06-Risk Management For Changing Interest Rates - RMB
06-Risk Management For Changing Interest Rates - RMB
(January to June’2026)
1 What is interest rate? Distinguish between nominal and real interest rate. Explain
different types of interest rates used in banking.
Interest Rate
Interest rate is the price of money or price of creidt, expressed as a
percentage, which a lender charges a borrower for using funds.
In simplest terms the interest rate is a ratio of the fees we must pay to obtain
credit divided by the amount of credit obtained.
Nominal and Real Interest Rate
Nominal interest rate : The stated rate without adjusting for inflation.
Real interest rate : The actual rate of return after adjusting for inflation.
The relationship is : Nominal Interest Rate = Real Interest Rate + Inflation
Diffent Types of Interest Rates
Different interest rates in banking include:
Call money rate : Rate at which commercial banks borrow from each other
for short-term needs.
Policy rate (Repo rate) : Rate at which central bank lends to commercial
banks against securities.
Reverse repo rate : Rate at which central bank borrows from commercial
banks.
Bank rate : In Bangladesh, used mainly for refinancing schemes (different
from policy rate).
Prime rate : Preferential low rate offered to highly creditworthy customers.
Commitment fee : Charge on unused portion of a sanctioned loan.
2 What forces cause interest rates to change? Describe the two-way effect of interest
rate risk on the value of a firm. [Final Exam-2024]
Cuases of Interest Rates Change
Interest rates are not set by individual banks. They are determined by the
overall borrowing and lending activities of many people and institutions in
the money and capital markets.
They also change because of how people perceive different types of risk,
such as:
risk of borrowers not repaying (default risk)
liquidity risk
inflation risk
price and reinvestment risk
maturity (term) risk
marketability and call risk
As shown in above graph, the interest rate (the price of credit) tends to settle
at the point where the quantity of loanable funds demanded by borrowers
equals the quantity supplied by lenders.
Banks also determine their lending rates based on four key components :
a. Cost of funds (borrowing cost)
b. Non-fund operating costs
c. Risk premium
d. Desired profit margin
For risky borrowers, banks start with a risk-free rate (based on treasury bills)
and add premiums for various risks.
Difficulties in Forecasting Interest Rate Changes
Forecasting interest rate changes is extremely difficult for following reasons :
1. Complex Interactions
Interest rates are the outcome of the daily interactions of thousands of
credit suppliers and demanders. This complex system is virtually
impossible to model with consistent accuracy.
2. Multiple Components
Any interest rate is made up of several basic parts. These include the real
interest rate, inflation, and different types of risk premiums such as default
risk, inflation risk, liquidity risk, and maturity risk. Each of these
components can change over time, sometimes unpredictably, because the
expectations and perceptions of lenders and borrowers keep changing.
3. Non-Parallel Shifts
Yield curves do not move in a parallel fashion. Short-term interest rates
tend to rise or fall faster and over a wider range than long-term interest
rates, making it difficult to predict how the entire rate structure will
change.
4 How does the interest rate risk affect the value of a firm? [Midterm 2, Final Exam : 2023]
Interest Rate Risk Affects the Value of a Firm
Interest rate risk affects the value of a firm mainly through its impact on profits,
asset values, and capital. The effects can be explained clearly as follows:
1. Decline in Asset Value
Interest rates and asset values have an inverse relationship. When interest
rates increase, the present value of future cash flows falls. This reduces the
market value of assets (like loans, bonds, and investments).
2. Reduction in Profitability
Interest rate risk affects both income and expenses :
Interest expense rises (higher cost of borrowing)
Repriceable (Interest-Sensitive)
Nonrepriceable Liabilities
Liabilities
1. Borrowings from the money market; 1. Demand deposits (which pay no
2. Short-term savings accounts; interest rate or a fixed interest rate);
2. Long-term savings and retirement
3. Money-market deposits (whose accounts;
interest rates are adjustable
3. Equity capital provided by the financial
frequently);
institution’s owners;
For example, a bank with interest-sensitive assets of $500 million and interest-
sensitive liabilities of $400 million is asset sensitive with a positive gap of $100
million.
