Post Graduate Diploma in
Supply Chain Management (SCM)
Course Name: Supply Chain
Analytics (SCA)
MODULE – 3 FORECASTING
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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
Understand the fundamental principles and key concepts in forecasting.
Learn the different classifications and types of forecasting methods.
Apply time series analysis methods to real-world scenarios.
Understand the characteristics and applications of cumulative forecasting in time series analysis.
Grasp the concept and application of naïve forecasting in time series analysis.
Learn the principles and application of moving average forecasting in time series analysis.
Understand the principles of exponential smoothing in time series analysis.
Understand the importance of measuring bias and accuracy in forecasting.
Learn the stages and components of the new product development process.
Integrate forecasting techniques and new product development strategies.
Enhance communication skills in presenting and interpreting forecasting results.
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Forecasting Truisms
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Forecasting Truisms
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Forecasting Truisms
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Forecasting Truisms
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Forecasting Truisms
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Forecasting Truisms
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Forecasting Truisms
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Forecasting Truisms
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How to determine Bias and Accuracy with Forecasting Metrics?
Accuracy- Determine the absolute value of MAPE, MSE, RMSE or MAD. The
value closer to 0 have better forecast.
Bias- Determine the absolute value of MD or MPE. The value closer to 0 have
better forecast.
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Find file “Class3_VMI1984_Example.xlsx”
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What are new products anyway?
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Module 3 Task
1) Open the provided file “Module3_task_DI-[Link]”
2) Answer the following questions-
a) What is the coefficient of variation of the demand? (Use the STDEV.S function to calculate
the standard deviation of this sample.
b) What is the forecast for the demand for DI-319 in time period 15 using a Naive model,
Cumulative model and 4 period moving average?
c) What is the MAPE for the next period Naive model, Cumulative model and 4 period
moving average?
d) Suppose that you believe that the demand for part DI-319 has a positive [Link] think
that sales will be increasing per time period going forward. Assuming there is a trend in the demand,
which forecasting model is most appropriate to use?
i) Cumulative Model
ii) Naive Model
iii) 4 Period Moving Average
iv) Moving Average for more than 4 periods
v) None of the above
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LEARNING OUTCOMES
Articulate common forecasting truisms, recognizing the guiding principles and challenges in the
forecasting process.
Categorize forecasting methods based on their characteristics, applications, and underlying principles.
Analyze time series data using cumulative, naïve, moving average, and exponential smoothing methods,
gaining practical insights into forecasting.
Apply cumulative forecasting to scenarios where historical data is accumulated over time.
Use naïve forecasting methods for quick and simple predictions in time series data.
Calculate and interpret moving averages for smoothing time series data.
Apply simple, Holt-Winter, and double exponential smoothing methods to make accurate forecasts in time
series data.
Calculate and interpret forecasting accuracy metrics such as Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE),
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).
Identify and explain the key stages in new product development, including idea generation, concept
development, testing, and launch.
Apply forecasting methods in predicting demand for new products during the development process,
optimizing inventory and production planning.
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Any
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Thank You
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