CHAPTER OUTLINE 3-1. 3-2. 3-3, 3-4, INTRODUCTION SHORT HISTORY BASIC TERMINOLOGY LEARNING OBJECTIVES. Upon completion of this chapter, you should be able to : 1. Learn about the different approaches to the theory of probability like the classical/ mathematical probability, empirical probability and axiomatic probability, along with their limitations. . Understand the addition theorem, the multiplication theorem and other important theorems on probability , and their use in solving problems in various diversified situations, |. Demonstrate the concepts of conditional probability, pairwise independence and mutual independence of events |. Appreciate the use of probability theory in ‘our day-to-day life and in the decision. making in the face of uncertainty. MATHEMATICAL (OR CLASSICAL OR ‘A PRIORY’) PROBABILITY 3-4-1. Limitations of Mathematical Probability STATISTICAL (OR EMPIRICAL) PROBABILITY 35-1. Limitations of Empirical Probability SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY MATHEMATICAL TOOLS : PRELIMINARY NOTIONS OF SETS 3-7-1. 3-7-2. 3-7-3. 7-4. 3-7-5. Sets and Elements of Sets Operations on Sets Algebra of Sets Limit of Sequence of Sets Classes of Sets. AXIOMATIC APPROACH TO PROBABILITY 3-8-1. Random Experiment, Sample Space and Elementary Events 3-8-2. Event 3-8-3. Acceptable Assignment of Probabilities 38-4, Natural Assignment of Probabilities—? 3-2 FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS & 3.8.5. Axiomatic Probability 3.86. Algebra of Events. 3.9. SOME THEOREMS ON PROBABILITY 3.941, Addition Theorem of Probability 3.9.2, Extension of Addition Theorem of Probability to Events 3.9.3. Boole’s Inequality 3:10. CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY 3:11. MULTIPLICATION THEOREM OF PROBABILITY 3.12. INDEPENDENT EVENTS 3.13. MULTIPLICATION THEOREM OF PROBABILITY FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS 3:14. EXTENSION OF MULTIPLICATION THEOREM OF PROBABILITY TO n EVENTS. 3:14. Extension of Multinomial Theorem of Probability for n Independent Events. 3.15. PAIRWISE INDEPENDENT EVENTS 315-1. Mutual Independent Events 345-2. Probability of Occurrence of At Least One of the Events. CHAPTER CONCEPTS QUIZ/DISCUSSION AND REVIEW QUESTIONS! ASSORTED REVIEW PROBLEMS FOR SELF-ASSESSMENT 3-1. INTRODUCTION If an experiment is repeated under essentially (HGmOgERCONS and Sita ‘seGnidationg we generally come across two types of situations : (i) The result or what is usually known as the ‘outcome’ is unique or certain. (ii) The result is not unique but may be one of the several possible outcomes. The’ phenomena covered by (i) are known as 1 ‘predictable’ phenomena. By a deterministic phenomenon we mean one in which the For example, (a) For a perfect gas, V « fy i., PV = consant, where V is the volume and P is the pressure of the gas, provided the temperature remains the same. (b) The velocity ‘v’ of a particle after time ‘is given by v = u + at where u is the initial velocity and a is the acceleration. The equation uniquely determines v if the right-hand quantities are known. hm’s Law, viz., C = E+ where C is the flow of current, E the potential difference between the two ends of the conductor and R the resistance, uniquely determines the value C as soon as Eand Rare given.meory OF PROBABILITY 3-3 Addeterministic model i under which an opedinat ee as a model which stipulates that the conditions Piva number of situations oo determine tne outcome of the experiment. a covered by Ci) aba srminisic model sufces, However, there are Miproach and are known as cise enue ‘not lend themselves to deterministic yrenomena are frequently observ. ee on prow phenomena. Such Phen day-to-day life ed in business, economics and social sciences or i , a random toss of a uniform coin we are not sure of getting the head or tail ii) A manufactures i @ Pani! f cannot ascertain the future demand of his product with (iif) A sales manager cannot predict with certainty about the sales target next year. (io) 4 7 ae tube has lasted for one year, nothing can be predicted about its Probability is also used informally in day-to-day life. We daily come across the sentences like : 1 Possibly, it will rain to-night. 2. There is a high chance of my getting the job next month. 