Module 3

Errors and Statistics; Probable Errors

After the learners have gone through the lessons contained in this module, they are
expected to:

1. Differentiate measurement from observation;

2. Distinguish precision from accuracy;
3. Classify different types of errors;
4. Describe the differences between random error, systematic error and mistakes;
5. Recall what was learned in statistics; and
6. Solve problems involving errors.

3.1 Measurement vs. Observation

Making observations, measurements, and subsequent computations and analyses
using them, are fundamental tasks of surveyors. However, no matter how carefully made,
observations are never exact and will always contain errors.

Errors are inherent in all measurements and result from sources which cannot be
avoided. But errors are in fact, not errors at all. They may be caused by the type of
equipment used, by the way in which the equipment is employed and sometimes due to
the carelessness of the observer. The effects of errors cannot be entirely eliminated; they
can, however, be minimized by careful work and by applying corrections.

Surveyors whose work must be performed to exacting standards, should therefore

thoroughly understand the different kinds of errors, their sources and expected
magnitudes under varying conditions, and their manner of propagation. Only then can
they select instruments and procedures necessary to reduce error sizes to within tolerable
limits.
3.1.1 Observation
- It is a single, unadjusted determination of a linear or angular value.
- It is a single reading of an angle or a single reading of an EDM is an observation.
- It is an observed value is a quantity that is obtained by instrumental measurement
of the quantity.
- A direct observation is an observation of the desired quantity while an indirect
observation is a quantity computed from direct observations.

3.1.2 Measurements
- It is the entire process of obtaining a desired quantity.
- The result of these physical operations renders a numerical value that is called a
“measurement”.
- The process of determining the extent, size or dimensions of a particular quantity
in comparison to a given standard.
- In surveying measurements are usually concentrated on angles, elevations, times,
lines, areas and volumes

3.1.3 Types of Measurements

1. Direct Measurement - is a comparison of the measured quantity with a standard
measuring unit or units employed for measuring a quantity of that kind.
2. Indirect Measurement – when it is not possible to apply a measuring instrument
directly to a quantity to be measured an indirect measurement is made.

3.1.4 The Meter

- The international unit of linear measure proposed sometime in 1789 by French
scientists who hoped to establish a system suitable for all times and all peoples,
and which could be based upon permanent natural standards.
- Finally, in May 20, 1875, a treaty was signed in Paris by representatives of
eighteen countries (13 from Europe, 4 from American continents and 1 from the
Middle East) which created an International Bureau of Weights and Measures.
3.1.5 International System of Units (SI)
- The International Bureau of Weights and Measures promulgated in 1960 the
International System of Units, generally known as SI.
- Effective January 1, 1983 the English System was officially phased out in the
Philippines and only the modern metric system was allowed to be used
- Units in SI of major concern in surveying are the meter (m) for linear measurement,
the square meter (sq.m or m2) for areas, the cubic meter (cu.m or m3) for volumes,
and the radian (rad) for plane angles.
- Kilometers (km) for longer distance, hectares (ha) for larger areas and degrees,
minutes, and seconds for plane angles

3.1.6 Methods of Measurements

1. Linear, Area and Volume Measurements
- Linear measurements involve taping and using EDM
- Length may also refer to other linear dimensions such as width, depth,
thickness, height or distance.

2. Angular Measurements
- Horizontal angular measurements are made between survey lines to determine
the angle between the lines. A horizontal angle is the difference between two
measured directions.
- Vertical angular measurements are measured to determine slope of survey
lines from the horizontal plane (level line).
- In the sexagesimal system, there are 360° in the circumference of a circle. The
basic unit is the degree (°), which is further divided into 60 minutes (60'), and
the minute is subdivided into 60 seconds (60")
- Other angular measurement is the centesimal unit where the grad is the
angular unit.
3.2 Error and Correction, Sources of Errors and Types of Errors

Field observations and the resulting measurement are never exact. Any
observation can contain various types of errors. Often some of these errors are known
and can be eliminated by applying appropriate corrections.

