NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF INSURANCE & ACTUARIAL SCIENCE

1. The masses of packages from a particular machine are normally distributed with a mean of 200g and
a standard deviation of 2g. Find the probability that a randomly selected package from the machine
weighs:
a) Less than 197g
b) More than 200.5g
c) Between 198.5g and 199.5g

2. The customer service department for a wholesale electronics outlet claims that 90% of all customer
complaints are resolved to the satisfaction of the customer. In order to test this claim, a random
sample of 15 customers who have filed complaints is selected.
i) Use the binomial formula to find each of the following probabilities:
a) At most 13 customers had their complaints resolved to their satisfaction.
b) Not less than 11 customers had their complaints resolved to their satisfaction.
c) Between 9 and 12 inclusive had their complaints resolved to their satisfaction.
d) At most 2 customers had their complaints not resolved to their satisfaction.
e) Not more than 9 customers had their complaints not resolved to their satisfaction.

3. Thirty percent of all customers who enter a store will make a purchase. Suppose that six customers
enter the store and that these customers make independent purchase decisions. Let x = the number
of the six customers who will make a purchase.
i) Use the binomial formula to calculate the probability that:
a) Exactly 5 customers make a purchase.
b) At least 3 customers make a purchase.
c) 2 or fewer customers make a purchase.
d) At least 1 customer makes a purchase.

4. In how many ways can the letters of the word ENGLISH be arranged?
What is the probability that an arrangement begins with E and ends with S?

5. Four persons are chosen at random from a group of ten persons consisting of 4 men and six women.
3 of the women are sisters. Calculate the probabilities that the 4 persons chosen will:
a) Consist of 4 women
b) Consist of 2 women and 2 men
c) Include the 3 sisters
6. A touring party of 20 cricketers consists of 9 batsmen, 8 bowlers and 3 wicket-keepers. A team of 11
players must have at least 5 batmen, 4 bowlers and 1 wicket-keeper. How many different teams can
be selected:
a) If all the players are available for selection?
b) If 2 batsmen and 1 bowler are injured and cannot play?

7. The number of applicants for a job is 15. Calculate the number of different ways in which 6
applicants can be selected for interview.
The 6 selected applicants are interviewed on a particular day.
a) Calculate the number of ways in which the order of the 6 interviews can be arranged.
b) Of the 6 applicants interviewed, 3 have backgrounds in business, 2 have in education and 1 in
recreation. Calculate the number of ways in which the order of the 6 interviews can be arranged
when applicants having the same background are interviewed successively.

8. A factory has 3 machines A, B and C producing large numbers of a product. Of the total daily
production, 50% are produced on A, 30% on B and 20% on C. Records show that 2% of items
produced on A are defective, 3% on B are defective and 4% on C are defective. The occurrence of a
defective item is independent of all other items. One item is chosen at random from a day’s total
output.
a) Show that the probability of its being defective is 0.027
b) Given that it is defective, find the probability that it was produced on machine A.

Hint: use a tree diagram.

9. The random variable X has a probability distribution function P(X=x) for x=5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 as defined
in the table:

X 5 6 7 8 9 10
P(X=x) 7 4 1 3 6 11
32 32 32 32 32 32

Find:
i) The expectation
ii) Variance
iii) Standard deviation

10. Using a business example, explain the following terms:

11. For each of the following, indicate whether the random variable is discrete or continuous.
a) The length of time taken to get a haircut
b) The number of cars a jogger passes each morning while running
c) The number of hits for a team in a university baseball game
 d) The number of patients treated in a hospital between 6 and 10pm
e) The distance a car travels to the fuel station
f) The number of customers at the Chicken-Inn drive-thru facility
g) The distance between Bulawayo & Victoria Falls
h) The number of brands of beans on a supermarket shelf

12. A card is picked at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. It is then replaced and a second card is
picked. Find the probability that:
a) Both cards are the 7 of diamonds
b) The first card is a heart and the second a spade
c) One card is from a black suit and the other is from a red suit
d) At least 1 card is a queen
e) Compute (a), (b), (c) and (d) without replacement.

