2.

76 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Find (i) k, (ii) mean, (iii) variance, and (iv) median.

È 1 ˘
Í ans.: (i) 2 (ii) 0.06 (iii) 0.04 (iv) 2˙
Î ˚
10. The probability density function of a random variable is given by
f ( x) = 0 x<2
2x + 3
= 2£x£4
18
=0 x>4

Find the mean and variance.

È 83 ˘
Í ans.: (i) 27 , 0.33˙
Î ˚
11. A continuous random variable X has the probability density function
f ( x) = x 3 0 £ x £1
= (2 - x) 3
1£ x £ 2
=0 otherwise

Find P(0.5 £ X £ 1.5) and mean of the distribution.

È 15 1 ˘
Í ans.: 32 , 2 ˙
Î ˚
12. The probability density function of a continuous random variable X is
given by
f(x) = kx (2 – x) 0£x£2
Find k, mean, and variance.
È 3 1˘
Í ans.: 4 , 1, 5 ˙
Î ˚

2.9 bInomIal dIstrIbutIon

Consider n independent trials of a random experiments which results in either success

or failure. Let p be the probability of success remaining constant every time and
q = 1 – p be the probability of failure. The probability of x successes and n – x failures
is given by px qn – x (multiplication theorem of probability). But these x successes and
n – x failures can occur in any of the nCx ways in each of which the probability is same.
Hence, the probability of x successes is nCx px qn – x.
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n, where p + q = 1
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.77

A random variable X is said to follow the binomial distribution if the probability of x

is given by
P( X = x ) = p( x ) = nC x p x q n - x , x = 0, 1, 2,..., n and q = 1 - p
The two constants n and p are called the parameters of the distribution.

2.9.1 examples of binomial distribution

(i) Number of defective bolts in a box containing n bolts.
(ii) Number of post-graduates in a group of n people.
(iii) Number of oil wells yielding natural gas in a group of n wells test drilled.
(iv) Number of machines lying idle in a factory having n machines.

2.9.2 conditions for binomial distribution

The binomial distribution holds under the following conditions:
(i) The number of trials n is finite.
(ii) There are only two possible outcomes, success or failure.
(iii) The trials are independent of each other.
(iv) The probability of success p is constant for each trial.

2.9.3 constants of the binomial distribution

1. mean of the binomial distribution
E ( X ) = Â x p( x )
n
= Â x nC x p x qn- x
x =0

= 0 ◊ nC0 p0 q n + 1 ◊ nC1 p q n -1 + 2 ◊ nC2 p2 q n - 2 +  + n p n

= np [q n -1 + ( n -1)
C1 q n - 2 p + ( n -1)
C2 q n - 3 p2 +  + p n -1 ]
n -1
= np (q + p)
= np [∵ p + q = 1]

2. variance of the binomial distribution

Var( X ) = E ( X 2 ) - m 2
n
= Â x 2 p( x ) - m 2
x =0
n
= Â x 2 nC x p x q n - x - m 2
x =0
n
= Â [x + x( x - 1)] nC x p x qn- x - m 2
x =0
n n
= Â x nC x p x q n - x + Â x ( x - 1) nC x p x qn- x - m 2
x =0 x =0
2.78 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

n
n(n - 1)
= np + Â x ( x - 1) x ( x - 1) ◊ (n-2)C x -2 p x q n- x - m 2
x =0
n
= np + Â n (n - 1) ◊ (n-2)C x -2 p2 p x -2 q n- x - m 2
x =0
n
= np + n(n - 1) p2 Â ( n - 2) C x - 2 p x - 2 q n - x - m 2
x =0

= np + n(n - 1) p ◊ (q + p)n - 2 - m 2
2

= np + n(n - 1) p2 - m 2 [∵ p + q = 1]
= np [1 + (n - 1) p ]- m 2

= np [1 - p + np ] - m 2
= np [q + np] - m 2 [∵ 1 - p = q ]
= np (q + np) - (np) 2

= npq

3. standard deviation of the binomial distribution

SD = Variance = npq

4. mode of the binomial distribution

Mode of the binomial distribution is the value of x at which p(x) has maximum value.
Mode = integral part of (n + 1)p, if (n + 1)p is not an integer
= (n +1) p and (n + 1) p – 1, if (n + 1) p is an integer.

2.9.4 recurrence relation for the binomial distribution

For the binomial distribution,
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x
P( X = x + 1) = nC x +1 p x +1 q n - x -1
P( X = x + 1) n
C x +1 p x +1 q n - x -1
=
P( X = x ) n
Cx p x qn- x
n! x ! (n - x )! p
= ¥ ◊
( x + 1)! (n - x - 1)! n! q
(n - x ) (n - x - 1)! x ! p
= ◊
( x + 1) x ! (n - x - 1)! q
n- x p
= ◊
x +1 q
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.79

n- x p
P( X = x + 1) = ◊ ◊ P( X = x )
x +1 q

2.9.5 binomial Frequency distribution

If n independent trials constitute one experiment and this experiment is repeated N
times, the frequency of x successes is N P(X = x), i.e., N nC x p x q n - x . This is called
expected or theoretical frequency f (x) of a success.
n n È n ˘
 f ( x ) = N  P( X = x ) = N Í∵
ÍÎ
 P( X = x) = 1˙˙
x =0 x =0 x =0 ˚
The expected or theoretical frequencies f (0), f (1), f (2), ..., f (n) of 0, 1, 2, ..., n, successes
are respectively the first, second, third, ..., (n + 1)th term in the expansion of N(q + p)n.
The possible number of successes and their frequencies is called a binomial frequency
distribution. In practice, the expected frequencies differ from observed frequencies
due to chance factor.

example 1
The mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution are 5 and 2.
Determine the distribution.
Solution
m = np = 5
SD = npq = 2
npq = 4
npq 4
=
np 5
4
\ q=
5
4 1
p = 1- q = 1- =
5 5
np = 5
Ê 1ˆ
nÁ ˜ = 5
Ë 5¯
\ n = 25
Hence, the binomial distribution is
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x
x 25 - x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 4ˆ
= 25
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2,..., 25
Ë 5¯ Ë 5 ¯
2.80 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 2
The mean and variance of a binomial variate are 8 and 6. Find
P(X ≥ 2).
Solution
m = np = 8
s 2 = npq = 6
npq 6 3
= =
np 8 4
3
\ q=
4
3 1
p = 1- q = 1- =
4 4
np = 8
Ê 1ˆ
nÁ ˜ = 8
Ë 4¯
\ n = 32
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x
x 32 - x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 3ˆ
= 32
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 32
Ë 4¯ Ë 4¯
P( X ≥ 2) = 1 - P( X < 2)
= 1 - [P( X = 0) + P( X = 1)]
1
= 1 - Â P( X = x )
x =0
1 x 32 - x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 3ˆ
= 1- Â 32
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 4¯ Ë 4¯
x =0
= 0.9988

example 3
Suppose P(X = 0) = 1 – P(X = 1). If E(X) = 3 Var (X), find P(X = 0).
Solution
E ( X ) = 3 Var ( X )
np = 3 npq
1 = 3q
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.81

1
\ q=
3
1 2
p = 1- q = 1- =
3 3
Let P(X = 1) = p
P( X = 0) = 1 - P ( X = 1)
= 1- p
2
= 1-
3
1
=
3

example 4
4
The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 4 and
respectively. Find P(X ≥ 1). 3

Solution
m = np = 4
4
s 2 = npq =
3
4
npq 3 1
= =
np 4 3
1
\ q =
3
1 2
p = 1- q = 1- =
3 3
np = 4
Ê 2ˆ
nÁ ˜ = 4
Ë 3¯
\ n=6

P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x
x 6- x
Ê 2ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= 6C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 6
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
P ( X ≥ 1) = 1 - P ( X < 1)
= 1 - P ( X = 0)
2.82 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

0 6
Ê 2ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= 1 - 6 C0 Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
= 0.9986

example 5
A discrete random variable X has mean 6 and variance 2. If it is assumed
that the distribution is binomial, find the probability that 5 £ X £ 7.
Solution
m = np = 6
s 2 = npq = 2
npq 2 1
= =
np 6 3
1
\ q=
3
1 2
p = 1- q = 1- =
3 3
np = 6
Ê 2ˆ
nÁ ˜ = 6
Ë 3¯
\ n=9
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x
x 9- x
Ê 2ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= 9C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 9
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
P(5 £ X £ 7) = P( X = 5) + P( X = 6) + P( X = 7)
7
= Â P( X = x )
x =5
7 x 9- x
Ê 2ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= Â 9
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
x =5
4672
=
6561
= 0.7121

example 6
With the usual notation, find p for a binomial distribution if n = 6 and
9P(X = 4) = P(X = 2).
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.83

Solution
For the binomial distribution,
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n
n= 6
9 P ( X = 4) = P ( X = 2)
9 6 C 4 p 4 q 2 = 6 C2 p 2 q 4
9 p2 = q 2 = (1 - p)2
9 p2 = 1 - 2 p + p2
8 p2 + 2 p - 1 = 0
-2 ± 4 + 32 -2 ± 6 1 1
p= = =- ,
2¥8 16 2 4
1
Since probability connot be negative, p = .
4

example 7
In a binomial distribution consisting of 5 independent trials, the
probability of 1 and 2 successes are 0.4096 and 0.2048 respectively.
Find the parameter p of the distribution.
Solution
n = 5, P( X = 1) = 0.4096, P( X = 2) = 0.2048
Probability of getting x successes out of 5 trials
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 5C x p x q 5- x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5
P ( X = 1) = 5C1 p q 4 = 0.4096 ...(1)
P( X = 2) = C2 p q = 0.2048
5 2 3
...(2)
Dividing Eq. (2) by Eq. (1),
5
C2 p 2 q 3 0.2048
5 4
=
C1 p q 0.4096
10 p 1
=
5q 2
p 1
=
q 4
4 p = q = 1- p
5p =1
1
p=
5
2.84 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 8
In a binomial distribution, the sum and product of the mean and variance
25 50
are and respectively. Determine the distribution.
3 3
Solution
For the binomial distribution,
25
np + npq =
3
25
np (1 + q ) = ...(1)
3
50
and np (npq ) =
3
50
n2 p2 q = ...(2)
3
Squaring Eq. (1) and then dividing by Eq. (2),
625
n2 p2 (1 + q)2
= 9
n2 p2 q 50
3
1 + 2q + q 2 25
=
q 6
6 (q 2 + 2q + 1) = 25 q
6 q 2 - 13 q + 6 = 0
(2q - 3) (3q - 2) = 0
3 2
q = or q =
2 3
Since q can not be greater than 1,
2
q=
3
2 1
p = 1- q = 1- =
3 3
From Eq. (1),
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2 ˆ 25
nÁ ˜
Ë 3¯ ÁË 1 + ˜¯ =
3 3
\ n = 15
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.85

Hence, the binomial distribution is

x 15 - x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ
P( X = x ) = 15C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ...15
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯

example 9
1
If the probability of a defective bolt is , find the (i) mean, and
8
(ii) variance for the distribution of 640 defective bolts.
Solution
1
p= , n = 640
8
640
m = np = = 80
8
1 7
q = 1- p = 1- =
8 8
Ê 1ˆ Ê 7ˆ
Variance of the distribution = npq = 640 ÁË ˜¯ ÁË ˜¯ = 70
8 8

example 10
In eight throws of a die, 5 or 6 is considered as a success. Find the mean
number of success and the standard deviation.
Solution
Let p be the probability of success.
1 1 1
p= + =
6 6 3
1 2
q = 1- p = 1- =
3 3
n=8
Ê 1ˆ 8
m = np = 8 Á ˜ =
Ë 3¯ 3
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ 4
SD = npq = 8 Á ˜ Á ˜ =
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯ 3
2.86 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 11
4 coins are tossed simultaneously. What is the probability of getting
(i) 2 heads? (ii) at least 2 heads? (iii) at most 2 heads?
Solution
Let p be the probability of getting a head in the toss of a coin.
1 1 1
p = , q = 1- p = 1- = , n = 4
2 2 2
The probability of getting x heads when 4 coins are tossed
x 4- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 4C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
(i) Probability of getting 2 heads when 4 coins are tossed
2 2
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ 3
P( X = 2) = 4C2 Á ˜ Á ˜ =
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯ 8
(ii) Probability of getting at least two heads when 4 coins are tossed
P( X ≥ 2) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4)
4
= Â P( X = x )
x =2
4 x 4- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= Â 4
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
x =2
11
=
16
(iii) Probability getting at most 2 heads when 4 coins are tossed
P( X £ 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2)
2
= Â P( X = x )
x =0
2 x 4- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= Â 4
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
x =0
11
=
16

example 12
Two dice are thrown five times. Find the probability of getting the sum as
7 (i) at least once, (ii) two times, and (iii) P(1 < X < 15).
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.87