3, This year’s demand for the product is likely to exceed that of the last 4. The odds are 3:2 in favour of getting the contract applied for. All the above sentences, with words like ‘possibly’, ‘high chance’ ‘tikely’ and ‘odds’ inty about the happening of the event A” are expressions indicating a degree of uncertainty al fumerical measure of uncertainty is provided by a very important branch of Mathematics ealled the “Theory of Probability". Broadly, there are three possible states 'y’. The probability theory of expectation— certainty’, ‘impossibility’ and ‘uncertaint by 0 and the various grades of uncertainties by describes certainty by 1, impossibili coefficients ranging between 0 re cording to Ya-Lin Chou : “Probability is the science of decision-making with {cet itn tec funni” —_—_—_— year’s. 3-2. SHORT HISTORY Galileo (1564-1642), an Italian mathematician, was the first to attempt at a quantitative measure of probability while dealing with some problems related to the theory of dice in gambling. But the first foundation of the mathematical theory of probability was laid in the 5 d-seventeenth century by two French mathematicians, B. Pascal (1623-62) and P. Fermat (1601-65), while solving a number of problems posed by French gambler and noble man ‘Chevalier-De-Mere to Pascal. The famous posed by De-Mere to Pascal is : person who first gains a c before the game is completed. number of points each has wor The e stake. They stop playing ded on the basis of the after a lengthy f points wins the stake to be deci The two mathematicians, ‘ertain number Oo! How is a34 FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTIC, correspondence between themselves ultimately solved this problem and thi correspondence laid the first foundation of the science of probability. Next stalwart in) this field was J. Bernoulli (1654-1705) whose ‘Treatise on Probability’ was published posthumously by his nephew N. Bernoulli in 1713. De-Moivre (1667-1754) also did considerable work in this field and published his famous “Doctrine of Chances’ in 1718, Other main contributors are : T. Bayes (Inverse probability), P.S. Laplace (1749-1827) who after extensive research over a number of years finally published ‘Theoric analytique des probabilities’ in 1812. In-addition to these, other outstanding contributors are Levy, Mises and R.A. Fisher. Russian mathematician also have made very valuable contributions to the modern theory of probability. Chief contributors, to mention only a few of them are chev (1821-94) who founded the Russian School of Statisticians; A. Markoff (1856-1922); Liapounoff (Central Limit Theorem) ; A. Khintchine (Law of Large Numbers) and A. Kolmogorov, who axiomised the calculus of probatgiigt 3-3. BASIC TERMINOLOGY In this section we shall explain the various terms which are used in the definition of probability under different approaches. Penton Experiment. If in each trial of an experiment conducted under identical conditions, the outcome is not unique, but may be any one of the possible outcomes, then such an experiment is called a random experiment Examples of random experiments are Sestte acco throwing a dic, selecting a card from a pack of playing cards, selecting, family out of a given group of families, ber of possible results which can occur but there etc. In all these cases, there are a num! is an uncertainty as to which one of them will actually occur. Notes : (i) A die is a small cube used in gambling. On its six faces, dots are marked as Pleat 6F die A. The outcome of throwing a die isthe number of dots ts uppermost face. pack of cards consists of four suits called Spades, Hearts, Diantonds and Clubs. Each suit nsists of 13 cards, of which nine cards are numbered from 2 to 10, an ace, king, a queen anda .d clubs are black-faced cards, while hearts and diamonds are ved- con jack (or knave). Spades an faced cards. 2. Outcome. 3, Trial and Event. Any particular performance of trial and outcome or combination of outcomes are termed as events aledly, the result is not unique, We may gel acoin is a random experiment or trial and The result of a random experiment will be called an outcome. a random experiment is called a For example, (i) If a coin is tossed repe tany of the two faces, head or tail. Thus tossing of getting of a head or tail is an event. & an experiment which consists of the throw of @six-faced die and observing the umber of points that appear, the possible outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5,6 vents could also be stated as In the same experiment, the possible ¢) a point greater thaw ; “Odd number of points’ ; ‘Coen number of points’ “Getting and so on.qHeoRY OF PROBABILITY—| 3.5 Event is called simple if it corres Ponds to a single possible outcome of the experiment otherwise itis known as a compound o} rae T composite event. Thus in tossing of a single die the event of getting “6 isa simple event but the event of Betting an even number is a composite evi xhaustive Events or Cases. The total number of possible outcomes of a “Genes is known as the exhaustive events or cases. For example, tossing of a coin, there are two exhaustive cases, viz., head and tail (the possi lity of the coin standing on an edge being ignored), (ii) In throwing of a die, there are 6 exhaustive cases since 1,2, .