Basic Statistics for Applied Science
(Math1106) Group Assignment II
Question 1: Factory Production Line
A factory production line manufactures bolts using three machines: A, B, and C.
Machine A is responsible for 25% of the total output, Machine B for 35%, and Machine
C for the rest (40%). The defect rates are 5% for Machine A, 4% for Machine B, and 2%
for Machine C. We need to find the probability that a randomly chosen defective bolt
came from each machine.
Let:
P (M ) = Probability that a bolt came from Machine A = 0.25
A
P (M ) = Probability that a bolt came from Machine B = 0.35
B
P (M ) = Probability that a bolt came from Machine C = 1 - (0.25 + 0.35) = 0.40
C
P (D∣M ) = Probability of a defective bolt given it came from Machine A = 0.05
A
P (D∣M ) = Probability of a defective bolt given it came from Machine B = 0.04
B
P (D∣M ) = Probability of a defective bolt given it came from Machine C = 0.02
C
We use Bayes’ Theorem to find the probability that a defective bolt came from a
specific machine.
Formula for Total Probability of Defective Bolt: P (D) = P (D∣M )P (M ) + A
A
P (D∣MB )P (MB ) + P (D∣MC )P (MC )
Formula for Bayes’ Theorem: P (M ∣D) = i
P (D∣Mi )P (Mi )
P (D)
Calculations:
1. Calculate the total probability of a defective bolt, P (D): P (D) = (0.05 ×
0.25) + (0.04 × 0.35) + (0.02 × 0.40) P (D) = 0.0125 + 0.0140 + 0.0080
P (D) = 0.0345
2. Calculate the probability that the defective bolt came from Machine A,
P (M ∣D): P (M ∣D) =
P (D∣MA )P (MA ) 0.05×0.25 0.0125
A
=
A
= ≈ 0.3623
P (D)
0.0345
0.0345
3. Calculate the probability that the defective bolt came from Machine B,
P (M ∣D): P (M ∣D) =
B
B= =
P (D∣MB )P (MB )
≈ 0.4058
P (D)
0.04×0.35
0.0345
0.0140
0.0345
4. Calculate the probability that the defective bolt came from Machine C,
P (M ∣D): P (M ∣D) = = = P (D∣MC )P (MC )
≈ 0.2319 0.02×0.40 0.0080
C
C
P (D)
0.0345
0.0345
Results:
The probability that a defective bolt came from Machine A is approximately
0.3623.
The probability that a defective bolt came from Machine B is approximately
0.4058.
The probability that a defective bolt came from Machine C is approximately
0.2319.
Question 2: Discrete Random Variable
Let X be a discrete random variable with the following probability mass function (PMF):
⎧0.1 for x = 0
0.4 for x = 1
P (x) = ⎨0.3
for x = 2
0.2 for x = 3
⎩0 Otherwise
a) Compute P (X ≥ 1∣X < 3)
This is a conditional probability. The formula for conditional probability is P (A∣B) =
P (A∩B)
P (B) .
Let A be the event X ≥ 1, so A = {1, 2, 3}. Let B be the event X < 3, so B = {0, 1, 2}.
The intersection of A and B, A ∩ B, is X ∈ {1, 2}.