Solution
In a single throw of two dice, a sum of 7 can occur in 6 ways out of 6 × 6 = 36 ways.
(1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 5), (5, 2), (3, 4), (4, 3)
Let p be the probability of getting the sum as 7 in a single throw of a pair of dice.
6 1 1 5
p= = , q = 1- p = 1- = , n = 5
36 6 6 6
Probability of getting the sum x times in 5 throws of a pair of dice
x 5- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 5ˆ
P ( X = x ) = n C x p x q n - x = 5C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5
Ë 6¯ Ë 6¯
(i) Probability of getting the sum as 7 at least once in 5 throws of two dice
P( X ≥ 1) = 1 - P( X = 0)
0 5
Ê 1ˆ Ê 5ˆ
= 1 - 5 C0 Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 6¯ Ë 6¯
3125
= 1-
7776
4651
=
7776
(ii) Probability of getting the sum as 7 two times in 5 throws of two dice
2 3
Ê 1ˆ Ê 5ˆ 625
P( X = 2) = 5C2 Á ˜ Á ˜ =
Ë 6¯ Ë 6¯ 3888
(iii) Probability of getting the sum as 7 for P(1 < X < 5) in 5 throws of two dice
P(1 < X < 5) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4)
4
= Â P( X = x )
x =2
4 x 5- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 5ˆ
= Â 5
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 6¯ Ë 6¯
x =2
1525
=
7776

example 13
If 10% of the screws produced by a machine are defective, find the
probability that out of 5 screws chosen at random, (i) none is defective,
(ii) one is defective, and (iii) at most two are defective.
Solution
Let p be the probability of defective screws.
p = 0.1, q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.1 = 0.9, n=5
2.88 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Probability that x screws out of 5 screws are defective

P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 5C x (0.1) x (0.9)5- x , x = 0, 1,2, ..., 5
(i) Probability that none of the screws out of 5 screws is defective
P(X = 0) = 5C0 (0.1)0 (0.9)5 = 0.5905
(ii) Probability that one screw out of 5 screws is defective
P(X = 1) = 5C1 (0.1)1 (0.9)4 = 0.3281
(iii) Probability that at most 2 screws out of 5 screws are defective
P( X £ 2) = P( X = 0) + P ( X = 1) + P( X = 2)
2
= Â P( X = x )
x =0
2
= Â 5
C x (0.1) x (0.9)5- x
x =0
= 0.9914

example 14
A multiple-choice test consists of 8 questions with 3 answers to each
question (of which only one is correct). A student answers each question
by rolling a balanced die and checking the first answer if he gets 1 or 2,
the second answer if he gets 3 or 4, and the third answer if he gets
5 or 6. To get a distinction, the student must secure at least 75% correct
answers. If there is no negative making, what is the probability that the
student secures a distinction? [Summer 2015]
Solution
Let p be the probability of getting an answer to a question correctly. There are three
answers to each question, out of which only one is correct.
1 1 2
p = , q = 1- p = 1- = , n = 8
3 3 3
Probability of getting x correct answers in an 8 questions test
x 8- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ
P ( X = x ) = n C x p x q n - x = 8C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 8
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
Probability of securing a distinction, i.e., getting at least 6 correct answers out of the
8 questions
P( X £ 6) = P ( X = 6) + P ( X = 7) + P ( X = 8)
8
= Â P( X = x )
x =6
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.89

8 x 8- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ
= Â 8
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
x =6
43
=
2187
= 0.0197

example 15
A and B play a game in which their chances of winning are in the ratio
3:2. Find A’s chance of winning at least three games out of the five
games played.
Solution
Let p be the probability that A wins the game.
3 3 3 2
p= = , q = 1- p = 1- = , n=5
3+2 5 5 5
Probability that A wins x games out of 5 games
x 5- x
Ê 3ˆ Ê 2ˆ
P ( X = x ) = n C x p x q n - x = 5C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5
Ë 5¯ Ë 5¯
Probability that A wins at least 3 games
P( X ≥ 3) = P( X = 3) + P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
5
= Â P( X = x )
x =3
5 x 5- x
Ê 3ˆ Ê 2ˆ
= Â 5
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 5¯ Ë 5¯
x =3
2133
=
3125
= 0.6826

example 16
It has been claimed that in 60% of all solar heat installations the
utility bill is reduced by at least one-third. Accordingly, what are the
probabilities that the utility bill will be reduced by at least one third in
(i) four of five installations? (ii) at least four of five installations?
Solution
Let p be the probability that the utility bill is reduced by one-third in the solar heat
installations.
p = 60% = 0.6, q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4, n=5
2.90 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Probability that the utility bill is reduced by one-third in x installations out of 5

installations
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 5C x (0.6) x (0.4)5- x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5
Probability that the utility bill is reduced by one-third in 4 of 5 installations
162
P( X = 5) = 5C4 (0.6)4 (0.4)1 =
625
Probability that the utility bill is reduced by one-third in at least 4 of 5 installations
P( X ≥ 4) = P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
5
= Â P( X = x )
x=4
5
= Â 5
C x (0.6) x (0.4)5- x
x=4
1053
=
3125
= 0.337

example 17
The incidence of an occupational disease in an industry is such that the
workers have a 20% chance of suffering from it. What is the probability
that out of 6 workers chosen at random, four or more will suffer from
the disease?
Solution
Let p be the probability of a worker suffering from the disease.
p = 0.2, q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.2 = 0.8, n=6
Probability that x workers will suffer from the disease
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 6C x (0.2) x (0.8)6 - x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 6
Probability that 4 or more workers will suffer from the disease
P( X ≥ 4) = P( X = 4) + P( X = 5) + P( X = 6)
6
= Â P( X = x )
x=4
6
= Â 6
C x (0.2) x (0.8)6 - x
x=4
53
=
3125
= 0.017
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.91

example 18
The probability that a man aged 60 will live up to 70 is 0.65. What is
the probability that out of 10 such men now at 60 at least 7 will live up
to 70?
Solution
Let p be the probability that a man will live up to 70.
p = 0.65, q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.65 = 0.35, n = 10
Probability that x men out of 10 will live up to 70
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 10C x (0.65) x (0.35)10 - x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 10
Probability that at least 7 men out of 10 will live up to 70
P( X ≥ 7) = P( X = 7) + P( X = 8) + P( X = 9) + P( X = 10)
10
= Â P( X = x )
x =7
10
= Â 10
C x (0.65) x (0.35)10 - x
x =7
= 0.5138

example 19
In a multiple-choice examination, there are 20 questions. Each question
has 4 alternative answers following it and the student must select one
correct answer. 4 marks are given for a correct answer and 1 mark is
deducted for a wrong answer. A student must secure at least 50% of the
maximum possible marks to pass the examination. Suppose a student
has not studied at all, so that he answers the questions by guessing only.
What is the probability that he will pass the examination?
Solution
Since there are 20 questions and each carries with 4 marks, the maximum marks are
80. If the student solves 12 questions correctly and 8 questions wrongly, he gets 48 – 8
= 40 marks required for passing. If he gets more than 12 correct answers, he gets more
than 40 marks. Let p be the probability of getting a correct answer.
1 1 3
p = , q = 1 - p = 1 - = , n = 20
4 4 4
Probability of getting x correct answers out of 20 answers
x 20 - x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 3ˆ
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 20
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 20
Ë 4¯ Ë 4¯
2.92 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Probability of passing the examination, i.e., probability of getting at least 12 correct

answers out of 20 answers
20
P( X ≥ 12) = Â P( X = x )
x =12
20 x 20 - x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 3ˆ
= Â 20
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 4¯ Ë 4¯
x =12

= 9.3539 ¥ 10 -4

example 20
1
The probability of a man hitting a target is . (i) If he fires 5 times, what
3
is the probability of his hitting the target at least twice? (ii) How many
times must he fire so that the probability of his hitting the target at least
once is more than 90%?
Solution
Let p be probability of hitting a target.
1 1 2
p = , q = 1- p = 1- = , n = 5
3 3 3
Probability of hitting the target x times out of 5 times
x 5- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ
P ( X = x ) = n C x p x q n - x = 5C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2,..., 5
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
(i) Probability of hitting the target at least twice out of 5 times
P( X ≥ 2) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
5
= Â P( X = x )
x =2
5 x 5- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ
= Â 5
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯
x =2
131
=
243
= 0.5391
(ii) Probability of hitting the target at least once out of 5 times
P( X ≥ 1) > 0.9
1 - P( X = 0) > 0.9
0 n
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ
1 - nC0 Á ˜ Á ˜ > 0.9
Ë 3¯ Ë 3 ¯
n
Ê 2ˆ
1 - Á ˜ > 0.9
Ë 3¯
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.93

6
Ê 2ˆ
For n = 6, 1 - Á ˜ = 0.9122
Ë 3¯
Hence, the man must fire 6 times so that the probability of hitting the target at lest once
is more than 90%.

example 21
In sampling a large number of parts manufactured by a machine, the
mean number of defectives in a sample of 20 is 2. Out of 1000 such
samples, how many would be expected to contain exactly two defective
parts? [Summer 2015]
Solution
Let p be the probability of parts being defective.
m = np = 2, n = 20, N = 1000
np = 2
20( p) = 2
\ p = 0.1
q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9
Probability that the samples contain x defective parts out of 20 parts
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 20
C x (0.1) x (0.9)20 - x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 20
Probability that the samples contain exactly 2 defective parts
P( X = 2) = 20
C2 (0.1)2 (0.9)18 = 0.2852
Expected number of samples to contain exactly 2 defective parts = N P(X = 2)
= 1000 (0.2852)
= 285.2
ª 285

example 22
An irregular 6-faced die is thrown such that the probability that it gives
3 even numbers in 5 throws is twice the probability that it gives 2 even
numbers in 5 throws. How many sets of exactly 5 trials can be expected
to give no even number out of 2500 sets?
Solution
Let p be the probability of getting an even number in a throw of a die.
n = 5, N = 2500
2.94 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Probability of getting x even numbers in 5 throws of a die

P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 5C x p x q 5- x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5
P(X = 3) = 2 P(X = 2)
5
C3 p3 q 2 = 2 (5 C2 p2 q3 )
10 p3 q 2 = 20 p2 q 3
p = 2q
p = 2(1 - p) = 2 - 2 p
2
\ p=
3
2 1
q = 1- p = 1- =
3 3
Probability of getting no even number in 5 throws of a die
0 5
Ê 2ˆ Ê 1ˆ 1
P( X = 0) = 5C0 Á ˜ Á ˜ =
Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯ 243
Expected number of sets = NP (X = 0)
2500
=
243

example 23
Out of 800 families with 5 children each, how many would you expect
to have (i) 3 boys? (ii) 5 girls? (iii) either 2 or 3 boys? (iv) at least one
boy? Assume equal probabilities for boys and girls.
Solution
Let p be the probability of having a boy in each family.
1 1 1 1
p = , q = 1 - = 1 - = , n = 5, N = 800
2 2 2 2
Probability of having x boys out of 5 children in each family
x 5- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
P ( X = x ) = n C x p x q n - x = 5C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
(i) Probability of having 3 boys out of 5 children in each family
3 2
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ 5
P( X = 3) = 5C3 Á ˜ Á ˜ =
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯ 16
Expected number of families having 3 boys out of 5 children = N P(X = 3)
Ê 5ˆ
= 800 Á ˜
Ë 16 ¯
= 250
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.95

(ii) Probability of having 5 girls, i.e., no boys out of 5 children in each family
0 5
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ 1
P( X = 0) = 5C0 Á ˜ Á ˜ =
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯ 32
Expected number of families 5 girls out of 5 children = NP(X = 0)
Ê 1ˆ
= 800 Á ˜
Ë 32 ¯
= 25
(iii) Probability of having either 2 or 3 boys out of 5 children in each family
3
P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) = Â P( X = x )
x =2
3 x 5- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= Â 5
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
x =2
5
=
8
Expected number of families having either 2 of 3 boys out of 5 children
= N [ P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)]
Ê 5ˆ
= 800 Á ˜
Ë 8¯
= 500
(iv) Probability of having at least one boy out of 5 children in each family
P( X ≥ 1) = P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
5
= Â P( X = x )
x =1
5 x 5- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
= Â 5C x Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
x =1
31
=
32
Expected number of families having at least-one boy out of 5 children
= NP( X ≥ 1)
Ê 31 ˆ
= 800 Á ˜
Ë 32 ¯
= 775

example 24
If hens of a certain breed lay eggs on 5 days a week on an average, find
how many days during a season of 100 days a will poultry keeper with
5 hens of this breed expect to receive at least 4 eggs.
2.96 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Solution
Let p be the probability of hen laying an egg on any day of a week.
5 5 2
p = , q = 1 - p = 1 - = , n = 5, N = 100
7 7 7
Probability of x hens laying eggs on any day of a week
x 5- x
Ê 5ˆ Ê 2ˆ
P ( X = x ) = n C x p x q n - x = 5C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5
Ë 7¯ Ë 7¯
Probability of receiving at least 4 eggs on any day of a week
P( X ≥ 4) = P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
5
= Â P( X = x )
x=4
5 x 5- x
Ê 5ˆ Ê 2ˆ
= Â 5
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜
Ë 7¯ Ë 7¯
x=4
= 0.5578
Expected number of days during a season of 100 days, a poultry keeper with 5 hens of
this breed will receive at least 4 eggs = N P( X ≥ 4)
= 100 (0.5578)
= 55.78
ª 56

example 25
Seven unbiased coins are tossed 128 times and the number of heads
obtained is noted as given below:
No. of heads 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Frequency 7 6 19 35 30 23 7 1
Fit a binomial distribution to the data.
Solution
Since the coin is unbiased,
1 1
p = , q = , n = 7, N = 128
2 2
For binomial distribution,
x 7- x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
P ( X = x ) = n C x p x q n - x = 7C x Á ˜ Á ˜ , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 7
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.97

