MODULE 1B

DEMAND FORECASTING AND MARKET ANALYSIS

LABWORK OBJECTIVES
1) Students understand the relationship between time series patterns and forecasting
methods.
2) Students can calculate the error rate using MSE to get the optimal method.
3) Students understand the stages of forecasting verification using Moving Range Charts.
4) Students can know and understand the actions that can be taken when out of control
conditions occur.
5) Students can make a marketing strategy.
6) Students can develop a marketing plan.
7) Students can calculate sales plan.
8) Students can calculate marketing estimation costs.
THEORETICAL EXPLANATION

CHAPTER I
DEMAND FORECASTING

PRACTICUM OUTLINE

1.1 Production Planning

1. Definition Of Production Planning
Production planning takes into account several aspects of production, from staff daily
tasks to the ability to achieve accurate delivery times for customers. With effective
production planning operations at its core, any form: manufacturing process has the
ability to harness its full potential.
According to Ch. Desi Kusmindari, Production planning is a statement of planned
production levels in aggregate form (rough) to meet the total needs of all products to be
produced using existing resources and is a major point in integration, manufacturing
operations with marketing and business plans. Meanwhile, according to Urwich
production planning is a continuous process of making entrepreneurial decisions
systematically and with the best knowledge of the future by systematically organizing
the effort required to carry out these decisions and measuring the results of these
decisions against expectation through organized and systematic feedback.
2. Production Planning Objectives
The objectives of production planning according to (Assauri, 2011) are:
 1) To achieve a certain level of profit.
2) To dominate a certain market
3) To ensure that the company can work at a certain level of efficiency
4) To seek and maintain existing jobs and employment opportunities at their level and
growing
5) To make the best (efficient) use of existing facilities at the company concerned
1.2 Aggregate Planning
1. Definition of Aggregate Planning
Aggregate planning is concerned with determining the quantity and scheduling of
production for the medium term in the future. Time on the aggregate plan runs normally
from 3 to 18 months. This planning is a by-product of the long-term strategy because
the planning horizon may have a direct impact on business volume requirements. In
summary, aggregate planning is a fundamental method for further determining what
will be needed to complete this transformation process. This includes the ability to
supply labor and facilities, raw materials that are either used directly in the product's
creation or as a byproduct, and finally the inventory level is regulated to maintain
delivery dates while also at the same time minimize costs.
Meanwhile, according to Heizer and Render (2010) aggregate planning is an approach
to determine the quantity and time of production in the medium term (usually 3 to 18
months in the future). Meanwhile, according to Herjanto (2008) aggregate planning is
the heart of intermediate planning which aims to develop an overall production plan
that is feasible and optimal. From the two definitions above, the conclusion is that
aggregate planning is a plan made by forecasting future sales, to increase capacity and
meet customer demand while minimizing the company’s production costs.
2. Aggregate Planning Objectives
Aggregate planning objectives according to Baroto (2002), are:
1. Production strategy planning,
2. For medium-term production,
3. Minimizing details in production planning,
4. Determining resource requirements (labor, materials, facilities, equipment, costs,
etc.),
5. As the initial step in the production activities used for the preparation of the Master
Production Schedule (JIP).
1.3 Forecasting
1. Definition of Forecasting
A forecasting is a prediction of some future event or events. (Montgomery, 2015).
Forecasting, according to Handoko (1999), is an effort to foresee future circumstances
by analyzing previous ones. According to J. Scott Armstrong (2001), is the process of
making predictions about the future using data analysis and historical information.
However, according to Russell and Taylor (2001:497), forecasting estimating product
demand which attempts to meet anticipated consumer needs will decide how much
inventory is required, how many items must be manufactured, and how many resources
suppliers must buy.

