Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Upjohn Institute Press

CHAPTER – 1
Project Identification
Process and Selection

Manoj Kumar
Management Department,
Management Education & Research Institute,
Janakpuri Institutional Area,
New Delhi – 110058,
India.

Chapter 1 (pp. 1- 49) in:

PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE
Manoj Kumar, eds.
Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment
Research, 2023
DOI: 10.17848/9780880994026.ch1

Copyright ©2023. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment

Research. All rights reserved.

1
Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
BODY OF
KNOWLEDGE
Manoj Kumar
Editors

2023

W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment

Research Kalamazoo, Michigan, United States
of America

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY OF KNOWLEDGE

/Manoj Kumar editors.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN-13: 978-0-88099-370-8 (pbk. : alk. paper)

ISBN-10: 0-88099-370-7 (pbk. : alk. paper)

ISBN-13: 978-0-88099-371-5 (hardcover : alk. paper)

ISBN-10: 0-88099-371-5 (hardcover : alk. paper)

1. Occupational training—Government policy—United States. 2. Occupational

training—Government policy—United States—Evaluation. 3. Occupational training—Law
and legislation—United States. 4. Employees—Training of—Law and legislation—United
States. 5. Vocational guidance—Law and legislation—United States. 6. United States.
Workforce Investment Act of 1998. I. Besharov, Douglas J.

II. Cottingham, Phoebe H.

HD5715.2.W666 2011

370.1130973—dc22

2011010981

© 2023
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
300 S. Westnedge Avenue
Kalamazoo, Michigan 49007-4686, United States of America.

The facts presented in this study and the observations and viewpoints expressed are the sole
responsibility of the author. They do not necessarily represent positions of the W.E. Upjohn
Institute for Employment Research.

Cover design by Alcorn Publication Design.

Index prepared by Diane Worden.
Printed in the United States of America.
Printed on recycled paper.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Chapter 2 : Project Identification Process and

Selection

Manoj Kumar
Management Department,
Management Education & Research Institute,
Janakpuri Institutional Area,
New Delhi – 110058,
India.

UNIT INFORMATION

Unit Overview
This unit focuses upon the identification, formulation, and design stages of the
project cycle. It provides guidance regarding setting project objectives and reviewing
alternative approaches to solve a given development problem. It emphasises the
involvement of stakeholders from the outset of project identification. A logical framework
(‘Logframe’) is introduced as a tool for project formulation, appraisal and management.
Other tools are introduced for assessment of sustainability and for planning
implementation.

Unit Aims
฀ To provide background information and tools to guide project identification and
formulation.

฀ To emphasise the importance of sound selection of alternative means at the
early stages of the cycle.

฀ To explain how sound choice can be guided by using tools such as Logframe
analysis.

฀ To demonstrate how project elements can be clearly specified and risks
assessed and reduced.

฀ To set out how to link logical project design to work planning and budgeting.

Unit Learning Outcomes

By the end of this unit, students should be able to:

฀ grasp the main issues and questions in project identification, formulation, and
design

฀ understand the processes to follow in formulating projects to identify problems
for primary stakeholders and set appropriate project objectives

฀ ensure that both alternative approaches and alternative means of
implementation are fully considered and appropriate choices made in selecting
the best means of achieving given objectives

฀ know how to formulate logically consistent projects and to specify the key
project elements in a clear and precise way

฀ identify, assess, and reduce project risks

฀ translate a project design in to implementation tools, particularly work plans

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Unit Interdependencies
This unit makes use of concepts and terms introduced in Unit 2. In turn it introduces
the concepts of Logframe analysis which are also used in Unit 10. Otherwise, this
unit can be studied largely independently of the rest of the module.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

KEY READINGS
 Belli P, Anderson JR, Barnum HN, Dixon JA, Tan J (2001) An overview of
economic analysis. In: Economic Analysis of Investment Operations: Analytical
Tools and Practical Applications. The World Bank, Washington DC, pp. 1–7.
This short chapter provides an overview of project analysis and considers some of the questions
that need to be answered during project identification, including questions relating to
sustainability, who benefits, and the importance of considering alternatives. It is of relevance
to the whole of this unit.

 Dearden P, Kowalski B (2003) Programme and project cycle management (PPCM):

lessons from south and north. Development in Practice 13(5) 501–514.
This provides a critique of logical frameworks and highlights the importance of thinking beyond
the framework. It stresses the importance of a broader knowledge of programme and project
cycle management by stakeholders involved. It also emphasises the value of treating the
Logframe as a ‘living document’.

 DFID (2003) Logical frameworks. In: Tools for Development: a Handbook for
those Engaged in Development Activity. UK Department for International
Development (DFID), pp. 5.1–5.9.
Available from:
[Link]
_-_a_handbook_for_those_engaged_in_development_activities.pdf
This provides more detail about how to develop Logframes, their advantages and limitations. It
outlines key steps in developing a Logframe including the key components of goal, purpose,
outputs and activities, how to define indicators and analysing risks and assumptions.

 Potts D (2002) Project identification and formulation. In: Potts D Project Planning
and Analysis for Development. Lynne Reinner Publishers, London. pp. 23–46.
This chapter provides further background into project identification, formulation, and
screening. It also succinctly explains with examples the tools described in this section —
stakeholder analysis, objectives analysis, alternatives analysis, and the project framework, and
it presents a useful diagram of a problem tree.

FURTHER READINGS

DFID (2003) Stakeholder analysis. In: Tools for Development: a Handbook for those
Engaged in Development Activity. UK Department for International Development
(DFID), pp. 2.1–2.11.
DFID (2003) Problem and situational analysis. In: Tools for Development: a
Handbook for those Engaged in Development Activity. UK Department for
International Development (DFID), pp. 3.1–3.9.
Available from:
[Link]
_-_a_handbook_for_those_engaged_in_development_activities.pdf

World Bank (2005) The Logframe Handbook: a Logical Framework Approach to

Project Cycle Management. The World Bank, Washington DC.
Available from: [Link]
[Link]/servlet/main?print=Y&menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&pi
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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

PK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&entityID=000160016_20050607122225

REFERENCES

DFID (2003) Logical frameworks. In: Tools for Development: a Handbook for those
Engaged in Development Activity. UK Department for International Development
(DFID), pp. 5.1–5.9.

World Bank (2005) The Logframe Handbook: a Logical Framework Approach to

Project Cycle Management. The World Bank, Washington DC.

About the Author

Professor (Dr.) Manoj Kumar is [Link] (Distinction – Production Engineering) from (Bihar
Institute of Technology Sindri, Dhanbad, Jharkhand), [Link] (Distinction –
Production Mangement) from (National Institute of Technology Jamshedpur,
Jharkhand) and Ph.D (Supply Chain Management) from (Indian Institute
Of Technology Delhi, India). He has more than 25 years teaching experience in
Indian Universities and Foreign Universities. He has more than 9 years
Experience in corporate sectors in India and Aboard. He has participated in many
national and International Conferences. He has published many research papers in National
and International Journals. He published many books and many chapters of books with
international publishers. He received many wards of national and international importance.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

1.0 PROJECT IDENTIFICATION PROCESS

Section Overview
This section introduces project identification and the importance of setting
appropriate objectives. It provides guidance and tools concerning stakeholder
analysis, problem analysis, and objectives setting.

Section Learning Outcome

By the end of this section, students should be able to:

฀ know the processes to follow in formulating projects to identify problems for

primary stakeholders and set appropriate project objectives

1.1 Project identification

The five major stages of the project cycle are identification, preparation,
appraisal, implementation and evaluation. The first two stages are largely the
responsibility of government, which may intend to finance a project from its own
resources or to seek external assistance, though donor agencies may play an
influential role.
Viewed as a technical process identification involves, in the following sequence

฀ Preliminary stakeholder analysis


฀ Problem analysis

฀ Setting of objectives

฀ Analysis of alternatives

฀ Accountability analysis

฀ Logical framework thinking

฀ Analysis of assumptions and associated risks

฀ Progress indicator definition

฀ Stakeholder review

It can be powerfully argued that this is the most critical stage of the cycle. If the
potential of the most viable concepts are overlooked at identification there is little
prospect that they will be retrieved at a later stage, when the emphasis shifts from
examining options to filling in the details of a specific proposal. It can be costly and
difficult to abort or radically revise the preparation of a project once underway.
Economists often think in terms of resources, opportunities, and constraints, and
this provides an analytical framework with which to generate project ideas. 1.1.1,
below, illustrates this and the wide range of possible sources for project concepts.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