13. A bag contains 4 red counters and six black counters. A counter is picked at random from the bag
and not replaced. A second counter is then picked. Find the probability that:
a) The second counter is red, given that the first counter is red.
b) Both counters are red.
c) The counters are of different colours.

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14. The probability that a person in a particular evening class is left-handed is . From a class of 15
6
women and 5 men a person is chosen at random. Assuming that ‘left-handedness’ is independent of
the gender of a person, find the probability that the person chosen is a man or is left-handed.

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15. A die is known to be biased in such a way that, when it is thrown, the probability of a 6 showing is
4
. This biased die and an ordinary fair die are thrown. Find the probability that:
a) The fair die shows a 6 and the biased die does not show a 6.
b) At least one of the two die shows a 6.
c) Exactly one of the two dice shows a six, given that at least one of them shows a 6.

16. In each round of a certain game, a player can score 1, 2 or 3 only. Copy and complete the table
which shows the scores and two of the respective probabilities of these being scored in a single
round.

Score 1 2 3
Probability 4 ❑ 1
7 ❑ 7
Draw a tree diagram to show all the possible total scores and their respective probabilities after a
player has completed 2 rounds.
Find the probability that a player has:
a) A score of 4 after two rounds
b) An odd number score after two rounds
17. A die is thrown 3 times. What is the probability of scoring a two on just 1 occasion?

18. A coin is tossed four times. Find the probability of obtaining less than 2 heads.

19. If a random variable is normally distributed, what percentage of all possible observations of x will
be:
a) Within 1 standard deviation of the mean?
b) Within 2 standard deviations of the mean?
c) Within 3 standard deviations of the mean?

20. The demand (in number of copies per day) for a city newspaper is listed below with corresponding
probabilities:
x = Demand p(x)
50 000 .1
70 000 .25
90 000 .4
110 000 .2
130 000 .05
a) Find the expected demand and standard deviation.

21. Suppose You are trying to develop a strategy for investing in two different stocks. The anticipated
annual return for a $1 000 investment in each stock has the following probability distribution:

Returns
Probability Stock X Stock Y
0.1 -$100 $50
0.3 $0 $150
0.3 $80 -$20
0.3 $150 -$100
Compute the,
a) Expected return for stock X.
b) Expected return for stock Y.
c) Standard deviation for stock X.
d) Standard deviation for stock Y.
e) Which stock should you invest in? Explain.

22. Suppose that x is the average number of customers walking into a mall per minute, and x has a
Poisson distribution with μ = 2. Find the probability that:
a) Exactly 2 customers walk in per minute
b) At most 4 customers walk in per minute
c) Less than 4 customers walk in in 4 minutes
d) Between 1 and 2 customers walk in per minute
e) Between 1 and 4 inclusive walk in in 10 minutes
f) Not less than 5 customers walk in in 5 minutes
 g) At least 6 walk in in 5 minutes

23. The following table shows 1 000 adult shoppers cross-classified on the basis of social class and the
shop (S) from which they make most of their clothing purchases:

Social Class Shops bought from Total

S1 S2 S3 S4

Low 110 214 16 58 398

Medium 152 170 22 52 396

High 52 36 16 102 206

Total 314 420 54 212 1 000

What is the probability that:

i) a shopper makes a purchase from S1?

24. The average number of holiday trips per family is Poisson distributed, with a mean of 1.7 trips per
year. What is the probability of randomly selecting a family and finding the following:
a) The family did not make a holiday trip last year?
b) The family made not more than 3 trips last year?
c) The family took exactly four holiday trips during a six-month period?
d) The family made exactly 4 trips in a period of 3 years?

25. Let x be a normally distributed random variable having mean μ = 30 and standard deviation σ = 5.
Find the z value for each of the following observed values of x
i) x < 25
ii) 15 < x < 32
iii) x > 40
iv) 35 < x < 50