Nigerian Journal of Management Sciences Vol.
24, Issue 2b August 2023
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
MAKWE, Emmanuel Uzoma
Department of Finance and Banking
Faculty of Management Sciences
University of Port Harcourt
[Link]@[Link]
IBECHIOLE, Onyekachi Chikamnele
Department of Banking and Finance
Faculty of Management Sciences
Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka
[Link]@[Link]
MOJEKWU, Ogechukwu Rita
Department of Finance and Banking
Faculty of Management Sciences
University of Port Harcourt
rittyy2000@[Link]
OLADELE, Akeeb Olushola
Department of Economics
Faculty of Social Sciences
University of Port Harcourt
akeeboladele@[Link]
ABSTRACT
This study examined government expenditures and economic growth in Nigeria. Government expenditure
was proxied by government capital expenditure and government recurrent expenditure while inflation rate
was used as a check variable in the study. On the other hand, economic growth was measured using real
gross domestic product. Relevant data were extracted from the annual Statistical Bulletin of the Central
Bank of Nigeria. Unit root test was conducted using Augmented Dickey Fuller method which revealed that
the variables were integrated at first difference except for inflation rate which was integrated at level.
Cointegration test was also conducted to determine long run relationship. More so, the ARDL ECM test
was carried out to ascertain the relationship among the variables. The results revealed that a significant
relationship exist between government capital expenditure and economic growth; government recurrent
expenditure and economic growth; inflation and economic growth. Based on the findings of the study, the
study recommends amongst others, that wasteful spending should be minimized. More so, proper
accounting and blocking of leakages is a necessity for economic improvement.
Keywords: Government expenditures; economic growth; capital expenditure; recurrent expenditure; gross
domestic product.
INTRODUCTION
Nigeria’s effectiveness in economic management has been a frontline discourse due to suboptimal public
sector performance since independence. The role of government in economic growth and development is
established in literature (Igwe & Ateke, 2019). The government of a nation is saddled with the responsibility
of stimulating full employment, economic growth, price stability, improved standard of living and poverty
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reduction. Economic growth - the annual rate of increase in a nations real GDP - is taken as a key objective
for defeating persistent poverty and offering hope for the possible improvement of society (Kakar, 2011).
Government expenditures play important roles in the functioning of developed, developing economies and
underdeveloped economies alike. It reduces negative impact of market failure on the economy. Government
spend money in an economy to supply goods and services that the private sector would fail to do, such as
public goods, defense, roads and bridges; merit goods, such as hospitals and schools; and welfare payments
and benefits, including unemployment and disability benefit and also train needed manpower to drive
smooth economic operations and enhance productivity that births economic growth and development
(Onifade et al., 2020).
Over the years, the Nigerian government in its efforts to drive economic growth and development has
employed diverse macroeconomic policy options (both monetary and fiscal policies), to put the economy
on the path of stable growth. A detailed look at the trend of economic variables in Nigeria reveals that the
country is still grappling with fluctuating economic imbalances evidenced by inconsistent growth rates,
high level of inflation, unemployment, illiteracy and poverty amongst others.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN, 2020) shows that government expenditure (capital and recurrent) has been
on the increase in the last three decades. However, while government expenditure has continued to increase,
due to increased demand for public utilities, it is quite unfortunate that these expenditures have not
translated to meaningful growth and development, as Nigeria is ranked among the poorest countries in the
world. Nigeria human development index (PCI) value of 0.534 for 2018 puts the country in the low human
development category, positioning it at 158 out of 189 countries and territories, and the economy is defined
by lack of infrastructure, poor access to medical facilities, low standard of living, low level of education,
among others. Also, macroeconomic indicators like balance of payments, import obligations, inflation rate,
national savings, and exchange rate reveal that Nigeria has not fared well in the last couple of years
(Olugbenga & Owoye, 2007).
It is expected that increase in government expenditure on socio-economic and physical infrastructure
promote economic growth. For example, expenditure on infrastructure such as roads, communications,
power, etc., will reduce production costs, increase private sector investment and profitability of firms, thus
accelerate economic growth. However, there is no consistent scholarly position on the effect of government
expenditure on economic growth and developments. Nnamdi (2013) found positive impact of government
expenditure on economic growth; while Egbetunde and Fasanya (2013) found negative relationship
between public spending and economic growth. Okoro (2013) and Udoffia and Godson (2010) on their part,
concluded that government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on economic growth; Maku
(2014) argued that government expenditure has positive, but insignificant effect on economic growth.
