ICT APPLICATION
Modelling applications
Computer modelling is the construction and use of a computer-based mathematical (algorithmic)
representation of a real-life system. A simulation is the creation of a model of a real system in order to
study the behaviour of the system. The model is computer-generated and is based on mathematical
representations. A simulation uses a model to study the behaviour of the system under different scenarios.
It can help to predict how the system will work in unusual circumstances.
Computer modelling
Advantages of using modelling
✓ Using computer models is less expensive than having to build the real thing (e.g. a bridge!) ✓
On many occasions it is safer to use a computer model (some real situations are hazardous, e.g.
chemical processes)
✓ When using computer modelling it is much easier to try out various scenarios in advance ✓ It is
nearly impossible to try out some tasks in real life because of the high risk involved or the
remoteness (e.g. outer space, under the sea, nuclear reactors, crash testing cars etc.) ✓ It is often
faster to use a computer model than do the real thing (some applications would take years before
a result was known, e.g. climate change calculations, population growth etc.)
Disadvantages of using modelling
✓ A model is only as good as the programming or the data entered; the simulation will depend
heavily on these two factors
✓ Although building the real thing can be expensive, sometimes modelling is also a very costly option,
and the two costs need to be compared before deciding whether or not to use modelling l ✓ People’s
reactions to the results of a simulation may not be positive; they may not trust the results it produces
(modelling can never mimic real life and there will always be a difference between the results from
modelling and reality)
✓ Examples of modelling applications include: l personal finances l bridge and building design l flood
water management l traffic management l weather forecasting.
Examples of modelling applications include:
➢ personal finances
➢ bridge and building design
➢ flood water management
➢ traffic management
➢ weather forecasting.
i. Personal finances
This is often done using a spreadsheet allowing ‘what if?’ scenarios. It makes use of the software’s features
to predict the outcome if various values in spreadsheet cells are changed. Refer to Chapter 20 for more
information on the use of spreadsheets in financial modelling.
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ii. Bridge and building design
When an engineer or architect designs a new building or bridge, a 3D computer model is used to test the
integrity of the structure. Very often a scale model is made of the final structure and a combination of
computer modelling and wind tunnel tests are carried out.
A number of scenarios are considered when carrying out the simulation using models and wind tunnels; for
example, when constructing a new bridge:
✓ How much traffic would the bridge be expected to take?
✓ What would be the effect of an accident (e.g. would the bridge integrity be compromised? How
easy is it for the emergency services to reach the accident? and so on)?
✓ What are the effects of very strong winds and typical earthquake activity on the bridge structure? L
✓ Vibration effects – every structure has a natural frequency which could cause it to sway and
collapse if the frequency is reached).
Simulation studies are also carried out when designing new buildings. Again, a number of scenarios are
considered:
✓ What are the effects of hurricane winds, extreme flooding and earthquake activity (e.g. tall
buildings sway in the wind and this effect needs to be studied and minimised to prevent occupants
feeling ill)?
✓ What are the results of disasters such as a fire (can the emergency services get to the fire before
any major structural damage makes the building unstable)?
✓ How to efficiently move people in and out of a large building (e.g. Willis Tower (Chicago, USA)
houses over 400 000 people and it is necessary to simulate that number of people leaving and
entering the building (travelling between all 108 floors) – the most efficient lift usage would need
to be carefully modelled).
Modelling can find out any flaws in the original designs and help to improve the final version before
construction starts. Any changes during or after construction can be very expensive.
iii. Flood water management
As the world’s climate changes, flood water management becomes increasingly important. Modelling
allows risk assessments to be made to identify the sources of flooding, the extent of potential flooding and
any mitigation methods. Inputs to the computer model would include:
✓ cross-section of rivers and sea inlets to identify bottlenecks
✓ bridges, weirs and other ‘obstructions’ in the flood area
✓ factors affecting the flow rate of water (e.g. tides and wind)
✓ boundaries (e.g. consider upstream tributary rivers)
✓ time of day and time of year the simulation is done
✓ results of previous flooding behaviour for comparison.
Flood risk management of cities is particularly important, for example Venice, London, Amsterdam and Sao
Paulo are all part of the global urban flooding network. Modelling allows automated flood defence systems
to be developed.
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The main advantages of having an automated flood defence system are:
➢ sensors could be used offshore to monitor sea height and wave height (and possibly other factors,
such as wind speeds); using sensors would give a much faster response to any deteriorating
conditions in a bay
➢ using a computer system is safer, since using humans to monitor conditions could potentially put
them at risk
➢ data collection is continuous and more accurate than manual measurements (readings can also be
taken more frequently)
➢ because of the faster response to changing conditions, people can be warned well in advance of
any flooding actually taking place
➢ data from the sensors could also be fed into the simulation modelling the flood area; this could
lead to further improvements as more data is gathered, which means the simulation becomes
closer to reality.
iv. Traffic management
Computer modelling can be used in traffic management to see the impact of heavy traffic and accidents on
the flow of traffic. Traffic management modelling is often used when setting up major roadworks to see
how they affect traffic flow and when optimising traffic light times at a junction.
Data to be collected to input into a model used to simulate, for example, the traffic lights at a junction
could be:
• number of vehicles passing the junction in all directions
• time of day also needs to be recorded for each vehicle being counted
• traffic at different times of day and how long it takes to clear
• other factors that affect traffic (e.g. a pedestrian crossing nearby)
• the time it takes the slowest vehicle to pass through the junction
• other factors, such as accidents, filtering and emergency vehicles.
Once the above data has been collected and is fed into the model, different scenarios can be tried out
to optimise traffic light timings and to determine where to place traffic sensors in the road. The final
version will receive live data and a central control box can compare actual traffic data with simulation
data allowing the model to be fine-tuned.
After all the testing is done, the actual traffic light control system is installed. This works as follows:
• road sensors collect data about all vehicles travelling through the junction (in all directions) •
this data is sent to a control box
• the live data is compared to stored data from the simulation and signals are sent to the lights to
change colour as necessary.
v. Weather forecasting
Weather forecasting can also be done by computer modelling. Data such as rainfall, air temperature, wind
speed, wind direction, air pressure and humidity levels are all measured and sent to a central computer.
The central computer runs the simulation and predicts the weather forecast for the next few days (and
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sometimes long-range forecasts are made). After each forecast is made, the actual weather conditions are
compared to the predicted weather allowing improvements to be made to the model. Weather forecast
simulations often show changing conditions in an animated way, for example rain, cloud, sun and wind
changes are superimposed onto a map of the area under consideration.
Sample questions
1. After running a simulation using a computer model, the city of Chicago developed a new flood
management system that automatically comes into play following dangerously high rainfall. a.
Explain why a computer model is used when developing the flood management system.
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c. Explain the benefits of having an automated system in place to prevent flooding.
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2. A complex road junction will be modelled so that traffic lights can be installed to optimise traffic
flow.
a. Explain what data needs to be collected and how it would be used to develop and test the
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b. Explain how the results of the model would be used in the real traffic light control system.
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