📘 Probability One Summary Notes with Examples
1. Key Definitions
• Experiment: Any process with an uncertain outcome (e.g., tossing a coin).
• Sample Space (S): The set of all possible outcomes.
• Example: Tossing a coin → S = {H, T}
• Event (E): A subset of the sample space (e.g., getting a head).
Example
Question: Roll a fair six-sided die. What is the sample space?
Solution: The sample space is the set of all faces:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
2. Types of Events
• Simple (Elementary) Event: Single outcome.
• e.g., rolling a 4.
• Compound Event: Combination of outcomes.
• e.g., rolling an even number: {2,4,6}.
• Mutually Exclusive: Cannot occur together.
• e.g., rolling a 2 and a 5 at once.
• Exhaustive Events: Cover all outcomes.
• Independent Events: One does not affect the other.
• Dependent Events: One affects the other.
Example
Question: Draw two cards from a standard deck without replacement. Are the events “first
card is an Ace” and “second card is a King” independent?
Solution: No. The probability of drawing a King changes if the first card was an Ace. So they
are dependent events.
3. Probability Formula
Number of favorable outcomes
P (E) =
Total outcomes
1
Values range from 0 to 1.
Example
Question: In one roll of a fair die, what is the probability of rolling a 3?
Solution: One favorable outcome (3), six total:
P ({3}) = 1/6
4. Laws of Probability
Addition Rule
• Mutually exclusive: P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B)
• Not mutually exclusive: P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
Multiplication Rule
• Independent: P (A ∩ B)= P (A)P (B)
• Dependent: P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B∣A)
Example
Question: You draw two cards without replacement. Find P (both are hearts).
Solution:
P (1st heart) = 13/52 = 1/4.
P (2nd heart∣1st heart) = 12/51.
P = (1/4) × (12/51) = 12/204 = 1/17.
5. Conditional Probability
P (A ∩ B)
P (B∣A) =
P (A)
Example
Question: In a class, 60% passed Math (M), 50% passed English (E), and 30% passed both.
Find P (E∣M ) .
Solution:
P (E∣M ) = P (E ∩ M )/P (M ) = 0.30/0.60 = 0.50.
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6. Complementary Events
P (Ac ) = 1 − P (A)
Example
Question: A fair die is rolled. What is the probability of not rolling a 5?
Solution:
P (5) = 1/6 so P (not 5) = 1 − 1/6 = 5/6.
7. Tree Diagrams & Tables
• Visual tool for multi-stage experiments.
Example
Question: Flip a coin then roll a die. Find probability of (Heads, 4).
Solution:
Tree branches: H→1..6, T→1..6.
P (H) = 1/2, P (4) = 1/6.
Combined: (1/2) × (1/6) = 1/12.
8. Venn Diagrams
• Show unions (A ∪ B ), intersections (A ∩ B ), exclusives.
Example
Question: In a survey, 70 people like tea (T), 50 like coffee (C), 30 like both. Total 100. Find
P (T ∪ C).
Solution:
P (T ∪ C) = (70 + 50 − 30)/100 = 90/100 = 0.9.
9. Bayes’ Theorem
P (B∣A)P (A)
P (A∣B) =
P (B)
Example
Question: A test detects a disease 95% true positive, 5% false positive. Disease prevalence is
1%. If test is positive, what's the chance of disease?
Solution:
3
P (D) = 0.01, P (+∣D) = 0.95, P (+∣Dc ) = 0.05.
0.95×0.01
P (D∣+) = 0.95×0.01+0.05×0.99 ≈ 0.161.
10. Classical vs Empirical Probability
• Classical: Theoretical (e.g., dice).
• Empirical: Based on data (e.g., experiment outcomes).
Example
Question: You observe 1000 coin flips; 540 heads. What is the empirical probability of heads?
Solution:
P (heads) = 540/1000 = 0.54.
11. Probability Distributions (Intro)
• Discrete: Specific values (e.g., Binomial).
• Continuous: Ranges (covered later).
Example
Question: Toss a coin 3 times. Distribution of number of heads?
Solution: Binomial with n = 3, p = 0.5 .
P (X = k) = (k3)(0.5)3 .
12. Important Tips
• P (S) =1.
• Reduce fractions.
• Check independence before multiplication.
• Use visual aids to avoid mistakes.
Example
Question: Are rolling an odd number and rolling >4 independent on a single die?
Solution:
Odd: {1,3,5} → P=3/6=1/2.
4: {5,6}→ P=2/6=1/3.
Intersection: {5} → P=1/6.
Check: (1/2)*(1/3)=1/6, equals P(intersection) → independent.
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End of Summary Notes.