In lieu of these contested claims, this study opts to further investigate whether or not increased public
spending influence economic growth. The study focuses on Nigeria, and closely examined government
expenditure and indicators of economic growth for a period of 40 years (1981-2021). The study formulated
the following null hypotheses to guide data collection, analyses and interpretation.
Ho1: There is no significant relationship between government recurrent expenditure (GREX) and real gross
domestic product (RGDP) in Nigeria.
Ho2: There is no significant relationship between government capital expenditure (GCEX) and real gross
domestic product (RGDP) in Nigeria.
Ho3: There is no significant relationship between inflation rate (INFR) and real gross domestic product
(RGDP) in Nigeria.
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Nigerian Journal of Management Sciences Vol. 24, Issue 2b August 2023
LITERATURE REVIEW
Government Expenditure
Government expenditure describes resources (mostly financial) spent by the government to provide and
maintain public institutions, the economy and the society. Government expenditure usually tend to increase
with time as the economy becomes large and more developed or as a result of increase in its scope of
activities. Government capital and recurrent budget in classified as one of the major types of budgets in an
economy. It is sometimes referred to as revenue budget and it covers recurrent items or expenditure.
According to Murtala and Taiwo (2011), government spending is a fiscal instrument which serves a useful
purpose in the process of controlling inflation, unemployment, balance of payment disequilibrium, and
depression. Government spending increases aggregate demand. Production and supply of goods and
services flow in the same direction. Owing to this fact, increase in supply of goods and services coupled
with a rise in aggregate demand exerts a downward pressure on unemployment and depression. In Nigeria,
the federal government’s expenditure is categorically divided into capital and recurrent expenditures.
Recurrent expenditure consists government expenditure on administration such as wages, salaries, interest
on loan, maintenance, etc.; while capital expenditure goes to projects like roads, airport, health, education,
electricity generation, water etc. capital expenditures are investments with multiplier effects on the
economy in terms of public benefits government expenditure is therefore an important tool that brings about
egalitarian, society through the provision of welfare facilities (Ogba, 1999).
Economic Growth
In simple terms, economic growth refers to increase in aggregate production in an economy that leads to
increase in income, improve consumers’ purchasing power, and raise quality of life. Result in improved
quality of life and ensures that everyone has access to their basic requirement; and also have opportunity to
make choices (Igwe & Ateke, 2019). Economic growth is measured by increase in a country’s total output
or real GDP. GDP of a country is the total value of all final goods and services produced within a country
over a period of time. Therefore, an increase in GDP is the increase in a country’s production. Most
developed economies experience slower economic growth as compared to developing countries.
Government Expenditure and Economic Growth
Over the years, the size, structure and growth of government expenditure have increased immensely and
has become more complex. Modern political developments continue to instigate expenditure growth, thus
the challenge of raising additional and identifying alternative sources of revenue to meet the ever-increasing
needs of governance have made it more imperative to take a more focused look at government activities,
especially its expenditures. Economic growth is an increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods
and services, compared from one period of time to another. Economic growth is an important macro-
economic objective because it enables increased living standards, improved tax revenues and helps to create
new jobs (Olanrewaju & Funlayo, 2021).
Over the years, government expenditure has come to be regarded as an important policy tool for restoring
equilibrium in an economy after disturbances. If an economy is undergoing deflationary pressures
government expenditure serve as a fiscal tool to reduce such pressure. Deflation is a situation whereby an
economy operate below full employment of resources. That is, aggregate demand is less than output
produced at full employment level. When there is a deflation, consumers’ expenses fall, and this leads to a
fall in price level. Hence, a fall in the investible fund by organizations (Felicia & Charles, 2020).
Deflation usually leads to loss of employment since in efforts to reduce wastage of resource, firms cut down
on their production and lay workers off. To remedy deflationary pressures, governments apply expansionary
fiscal policy such as increasing public investment and expenditure or reduce tax through the central bank.
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Government also implement expansionary monetary policies such as reducing the rate of interest which
provides an incentive for companies to obtain loanable funds and discourage savings. The reduction in tax
coupled with increase in government expenditure close deflationary gap in the economy and bring it up to
operate at full employment level (Mahara, 2021).
Government expenditure can also be used to remedy inflation. An economy is said to be experiencing
inflationary pressure when aggregate demand is more than output produced at full employment. During
inflation there is rise in general price level. To correct this position, government usually apply
contractionary fiscal policies. This may be done directly by decreasing its expenditure or indirectly by
increasing taxes. Increase in tax reduce consumers’ purchases or reduces aggregate demand so that there is
a balance between demand and supply of commodities (Egbelonu & Ubechu, 2018).