2. Purpose of Forecasting
Reducing uncertainty is the goal of forecasting in production activities so that an
estimate is near to the real situation (Ginting, 2007). The following is an explanation of
forecasting covered by Taylor (2004) forecasting can be classified into three categories
based on the future time horizon:
a. Short-Term Forecasting
For forecasts ranging from one to five weeks, short-term forecasting is typically
used. Typically, decisions about scheduling, working overtime, and other long-
term control issues are made using these forecasts.
b. Medium-Term Forecasting
The goal of intermediate or medium-term forecasting is to make twenty-four-
month predictions for an individual. Typically, forecasting is used for budgeting,
production scheduling, and cash flow analysis.
c. Long-Term Forecasting
Planning over a duration of two to 10 years is often done through long-term
forecasting. Resource and product planning both make use of this prediction.
1.4 Types of Forecasts
According to Heizer and render (2004), organizations generally use three types of
forecasts:
1. Economic Forecast
It describes the business cycle by predicting inflation rates, money availability, funds
needed to build housing and other planning indicators.
2. Technology Forecast (Technological Forecast)
 It pays attention to the level of technological progress that can be launched attracting
new products, which require new plant and equipment.
3. Demand Forecast (Demand Forecast)
It predicts the demand for the company's products or services. Forecasts are usually
classified according to the future time horizon they cover.
1.5 Forecasting Methods
1. Quantitative Method
Quantitative methods are forecasting methods based on past quantitative data.
Forecasting results are highly dependent on the method used in forecasting.
Quantitative methods can be used if three conditions exist (Makridakis, 2008):
a. There is information or data about the past.
b. This information or data can be measured by numerical data.
c. It can be assumed that some aspects of the past pattern will continue.
2. Causal Method
Causal Method is a quantitative method to analyze the influence and the relationship
between the independent variable and the dependent variable. According to Ginting
(2007), the causal method is a method used to analyze the pattern of relationships
between variables to be estimated with other variables that influence it.
3. Time Series Method
Time series method is a method that deals with the values of a variable that is set
periodically over time in which the demand forecast is projected to determine the
variation of certain indicators of a particular product over time. It is used to analyze a
data series based on a function of time.
3.1 Regression
Forecasting calculation methods are based on trend lines, so that things can be
projected that will be studied in the future (Sofyan, 2013).
a. Constant
The formula:

Note:
d't = Forecasting value in period t
 dt = Demand in period t
N = Number of period
b. Linear
The Formula:

Note:
d't = Forecasting value in period t
dt = Demand in period t
n = Number of periods
a = intercept
b = Slope
c. Smoothing
1. Moving Average
i. Single Moving Average
A simple moving average (SMA) is an arithmetic moving average calculated
by adding the last closing price and then dividing by the number of time
periods in the average calculation.
The formula:

Note:
dt-1 = Demand Period-t-1
N = Number of time series used
d't = Estimated value in period t
ii. Multiple Moving Average (mxn)
 Apply the moving average technique twice, once to the original data and then
to the resulting single moving average data.
The formula:

Note:
dt-1 = Demand Period-t-1
dt = Estimated value in period t
S't = Single Moving Average
St = Multiple Moving Average
n = Total Single Moving Average Period
m = Total Period Average Multiple Moving Average
M = Deviation between forecast period and current period
N = Total forecast period
iii. Weight Moving Average
Average Weighted Moving Average gives more weight to recent data and
less weight to past data.
The formula:

Note:
W1 = Weight in period t-1
W2 = Weight in period t-2
 Wn = Weight in period tn
n = Number of periods
d't = Forecasting value in period t
2. Exponential Smoothing
i. Exponential Smoothing
This forecasting method is the most widely used of all forecasting techniques.
This method is used when the data pattern is horizontal.
The formula:

Note:
d't-1 = Estimated data in period t-1
dt-1 = Demand data in period t-1
a = Constant
= Estimated at t period
ii. Double Exponential Smoothing
The formula:

