CHAPTER 3: BASIC PROBABILITY

EXPECTED OUTCOME
Students acquiring to:
• Understanding of how to quantify and deal with uncertainty in various situations.
• Understanding statistical concepts and methods.
• Apply these concepts to solve real-world problems and make better predictions.
• Probability teaches you to think critically and make logical decisions based on available
information. It enhances your analytical skills and helps you evaluate situations with a more
informed perspective.

TERM USED IN PROBABILITY THEORY

• Experiment
An experiment is a process when performed will give one result only.

• Sample space, S
When we write down all the possible outcomes of our experiment, we have defined the
sample space of the experiment. The possible outcomes in S are listed in curly brackets,{ }.

• Events
An event is a set of outcomes which satisfies a given condition. It is a subset of the sample
space.

• Venn diagram
A Venn diagram is a simple pictorial representation of the relationships between events.

• Complement of an event
̅ and
The complement of an event A is the event that A does not occur. It is denoted by A
contains all the experimental outcomes that are not contained in event A.

• Union
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The union of events A and B is the
collection of all outcomes that belong either to A or B or to both A and B and is denoted by
A ∪ B.

• Intersection of events
Let A and B be the two events defined in a sample space. The intersection of A and B
represents the collection of all outcomes that are common to both A and B and is denoted
by A ∩ B.

1 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

PROBABILITY, P
• A measurement of the likelihood (or chance, possibility, proportion) of an event will occur
in a given sample space.
• The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes of an experiment must be one.
• The smallest value that probability can have is 0 and the largest value it can have is 1.

APPROACHES TO PROBABILITY
1) Classical Probability
Probability that is calculated without the experiment being performed. It involves having
a complete list of all possible outcomes and counting the exact number that constitute the
event.

Total number of outcomes which constitute the event

Probability of an event =
Total number of possible outcomes

Let A be an event in the sample space. n(A) ≡ total number of outcomes belong to event
A, n(S) ≡ total number of possible outcomes in the sample space. Then, the probability
n(A)
of an event A, P(A) = .
n(S)

Example:
A fair die is thrown. Let E be the event “the number is odd”.
a) State the sample space. b) Find P(E).

2) Empirical Probability (Relative Frequency Concept)

Probability that is calculated using the results of an experiment that has been performed
a number of times. It means ‘as seen in practice’ or ‘as experienced’.

Example:
A survey of 350 families gave the following data on the number of children under 16
years old in each family:

Find the probability of the following events:

a) A, a family selected has no children.
b) B, a family selected has at least one child.
(Answer: a) 37/70, b) 33/70)

2 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

3) Subjective Probability
The probability assigned to an event based on subjective judgment, experience,
information and belief. It is usually influenced by the bias, preferences, and experience
of the person assigning the probability. Subjective probability is useful in situations when
an empirical or a priori probability cannot be computed.

LAWS OF PROBABILITY
• The Complement Rule
̅ is the complementary event of A then P(A
If A ̅) = 1 − P(A).

• The Additional Rule

Let A and B to be two events defined in a sample space S. Probability of either event A or
B or both A and B happen, P(A ∪ B).

(1) The rule of addition for two mutually exclusive events:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B).

❖ Events that are mutually exclusive cannot happen at the same time.

(2) The rule of addition for two non-mutually exclusive events:

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B).

Example:
A die is thrown once. E is the event of getting even number and O is the event of getting odd
number. Are the two events mutually exclusive? Explain.

Solution:

3 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

Example:
When drawing a card randomly from a deck of playing cards, what is the probability that

(a) an ace will be drawn?

(b) a king will be drawn?
(c) a heart will be drawn?
(d) an ace or a king will be drawn?
(e) an ace or a heart will be drawn?

Solution:

• Exhaustive event
A1 , A2 , … , A𝑛 are exhaustive event if A1 ∪ A2 ∪ … ∪ A𝑛 = 𝑆

• Conditional Probability
When an event happens is considered with the condition that another event happens, then
the event is a conditional event. The conditional probability of the occurrence of event B
given that event A has occurred, denoted by P(B|A) is defined by:

P(A ∩ B)
P(B|A) = if P(A) > 0.
P(A)

4 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

Example:
The probabilities that a student will fail Accounting, Mathematics, or both are P(A) = 0.20,
P(M) = 0.15, and P(A ∩ M) = 0.03 respectively. What is the probability that:
(a) he will fail Accounting given that he has failed Mathematics?
(b) he will fail Mathematics given that he has failed Accounting?

Solution:

• Multiplication Rule
Let A and B to be two events defined in a sample space S.

(1) The rule of multiplicaton for two independent events:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B).