Previous studies provide conflicting reports on the influence of government expenditure on economic
growth. For example, Mahara (2021) investigated money supply, inflation, capital expenditure and
economic growth in Nepal and report that money supply, inflation, and capital expenditure are major issues
of consideration for policymakers in developing countries given the need to spark internal demand and to
counter government’s massive fiscal obligations to alleviate poverty and achieve sustainable economic
growth. The empirical findings of the study show that there is a significant long-run positive relationship
between money supply, capital expenditure, and economic growth.
Olanrewaju and Funlayo (2021) examined government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria and
Angola. The study reported that the three main government expenditure components (Health expenditure,
education expenditure, and capital investment expenditure) affect economic growth in Nigeria and Angola,
but found no evidence of long-run relationships between government expenditure and economic growth.
The study also reveals the validation of Wagner’s theory between economic growth and expenditure on
health in both Nigeria and Angola. The study confirmed that government expenditure stimulate economic
growth in both Nigeria and Angola.
In the study of Felicia and Charles (2020) on impact of government expenditure, savings, and FDI on
economic growth in Nigeria from 1995 to 2018, it was found that government expenditure, savings, FDI
significantly impact economic growth. Onifade et al. (2020) on their part examined impact of government
expenditure on economic growth with respect to capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure and the
government fiscal expansion in line with support for budgetary allocations to various sectors in the context
of the Nigerian economy. The study found a level relationship between public spending and economic
growth in Nigeria. Incisively, recurrent expenditure of government was found to have significantly negative
impact on economic growth while the positive impact of public capital expenditure on economic growth
over the period of the study was not significant.
Similarly, Lawrence (2019) submitted that a negative relationship exists between government expenditure
and economic growth which means that unguided consumptions and spending of public funds could
diminish the capacity for productive investment thereby impeding growth. Further, Egbelonu and Ubechu
(2018) examined the relationship between government expenditure and Nigeria’s economic growth using
time series data collected from 1970 to 2015. The variables considered in the study are GDP, total
expenditure on Administration, total expenditure on economic services, total expenditure on social and
community services, and total expenditure on transfers. The results of the analysis showed that all the
variables of government expenditure had positive significant relationship with GDP except total
expenditure on economic services which had negative insignificant relationship with GDP, while the joint
test showed that all the variables had positive significant impact on GDP; and bi-directional causality
between government expenditure and GDP.
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Theoretical Framework
The foundational theory of this study is theory of government expenditure (TGE). TGE was propounded
by English economists, John Maynard Keynes who popularized the use of government expenditure as a
stabilization tool. Keynes (1930) argue insufficient total demand brings input and employment below their
potential levels; and that if demand could be increased, output and employment could be expended and the
economy would return to fall employment. Keynes (1930) believe this could be achieved with expansionary
fiscal policy.
TGE argues that rather than balancing its budget during deflation, government should increase spending,
reduce taxes, and shift its budget towards a deficit. Thus, higher levels of government spending would
directly increase total demand. Also, lower taxes would increase after-tax income of households, and
increase their purchasing power, which would in turn, stimulate total demand. Thus, the Keynesian
prescription to cure a recession was a larger budget deficit.
In contrast, if an economy is experiencing inflation during an economic boom, TGE call for restrictive fiscal
policy to temper excessive demand. In this case, reductions in government spending, higher taxes, and
shifting the budget toward a surplus would reduce total demand and help to fight inflation. Thus, TGE reject
the view that government budget should be balanced. Instead, it argue that appropriate budgetary policy
depend on economic conditions.
In furtherance of TGE, Musgrave (). observe change in income elasticity of demand for public service in
three ranges of per capita income, and posits that at low levels of per capita income, demand for public
services tends to be very low, in developing countries because such income is devoted to satisfying primary
needs (food, clothing and shelter). In the view of Musgrave (), when per capita income starts to rise above
the levels of low income, demand for service supplied by the public sector such as health, education and
transport starts to rise, thereby forcing government to increase expenditures on them. Finally, at a high level
of per capita income in developed countries, the rate of public sector growth tends to fall as more basic
wants are satisfied.
METHODOLOGY
The ex-post-facto research design is adopted in this study. Ex-post-facto research is one in which groups
with qualities that already exist are compared on some dependent variable (Nachmias & Nachmias, 1976).
