CHAPTER 5: PROBABILITY

.
efinitions:
D
Formulas: · random process -

generates outcomes that are determined purely

number in event A
of outcomes by chance.
·
PCA) =
space
total number of outcomes in sample
· probability - outcome between 0 and 1.

-must add to 1
rule:
·
complement
· law of large numbers
-
if we observe more and more trials of any
↑(A) 1 -
P(A) approaches the true
proportion
=

random process, the

Addition
· Rule for mutually exclusive events: probability.
mutually exclusive no event can happen at the same time.
P(AVB) P(A) + P(B)
·
-

Addition Rule: simulation imitates a random process in such a way that simulated
General · -

P(ANB) consistent with real-world

outcomes are outcomes.

P(AUB) P(A)
= + P(B) -

simulation process:
*
Describe how you will simulate one trial (one reptition)
·
Conditional Probabilities ("given that"):
② Perform many trials (repetitions)

③use the result to answer the question.

P(given event occurs
·
sample space - list of all possible outcomes.

P(B(A) =

EAS · conditional probability -

another
probability
event
that

is
one event

known to have
happens given
happened.
that

knowing whether or not one event has

Independent events it
-

·
·
Independent Events:
occurred does not change the probability that the
other event will happen.
P(A) P(A(BY P(AIB)
=
=

Or

P (B) P(B(AY
=
=
P(BIA) complement
OR
· AND
· General Multiplication Rule:

P(A(B) P(A) = ·P(B/A)

·
Multiplication Rule for Independent Events:

P(A-1B) P(A) .P(B)

=

·
At least one probability Rule:
-
union (V) - intersection (1) -
Ad
1 -P (none)
↑Lat least one) =

C
& A A
o
B 1 2
o
HOW SMALL DOES THIS PROBABILITY

TO BE FOR US TO SAY THAT

HAVE

-
IT IS UNUSUAL?

LESS THAN 5% Ba 3 4
if there is evidence

oiras
How to know convincing
From the
question?
percentage proportion From A B
&
or
Identify the

the problem

② Perform the simulation. 213

dots
4
out of
③ count the number of
the total number of simulation.

⑭
IF: there is

PLBLNO3P(Arc
convincing
* proportion of dots
(5%, evidence
* P(ANB)
From #3
the

pCA)
based
&
on
I A
question.

%
there is not

*proportion of
From #3
dots
15%, convincing
evidence
the
*(*1AcP(BYB ->
P(A'1B)
based
P(A'r)
on

question. P(C(yy5C -