1.1.1 Project identification

In practice, project ideas often result from the identification of
– a discrete set of activities identified as important within programme-based activities,
a country’s poverty reduction strategy and/or sector-wide approach
– problems or constraints in the development process caused by shortages of essential
facilities, services, and material or human resources and by institutional or other
obstacles
– unused or underused material or human resources and opportunities for their
conversion to more productive purposes; or, conversely, overused natural resources
that need to be conserved or restored
– unsatisfied demands or needs and possible means to meet them including
opportunities arising from new technology or technological development, for
example, the internet and mobile telephony
– the need to complement other investments (such as providing railway and port links
for a mining project, transport, packing and marketing facilities for an agricultural
development project, or access roads for a sugar factory and bio-ethanol plant)
Project ideas may also emanate from
– initiatives by local private or public entrepreneurs who wish to take advantage of
opportunities they perceive or who are responding to government incentives
– community initiatives (often supported by national or international NGOs)
– a government response to local political or social pressures originating, for example,
from economic, social, or regional inequalities
– a need for advocacy aimed at government in a weak policy environment
– the pursuit of national objectives such as food security
– the occurrence of natural events (drought, floods, earthquakes) and the short-term
responses to crisis
– as a response to long-term trends such as migration, environmental degradation, and
climate change
– a desire to create a permanent local capability to carry out development activities by
building up local institutions
Finally, project ideas originate not only from within a country but also from abroad as a
result of
– investment proposals of multinational firms
– programming activities of bilateral and multilateral aid agencies and their ongoing
projects in the country
– influence of investment strategies adopted by other developing countries as well as
opportunities created by international agreements (for example, on the use of
offshore resources)
– prevailing professional opinion or public consensus within the international community
in such fields as population, environment, and the alleviation of poverty
Source: unit author

It should also be noted that the idea of project identification as transparent, purely
technocratic and objective does not always hold true. Project identification can be
highly political, involving powerful groups which conflict and bargain in their attempts
to manipulate the agenda for public action.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

1.2 Stakeholder analysis

As a first stage it is important to carry out a preliminary stakeholder analysis. This
enables identification of the primary stakeholders, as well as partners and their roles.
Greater understanding of interest groups and their interest should result in a better
quality project.
Stakeholders are individuals, groups or organisations who have an interest or stake
in a project. They may be direct or indirect interests, and positive or negative. Their
stake in the project may be in terms of their rights or duties or they may be affected
by the outcome.
Different roles for stakeholders can be identified at this stage, and these can be
developed as the project progresses. Different organisations can play different roles
such as sub-contractors, delivery agency, enabling agency etc. Furthermore, it is also
possible to identify if any interest groups present threats to the success of the
projects, and plans can be put in place to respond to any such events.
There is increasingly a focus on the identification of agriculture and rural
development initiatives using a ‘bottom-up’ learning approach which emphasises the
importance of primary stakeholders informed and participating in the identification
stage. For process projects which encourage learning from experience, and listening
to participants, engaging with stakeholders from the outset is particularly important.
The outcome of the stakeholder analysis at this stage is that the primary stakeholder
is identified before the objectives of the project are finalised. This ensures that the
problem analysis relates specifically to the primary stakeholders.
Stakeholder tables are often constructed which provide a structured format for
assessing the interest of each group.

Stakeholder Interest Potential impact Potential Possible role

Group influence

Primary…

Secondary…

External

Stakeholder tables can be developed in different formats, for example, 1.2.1 shows
the different stakeholders, their interest in the project, and whether their interest is
positive or negative.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

1.2.1 Example stakeholder table

Stakeholder Interest in project −ve/+ve

Small farmers • Higher output and incomes +

Food traders • More sales +

Labourers • More jobs +

Moneylenders • Empowered clients −

• Less business −

Government • Success of project +

officials • Possible loss of rent if farmers −
become empowered

Source: DFID (2002) p. 2.3.

1.2.2 Limitations of stakeholder analysis

Stakeholder analysis is an effective and commonly used tool, but its use does not
guarantee success. There are a number of risks and practical problems that should be
avoided in its use. These include:
– that the jargon can be threatening to many
– the analysis can only be as good as the information collected and used
– use of matrices for analysis and presentation can oversimplify complex situations
– the judgements used in placing stakeholders in a matrix or table are often subjective.
Ideally, several opinions from different sources will be used to confirm or deny the
judgement
– team working can be damaged if the differences between groups in an activity, rather
than their common ground, are over-emphasised
– trying to describe winners and losers, as well as predicting hidden conflicts and
interests, can alienate powerful groups
– the analysis may lead to the re-emergence of conflicts that had lain dormant
Source: DFID (2002) p. 2.4.

1.3 Problem analysis

Projects aim to address a problem or constraint. It is vital to understand the causes
of the problem or constraint, how they affect stakeholders, and how to focus on
tackling them.
A helpful tool for systematically understanding the causes of a problem is the
problem tree method. This involves the identification of a core problem (at the
centre) which is based on the best understanding and sources of information
available. It is important to reach agreement amongst the participants of the key
core problem.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

The causes of the problem are then traced back as the ‘roots’ of the problem and
provide the causal chain.
The effects of the problem are then traced forward as the branches and main effects
of a problem on stakeholders.
Diagnosis is a crucial stage in project identification and there are many examples of
mistaken diagnosis in project design. Some commonly recognised examples are cited
in 1.3.1. Can you add to this list?

1.3.1 Typical examples of mistaken diagnosis in project design

(1) Failure to understand the motivation of the intended beneficiaries, or the existence
of factors which would restrict their participation in, or response to, a project: eg
credit to women farmers.
(2) Failure to understand the limits to improvements in institutional performance.
(3) Inadequate market analysis of demand and price forecasts for commodities for which
production is to be increased.
(4) Non-recognition of the degree of dependence of a form of development on subsidies
which a government may not be able to sustain or is committed to remove under
macroeconomic reforms.
(5) Non-recognition of the unattractiveness to entrepreneurs of the services which a
government seeks to privatise. Simply they are not profitable.
(6) Proposals for provision of services by government agencies which could be supplied
more efficiently and effectively by the private sector.
(7) Failure to properly determine and understand the physical locations and causes of
water losses within an irrigation scheme and also to take account of competing plans
for water use in urban areas.
(8) Underestimation of the difficulty in the humid tropics of maintaining soil fertility and
structure, for sustainable annual cropping.
(9) Incomprehension of the political and social factors which may militate against
decentralisation or meaningful peoples’ participation in project design and
execution.
(10) Poor assessment of the adequacy of essential infrastructure.
Source: unit author

 Think about one of the following core problems in a development context

with which you are familiar and develop a problem tree around it,
 tracing out the key causes and effects of one of these problems. 
(1) There is limited access to markets for produce
(2) Drought has reduced crop yields this year
(3) The nearest health clinic is 15 miles away by foot
(4) One of the devastating results of HIV/AIDS has been reduced labour
in the village

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

1.4 Objectives
When there is agreement and understanding about the core problem and the causes
and effects, the project objectives can be specified.
The project purpose is developed by restating the core problem in positive terms.
The project goal is created by articulating the effects of the problem in positive
terms.
Although setting project objectives appears to be straightforward, the process may
provide insights which could require revisiting the core problem. Overall the approach
may need to be an iterative one. Initial consideration of objectives may prompt further
investigation and data collection, and/or consultation with stakeholders.

Trade-offs must be assessed that arise between multiple and conflicting objectives.
For example, the objective of raising production of cash crops for export may have to
be weighed against the objective of increasing domestic employment or of improving
equity. The objective of an agricultural sector project could be functional (to provide
a national service), regional (to develop a particular area), or subsectoral (to expand
the production of a crop) – but can probably not be all of these at once.
Selection of a clear and simple objective, such as strengthening a national
agricultural extension service, may enhance the prospects of success. It may also,
however, limit the project’s overall contribution to development unless other
complementary investments (such as in agricultural research or credit) are also
undertaken.

Section Summary

฀ This section has introduced you to project identification and the process to
follow in formulating projects.

฀ It has equipped you with tools for ascertaining who the primary and secondary
stakeholders are (stakeholder analysis); the problem a project aims to address
(problem analysis) and formulating key objectives.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Section 1 Self Assessment Questions

Q uestion 1

True or false?

(a) Project identification is not an important part of the project cycle.

(b) Stakeholder analysis should be carried out when the project objective has been
decided.
(c) Core problems should be agreed upon by the project team only.

(d) Objectives can be set by considering the core problem in a positive light.

Q uestion 2

Using the following Problem Tree and Objectives Analysis, fill in the blanks.

(a) Problem tree analysis

Define the focal problem, its immediate and direct causes and effects

(a) Increased demand Reduced productivity

on health services

Increased morbidity
and mortality

Outbreak of cholera
in Kingstown, St
Vincent

Poor sanitary Contaminated water Unhygienic health

conditions supply practices and food
preparation

Open pit Flooding in Poor Lack of

latrines urban areas maintenance of knowledge
water mains
(b) Low levels
of income

Source: DFID (2002) p. 3.4.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

(b) Objectives tree analysis

Transform each problem statement into an objective

Tourism restored Reduced demand on Productivity restored

health services

Decreased morbidity
and mortality

Eliminate outbreak
of cholera in
Kingstown

Sanitary conditions Potable water (c)

improved supplied in target
areas

Pit latrines Flood control Maintenance of Health

improved measures water mains education in
implemented improved target
Sewer communities (d)
maintenance
improved

Source: DFID (2002) p. 3.5.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

2.0 CONCEIVING ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS

Section Overview
In this section we consider why it is vitally important to ‘open up the alternatives’
before settling on a diagnosis of a development problem and a single concept and
design for a project. This is a difficult issue, but some general approaches and tools
to use are suggested.