Secondary data were used and sourced from the CBN’s (CBN) statistical bulletin. The independent variable
in the study is government expenditure. It is proxied by government capital expenditure (GCE), government
recurrent expenditure (GRE) and inflation rate (INFR). The dependent variable in the study is economic
growth. It is measured using real gross domestic product (RGDP).
Model Specification
Building on existing theoretical and empirical literature, this study perceives a causal relationship between
government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria, hence, a multiple regression model is specified
to forge a link between the dependent (RGDP) and the independent variables (GCE, GRE and INFR) for
the period of 1981-2021. The model expressed economic growth as a function of GCE, GRE and INFR.
The model is represented below in econometric form to make the equation sufficient for empirical analysis.
RGDP = β0 + β1GCEX + β2GREX + β3INFR + Ut ……………………………. (1)
Where:
Real GDP = Real Gross Domestic Product
GCEX = Government Capital Expenditure
GREX = Government Recurrent Expenditure
INFR = Inflation Rate
β0 = Constant Parameter
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β1, β2, β3, = Estimates
Ut = Error term
In this study, inflation rate is used as a check variable.
A priori Expectations
A priori expectation involves an examination of the signs and magnitude of the estimated parameters to
determine other conformity with theoretical expectations (Egbetunde & Fasanya, 2013). Theoretically,
increase in government expenditure should lead to a corresponding rise in economic growth. Thus, the
parameters β1, β2 and β3 are expected to be positively related to RGDP. In other words, government capital
expenditure, government recurrent expenditure and inflation rate (check variable) are expected to have a
positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). i.e. β1, β2 and β3 > 0.
According to Baridam (2001), the use of a wrong data analysis tool will most likely lead to wrong
interpretation and drawing invalid conclusions. Hence, to empirically carry out the analysis, Unit root test,
cointegration test and ARDL ECM tests were carried out. Time series data were subjected to the regression
analysis to test for the relationship between the variables of the study.
DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
Table 1: Time series data on real gross domestic product, government’s capital expenditure, government’s
recurrent expenditure and inflation rate for the period 1981 – 2021.
Year RGDP (₦’B) GCE (₦’B) GRE ((₦’B) INFR (%)
1981 15,258.00 6.6 4.8 9.97
1982 14,985.08 6.4 5.5 20.81
1983 13,849.73 4.9 4.8 7.70
1984 13,779.26 4.1 5.8 23.21
1985 14,953.91 5.5 7.6 17.82
1986 15,237.99 8.5 7.7 7.44
1987 15,263.93 6.4 15.6 5.72
1988 16,215.37 8.3 19.4 11.29
1989 17,294.68 15.0 26.0 54.51
1990 19,305.63 24.0 36.2 50.47
1991 19,199.06 28.3 38.2 7.36
1992 19,620.19 39.8 53.0 13.01
1993 19,927.99 54.5 136.7 44.59
1994 19,979.12 70.9 90.0 57.17
1995 20,353.20 121.1 127.6 57.03
1996 21,177.92 212.9 124.3 72.84
1997 21,789.10 269.7 158.6 29.27
1998 22,332.87 309.0 178.1 8.53
1999 22,449.41 498.0 449.7 10.00
2000 23,688.28 239.5 461.6 6.62
2001 25,267.54 438.7 579.3 6.93
2002 28,957.71 321.4 696.8 18.87
2003 31,709.45 241.7 984.3 12.88
2004 35,020.55 351.3 1,110.8 14.03
2005 37,474.95 519.5 1,321.3 15.00
2006 39,995.50 552.4 1,390.2 17.86
2007 42,922.41 759.3 1,589.3 8.23
2008 46,012.52 960.9 2,117.4 5.39
2009 49,856.10 1,152.8 2,128.0 11.58
2010 54,612.26 883.9 3,109.4 12.56
2011 57,511.04 918.5 3,314.5 13.72
2012 59,929.89 874.7 3,325.2 10.84
2013 63,218.72 1,108.4 3,689.1 12.22
2014 67,152.79 783.1 3,426.9 8.48
2015 69,023.93 818.4 3,831.9 8.06
2016 72,799.56 653.6 4,160.1 9.01
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2017 75,952.86 1,242.3 4,780.0 15.68
2018 65,068.49 1,682.1 5,675.2 16.52
2019 66,751.92 2,289.0 6,997.2 12.09
2020 68,435.36 1,614.9 8,188.8 11.40
2021 70,118.79 2,522.5 9,145.2 13.25
Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin (2021)
Unit Root Tests
The unit root tests test for the stationarity of the variables employed. Any issue of non-stationarity of any
variable is corrected before being used for the analysis to avoid spurious regression results. This test is carried
out using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Test.