3.2.1 Mistakes
- Inaccuracies in measurements which occur because some aspect of a
surveying operation is performed by the surveyor with carelessness,
inattention, poor judgement, and improper execution.

3.2.2 Blunders
- In surveying refer to a blunder as a gross error. One can easily make a case
for a blunder to be considered an error. However, a blunder is really an
unpredictable gross mistake made by the surveying team. It is not a hidden
error that will go unnoticed, but usually it becomes apparent that something is
wrong with the measurements.
- Blunders are caused by carelessness, misunderstanding, confusion, or poor
judgment. They are, for the most part, avoided by alertness, common sense,
and good judgment.

Example of Blunders
• Transposing two numbers
• Misplacing decimal point
• Incorrect reading
• Inadvertently altering set instrument constants in the middle of a project
• Placing sighting device or the instrument at a wrong point.
• Misunderstanding verbal instructions or reading announcements
• Neglecting to level an instrument.
• Using the incorrect coordinates or benchmark values.
Blunders are detected and eliminated by using proper procedures, such as:
• Checking each recorded and calculated value.
• Making independent and redundant measure check observations and
measurements.
• Making redundant measurements that allow closure computation of sections of
the entire survey.

3.2.3 Error
- Error is the difference, after blunders have been eliminated, between a
measured or calculated value of a quantity and the true or established value of
that quantity.
- Is defined as the difference between the true value and the measured value of
a quantity.

3.2.4 Two General Types of Error:

1. Systematic Errors
- It is an error that will always have the same magnitude and the same algebraic
sign as long as field conditions remain constant and unchanged.
- It is also called Cumulative Error.
- Occur due to instrumental factors, natural causes, and human limitations of the
observer.

2. Accidental Errors
- It is an error produced by irregular causes that are beyond the control of the
observer.
- It is also called Random Error
3.2.5 Sources of Error:
1. Instrumental Errors
- Instrumental errors are caused by imperfections in the design, construction,
and adjustment of instruments and other equipment.
Examples:
a) Measuring with a steel tape of incorrect length.
b) Using a leveling rod with painted graduations not perfectly spaced.
c) Determining the difference in elevation between two points with an instrument
whose line of sight is not in adjustment.
d) Sighting on a rod which is warped.
e) Improper adjustment of the plate bubbles of a transit or level.

2. Natural Errors
- These errors are caused by variations in the phenomena of nature such as
changes in magnetic declination, temperature, humidity, wind, refraction,
gravity and curvature of the earth.
- Natural errors are beyond the control of man.
Examples:
a) The effect of temperature variation on the length of a steel tape.
b) Error in the readings of the magnetic needle due to variations in magnetic
declination.
c) Deflection of the line of sight due to the effect of the earth’s curvature and
atmospheric refraction.
d) Error in the measurement of a line with a tape being blown sidewise by a strong
wind.
e) Error in the measurement of a horizontal distance due to slope or uneven ground.
3. Personal Errors
- These errors are arise principally from limitations of the senses of sight, touch
and hearing of the human observer which are likely to be erroneous or
inaccurate.
-
Examples:
a) Error in determining a reading on a rod which is out of plumb during sighting.
b) Error in the measurement of a vertical angle when the cross hairs of the telescope
are not positioned correctly on the target.
c) Making an erroneous estimate of the required pull to be applied on a steel tape
during measurement.

3.3 Precision vs. Accuracy

A surveyor strives for both accuracy and precision. Many people use the terms
“accuracy” and “precision” interchangeably. However, for those in the surveying
profession (as well as other technical and scientific fields), these words have different
meanings.

3.3.1 Accuracy
- Accuracy indicates how close a given measurement is to the true value of the
quantity measured. It implies the closeness between related measurements and
their expectations.
- Accuracy relates to the quality of the result.

