Chapter 7 - Swaps
Chapter 7 - Swaps
Introduction
The birth of the over-the-counter swap market can be traced to a currency swap negotiated
between IBM and the World Bank in 1981. The World Bank had borrowings denominated in
US dollars while IBM had borrowings denominated in German deutsche marks and Swiss
francs. The World Bank (which was restricted in the deutsche mark and Swiss franc borrowing
it could do directly) agreed to make interest payments on IBM’s borrowings while IBM in
return agreed to make interest payments on the World Bank’s borrowings.
Since that first transaction in 1981, the swap market has seen phenomenal growth. Swaps
now occupy a position of central importance in over-the-counter derivatives market. The
statistics produced by the Bank for International Settlements show that about 58.5% of all
over-the-counter derivatives are interest rate swaps and a further 4% are currency swaps.
Most of this chapter is devoted to discussing these two types of swap. Other swaps are briefly
reviewed at the end of the chapter and discussed in more detail in later chapters.
A swap is an over-the-counter agreement between two companies to exchange cash flows
in the future. The agreement defines the dates when the cash flows are to be paid and the
way in which they are to be calculated. Usually, the calculation of the cash flows involves the
future value of an interest rate, an exchange rate, or other market variable.
The most popular (plain vanilla) interest rate swap is one where LIBOR is exchanged for a
fixed rate of interest. When valuing swaps, we require a ‘‘risk-free’’ discount rate for cash
flows. As mentioned in Section 4.1, LIBOR has traditionally been used as a proxy for the ‘‘risk-
free’’ discount rate. As it happens, this greatly simplifies valuation of plain vanilla interest
rate swaps because the discount rate is then the same as the reference interest rate in the
swap. Since the 2008 credit crisis, other risk-free discount rates have been used, particularly
for collateralized transactions. In this chapter, we assume that LIBOR is used as the risk-free
discount rate.
Nature of Swaps
A swap is an agreement to exchange cash flows at specified future times according to certain
specified rules. Plain Vanilla Interest rate swap:
• Receive fix rate on principal
• Pay floating rate (LIBOR) on principal
Basis Swap
Both paying floating rates (but different payment frequencies)
Example: Intel and Microsoft (MS) Transform an Asset (Figure 7.3, page 178)
The swap could have the effect of transforming an asset earning a fixed rate of interest into
an asset earning a floating rate of interest. Suppose that Microsoft owns $100 million in
bonds that will provide interest at 4.7% per annum over the next 3 years.
After Microsoft has entered into the swap, it has the following three sets of cash flows:
1. It receives 4.7% on the bonds.
2. It receives LIBOR under the terms of the swap.
3. It pays 5% under the terms of the swap.
These three sets of cash flows net out to an interest rate inflow of LIBOR minus 30 basis
points. Thus, one possible use of the swap for Microsoft is to transform an asset earning 4.7%
into an asset earning LIBOR minus 30 basis points.
Next, consider Intel. The swap could have the effect of transforming an asset earning a
floating rate of interest into an asset earning a fixed rate of interest. Suppose that Intel has
an investment of $100 million that yields LIBOR minus 20 basis points. After it has entered
into the swap, it has the following three sets of cash flows:
1. It receives LIBOR minus 20 basis points on its investment.
2. It pays LIBOR under the terms of the swap.
3. It receives 5% under the terms of the swap.
These three sets of cash flows net out to an interest rate inflow of 4.8%. Thus, one possible
use of the swap for Intel is to transform an asset earning LIBOR minus 20 basis points into an
asset earning 4.8%.
Figure 7.3: Microsoft & Intel use the swap to transform an asset
Role of Financial Intermediary
Usually two nonfinancial companies such as Intel and Microsoft do not get in touch directly
to arrange a swap in the way indicated in Figures 7.2 and 7.3. They each deal with a bank or
other financial institution. ‘‘Plain vanilla’’ LIBOR-for-fixed swaps on US interest rates are
usually structured so that the financial institution earns about 3 or 4 basis points (0.03% or
0.04%) on a pair of offsetting transactions.