Table 2: Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit Root Results
Coefficient At levels (Prob) First Difference (Prob) Remarks
RGDP 0.9913 0.0001 I(1) Stationary
GCE 0.9993 0.0000 I(1)Stationary
GRE 1.0000 0.0038 I(1)Stationary
INFR 0.0130 I(0) Stationary
Source: E views Output (2023).
Table 2 shows that the variables have mixed results of stationarity at levels and first difference
thereby meeting the required condition to use the ARDL method of analysis in testing the
hypotheses of the research study.
Table 3: Results of Bounds Tests for Cointegration
Model: RGDP
Asymptotic:
n=1000
F-statistic 8.001427 10% 3.47 4.45
K 3 5% 4.01 5.07
2.5% 4.52 5.62
1% 5.17 6.36
Source: E views Output (2023).
The bounds tests for cointegration ascertains whether there is a long-term relationship between the variables
used in the model. As shown in Table 3, the results for the model show that there is a long-term relationship
between the dependent and the independent variables. This is confirmed with the f-stat is higher than the
lower and upper bounds of the results.
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Table 4: ARDL ECM Results
ARDL Error Correction Regression
Dependent Variable: D(RGDP)
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 0, 0, 0)
Case 5: Unrestricted Constant and Unrestricted Trend
Date: 03/03/23 Time: 21:08
Sample: 1981 2021
Included observations: 40
ECM Regression
Case 5: Unrestricted Constant and Unrestricted Trend
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 483.5741 711.7048 0.679459 0.5014
GRE 78.99327 24.93342 3.168168 0.0000
INFR 47.15741 21.43048 2.200483 0.0004
GCE 116.1899 42.17046 2.755243 0.0000
@TREND 307.9229 93.10598 3.307230 0.0022
CointEq(-1)* -0.110932 0.037583 -2.951625 0.0057
R-squared 0.232901 Mean dependent var 1371.520
Adjusted R-squared 0.191436 S.D. dependent var 2453.554
S.E. of regression 2206.240 Akaike info criterion 18.30801
Sum squared resid 1.80E+08 Schwarz criterion 18.43467
Log likelihood -363.1601 Hannan-Quinn criter. 18.35380
F-statistic 5.616831 Durbin-Watson stat 2.077794
Prob(F-statistic) 0.007409
* p-value incompatible with t-Bounds distribution.
Source: E views Output (2023).
The results of the analysis show that the goodness-of-fit (R-Square) is 0.23. This means that 23% of the
changes in the dependent variable is explained by the changes in the independent variables whilst 77% is
taken care of by the stochastic term (all other variables that affect the dependent variable but were not
included in the model). The model is also statistically significant based on the probability value of f-stat
which is 0.007409.
Table 4 showing result of the analysis using the ECM indicates that RGDP is positively related to GRE. As
GRE increases by a unit, RGDP increases by 78.99 and vice versa. GRE is shown to be statistically
significant at 5% level of significance. We therefore reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is a
significant relationship between GRE and RGDP over the period of study. Table 4 also indicates that RGDP
is positively related to GCE. As GCE increases by a unit, RGDP increases by 116.18 and vice versa. GCE
is shown to be statistically significant at 5% level of significance. We therefore reject the null hypothesis
and conclude that there is a significant relationship between GCE and RGDP over the period of study.
Further, Table 4 shows positive relationship between RGDP and INFR. The analysis reveals that as INFR
increases by a unit, RGDP increases by 47.15 and vice versa. INFR is statistically significant at 5% level
of significance. We therefore reject the null hypothesis and conclude that there is a significant relationship
between the INFR and RGDP over the period of study.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
This study examined the effect of government expenditure on Nigeria’s economic growth from 1981-2021.
It explored the trends of RGDP, GCE, GRE and INFR over the period and their impact on Nigeria’s
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economic growth. We employed the unit root test, cointegration test and the ARDL ECM model of analysis
to analyze the collected time series data. Based on the results of the analysis, the study concludes that there
is a positive significant relationship between aggregate public expenditure and Nigeria’s economic growth
over the period of study. Thus, we recommends that policy makers should increase and sustain capital
expenditures so as to improve the economy in the long run; policy makers should study recurrent
expenditures in order to cut down on wasteful spending, since they impact the economy significantly. This
may require proper accounting and blocking of leakages that drain the economy. The study also
recommends that monetary authorities must ensure that inflation rate is managed in ways that makes it
contribute positively to the economy.
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