Scribd
Upload
2 views2 pages

MMFD Reflection

The reflection discusses the effectiveness of various forecasting models applied to actual demand data, highlighting that basic techniques like naïve forecasting and moving averages were insufficient. The use of exponential smoothing and a multiplicative seasonal forecasting model provided more accurate results by accounting for trends and seasonality. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of organizing data to choose the appropriate forecasting method, as poor forecasting can lead to operational issues.

Uploaded by

leshootito
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
2 views2 pages

MMFD Reflection

The reflection discusses the effectiveness of various forecasting models applied to actual demand data, highlighting that basic techniques like naïve forecasting and moving averages were insufficient. The use of exponential smoothing and a multiplicative seasonal forecasting model provided more accurate results by accounting for trends and seasonality. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity of organizing data to choose the appropriate forecasting method, as poor forecasting can lead to operational issues.

Uploaded by

leshootito
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

1

MMFD Reflection

Saraswati

V00071619

University of Victoria

10th March, 2026


2

Reflection

The assignment allowed me to realize the performance of various forecasting models

when used with actual demand data. Basic forecasting techniques such as naïve forecasting

and moving averages provided simple estimates but did not fully capture patterns in the

demand data. The introduction of exponential smoothing resulted in a better forecast since the

technique gives more importance to recent observations. Nevertheless, both trend and

seasonal patterns were well represented in the data, which constrained the usefulness of

simple models.

Multiplicative seasonal forecasting model yielded more realistic results due to the

aspect of both trend and seasonality involved in the calculation. This illustrated the

importance of the high-level forecasting techniques in enhancing demand forecasts under

actual business situations.

One of the important conclusions of this assignment is that the organization of the

data must influence the choice of the forecasting method. It is important that businesses

analyze whether demand has trends, seasonal variations, or random changes to be able to

select a forecasting model. Operation planning needs to be accurately forecasted as

ineffective forecasting will result in missed sales, shortages in production, and higher

operational expenses.

You might also like