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Interest Rates

The document discusses the concept of interest rates, focusing on the yield to maturity as the most accurate measure. It covers various credit market instruments, calculations of present value, and the distinction between real and nominal interest rates. Additionally, it highlights the relationship between interest rates, bond prices, and returns, emphasizing the impact of interest rate changes on bond volatility and returns.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
6 views26 pages

Interest Rates

The document discusses the concept of interest rates, focusing on the yield to maturity as the most accurate measure. It covers various credit market instruments, calculations of present value, and the distinction between real and nominal interest rates. Additionally, it highlights the relationship between interest rates, bond prices, and returns, emphasizing the impact of interest rate changes on bond volatility and returns.

Uploaded by

timothynjagi43
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Interest Rates

Hillary Ekisa, PhD

Strathmore Institute of Mathematical Sciences

Strathmore University

September 15, 2025

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Preview

❑ Before we can go on with the study of money,


banking, and financial markets, we must understand
exactly what the phrase interest rates means. In this
Lecture, we see that a concept known as the yield to
maturity is the most accurate measure of interest
rate.

2 / 26
Learning Objectives

❑ Calculate the present value of future cash flows


and the yield to maturity on the four types of
credit market instruments.
❑ Recognize the distinctions among yield to
maturity, current yield, rate of return, and rate
of capital gain.
❑ Interpret the distinction between real and
nominal interest rates.

3 / 26
Measuring Interest Rates
❑ Present value: a dollar paid to you one year
from now is less valuable than a dollar paid to
you today.
❖ Why: a dollar deposited today can earn
interest and become $1×(1+i) one year
from today.
❖ To understand the importance of this
notion, consider the value of a $20 million
lottery payout today versus a payment of
$1 million per year for each of the next 20
years. Are these two values the same?
4 / 26
Future Cash Flow (Payment)

Let i = .10 (interest rate per annum)


Let Present Value (PV)=$100
In one year: $100 × (1 + 0.10) = $110
In two years: $110 × (1 + 0.10) = $121
or $100 × (1 + 0.10)2
In three years: $121 × (1 + 0.10) = $133
or $100 × (1 + 0.10)3
In n years
Future Cash Flow(CF)=PV × (1 + i)n

5 / 26
Simple Present Value (1 of 2)

PV = today’s (present) value


CF = future cash flow (payment)
i = the interest rate

Equation 1:
CF
PV =
(1 + i )n

6 / 26
Simple Present Value (2 of 2)

❑ Cannot directly compare payments scheduled in different


points in the time line.

7 / 26
Four Types of Credit Market Instruments

❑ Simple Loan
❑ Fixed Payment Loan
❑ Coupon Bond
❑ Discount Bond

8 / 26
Yield to Maturity

❑ Yield to maturity: the interest rate that equates


the value of cash flow payments received from a
debt instrument with its value today.

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Yield to Maturity on a Simple Loan

PV = amount borrowed = $100


CF = cash flow in one year = $110
n = number of years = 1
$110
$100 =
(1 + i )1
(1 + i ) $100 = $110
$110
(1 + i ) =
$100
i = 0.10 = 10%
For simple loans, the simple interest rate equals the
yield to maturity

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Fixed-Payment Loan

❑ The same cash flow payment every period throughout the


life of the loan.
LV = loan value
FP = fixed yearly payment
n = number of years until maturity

Equation 2:
FP FP FP FP
LV = + 2
+ 3
+ ... +
1 + i (1 + i ) (1 + i ) (1 + i )n

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Coupon Bond (1 of 6)

❑ Using the same strategy used for the fixed-payment loan:


P = price of coupon bond
C = yearly coupon payment
F = face value of the bond
n = years to maturity date

Equation 3:

C C C C F
P= + 2
+ 3
+. . . + +
1+ i (1+ i ) (1+ i ) n
(1+ i ) (1+ i )n

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Coupon Bond (2 of 6)

❑ A coupon bond is
identified by four
pieces of information:
1. Face value
2. Agencies that issue
this bond
3. Maturity date
4. The coupon rate

Source: [Link]

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Coupon Bond (3 of 6)

❑ When the coupon bond is priced at its face value, the yield to
maturity equals the coupon rate.

❖ We can show the statement by using simple algebra:


∙ ∙ ∙
𝑃= + 2
+ 3
…+
1+ 1+ 1+ 1+
1 1
1− 1+
1 1+
→ 1− 𝑃= 𝑃∙ if 𝑃 =
1+ 1
1−1+
=

14 / 26
Coupon Bond (4 of 6)

❑ The price of a coupon bond and the yield to


maturity are negatively related.

