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Forecasting Ozone Concentrations Using

Box-Jenkins ARIMA Modeling in Malaysia
 August 2018
 American Journal of Environmental Sciences 14(3):118-128

DOI:10.3844/ajessp.2018.118.128
Authors:
Nur Izzah Jamil

 MARA University of Technology

Wan Rozita Wan Mahiyuddin

 Ministry of Health Malaysia

zamtira seman
Ahmad Nurul Izzah

 Ministry of Health Malaysia

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Citations (10)

Abstract
Time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in many applications in air
pollution and environmental management fields. Among the most effective approaches for
analyzing time series data is the model introduced by Box and Jenkins. In this study, we used
Box-Jenkins methodology to build Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
model on the average of monthly ozone data taken from three monitoring stations in Klang
Valley for the period of 2000 to 2010 with a total of 132 readings. Result shows that ARIMA
(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was successfully applied to predict the long terms trend of ozone
concentrations in Klang Valley. The model performance has been evaluated on the basis of
certain commonly used statistical measures. The overall model performance is found to be
quite satisfactory as indicated by the values of Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute
Percentage Error and Normalized Bayesian Information Criteria. The finding of a statistically
significant upward trend of future ozone concentrations is a concern for human health in
Klang Valley since over the last decade, ozone appears a one of the main pollutant of concern
in Malaysia.

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... ARIMA model suggested by Box-Jenkins method is widely used in dengue forecasting
[4;12;17;24]. The preliminary steps for the purpose of Box-Jenkins method is to determine the
most appropriate ARMA or ARIMA class to be applied in the time series data [25].
Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) are common
plots used to tentatively identify the number of AR and MA terms to be propose in the model.
...
... That said, ARIMA model was employed to model epi-week number of dengue cases in
Gombak and Klang. Besides, this approach was a suitable approach in trend analysis to
forecast purposes [25]. The stages in the modelling approach included model identification,
model performance and diagnostic checking. ...
Box-Jenkins method of epi-week dengue cases in Gombak and Klang, Selangor, Malaysia
Conference Paper
Full-text available

 Jun 2023

 Nur Izzah Jamil

 Norziha Che Him
 Norani Amit
 Siti Fatimah Az-Zahra Mohd Hamdan

View
... Traditional time series models, such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) (Salazar et al. 2019) and Markov chain models (Chakraborty and Chattopadhyay
2021), perform well in capturing linear trends and structural patterns. For example,
Mahiyuddin et al. (2018) developed an ARIMA model using monthly ozone data from three
monitoring sites in the Klang Valley from 2000 to 2010, based on the Box-Jenkins
methodology, to predict long-term regional ozone trends. Sun et al. (2013) proposed
integrating a supervised Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with a Generalized Linear Model
(GLM) to enhance the modeling of ozone concentration variations. ...
ST-OzoneNet: A spatio-temporal deep learning model for accurate prediction of ozone
concentration
Article
Full-text available

 Oct 2025

 Chaoli Tang
 Diandian Zhen
 Lingqian Zhang
 Yuanyuan Wei

View
... The ARIMA model has been used to forecast the mid-and long-term concentration of ozone
over many study areas. 26,27 The ARIMA model can be thought as a model that combines
three different time series models: Auto-regression (AR), Integrated (I), and Moving average
(MA) models. The AR part of ARIMA indicates the change of a variable that regresses on
some of its prior values, the MA part indicates the dependency between an observation and a
residual error, and the I part represents the differencing of raw observations to allow for the
time series to become stationary. ...
Comparative study of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and Holt-Winters
modeling for forecasting monthly ground-level ozone
Article
Full-text available

 Mar 2023

 Abebaw Bizuneh Alemu

 [Link] Prakash Raju
 Abdu Mohammed Seid
 Bayile Damtie

View
... We employed the portmanteau test for the residual analysis to check for autocorrelation.
For an adequate model, the errors are expected to be uncorrelated or white noise [42]. e
portmanteau test confirms the ACF residual plots, PACF residual plot, and the normal
probability plot. ...
Comparison of Conventional Modeling Techniques with the Neural Network Autoregressive
Model (NNAR): Application to COVID-19 Data
Article
Full-text available

 Jun 2022

 Muhammad Daniyal
 Kassim Tawiah
 Sara Muhammadullah
  Kwaku Opoku-Ameyaw

View
... The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model [20] is a classical
modeling and forecasting technique that is widely used to analyze linear time series data.
Multiple studies [21][22][23][24][25][26][27] have found that both ARIMA and ARMA
models are reliable and capable of predicting short-term O 3 concentrations. However, most
of these studies have not included explicitly the effect of meteorological variables in
predicting O 3 concentrations, or the typical temporal resolution is not finer than a daily
forecast. ...
Explicit Modeling of Meteorological Explanatory Variables in Short-Term Forecasting of
Maximum Ozone Concentrations via a Multiple Regression Time Series Framework
Article
Full-text available

 Dec 2020

 Sigfrido Iglesias
 María E. Huertas
 Iván Yassmany Hernández Paniagua
 Alberto Mendoza

View
... Indeed, as an earlier preventive measure, the air pollutant index forecast is seen as control
measures and becoming as an important effort [7]. Besides, time series analysis has evolve as
an extensive in many applications in air pollution and environmental management fields [8].
Some of the forecasting methods used in this study include naive method, simply dictates to
use previous period to forecast for the next period. ...
Model Evaluation on Air Pollutant Index (API) in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia
Article
Full-text available

 May 2020

 Nur Izzah Jamil

 Norani Amit
 Noreha Mohamed Yusof

View
... The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model [5] is a classical forecast
technique used to analyze linear time series data. Diverse studies [6]- [8] have found that both
ARIMA and ARMA models are reliable and capable of predicting short-term O3
concentrations. ...
Time series forecasting of ozone levels in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey, Mexico
Conference Paper
Full-text available

 May 2020

 Sigfrido Iglesias
  María E. Huertas
 Iván Yassmany Hernández Paniagua
 Alberto Mendoza

View
Forecasting the Short-Term Changes of Surface Ozone and NO2 during a Festival Event
Using Stochastic and Neural Network Models
Article
Full-text available

 Jun 2025

 Ebin Antony
 Keerthi Lakshmi
 Sunil Kumar
 Annie

View
Time Series Analysis of Particulate Matter in Bangkok, Thailand
Conference Paper

 Jul 2023

 Orathai Polsen
 Pianpool Kamoljitprapa

View
Ozone air concentration trend attributes assist hours-ahead forecasts from univariate recorded
data avoiding exogenous data inputs
Article

 Jan 2023

 David A. Wood

View

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