Theoretical or expected frequency f (x) = N P(X = x)

x 7- x 7
Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ Ê 1ˆ
f ( x ) = 128 7C x Á ˜ Á ˜ = 128 7C x Á ˜
Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯ Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (0) = 128 7C0 Á ˜ = 1
Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (1) = 128 7C1 Á ˜ = 7
Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (2) = 128 7C2 Á ˜ = 21
Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (3) = 128 7C3 Á ˜ = 35
Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (4) = 128 7C4 Á ˜ = 35
Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (5) = 128 7C5 Á ˜ = 21
Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (6) = 128 7C6 Á ˜ = 7
Ë 2¯
7
Ê 1ˆ
f (7) = 128 7C7 Á ˜ = 1
Ë 2¯
Binomial distribution
No. of heads x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Expected binomial frequency f (x) 1 7 21 35 35 21 7 1

example 26
Fit a binomial distribution to the following data:
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
f 2 14 20 34 22 8

Solution

Mean =
 fx
Âf
2(0) + 14(1) + 20(2) + 34(3) + 22(4) + 8(5)
=
2 + 14 + 20 + 34 + 22 + 8
2.98 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

284
=
100
= 2.84
For binomial distribution,
n=5
m = np = 2.84
5 p = 2.84
\ p = 0.568
q = 1 - p = 1 - 0.568 = 0.432

P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x = 5C x (0.568) x (0.432)5- x , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., 5

N = Â f = 100

Theoretical or expected frequency f (x) = N P(X = x)

f ( x ) = 100 5C x (0.568) x (0.432)5- x

f (0) = 100 5C0 (0.568)0 (0.432)5 = 1.505 ª 1.5

f (1) = 100 5C1 (0.568)1 (0.432)4 = 9.89 ª 10
f (2) = 100 5C2 (0.568)2 (0.432)3 = 26.01 ª 26
f (3) = 100 5C2 (0.568)3 (0.432)2 = 34.2 ª 34
f (4) = 100 5C2 (0.568)4 (0.432)1 = 22.48 ª 22
f (5) = 100 5C2 (0.568)5 (0.432)0 = 5.91 ª 6
Binomial Distribution
x 0 1 2 3 4 5

Expected binomial frquency 1.5 10 26 34 22 6

exercIse 2.5
1. Find the fallacy if any in the following statements:
(a) The mean of a binomial distribution is 6 and SD is 4.
(b) The mean of a binomial distribution is 9 and its SD is 4.
È 8 ˘
Í ans.: (a) False, q = 3 is impossible ˙
Í ˙
Í 19
(b) False, q = is impossible ˙
ÍÎ 9 ˙˚
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.99

2. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 3 and 1.2

respectively. Find n, p, and P(X < 4).
È 2068 ˘
Í ans.: 5, 0.6, 3125 ˙
Î ˚

10
3. Find the binomial distribution if the mean is 5 and the variance is .
Find P(X = 2). 3

È x
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2 ˆ
25 - x
˘
Í ans.: P( X = x) = 25
Cx Á ˜ Á ˜ , 0.003˙
ÍÎ Ë 3¯ Ë 3¯ ˙˚

4. In a binomial distribution, the mean and variance are 4 and 3 respectively.

Find P(X ≥ 1).
ÈÎans.: 0.9899˘˚

5. The odds in favour of X winning a game against Y are 4:3. Find the
probability of Y winning 3 games out of 7 played.
ÈÎans.: 0.0929˘˚

6. On an average, 3 out of 10 students fail in an examination. What is the

probability that out of 10 students that appear for the examination
none will fail?
ÎÈans.: 0.0282˚˘
7. If on the average rain falls on 10 days in every thirty, find the probability
(i) that the first three days of a week will be fine and remaining wet,
and (ii) that rain will fall on just three days of a week.
È 8 280 ˘
Í ans.: (i) 2187 (ii) 2187 ˙
Î ˚
8. Two unbiased dice are thrown three times. Find the probability that the
sum nine would be obtained (i) once, and (ii) twice.
ÈÎans.: (i) 0.26 (ii) 0.03˘˚

9. For special security in a certain protected area, it was decided to put

three lightbulbs on each pole. If each bulb has probability p of burning
out in the first 100 hours of service, calculate the probability that at
least one of them is still good after 100 hours. If p = 0.3, how many
bulbs would be needed on each pole to ensure with 99% safety that at
least one is good after 100 hours?
ÈÎ ans.: (i) 1 - p 3 (ii) 4 ˘˚
2.100 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

10. It is known from past records that 80% of the students in a school do
their homework. Find the probability that during a random check of
10 students, (i) all have done their homework, (ii) at the most two
have not done their homework, and (iii) at least one has not done the
homework.
ÈÎans.: (i) 0.1074 (ii) 0.6778 (iii) 0.8926 ˘˚

11. An insurance salesman sells policies to 5 men, all of identical age and
good health. According to the actuarial tables, the probability that a
2
man of this particular age will be alive 30 years hence is . Find the
3
probability that 30 years hence (i) at least 1 man will be alive, (ii) at
least 3 men will be alive, and (iii) all 5 men will be alive.
È 242 64 32 ˘
Í ans.: (i) 243 (ii) 81 (iii) 243 ˙
Î ˚
12. A company has appointed 10 new secretaries out of which 7 are trained.
If a particular executive is to get three secretaries selected at random,
what is the chance that at least one of them will be untrained?
ÎÈans.: 0.7083˚˘
13. The overall pass rate in a university examination is 70%. Four candidates
take up such an examination. What is the probability that (i) at least
one of them will pass? (ii) all of them will pass the examination?
ÈÎans.: (i) 0.9919 (ii) 0.7599˘˚

14. The normal rate of infection of a certain disease in animals is known

to be 25%. In an experiment with a new vaccine, it was observed that
none of the animals caught the infection. Calculate the probability of
the observed result.
È 729 ˘
Í ans.: 4096 ˙
Î ˚
15. Suppose that weather records show that on the average, 5 out of 31
days in October are rainy days. Assuming a binomial distribution with
each day of October as an independent trial, find the probability that
the next October will have at most three rainy days.
ÈÎans.: 0.2403˘˚

16. Assuming that half the population of a village is female and assuming
that 100 samples each of 10 individuals are taken, how many samples
would you expect to have 3 or less females?
ÈÎans.: 17 ˘˚
 2.9 Binomial Distribution 2.101

17. Assuming that half the population of a town is vegetarian so that the
1
chance of an individual being vegetarian is , and assuming that 100
2
investigators can take a sample of 10 individuals to see whether they
are vegetarians, how many investigators would you expect to report
that three people or less in the sample were vegetarians?
ÈÎans.: 17 ˘˚

18. The probability of failure in a physics practical examination is 20%.

If 25 batches of 6 students each take the examination, in how many
batches of 4 or more students would pass?
ÈÎans.: 23˘˚

19. A lot contains 1% defective items. What should be the number of items
in a lot so that the probability of finding at least one defective item in
it is at least 0.95?
ÎÈans.: 299˚˘
20. The probability that a bomb will hit the target is 0.2. Two bombs
are required to destroy the target. If six bombs are used, find the
probability that the target will be destroyed.
ÈÎans.: 0.3447 ˘˚

21. Out of 1000 families with 4 children each, how many would you expect
to have (i) 2 boys and 2 girls? (ii) at least one boy? (iii) no girl? (iv) at
most 2 girls?
ÈÎans.: (i) 375 (ii) 938 (iii) 63 (iv) 69˘˚

22. In a sampling of a large number of parts produced by a machine, the

mean number of defectives in a sample of 20 is 2. Out of 1000 such
samples, how many samples would you expect to contain at least 3
defectives?
ÈÎans.: 323˘˚

23. Five pair coins are tossed 3200 times, find the frequency distribution
of the number of heads obtained. Also, find the mean and SD.
ÈÎans.: (i) 100, 500, 1000, 1000, 500, 100 (ii) 1600 (iii) 28.28˘˚

24. Fit a binomial distribution to the following data:

x 0 1 2 3 4

f 12 66 109 59 10

ÎÈans.: 17, 67, 96, 61, 15˚˘

2.102 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

2.10 PoIsson dIstrIbutIon

Poisson distribution is a limiting case of binomial distribution under the following

conditions:
(i) The number of trials should be infinitely large, i.e., n Æ •.
(ii) The probability of successes p for each trial should be very small, i.e., p Æ 0.
(iii) np = l should be finite where l is a constant.
The binomial distribution is
P( X = x ) = nC x p x q n - x
x
Ê pˆ
= nC x Á ˜ q n
Ë q¯
x
Ê p ˆ
= nC x Á (1 - p)n
Ë 1 - p ˜¯
l
Putting p = ,
n
x
Ê l ˆ
n
n(n - 1)(n - 2) (n - x + 1) Á n ˜ Ê l ˆ
P( X = x ) = -
l ˜ ÁË ˜
Á 1
x! Á 1- ˜ x¯
Ë n¯
n
n(n - 1)(n - 2) (n - x + 1) l x 1 Ê lˆ
= ÁË 1 - ˜¯
x! n Ê lˆx
x x
ÁË 1 - ˜¯
n
n- x
n(n - 1)(n - 2) (n - x + 1) l x Ê l ˆ
= Á 1 - ˜¯
x! nx Ë n
Ê 1 ˆ Ê 2 ˆ È Ê x - 1ˆ ˘
1 Á 1 - ˜ Á 1 - ˜  Í1 - Á
Ë n ¯ Ë n ¯ Î Ë n ˜¯ ˙˚ x Ê l ˆ n - x
= l Á1 - ˜
x! Ë n¯
n- x
Ê lˆ
Since lim Á 1 - ˜ = e- l
n Æ• Ë n¯
Ê 1ˆ Ê 2ˆ
and lim Á 1 - ˜ = lim Á 1 - ˜ = 1
n Æ• Ë n ¯ nÆ• Ë n ¯
Taking the limits of both the sides as n Æ •,
l x e- l
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., •
x!
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.103

A random variable X is said to follow poisson distribution if the probability of x is

given by
e- l l x
P( X = x ) = p( x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
where l is called the parameter of the distribution.

2.10.1 examples of Poisson distribution

(i) Number of defective bulbs produced by a reputed company
(ii) Number of telephone calls per minute at a switchboard
(iii) Number of cars passing a certain point in one minute
(iv) Number of printing mistakes per page in a large text
(v) Number of persons born blind per year in a large city

2.10.2 conditions of Poisson distribution

The Poisson distribution holds under the following conditions:
(i) The random variable X should be discrete.
(ii) The numbers of trials n is very large.
(iii) The probability of success p is very small (very close to zero).
(iv) l = np is finite.
(v) The occurrences are rare.

2.10.3 constants of the Poisson distribution

1. mean of the Poisson distribution
•
E( X ) = Â x p( x)
x =0
•
e- l l x
= Âx x!
x =0
•
x e - l l l x -1
= Â x!
x =0
•
x l x -1
= e- l ◊ l  x!
x =1
•
l x -1 È x 1 ˘
= l e- l  ( x - 1)! Í∵ =
x ! ( x - 1)! ˙˚
x =1 Î
Ê l2 ˆ
= l e- l Á 1 + l + + ˜
Ë 2! ¯
= l e- l el
=l
2.104 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

2. variance of the Poisson distribution

Var ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) - m 2
•
= Â x 2 p( x ) - m 2
x =0
•
e- l l x
= Â x2
x!
- l2
x =0
• -l
e lx
= Â x [( x - 1) + x ] x!
- l2
x =0
•
x( x - 1) e - l l x • x e - l l x
= Â x!
+Â
x!
- l2
x =0 x =0
•
x( x - 1) e - l l x - 2 l 2
= Â x ( x - 1)( x - 2)  1
+ l - l2
x =0
•
l x -2
= e- l l 2 Â + l - l2
x =2 ( x - 2)!
Ê l2 ˆ
= e- l l 2 Á 1 + l + + ˜ + l - l 2
Ë 2! ¯
= -el e- l l 2 + l - l 2
= l2 + l - l2
=l

3. standard deviation of the Poisson distribution

SD = Variance = l

4. mode of the Poisson distribution

Mode is the value of x for which the probability p(x) is maximum.
p( x ) ≥ p( x + 1) and p( x ) ≥ p( x - 1)
When p(x) ≥ p(x + 1),
e - l l x e - l l x +1
≥
x! ( x + 1)!
l
1≥
x +1
( x + 1) ≥ l
x ≥ l -1 ...(2.1)
Similarly, for p(x) ≥ p(x – 1),
x£l ...(2.2)
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.105

Combining Eqs (2.1) and (2.2),

l–1£x£l
Hence, the mode of the Poisson distribution lies between l – 1 and l.
Case I If l is an integer then l – 1 is also an integer. The distribution is bimodal and
the two modes are l – 1 and l.