Note:
dt = Demand in period t
α = Constant
 S' = Single Exponential Smoothing
S" = Multiple Exponential Smoothing
4. Qualitative Method
A qualitative approach (or assessment) can be useful in formulating short-term
forecasts and can also complement projections based on the use of quantitative
methods.
a) Delphi
This is a group technique in which a panel of experts invited individuals about
their perceptions of future events. Experts do not meet as a group, to reduce the
possibility of reaching consensus due to dominant personality factors. Instead, the
forecasts and accompanying arguments are summarized by outsiders and returned
to the expert along with further questions. This continues until a consensus is
reached.
The Delphi method according to Keeney S. et al (2006) has evolved since it was
first reported in the 1960s. However, many of the fundamental characteristics of
the approach remain from Dalkey and Helmer's original outline. First, the
overarching approach is based on a series of rounds', where a set of experts are
asked their opinions on a particular issue. The questions for each round are based
in part on the findings of the previous one, allowing the study to evolve over time
in response to earlier findings. Second, participants can see the results of previous
rounds including their own responses allowing them to reflect on the views of
others and reposition their own opinions accordingly.
b) Top Down
This is a commonly used method for industrial applications. First, management
makes an estimate of potential sales before developing a sales guata. The last
stage is the construction of the sales forecast. However, when the assumptions
underlying the past cannot be applied, problems arise with this method. Over
time, the correlation between quantity demanded and economic variables may
become weak or change.
The most common approaches in hierarchical forecasting are the top-down
method and the bottom-up methodology Top-down method involves forecasting
the aggregated series, and then disaggregating the forecasts based on the historical
or forecast proportions (Gross and Sohl, 1990).
c) Bottom Up
 Bottom Up is a technique used by analysts in which the market is broken down
into segments and the demand for each segment is calculated separately. Industry
surveys, intention to purchase surveys, and sales force composites were used by
analysts to collect data. Segment aggregates are used to prepare total sales
forecasts.
The bottom-up method involves forecasting each of the disaggregated series at
the lowest level of the hierarchy, and then using aggregation to obtain forecasts
at higher levels of the hierarchy, (Kahn, 1998).
d) Jury Executive Opinion
A forecasting method that uses combined forecasts prepared by numbers from
individual experts. Experts form their own opinions initially from the data
provided and revise their choices according to the opinions of others. Finally,
individual final opinions are combined.
The jury of executive opinion is a marketing research technique used to identify
if an idea or concept is germane to a research study. The basic model seeks the
opinions of a small group of high-level experienced managers within a specific
field. It is a qualitative (opinion-based) tool that incorporates judgmental and
subjective factors into an assessment (Green and Tull, 1978).
1.6 Data Patterns Forecasting
As a result of the analysis of time series, it is possible to see that demand for one product
has been changing over time. The nature of changes in demand from year to year is
formulated to forecast sales in the future. There are four main patterns that affect this
analysis (Ginting, 2007).
1. Trends Pattern
When there is a long-term trend for the data to climb or decline steadily, this data
pattern emerges. Data patterns can be observed by drawing a line from fluctuating
data. The double exponential smoothing method, exponential smoothing, and linear
regression are the forecasting techniques that follow the trend of the data pattern.
2. Seasonal Pattern
Sales trends that recur each period and demand that is impacted by the seasons are
known as seasonal data patterns. Moving averages and weight moving averages are
two forecasting techniques that work well with seasonal data trends.

3. Cycle Pattern
This data pattern is repeated frequently over an arbitrary period of time and is typically
impacted by economic swings. Exponent smoothing techniques, hefty moving
averages, and moving averages are forecasting strategies appropriate for cyclical data
patterns.
 4. Horizontal Pattern
Patterns in data that emerge from data values fluctuating around a fixed average value.
This kind of data pattern also includes a product whose sales have not changed over
time. There is a constant approach that suits the horizontal data pattern. An illustration
of a horizontal data pattern is shown below.