Section Learning Outcome

By the end of this section, students should be able to:
฀ thoroughly understand how to explore alternative strategies to meet the same
project objective

2.1 Opening up the alternatives

Examination and refining of alternative strategies must not be neglected, though
there will always be pressures to move rapidly on to detailed project design and
appraisal. These pressures may include political interference, the fixing of lending
programme targets, limitations in time and resources allocated to project
identification and formulation, and professional bias (see 2.1.1). If the project
identification team is pressurised into accepting what appears at first sight to be a
viable proposal without looking much further, then subsequent preparation is
reduced to simply making the best case for that proposal. Decisions made at this
stage can have far reaching consequences: some are likely to be irreversible no
matter how thorough the subsequent preparation and appraisal, while others may
largely determine the quality of the project and its impact on development. There is
no substitute for being right in the first place.

2.1.1 Professional bias in project identification

Given a national development objective such as improved food security irrigation
engineers may tend to see irrigation as the preferred way to attain that goal. Within the
engineering profession there are sub-groups. Mechanical engineers will look to pump
options and civil engineers to dams and canals; agricultural engineers will stress field
engineering and land levelling. On the other hand a national grain storage agency may
claim that expansion of its own infrastructure is the only valid approach to achieving the
same goal. If the real problem is a lack of price incentives for cereal growers, then
neither agency’s proposed solution is conceptually valid. Such things need checking at
the identification stage.
In project identification it is important to get to the real cause of the problem and not
to produce a project that deals with symptoms. Consider the following light-hearted tale
about the medical profession.
A man goes to the Doctor with a bad back. The Doctor admits her profession is not good
with backs but suggests the patient stands in the rain for three hours each day. The
patient catches severe influenza and returns to the Doctor, now with two ailments, but
the Doctor brightens because she knows how to treat influenza. She is now dealing with
something she is good at handling.
Professionals must not twist the problems of rural people to suit their professional angles
and skills.
Source: unit author

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Conceiving of alternative solutions is where project planners need to be at their most

creative and imaginative, and where an inter-disciplinary approach and consultation
with the widest practicable constituency are the most important. ‘Open up the
alternatives’, should be the byword of all project formulators.
Very few problems have only one possible solution. There are no demonstrably ‘right’
or ‘wrong’ answers in the design of agricultural and rural development projects: only
varying degrees of plausibility and risk. Too often in the past project concepts have
been processed through appraisal without adequate consideration of alternative, and
possible cheaper or more effective, ways of achieving the same objectives. Whether
the result of vested interest, of political pressure or simply lack of information on
feasible alternatives, the consequences are the same: opportunities lost or foregone,
which can seldom be recaptured.
The project identification and preparation process will initially involve choice between
alternative forms of intervention or project strategy.
For example:

฀ the objective of a project may be to strengthen the marketing systems for a

specified crop in a given region. This could be achieved through a project
designed to strengthen and stimulate private traders, or through public sector
intervention (eg a parastatal, or marketing board), or through promotion of
farmer co-operatives.

฀ the objective of increasing output of a specific crop might be achieved through
improvements in research, extension, input supply, access to credit, marketing
facilities and market information; or a combination of these. An alternative
crop might be a substitute.
Remember that such choices are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Combinations of
measures may be most appropriate. In general back what works and repeat success.
In opening up the alternatives it is useful to consider as many different routes as
possible, some will be discarded almost immediately, but others may introduce new
ideas and insights which may contribute positively to the final project design.
The following process is suggested for this.

(1) Listing as many likely alternatives as can be thought of.

The range of options is likely to broaden if ideas are drawn together from a
wide range of sources. Chances for brainstorming within the project planning
team, with government agencies, non-governmental contacts and with
intended beneficiaries should be cultivated.
(2) Consideration of each alternative with a view to eliminating some and
combining others. At this stage consideration of each alternative will
strengthen the justification for and scope of the one which is eventually
selected. For ranking options, precedent - local or foreign - is likely to be a
powerful guide. Have similar solutions in the project area or analogous settings
worked in the past?
– Is a pilot exercise or experimental work elsewhere giving promising results?
– What are the most successful farmers doing?

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

– Which initiatives have not worked, or have been proven to be unsustainable?

(3) Selection of promising alternatives for preliminary formulation.

The alternatives listed in step 1 may arise from an analysis of existing

constraints. The following example considers this in more detail.
Take the project objective to be increased output of beef in a particular region.
The present low levels of output may be the result of
(a) cattle diseases or parasites, or a combination of both

(b) low quality of the breeding stock

(c) lack of water during the dry season

(d) inadequate feeding (overall, seasonal, and/or a particular nutritional or

mineral deficiency)
(e) other unknown cause

If any of these constraints were removed, some increase in the output of meat would
be expected. If two or more constraints were removed simultaneously, then a
notably greater increase in output might be obtained, although the project
intervention would be more costly, complex and difficult to manage.
Alternatives may also be joint or complementary in terms of the approach required.
Options (a) and (d) above are both susceptible to alleviation through extension
activities and it may not be worth doing (a) without (d) or vice versa. In fact projects
to address (a), (b) and (d) will all require extension but (b) will also require a
breeding programme. Once production has moved to a higher plane (a new
production function) as a result of one intervention, other more costly projects may
become economic propositions.
The project designers must therefore consider in some detail the feasibility and costs
associated with overcoming each of these constraints, independently, in combination
or in sequence. Suppose that a widespread and regular programme of inoculation of
cattle would alleviate the first constraint (a). The overall cost of doing this, in terms
of inputs and personnel must be estimated as well as the likely effectiveness and
impact on the output and quality of meat. Obviously the more widespread and
regular the programme is, the higher the costs will be, and at each level these need
to be set against the probable benefits. Careful examination of similar projects
elsewhere and all relevant documentation, an awareness of the local environment,
and reliable information as to the availability of vaccine and appropriately skilled
technicians will all help the technical expert in this evaluation.
It should be borne in mind that costs and benefits are unlikely to rise uniformly with
the scale of operations. The analyst has to ascertain as far as is possible the
relationship between costs (resources, inputs, commitment of personnel) and
benefits (probable effect on output of meat) for different scales of projects designed
to reduce or eradicate cattle disease. This is so as to be able to compare this
approach with alternatives.
An alternative project might be construction of boreholes (tubewells), which would
provide water during the dry season for the herds and thus overcome constraint (c)
(assuming that this in isolation it would not exacerbate constraint (d)).

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

One essential choice to consider is whether an intervention in the form of a project is

in fact necessary or desirable. Alternatives are to do nothing, to provide only
improved access to credit or to enhance the capability of existing projects or
programmes.

Section Summary

฀ This section has emphasised the importance of selecting alternative means for
undertaking a project at the early stages of the project cycle.

฀ It has also provided you with the techniques for exploring alternative
strategies.

Section 2 Self Assessment Question

Question 3

True or false?

(a) There is only one way of approaching a project.

(b) There is a risk of development specialists being biased by their own specialist
knowledge in seeking solutions to project problems and objectives.
(c) The process of seeking alternative solutions should ideally be carried out by a
multidisciplinary team.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

3.0 LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS

Section Overview
This section provides an introduction and guide to the use of logical framework
analysis. This is a powerful and widely used tool for project planning and
management. You should gain an understanding of the use of this tool and be able to
critically assess how it is used in practice.

Section Learning Outcome

By the end of this section, students should be able to:

฀ formulate logically consistent projects and to specify the key project elements
in a clear and precise way

3.1 Introduction
Use of the Logical Framework or ‘Logframe’ is primarily concerned with the improved
formulation and appraisal of development projects. It can however also bring about
improvements in project implementation and management, and facilitate improved
project monitoring and evaluation.
Project logic and the Logframe is applied by many development agencies and is
incorporated in their project formulation approach. Most well-known are Logical
Framework Analysis used by USAID and the UK Department for International
Development, and ZOPP (Zielorientierte Projektplanung) used by the German agency
for technical co-operation, Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ).
In this section no particular system is explained and emphasised. Rather principles
are set out for a systematic, yet simple approach, the application of which can be
modified to best suit the circumstances of a given project. The approach is used to
establish a project's logic, in other words to formulate logically consistent project
proposals.
The Logframe approach simply provides a structure for specifying the components of
a project and the logical linkages between a set of means and a set of ends. It also
places a project in its larger framework of national development objectives and
sector goals set by plans and programmes. It is a systematic way of defining and
presenting the objectives of a project, indicating how those objectives will be
achieved and identifying the main factors external to the project that may introduce
a risk of poor performance. It involves definition of the project inputs, activities, and
outputs that lead to the achievement of objectives. Thus it is an aid to project
design, preparation of work plans, appraisal of proposals and project monitoring and
evaluation.

The Logframe is presented as a matrix of 4 columns and 5 rows as explained below.