Case II If l is not an integer, the distribution is unimodal and the mode of the Poisson
distribution is an integral part of l. The mode is the integer between l – 1 and l.

2.10.4 recurrence relation for the Poisson distribution

For the Poisson distribution,
e- l l x
p( x ) =
x!
e - l l x +1
p( x + 1) =
( x + 1)!
p( x + 1) e - l l x +1 x!
= ◊
p( x ) ( x + 1)! e - l l x
l
=
x +1
l
p( x + 1) = p( x )
x +1

example 1
Find out the fallacy if any in the statement. “The mean of a Poisson
distribution is 2 and the variance is 3.”
Solution
In a Poisson distribution, the mean and variance are same. Hence, the above statement
is false.

example 2
If the mean of the Poisson distribution is 4, find
P(l - 2s < X < l + 2s ).
Solution
For a Poisson distribution,
Variance = l
2.106 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Mean = l = 4, s =2
-l
l
e e -4 4 x
x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
P(l - 2s < X < l + 2s ) = P(0 < X < 8)
7
= Â P( X = x )
x =1
7
e -4 4 x
=Â
x =1 x !
= 0.9306

example 3
If the mean of a Poisson variable is 1.8, find (i) P(X > 1), (ii) P(X = 5),
and (iii) P(0 < X < 5).
Solution
For a Poisson distribution,
l = 1.8
e - l l x e -1.8 1.8 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
(i) P( X > 1) = 1 - P( X £ 1)
= 1 - [P( X = 0) + P( X = 1)]
1
= 1 - Â P( X = x )
x =0
1
e -1.8 1.8 x
= 1- Â
x =0 x!
= 0.5372
e -1.8 1.85
(ii) P( X = 5) = = 0.026
5!
(iii) P(0 < X < 5) = P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4)
4
= Â P( X = x )
x =1
4
e -1.8 1.8 x
=Â
x =1 x!
= 0.7983
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.107

example 4
If a random variable has a Poisson distribution such that P(X = 1) =
P(X = 2), find (i) the mean of the distribution, (ii) P(X = 4), (iii) P(X ≥ 1),
and (iv) P(1 < X < 4).
Solution
For a Poisson distribution,

e- l l x
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1,2,...
x!
(i) P( X = 1) = P( X = 2)
e- l l1 e- l l 2
=
1! 2!
l 2 = 2l
l 2 - 2l = 0
l (l - 2) = 0
l = 0 or l = 2

Since l π 0, l=2
e - l l x e -2 2 x
Hence, P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
-2 4
(ii) P( X = 4) = e 2 = 0.9022
4!
(iii) P( X ≥ 1) = 1 - P( X < 1)
= 1 - P( X = 0)
e -2 20
= 1-
0!
= 0.8647
(iv) P(1 < X < 4) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)
3
= Â P( X = x )
x =2
3
e -2 2 x
= Â x!
x =2
= 0.4511
2.108 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 5
If X is a Poisson variate such that P(X = 0) = P(X = 1), find P(X = 0)
and using recurrence relation formula, find the probabilities at x = 1, 2,
3, 4, and 5.
Solution
For a Poisson distribution,
e- l l x
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1,2, ...
x!
P( X = 0) = P( X = 1)
e- l l 0 e- l l1
=
0! 1!
l=1

e - l 1x
Hence, P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
e- l l 0
(i) P( X = 0) = = 0.3678
0!
(ii) By recurrence relation,
l
p( x + 1) = p( x )
x +1
1
p( x + 1) = p( x ) [∵ l = 1]
x +1
p(1) = p(0) = 0.3678
1 1
p(2) = p(1) = (0.3678) = 0.1839
2 2
1 1
p(3) = p(2) = (0.1839) = 0.0613
3 3
1 1
p(4) = p(3) = (0.0613) = 0.015325
4 4
1 1
p(5) = p(4) = (0.015325) = 0.003065
5 5

example 6
If the variance of a Poisson variate is 3, find the probability that (i) X = 0,
(ii) 0 < X £ 3, and (iii) 1 £ X < 4.
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.109

Solution
For a Poisson distribution,
Variance = Mean = l = 3
e - l l x e -3 3 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1,2, ...
x! x!
e -3 30
(i) P ( X = 0) = = 0.0498
0!
(ii) P (0 < X £ 3) = P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)
3
= Â P( X = x )
x =1
3
e -3 3 x
=Â
x =1 x !
= 0.5974
(iii) P(1 £ X < 4) = P ( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)
3
= Â P( X = x )
x =1
3
e -3 3 x
=Â
x =1 x !
= 0.5974

example 7
3
If a Poisson distribution is such that P( X = 1) = P( X = 3), find
2
(i) P(X ≥ 1), (ii) P(X £ 3), and (iii) P(2 £ X £ 5).
Solution
For a Poisson distribution,
e- l l x
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2,...
x!
3
P( X = 1) = P( X = 3)
2
3 e- l l1 e- l l 3
=
2 1! 3!
3 l3
l=
2 6
l 3 - 9l = 0
2.110 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

l (l 2 - 9) = 0
l = 0, 3, - 3
Since l > 0, l=3
e -3 3 x
Hence, P( x = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
(i) P( X ≥ 1) = 1 - P( X < 1)
= 1 - P ( X = 0)
e -3 30
= 1-
0!
= 0.9502
(ii) P ( X £ 3) = P ( X = 0) + P ( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)
3
= Â P( X = x )
x =0
3
e -3 3 x
= Â
x =0 x !
= 0.6472
(iii) P(2 £ X £ 5) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
5
= Â P( X = x )
x =2
5
e-3 3 x
= Â x!
x =2
= 0.7169

example 8
If X is a Poisson variate such that
P( X = 2) = 9 P( X = 4) + 90 P( X = 6)
Find (i) the mean of X, (ii) the variance of X, (iii) P(X < 2), (iv) P(X > 4),
and (v) P(X ≥ 1).
Solution
For a Poisson distribution,
e- l l x
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
P( X = 2) = 9 P ( X = 4) + 90 P ( X = 6)
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.111

e- l l 2 e- l l 4 e- l l 6
=9 + 90
2! 4! 6!
Ê 9l 2
90 l 4 ˆ
= e- l l 2 Á + ˜
Ë 4! 6! ¯
1 9l 2 90 l 4
= +
2 4! 6!
1 3l 2 l 4
= +
2 8 8
l 4 + 3l 2 - 4 = 0
3 ± 9 + 16 -3 ± 5
l2 = - = = 1, - 4
2 2
Since l > 0, l2 = 1
(i) Mean = l = 1
(ii) Variance = l = 1
e -11x
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
(iii) P( X < 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1)
1
e -11x
= Â
x =0 x !
= 0.7358
(iv) P( X > 4) = 1 - P( X £ 4)
= 1 - [P( X = 0) + ( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4)]
4
e -11x
= 1- Â
x =0 x !
= 0.00366
(v) P( X ≥ 1) = 1 - P( X = 0)
e -110
= 1-
1!
= 0.6321

example 9
3
If a Poisson distribution is such that P( X = 1) = P( X = 3), find
2
(i) P(X ≥ 1), (ii) P(X £ 3), and (iii) P(2 £ X £ 5).
2.112 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Solution
3
P( X = 1) = P( X = 3)
2
3 e- l l1 e- l l 3
=
2 1! 3!
3 l2
=
2 6
l2 = 9
l = ±3
Since l > 0, l=3
e -3 3 x
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
(i) P( X ≥ 1) = 1 - P( X < 1)
= 1 - P( X = 0)
e -3 30
= 1-
0!
= 0.9502
(ii) P( X £ 3) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)
3
= Â P( X = x )
x =0
3
e -3 3 x
= Â
x =0 x !
= 0.6472
(iii) P(2 £ X £ 5) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4) + P( X = 5)
5
= Â P( X = x )
x =2
5
e -3 3 x
= Â
x =2 x !
= 0.7169

example 10
If X is a Poisson variate such that
1
3 P( X = 4) = P ( X = 2) + P ( X = 0)
2
Find (i) the mean of X, and (ii) P(X £ 2).
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.113

Solution
(i) For a Poisson distribution,
e- l l x
P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1,2, ...
x!
1
3 P ( X = 4) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 0)
2
-l 4
e l 1 e- l l 2 e- l l 0
3 = +
4! 2 2! 0!
l 4 - 2l 2 - 8 = 0
(l 2 - 4) (l 2 + 2) = 0
l = ±2 (∵ l is real)
l=2 (∵ l > 0)
Mean = l = 2
e -2 2 x
Hence, P( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!
(ii) P( X £ 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2)
2
= Â P( X = x )
x =0
2
e -2 2 x
= Â x!
x =0
= 0.6766

example 11
A manufacturer of cotterpins knows that 5% of his products are defective.
If he sells cotterpins in boxes of 100 and guarantees that not more than
10 pins will be defective, what is the approximate probability that a box
will fail to meet the guaranteed quality?
Solution
Let p be the probability of a pin being defective.
p = 5% = 0.05, n = 100
Since p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used.
l = np = 100 × 0.05 = 5
Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of defective pins in a box of
100.
2.114 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Probability of x defective pins in a box of 100

e - l l x e -5 5 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
Probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality
P( X > 10) = 1 - P( X £ 10)
10
= 1 - Â P( X = x )
x =0

e -5 5 x
10
= 1- Â
x =0 x !
= 0.0137

example 12
A car-hire firm has two cars, which it hires out day by day. The number
of demands for a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson distribution
with a mean of 1.5. Calculate the proportion of days on which (i) neither
car is used, and (ii) the proportion of days on which some demand is
refused.
Solution
l = 1.5
Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of demands for a car on each
day.
Probability of days on which there are x demands for a car
e - l l x e -1.5 1.5 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
(i) Proportion or probability of days on which neither car is used
e -1.5 1.50
P( X = 0) = = 0.2231
0!
(ii) Proportion or probability of days on which some demand is refused
P( X > 2) = 1 - P( X £ 2)
2
= 1 - Â P( X = x )
x =0
2
e -1.5 1.5 x
= 1- Â
x =0 x!
= 0.1912
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.115

example 13
Six coins are tossed 6400 times. Using the Poisson distribution, what is
the approximate probability of getting six heads 10 times?
Solution
Let p be the probability of getting one head with one coin.
1
p=
2
6
Ê 1ˆ 1
Probability of getting 6 heads with 6 coins = ÁË ˜¯ =
2 64
n = 6400
Ê 1ˆ
l = np = 6400 Á ˜ = 100
Ë 64 ¯
Probability of getting x heads
e - l l x e -100 100 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
Probability of getting 6 heads 10 times
e -100 10010
P ( X = 10) = = 1.025 ¥ 10 -30
10!

example 14
If 2% of lightbulbs are defective, find the probability that (i) at least one
is defective, and (ii) exactly 7 are defective. Also, find P(1 < X < 8) in a
sample of 100.
Solution
Let p be the probability of defective bulb.
p = 2% = 0.02
n = 100
Since p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used.
l = np = 100(0.02) = 2
Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of defective bulbs in a sample
of 100.
Probability of x defective bulb in a sample of 100
e - l l x e -2 2 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
2.116 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

(i) Probability that at least one bulb is defective

P( X ≥ 1) = 1 - P ( X = 0)
e -2 20
= 1-
0!
= 0.8647
(ii) Probability that exactly 7 bulbs are defective
e -2 27
P( X = 7) = = 0.0034
7!
(iii) P(1 < X < 8) = P( X = 2) + P( X = 3) + P( X = 4) + P( X = 5) + P( X = 6)
+ P( X = 7)
7
= Â P( X = x )
x =2
7
e -2 2 x
= Â x!
x =2
= 0.5929

example 15
An insurance company insured 4000 people against loss of both eyes
in a car accident. Based on previous data, the rates were computed on
the assumption that on the average, 10 persons in 100000 will have
car accidents each year that result in this type of injury. What is the
probability that more than 3 of the insured will collect on their policy in
a given year?
Solution
Let p be the probability of loss of both eyes in a car accident.
10
p= = 0.0001
100000
n = 4000
Since p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used.
l = np = 4000 (0.0001) = 0.4
Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of car accidents in a group of
4000 people.
Probability of x car accidents in a group of 4000 people
e - l l x e -0.4 0.4 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
Probability that more than 3 of the insured will collect on their policy, i.e., probability
of more than 3 car accidents in a group of 4000 people
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.117