1.7 Forecasting Performance Criteria

1. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
Regardless of whether the forecasted result is higher or lower, mean absolute deviation
is the average absolute inaccuracy for a given period (Ginting, 2007). The Mean
Absolute Deviation (MAD) formula is as follows:

Note :
n = Number of periods n
ei = The difference between the estimated value and the actual data
2. Mean Squared Error (MSE)
The accuracy determined by squaring all the errors for each period and dividing by the
total number of predictions is known as the mean squared error (Ginting, 2007). The
Guaranteed Mean Error (MSE) formula is as follows:

Note :
n = Number of periods n
ei = The difference between the estimated value and the actual data

3. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

The forecasting system's accuracy is statistically measured by the Mean Absolute
Percentage Error, or MAPE. The Average Absolute Percentage of Error (MAPE)
formula is as follows:

Note :
n = Number of periods n
ei = The difference between the estimated value and the actual data
Di = The estimated value in period t
4. Estimation Standard Error (SEE)
The prediction's accuracy is gauged by the standard error of the estimate. Standard Error
of Estimation (SEE) formula:

Note :
Y = Actual Demand
Y' = Forecast Value
n = Number of periods
 f = Degrees of freedom
5. Verification
To ascertain whether the forecasting technique is representative of the data, verification
is a procedure that is employed. The Moving Range Chart can be used for checks
(MRC). Whether or not the distribution is still under control is displayed on the graph.
The prediction function or method does not match when the distribution is uncontrolled,
and the predictive pattern in the data stops being representative. (Ginting, 2007).
Out of control conditions can be checked using the following rules:
1. One Point Rule
If there is one distribution (Y”-Y) outside UCL and LCL.
2. Three-Point Rule
If there are two or more than three points on a line that fall successively into area
A on the same side of the centerline.
3. Five-Point Rule
If there are four or more than five succession points, they fall into area B on the
same side of the centerline.
4. Eight-Point Rule
If there are eight or more consecutive points in area C on the same side of the center
line.
 CHAPTER II
MARKET ANALYSIS