Figure 7.4: Interest rate swap from Figure 7.2 when financial institution is involved
Financial institution is responsible for paying out losses
Figure 7.4 shows what the role of the financial institution might be in the situation in Figure
7.2. The financial institution enters into two offsetting swap transactions with Intel and
Microsoft. Assuming that both companies honour their obligations, the financial institution
is certain to make a profit of 0.03% (3 basis points) per year multiplied by the notional
principal of $100 million. This amounts to $30 000 per year for the 3-year period. Microsoft
ends up borrowing at 5.115% (instead of 5.1%, as in Figure 7.2), and Intel ends up borrowing
at LIBOR plus 21.5 basis points (instead of at LIBOR plus 20 basis points, as in Figure 7.2).
Figure 7.5: Interest rate swap from Figure 7.3 when financial institution is involved
Figure 7.5 illustrates the role of the financial institution in the situation in Figure 7.3. The
swap is the same as before and the financial institution is certain to make a profit of 3 basis
points if neither company defaults. Microsoft ends up earning LIBOR minus 31.5 basis points
(instead of LIBOR minus 30 basis points, as in Figure 7.3), and Intel ends up earning 4.785%
(instead of 4.8%, as in Figure 7.3).
Note:
In each case the financial institution has entered into two separate transactions: one with
Intel and the other with Microsoft. In most instances, Intel will not even know that the
financial institution has entered into an offsetting swap with Microsoft, and vice versa. If one
of the companies defaults, the financial institution still has to honour its agreement with the
other company. The 3-basis-point spread earned by the financial institution is partly to
compensate it for the risk that one of the two companies will default on the swap payments.
Market Makers
In practice, it is unlikely that two companies will contact a financial institution at the same
time and want to take opposite positions in exactly the same swap. For this reason, many
large financial institutions act as market makers for swaps. This means that they are
prepared to enter into a swap without having an offsetting swap with another counterparty.
Market makers must carefully quantify and hedge the risks they are taking. Bonds, forward
rate agreements, and interest rate futures are examples of the instruments that can be used
for hedging by swap market makers. Table 7.3 shows quotes for plain vanilla US dollar swaps
that might be posted by a market maker. As mentioned earlier, the bid–offer spread is 3 to 4
basis points. The average of the bid and offer fixed rates is known as the swap rate. This is
shown in the final column of Table 7.3.
Table 7.3: Bid & offer fixed rates in the swap market & swap rates (percent per annum)
Quotes By a Swap Market Maker
• Consider Table 7.3
o “Bid rate”: Market maker pays fix rate & receives floating rate.
o “Offer rate”: Market maker pays floating rate & receives fix rate.
o “Swap rate”: average of bid and offer rate.
• It can be assumed that the swap rate is the fix rate that makes the value of the swap equal
to 0, i.e. the fix rate is such that:
𝐵𝑓𝑖𝑥 = 𝐵𝑓𝑙
• Consider Table 7.2 where the swap rate of 5% should have been determined such that the
values of the two bonds were equal on 5 March 2014.
• Usually the LIBOR zero rates are used to discount back the cash flows while the
corresponding LIBOR forward rates for every 6-month period, determined from the LIBOR
zero rates, are used to calculate the LIBOR interest (floating) amounts & hence 𝑩𝒇𝒍 .
• Remember on 5 March 2014 the future LIBOR rates for each 6-months period were not
known.
Confirmations
• Confirmations specify the terms of a transaction
• The International Swaps and Derivatives has developed Master Agreements that can be
used to cover all agreements between two counterparties
• Governments now require central clearing to be used for most standardized derivatives
The Comparative-Advantage Argument
An explanation commonly put forward to explain the popularity of swaps concerns
comparative advantage. Consider the use of an interest rate swap to transform a liability.
Some companies, it is argued, have a comparative advantage when borrowing in fixed-rate
markets, whereas other companies have a comparative advantage when borrowing in
floating-rate markets. To obtain a new loan, it makes sense for a company to go to the market
where it has a comparative advantage. As a result, the company may borrow fixed when it
wants floating, or borrow floating when it wants fixed. The swap is used to transform a fixed-
rate loan into a floating-rate loan, and vice versa.