❑ The yield to maturity is greater than the coupon


rate when the bond price is below its face value.

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Coupon Bond (5 of 6)

Table 1 Yields to Maturity on a 10%-Coupon-Rate Bond Maturing


in Ten Years (Face Value = $1,000)

Price of Bond ($) Yield to Maturity (%)


1,200 7.13
1,100 8.48
1,000 10.00
900 11.75
800 13.81

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Coupon Bond (6 of 6)

❑ Consol or perpetuity: a bond with no maturity date that does


not repay principal but pays fixed coupon payments forever.

𝑃 = /
𝑃 = price of the consol
= yearly interest payment
= yield to maturity of the consol
One can rewrite the equation as: = /𝑃
For coupon bonds, this equation gives the current yield, an easy
way to calculate approximation to the yield to maturity

17 / 26
Discount Bond

For any one year discount bond


F − P
i=
P
F = Face value of the discount bond
P = Current price of the discount bond

The yield to maturity equals the increase in price over the


year divided by the initial price.

As with a coupon bond, the yield to maturity is negatively


related to the current bond price.

18 / 26
The Distinction Between Interest Rates and
Returns (1 of 4)

Rate of Return:
The payments to the owner plus the change in value
expressed as a fraction of the purchase price
C P − Pt
RET = + t +1
Pt Pt
RET = return from holding the bond from time t to time t + 1
Pt = price of bond at time t
Pt +1 = price of the bond at time t + 1
C = coupon payment
C
= current yield = ic
Pt
Pt +1 − Pt
= rate of capital gain = g
Pt

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The Distinction Between Interest Rates and
Returns (2 of 4)

❑ The return equals the yield to maturity only if the holding period
equals the time to maturity.
❑ A rise in interest rates is associated with a fall in bond prices,
resulting in a capital loss if time to maturity is longer than the
holding period.
❑ The more distant a bond’s maturity, the greater the size of the
percentage price change associated with an interest-rate
change.
❑ Interest rates do not always have to be positive as evidenced
by recent experience in Japan and several European states.
20 / 26
The Distinction Between Interest Rates and
Returns (3 of 4)

❑ The more distant a bond’s maturity, the lower the rate


of return that occurs as a result of an increase in the
interest rate.

❑ Even if a bond has a substantial initial interest rate, its


return can be negative if interest rates rise.

21 / 26
The Distinction Between Interest Rates and
Returns (4 of 4)

Table 2 One-Year Returns on Different-Maturity 10%-Coupon-


Rate Bonds When Interest Rates Rise from 10% to 20%
(1) (2) (3) (5)
Years to Maturity Initial Initial (4) Rate of (6)
When Bond Is Current Price Price Next Capital Gain Rate of Return
Purchased Yield (%) ($) Year* ($) (%) [col (2) + col (5)] (%)
30 10 1,000 503 −49.7 −39.7
20 10 1,000 516 −48.4 −38.4
10 10 1,000 597 −40.3 −30.3
5 10 1,000 741 −25.9 −15.9
2 10 1,000 917 −8.3 +1.7
1 10 1,000 1,000 0.0 +10.0
*Calculated with a financial calculator, using Equation 3.

22 / 26
Maturity and the Volatility of Bond Returns:
Interest-Rate Risk

❑ Prices and returns for long-term bonds are more


volatile than those for shorter-term bonds.
❑ There is no interest-rate risk for any bond whose
time to maturity matches the holding period.

23 / 26
The Distinction Between Real and Nominal Interest
Rates

❑ Nominal interest rate makes no allowance for


inflation.
❑ Real interest rate is adjusted for changes in
price level so it more accurately reflects the
cost of borrowing.
❖ Ex ante real interest rate is adjusted for
expected changes in the price level.
❖ Ex post real interest rate is adjusted for
actual changes in the price level.

24 / 26
Fisher Equation

i = ir +  e
i = nominal interest rate
ir = real interest rate
 e = expected inflation rate
When the real interest rate is low,
there are greater incentives to borrow and fewer incentives to lend.
The real interest rate is a better indicator of the incentives to
borrow and lend.

25 / 26
Figure 1 Real and Nominal Interest Rates (Three-Month
Treasury Bill), 1953–2017

Sources: Nominal rates from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database:
[Link] The real rate is constructed using the procedure outlined in
Frederic S. Mishkin, “The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation,” Carnegie-Rochester
Conference Series on Public Policy 15 (1981): 151–200. This procedure involves estimating expected
inflation as a function of past interest rates, inflation, and time trends, and then subtracting the
expected inflation measure from the nominal interest rate.

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