PRACTICUM OUTLINE

2.1. Marketing Strategy

2.1.1. STP (Segmenting, Targeting, and Positioning)
The following is an explanation of segmenting, targeting, and positioning:
1. Segmenting
According to Kotler (2022) Market segmentation divides a market into well-
defined slices. A market segment consists of a group of consumers who share a
similar set of needs and/or profile characteristics. Common types of segmentation
include demographic, geographic, behavioral, and psychographic. We discuss
these types of segmentation in the following sections. In segmentation, there are
two market groups, namely the consumer market (B2C) and the Business Market
(B2B) (Ginting, 2011).
a) Differences in B2B and B2C
1) Business to Business (B2B)
A business transaction between two business entities that can take place
in person or electronically. B2B sales are made by one company to other
businesses with the intention of serving other businesses rather than
consumers. CV, or example, a steel manufacturer might sell large
 quantities of steel to Techno Economy, who then uses that steel to
produce cars.
2) Business to Consumers (B2C)
Companies that provide services or sell products directly to individuals
or groups of people. This kind of business works with customers directly,
not through corporations or other businesses. For instance, Techno
Economy's CV sells goods. When CV. Techno Economy sells its
products to individual customers, it is considered a B2C business.
b) Consumer Market Segmentation (B2C)
1) Geographical
Divides the market into geographic units such as nations, states, regions,
counties, cities, or neighbourhoods. The company can operate in one or
a few areas, or it can operate in all areas while heeding local variations.
In that way, it can tailor marketing programs to the needs and wants of
local customer groups in trading areas and neighbourhoods, and it can
even cater to the needs of individual customers.
Example: Because their location is in the highlands and near tourist
attractions, residents of mountainous areas sell fresh vegetables.
2) Demographics
Divides the market into segments according to factors like race,
nationality, gender, income, employment, education, age, lifecycle
stage, and religion. The most common foundation for customer group
segmentation is based on demographic characteristics. One explanation
for this is the wide variations in consumer needs, wants, and usage levels
across demographic variables. For example, Hybrid cars are marketed
primarily to environmentally conscious, middle- and upper-class
consumers.
3) Psychographics
Divides consumers into groups based on psychological traits, lifestyle,
or values. Psychographic segmentation is important because
demographic, geographic, and behavioral characteristics of consumers
do not always accurately reflect their underlying needs. As an
illustration, iPhones are marketed to those who lead opulent lives.
4) Behavior
 Divides consumers into groups based on their actions. Many marketers
believe variables related to users or their usage—user status, usage rate,
buyer-readiness stage, loyalty status, and occasions—are good starting
points for constructing market segments. Psychographic and behavioral
segmentation differ primarily in that the former concentrates on the
personalities and interests of the customer, while the latter focuses on
how consumers interact and engage with brands and products. The
company uses behavior segmentation based on consumer purchasing
patterns, including frequency of use, brand loyalty, benefits required, at
every opportunity, etc. An iPhone, for instance, is designed for people
who value their privacy and security.
2. Targeting
According to Kotler and Keller (2022), Targeting is the process of identifying
customers for whom the company will optimize its offering. Meanwhile,
according to Tjiptono and Chandra (2012), understanding the target market is a
process of evaluating and selecting one or several market segments that are
considered the most attractive to be served with company-specific marketing
programs. So, based on the understanding according to experts, it can be
concluded that Targeting is a process or technique for grouping market segments
that have the same needs or characteristics. The business-to-business market
(B2B) has many differences between the consumer markets where the target
market of the business market is business customers. According to Kotler (2002)
there are five alternatives to choose target markets are:
a) Single Segment
The company decides to focus on a single segment due to factors like
resource constraints, the absence of competitors in that segment, or the
segment's suitability as a foundation for future segment expansion.
b) Selective Specialization
The business chooses a variety of appealing market niches based on its goals
and available resources. The spread of risk provided by this choice means
that even in the event of a decline in one segment, the company's sales will
not be adversely impacted because revenue from other segments will still be
generated.
c) Product Specialization
 With product specialization, the business focuses on producing a particular
good that will be marketed to different market niches. The primary danger is
that technological advancements could cause the final product to become
obsolete.
d) Market Specialization
When a business engages in market specialization, it concentrates on meeting
the diverse needs of a specific clientele. If the target customer group reduces
their budget for consumption, there is a risk.
e) Full Market Coverage
The business aims to cater to all demographics within different market
niches. Due to its high resource requirements, this strategy is only feasible
for large companies to adopt. The two alternative strategies are as follows:
1) Undifferentiated marketing refers to a company's strategy of promoting
a single type of product to the entire market while ignoring the
distinctions between market segments.
2) With differentiated marketing, the business aims to serve all market
segments and creates unique marketing campaigns for them.
3. Positioning
According to Kotler (2008), positioning is the act of designing a company’s
offering and image to occupy a distinctive place in the minds of the target market.
Meanwhile, according to Tjiptono and Chandra (2012), positioning is the way a
company's product, brand, or organization is perceived relatively compared to a
competing product, brand, or organization by current and potential customers.
Therefore, it can be said that the strategy is to shape consumers perceptions of the
products to give them a unique place in the target market. This step involves
locating one's "position" within the market, having previously decided on the
segmentation plan. To put it another way, positioning is an action or series of
actions taken by the manufacturer to create an image of the business and provide
value in a way that the consumer in each market understands and values what the
business does in comparison to its rivals. The goal is to embed the brand in the
minds of consumers to maximize the potential benefit to the firm. Unlike the value
proposition, which articulates all benefits and costs of the offering, the positioning
zeroes in on the key benefits that will provide consumers with a reason to choose
 the company’s offering (Kotler, 2022). For Example: Indomie in marketing its
products using the tagline “Indomie seleraku”.
2.1.2. Marketing Mix
Kotler and Armstrong (1997) define the marketing mix as a set of tactical marketing
tools that a firm can manage, combining distribution, pricing, product, and
promotion to elicit the desired reaction in the target market. For a product or service,
marketing mix approaches can be applied. What distinguishes the marketing mix
technique for product and service is the marketing mix of the products just 4P is:
a. Product
"Product" is defined as "anything that can be offered in the market to get
attention, demand, or consumption that can fulfill your wishes or needs" by
Sumarni and Soeprihanto (2010). Products can be either a service or a mix of
both (products and services), in addition to always taking the form of goods. An
espresso machine, for instance, is a device that uses a portafilter to brew coffee
with an espresso base.
b. Price
"Price is the amount of money (plus some products, if possible) that is needed
to get many combinations of goods and their services," asserts Sumarni &
Soeprihanto (2010). The pricing of the product will be decided by the firm after
it is created and ready for marketing. For example, an espresso machine costs
Rp1.000.000,00.
c. Place
The distribution channel, or the route via which the product reaches the
customer, is the location in the marketing mix. The distribution channel is
defined as "the channel used by the manufacturer to distribute the products from
producers to consumers or industry users" by Sumarni and Soeprihanto (2010).
For example: Buah Batu is where manufacturing is situated. CV Techno
Economy has a warehouse in Buah Batu to hold its supply of these goods.
d. Promotions
Tiptono (2008) states that one type of marketing communication is promotion.
Marketing communication is a marketing activity that aims to inform, remind,
and/or influence the target market about the company and its goods so that they
will be willing to accept, buy, and be loyal to the firm's offerings. Examples of
 promotions include direct-to-consumer product sales and the creation of adverts
for CV Techno Economy's web services.
Based on the above theories, it can be concluded that Marketing Mix is a component
of marketing that intertwines with each other, intending to meet customer's needs
and satisfaction and achieve the objectives of the company. For service companies,
there are 4 components like the marketing mix product but that distinguishes the
marketing mix on the service is to have three other components to complement it,
among others:
1. Process
All actual procedures, mechanists, and activity streams are used to deliver the
services. The element of this process means something to deliver the service.
The process in service is a major factor in the marketing mix of services such as
service customers will be pleased to feel the service delivery system as part of
the service itself. Example: The process that is done can be in the form of
ordering products online on the Web CV. Techno Economy that can facilitate
consumers to buy our products.
2. People
All actors who play an important role in presenting services so that they can
affect the perception of buyers. Elements of people are corporate employees,
consumers, and other consumers. All employee attitudes and actions, how
employees dress up and employee appearances influence the successful delivery
of services. Example: A patient who has reliable and good communication can
fill the Customer Service position because it will be directly related to the
customer and will affect the response from the customer.
3. Physical Evidence
The real thing that also affects the consumer's decision to buy and use the
products or services offered, Elements included in physical means include the
environment or physical buildings, equipment, fixtures, logos, colors, and other
goods. Examples: Espresso Machine should be given maximum functionality to
attractive colors and logos so that they can influence the consumer's decision to
buy and use Espresso Machine.