Example
Suppose that two companies, AAACorp and BBBCorp, both wish to borrow $10 million for 5
years and have been offered the rates shown in Table 7.4. AAACorp has a AAA credit rating;
BBBCorp has a BBB credit rating. Because it has a worse credit rating than AAACorp, BBBCorp
pays a higher rate of interest than AAACorp in both fixed and floating markets.
Table 7.4: Borrowing rates that provide a basis for the comparative-advantage argument
• AAACorp wants to borrow floating
• BBBCorp wants to borrow fixed
Credit Rating
The spreads between the rates offered to AAACorp and BBBCorp are a reflection of the
extent to which BBBCorp is more likely than AAACorp to default. During the next 6 months,
there is very little chance that either AAACorp or BBBCorp will default. As we look further
ahead, the probability of a default by a company with a relatively low credit rating (such as
BBBCorp) is liable to increase faster than the probability of a default by a company with a
relatively high credit rating (such as AAACorp). This is why the spread between the 5-year
rates is greater than the spread between the 6-month rates.
Sustainability
After negotiating a floating-rate loan at LIBOR + 0.6% and entering into the swap shown in
Figure 7.7, BBBCorp appears to obtain a fixed-rate loan at 4.97%. The arguments just
presented show that this is not really the case. In practice, the rate paid is 4.97% only if
BBBCorp can continue to borrow floating-rate funds at a spread of 0.6% over LIBOR. If, for
example, the creditworthiness of BBBCorp declines so that the floating-rate loan is rolled
over at LIBOR + 1.6%, the rate paid by BBBCorp increases to 5.97%. The market expects that
BBBCorp’s spread over 6-month LIBOR will on average rise during the swap’s life. BBBCorp’s
expected average borrowing rate when it enters into the swap is therefore greater than
4.97%.
At this stage it is appropriate to examine the nature of swap rates and the relationship
between swap and LIBOR markets. We explained in Section 4.1 that LIBOR is the rate of
interest at which AA-rated banks borrow for periods up to 12 months from other banks. Also,
as indicated in Table 7.3, a swap rate is the average of (a) the fixed rate that a swap market
maker is prepared to pay in exchange for receiving LIBOR (its bid rate) and (b) the fixed rate
that it is prepared to receive in return for paying LIBOR (its offer rate). Like LIBOR rates, swap
rates are not risk-free lending rates. However, they are reasonably close to risk-free in normal
market conditions. A financial institution can earn the 5-year swap rate on a certain principal
by doing the following:
1. Lend the principal for the first 6 months to a AA borrower and then relend it for successive
6-month periods to other AA borrowers; and
2. Enter into a swap to exchange the LIBOR income for the 5-year swap rate.
This shows that the 5-year swap rate is an interest rate with a credit risk corresponding to
the situation where 10 consecutive 6-month LIBOR loans to AA companies are made.
Similarly the 7-year swap rate is an interest rate with a credit risk corresponding to the
situation where 14 consecutive 6-month LIBOR loans to AA companies are made. Swap rates
of other maturities can be interpreted analogously. Note that 5-year swap rates are less than
5-year AA borrowing rates. It is much more attractive to lend money for successive 6-month
periods to borrowers who are always AA at the beginning of the periods than to lend it to
one borrower for the whole 5 years when all we can be sure of is that the borrower is AA at
the beginning of the 5 years. In discussing the above points, Collin-Dufesne and Solnik refer
to swap rates as ‘‘continually refreshed’’ LIBOR rates.
Determining LIBOR/Swap Zero Rates
Using Swap Rates to Bootstrap the LIBOR/Swap Zero Curve
• Consider a new swap where the fixed rate is the swap rate.
• When principals are added to both sides on the final payment date the swap is the
exchange of a fixed rate bond for a floating rate bond.
• The floating-rate rate bond is worth par. The swap is worth zero. The fixed-rate bond
must therefore also be worth par.
• This shows that swap rates define par yield bonds that can be used to bootstrap the LIBOR
(or LIBOR/swap) zero curve.
Example 7.3
Under the terms of the swap, a financial institution has agreed to receive 6-month LIBOR and
pay 3% per annum (with semiannual compounding) on a notional principal of $100 million.