3.3.2 Precision
- It refers to the degree of refinement and consistency with which any physical
measurement is made. It is portrayed by the closeness to one another of a set of
repeated measurements of a quantity.
 Using four cases of rifle shots fired at a bull’s eye target, each with different results,
helps to distinguish the meaning of these two terms.

Case 1: Low Accuracy Low

Precision: Shots are high or left
and scattered all around the part of
the target. These shots were
neither accurate (not close to the
center) nor precise (not close to
each other).

Figure 11. Accuracy vs. Precision

(Retrieved June 25, 202)

Case 2: Low Accuracy High Precision: The target shows that the four shots are very
close together, but all four are high and to the left of the bull’s eye. These shots are
precise (close together), but not accurate (not close to the center of the target).

Case 3: High Accuracy Low Precision: The shooter adjusts the rifle’s telescopic sight
and, full of confidence that the problem of inaccuracy has been solved, stands and quickly
fires four shots. Upon studying the target, the four holes are scattered across the target,
but the location of each of the four is very close to the bull’s eye. These shots are
accurate, but not precise.

Case 4: High Accuracy High Precision: The shooter again assumes a prone position,
rests the barrel of the rifle on a support, takes careful aim, holds his breath, and gently
squeezes the trigger four times. This time, the four holes are very close to the center of
the target (accurate) and very close together (precise).
3.4 Statistics and Measures of Central Tendency

3.4.1 Statistics
- It is a collection of methods from planning experiments, obtaining data, and then
organizing, summarizing, presenting, processing, analysing, interpreting, and
drawing conclusions based on the collected data.

3.4.2 Measure f Central Tendency

- An average is a value which is typically located within a set of data. Since such
typical values tend to be centrally located within a set of arrangement according to
magnitude, averages are also called measures of central tendency.
- A measure of central tendency describes a set of data by locating the middle region
of the set. The common measures of central tendency are the arithmetic mean,
the median and the mode.

3.4.3 Theory of Probability

- Probability is defined as the number of times something will probably occur over
the range of possible occurrences.
- The theory of probability is useful in indicating the precision of results only in so far
as they are affected by accidental errors.

The theory of probability is based upon the following assumptions relative to the
occurrences of errors:
• Small errors occur more often than large ones and that they are more
probable.
• Large errors happen infrequently and are therefore less probable; for
normally distributed errors, unusually large ones maybe mistakes rather
than accidental errors.
• Positive and negative errors of the same size happen with equal frequency;
that is, they are equally probable.
• The mean of an infinite number of observations is the most probable value.
3.4.4 Most Probable Value
- From the theory of probability a basic assumption is that the most probable value
(mpv) of a group of repeated measurements made under similar conditions is the
arithmetic mean or the average.
- It refers to a quantity which, based on available data, has more chances of being
correct than any other.

There is only one correct value that should be considered and it is determined by using
the following equation:

∑𝑥 (𝑥1 +𝑥2 +𝑥3 +⋯+𝑥𝑛 )

𝑚𝑝𝑣 = 𝑥̅ = =
𝑛 𝑛

where:
mpv = most probable value of the quantity measured
Σx = sum of the individual measurements
n = total number of observations made

Illustrative Problem:
The angles about a point M have the following observed angles: 130°15’20”,
142°37’30” and 87°07’40”. Determine the most probable value of the angles.

Given:
θ1= 130°15’20”
θ2= 142°37’30”
θ3 θ1
Q θ3= 87°07’40”
n = 3 (number of observed angles)

θ2 a) Determining correction to be applied:

Sum = θ1 + θ2 + θ3
= 130°15’20” + 142°37’30” + 87°07’40”
= 360°00’30”
Discrepancy = 360°00’00” - 360°00’30” = -30” (discrepancy in the observation)

Note: The sum of the angles observed about point Q is subtracted from 360° (the
expected correct sum) to determine the discrepancy.

𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑦 −30"
Correction = = = -10” (correction to be subtracted from each observed
𝑛 3

angles)

b) Determining the Most Probable Values

θ1′ = 𝜃1 ± Correction = 130°15’20” – 10” = 130°15’10”
θ2′ = θ2 ± Correction = 142°37’30” – 10” = 142°37’20”
θ3′ = θ3 ± Correction = 87°07’40”– 10” = 87°07’30”

c) Solution Check:
θ1′ + θ2′ + θ3′ = 360°00’00”
130°15’10” + 142°37’20” + 87°07’30” = 360°00’00”
360°00’00” = 360°00’00”

3.4.5 Residual
The residual, which is sometimes referred to as the deviation, is defined as the
difference between any measured value of a quantity and its most probable value or

̅
v = √𝒙 – 𝒙

where: v is the residual in any measurement, x is a measurement made of a particular

quantity, and x is the most probable value of the quantity measured. Residuals and errors
are theoretically identical. The only difference is that residuals can be calculated whereas
errors cannot because there is no way of knowing true values.
3.4.6 Probable Error
- The probable error is a quantity which, when added to and subtracted from the
most probable value, defines a range within which there is a 50% chance that
the true value of the measured quantity lies inside (or outside) the limits thus
set.
- The value of the probable error is calculated with the use of the following
formulae which are derived from the method of the least squares.

PEs = ± 0.6745 √Σv2 /n − 1

PEm = ± 0.6745 √Σv 2 /n(n − 1)

Where: PEs = probable error of any single measurement of a series
PEm = probable error of the mean
Σv2 = summation of the squares of the residuals
n = number of observations

3.4.7 Relative (Error) Precision

The total amount of error in a given measurement should relate to the magnitude
of the measured quantity in order to indicate the accuracy of a measurement. Relative
error, sometimes called relative precision, is expressed by a fraction having the
magnitude of the error in the numerator and the magnitude of a measured quantity in the
denominator. For example, if for a particular measurement the probable error of the mean
is 0.10 m and the most probable value of the measurement is 235.50 m, the relative
precision (RP) would be expressed as 0.10/235.50 or 1/2355, also written as 1:2355.

Illustrative Problem:
The following values were determined in a series of tape measurements of a line:
1000.58, 1000.40, 1000.38, 1000.48, 1000.40, and 1000.46 meters. Determine the
following:

a) Most probable value of the measured length;

b) Probable error of a single measurement and probable error of the mean;
c) Final expression for the most probable length; and
d) Relative precision of the measurement
a) Solving for the most probable value:

Solution:
𝑛=6
∑ 𝑥 = 𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 + 𝑥4 + 𝑥5 + 𝑥6
= 1000.58 + 1000.40 + 1000.38 + 1000.48 + 1000.40 + 1000.46
= 6002.70 𝑚

∑𝑥 6002.70
𝑚𝑝𝑣 𝑜𝑟 𝑥̅ = 𝑛
= 6
= 1000.45 𝑚

b) Solving for the probable error of a single measurement and probable error of the mean:
𝑣1 = (𝑥1 − 𝑥̅ ) = 1000.58 − 1000.45 = +0.13
𝑣2 = (𝑥2 − 𝑥̅ ) = 1000.40 − 1000.45 = −0.05
𝑣3 = (𝑥3 − 𝑥̅ ) = 1000.38 − 1000.45 = −0.07
𝑣4 = (𝑥4 − 𝑥̅ ) = 1000.48 − 1000.45 = +0.03
𝑣5 = (𝑥5 − 𝑥̅ ) = 1000.40 − 1000.45 = −0.05
𝑣6 = (𝑥6 − 𝑥̅ ) = 1000.46 − 1000.45 = +0.01
∑ 𝑣 = 0.00

𝑣1 2 = (+0.13)2 = 0.0169 𝑣4 2 = (+0.03)2 = 0.0009

𝑣2 2 = (−0.05)2 = 0.0025 𝑣5 2 = (−0.05)2 = 0.0025
𝑣3 2 = (−0.07)2 = 0.0049 𝑣6 2 = (+0.01)2 = 0.0001