Calculations:
1. Calculate P (A ∩ B): P (A ∩ B) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) = 0.4 + 0.3 = 0.7
2. Calculate P (B): P (B) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2) = 0.1 + 0.4 +
0.3 = 0.8
3. Calculate P (X ≥ 1∣X < 3): P (X ≥ 1∣X < 3) = 0.7
0.8 = 0.875
Result: P (X ≥ 1∣X < 3) = 0.875
b) The mean and variance of X
Formula for Mean (Expected Value) of X: E[X] = ∑ x ⋅ P (x)
Formula for Variance of X: Var[X] = E[X ] − (E[X]) , where E[X ] = ∑ x ⋅ P (x)
2 2 2 2
Calculations:
1. Calculate E[X]: E[X] = (0 × 0.1) + (1 × 0.4) + (2 × 0.3) + (3 × 0.2) E[X] =
0 + 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.6 E[X] = 1.6
2. Calculate :
E[X 2 ] E[X 2 ] = (02 × 0.1) + (12 × 0.4) + (22 × 0.3) + (32 × 0.2)
E[X 2 ] = (0 × 0.1) + (1 × 0.4) + (4 × 0.3) + (9 × 0.2) E[X 2 ] = 0 + 0.4 + 1.2 +
1.8 E[X 2 ] = 3.4
3. Calculate Var[X]: Var[X] = 3.4 − (1.6) 2
Var[X] = 3.4 − 2.56 Var[X] = 0.84
Results:
Mean of X (E[X]) = 1.6
Variance of X (Var[X]) = 0.84
c) If Y = (X − 2) , find E(Y ) and Var(Y )
2
First, we need to find the possible values of Y and their corresponding probabilities.
X P(x) Y = (X-2)2 P(y)
0 0.1 (0 − 2)2 = 4 0.1
1 0.4 (1 − 2)2 = 1 0.4
2 0.3 (2 − 2)2 = 0 0.3
3 0.2 (3 − 2)2 = 1 0.2
Notice that Y=1 occurs when X=1 or X=3. So, P (Y = 1) = P (X = 1) + P (X = 3) =
0.4 + 0.2 = 0.6.
Revised PMF for Y:
Y P(y)
0 0.3
1 0.6
4 0.1
Formula for Mean (Expected Value) of Y: E[Y ] = ∑ y ⋅ P (y)
Formula for Variance of Y: Var[Y ] = E[Y ] − (E[Y ]) , where E[Y ] = ∑ y ⋅ P (y)
2 2 2 2
Calculations:
1. Calculate E[Y ]: E[Y ] = (0 × 0.3) + (1 × 0.6) + (4 × 0.1) E[Y ] = 0 + 0.6 + 0.4
E[Y ] = 1.0
2. Calculate :
E[Y 2 ] E[Y 2 ] = (02 × 0.3) + (12 × 0.6) + (42 × 0.1) E[Y 2 ] = (0 ×
0.3) + (1 × 0.6) + (16 × 0.1) E[Y 2 ] = 0 + 0.6 + 1.6 E[Y 2 ] = 2.2
3. Calculate Var[Y ]: Var[Y ] = 2.2 − (1.0) 2 Var[Y ] = 2.2 − 1.0 Var[Y ] = 1.2
Results:
Mean of Y (E[Y ]) = 1.0
Variance of Y (Var[Y ]) = 1.2
Question 3: Monthly Cell Phone Bills
Monthly cell phone bills for residents of a city have a mean of
63andastandarddeviationof 11. Simple random samples of 100 are drawn, and the
mean is determined for each sample.
Given:
Population mean (μ) = $63
Population standard deviation (σ) = $11
Sample size (n) = 100
a) Find the mean of the sampling distribution of sample means
Formula for the Mean of the Sampling Distribution of Sample Means: E[Xˉ ] =
μXˉ = μ
Calculation: E[Xˉ ] = 63
Result: The mean of the sampling distribution of sample means is $63.
b) Find the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of sample
means
Formula for the Standard Deviation of the Sampling Distribution of Sample Means
(Standard Error): σ = ˉ
X
σ
n
Calculation: σ = = = 1.1
ˉ
X
11
100
11
10
Result: The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of sample means is $1.1.
c) What is the probability that the mean of a sample is greater than
$74?
We need to find P (Xˉ > 74). Since the sample size is large (n = 100 > 30), we can use
the Central Limit Theorem, and the sampling distribution of the sample means will be
approximately normal.
Formula for Z-score: Z = ˉ −μXˉ
X
σXˉ
Calculations:
1. Calculate the Z-score for Xˉ = 74: Z = 74−63
1.1 =
11
1.1= 10
2. Find the probability P (Z > 10): Using a standard normal distribution table or
calculator, P (Z > 10) is extremely small, practically 0.
Result: The probability that the mean of a sample is greater than $74 is approximately
0.0000.