The swap has a remaining life of 1.25 years. The LIBOR rates with continuous compounding
for 3-month, 9-month, and 15-month maturities are 2.8%, 3.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. The
6-month LIBOR rate at the last payment date was 2.9% (with semiannual compounding).
The calculations are summarized in Table 7.6. The first row of the table shows the cash flows
that will be exchanged in 3 months. These have already been determined. The fixed rate of
1.5% will lead to a cash outflow of 100 0:030 0:5 = $1:5 million. The floating rate of 2.9%
(which was set 3 months ago) will lead to a cash inflow of 100 0:029 0:5 = $1:45 million. The
second row of the table shows the cash flows that will be exchanged in 9 months assuming
that forward rates are realized. The cash outflow is $1.5 million as before. To calculate the
cash inflow, we must first calculate the forward rate corresponding to the period between 3
and 9 months. From equation (4.5), this is
0.032 × 0.75 − 0.028 × 0.25
= 0.034
0.5
or 3.4% with continuous compounding. From equation (4.4), the forward rate becomes
3.429% with semiannual compounding. The cash inflow is therefore 100 × 0.03429 × 0.5 =
$1.7145 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛. The third row similarly shows the cash flows that will be exchanged in 15
months assuming that forward rates are realized. The discount factors for the three payment
dates are, respectively,
𝑒 −0.028(0.25) , 𝑒 −0.032(0.75) , 𝑒 −0.034(1.25)
The present value of the exchange in three months is – $0.0497 million. The values of the
FRAs corresponding to the exchanges in 9 months and 15 months are +$0.2094 and +$0.3519
million, respectively. The total value of the swap is +$0.5117 million. This is in agreement
with the value we calculated in Example 7.2 by decomposing the swap into bonds.
Table 7.6: Valuing swap in terms of FRAs. Floating cashflows are calculated by assuming
that forward rates will be realised.
Term Structure Effects
A swap is worth close to zero initially. This means that at the outset of a swap the sum of the
values of the FRAs underlying the swap is close to zero. It does not mean that the value of
each individual FRA is close to zero. In general, some FRAs will have positive values whereas
others have negative values.
Consider the FRAs underlying the swap between Microsoft and Intel in Figure 7.1:
• Value of FRA to Microsoft > 0 when forward interest rate > 5.0%
• Value of FRA to Microsoft = 0 when forward interest rate = 5.0%
• Value of FRA to Microsoft < 0 when forward interest rate < 5.0%.
Suppose that the term structure of interest rates is upward-sloping at the time the swap is
negotiated. This means that the forward interest rates increase as the maturity of the FRA
increases. Since the sum of the values of the FRAs is close to zero, the forward interest rate
must be less than 5.0% for the early payment dates and greater than 5.0% for the later
payment dates. The value to Microsoft of the FRAs corresponding to early payment dates is
therefore negative, whereas the value of the FRAs corresponding to later payment dates is
positive. If the term structure of interest rates is downward-sloping at the time the swap is
negotiated, the reverse is true. The impact of the shape of the term structure of interest rates
on the values of the forward contracts underlying a swap is illustrated in Figure 7.9.
Figure 7.9
Valuing of forward rate agreements underlying a swap as a function of maturity. In (a) the
term structure of interest rates is upward-sloping and we receive fixed, or it is downward-
sloping and we receive floating; in (b) the term structure of interest rates is upward-sloping
and we receive floating, or it is downward-sloping and we receive fixed.
Fixed-for-fixed Currency Swaps
Another popular type of swap is known as a fixed-for-fixed currency swap. This involves
exchanging principal and interest payments at a fixed rate in one currency for principal and
interest payments at a fixed rate in another currency.
A currency swap agreement requires the principal to be specified in each of the two
currencies. The principal amounts are usually exchanged at the beginning and at the end of
the life of the swap. Usually the principal amounts are chosen to be approximately
equivalent using the exchange rate at the swap’s initiation. When they are exchanged at the
end of the life of the swap, their values may be quite different.
• In an interest rate swap the principal is not exchanged.
• In a currency swap the principal is usually exchanged at the beginning and the end of the
swap’s life.