∑ 𝑣 2 = 𝑣1 2 + 𝑣2 2 + 𝑣3 2 + 𝑣4 2 + 𝑣5 2 + 𝑣6 2
= 0.0169 + 0.0025 + 0.0049 + 0.0009 + 0.0025 + 0.0001
= 0.0278
 ∑ 𝑣2 0.0278
𝑃𝐸𝑆 = ±0.6745√(𝑛−1) = ±0.6745√ (6−1) = ±0.05 𝑚 (for single measurement)

∑ 𝑣2 0.0278
𝑃𝐸𝑚 = ±0.6745√𝑛(𝑛−1) = ±0.6745√6(6−1) = ±0.02 𝑚 (for the mean)

c) Therefore the length of the measured line may be expressed as 1000.45 ± 0.02. This
means that there is a 50% chance that the true distance measured probably falls
between 1000.43 m and 1000.47 m, and that its most probable value is 1000.45 m.
There is also, however a 50% chance that the true distance lies outside this range.

d) Solving for the relative precision of the measurement:

𝑃𝐸 0.05 1
𝑅𝑃𝑠 = 𝑚𝑝𝑣𝑠 = 1000.45 = 20,000 (the relative precision of a single measurement)

𝑃𝐸
𝑚 0.02 1
𝑅𝑃𝑚 = 𝑚𝑝𝑣 = 1000.45 = 50,000 (the relative precision of the mean)

3.4.8 Weighted Observations

It is not always possible to obtain measurements of equal reliability under similar
conditions. Many surveying measurements are made under different circumstances and
conditions and therefore have different degrees of reliability. The problem often
encountered is how to combine these measurements and determine the most probable
values. For such a situation it is necessary to estimate the degree of reliability (or weight)
for each of the measurements before they are combined and the most probable values
are determined.
- In the case of repeated measurements, if a quantity is measured, for example, in
two repetitions by group A and in four repetitions by group B, then the
measurement taken by group B should be given twice the weight of the
measurement of group A. This means that the measurements of group B is
regarded as twice as reliable as that of group A.
Illustrative Problem:
Lines of levels to establish the elevation of a point are run over four different routes.
The observed elevations of the point with probable errors are given below. Determine the
most probable value of the elevation of the point.

Observed Probable Relative P=

Line (E)2 W= 1/(E)2
Elevation Error (E) Weight (RW) Elev.(RW)
1 219.832 m ±0.006 m 0.000036 27778 16.00 3517.312
2 219.930 m ±0.012 m 0.000144 6944 4.00 879.720
3 219.701 m ±0.018 m 0.000324 3086 1.78 391.068
4 220.021 m ±0.024 m 0.000576 1736 1.00 220.021

Note: A relative weight equal to 1.00 is assigned to line 4 since it has the smallest weight
(W), and the relative weights of lines 1, 2, and 3 are computed as follows:

𝑊 27778 ∑(𝑃) 5008.121

𝑅𝑊1 = 𝑊1 = = 16.00 Weighted Mean = ∑(𝑅𝑊)
=
4 1736 22.78
𝑊 6944
𝑅𝑊2 = 𝑊2 = 1736 = 4.00 = 219.847 m
4

𝑊 3086
𝑅𝑊1 = 𝑊3 = 1736 = 1.78
4

3.4.9 Interrelationship of Errors

In some instances it is required to determine how the final result is affected when
a computation involves quantities that are subject to accidental errors. Two commonly
applied principles of the theory of errors involve the summation of errors and the product
of errors. These principles are given to provide a better understanding of the propagation
of errors.

