Community Recommenda-
Alternative Approach: A candidate may demon- tion
strate exceptional proficiency by applying the
“memoryless property” of the exponential dis- Contract A (Optima Renewables): The fee is
tribution, observing that P(T < 2 + 3 | T > mathematically modelled as 6T 2 .
R

2) = P(T ≤ 3) = 03 0.25e−0.25t dt = 1 − e−0.75 ≈ Expected cost = E(6T 2 ) = 6E(T 2 ) = 6 55
6 =
52.76%. Full scores should be awarded for cor- 55 (i.e., 550,000 shillings).
rectly justifying and applying this concept.
Contract B (Eco-Grid Solutions): The fee is
4. Recommendation and Justification (4 scores) mathematically modelled as 5T 2 − 2.
• Statistical Conclusion: The calculated condi- Expected cost 2 2) −

= E(5T 275− 2) 12= 5E(T
tional probability of a functioning 2-year-old 2 = 5 55 6 − 2 = 6 − 6 = 263
6 ≈
fan failing before the end of the required 5- 43.83 (i.e., 438,333 shillings).
year operational window is 52.76%.
Recommendation: Najjuko should advise the
• Policy Evaluation: Because 52.76% > 50%, community council to select Contract B (Eco-
the mathematical risk officially breaches the Grid Solutions). Statistical analysis proves it
threshold mandated by the facility’s risk man- yields a significantly lower expected financial bur-
agement policy. den for the initiative.

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

159

Velocity-Time Graph of the Delivery Van and Motorcycle

Delivery Van
75.0
Motorcycle
Velocity, |v| (km h−1 )

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50.0
˜

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25.0

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0.0
0 2 4 12 14.5

MTime, t (minutes)

Figure 3.19
n
di

Equating the distances (Dv = Dm ):

50T − 50 = 75T − 225 1

Area = × (sum of parallel sides) × height
ur

2
175 = 25T 1
T = 7 minutes = × (14.5 + 10) × 50
2
as

1
= × 24.5 × 50
2
= 612.5 km · min · h−1
N

The courier intersects the van exactly 7 minutes

after the van’s departure (or 5 minutes after the
courier leaves).
612.5
Total Distance = ≈ 10.208 km
60
Distance of intersection from the start: Substitut-
ing T = 7 into the van’s distance equation: 4. Operational Decision
Raw Area = 50(7) − 50 = 300 km · min · h−1 The total distance to the clinic is 10.208 km, and
300 the motorcycle catches up to the van at the 5 km
Actual Distance = = 5 km
60 mark. Because the intersection happens well be-
fore the van reaches its destination, management
should allow the van to continue without stop-
ping. The critical document will safely reach the
3. Total Journey Distance to the Clinic van in transit, ensuring no delay to the urgent blood
samples.

The van travels for a total of 2 + 10 + 2.5 = 14.5

Marking Allocation
minutes. The total distance is the area of the entire
trapezium formed by the van’s motion. Assessment Criteria

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

3. Responses to the Items 182

for wingspans). We analyse the motion of the Ser- separation standards for low-visibility opera-
vice Vehicle from the reference frame of Aircraft tions.
B.
The relative position vector is:

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~rS/B (t) = ~rS (t) −~rB (t) = (200 − 5t)î − (−200 +
8t) jˆ The square of the distance between them is:
D2 (t) = (200 − 5t)2 + (−200 + 8t)2

um
D2 (t) = 40000 − 2000t + 25t 2 + 40000 − 3200t +
64t 2
D2 (t) = 89t 2 − 5200t + 80000

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To find the time of closest approach, we minimize

d(D2 )
dt = 178t − 5200 = 0 =⇒ t ≈ 29.21 s
M
D2 (t) by taking the derivative and setting it to zero:
n
At t = 29.21 s, the minimum distance is:
p
di

Dmin = 89(29.21)2 − 5200(29.21) + 80000 ≈

63.6 metres
ur

A clearance of 63.6 meters is a severe near-miss

for large aircraft operations, representing an unac-
ceptable risk in zero-visibility conditions.
as

Emergency Avoidance Protocols

Based on the kinematic data, the following proto-
N

cols must be immediately enacted by Air Traffic

Control:
1. Aircraft A: No emergency evasive action is
required. Mathematical modeling confirms it
will successfully brake and halt roughly 444
meters prior to the intersection.
2. Service Vehicle: ISSUE IMMEDIATE
HALT ORDER. The maintenance vehicle
is moving at a slow, constant speed (5 m/s)
and can stop almost instantaneously. Halting
it immediately neutralizes the relative prox-
imity threat with Aircraft B.
3. Aircraft B: ISSUE IMMEDIATE HOLD
SHORT ORDER. Instruct Aircraft B to
brake and hold position on the taxiway. While
no direct collision at the origin is predicted,
the 63.6-meter proximity margin between it
and the Service Vehicle violates minimum

Copyright © Nasurdin Mulumba 0704 256 478

 Bibliography

ba
um
[1] J. K. Backhouse. Pure Mathematics 2. Longman, London, 1985.

[2] Manjel Danladi, Gau Patrick Damulak, and Felix Eli Wang. Mathematical Induction: Principles,

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Applications and Real-World Implications. International Journal of Modern Science and Research
Technology, Barkin-Ladi, Nigeria, 2025.

M
[3] Farley Ledgerwood. Psychology says people who still handwrite grocery lists instead of
using apps display these 7 rare cognitive strengths. [Link]
r-bt-psychology-says-people-who-still-handwrite-grocery-lists-instead/,
n
2026. Accessed: 2026-01-12.
di

[4] Welch Labs. Imaginary Numbers Are Real [Part 1: Introduction]. [Link]
T647CGsuOVU, 2015. Accessed: 2026-04-11.
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as
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183
N
as
ur
di
n
M
ul
um
ba
 The author attended Sunset J.S., Bilal Islamic
School, Kawempe Muslim S.S. before joining
Mbogo College School. He later joined Makerere
University, where he graduated with a Bachelor of
Science with Education. He has taught at Mbogo
College School, Greenlight H.S., Janan S.S., and
Broadway H.S. The author has taught
Mathematics for almost a decade.

Other Books by the Same Author

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Item Bank

6. Choose the Best Materials; do some research to enable you to

get information on the best learning environment. Mathematics
Beyond the Classroom for Advanced Level is an example.