The figure in 3.1.1, below, shows the matrix and indicates the contents of each cell.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

3.1.1 Contents of the logical framework matrix

Narrative summary Indicators of Means of verification Assumptions

achievement

Goal For sustainability:

What is the reason for the What are the What sources of What conditions external
project, the broader quantitative information will be to the project are
development objective towards measures or used to show that the necessary for the
which the efforts of the project qualitative goal has been delivery of the intended
are directed? judgements, to achieved? benefits or impact to
assess whether continue for an
(Why is the project undertaken? the goals has extended period?
Who are the intended
been achieved?
beneficiaries? What impact is
being sought?)

Project purpose Purpose to goal:

What specific effect is the What are the What sources of What conditions external
project to achieve as a direct quantitative information will be to the project are
result of the project outputs? If measures or used to show that the necessary for
the project is completed qualitative project purpose has achievement of purpose
successfully, what improvements judgements, to been achieved? to contribute to the
or changes could be expected in assess whether goal? What risks need to
the group, organisation or area the project be monitored during
towards which the project is purpose has implementation?
immediately directed? been achieved?

Outputs Outputs to purpose:

The sources of
What outputs (type, quality and The type, What factors outside the
information that will
number) will need to be quality and be used to verify that control of project
produced (by activities number of management are
outputs have been
undertaken with inputs provided) outputs to be necessary for progress
achieved
in order for the project purpose produced by from outputs to purpose?
to be achieved? certain dates What risks?

Activities Activities to outputs:

What activities need to be The specific The sources of What external factors
undertaken by the project in activities to information that will are necessary for
order to produce the desired be undertaken be used to verify activities to generate
outputs? by certain that outputs have planned outputs? What
dates been achieved risks?

Inputs Prior conditions

What inputs are required to Measures of The sources of What conditions are
carry out the activities quantity and information that will necessary for inputs to
quality (eg be used to verify be acquired and used?
equipment that the right inputs
and job have been procured
specifications) and utilised. In
. practice, mainly
project management
records.

Source: unit author

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

It is not easy at first to grasp the finer points of this approach from a written
description. It is far better to take an actual example. The table in 3.1.1, above,
shows a complete matrix for a project to provide secondary health care in a rural
development context by the World Bank. It uses some different terminology than
that presented above (eg ‘performance indicators’ rather than ‘means of verification’)
which is demonstrative of the different approaches and language which organisations
may use, though the essential components are the same. Note how the goal relates
to the World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy (CAS).

In constructing the matrix, it is usual practice to show the goal at the top of the page
and work down to inputs. It is, though, immaterial which way the matrix is drawn, so
long as the logical sequence of thinking is always from inputs through activities to
outputs, from outputs to purpose and from purpose to goal. It is this which
comprises the means–ends relationship, and sets out the project logic. It is usually
best to start preparing the Logframe by working vertically down the first column until
this is complete, and then entering prior-conditions and assumptions from the
bottom up. A series of iterations will then be needed to reach a final result.

3.1.2 A sample Logframe for the case of ‘secondary health

care’ Health: Secondary Health Care

Narrative summary Performance indicators Monitoring and Assumptions/risk

evaluation
CAS Goals CAS Goal to Bank
Mission
(1) Improved health (1) Reduced incidence 1.1.1 World Health
status of rural of endemic diseases Organisation (1) Improved health
population by 5% annually for Reports increases workers
’93 to ‘99 productivity
1.2.1 World Health
Organisation (2) Other social
Reports infrastructure
(2) Mortality rate projects achieve
reduced to 120/1 1.3.1 World Health their CAS Goals
000 by 2000 Organisation
Reports

(3) Morbidity rate

reduced to 100/1
000 by 2000

Project Development DO to CAS Goal

Objective
The rural population uses
improved secondary health 1.1 Number of patients 1.1.1 Independent (1) Improved health
care served by local National Study increases workers
hospitals increased productivity
by 20%
1.2.1 Independent
National (2) Current level of
1.2 65% of the children Study:MOH food security is
in service areas are maintained
inoculated

1.3 70% of population in

need of services use
these services

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Outputs Output to DO
(1) The quality of the 1.1 % of secondary 1.1.1 MOH check on (1) Served population
health care health care centers health care can pay minimum
infrastructure is with adequate centers services’ fees
improved qualified staff
(doctors, nurses) to
meet all shift needs

1.2 % of health care 1.2.1 Review of labs

centers with and pharmacies
laboratories and in health care
pharmacies to centers
international
standards

(2) The needs of the 2.1 % of health care

needs met by skilled 3.1.1 Review of needs
community in the
doctors, centers, against services
area of health care
and /or availability offered
services are reflected
in the provision of of relevant drugs
services
2.2 % of community 3.1.2 Review of
involved in the participation in
process of needs definition
determining the
needs of the
community

(3) The use of new skills

in provision of health 4.1 % of health care 4.1.1 Sampling of the
care is increased workers receiving system
training who apply
the skills on the job

% of the population
using the centers 4.1.2 Survey of users –
who are satisfied sampling
with the quality of
the care provided

(5) The project 5.1 Supervision and

is efficiently financial 5.1.1 Supervision
implemented requirements are reports
met by the PMU in
100% of its duties

5.2 90% of
implementation 5.2.1 Supervision
milestones are reports
achieved

5.3 80% of performance 5.2.2 Supervision

indicators are reports
tracked and
provided to decision
makers

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Component activities
INFRASTRUCTURE
1.1 Determine the current
state of the health
INFRASTRUCTURE $$$ Project Records
care facilities
1.2 Develop a plan to
improve facilities COMMUNITY NEEDS $$$ Project Management
along the lines of Plans
beds, pharmacy, labs,
staff SERVICE PROV. $$$$
1.3 Update labs
1.4 Build additional PROJECT MNG $$$
bedding and/or
centers

COMMUNITY NEEDS
1.1 Develop a system for
community
participation
1.2 Conduct a needs
assessment in each
region
1.3 Integrate the
community needs into
the infrastructure
plans

SERVICE PROVISION
1.1 Determine the level of
skills needed for
effective health care
and a training plan
1.2 Implement the
training plan for
nurses, doctors, and
support staff
1.3 Develop
administrative
procedures to
determine the quality
of care

PROJECT MANAGEMENT
4.1 Determine the skills of
the PMU and identify
weaknesses

4.2 Provide training or

support to fill
knowledge gaps
4.3 Provide necessary
tools for staff in the
areas of financial
management,
procurement, project
management, and
M&E

Source: World Bank (2005) pp. 94–95.

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In project formulation clarity of purpose is essential, project objectives must be

clearly stated in a form that will allow specific targets to be defined if possible.
Progress towards these targets should be objectively measurable. This will facilitate
monitoring during implementation and both on-going and subsequent evaluation.
For a well formulated project the objectives will be immediately relevant to an
expressed priority development need (often sectoral or sub-sectoral) and will be
realistic and achievable given planned inputs and the proposed time scale. Problem
Trees and Objectives Analysis can be used to develop the objective. The activities
and outputs of the project will be only those that contribute directly to the
achievement of the objectives. The project will have clearly defined limits. Its
organisational structure, institutional setting and geographical boundaries will be
clearly specified.
Clearly establishing a project's logic in this way has several advantages. The first is
that it forces the project planner to tease out the inter-locking components of a
project in a logical manner right from the start. In particular it shifts the emphasis
from the inputs and outputs end of the logical sequence towards the objectives end.
Too frequently it may be assumed that a tangible asset such as a computer facility
will be self-evidently useful and need not be justified. But in means–ends analysis
the facility itself is just an output, and one has to ask, ‘why is this facility needed’?
Then, not be content with the obvious answer ‘to process data’, but to go on to ask,
‘what are the wider objectives that this computer facility is intended to serve’? These
may be administrative, financial or political objectives that will contribute to broader
social or economic development objectives.
The process that is described by the logical hierarchy of means and ends is made
explicit, and hence the technical relationships that underlie it also become apparent
and their feasibility can be checked. Basic errors in the technical specification of the
project should thus be avoided. Clearly defined objectives are also essential for the
process of project formulation, if the most cost-effective and appropriate
technological choices are to be made.
Preparation of the Logframe also forces the project designers to identify
systematically the risks inherent in the whole enterprise. The very act of doing this
focuses the mind on those aspects of the project that lie outside the control of the
project manager. This in turn leads naturally to consideration of whether there are
any ways in which risks due to external influences can be minimised, and hence to
improved project design. For example, other less risky methods to carry out certain
activities could be chosen. Alternatively if certain actions are required by
Government or another agency these can be made a prior-condition for the
implementation of the project.
The record of these risks and prior-conditions is also an invaluable reminder of
factors that need to be carefully monitored as the project proceeds.
Performance measures or ‘objectively verifiable indicators’ are a key part of the
Logframe and should be identified and designed for each stage of the hierarchy.
Targets should be set in terms of quality, quantity and time. They should be either
quantifiable or qualitative and capable of being assessed. Performance measures are
placed in the second column, whilst the means of, or sources of data, for verification
are in the third column.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

The Logframe can be an excellent communication device and can be used to build
consensus amongst all parties, from policy-makers to beneficiaries, who are
interested in the project. Initial preparation through workshops and brainstorming
sessions can prove very creative and valuable.
If it is to work properly project logic needs to become an integral part of the project
designer's habitual way of thinking - her or his ‘intellectual baggage’. The planner
has to start thinking in terms of the logical hierarchy from the moment when the
project begins to take shape, and it is no use leaving it to the end of the project
preparation process. Logical consistency is a characteristic of all good projects.
When applied properly the Logframe can bring out into the open those ‘hidden’
aspects of a project that are all too easily ignored or overlooked, because they raise
awkward issues, or because they might prejudice the project's chances of being
funded. The technique does call for intellectual honesty, some hard work and
considerable imagination. Dedicated computer software is available to support this
planning process and the subsequent preparation of matrices and reports but most
planners prefer the accessibility, familiarity and commonality of widely used
spreadsheet or word processing software.
A final word of caution is that the Logframe should be dynamic. It needs to be kept
continually under review, and may have to be re-drawn many times during the
lifetime of a project. If this is not done it could have the perverse effect of reducing
that element of flexibility and responsiveness to changing needs that is the hallmark
of good project management. This is especially true given the uncertainty inherent in
rural development projects which depend on both people and local institutions.