1. Summation Of Errors

𝑃𝐸𝑠 = ±√(𝑃𝐸1 )2 + (𝑃𝐸2 )2 + (𝑃𝐸3 )2 + ⋯ … . . (𝑃𝐸𝑁 )2

Where:
𝑃𝐸𝑠 = probable error of the sum
𝑃𝐸1 2 , 𝑃𝐸2 2 , 𝑒𝑡𝑐. = probable error of each measurement
𝑛 = number of value added

Illustrative Problem:
The three sides of a triangular-shaped tract of land is given by the following
measurements and corresponding probable errors: a = 162.54 ± 0.03m, b = 234.26 ±
0.05m, and c = 195.70 ± 0.04m. Determine the probable error of the sum and the most
probable value of the perimeter.

Solution:
𝑃𝐸𝑅𝐼𝑀𝐸𝑇𝐸𝑅 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 = 162.54 + 234.26 + 195.70 = 592.50 𝑚

2. Product f Errors

For a measured quantity which is determined as the product of two other

independently measured quantities such as Q1 and Q2 (with their corresponding probable
errors), the probable error of the product is given by the following equation

𝑃𝐸𝑝 = ±√(𝑄1 𝑥 𝑃𝐸2 )2 + (𝑄2 𝑥 𝑃𝐸1 )2

Where:
𝑃𝐸𝑝 = probable error of the product
𝑄1 & 𝑄2 = measured quantities
𝑃𝐸1 2 & 𝑃𝐸2 2 = probable error corresponding to each quantity measured

Illustrative Problem:
The two sides of a rectangular lot were measured with certain estimated probable
errors as follows: W = 253.36 ± 0.06m and L = 624.15 ± 0.08m. Determine the area of
the lot and the probable error in the resulting calculation.
Solution:
𝐴𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑜𝑡 = 𝐿 𝑥 𝑊 = 624.15 (253.36) = 158134.64 𝑠𝑞. 𝑚

𝑃𝐸𝑝 = ±√(𝐿 𝑥 𝑃𝐸𝑤 )2 + (𝑊 𝑥 𝑃𝐸𝑙 )2

= ±√(624.15 𝑥 0.06)2 + (253.36 𝑥 0.08)2

= ±42.58 𝑠𝑞. 𝑚 (probable error of the calculated area)

Note: Therefore the area of the lot would be expressed as 158134.64 ± 42.58 sq. m. This
means that the true area of the lot probably falls between 158092.06 sq. m and 158177.22
sq.m.
Key Points

1. Observation is a single, unadjusted determination of a linear or angular

value.
2. Measurement is the process of determining the extent, size or dimensions
of a particular quantity in comparison to a given standard.
3. Effective January 1, 1983 the English System was officially phased out in
the Philippines and only the modern metric system was allowed to be used.
4. Length may also refer to other linear dimensions such as width, depth,
thickness, height or distance.
5. Mistakes are observer blunders and are usually caused by
misunderstanding the problem, carelessness, fatigue, missed
communication, or poor judgment.
6. The three sources of errors are natural, instrumental and personal.
7. Systematic error is also known as cumulative error while accidental error is
also called random error.
8. A discrepancy is the difference between two observed values of the same
quantity.
9. Most probable value refers to a quantity which, based on available data,
has more chances of being correct than any other.
10. A residual is simply the difference between the most probable value and
any observed value of a quantity.
11. The probable error is a quantity which, when added to and subtracted from
the most probable value, defines a range within which there is a 50%
chance that the true value of the measured quantity lies inside (or outside)
the limits thus set.
References and Supplementary Materials

Books

1. Ghilani and Wolf. (2012). Elementary Surveying: An Introduction to Geomatics.

Thirteenth Edition, Prentice Hall, ISBN-13: 978-0-13-255434-3.
[Link]
2. Juny Pilapil La Putt. (1987). Elementary Surveying. Third Edition. Baguio
Research and Publishing Center. Philippines
3. Mario A. Gomarasca. (2004). Basics of Geomatics. First Edition. Associazione
Italiana di Telerilevamento. Italy

Online Supplementary Reading Materials

1. Lecture Note Course Code – BCE 206. Engineering Surveying; Retrieved

June 23, 2020.