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Probability Problems and Scenarios

1) This document contains summaries of probability problems involving government lotteries, contracting polio from diapers, terrorists on planes, identifying taxi cab colors in low visibility conditions, and the Monty Hall problem game show dilemma. 2) One problem discusses choosing lottery numbers and winning prizes, another analyzes the extremely low probability of contracting polio from a soiled diaper, and a third jokes about the improbability of two bombs being on the same plane. 3) A fourth problem involves identifying the color of a taxi involved in a hit and run based on an eyewitness who is correct 80% of the time, and the final problem presents the classic Monty Hall three-

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Saurav Goyal
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4 views7 pages

Probability Problems and Scenarios

1) This document contains summaries of probability problems involving government lotteries, contracting polio from diapers, terrorists on planes, identifying taxi cab colors in low visibility conditions, and the Monty Hall problem game show dilemma. 2) One problem discusses choosing lottery numbers and winning prizes, another analyzes the extremely low probability of contracting polio from a soiled diaper, and a third jokes about the improbability of two bombs being on the same plane. 3) A fourth problem involves identifying the color of a taxi involved in a hit and run based on an eyewitness who is correct 80% of the time, and the final problem presents the classic Monty Hall three-

Uploaded by

Saurav Goyal
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Probability: Extra Problems

Arun Kumar, Ravindra Gokhale, and Nagarajan Krishnamurthy


Quantitative Techniques-I, Term I, 2012 Indian Institute of Management Indore

Government Run Lottery Systems

In a standard government run lottery in Europe and North America, you choose 6 out of 49 numbers (1 through 49). You win the biggest prize if these 6 are drawn. ( The prize money is divided between all those who choose the lucky numbers. If no one wins, then most of the prize money is put back into next weeks lottery.) You are oered two tickets (1,2,3,4,5,6) or (39,36,32,21,14, and 3). Do you prefer A, B, or are you indierent between the two?

Polio from diapers

Southampton, England: A man contracted polio from the soiled diaper of his niece, who had been vaccinated against the disease just days before. The probability of a person contracting polio from soiled diapers is literally one in three million, said consultant Martin Wale. What did Dr. Wale mean?

Terrorists
This is a story about a philosopher, the late Max Black. One of Blacks students was to go overseas to do some research on Immanuel Kant. She was afraid that a terrorist would put a bomb on the plane. Black could not convince her that risk was negligible. So he argued as follows: Black: Well, at least you agree that it is almost impossible that two people should take bombs on your plane? Student: Sure. Black: Then you should take a bomb on the plane. The risk that there would be another bomb on your plane is negligible. Whats the joke?

Taxicabs
You have been called to jury duty in a town where there are two taxi companies, Green cabs ltd. and Blue Taxi Inc. Blue Taxi uses cars painted blue; Green Cabs uses green cars. Green Cabs dominates the market, with 85% of the taxis on the road. On a misty winter night a taxi sideswiped another car and drove o. A witness says it was a blue cab. The witness is tested under conditions like those of the night of the accident, and 80% of the time she correctly reports the color of the cab that is seen. That is, regardless of whether she is shown a blue or a green cab in misty evening light, she gets the color right 80% of the time. You conclude on the basis of the information:

Taxicabs

The probability that the sideswiper was blue is 0.8. It is more likely that the sideswiper was blue, but the probability is less than 0.8. It is just as probable that the sideswiper was green as that it was blue. It was more likely than not that the sideswiper was green.

Monty Hall Problem

In the Monty Hall three doors problem, a contestant on a game show is asked to choose between three doors. Behind the two doors, there are goats. Behind the third door, there is a car. Once you picked one of the doors, the host of the game show opens one of remaining doors that has goats behind it. The host then gives the contestant a chance to switch to the remaining unopened door. What should the contestant do?

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