Liability Sensitive Firm
If an interest-sensitive firm’s liabilities are larger than its interest-sensitive assets,
the firm then has a negative gap and is said to be liability sensitive. That means :
Liability-sensitive (negative) gap= Interest-sensitive Assets
0
Interest-sensitive Liabilities
For example, a bank with interest-sensitive assets of $150 million and interest-
sensitive liabilities of $200 million is liability-sensitive with a negative gap of
$50 million.
8 Commerce National Bank reports interest-sensitive assets of $870 million and interest-
sensitive liabilities of $625 million during the coming month. Is the bank asset sensitive or
liability sensitive? What is likely to happen to the bank’s net interest margin if interest
rates rise? If they fall?
Here, Commerce National Bank’s interest-sensitive assets are $870 and interest-
sensitive liabilities are $625. Because interest-sensitive assets are larger than
liabilities by $245 ($870-$625)million, the bank is asset sensitive.
If interest rates rise, the bank's net interest margin should rise as asset
revenues increase more than the resulting increase in liability costs.
On the other hand, if interest rates fall, the bank's net interest margin will fall
as asset revenues decline faster than liability costs.
9 How do you measure the dollar interest-sensitive gap? The relative interest-sensitive
gap? What is the interest sensitivity ratio?
Dollar Interest-Sensitive Gap
The dollar interest-sensitive gap (Dollar IS GAP) is measured by taking the
repriceable (interest-sensitive) assets (ISA) minus the repriceable (interest-
sensitive) liabilities (ISL) over some set planning period. Common planning
periods include 3 months, 6 months and 1 year.
Dollar IS GAP = ISA - ISL
Problem # 1
U.S. Treasury bills are available for purchase this week at the following prices (based upon
$100 par value) and with the indicated maturities:
a. $97.25, 182 days.
b. $95.75, 270 days.
c. $98.75, 91 days.
Calculate the bank discount rate (DR) on each bill if it is held to maturity. What is the
equivalent yield to maturity (sometimes called the bond-equivalent or coupon-equivalent
yield) on each of these Treasury Bills?
Solution :
(a). Purchase price = $97.25, Days to Maturity = 182
100 Purchase price 360
Discount Rate,DR=
100 Days to maturity
100 97.25 360 2.75 1.98 5.44
182 5.44%
100 100 100
Problem # 2
First National Bank of Bannerville has posted interest revenues of $63 million and interest
costs from all of its borrowings of $42 million. If this bank possesses $700 million in total
earning assets, what is First National’s net interest margin? Suppose the bank’s interest
revenues and interest costs double, while its earning assets increase by 50 percent. What will
happen to its net interest margin?
Solution :
Given that, Interest Income = $63 million
Interest Expenses = $42 million
Total Earning Assets = $700 million
Interest income Interest expense $63 $42 21
Net Interest Margin, NIM=
Total earning assets
= $700 700 0.03 3%
If the bank’s interest revenues and interest costs become double, also total earning
assets increase by 50%, then
Interset Income $63 2 = $126 million
Interset Expense $42 2 = $84 million
Total Earning Assets $700 700 0.50=$(700+350)=$1,050 million
$126 $84 42
Net Interest Margin, NIM= 0.04 4%
$1,050 1050
Problem # 3
Suppose Carroll Bank and Trust reports interest-sensitive assets of $570 million and interest-
sensitive liabilities of $685 million. What is the bank’s dollar interest-sensitive gap? Its
relative interest-sensitive gap and interest-sensitivity ratio?
