Power System Reliability
Tutorials
1. Define the following terms:
a. Permutations c. Probability
b. Combinations d. Reliability
2. What is Bath-tub curve? Explain it in brief with neat and clean plot.
3. Show that for any general distribution the following relation is valid:
𝑓(𝑡)
𝜆(𝑡) =
1 − 𝑄(𝑡)
Where 𝜆(𝑡) = failure rate function
4. List out the methods for modelling and evaluating complex structures. Explain any one
method in details with suitable examples.
5. The probability that a 30 years old man will survive a fixed time period is 0.995. An
insurance company offers him a $2000 insurance policy for this period for a premium of
$20. What is the company's expected gain? (Ans: $10)
6. The probability that a man will be alive in 10 years is 0.8 and the probability that his wife
will be alive in 10 years is 0.9. Find the probability that in 10 years:
a. Both will be alive; c. Only the wife will be alive;
b. Only the man will be alive; d. At least one will be alive.
(Ans: 0.72, 0.08, 0.18, 0.98)
7. Two dice are tossed together. Let A be the event that the sum of the faces is odd, B the
event that at least one is a one. What is the probability that:
a. Both A and B occur;
b. Either A or B or both occur;
c. A and not B occurs;
d. B and not A occurs
(Ans: 6/36, 23/36, 1/3, 5/36)
8. A coin is tossed 5 times. Evaluate the probability of each possible outcomes and draw the
probability mass function and distribution functions.
9. An electric power system supplied from a total of 10 generating units. Calculates the
probability of having
a. 2 b. 5 c. 8
Units being out of services simultaneously, given that the outage (q) of each unit is 0.06.
10. The failure of power transformer is assumed to follow Poisson probability distribution.
Suppose on average, a transformer fails once every 5 years then what is the probability of
i. That it will not fail in the next 12 months.
ii. That it will fail once in the next 24 months. (Ans: 0.8187, 0.2681)
11. A pumping station has two 20,000 gal/hr. pumps and is to have one 40,000 gal/hr. pump
installed. Draw up a pumping capacity outage probability table for this system given that
the unavailability for the 20,000 and 40,000 gal/hr. pumps are 0.2 and 0.1 respectively.
12. A pumping station has 2 x 20 t/hr. units and 1 x 30 t/hr. unit. Each unit has an unavailability
of 0.1. Calculate the capacity outage probability table for this plant.
13. A 60 MW generation plant consists of one 20 MW and four 10 MW units. The plants must
satisfy a load demand of 45 MW. What is the loss of load probability (LOLP) and the
expected load loss (ELL)? Each 10 MW units has an unavailability or FOR of 0.1 and the
20 MW units has FOR of 0.15.
14. On the basis of Network Modelling concepts, explain the three types of network models/
system with suitable examples.
15. A system consists of four components in parallel having reliabilities of 0.99, 0.95, 0.98 and
0.97. What is the reliability and unreliability of the system?
16. A system is to be designed with an overall reliability of 0.999 using components having
individual reliabilities of 0.7. What is the minimum number of components that must be
connected in parallel? (Ans: 5.74 ≈ 6)
17. Derive a general expression for the unreliability of the model shown in figure below and
hence evaluate the unreliability of the system if all components have a reliability of 0.8.
18. A series system has identical components each having a reliability of 0.998. What is the
maximum number of components that can be allowed if the minimum system reliability is
to be 0.90? (Ans: 52.627 ≈ 53)
19. Consider the figure below. Evaluate the reliability of this system if A has a reliability of
0.9, B has a reliability given A has failed of 0.96 and,
a. the switch is perfect,
b. the switch has a probability of failing to changeover of 0.08, and
c. as (b) but the switch has an operating reliability of 0.98.
20. List out the different technique to determine reliability of complex structure or network.
Explain any one technique in details with examples.
21. Evaluate the reliability of the system shown below using conditional probability and cut
set methods if each component has a reliability of 0.99.
22. Consider the fault tree shown below. Evaluate the probability of occurrence of the top event
T when:
a. all basic events are independent of each other
b. basic event E3 is the same as basic event E6, i.e., these events represent the same
failure mode of the same component.
Assume P(E1) = 0.15, P(E2) = 0.01, P(E3) = P(E3)= 0.05, P(E4) = 0.50, P(E5) = 0.06
(Ans: 0.119245, 0.11593)
23. Use the cut set method to evaluate the reliability, unreliability and the expected yearly
outage time of the system shown below in figure. Draw also the minimal cut sets of the
system given that RG = 0.92 and RL = 0.95. Assuming the reliability of all lines are equal.
24. Use the Tie-set method to evaluate the reliability, unreliability and the expected outage time
of the system shown in figure. Draw a minimal tie set of the system given that that RG =
0.92 and RL = 0.95. Assume that reliability of all lines are equal.
25. Use the probabilistic approach to derive an expression for the reliability of the double bus
bar with breaker and a half scheme shown in figure. Hence calculate the reliability,
unreliability and the yearly outage time in hour for the feeder F1, if the element reliabilities
are equal for all sections of the system. RA = RB = RC = 0.9500.
26. In a large system the average number of cable faults per year per 100 km of cable is 0.5.
Consider a specified piece of cable 10 km long and evaluate the probabilities of 0, 1, 2,
etc., faults occurring in (a) a 20 years period, and (b) a 40 years period.
27. The probability of success in a single trial is 0.1. Calculate the probability that in 10 trials
there will be exactly two successes using (a) the binomial distribution, and (b) the Poisson
distribution. (Ans: 0.1937, 0.1839)
28. A simple electronic circuit consists of 6 transistors each having a failure rate of 10-6 f/hr, 4
diodes each having a failure rate of 0.5 x 10-6 f/hr, 3 capacitors each having a failure rate
of 0.2 x 10-6 f/hr, 10 resistors each having a failure rate of 5 x 10-6 f/hr and 2 switches
each having a failure rate of 2 x 10-6 f/hr. Assuming connectors and wiring are 100%
reliable (these can be included if considered significant), evaluate the equivalent failure
rate of the system and the probability of the system surviving 1000 hr and also 10,000 hr
if all components must operate for system success.
29. Calculate the reliability of the system shown in Figure below, For a 1000 hr mission. Also
,calculate the mean time to failure for this system. Given that:
λ1 = 1 X 10-5 f/hr; λ3= 2 X 10-4 f/hr; λ2 = 10 X 10-5 f/hr; λ4 = 5 X 10-5 f/hr.
30. Consider the 3-state system shown below and the transition probabilities indicated.
Evaluate:
i. the limiting state probabilities as sociated with each state and,
ii. the average number of time intervals spent in each state if state 3 is defined as an
absorbing state.