3.2 Project design: details of the Logframe approach

The essential elements of a project are:

฀ objectives (goal and purpose)


฀ outputs

฀ activities

฀ inputs

Defining objectives

An objective is the aim or goal of a project, and describes the desired state which the
project is expected to achieve/contribute to. It provides the reason for undertaking
the project. A project will have at least two levels of objectives: a development goal
or higher-level objective; and an immediate purpose or objective.
The goal will usually be at the sectoral or sub-sectoral level and should provide a
clear development objective towards which the project is striving. For example, it
may be a country’s sectoral or sub-sectoral targets from its poverty reduction
strategy paper, or emerge from a funder’s country strategy paper. The project will
be expected to make a significant contribution to this objective, although
not normally to achieve it entirely. The project purpose provides the specific
objective that the management of the project will be expected to achieve.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Be wary of the temptation to overstate the development objective in terms of

sectoral or national goals (eg increase national agricultural productivity; eradicate
rural poverty) or to be vague (eg protect the environment).
In defining a goal, make sure that:

฀ it provides adequate justification for the project


฀ its progress can be verified either quantitatively or qualitatively

฀ it is single-purpose, or has multiple purposes which are compatible

The project purpose should specify the changes or improvements that could be
expected in the target group, organisation or region if the project is completed
successfully and on time. The purpose should also state the magnitude of such
changes and the time span in which they will be brought about. It is the formulation
of the purpose that is of most importance to the project designers and
subsequently to the managers.
In defining project purpose, make sure that:

฀ it states clearly the desired change and where this will take place

฀ it specifies the magnitude of the change to be achieved

฀ it indicates the timescale for the change

฀ its progress can be verified quantitatively

฀ if it conflicts with another purpose, priorities are indicated

The way in which the purpose contributes to the goal objective must be obvious.
It may be helpful to introduce an intermediate purpose or objective in order to
clarify the logical progress and connection.
The following example illustrates the use of such an intermediate objective in a three
year research project.
Goal: Rice production increased by 10% in Alpha province by year 10 from a base
line of X 000 tons in year 0.
Intermediate objective: Research results applied by 400 contact farmers in Alpha
province by year 4.
Purpose: Research results incorporated by the Alphan extension service into an
extension package by the end of year 3 (to be achieved at project completion or
soon after).
It is conceivable that two levels of intermediate objective might be useful for some
projects. Note that the number of levels is not critical, but it is the logical sequence
that must be correct. Objectives at each level must be clearly capable of contributing
to the achievement of the objectives at the next highest level.
Read the examples of objectives in 3.2.1, below.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

3.2.1 Examples of objectives

Goals or development objectives.

− The income from apple-growing of 1000 farmers in X region, increased by 25% by year
2015, compared with their 2007 income of US $Y per year from the same source.

− A fully operational system for food security surveillance established by December

2012.
− A biogas network fully established by 2015 with active biogas research and training
programmes in each of eight network countries.
Purpose or immediate objectives.
− The government capability to construct and bring to full operation annually, 200
aquaculture ponds of one hectare each, established by 2011.
− The capability of the Central Agricultural Research Institute to conduct at least at the
present level of activity, applied research on maize, sorghum and wheat,
independent of external assistance, attained by 2015.
Source: unit author

A project purpose should thus be a very specific statement, the achievement of

which can be verified. Note that specification of the magnitude of change and the
timescale establishes a target for achievement.
A target is a quantitative statement of results and a planned performance standard
by which actual performance may be subsequently compared and measured. The
specification of targets in project formulation is useful because it forces the project
designers to think in terms of physical quantities, time spans and costs. It enables an
assessment to be made of how possible the project is and how realistic the proposals
of project achievements are in terms of the resources requested. It also assists in the
identification of indicators used to measure progress towards targets in the
monitoring and evaluation of a project. A good project design should even stipulate
the rate of achievement or progress over time, for example, by specifying annual
targets.
When there is a trade-off between two competing objectives, it should be clearly
identified and an order of priority established.

Identification of the target group

The target group or primary stakeholders will have been agreed upon within the
initial stakeholder analysis. This needs to be carefully articulated within the
Logframe. The nature of the target beneficiary group will influence the physical
requirements for the project, the choice of technology and the organisational and
institutional arrangements that will be most appropriate. Failure to take sufficient
account of this is a reason why many projects under-achieve.
Precise articulation of the primary stakeholders requires more than a broad
descriptive term such as the ‘rural poor’, the ‘disadvantaged’ or ‘small farmers’. The
target group should be identified by reference to the following characteristics,
specified for a particular geographical area, for example, a region or district:

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

฀ status, for example, in terms of income, wellbeing, level of nutrition, level of

education, or land tenure. (Indicators of status should be selected which are
easy to use and appropriate. For example, while income or nutrition levels are
very appropriate they are not readily usable, and land and livestock holdings
may be easier).

฀ occupation, for example, landowners with less than X hectares, landless
labourers, farmers engaged in special crop or livestock activities, fishermen
with boats of less than x capacity.

฀ access to services, for example, farmers with no access to institutional
credit, input supply or extension advice.

฀ gender

฀ class or caste

฀ ethnic status

For example:

Male- and female-headed, landless households, who supply labour to irrigated farms
in the rice growing zones of Sindh province; not, the landless poor in Pakistan.

Project outputs
Outputs are the result of activities completed by the project with the use of inputs. They
are a pre-condition for the subsequent achievement of purposes and goals. Production of
outputs should be managed by the project and less influenced by external factors that the
project management cannot directly control. As most projects have more than one
output, their sequential ordering is essential, because the output of one activity is likely to
be required for the production of another output.

The outputs of a project need to be stated in such a way that:

฀ their realisation can be identified, in terms of quantity, quality, time and place

฀ as for objectives, a target is specified for the magnitude of output to be
produced and the timescale for this

฀ it is clear if a certain output is a prerequisite for other outputs

฀ all outputs necessary for achieving the project purpose are listed and all
outputs clearly relate to the purpose

฀ they are feasible within the resources available

By definition outputs are separate from objectives. Unfortunately confusion between

them is a common design error. Outputs are also commonly confused with activities.
Remember that an output is the result of an action or activity.
For example,

฀ the output of a training activity is trained people


฀ the output of a research activity is the research results

฀ research conducted on inter-cropping is an activity

฀ research findings on inter-cropping are an output

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Activities

An activity is the action necessary to transform given inputs into planned outputs
over a specified period of time. Each activity should have at least one output, which
may contribute to a larger output.
Activities need to be stated in such a way that:

฀ their implementation can be verified in terms of quantity, time and place


฀ they are stated in terms of actions being undertaken rather than as completed
outputs

฀ all key activities necessary for achieving the outputs are listed

฀ there are no activities listed whose outcome cannot be traced upwards to the
output level

฀ it is clear who is responsible for carrying out the activity

A row for activities is not always included in the logical framework matrix, some
organisations and planners preferring to use a matrix of just four rows and four
columns. However, consideration of activities is inherent in assessing the logical
progression from inputs to outputs, and making these explicit in the matrix will
usually be helpful.

3.3 The vertical logic: means-ends relationships

There is a logical hierarchy of means–ends relationships between the various
project elements; progress at each level is a precondition for moving to the higher
level. The Box below illustrates the causal relationships which provide the conceptual
linkages between the project elements. Establishing clearly the means and ends,
helps to design a sound and logical project.

3.3.1 Means—end chain equals logical project design

end goal
 ↑
end (means) project purpose
 ↑
end (means) outputs
 ↑
end (means) activities
 ↑
means inputs
Thus:
IF inputs are provided, THEN activities can take place.
IF activities are successfully completed, THEN planned outputs should result.
IF outputs are used as intended, THEN the purpose (effect) should be realised.
IF the immediate objective is achieved, THEN it should contribute to the
realisation of the goal (impact).