P( X > 3) = 1 - P( X £ 3)
= 1 - [P( X = 0) + ( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)]
3
= 1 - Â P( X = x )
x =0
3
e -0.4 0.4 x
= 1- Â
x =0 x!
= 0.00077

example 16
If two cards are drawn from a pack of 52 cards which are diamonds,
using Poisson distribution, find the probability of getting two diamonds
at least 3 times in 51 consecutive trials of two cards drawing each
time.
Solution
Let p be the probability of getting two diamonds from a pack of 52 cards.
13
C2 3
p= 52
= , n = 51
C2 51
Since p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used.
Ê 3ˆ
l = np = 51Á ˜ = 3
Ë 51¯
Let X be the random variable which denotes the drawing of two diamond cards.
Probability of x trials of drawing two diamond cards in 51 trials
e - l l x e -3 3 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
Probability of getting two diamond cards at least 3 times in 51 trials
P(X ≥ 3) = 1 – P(X < 3)
= 1 – [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)]
2
e -3 3 x
= 1- Â
x =0 x !
= 0.5768

example 17
Suppose a book of 585 pages contains 43 typographical errors. If
these errors are randomly distributed throughout the book, what is the
probability that 10 pages, selected at random, will be free from errors?
2.118 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Solution
Let p be the probability of errors in a page.
43
p= = 0.0735, n = 10
585
Since p is very small and n is large, Poisson distribution is used.
l = np = 10(0.0735) = 0.735
Let X be the random variable which denotes the errors in the pages.
Probability of x errors in a page in a book of 585 pages
e - l l x e -0.735 0.735 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
Probability that a random sample of 10 pages will contain no error.
e -0.735 0.7350
P( X = 0) = = 0.4795
0!

example 18
A hospital switchboard receives an average of 4 emergency calls in a
10-minute interval. What is the probability that (i) there are at most
2 emergency calls? (ii) there are exactly 3 emergency calls in an interval
of 10 minutes?
Solution
Let p be the probability of receiving emergency calls per minute.
4
p= = 0.4, n = 10
10
l = np = 10 (0.4) = 4
Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of emergency calls per
minute.
Probability of x emergency calls per minute
e - l l x e -4 4 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
Probability that there are at most 2 emergency calls
P( X £ 2) = P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2)
2
= Â P( X = x )
x =0
2
e -4 4 x
= Â x!
x =0
= 0.238
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.119

Probability that there are exactly 3 emergency calls

e -4 43
P( X = 3) = = 0.1954
3!

example 19
A manufacturer, who produces medicine bottles, finds that 0.1% of
the bottles are defective. The bottles are packed in boxes containing
500 bottles. A drug manufacturer buys 100 boxes from the producer of
bottles. Using Poisson distribution, find how many boxes will contain
(i) no defective bottles and (ii) at least 2 defective bottles.
Solution
Let p be the probability of deflective bottles.
p = 0.1% = 0.001
n = 500
l = np = 500 (0.001) = 0.5
Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of defective bottles in a box
of 500.
Probability of x defective bottles in a box of 500
e - l l x e -0.5 0.5 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
(i) Probability of no defective bottles in a box
e -0.5 0.50
P( X = 0) = = 0.6065
0!
Number of boxes containing no defective bottles
f (x) = N P(x = 0) = 100(0.6065) ª 61
(ii) Probability of at least 2 defective bottles
P( X ≥ 2) = 1 - P( X < 2)
= 1 - [P( X = 0) + P( X = 1)]
1
= 1 Â P( X = x )
x =0
1
e -0.5 0.5 x
= 1- Â
x =0 x!
= 0.0902
Number of boxes containing at least 2 defective bottles
f (x) = N P(X ≥ 2) = 100 (0.0902) ª 9
2.120 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 20
1
In a certain factory turning out blades, there is a small chance of
500
for any blade to be defective. The blades are supplied in packets of 10.
Use the Poisson distribution to calculate the approximate number of
packets containing no defective, one defective, and two defective blades
in a consignment of 10000 packets.
Solution
Let p be the probability of defective blades in a packet.
1
p= , n = 10, N = 10000
500
Ê 1 ˆ
l = np = 10 Á = 0.02
Ë 500 ˜¯
Let X be the random variable which denotes the number of defective blades in a
packet.
Probability of x defective blades in a packet
e - l l x e -0.02 0.02 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
(i) Probability of no defective blades in a packet
e -0.02 0.020
P ( X = 0) = = 0.9802
0!
Number of packets with no defective blades
f (x) = N P(X = 0) = 10000(0.9802) = 9802
(ii) Probability of one defective blade in a packet
e-0.02 0.021
P( X = 1) = = 0.0196
1!
Number of packets with one defective blade
f (x) = N P(X = 1) = 10000 (0.0196) = 196
(iii) Probability of two defective blades in a packet
e -0.02 0.022
P( X = 2) = = 1.96 ¥ 10 -4
2!
Number of packets with 2 defective blades
f (x) = N P(X = 2) = 10000 (1.96 × 10–4) = 1.96 ª 2

example 21
The number of accidents in a year attributed to taxi drivers in a city
follows Poisson distribution with a mean of 3. Out of 1000 taxi drivers,
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.121

find approximately the number of drivers with (i) no accidents in a year,

and (ii) more than 3 accidents in a year.
Solution
For a Poisson distribution,
l = 3, N = 1000
Probably of x accidents in year
e - l l x e -3 3 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x! x!
(i) Probability of no accidents in a year
e -3 30
P( X = 0) = = 0.0498
0!
Number of drivers with no accidents
f (x) = N P(X = 0) = 1000(0.0498) = 49.8 ª 50
(ii) Probability of more than 3 accidents in a year
P( X > 3) = 1 - P( X £ 3)
= 1 - [P( X = 0) + P( X = 1) + P( X = 2) + P( X = 3)]
3
= 1 - Â P( X = x )
x =0
3
e -3 3 x
= 1- Â
x =0 x!
= 0.3528
Number of drivers with more than 3 accidents
f (x) = N P(X > 3) = 1000 (0.3528) = 3528 ª 353

example 22
Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data:
Number of deaths (x) 0 1 2 3 4
Frequency (f) 122 60 15 2 1

Solution
Mean =
 fx
Âf
122(0) + 60(1) + 15(2) + 2(3) + 1(4)
=
122 + 60 + 15 + 2 + 1
100
=
200
= 0.5
2.122 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

For a Poisson distribution,

l = 0.5
e - l l x e -0.5 0.5 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
x! x!
N = Â f = 100

Theoretical or expected frequency f (x) = N P(X = x)

200 e -0.5 0.5 x
f ( x) =
x!
200 e -0.5 0.50
f (0) = = 121.31 ª 121
0!
200 e -0.5 0.51
f (1) = = 60.65 ª 61
1!
200 e -0.5 0.52
f (2) = = 15.16 ª 15
2!
200 e -0.5 0.53
f (3) = = 2.53 ª 3
3!
200 e -0.5 0.54
f (4) = = 0.32 ª 0
4!
Poisson Distribution

Number of deaths (x) 0 1 2 3 4

Expected Poisson frequency f (x) 121 61 15 3 0

example 23
Assuming that the typing mistakes per page committed by a typist follows
a Poisson distribution, find the expected frequencies for the following
distribution of typing mistakes:
Number of mistakes per page 0 1 2 3 4 5

Number of pages 40 30 20 15 10 5

Solution

Mean =
 fx
Âf
40(0) + 30(1) + 20(2) + 15(3) + 10(4) + 5(5)
=
40 + 30 + 20 + 15 + 10 + 5
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.123

180
=
120
= 1.5
For a Poisson distribution,
l = 1.5
e - l l x e -1.5 1.5 x
P( X = x ) = = , x = 0, 1, 2,3, 4, 5
x! x!
N = Â f = 120

Expected frequency f ( x ) = N P ( X = x )
120 e -1.5 1.5 x
f ( x) =
x!
120 e -1.5 1.50
f (0) = = 26.78 ª 27
0!
120 e -1.5 1.51
f (1) = = 40.16 ª 40
1!
120 e -1.5 1.52
f (2) = = 30.12 ª 30
2!
120 e -1.5 1.53
f (3) = = 15.06 ª 15
3!
120 e -1.5 1.54
f (4) = = 5.65 ª 6
4!
120 e -1.5 1.55
f (5) = = 1.69 ª 2
5!

exercIse 2.6
1. The mean and variance of a probability distribution is 2. Write down
the distribution.
È e -2 2 x ˘
Í ans.: P ( X = x ) = , x = 0, 1, 2, ...˙
Î x! ˚
2. In a Poisson distribution, the probability P(X = 0) is 20 per cent. Find the
mean of the distribution.
ÈÎans.: 2.9957 ˘˚

3. If X is a Poisson variate and P(X = 0) = 6 P(X = 3), find P(X = 2).

ÈÎans.: 0.1839˘˚
2.124 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

4. The standard deviation of a Poisson distribution is 3. Find the probability

of getting 3 successes.
ÈÎans.: 0.0149˘˚

5. The probability that a Poisson variable X takes a positive value is

1 – e–1.5. Find the variance and the probability that X lies between –1.5
and 1.5.
ÈÎans.: 1.5, 0.5578˘˚

6. If 2 per cent bulbs are known to be defective bulbs, find the probability
that in a lot of 300 bulbs, there will be 2 or 3 defective bulbs using
Poisson distribution.
ÈÎans.: 0.1338˘˚

7. In a certain manufacturing process, 5% of the tools produced turn out

to be defective. Find the probability that in a sample of 40 tools, at
most 2 will be defective.
ÎÈans.: 0.675˚˘
8. If the probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from a
particular injection is 0.001, determine the probability that out of 2000
individuals (i) exactly three, and (ii) more than two individuals suffer a
bad reaction.
ÈÎans.: (i) 0.1804 (ii) 0.3233˘˚

9. It is known from past experience that in a certain plant, there are on

the average 4 industrial accidents per year. Find the probability that
in a given year, there will be less than 4 accidents. Assume Poisson
distribution.
ÈÎans.: 0.43˘˚

10. Find the probability that at most 5 defective fuses will be found in
a box of 200 fuses, if experience shows that 2% of such fuses are
defective.
ÈÎans.: 0.7851˘˚

11. Assume that the probability of an individual coal minor being killed
1
in a mine accident during a year is . Use appropriate statistical
2400
distribution to calculate the probability that in a mine employing 200
miners, there will be at least one fatal accident every year.
ÈÎans.: 0.07 ˘˚

12. Between the hours of 2 and 4 p.m., the average number of phone calls
per minute coming into the switchboard of a company is 2.5. Find the
 2.10 Poisson Distribution 2.125

probability that during a particular minute, there will be (i) no phone

call at all, (ii) 4 or less calls, and (iii) more than 6 calls.

ÎÈans.: (i) 0.0821(ii) 0.8909 (iii) 0.0145˚˘

13. Suppose that a local appliances shop has found from experience that
the demand for tubelights is roughly distributed as Poisson with a
mean of 4 tubelights per week. If the shop keeps 6 tubelights during a
particular week, what is the probability that the demand will exceed
the supply during that week?
ÈÎans.: 0.1106 ˘˚

14. The distribution of the number of road accidents per day in a city is
Poisson with a mean of 4. Find the number of days out of 100 days
when there will be (i) no accident, (i) at least 2 accidents, and (iii) at
most 3 accidents.
ÈÎans.: (i) 2 (ii) 91(iii) 44 ˘˚

15. A manufacturer of electric bulbs sends out 500 lots each consisting of
100 bulbs. If 5% bulbs are defective, in how many lot can we expect
(i) 97 or more good bulbs? (ii) less than 96 good bulbs?
ÈÎans.: (i) 62 (ii) 132˘˚

16. A firm produces articles, 0.1 per cent of which are defective. It packs
them in cases containing 500 articles. If a wholesaler purchases 100
such cases, how many cases can be expectecd (i) to be free from
defects? (ii) to have one defective article?
ÎÈans.: (i) 16 (ii) 30 ˚˘
17. In a certain factory producing certain articles, the probability that an
1
article is defective is . The articles are supplied in packets of 20.
500
Find approximately the number of packets containing no defective,
one defective, two defectives in a consignment of 20000 packets.
ÈÎans.: 19200, 768, 15˘˚

18. In a certain factory manufacturing razor blades, there is a small

1
chance, for any blade to be defective. The blades are placed in
50
packets, each containing 10 blades. Using the Poisson distribution,
calculate the approximate number of packets containing not more
than 2 defective blades in a consignment of 10000 packets.
ÎÈans.: 9988˚˘
2.126 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

19. It is known that 0.5% of ballpen refills produced by a factory are

defective. These refills are dispatched in packaging of equal numbers.
Using a Poisson distribution, determine the number of refills in a
packing to be sure that at least 95% of them contain no defective
refills.
ÈÎans.: 10 ˘˚

20. A manufacturer finds that the average demand per day for the
mechanics to repair his new product is 1.5 over a period of one
year and the demand per day is distributed as a Poisson variate. He
employs two mechanics. On how many days in one year (i) would both
mechanics would be free? (ii) some demand is refused?
ÈÎans.: (i) 81.4 days (ii) 69.8 days˘˚

21. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data:

X 0 1 2 3 4

f 211 90 19 5 0

ÈÎans.: l = 0.44, Frequencies : 209, 92, 20, 3, 1˘˚

22. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data:

No. of defects per piece 0 1 2 3 4

No. of pieces 43 40 25 10 2

ÈÎans.: Frequencies: 42, 44, 24, 8, 2˘˚

23. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data:

X 0 1 2 3 4 5

f 142 156 69 27 5 1

ÈÎans.: Frequencies:147, 147, 74, 24, 6, 2˘˚

24. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data:

X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

f 56 156 132 92 37 22 4 0 1

ÈÎans.: Frequency : 70, 137, 135, 89, 44, 17, 6, 2, 0 ˘˚

 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.127

2.11 normal dIstrIbutIon

A continuous random variable X is said to

follow normal distribution with mean m and
variance s2, if its probability function is
given by
2
1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
f ( x) = e
s 2p
- • < X < •, - • < m < •, s > 0 Fig. 2.1
where m and s are called parameters of the normal distribution. The curve representing
the normal distribution is called the normal curve (Fig. 2.1).