Illustration
Example
Consider a hypothetical 5-year currency swap agreement between IBM and British Petroleum
entered into on February 1, 2014. We suppose that IBM pays a fixed rate of interest of 5% in
sterling and receives a fixed rate of interest of 6% in dollars from British Petroleum. Interest
rate payments are made once a year and the principal amounts are $15 million and £10
million. This is termed a fixed-for-fixed currency swap because the interest rate in each
currency is at a fixed rate.
An agreement to pay 5% on a sterling principal of £10 000 000 & receive 6% on a US$ principal
of $15 000 000 every year for 5 years.
Figure 7.10: A currency swap
The swap is shown in Figure 7.10. Initially, the principal amounts flow in the opposite
direction to the arrows in Figure 7.10. The interest payments during the life of the swap and
the final principal payment flow in the same direction as the arrows. Thus, at the outset of
the swap, IBM pays $15 million and receives £10 million. Each year during the life of the swap
contract, IBM receives $0.90 million (= 6% of $15 million) and pays £0.50 million (= 5% of £10
million). At the end of the life of the swap, it pays a principal of £10 million and receives a
principal of $15 million. These cash flows are shown in Table 7.7.
Table 7.7 (pg 192): The Cashflows
Example
Suppose that IBM can issue $15 million of US dollar-denominated bonds at 6% interest. The
swap has the effect of transforming this transaction into one where IBM has borrowed £10
million at 5% interest. The initial exchange of principal converts the proceeds of the bond
issue from US dollars to sterling. The subsequent exchanges in the swap have the effect of
swapping the interest and principal payments from dollars to sterling.
Suppose that IBM can invest £10 million in the UK to yield 5% per annum for the next 5 years,
but feels that the US dollar will strengthen against sterling and prefers a US-dollar-
denominated investment. The swap has the effect of transforming the UK investment into a
$15 million investment in the US yielding 6%.
Comparative Advantage
Comparative Advantage May Be Real Because of Taxes
Suppose the 5-year fixed-rate borrowing costs to General Electric and Qantas Airways in US
dollars (USD) and Australian dollars (AUD) are as shown in Table 7.8.
• General Electric (GE) wants to borrow AUD (20 Million)
• Quantas wants to borrow USD (18 Million)
• Current exchange rate (USD per AUD) is 0.9000.
• Cost after adjusting for the differential impact of taxes
The data in the table suggest that Australian rates are higher than USD interest rates, and
also that GE is more creditworthy than Qantas, because it is offered a more favourable rate
of interest in both currencies. From the viewpoint of a swap trader, the interesting aspect of
Table 7.8 is that the spreads between the rates paid by GE and Qantas in the two markets
are not the same. Qantas pays 2% more than GE in the US dollar market and only 0.4% more
than GE in the AUD market. GE has a comparative advantage in the USD market, whereas
Qantas Airways has a comparative advantage in the AUD market. One possible source of
comparative advantage is tax. GE’s position might be such that USD borrowings lead to lower
taxes on its worldwide income than AUD borrowings. Qantas’ position might be the reverse.
GE and Qantas Airways each borrow in the market where they have a comparative
advantage; that is, GE borrows USD whereas Qantas borrows AUD. They then use a currency
swap to transform GE’s loan into an AUD loan and Qantas’ loan into a USD loan.
Figure 7.11 shows one way swaps might be entered into with a financial institution (FI). GE
borrows USD and Qantas borrows AUD. The effect of the swap is to transform the USD
interest rate of 5% per annum to an AUD interest rate of 6.9% per annum for GE. As a result,
GE is 0.7% per annum better off than it would be if it went directly to AUD markets. Similarly,
Qantas exchanges an AUD loan at 8% per annum for a USD loan at 6.3% per annum and ends
up 0.7% per annum better off than it would be if it went directly to USD markets. The FI gains
1.3% per annum on its USD cash flows and loses 1.1% per annum on its AUD flows. If we
ignore the difference between the two currencies, the financial institution makes a net gain
of 0.2% per annum. As predicted, the total gain to all parties is 1.6% per annum.
Figure 7.11: A currency swap motivated by comparative advantage
Each year the financial institution makes a gain of USD 234 000 (= 1.3% of 18 million) and
incurs a loss of AUD 220 000 (= 1.1% of 20 million). The financial institution can avoid any
foreign exchange risk by buying AUD 220 000 per annum in the forward market for each
year of the life of the swap, thus locking in a net gain in USD.