- 6may come uppermost. (iii) In drawing two cards from a Pp 52C,, since 2 cards can be drawn out of any one of the 6 faces ack of cards, the exhaustive number of cases is 52 cards in °C, ways (iv) In throwing of two dice, the exhaustive number of cases is 6? = 36, since any of the numbers 1 to 6 on the first die can be associated with any of the 6 numbers on the other die. In general, in throwing of dice, the exhaustive number of cases is 6". ¢ Favourable Events or Cases. The number of cases favourable to an event in a trial is the number of outcomes which entail the happening of the event. For example, (i) In drawing a card from a pack of cards the number of cases favourable to drawing of an ace is 4, for drawing a spade is 13 and for drawing a red card is 26. throwing of two dice, the number of cases favourable to getting the sum 5 is : (1,4), (4, 1), (2, 3), (3, 2), i., 4. lly Exclusive Events. Events are said to be mutually exclusive or the happening of any one of them prechides the happening of all the jf no two or more of them can happen simultancously in the same trial. For throwing a die all the 6 faces numbered 1 to 6 are mutually exclusive since if any One of these faces comes, the possibility of others, in the same trial, is ruled out. (i) Similarly in tossing a coin the events head and tail are mutually exclusive. ally Likely Events. Outcomes of trial are said to be equally likely if taking into consideration all the relevant evidences, thi ere is no reason to expect one in preference to the others, For example, (i) In a random toss of an unbiased or uniform coin, head and tail are equally likely events, throwing an unbiased die, all the six faces arv cqually likely to come. Independent Events. Several events are said to be independent if the happening {or non-happening) of an event is not affected by the supplementary knowledge Soncerning the occurrence of any number of the remaining events, For example, () In tossing an gif@WE coin, the event of getting a head in the first toss is pendent of Setting a head in the second, third and subsequent throws. PP wen a dic is thrown twice, the result of the fist throw does tesult of the second throw. ind not affect the A fi) If we draw a card from a pack of well-shuffled cards and re Tawing the second card, the result of the second draw is independ: ad But, however, if the first card drawn is not replaced then the “pendent on the first draw. Place it before lent of the first second draw is36 FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS 3-4, MATHEMATICAL (OR CLASSICAL OR ‘A PRIORI’) PROBABILITY Definition. If a random experiment or a trial results in ‘n’ exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes (or cases), out of which m are favourable to the occurrence of an event E, then the probability ‘p’ of occurrence (or happening) of E, usually denoted by P(E), is given by : Fatal nuniber of exlaustive cnses = 1 iber_of favourable cases m . xhaustive " + (3-1) This definition was given by James Bernoulli who was the first person to obtain a quantitative measure of uncertainty. Remarks 1. Since m 20, n>0and m (N=1) (N-2) Example 3-16. What is the probability that at least two out of n people have the same berthday ? Assume 365 days ina year and that all days are equally likely. Solution. Since the birthday of any person can fall on any one of the 365 days, the ©xhaustive number of cases for the birthdays of n persons is 365". Lf the birthdays of all n persons fall on different days, then the number of favourable cases is : 365 (365 - 1) (365-2)... [365 - (1 - 1)], ‘because in this case the birthday of the first Person can fall on any one of 365 days, the birthday of the second person can fall on any one of the remaining 364 days, and so on. Hence, the probability (p) that birthdays ofall the n persons are different is given by: = 365 (365 - 1) (365 - 2) ... (365 - (n= 1) } pe 36" 7 (3) oa) (5 Hence, the required probability that at least two persons have same birthday is I-p = (1-35) (1-2) (1-3.).. (32) Example 3-17. Compare the chances of throwing 4 with one die, 8 with tivo dice and 12 with three dice. Solution. (i) Probability of throwing 4 with one die : There are 6 possible ways in which the die can fall, and of these one is favourable to the required event . Required probability (p,) = (Gi) Probability of throwing 8 with two dice : Exhaustive number of cases in single throw with two dice is 6 = 36. Now the sum of ‘8’ can be obtained on the two dice in the following ways : (2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2), ic., 5 cases in all, where the first and second number in the brackets ( ) refer to the numbers on the Ist and 2nd die respectively. Required probability (p:) = - (ii) Probability of throwing 12 with three dice : The exhaustive number of ways in a single throw of three dice = 6 x 6 x6 = 216. To make a throw of 12, the three dice must show the faces either (6, 1, 5) or (6, 2, 4) or (6, 3, 3) or (5, 2, 5) or (5, 3, 4) or (4, 4, 4). The first two of these arrangements can occur in 3 ! = 6 ways each, the second two (ie, third and fourth arrangement) in sa + ways each, the fifth in 3 ! = 6 ways and the last in one way only. Thus, the total number of favourable cases = 6 + 6 +3+3+6+1=25. Required probability (py) = 25 Hence the chances of throwing 4 with one die, 8 with two dice, and 12 with three dice are Pippa bi: or 36:30:25,ie 3-16 FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTIC; Example 3-18. A and B throw with three dice ; if A throws 14, find B’s chance throwing a higher number. Solution. To throw higher number than A, B must throw either 15 or 16 or 17 or 1g Now a throw amounting to 18 must be made up of (6, 6, 6), which can occur i one way ; 17 can be made up of (6, 6, 5), which can occur in 3777 = 3 ways ; 16 may be made up of (6, 6, 4), and (6, 5,5), each of which arrangements can occur in Sire ways ; 15 can be made up of (6, 4, 5), or (6, 3, 6), or (5, 5, 5), which can occur in 3 !, 3 and 1 way respectively. . The number of favourable cases. =1+3+3+3+ 6+3+1=20. 6x6x6=216 Ina random throw of 3 dice, the exhaustive number of cases = 6° = 5 Hence, the required probability = 2 eae Example 3-19. Each coefficient in the equation ax? + bx + c= 0, is determined by throwing an ordinary die. Find the probability that the equation will have real roots. Solution. The roots of the equation ax? + bx +c = 0 will be real if its discriminant is non-negative, ic., if B-4acz0 = b> 4ac. Since each coefficient in equation ax? + bx 4 ¢ = 0 is determined by throwing an ordinary die, each of the coefficients a, b and c can take the values from 1 to 6. -. Total number of possible outcomes (all being equally likely) = 6 x 6 x 6 = 216. The number of favourable cases can be enumerated as follows : “ . G fac 6 No. of cases (so that b > 4ac) 1 1 1 4 2,3,4,5,6 1x5=5 2 @ fa 2 _ (i) {3 1 8 3,4,5,6 2x4=8 3 @ fa 3 (ii) {3 1 2 4,5,6 2x3=6 4 4 o {4 1 16 4,5,6 3x3=9 ii) (2 2 @ {: 5 - 5 (i) |S 7 2 5,6 2x2=4 6 @ fi § (i) 16 - (iii) \3 2 24 5,6 4x2=8 (io) [2 3 7 (ac=7 is not possible) 8 @ [2 4 (i) i 2 2 6 9 3 3 36 6 ince b? 2 4ac and since the maximum value of b? is 36, ac = 10, 11, 12, .. ete. is not possible. Hence total number of favourable cases = 43. Required probability = 4%| the numbers on the drawn tickets are oF proBAsltiTY—! 317 pramark. THE ae p that in the above case, the equation ax? + bx + ¢= 0, will have vagary ts BE y im wT P (That equation ax? + bx + ¢ =0, has real roots.) 1-8-2. ~ 216 © 216 0 an, Find the chance 9-20. The sum of ee non-negative quantities is equal shat their tuct is not less than times their greatest product. . Let x> Oand y > 0, be the given quantities so that x + ~ 2n. 1) We know that the product of two positive quantities whose sum is constant ed greatest when the quantities are equal. Thus the product of x and y 16 (immu when x= = 7 . Maximum product =1.1 P (43-4) =P (y >be =p [x2 8nx + 3n?) <0] =P [(2x-3n)( a )-r (xen-92 32) [From (*)] Now ax -n) <0) =P (x lies between > and) Favourable range = BF am, Total range = 2" Hence, the required probability avourable rane = 7 = 1. fy numbered, three are draw Example 3-21. Out of (2n + 1) tickets consecutivel random. Find the chance that the numbers on them are in AP. Solution. Since ‘out of (2n + 1) tickets, 3 tickets can be drawn in ?"* 1C, ways, 2 Exhaustive number of ca: = ne ti2n Ona =», nnd ses =" *1C3= To ind the favourable number of cases WE © to enumerate all the cases i sn AP with common difference, (say d mat in which =1,2,3, um=1,1). lfd= 1, the possible cases are as follows: fd =2, the possible cases are as follows : : 3, 5 4, 6 4,2 3% 2 3 4, 2, n-1, 0, 2n+1, on-3, ane, antl fen 2 ssesinal i.e., (an —3) cases in all; and so on =n~1, the possible cases are : ee 2n+1,20; 5, 142,204 1, ie, 3 cases in all Then ae is only one case, viz., (Ir See savourable canes = R=) * 2 3)* 143454 + 2m, cameras n+1,2n+1)- 4543413.18 FUNDAMENTALS OF MATHEMATICAL STATIS ti which isa series in A.P. with a= 1, d=2 and n terms. Number of favourable cases. = 5 {1 +(2n -1} =n 2 Hence, the required probability =, ¢gy?