2.11.1 Properties of the normal distribution

A normal probability curve, or normal curve, has the following properties:
(i) It is a bell-shaped symmetrical curve about the ordinate X = m. The ordinate is
maximum at X = m.
(ii) It is a unimodal curve and its tails extend infinitely in both the directions, i.e.,
the curve is asymptotic to X-axis in both the directions.
(iii) All the three measures of central tendency coincide, i.e.,
mean = median = mode
(iv) The total area under the curve gives the total probability of the random variable
X taking values between – • to •. Mathematically,
2
• 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
P(-• < X < •) = Ú e dx = 1
-• s 2p
(v) The ordinate at X = m divides the area under the normal curve into two equal
parts, i.e.,
m •
1
Ú f ( x ) dx = Ú f ( x) dx = 2
-• m

(vi) The value of f (x) is always nonnegative for all values of X, i.e., the whole curve
lies above the X-axis.
(vii) The points of inflexion (the point at which curvature changes) of the curve are
at X = m + s and the curve changes from concave to convex at X = m + s to
X = m – s.
(viii) The area under the normal curve (Fig. 2.2) is distributed as follows:
(a) The area between the ordinates at m – s and m + s is 68.27%
(b) The area between the ordinates at m – 2s and m + 2s is 95.45%
(c) The area between the ordinates at m – 3s and m + 3s is 99.74%
2.128 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Fig. 2.2

2.11.2 constants of the normal distribution

1. mean of the normal distribution

•
E( X ) = Ú x f ( x ) dx
-•
2
• 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
= Ú x
s 2p
e dx
-•

x-m
Putting = t , dx = s dt
s
• 1
1 - t2
E( X ) = Ú ( m + s t)
2p
e 2 dt

-•
• 1 • 1
1 - t2 t - t2
=m Ú 2p
e 2 dt + Ú s
2p
e 2 dt

-• -•

Putting t2 = u in the second integral,

2t dt = du
When t Æ •, uÆ•
When t Æ –•, u Æ •
1
• È 1
• 1 1
- t2
- u ˘
du
E( X ) = m ◊ 2p + Ú s ◊ Í∵ Ú e 2 dt = 2p ˙
e 2
2p • 2p ÍÎ -• ˙˚
2

= m+0 [∵ the limits of integration are same ]

=m

2. variance of the normal distribution

Var(X) = E(X – m)2
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.129

•
= Ú (x - m)
2
f ( x ) dx
-•
2
• 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
= Ú (x - m)
2
e dx
-• 2p s
x-m
Putting = t , dx = s dt
s
• 1
1 - t2
Var ( X ) = Ús
2 2 2
t e dt
-• 2p
• 1
s2 - t2
=
2p
Ú t2 e 2 dt
-•
• 1
2s 2 - t2
= Út e
2 2 dt
[∵ integral is an even function ]
2p 0

t2
Putting = u,
2
t = 2u
1 1
dt = 2 du = du
2 u 2u
When t = 0, u=0
When t = •, u=•
•
2s 2 -u 1
Var( X ) =
2p
Ú 2ue 2u
du
0
• 1
2s 2 -u
=
p
Ú e u 2 du
0

2s 2
3 È •
- x n -1
˘
=
p 2
Í∵
ÍÎ
Úe x dx = n ˙
˙˚
0
2
2s 1 1
=
p 2 2
2s 2 1
= p
p 2
= s2
3. standard deviation of the normal distribution
SD = s
2.130 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

4. mode of the normal distribution

Mode is the value of x for which f (x) is maximum. Mode is given by
f ¢( x ) = 0 and f ¢¢( x ) < 0
For normal distribution,
2
1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
f ( x) = e
s 2p
Differentiating w.r.t. x,
2
1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á
2Ë s ¯
˜ È Ê x - mˆ˘
f ¢( x ) = e Í- ÁË 2 ˜¯ ˙
s 2p Î s ˚
x-m
=- f ( x)
s2
When f ¢( x ) = 0, x-m =0
x=m
1
f ¢¢( x ) = - [( x - m ) f ¢( x) + f ( x)]
s2
1 È Ï (x - m) ¸ ˘
=- 2 Í
( x - m ) Ì- 2
f ( x ) ˝ + f ( x )˙
s Î Ó s ˛ ˚
1 È ( x - m )2 ˘
=- f ( x ) Í1 - ˙
s2 Î s2 ˚
At x = m,
f ( x) 1
f ¢¢( x ) = 2
=- 3
<0
s s 2p
Hence, x = m is the mode of the normal distribution.
5. median of the normal distribution

If M is median of the normal distribution,

M
1
Ú f ( x ) dx =
2
-•
2
M 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜ 1
2Ë s ¯
Ú e dx =
2
-• s 2p
2 2
m 1 Ê x-m ˆ M - 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜ 1 Á ˜ 1
2Ë s ¯ 2Ë s ¯
s 2p
Úe dx +
s 2p
Úe dx =
2
...(2.3)
-• m
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.131

x-m
Putting = t in the first integral,
s
dx = s dt
When x = – •, t=–•
When x = m, t=0
2
m 1 Ê x-m ˆ 0 1
1 - Á ˜ 1 - t2
2Ë s ¯
s 2p
Ú e dx =
s 2p
Ú e 2 s dt
-• -•
0 1
1 - t2
=
2p
Ú e 2 dt
-•
• 1
1 - t2
=
2p
Úe 2 dt [By symmetry]
0

1 p
=
2p 2
1
= ...(2.4)
2
From Eqs (2.3) and (2.4),
2
M - 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 1 Á ˜ 1
2Ë s ¯
+
2 s 2p Úe dx =
2
m
2
M - 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
s 2p
Úe dx = 0
m
2
M - 1 Ê x-m ˆ
Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
Úe dx = 0
m

È b ˘
m = M Í∵ if Ú f ( x) dx = 0 then a = b where f ( x) > 0˙˙
ÎÍ a ˚
Hence, mean = median for the normal distribution.
note For normal distribution,
mean = median = mode = m
Hence, the normal distribution is symmetrical.
2.132 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

2.11.3 Probability of a normal random variable in an

Interval
Let X be a normal random variable with P(X)
mean m and standard deviation s. The
probability of X lying in the interval (x1,
x2) (Fig. 2.3) is given by
2
x2 1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
P( x1 £ X £ x2 ) = Ús 2p
e dx
O x1 x2 X
x1
Fig. 2.3
Hence, the probability is equal to the
area under the normal curve between the
ordinates X = x1 and X = x2 respectively. P(x1 < X < x2) can be evaluated easily by
converting a normal random variable into another random variable.
X-m
Let Z= be a new random variable.
s
Ê X - mˆ 1
E(Z ) = E Á = [E ( X ) - m ] = 0
Ë s ˜¯ s
Ê X - mˆ 1 1
Var ( Z ) = Var Á = Var ( X - m ) = 2 Var ( X ) = 1
Ë s ˜¯ s 2 s
The distribution of Z is also normal. Thus, if X is a normal random variable with mean
X-m
m and standard deviation s then Z = is a normal random variable with mean 0
s
and standard deviation 1. Since the parameters of the distribution of Z are fixed, it is a
known distribution and is termed standard normal distribution. Further, Z is termed as
a standard normal variate. Thus, the distribution of any normal variate X can always
be transformed into the distribution of the standard normal variate Z.
ÈÊ x - m ˆ Ê X - m ˆ Ê x2 - m ˆ ˘
P( x1 £ X £ x2 ) = P ÍÁ 1 ˜ £Á ˜ £Á ˜˙
ÎË s ¯ Ë s ¯ Ë s ¯ ˚
= P ( z1 £ Z £ z2 )
x1 - m x -m
where z1 = and z2 = 2
s s
This probability is equal to the area under the standard normal curve between the
ordinates at Z = z1 and Z = z2.
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.133

case I If both z1 and z2 are positive

(or both negative) (Fig. 2.4),
P( x1 £ X £ x2 )
= P( z1 £ Z £ z2 )
= P(0 £ Z £ z2 ) - P(0 £ Z £ z1 )
= (Area under the normal curve from 0 to z2 )
- (Area under the normal curve from 0 to z1 ) Fig. 2.4

case II If z1 < 0 and z2 > 0 (Fig. 2.5),

P( x1 £ X £ x2 )
= P(- z1 £ Z £ z2 )
= P(- z1 £ Z £ 0) + P (0 £ Z £ z2 )
= P(0 £ Z £ z1 ) + P (0 £ Z £ z2 )
[By symmetry]
= (Area under the normal curve from 0 to z1 ) Fig. 2.5

+ (Area under the normal curve from 0 to z2 )

When X > x1, Z > z1, the probability P(Z > z1) can be found for two cases as follows:

case I If z1 > 0 (Fig. 2.6),

P( X > x1 ) = P( Z > z1 )
= 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ z1 )
= 0.5 – (Area under the curve
from 0 to z1)
Fig. 2.6
case II If z1 < 0 (Fig. 2.7),
P( X > x1 ) = P( Z > - z1 )
= 0.5 + P(- z1 < Z < 0)

= 0.5 + P(0 < Z < z1)

[By symmetry)
= 0.5 + (Area under the curve
from 0 to z1) Fig. 2.7
2.134 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

When X < x1, Z < z1, the probability P(Z < z1) can be found for two cases as follows:
case I If z1 > 0 (Fig. 2.8),
P( X < x1 ) = P ( Z < z1 )
= 1 - P( Z ≥ z1 )
= 1 - ÎÈ0.5 - P (0 < Z < z1 )˚˘
= 0.5 + P (0 < Z < z1 )
= 0.5 + (Area under the curve from 0 to z1 ) Fig. 2.8

case II If z1 < 0 (Fig. 2.9),

P( X < x1 ) = P( Z < - z1 )
= 1 - P( Z ≥ - z1 )
= 1 - ÈÎ0.5 + P(- z1 £ Z £ 0)˘˚
= 1 - ÎÈ0.5 + P(0 £ Z £ z1 )˚˘
[By symmetry] Fig. 2.9
= 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ z1 )
= 0.5 - (Area under the curve from 0 to z1 )

note
x1
(i) P( X < x1 ) = F ( x1 ) =
Ú f ( x ) dx
-•

Hence, P(X < x1) represents the

area under the curve from X = – •
to X = x1.
(ii) If P(X < x1) < 0.5, the point x1
lies to the left of X = m and the
corresponding value of standard
Fig. 2.10
normal variate will be negative
(Fig. 2.10).

(iii) If P(X < x1) > 0.5, the point x1 lies

to the right of x = m and the
corresponding value of standard
normal variate will be positive
(Fig. 2.11).