Source: unit author

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

To conclude this explanation another real project example is given. The Logframe for
an extension training project is shown in the figure in 3.3.2.
Notice that:

฀ for each objective, there is a statement of the desired state, a physical target
and a timescale

฀ each lower level describes the MEANS to the next level which is its ENDS, and
its justification

฀ only outputs, activities and inputs are within the 'manageable interest' of the
project, ie under the direct control of the project manager

฀ if the outputs are produced, the purpose will be achieved at or soon after
project completion

฀ the Logframe as shown here takes no account of external factors or conditions

3.3.2 Narrative summary: an extension training project

Goal
Extension messages reaching and being implemented by 250 000 farmers in region A by
2015.
Purpose
Extension service for region A strengthened by 450 trained nationals by 2015 (increased
from 143 employed by the Ministry of Agriculture as at December 2007).
Outputs
500 high school graduates trained by 2015 through five agricultural certificate courses of
one year each.
Activities
Develop and test curriculum, 2009—2015.
Train 100 high school graduates in agricultural extension and crop production techniques
in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, in 4 short residential courses of ten weeks each.
Inputs
A team of two teachers and one administrator
Stationery for courses
Venues in rural locations in region A
Vehicle/transport for team
Source: unit author

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

3.4 The horizontal logic

The horizontal logic of the Logframe is the measurement of the results of a project
through objectively verifiable indicators (OVIs) and means of verification or sources
of data. The expected results to be obtained at each level of the vertical logical are
specified within the objectively verifiable indicators, for example:

3.4.1 Indicators
Objectively verifiable indicators/performance indicators

Goal Long-term indicators, rarely collected by the project

Purpose End of project indicators showing change/benefits to target population

Output Deliverables

Activities Measures performance against schedule and budget

Source: unit author

All indicators should be:

฀ measurable ie specify quantities, qualities, and timing


฀ sensitive to change

฀ easy to collect

฀ achievable

Means of verification

The means of verification (MoV) sets out the sources of data that will be used to
provide the OVIs. They establish in advance how the criteria for success will be
verified. There should be one MoV per OVI.
They can comprise types of data (eg farmer surveys, independent impact
assessment), sources of information (eg national, local statistics) and data collection
techniques (eg participatory rural appraisal, geographical information systems).
A few examples:

Goal:

OVI – Average household income in X province is 10% higher in 2012 than baseline
in 2007
MoV – National statistics

Purpose Level:

OVI – Average crop yields in X province are 20% higher in 2010 than in baseline
2006
MoV - survey of project area

Output Level:

OVI – At least X farmer groups show sufficient skills for management of X crops

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

MoV – sample farmer assessment

Activity Level:

OVI – Capacity-building workshops held for 50 farmers in X

province MoV – workshop reports

3.5 Assumptions and risks: the external project

environment
The ‘IF... THEN ...’ logic of the project hierarchy also depends on external events or
conditions. There is a basic premise here that the achievements and conditions
specified for each level in the means–ends chain ought to be not only necessary,
but also sufficient to cause the higher level to be attained. Each causal linkage
(between inputs, activities, outputs, etc) must be planned so as to ensure that at any
given level, the necessary conditions not only exist, but are enough to achieve the
next level. Usually the linkage is not strong enough (ie the sufficiency or
completeness does not occur) unless the external environment also influences the
project in the desired direction and risks are avoided.

Development actions in the agricultural sector have a multi-disciplinary character

with inter-actions among many key variables, and linkages with activities in other
sectors of the economy. This is particularly true of rural development projects with
multiple objectives. As it is rarely feasible to tackle all the key variables in a single
project, no such project, not even a multi-disciplinary or integrated rural
development project can be treated in isolation.
For example, the trained extensionists in the project above (3.3.2) will not be able to
produce an impact at the farm level unless other essential inputs and services
(seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, credit, storage, processing, markets, etc) are available
to farmers to adopt improved farming practices and thus their yields. It is neither
possible, nor essential, that all these inputs and services be specifically included in
the training project, but project success (impact) depends on them being made
simultaneously available. Some projects fail, because the designers failed to check
details about the project environment and underestimated the risks of particular
development approaches. In some cases prior conditions for project success were not
identified during formulation or checked on during implementation.
The linkages underlying the logic of a project are subject to a variety of risks due to
the inaccuracy of information, the uncertainty of the project environment, and/or the
unpredicted reactions of the target group. The level of uncertainty involved
increases, the higher the level in the hierarchy.
The project designers should make every effort to obtain the information necessary
to design a project and be confident of its implementability and success. Inevitably,
however, the collection of information is constrained by the time and resources
available, and in the absence of definitive data the project designers will have to
make certain assumptions. Each time an assumption is made a risk that the
assumption will not hold is introduced, and hence a risk that the performance of the
project will be compromised.
In the formulation of a project there will be four main sets of risks and it is important
to distinguish these.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

(1) Inherent risks: it is assumed that inputs and activities will lead to outputs,
and that outputs will lead to achievement of purpose which will contribute to
the goal. These assumptions constitute the project hypothesis or project logic
and there should be no need to state them explicitly as the causal relationships
between means and ends should be apparent. If there is any risk or
uncertainty about any of the links in the chain then further investigation is
required to verify the technical relationship involved, probably through
consultation with relevant experts.
Certain risks will remain, for example, the risk that it is not possible for a
research programme to breed a certain disease resistant variety within a
specified time span given available inputs.
This type of risk will always remain to some extent. We can never be certain
that the research programme will produce the desired results, but with relevant
expertise informed judgements can be made. Risks of this type are not
normally specified in the Logframe.
(2) Universal risks: for example, the risk of war, rare extreme climatic events or
other natural disasters. It is unlikely that such risks (or assumptions of non-
occurrence) need be entered in the Logframe. This does not mean that such
possibilities should be ignored. The reverse is true. They must be taken
account of in project design and may mean the rejection of the project, or at
least its postponement until the situation improves.
(3) Internal risks: there are also risks relating to the inputs and activities under
the control of management. Examples include:
– delays in the supply of equipment

– delays in the assignment of project staff

– project staff are not suitably qualified, or motivated

– delay in the completion of an activity, for example, completion of survey

work because of use of key staff for other tasks
In these cases, management is clearly responsible for ensuring that materials
are ordered with reasonable allowance for shipment delays, that adequately
qualified project staff are recruited on time, that the staff are well motivated
and that competing tasks are properly scheduled. The project management
should be able to exert some influence so as to reduce these risks. Provision
should be made in the project design to ensure that management can perform
its functions satisfactorily without such risks, and they are thus not normally
specified in the Logframe. As with ‘inherent risks’ relevant technical expertise is
needed to assess the design of the project and whether the project logic is
sound and achievable given the resources provided and the management
capacity that exists.
(4) External risks: factors upon which the success of the project depends, but
which are largely outside the control of project management. This is the
important group of risks for which assumptions shown in the Logframe
may be necessary.
For example, most agricultural development projects aimed at increasing farm
incomes may depend on assumptions about the construction of roads,
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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

prevailing price levels, markets, credit facilities, farm inputs, etc. The project
designers could verify that roads do or do not exist, what price levels prevail,
that markets currently exist, that credit and inputs are available, etc, and no
risk would then be involved. These factors become risks when agencies
external to project management are responsible for them, and it must be
assumed that they will satisfactorily fulfil that responsibility.

For example, when legislation has been promised to remove price controls or
perhaps introduce price guarantees, or claims have been made that following
economic liberalisation the private sector can provide marketing services in a
remote area, or that a viable rural credit institution has been established.
In each case there is a risk of non-fulfilment and hence need for an assumption
that should be made explicit in the Logframe.
Introduction of such risk identification in the earliest stages of project
identification and formulation will rapidly screen out infeasible project concepts.
For example, a project that requires a rural credit institution that the
government has no intention of setting up can be rejected out of hand, unless
resources are available to make the credit institution an activity of the project
itself.
Project design should be an iterative process that seeks to determine the
optimal form for a particular project given resource constraints. In particular,
the identification of risks may force the designers to rethink all or part of an
original design or concept in order to remove the risk or reduce it to an
acceptable level.
The Assumptions/Risks column in the Logframe matrix is of value for two
reasons:
฀ to prompt iterative improvement of the project design

฀ to ensure that any remaining risks are carefully monitored

Thus having identified a risk during preparation of the Logframe, the response
will be to:
฀ reject the project, because the risk is sufficient to call into question the
viability of the project and cannot be realistically removed or reduced
through re-design

฀ lower or eliminate the risk through re-design or by adopting a completely
different approach

฀ or for risks that are acceptable at the time of project preparation, to state
them as an assumption in the Logframe and subsequent project documents
and to monitor them through the project's life
It is important to note that in practice final Logframes and project documents should
specify few risks. Risks may have been listed during the formulation process but
most, if not all of these, should have been eliminated in the final design. A project
subject to a large number of highly probable and significant risks is doomed from
inception and requires no further consideration.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

In summary, risks occur when:

฀ key events, actions or decisions, upon which project success depends, are
subject to delay or do not materialise.
They should be identified during the project formulation process and their
articulation:
฀ leads to rejection of non-viable projects or redesign of the project to eliminate
the risk

฀ makes risks explicit and ensures they are monitored during implementation,
and that complementary action by other agencies is forthcoming

฀ facilitates the assessment of risk, helping judgement of the project's chances of
success during final appraisal

Section Summary

฀ This section has set out the importance of developing a logically consistent
project.