Solution : Given that,
Interest-sensitive assets, IAS = $ 570 million
Interest-sensitive liabilities, IAL = $ 685 million
Dollar Interest-Sensitive Gap
Dollar IS GAP = ISA - ISL $570 $685 million -$115 million
Relative Interest-Sensitive Gap
Dollar IS GAP $115 milion
Relative IS GAP 0.2018
Size of financial institution (Assets) $570 million
Interest-Sensitive Ratio
ISA $570 million
Interest Sensitivity Ratio, ISR= 0.8321
ISL $685 million
Problem # 4
ABC Bank has interest-sensitive assets of $400 million, interest sensitive liabilities of $325
million and total assets of $500 million. What is the bank’s dollar interest-sensitive gap? What
is the relative interest sensitive gap? What is the value of interest sensitivity ratio? Is it asset
sensitive or liability sensitive? Under what scenario for market interest rates will the bank
experience a gain and loss in net interest income? [Final Exam : 2022]
Solution : Given that,
Interest-sensitive assets, IAS = $400 million
Interest-sensitive liabilities, IAL = $325 million
Total Assets = $500 million
Dollar Interest-Sensitive Gap
Dollar IS GAP = ISA - ISL $400 $325 million $75 million
Relative Interest-Sensitive Gap
Dollar IS GAP $75 milion
Relative IS GAP 0.15
Size of financial institution (Assets) $500 million
Interest-Sensitive Ratio
ISA $400 million
Interest Sensitivity Ratio, ISR= 1.23
ISL $325 million
Here, the interest sensitivity gap is positive as well as relative IS GAP greater than
zero, so it is asset sensitive.
There will be a gain in net interest income if the market interest rates are rising,
becuase asset returns increase more than liability costs.
There will be a loss in net interest income, if the market interest rates are falling,
because asset returns decrease more than liability costs.
Problem # 5
Peoples’ Savings Bank has a cumulative gap for the coming year of + $135 million, and interest
rates are expected to fall by two and a half percentage points. Can you calculate the expected
change in net interest income that this thrift institution might experience? What change will
occur in net interest income if interest rates rise by one and a quarter percentage points?
Problem # 6
A bond held by a savings institution that carries a duration of four years and a current market
value (price) of $1,000. Market interest rates attached to comparable bonds are about 10
percent currently, but recent forecasts suggest that market rates may rise to 11 percent. If this
forecast turns out to be correct, what percentage change will occur in the bond’s market value?
Solution :
Given that,
Duarion, D = 4 years
Current Interest Rate = 10% =0.10
Future Interest Rate = 11% =0.11
Interest Rate Change, i 0.11 0.10 0.01
Problem # 7
Carter National Bank holds $15 million in government bonds having a duration of 12 years. If
interest rates suddenly rise from 6 percent to 7 percent, what percentage change should occur in
the bonds’ market price?
Solution :
Given that,
Duarion, D = 12 years
Current Interest Rate = 6% =0.06, New Interest Rate = 7% =0.07
Interest Rate Change, i 0.07 0.06 0.01
Problem # 8
Suppose that a savings institution has an average asset duration of 2.5 years and an average
liability duration of 3.0 years. If the savings institution holds total assets of $560 million and total
liabilities of $467 million, does it have a significant leverage-adjusted duration gap? If interest
rates rise, what will happen to the value of its net worth?
i i
NW DA A DL L
1 i 1 i
10% 8% 10% 8%
3 $300 2 $250
1 8% 1 8%
2% 2%
3 $300 2 $250
1 8% 1 8%
0.02 0.02
900 500
1.08 1.08
16.67 9.26 $7.41 million
Therefor, if the interest rate rises from 8% to 10% then the bank's net worth
would fall by approximately $7.41 million.
If Interest Rates falls from 8% to 6% the net worth would be :
i i
NW DA A DL L
1 i 1 i
6% 8% 6% 8%
3 $300 2 $250
1 8%
1 8%
2% 2%
3 $300 2 $250
1 8% 1 8%
0.02 0.02
900 500
1.08 1.08
16.67 9.26 $7.41 million
Therefor, if the interest rate falls from 8% to 6% then the bank's net worth
would increase by approximately $7.41 million.
Problem # 10
ABC bank has an average asset duration of 3.25 years and an average liability duration of 1.75
years. Its liabilities amount to Tk 485million and assets amount to Tk 512 million. Suppose
interest rate was 7 percent and then rise to 8 percent. What will happen to the bank’s net
worth as a result of a decline in interest rate? Final Exam-2023
Solution
Given than, Average Asset duration, DA = 3.25 years
Average Liability duration, DL = 1.75 years
Total Assets = $512 million
Total Liabilities = $485 million