=1)/3 = @n?=1) | 1,2, 6n— Lare placed in a bag and ¢ Example 3:22. If 6n tickets numbered 0, 1, 2, are drawn out, show that the chance that the sum of the numbers on them is equal to 61 3nf(6n — 1) (6n - 2). Solution. The total number o} oC, =n (6n-1) (6n - 2). Favourable cases for obtaining a sum of 6n below: { ways of drawing 3 tickets out of 6n is given by on the three drawn tickets are give (0, 3n-1,3n +1), ie, (n-1) cases (1,3n-1,3n), i, (@n-2) cases ie., (3n 4) cases 01,6n-1); (0,2,6n-2); (1,2,6n-3); (1,3, 6n-4); (2,3, 62-5); (24,6n-6)5 (2, 31-2, 3n), 3,4,61-7); (3/5,6n-8)j oi (3,3n-2,3n-1), ie, (8n-5) cases (2n-2,2n- 12043); Qn-2;2n,2n +2) ive,, 2cases (2n-1,2n,2n +1) ie., Lease =, Total number of favourable cases = {(Gn-1) + Bn-4) + +542} + {Qn-2) + Gn-5) + +441} t of (*) is the sum of 1 terms of an Arithmet: The expression in each bracke Progression (A.P.) series. "-. Total number of favourable cases ={2+5+ 1. + (Qn 4) + Bn -1)} + (Lede... + Gn-5)+ 6-2} =f (2x2+(1-1)3} +5 {2x14 (n-1)x3} = (443-342 430-3) = 30? on ony 3n? Hence, the required probability = 5 (@;— Na 3 = @w- 2) 3.6, SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY Quite often we come across statements as follows : (i) An old man says that the chance of rain on a particular given dav is 60 per cent. (ii) An expert of cricket says that the chance of India’s winning the triangu!" tone day cricket series against South Africa and Kenya are 40 per cent (iil) In the view of stocks and share expert, the chance that the pe) of the shares of a particular company will double in the next month is 7 (iv) The odds that a particular horse will win in the race are 4: 1.—_— OO THEORY OF PROBABILITY—| 319 II the above cases, the probabilities (chances) of occurrence of the clang events are assigned by individuals and are based on their personal jungement, wisdom, intuition and expertise. ‘These probabilities are called the subjective probabilities and represent thalegrce of belief and the confidence, one has in the oocurrence of the respective cups ich probabilities can be calculated in all the cases, though the probabilities assigned by different persons to the same event may » from person to person 3.7. MATHEMATICAL TOOLS : PRELIMINARY NOTIONS OF SETS The set theory was developed by the 1918). 3-7-1. Sets and Elements of Sets./A set is a well-defined collection or aggregate of all possible objects having given Properties and specified according to a well- defined rule. The objects comprising a set are called elements, members or points of the set. Sets are often denoted by capital letters, viz., A, B, C, etc. If x is an clement of the set A, we write symbolically x € A (x belongs to A). If x is not a member of the set A,we write x € A (x does not belong to A). Sets are often described by describing the properties possessed by their members. Thus the set A of all non-negative rational numbers with square less than 2 will be written as : German mathematician, G. Cantor (1845- A = (x: x rational, x20, x? <2) If every element of the set A belongs to the set B, i.c., if. € A = x € B then we say that A is a subset of B and write symbolically A ¢ B (A is contained in B) or B_ 2A(B contains A). Two sets A and B are said to be equal or identical if AC B and BcAand write A = B or B= A. A null or an emipty set is one which does not contain any clement at all and is denoted by 6. Remarks. Every set is a subset of itself. “2. Anempty set is subset of every set. pty ry 8. A set containing only one element is conceptually distinct from the element itself, but will be represented by the same symbol for the sake of convenience. As will be the case in all our applications of set theory, especially to probability theory, we shall have a fixed set S, (say), given in advance, and we shall be concerned only with subsets of this given set. The underlying set S may vary from one application to another, be referred to as universal set of each particular discourse. 3-7-2. Operations on Sets. The union of two given sets A and B, denoted by AUB. is defined as a set consisting of all those points which belong to either A or 3 or both. Thus symbolically : AUB =|x: xe Aorxe Bl. it will Similarly U Aj=(x:x€ Aj for at least one i= 1, 2, .., n} in The intersection of two sets A and B, denoted by A B, is defined as a set Consisting of those elements which belong to both A and B. Thus AQB ={x:xe€ Aand xe B) Similarly A 4, = aT x:x€ Ajforalli=1,2,...,n). Forexample, if A = (1, 2, 5, 8, 10) and B = (2,4, 8, 12}, then AUB ={1,2,4,5,8, 10, 12} and A B = (2, 8}.