❖ Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of event A

does not affect the occurrence of event B.
❖ If If A and B are independent then:

P(B|A) = P(B)
P(A|B) = P(A)

(2) The rule of multiplicaton for two dependent events:

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B|A).

5 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

Example:
Given P(G) = 0.5, P(H) = 0.4 and P(G and H) = 0.1.
a) Draw a Venn diagram and calculate
i) P(G | H) ii) P(H | G) ̅)
iii) P(H
iv) P(G or H) ̅)
v) P(G or H
b) Are the events G and H mutually exclusive? Explain.
c) Are the events G and H independent? Explain.

Solution:
(a)

Note:
1. Two events A and B with P(A) ≠ 0 and P(B) ≠ 0are mutually exclusive.
 A and B are dependent events.
2. Two events A and B with P(A) ≠ 0 and P(B) ≠ 0 are independent.
 A and B cannot be mutually exclusive.
3. Dependent events may or may not be mutually exclusive.

6 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

TREE DIAGRAM
• Is a graphical aid to help us visualize problems involving combinations of trials. It can be
used whenever the probability of each stage of the outcomes is dependent on the previous
one or not.

• Each outcome is represented by a branch of the tree.

Example:
A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are defective. What is the probability that both are
defective if 2 DVDs are selected consecutively and randomly from this box
(a) with replacement; (b) without replacement?

Solution: with replacement:

Solution without replacement:

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Example:
In In a certain college, the girls constitute 60% of the student population. 25% of the boys and
10% of the girls are studying Statistics. Draw a well-labelled probability tree diagram with joint
probabilities calculated to illustrate this situation. If a student is selected at random, determine
the probability that the student is
(a) a girl and studying Statistics,
(b) a boy and studying Statistics,
(c) studying Statistics,
(d) a girl given that the student studying Statistics.

Solution:

CONTINGENCY TABLE
• A contingency table is a table in which all possible events (or outcomes) for one variable
are listed as row headings and all possible events for a second variable are listed as column
headings.

• The value entered in each cell of the table is the observed frequency of each joint
occurrence.

8 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

Example:
Eighty applicants for a job were assessed as either good or poor for their oral and written
communication skills. The resulting assessments are given in the contingency table below:

(a) From the table, find the probability that a randomly selected applicant has:
(i) poor oral communication skill;
(ii) good written communication skill;
(iii) good oral and good written communication skills;
(iv) good oral or good written communication skill;
(v) good written communication skill given that the applicant has good oral
communication skill.
(b) Are the event “good oral and good written communication skills” mutually
exclusive? Explain.
(c) Are good oral and good written communication skills independent? Explain.

Solution:

9 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli

ARRANGEMENTS
• Counting Rule
Rules for counting the number of possible outcomes.

1) Counting rule 1:
If any one of 𝑘 different mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events can
occur on each of 𝑛 trials, the number of possible outcomes is equal to 𝑘 𝑛

Example:
If you roll a fair die 3 times then there are 63 = 216 possible outcomes.

2) Counting rule 2:
If one operation consists of 𝑛 steps in which the first step can be done in 𝑘1 ways, a
second steps in 𝑘2 ways, …, the n-th step in 𝑘𝑛 ways, then, the number of ways
performing the operation are:
𝑘1 × 𝑘2 × … × 𝑘𝑛 .

Example:
You want to go to a park, eat at a restaurant, and see a movie. There are 3 parks, 4
restaurants, and 6 movie choices. How many different possible combinations are
there?

Solution:

3) Counting rule 3:
The number of ways that 𝑛 items can be arranged in order is:
𝑛! = (𝑛)(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (1)

Example:
You have five books to put on a bookshelf. How many different ways can these books
be placed on the shelf?

Solution:

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• Permutation
- If 𝑟 objects are selected from 𝑛 objects with attention given to the order of
arrangement, then, the selection is called a permutation.
- The number of permutations of 𝑟 objects chosen from 𝑛 objects is:
𝑛
𝑛!
𝑃𝑟 where 𝑛 𝑃𝑟 =
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
𝑛
- Note: 𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛!

Example:
You have five books and are going to put three on a bookshelf. How many different ways
can the books be ordered on the bookshelf?

Solution:

• Combination
- If 𝑟 objects are selected from 𝑛 objects with no attention given to the order of
arrangement, then, the selection is called a combination.
- The number of combinations of 𝑟 objects chosen from 𝑛 objects is:
𝑛
𝑛
𝑃𝑟 𝑛!
𝐶𝑟 where 𝑛 𝐶𝑟 = =
𝑟! 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Example:
In how many ways can a group of 5 boy and 2 girl be made out of a total of 7 boy and 3
girl?

Solution:

11 | Dr. Nor Afifah Hanim Zulkefli