It is possible to redesign the swap so that the financial institution makes a 0.2% spread in
USD. Figures 7.12 and 7.13 present two alternatives. These alternatives are unlikely to be
used in practice because they do not lead to GE and Qantas being free of foreign exchange
risk.
In Figure 7.12, Qantas bears some foreign exchange risk because it pays 1.1% per annum in
AUD and pays 5.2% per annum in USD.
Figure 7.12: Alternative arrangement for currency swap: Qantas Airways bears some
foreign exchange risk
In Figure 7.13, General Electric bears some foreign exchange risk because it receives 1.1%
per annum in USD and pays 8% per annum in AUD.
Figure 7.13: Alternative arrangement for currency swap: General Electric bears some
foreign exchange risk.
Valuation of Fixed-for-fixed Currency Swaps
Like interest rate swaps, currency swaps can be valued either as the difference between 2
bonds or as a portfolio of forward contracts.
Solution:
The calculations are summarized in Table 7.9. In this case, the cash flows from the dollar bond
underlying the swap are as shown in the second column. The present value of the cash flows
using the dollar discount rate of 9% are shown in the third column. The cash flows from the
yen bond underlying the swap are shown in the fourth column of the table. The present value
of the cash flows using the yen discount rate of 4% are shown in the final column of the table.
𝑉𝑠𝑤𝑎𝑝 = 𝑆0 𝐵𝐹 − 𝐵𝐷
The value of the dollar bond, 𝐵𝐷 , is $9.6439 million.
The value of the yen bond, 𝐵𝐹 , is ¥1 230.55 million.
The value of the swap in dollars is therefore:
1 230.55
𝑉𝑠𝑤𝑎𝑝 = − 9.6439 = $1.5430 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛
110
Valuation as Portfolio of Forward Contracts
Each exchange of payments in a fixed-for-fixed currency swap is a forward foreign exchange
contract. Forward foreign exchange contracts were valued by assuming that forward
exchange rates are realized.
• The one-year, two-year and three-year forward exchange rates can be obtained using
𝑭𝟎 = 𝑆0 𝑒 (𝑟−𝑟𝑓)𝑇
• Where 𝑆0 = 0.009091, 𝑟 = 0.09, 𝑟𝑓 = 0.04 and 𝑇 = 1,2 and 3 i.e.
Credit Risk
• A swap is worth zero to a company initially
• At a future time its value is liable to be either positive or negative
• The company has credit risk exposure only when its value is positive
Some swaps are more likely to lead to credit risk exposure than others
Suppose that, sometime after the initiation of the transactions in Figure 7.4, the transaction
with Microsoft has a positive value to the financial institution, whereas the transaction with
Intel has a negative value. Suppose further that the financial institution has no other
derivatives transactions with these companies and that no collateral is posted. If Microsoft
defaults, the financial institution is liable to lose the whole of the positive value it has in this
transaction. To maintain a hedged position, it would have to find a third party willing to take
Microsoft’s position. To induce the third party to take the position, the financial institution
would have to pay the third party an amount roughly equal to the value of its contract with
Microsoft prior to the default.
Market Risk vs Credit Risk
A financial institution clearly has credit-risk exposure from a swap when the value of the swap
to the financial institution is positive. What happens when this value is negative and the
counterparty gets into financial difficulties? In theory, the financial institution could realize a
windfall gain, because a default would lead to it getting rid of a liability. In practice, it is likely
that the counterparty would choose to sell the transaction to a third party or rearrange its
affairs in some way so that its positive value in the transaction is not lost. The most realistic
assumption for the financial institution is therefore as follows. If the counterparty goes
bankrupt, there will be a loss if the value of the swap to the financial institution is positive,
and there will be no effect on the financial institution’s position if the value of the swap to
the financial institution is negative. This situation is summarized in Figure 7.14.
Central Clearing
Credit Default Swaps
Swaps & Forwards
• A swap can be regarded as a convenient way of packaging forward contracts.
• Although the swap contract is usually worth close to zero at the outset, each of the
underlying forward contracts are not worth zero.