฀ It explained the logical framework analysis and described to the various steps
in developing one, defining objectives, outputs, activities and inputs. It has
also described the core monitoring and evaluation elements of the Logframe.
The risks and assumptions of projects were discussed in terms of the four main
risks that can affect a project.

Section 3 Self Assessment Questions

Question 4

What are some of the advantages of using the Logframe?

Question 5

What are some of the challenges of using the Logframe?

Question 6

Look at the examples of activities from three different projects below. Enter in the
space what their resulting outputs would be.
(a) The construction of 10 village tubewells in Y region in project year

2. Output: _______.

(b) Research conducted over three years on a disease resistant variety of

chickpeas.
Output: _______.

(c) A participatory training course for 30 extension workers drawn from the crops
department in Z region.
Output: _______.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

4.0 ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING SUSTAINABILITY

Section Overview
This section reviews the use of SWOT analysis as a tool to assess the internal and
external factors that potentially affect a proposed project and hence its performance
and sustainability.

Section Learning Outcome

By the end of this section, students should be able to:

฀ have a tool which can be used to assess the internal and external factors which
may affect the sustainability of a project

4.1 SWOT analysis and project sustainability

For inclusion in logical framework analysis or more generally as part of project
identification and formulation factors affecting project sustainability should be
identified. A project can be said to be sustainable when it continues to deliver
benefits to the project beneficiaries for an extended period after the main part of the
external assistance has been completed.
One tool which can be used to help assess the internal and external factors directly
affecting the project and which ultimately determine its sustainability is SWOT
(Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) Analysis.

SWOT analysis
SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats, which are the
themes under which factors are catalogued using this analytical tool. SWOT analysis
involves brainstorming sessions with concerned participants and can be applied
equally well to a project proposal or to the ultimate implementation of the project. It
is a widely used technique in business and marketing.
Participants are required to list quickly on display boards all their ideas (no matter
how idiosyncratic) concerning the proposal being reviewed, under each of the four
themes above. All ideas are then reviewed and consensus reached on which are
critical to the success of the project. The resultant lists help clarify thoughts on
strategies for development or for improved management.
The results are best displayed on a whiteboard or flipchart divided into a grid of four
squares, to represent the SWOT headings. The group should not be too large for
discussion, and the members should be given time to think through their own
contributions, either individually or in small groups of two or three people. Given the
need to consult widely for many development projects, it may be appropriate to
conduct more than one SWOT, with groups representing different stakeholders.
Staff implementing a pilot project in Pakistan that aims to form Water User
Associations that can take over management of an irrigation canal, produced the
following SWOT for these Associations.

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4.1.1 SWOT analysis for irrigation water user associations in Pakistan

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
− some ability to act in unison to − poor condition of the
negotiate with government and to infrastructure with costly repair
resolve disputes needs
− some mutual trust as a basis for − continuing dependence on
collective action government for major works
− intimate knowledge of the irrigation − lack of data on system
system performance
− ability to mobilise labour and − limited engineering knowledge or
capital access to technical guidance
− ability to monitor all water users − highly politicised and unequal
− strong incentives to improve the social structure
performance of the system − disruptive competition for
Association leadership
− lack of self-confidence and local
models of success to follow
− legal status not yet defined and
protected

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
− ‘window of opportunity’ for reform − perceptions among members that
exists in the political and economic water charges will rise to
environment unaffordable levels
− for associations to become multi- − non-cooperation or even adverse
functional, bringing wider benefits intervention by ‘feudal’ landlords
and sources of revenue − resistance to change in the
− existence of supportive pilot project irrigation department
− availability of some donor support − continued corruption and need for
− wider policy reforms improving payment of bribes to ensure supply
producer prices and hence
incentives

Source: unit author

Section Summary

฀ This section has set out the importance of assessing the sustainability of a
project from the outset.

฀ It has described SWOT analysis as a tool to use to analyse the various factors
(strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) which may affect the
sustainability of a project.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Section 4 Self Assessment Questions

Question 7

True or false?

SWOT analysis can only be used to assess internal factors that affect a project.

Question 8

In the acronym for SWOT analysis the letters stand for (tick on the correct option):

Strengths Strategies

Worries Weaknesses

Opportunities Operations

Tactics Threats

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

5.0 IMPLEMENTATION PLANNING – WORK PLANS

Section Overview
An important but sometimes neglected part of project design and planning is the
planning of implementation itself. This section briefly reviews key issues and
approaches for the planning of work plans or implementation schedules.

Section Learning Outcome

By the end of this section, students should be able to:

฀ create a realistic work plan for a project

5.1 Preparing work plans

Work plans enable the project designers to see if, with the planned resources, it is
possible to complete all the project activities and produce the outputs in the time
allocated. A work plan will draw attention to any problems with scheduling, for
example:
฀ too many activities taking place at one time competing for resources such as
labour, equipment, and management time

฀ lack of co-ordination of activities with for example the cropping season or
policy processes

฀ delays in procurement of inputs or non-production of outputs in time for
subsequent activities that require them

฀ over-optimistic assumptions about possible achievement rates

Work planning is also an integral part of project preparation, not just a final
scheduling exercise. Emergence of the problems listed above should lead to
modification of the project design. Preparation is an iterative process and frequent
revisions of both the project design and work plan may be necessary before the final
complete design is reached. The work plan also provides a basis on which to monitor
the overall progress of the project and eventually to evaluate it.
Sources of error in preparing work plans tend to result in underestimates of duration,
ie there are virtually no compensating errors.
These biases include the following.

฀ Total omission of essential tasks.


฀ Failure to allow for interdependence of tasks ie correct sequencing. For
example, you cannot start training until training materials are largely
completed.

฀ Failure to allow for resource competition between tasks. For example, specialist
skilled workers or vehicles may be required for more than one operation in the
same period.

฀ Failure to allow for seasonal constraints (agricultural production).

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

฀ Failure to identify and allow for risks and external factors that may cause
delay.

฀ Over-optimism by planners, especially in the delivery of inputs and failure to
allow adequate time for project start-up.

฀ Pressures to assume early achievement of benefits in order to show results and
project high economic and financial internal rates of return.
At the design stage, a work plan should include a schedule showing for each
significant activity and its output
฀ the target starting and completion dates, ie the planned time frame

฀ who will be responsible for the activity

฀ who will carry out the activity and what the key inputs required are

฀ any preconditions for activities including the production of another output

This schedule may be best presented in the form of a time-scaled bar chart. Bar
charts have a number of advantages for the presentation of project schedules. Most
important is that, for planning, scheduling and, after implementation starts, for the
progress made, information is graphically recorded on a single sheet of paper. It is a
very simple and effective tool for showing the component activities of the project and
its schedule to all levels of management concerned, and can focus attention on
potential problem areas. A simplified example is shown in 5.1.1, below.
It will not always be desirable to set out a detailed work plan for the whole project at
the design stage. Detailed annual work plans may only be established on the basis of
yearly inputs made available to the project and the degree of progress achieved in
the previous year. The realities of project work preclude precise scheduling any more
ambitious than this. However, regarding project start up, work plans should be
precise. Several lessons can be drawn, for example, from experience with project
implementation in the agricultural sector.
฀ Specialist consultants should not be brought in before counterpart and
supporting services are available; similarly, equipment should not be delivered
before buildings and/or stores are ready.

฀ The development of technological packages must precede effective extension
work; training packages precede training; survey and review of existing
situation precede research, etc.

฀ Plans should be co-ordinated with seasons. For example, those that require a
local labour commitment should not be scheduled at harvest time.

฀ Impact evaluations should not be scheduled before some manifestations of
impact can be measured.

฀ Adequate time must be allowed for project start-up.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

5.1.1 Example format for a work plan presented as a time-scaled bar chart
Project X Work plan Period _____________

Timescale
Activities and Comments and
(responsibility) Year 1 Year 2 milestones
J FMA MJJAS ONDJFMAMJJASOND

Survey design and X

pilot testing
(M&E Officer)

1 1
Survey of drinking X X X X XX Survey must end
water in District Y by June 30, before
(Survey Unit) rains

2 2
Data entry and X XXXX Work completed
cleaning on September30
(Survey Unit)

Preparation of X
data analysis plan
(M&E Officer)
3
Submission of
3
Data analysis and XX X report before next
phase of
report writing implementation by
(M&E Officer) December 23

Resource
allocation

Vehicle ************************* Survey of child

* literacy in District
X must be
completed first so
Enumerator team ************************* that vehicle and
(4 persons) * enumerators are
available.

Data entry team *** ***********

(2 persons)

Supervisor *********************************

M&E Officer * ** ** *****

Source: unit author

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

 Can you add similar examples to this list from your own experience? 

 As a further optional exercise, try preparing a work plan for a small
project or set of tasks with which you are to be involved in your job. If
you do not have a suitable example at present, try it for a familiar task,
such as preparing for an outdoor barbecue or tidying up the house and
garden. 

