MADDA WALABU UNIVERSITY

Introduction to Statistics for

Information Science Students

Department of Statistics
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5. Elementary probability
1. Introduction
Probability theory is the foundation upon which the
logic of inference is built.
It helps us to cope up with uncertainty.
In general, probability is the chance of an outcome
of an experiment. It is the measure of how likely an
outcome is to occur.

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5.2 Definitions of some probability terms:

1. Experiment: Any process of observation or

measurement or any process which generates well
defined outcome.
2. Probability Experiment: It is an experiment that can
be repeated any number of times under similar
conditions and it is possible to enumerate the total
number of outcomes without predicting an
individual outcome. It is also called random
experiment.
Example: If a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all
the possible outcomes i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible
to predict which outcome will occur.

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 Definitions of some probability terms:

3. Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment

4. Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability
experiment
Find the sample space of tossing a coin three times.
S= {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
5. Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one
or more outcomes of a random experiment .They are denoted by
capital letters.
Example: Considering a fair die rolled once then let A be the
event of odd numbers, B be the event of even numbers, and C be
the event of number 8.
 A  1,3,5
B  2,4,6
C    or empty space or impossibleevent

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 Definitions of some probability terms:

Remark:
If S (sample space) has n members then there are exactly 2n
subsets or events.
•Impossible event: - is an event which will never occur.
[Link] Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of
occurring.
[Link] of an Event: the complement of an event A means
non-occurrence of A and is denoted by contains those points of the
sample space which don’t belong to A.
[Link] Event: an event having only a single element or
sample point.
[Link] Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen at
the same time.
[Link] Events: Two events are independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the other
occurring.
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 Definitions of some probability terms:
[Link] Events: Two events are dependent if the first event
affects the outcome or occurrence of the second event in a way the
probability is changed.
Example: .What is the sample space for the following experiment
a)Toss a die one time.
b)Toss a coin two times.
c)A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life length by
time.
Solution
a)S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
b)S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
c)S={t /t≥0}
 Sample space can be
 Countable ( finite or infinite)
 Uncountable.

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5.3 Counting rules:

In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know

 The number of elements of an event
 The number of elements of the sample space.
That is in order to judge what is probable, we have to know
what is possible.
 In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use
several rules of counting.
- The addition rule
- The multiplication rule
- Permutation rule
- Combination rule

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Counting rules:

 To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device

called tree diagram is used.
Example: A student goes to the nearest snack to have a breakfast.
He can take tea, coffee, or milk with bread, cake and sandwich.
How many possibilities does he have?
Solutions:

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Counting rules:

The addition rule:

Suppose that the 1st procedure designed by 1 can be
performed in n1 ways. Assume that 2nd procedure designed by
2 can be performed in n2 ways.
suppose further more that, it is not possible that both
procedures 1 and 2 are performed together then the number of
ways in which we can perform 1 or 2 procedure is n1+n2 ways,
and also if we have another procedure that is designed by k
with possible way of nk we can conclude that there is
n1+n2+…+nk possible ways.
Example: suppose we planning a trip and are deciding by bus and train
transportation. If there are 3 bus routes and 2 train routes to go from A to
B. find the available routes for the trip.
Solution:
There are 3+2 =5 routes for someone to go from A to B.
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Counting rules:

The Multiplication Rule:

If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in
n1 ways, the second can be made in n2 ways… the kth can be
made in nk ways, then the whole choice can be made in
(n1 * n2 * ........* nk ) ways.
Example 1
An air line has 6 flights from A to B, and 7 flights from B to C
per day. If the flights are to be made on separate days, in how
many different ways can the airline offer from A to C?
Solution: In operation 1 there are 6 flights from A to B, 7
flights are available to make flight from B to C. Altogether
there are 6*7 = 42 possible flights from A to C.

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Counting rules:

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Counting rules:

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Counting rules:

Combination
A selection of objects without regard to order is called combination.
Example: Given the letters A, B, C, and D list the permutation and
combination for selecting two letters.
Solutions:
Permutation
AB BA CA DA
AC BC CB DB
AD BD CD DC
Combination
AB BC Note that: In permutation AB is different from AB, But
AC BD in Combination AB is the same as BA.
AD BC

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Counting rules:

Combination Rule
The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is
denoted by
 n
n Cr or 
r
 
:

 n n!
  
 r  (n  r )!*r!
Examples:
•In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?
Solutions:
n9 , r 5
n n! 9!
     126 ways
 r  (n  r )!*r! 4!*5!
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5.3 Approaches to measuring

Approaches to measuring Probability

:
There are four different conceptual approaches to the study
of probability theory. These are:
 The classical approach.
 The frequentist approach.
 The axiomatic approach.
 The subjective approach.

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Approaches to measuring

The classical approach

This approach is used when:
- All outcomes are equally likely.
:
- Total number of outcome is finite, say N.
Definition: If a random experiment with N equally likely outcomes
is conducted and out of these NA outcomes are favourable to the
event A, then the probability that event A occur denoted P(A) is
defined as:
N A No. of outcomes favourableto A n( A)
P( A)   
N Total numberof outcomes n( S )

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Approaches to measuring

Examples:
1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c)
: An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solution:
First identify the sample space, say S
S  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
 N  n( S )  6
a) Let A be the event of number 4
A  4
 N A  n( A)  1
n( A)
P ( A)  1 6
n( S )

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Approaches to measuring

a) Let A be the event of odd numbers

A  1,3,5
 N A  n( A)  3
n( A)
P ( A)   3 6  0.5
: n( S )

b) Let A be the event of even numbers

A  2,4,6
 N A  n( A)  3
n( A)
P ( A)   3 6  0.5
n( S )
c) Let A be the event of number 8
A Ø
 N A  n( A)  0
n( A)
P( A)  0 60
n( S )

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Approaches to measuring

The Frequentist Approach

This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to
an event.
Definition: The probability of an event A is the proportion of
outcomes favourable to A in the long run when the experiment is
repeated under
:
same condition.
NA
P ( A)  lim
N  N

Therefore the probability of the event A happening in the long run

is given by:
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑘
P(A) = =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑛
In other words given a frequency distribution, the probability of an
event (A) being
𝐹𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐴
in a given class is P(A) =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

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Approaches to measuring

Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced

are defective. What is the probability of a newly produced bulb to
be defective?:
Solution:
Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.
NA 60
P( A)  lim   0.0006
N  N 100,000

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Approaches to measuring

Axiomatic Approach:
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated
with E. With each event A a real number called the probability of
A satisfies the following properties called axioms of probability or
postulates of: probability.
1. P( A)  0
2. P(S )  1, S is the sure event.
3. Suppose A and B are two events of a sample space, then
P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability that
one or the other occur equals the sum of the two probabilities.
2. i. e. P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
3. P( A' )  1  P( A)
4. 0  P( A)  1
5. P(ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.
In general p( A  B)  p( A)  p( B)  p( A  B)
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Approaches to measuring

Conditional probability and independence

Conditional Events: If the occurrence of one event has an effect
on the next: occurrence of the other event then the two events are
conditional or dependent events.
Probability of Independent Events
Two events A and B are independent if and only if
p A  B   p A. pB 

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 The End

Thank You!!!
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