Fig. 2.11
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.135

standard normal (Z) table, area between 0 and z

Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3990 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990
2.136 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

2.11.4 uses of normal distribution

(i) The normal distribution can be used to approximate binomial and Poisson
distributions.
(ii) It is used extensively in sampling theory. It helps to estimate parameters from
statistics and to find confidence limits of the parameter.
(iii) It is widely used in testing statistical hypothesis and tests of significance in
which it is always assumed that the population from which the samples have
been drawn should have normal distribution.
(iv) It serves as a guiding instrument in the analysis and interpretation of statistical
data.
(v) It can be used for smoothing and graduating a distribution which is not normal
simply by contracting a normal curve.

example 1
What is the probability that a standard normal variate Z will be (i) greater
than 1.09? (ii) less than –1.65? (iii) lying between –1 and 1.96?
(iv) lying between 1.25 and 2.75?
Solution
(i) Z > 1.09 (Fig. 2.12)
P( Z > 1.09) = 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ 1.09)
= 0.5 - 0.3621
= 0.1379
Fig. 2.12
(ii) Z £ –1.65 (Fig. 2.13)
P( Z £ -1.65) = 1 - P( Z > -1.65)
= 1 - [0.5 + P(-1.65 < Z < 0)]
= 1 - [0.5 + P(0 < Z < 1.65)]
[By symmetry]
= 0.5 - P(0 < Z < 1.65)
= 0.5 - 0.4505 Fig. 2.13
= 0.0495
(iii) –1 < Z < 1.96 (Fig. 2.14)
P(-1 < Z < 1.96)
= P(-1 < Z < 0) + P(0 < Z < 1.96)
= P(0 < Z < 1) + P(0 < Z < 1.96)
[By symmetry]
= 0.3413 + 0.4750
= 0.8163 Fig. 2.14
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.137

(iv) 1.25 < Z < 2.75 (Fig. 2.15)

P(1.25 < Z < 275)
= P(0 < Z < 2.75) - P(0 < Z < 1.25)
= 0.4970 - 0.3944
= 0.1026
Fig. 2.15

example 2
If X is a normal variate with a mean of 30 and an SD of 5, find the
probabilities that (i) 26 £ X £ 40, and (ii) X ≥ 45.
Solution
m = 30, s=5
X-m
Z=
s
26 - 30
(i) When X = 26, Z = = -0.8
5
40 - 30
When X = 40, Z = =2
5
Fig. 2.16
P(26 £ X £ 40) = P (-0.8 £ Z £ 2) (Fig. 2.16)
= P(-0.8 £ Z £ 0) + P(0 £ Z £ 2)
= P(0 £ Z £ 0.8) + P(0 £ Z £ 2) [By symmetry]
= 0.2881 + 0.4772
= 0.7653
45 - 30
(ii) When X = 45, Z = =3
5
P( X ≥ 45) = P( Z ≥ 3) (Fig. 2.17)
= 0.5 - P(0 < Z < 3)
= 0.5 - 0.4987
= 0.0013
Fig. 2.17

example 3
X is normally distributed and the mean of X is 12 and the SD is 4. Find
out the probability of the following:
(i) X ≥ 20 (ii) X £ 20 (iii) 0 £ X £ 12.
2.138 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Solution
m = 12, s=4
X-m
Z=
s
20 - 12
(i) When X = 20, Z = =2
4
P( X ≥ 20) = P( Z ≥ 2) (Fig. 2.18)
= 0.5 - P (0 < Z < 2)
= 0.5 - 0.4772
= 0.0228
Fig. 2.18
(ii) P( X £ 20) = 1 - P ( X > 20)
= 1 - 0.0228
= 0.9772
0 - 12
(iii) When X = 0, Z = = -3
4
12 - 12
When X = 12, Z = =0
4 Fig. 2.19
P(0 £ X £ 12) = P (-3 £ Z £ 0) (Fig. 2.19)
= P(0 £ Z £ 3) [By symmetry ]
= 0.4987

example 4
If X is normally distributed with a mean of 2 and an SD of 0.1, find
P ( X - 2 ) ≥ 0.01)?

Solution:
m = 2, s = 0.1
X-m
Z=
s
1.99 - 2
When X = 1.99, Z = = -0.1 Fig. 2.20
0.1
2.01 - 2
When X = 2.01, Z = = 0.1
0.1
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.139

P ( X - 2 £ 0.01) = P(1.99 £ X £ 2.01) (Fig. 2.20)

= P(-0.1 £ Z £ 0.1)
= P(-0.1 £ Z £ 0) + P (0 £ Z £ 0.1)
= P(0 £ Z £ 0.1) + P (0 £ Z £ 0.1) [By symmetry]
= 2 P(0 < Z £ 0.1)
= 2(0.0398)
= 0.0796
P ( X - 2 ≥ 0.01) = 1 - P ( X - 2 < 0.01)
= 1 - 0.0796
= 0.9204

example 5
If X is a normal variate with a mean of 120 and a standard deviation of
10, find c such that (i) P(X > c) = 0.02, and (ii) P(X< c) = 0.05.
Solution
For normal variate X,
m = 120, s = 10
X-m
Z=
s
(i) P(X > c) = 0.02
P(X < c) = 1 – P(X ≥ c)
= 1 – 0.02
= 0.98
Since P(X < c) > 0.5, the corre-
sponding value of Z will be positive.
P(X > c) = P(Z > z1) (Fig. 2.21)
0.02 = 0.5 – P(0 £ Z £ z1)
P(0 £ Z £ z1) = 0.48
\ z1 = 2.05 [From normal table]
Fig. 2.21
c - 120
Z= = z1 = 2.05
10
c = 2.05(10) + 120 = 140.05
(ii) Since P(X < c) < 0.5, the corresponding
value of Z will be negative.
P( X < c) = P( Z < - z1 ) (Fig. 2.22)
0.05 = 1 - P( Z ≥ - z1 )
Fig. 2.22
0.05 = 1 - ÎÈ0.5 + P (- z1 £ Z £ 0)˚˘
2.140 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

0.05 = 1 - ÈÎ0.5 + P (0 £ Z £ z1 )˘˚ [By symmetry]

0.05 = 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ z1 )
P(0 £ Z £ z1 ) = 0.5 - 0.05 = 0.45
\ z1 = -1.64 [From normal table]
c - 120
Z= = z1 = -1.64
10
c = 10 (-1.64) + 120 = 103.6

example 6
A manufacturer knows from his experience that the resistances of
resistors he produces is normal with m = 100 ohms and SD = s = 2 ohms.
What percentage of resistors will have resistances between 98 ohms and
102 ohms?
Solution
Let X be the random variable which denotes the resistances of the resistors.
m = 100, s =2
X-m
Z=
s
98 - 100
When X = 98, Z= = -1
2
102 - 100
When X = 102, Z = =1 Fig. 2.23
2
P(98 £ X £ 102) = P(-1 £ Z £ 1) (Fig. 2.23)
= P(-1 £ Z £ 0) + P(0 £ Z £ 1)
= P(0 £ Z £ 1) + P(0 £ Z £ 1) [By symmetry]
= 2 P(0 £ Z £ 1)
= 2(0.3413)
= 0.6826
Hence, the percentage of resistors have resistances between 98 ohms and 102 ohms =
68.26%.

example 7
The average seasonal rainfall in a place is 16 inches with an SD of
4 inches. What is the probability that the rainfall in that place will be
between 20 and 24 inches in a year?
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.141

Solution
Let X be the random variable which denotes the seasonal rainfall in a year.
m = 16, s =4
X-m
Z=
s
20 - 16
When X = 20, Z= =1
4
24 - 16
When X = 24, Z= =2
4 Fig. 2.24
P(20 < X < 24) = P (1 < Z < 2) (Fig. 2.24)
= P (0 < Z < 2) - P (0 < Z < 1)
= 0.4772 - 0.3413
= 0.1359

example 8
The lifetime of a certain kind of batteries has a mean life of 400 hours
and the standard deviation as 45 hours. Assuming the distribution of
lifetime to be normal, find (i) the percentage of batteries with a lifetime
of at least 470 hours, (ii) the proportion of batteries with a lifetime
between 385 and 415 hours, and (iii) the minimum life of the best 5%
of batteries.
Solution
Let X be the random variable which denotes the lifetime of a certain kind of batteries.
m = 400, s = 45
X-m
Z=
s
(i) When X = 470,
470 - 400
Z= = 1.56
45
P( X ≥ 470) = P( Z ≥ 1.56) (Fig. 2.25)
= 0.5 - P(0 < Z < 1.56)
= 0.5 - 0.4406
= 0.0594
Fig. 2.25
Hence, the percentage of batteries
with a lifetime of at least 470 hours
= 5.94%.
2.142 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

(ii) When X = 385,

385 - 400
Z= = -0.33
45
When X = 415,
415 - 400
Z= = 0.33
45
Fig. 2.26
P(385 < X < 415) = P(-0.33 < Z < 0.33) (Fig. 2.26)
= P(-0.33 < Z < 0) + P (0 < Z < 0.33)
= P(0 < Z < 0.33) + P(0 < Z < 0.33) [By symmetry]
= 2 P (0 < Z < 0.33)
= 2(0.1293)
= 0.2586
Hence, the proportion of batteries with a lifetime between 385 and 415 hours
= 25.86%.
(iii) P(X > x1) = 0.05 (Fig. 2.27)
P(X > x1) = P(Z > z1)
0.05 = 0.5 – P(0 £ Z £ z1)
P(0 £ Z £ z1) = 0.5 – 0.05 = 0.45
\ z1 = 1.65 [From normal table]
x - 400
Z= 1 = z1 = 1.65
45
\ x1 = 1.65(45) + 400 = 474.25 hours Fig. 2.27

example 9
If the weights of 300 students are normally distributed with a mean of
68 kg and a standard deviation of 3 kg, how many students have weights
(i) greater than 72 kg? (ii) less than or equal to 64 kg? (iii) between
65 kg and 71 kg inclusive?
Solution
Let X be the random variable which denotes the weight of a student.
m = 68, s = 3, N = 300
X-m
Z=
s
72 - 68
(i) When X = 72, Z= = 1.33
3

Fig. 2.28
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.143

P( X > 72) = P( Z > 1.33) (Fig. 2.28)

= 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ 1.33)
= 0.5 - 0.4082
= 0.0918

Number of students with weights more than 72 kg = N P( X > 72)

= 300(0.0918)
= 27.54
ª 28
64 - 68
(ii) When X = 64, Z = = -1.33
3
P( X £ 64) = P ( Z £ -1.33) (Fig. 2.29)
= P ( Z ≥ 1.33) [By symmetry]
= 0.5 - P (0 < Z < 1.33)
= 0.5 - 0.4082
= 0.0918
Number of students with weights
less than or equal to 64 kg
= N P( X £ 64)
= 300 (0.0918) Fig. 2.29

= 27.54
ª 28
65 - 68
(iii) When X = 65, Z= = -1
3
71 - 68
When X = 71, Z= =1
3

P(65 £ X £ 71) = P (-1 £ Z £ 1) (Fig. 2.30) Fig. 2.30

= P(-1 £ Z £ 0) + P(0 £ Z £ 1)
= P(0 £ Z £ 1) + P (0 £ Z £ 1) [By symmetry]
= 2 P(0 £ Z £ 1)
= 2(0.3413)
= 0.6826
Number of students with weights between 65 and 71 kg = N P(65 £ X £ 71)
= 300(0.6826)
= 204.78
ª 205
2.144 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 10
The mean yield for a one-acre plot is 662 kg with an SD of 32 kg.
Assuming normal distribution, how many one-acre plots in a batch of
1000 plots would you expect to have yields (i) over 700 kg? (ii) below
650 kg? (iii) What is the lowest yield of the best 100 plots?
Solution
Let X be the random variable which denotes the yield for the one-acre plot.
m = 662, s = 32, N = 1000
X-m
Z=
s
700 - 662
(i) When X = 700, Z= = 1.19
32
P( X > 700) = P ( Z > 1.19) (Fig. 2.31)
= 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ 1.19)
= 0.5 - 0.3830
= 0.1170 Fig. 2.31
Expected number of plots with yields over 700 kg = N P ( X > 700)
= 1000 (0.1170)
= 117

(ii) When X = 650,

650 - 662
Z= = -0.38
32
P( X < 650) = P ( Z < -0.38) (Fig. 2.32)
= P( Z > 0.38)
[By symmetry]
= 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ 0.38)
= 0.5 - 0.1480 Fig. 2.32
= 0.352
Expected number of plots with yields below 650 kg = N P( X < 650)
= 1000(0.352)
= 352
(iii) The lowest yield, say, x1 of the best 100 plots is given by
100
P( X > x1 ) = = 0.1
1000
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.145

x1 - 662
When X = x1 , Z= = z1
32
P( X > x1 ) = P( Z > z1 )
0.1 = 0.5 - P (0 £ Z £ z1 )
P(0 £ Z £ z1 ) = 0.4
\ z1 = 1.2 (approx.) [From normal table]
x1 - 662
= 1.28
32
x1 = 702.96
Hence, the best 100 plots have yields over 702.96 kg.