2.2. Marketing Plan

 Marketing plan is an operational document that outlines an advertising strategy that an
organization will implement to generate leads and reach the target market. The marketing
plan contains tactical guidance for marketing programs and financial allocations
throughout the planning period (Kotler, 2012).
2.2.1 Sales Plan
This section contains sales targets for each period in the plan. This part will
determine the number of markets will be served by the company, whether they are
smaller or larger than the current production capacity. If the sales target is larger than
the current production capacity, it is necessary to determine an estimate the
additional investment required or continue with the outsourcing process.
2.2.2. Estimated Marketing Cost
According to Mulyadi (2005), marketing costs are the costs incurred to execute
marketing activities, for example advertising costs, promotional costs, etc. In a
narrow meaning, it means the cost of sales, that is the costs incurred to sell products
to the market. While in a broad meaning, marketing costs include all costs that are
incurred until the product is completed and stored in the warehouse until the product
is converted back in cash (Mulyadi, 2005).
2.3. Market Breakdown Analysis
The market is an association of all actual and potential buyers of a product (Kotler &
Armstrong, 2008). Several market criteria must be measured to facilitate the determination
of the target market (Kotler, 2012)
1. A Potential Market is a number of consumers (individuals, companies, organizations)
in a particular market that has an interest in some product.
2. Available market is an association of consumers who have an interest, income, and
access to a particular market offer.
3. Target Market is a part of the available market that will be the object of the market by
a company.
4. Level of competition, including the size of the market share to be captured and the
competitor’s market share.
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