Note that the preparation of work plans and then budgets can be integrated with the
use of logical framework analysis. Once the Logframe is complete the activities from
the narrative summary column can be copied into the work plan format. The duration
of each activity must be estimated, and their logical sequence determined. This must
take into account any interdependencies between activities and results.
With the work plan prepared, the timing of inputs and hence costs can be specified.
The format in which inputs and costs (style of budgets) should be presented and
summarised will depend on the procedures of the organisation for whom it is being
prepared – eg donor or partner country, but it can be seen that an integrated
approach flowing from problem analysis, through the Logframe to preparation of
detailed work plans and budgets will bring a more integrated and systematic
approach to planning and implementation of the project cycle.

Section Summary
฀ This section has focused upon project planning, in particular the creation of
work plans.

฀ It has explained how to create a realistic work plan for a project taking account
the resources available. It has also highlighted some of the common errors in
developing work plans.

Section 5 Self Assessment Questions

Question 9

At the design stage, what four pieces of key information should a work plan include?
Question 10

Work plans that are prepared during project preparation and prior to implementation
can highlight potential design problems. List four possible examples.

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UNIT SUMMARY
This unit has provided an overview of the identification, design and preparation of
the project cycle. These processes are iterative, so that the project concept can
continually be refined and improved.
฀ Ideas for projects may arise from many sources. It is useful to ensure that
projects are linked in order to identify needs such as those that arise from a
country’s poverty reduction strategy paper. It is important to think in terms of
the resources and opportunities which are available, and identify constraints
which need to be removed.

฀ Project identification must be based on a good understanding of local
stakeholders, their priorities and the context and situation in which they are
living. For grassroots projects, participation is vital and all of the project
identification/planning tools discussed in this unit can be used in a participatory
way.

฀ There is a logical flow and process to project formulation and design, and
various tools to help at each step of the process from understanding who the
stakeholders or clients are and the main problem which an intervention aims to
address, to setting objectives, analysing alternatives, and creating a logically
consistent project. The inclusion of appropriate stakeholders at each of these
steps adds to the ‘ownership’ and ‘buy-in’ of stakeholders to the project.

฀ Project preparation involves designing the project in more detail, which often
requires further information gathering and feasibility studies. Planning may be
more or less detailed, depending on the type of project. Many project planners
now recognise that there is little point in preparing extremely detailed plans in
advance if projects are experimental and many known or unanticipated factors
are likely to emerge during implementation. Even when projects are not
experimental, they need to be adapted to changes in the external environment
eg the market prices of crops. There should be a certain amount of flexibility in
project design.

UNIT SELF ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

Question 1

How do stakeholder analysis, problem trees, and objectives analysis relate to

Logframes?

Question 2

What is the vertical logic or means–ends logic of the Logframe?

Question 3

Four of the squares are in the wrong place – can you spot which ones they are?

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

Narrative summary Indicators of Means of Assumptions

achievement verification
Goal For sustainability:
What is the reason for What are the What sources of What conditions external
the project, the broader quantitative measures information will be to the project are
development objective or qualitative used to show that necessary for the delivery
towards which the judgments, to assess the goal has been of the intended benefits
efforts of the project whether the goal has achieved? or impact to continue for
are directed? been achieved? an extended period?
(Why is the project
undertaken? Who are
the intended
beneficiaries? What
impact is being
sought?)

Outputs/results Purpose to goal:

What outputs (type, What are the What sources of What conditions external
quality and number) quantitative measures information will be to the project are
will need to be or qualitative used to show that necessary for
produced (by activities judgements, to assess the project purpose achievement of purpose
undertaken with inputs whether the project has been achieved? to contribute to the goal?
provided) in order for purpose has been What risks need to be
the project purpose to achieved? monitored during
be achieved? implementation?

Project purpose Activities to outputs:

What specific effect is The type, quality and The sources of What external factors are
the project to achieve number of outputs to information that will necessary for activities to
as a direct result of the be produced by be used to verify that generate planned
project outputs? If the certain dates outputs have been outputs? What risks?
project is completed achieved
successfully, what
improvements or
changes could be
expected in the group,
organisation or area
towards which the
project is immediately
directed?

Activities Outputs to purpose:

What activities need to The specific activities The sources of What factors outside the
be undertaken by the to be undertaken by information that will control of project
project in order to certain dates be used to verify that management are
produce the desired outputs have been necessary for progress
outputs? achieved from outputs to purpose?
What risks?

Question 4

Choose one of the two exercises that follow depending on whether you have a better
technical knowledge of agricultural or forest production. You may, of course, attempt
both if you wish.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

(a) Alternatives for maize production

Identify and list alternative project approaches that could increase maize
production by 20% in a typical semi-arid region of a developing country.
Assume yields per acre are currently about two-thirds of the average achieved
in semi-arid sub-Saharan African countries. Although the region has some
surplus unskilled labour there is a shortage of labour and draft power for land
preparation. Timeliness for the planting for the commencement of rains is
critical, but many farmers plant too late because of the land preparation
constraints. The price of maize is controlled by Government and is only
sufficient to cover the farmer’s costs and provide a low income. Prices are
normally set with the urban markets willingness to pay very much in mind.
Reform of this pricing system in the near future is likely in response to fiscal
and macroeconomic pressures. Farmers do not always find it easy to sell maize
and receive a low proportion of the final retail price. Co-operatives, marketing
projects, improved storage facilities and roads may be appropriate
developments. Though little research relevant to the problems of the region is
currently being conducted within the country, technological improvements
developed for similar areas abroad may be appropriate. Rights to cultivate land
are based on traditional communal systems of land tenure, though such
systems are threatened by the pressures of a rapidly increasing population
density and rural-urban migration, particularly by young men. Some instances
of ‘land grabbing’ by large landowners and merchants have taken place.

The target area for the first phase of any project is a small river valley in the
foothills of an upland region. It has approximately 5000 hectares of maize
cultivation and approximately 8000 farm households. Pressure on land is
increasing but there is little other land available which is suitable for
cultivation. Some farmers are planting maize on the slopes of the foothills but
this is leading to rapid and serious soil erosion.
You may complete this exercise simply by identifying and considering possible
alternative means, or through the use of problem and objective trees.
Note that maize production is a function of both yields per hectare and area
planted, and that approaches to increase production could be disaggregated by
considering the group of factors that contribute to, or constrain each of these.
(There is, however, limited potential to increase area cultivated.) These factors
include the price of maize and inputs compared with other crops, the
availability of inputs including labour and machinery, the technical knowledge
of farmers, the existence of improved production technology, and climatic and
other natural factors. The focal development problem to be addressed is ‘the

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

(b) Alternatives for alleviating fuel wood scarcity

Identify and list alternative project approaches that could alleviate increasing
scarcity of fuel wood.
Description of the problem area

The forests of the country are increasingly under pressure from the combined
effects of rising human and livestock populations. This has led over the years
to a shrinking forest resource base at an estimated deforestation and forest
degradation rate of roughly 2% per annum. Heavy over-cutting, frequent fires
and overgrazing are recognised as severe factors causing this process. It is
now reaching the point where serious difficulties are encountered in meeting
the basic needs of people for goods and services from the forests.
The region of concern consists of fertile plains making up 17% of the total land
area of the country, but inhabited by 44% of the total population. The
population growth rate is as high as 4.1% per year. Despite a high population
density the area is geographically remote and served by a very poor level of
infrastructure. Only 10% of the land area of these plains remains forested.
The pressure on forest resources is expected to intensify as human and
livestock populations continue to increase. Over 85% of the total wood
consumed is for domestic energy. According to recent estimates the fuel wood
deficit of the region will grow from 1.8 million tonnes in 1990 to 2.9 million
tonnes by the year 2000. Similarly the timber deficit will grow from the present
0.25 million cubic metres to 1.1 million cubic metres by the year 2000. There
are already fodder deficits in the area where more than 80% of the nation’s
livestock are raised.
The population of the plains is approximately 5 million people. To this must be
added an almost equal number of largely free-ranging livestock. Demand for
fuel wood and for fodder and litter requirements have to be met from some
half million hectares of natural forests and a limited number of trees on private
and farmlands.
Due to fuel wood shortages, agricultural residues and cow dung which would
otherwise have gone to increase soil fertility (and agricultural yields) are
increasingly used for burning, thereby adversely affecting livelihoods. Energy
inefficient cooking stoves are widely used.
There is good awareness amongst the local population for community forestry
and excellent potential for tree growth in the fertile plains, but a lack of an
overall land-use management plan and related strategy for community and
private forestry development. There is poor or inadequate forest and tree
resource management in terms of quality and quantity to meet basic needs,
though there is good potential for any saleable surplus. Organised and trained
forestry user-groups are few, with limited participatory approaches and as yet
no benefit-sharing mechanisms are in place. There is a lack of trained staff in
government agencies to undertake training and extension activities.
Given the focal problem of ‘an increasing deficit between the demand for and
supply of fuel wood in the plains area’ identify alternative means of addressing
this problem.

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Project Identification Process and Selection, Manoj Kumar

KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS

Logframe the matrix completed for logical framework analysis

stakeholder individuals, groups or organisations who have an interest or stake in a

project
SWOT SWOT stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats,
analysis
which are the themes under which factors are catalogued using this
analytical tool

48