example 11
Assume that the mean height of Indian soldiers is 68.22 inches with a
variance of 10.8 inches. How many soldiers in a regiment of 1000 would
you expect to be over 6 feet tall?
Solution
Let X be the continuous random variable which denotes the heights of Indian
soldiers.
m = 68.22, s 2 = 10.8, N = 1000
s = 3.29
X-m
Z=
s
When X = 6 feet = 72 inches,
72 - 68.22
Z= = 1.15
3.29
Fig. 2.33
P( X > 72) = P ( Z > 1.15) (Fig. 2.33)
= 0.5 - P (0 £ Z £ 1.15)
= 0.5 - 0.3749
= 0.1251
Expected number of Indian soldiers having heights over 6 feet (72 inches)
= N P( X > 72)
= 1000(0.1251)
= 125.1
ª 125
2.146 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 12
The marks obtained by students in a college are normally distributed
with a mean of 65 and a variance of 25. If 3 students are selected at
random from this college, what is the probability that at least one of
them would have scored more than 75 marks?
Solution
Let X be the continuous random variable which denotes the marks of a student.
m = 65, s 2 = 25
s =5
X-m
Z=
s
75 - 65
When X = 75, Z= =2
5
P( X > 75) = P( Z > 2) (Fig. 2.34)
= 0.5 - P(0 £ Z £ 2) Fig. 2.34
= 0.5 - 0.4772
= 0.0228
If p is the probability of scoring more than 75 marks,
p = 0.0228, q = 1 – p = 1 – 0.0228 = 0.9772
P(at least one student would have scored more than 75 marks)
3
= Â 3C x p x q n - x
x =1
3
= Â 3C x (0.0228) x (0.9772)3- x
x =1
= 0.0668

example 13
Find the mean and standard deviation in which 7% of items are under
35 and 89% are under 63.
Solution
Let m be the mean and s be standard deviation of the normal curve.
P( X < 35) = 0.07
P( X < 63) = 0.89
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.147

P( X > 63) = 1 - P( X < 63) = 1 - 0.89 = 0.11

X-m
Z=
s
Since P(X < 35) < 0.5, the corresponding value of Z will be negative.
35 - m
When X = 35, Z = = – z1 (say)
s
Since P(X < 63) > 0.5, the corresponding value of Z will be positive.
63 - m
When X = 63, Z= = z2 (say)
s
From Fig. 2.35,
P(Z < –z1) = 0.07
P(Z > z2) = 0.11
P (0 < Z < z1 ) = P (- z1 < Z < 0)
= 0.5 - P ( Z £ - z1 ) Fig. 2.35

= 0.5 - 0.07
= 0.43
z1 = 1.48 [From normal table]
P(0 < Z < z2 ) = 0.5 - P ( Z ≥ z2 )
= 0.5 - 0.11
= 0.39
z2 = 1.23 [From normal table]
35 - m
Hence, = -1.48
s
–1.48 s + m = 35 ...(1)
63 - m
and = 1.23
s
1.23 s + m = 63 ...(2)
Solving Eqs (1) and (2),
m = 50.29, s = 10.33

example 14
In an examination, it is laid down that a student passes if he secures 40 %
or more. He is placed in the first, second, and third division according to
whether he secures 60% or more marks, between 50% and 60% marks
and between 40% and 50% marks respectively. He gets a distinction in
case he secures 75% or more. It is noticed from the result that 10% of
2.148 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

the students failed in the examination, whereas 5% of them obtained

distinction. Calculate the percentage of students placed in the second
division. (Assume normal distribution of marks.)
Solution
Let X be the random variable which denotes the marks of students in the examination.
Let m be the mean and s be the standard deviation of the normal distribution of
marks.
P( X < 40) = 0.10
P( X ≥ 75) = 0.05
P( X < 75) = 1 - P( X ≥ 75) = 1 - 0.05 = 0.95
X-m
Z=
s
Since P(X < 40) < 0.5, the corresponding value of Z will be negative.
40 - m
When X = 40, Z = = - z1 (say)
s
Since P(X < 75) < 0.5, the corresponding value of Z will be positive.
75 - m
When X = 75, Z = = z2 (say)
s
From Fig. 2.36,
P( Z < - z1 ) = 0.10
P( Z > z2 ) = 0.05
P(0 < Z < z1 ) = P(- z1 < Z < 0)
= 0.5 - P( Z £ - z1 ) Fig. 2.36

= 0.5 - 0.10
= 0.40
z1 = 1.28 [From normal table]
P(0 < Z < z2 ) = 0.5 - P( Z ≥ z2 )
= 0.5 - 0.05
= 0.45
z2 = 1.64 [From normal table]
40 - m
Hence, = -1.28
s
m – 1.28 s = 40 ...(1)
75 - m
and = 1.64
s
m + 1.64 s = 75 ...(2)
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.149

Solving Eqs (1) and (2),

m = 55.34 ª 55
s = 11.98 ª 12
Probability that a student is placed in the second division is equal to the probability
that his score lies between 50 and 60
50 - 55
When X = 50, Z = = -0.42
12
60 - 55
When X = 60, Z = = 0.42
12
P(50 < X < 60) = P (-0.42 < Z < 0.42)
= P(-0.42 < Z < 0) + P (0 < Z < 0.42)
= P(0 < Z < 0.42) + P (0 < Z < 0.42) [By symmetry]
= 2 P(0 < Z < 0.42)
= 2 (0.1628)
= 0.3256
ª 0.32
Hence, the percentage of students placed in the second division = 32%.

2.11.5 Fitting a normal distribution

Fitting a normal distribution or a normal curve to the data means to find the equation
2
1 Ê x-m ˆ
1 - Á ˜
2Ë s ¯
of the curve in the form f ( x ) = e which will be as close as possible
s 2p
to the points given. There are two purposes of fitting a normal curve:
(i) To judge the whether the normal curve is the best fit to the sample data.
(ii) To use the normal curve to estimate the characteristics of a population.
The area method for fitting a normal curve is given by the following steps:
(i) Find the mean m and standard deviation s for the given data if not given.
(ii) Write the class intervals and lower limits X of class intervals in two columns.
X-m
(iii) Find Z = for each class interval.
s
(iv) Find the area corresponding to each Z from the normal table.
(v) Find the area under the normal curve between the successive values of Z. These
are obtained by subtracting the successive areas when the corresponding Z’s
have the same sign and adding them when the corresponding Z’s have the same
sign and adding them when the corresponding Z’s opposite sign.
(vi) Find the expected frequencies by multiplying the relative frequencies by the
number of observations.
2.150 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

example 1
Fit a normal curve from the following distribution. It is given that the
mean of the distribution is 43.7 and its standard distribution is 14.8.

Class interval 11–20 21–30 31–40 41–50 51–60 61–70 71–80

Frequency 20 28 40 60 32 20 8

Solution
m = 43.7, s = 14.8 N = Sf = 200
The series is converted into an inclusive series.

Class X-m Area from Area in class Expected

Lower class Z=
Interval s 0 to Z Interval Frequencies

10.5–20.5 10.5 –2.24 0.4875 0.0457 9.14 ª 9

20.5–30.5 20.5 –1.57 0.4418 0.1285 25.7 ª 26
30.5–40.5 30.5 –0.89 0.3133 0.2262 45.24 ª 45
40.5–50.5 40.5 –0.22 0.0871 0.2643 52.86 ª 53
50.5–60.5 50.5 0.46 0.1772 0.1957 39.14 ª 39
60.5–70.5 60.5 1.14 0.3729 0.092 18.4 ª 18
70.5–80.5 70.5 1.81 0.4649 0.0287 5.74 ª 65
80.5 2.49 0.4936

example 2
Fit a normal distribution to the following data:
X 125 135 145 155 165 175 185 195 205

Y 1 1 14 22 25 19 13 3 2

It is given that m = 165.5 and s = 15.26.

Solution
m = 165.5, s = 15.26 N = Sf = 100
The data is first converted into class intervals with inclusive series.
 2.11 Normal Distribution 2.151

Class X-m Area from Area in class Expected

Lower class Z=
Interval s 0 to Z Interval Frequencies

120–130 120 –2.98 0.4986 0.0085 0.85 ª 1

130–140 130 –2.33 0.4901 0.0376 3.74 ª 4
140–150 140 –1.67 0.4525 0.1064 10.64 ª 11
150–160 150 –1.02 0.3461 0.2055 20.55 ª 21
160–170 160 –0.36 0.1406 0.2547 25.47 ª 25
170–180 170 0.29 0.1141 0.2148 21.48 ª 21
180–190 180 0.95 0.3289 0.1174 11.74 ª 12
190–200 190 1.61 0.4463 0.0418 4.18 ª 4
200–210 200 2.26 0.4881 0.0101 1.01 ª 1
210–220 210 2.92 0.4982

exercIse 2.7
1. If X is normally distributed with a mean and standard deviation of 4,
find (i) P(5 £ X £ 10), (ii) P(X ≥ 15), (iii) P(10 £ X £ 15), and (iv) P(X £ 5).
ÎÈans.: (i) 0.3345 (ii) 0.003 (iii) 0.0638 (iv) 0.4013˚˘
2. A normal distribution has a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 3.
What is the probability that the deviation from the mean of an item
taken at random will be negative?
ÈÎans.: 0.0575˘˚

3. If X is a normal variate with a mean of 30 and an SD of 6, find the value

of X = x1 such that P(X ≥ x1) = 0.05.
ÈÎans.: 39.84 ˘˚

4. If X is a normal variate with a mean of 25 and SD of 5, find the value of

X = x1 such that P(X £ x1) = 0.01.
ÈÎans.: 11.02˘˚

5. The weights of 4000 students are found to be normally distributed with

a mean of 50 kg and an SD of 5 kg. Find the probability that a student
selected at random will have weight (i) less than 45 kg, and (ii) between
45 and 60 kg.
ÎÈans.: (i) 0.1587 (ii) 0.8185˚˘
6. The daily sales of a firm are normally distributed with a mean of ` 8000
and a variance of ` 10000. (i) What is the probability that on a certain
2.152 Chapter 2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions

day the sales will be less than ` 8210? (ii) What is the percentage of
days on which the sales will be between ` 8100 and ` 8200?
ÈÎans.: (i) 0.482 (ii) 14% ˘˚

7. The mean height of Indian soldiers is 68.22¢¢ with a variance of 10.8¢¢.

Find the expected number of soldiers in a regiment of 1000 whose
height will be more than 6 feet.
ÈÎans.: 125˘˚

8. The life of army shoes is normally distributed with a mean of 8 months

and a standard deviation of 2 months. If 5000 pairs are issued, how
many pairs would be expected to need replacement after 12 months?
ÈÎans.: 2386 ˘˚

9. In an intelligence test administered to 1000 students, the average was

42 and the standard deviation was 24. Find the number of students
(i) exceeding 50, (ii) between 30 and 54, and (iii) the least score of top
1000 students.
ÎÈans.: (i) 129 (ii) 383 (iii) 72.72˚˘
10. In a test of 2000 electric bulbs, it was found that the life of a
particular make was normally distributed with an average of life
of 2040 hours and a standard deviation of 60 hours. Estimate the
number of bulbs likely to burn for (i) more than 2150 hours, and
(ii) less than 1950 hours.
ÈÎans.: (i) 67 (ii) 184 ˘˚

11. The marks of 1000 students of a university are found to be normally

distributed with a mean of 70 and a standard of deviation 5. Estimate
the number of students whose marks will be (i) between 60 and 75,
(ii) more than 75, and (iii) less than 68.
ÈÎans.: (i) 910 (ii) 23 (iii) 37 ˘˚

12. In a normal distribution, 31% items are under 45 and 8% are over 64.
Find the mean and standard deviation. Find also, the percentage of
items lying between 30 and 75.
ÈÎans.: 50, 10, 0.957 ˘˚

13. Of a large group of men, 5% are under 60 inches in height and 40% are
between 60 and 65 inches. Assuming a normal distribution, find the
mean and standard deviation of distribution.
ÈÎans.: 65.42, 3.27 ˘˚
 2.11 Measures of Central Tendency for Discrete Probability Distribution 2.153

14. The marks obtained by students in an examination follow a normal

distribution. If 30% of the students got marks below 35 and 10% got
marks above 60, find the mean and percentage of students who got
marks between 40 and 50.
ÈÎans.: 42.23, 13.88, 28% ˘˚

15. Fit a normal distribution to the following data:

Class 60–65 65–70 70–75 75–80 80–85 85–90 90–95 95–100

Frequency 3 21 150 335 326 135 26 4

ÈÎans.: Expected frequency : 3, 31, 148, 322, 319, 144, 30, 3˘˚

Points to remember
Random Variables
A random variable X is a real-valued function of the elements of the sample space
of a random experiment. In other words, a variable which takes the real values,
depending on the outcome of a random experiment is called a random variable,
Discrete Random Variables: A random variable X is said to be discrete if it takes
either finite or countably infinite values.
Continuous Random Variables: A random variable X is said to be continuous if it
takes any values in a given interval.
Discrete Probability Distribution
Probability distribution of a random variable is the set of its possible values together
with their respective probabilities.
Discrete Distribution Function
x
F ( x ) = P( X £ x ) = Â p( xi )
i =1

Measures of Central Tendency for Discrete Probability Distribution

1. Mean
•
m = E ( X ) = Â xi p( xi ) = Â x p( x )
i =1

2. Variance
Var(X) = s2 = E(X – m)2
= E(X2) – [E(X)]2