Weekly Game Breakdowns - Super
Bowl
Bob Cunningham
January 29, 2008
Just one victory away.
The New England Patriots can stamp themselves
as the greatest team ever… or at the very least,
the team enjoying the greatest single-season of
all-time… if they can defeat the New York Giants
in Super Bowl XLII and finish the 2007 season at
19-0.
To be honest, it’s not the matchup I wanted or
thought we’d have. I was convinced Brett Favre
would direct Green Bay past the Giants in the
NFC Championship Game, and I consider a Pats-
Pack clash as a lot more fascinating. But Favre
was outplayed by much-maligned Eli Manning,
and the G-Men are the newest wild-card team to
make it to Super Sunday.
For me, the historical significance of what the
Patriots are trying to achieve is about the only
thing holding my interest. On a personal level, I
don’t particularly care for either team. I respect
both, especially New England, and what each has
accomplished to this point. But I don’t pull for
either one. Bill Belichick is a little too smug for
me, Tom Coughlin a bit too rough around the
edges.
Oh well, at least I can try to win a pool or two.
Enjoy the commercials!
2007 Picks Record Straight-up: 175-91 (66
percent)
2007 Picks Record Against-The-Spread: 135-
122-9 (52 percent)
Last Week: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS
Here’s how I see Super Bowl XLII:
NEW YORK GIANTS (13-6) at NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS (18-0)
Sunday, Feb. 3, 3:30 p.m. PT at Glendale, Ariz.
Line: Patriots favored by 12
Strongest Trends: The Giants have won their
last 10 road games, including three in the
postseason, and are 7-1 ATS overall in their last
eight games. The Patriots have won 18 straight
overall, but have failed to cover ATS in six of their
last seven.
Last Meeting: The Patriots edged the host
Giants, 38-35, in the regular season finale.
Giants Status Report: New York defeated the
host Green Bay Packers in OT, 23-20, to capture
the NFC title Sunday.
Patriots Status Report: The Patriots held off a
game but injury-plagued San Diego Chargers
club, 21-12, at home to win their fourth AFC
crown in the last seven years.
Super Bowl History: This will be the Giants’
fourth appearance in a Super Bowl. They
defeated Denver, 39-20, in Super Bowl XXI;
edged Buffalo, 20-19, in Super Bowl XXV; and
was routed by Baltimore, 34-7, in Super Bowl
XXXV. For New England, this is its sixth Super
Bowl appearance. After losing to Chicago, 46-10,
in Super Bowl XX and 35-21 to Green Bay and
Brett Favre in Super Bowl XXXI, the Patriots have
won in each of their last three appearances –
beating the St. Louis Rams, 20-17, in Super Bowl
XXXVI; Carolina, 32-29, in Super Bowl XXXVIII
and Philadelphia, 24-21, in Super Bowl XXXIX.
Game Summary: Based on history, the logical
choice would be to pick the Patriots to win by a
field goal. After all, the winning margin in each of
their three Super Bowl triumphs – all
accomplished this decade – has been three
points. But this New England team is different.
This New England team is literally immune to
defeat so far. Those other clubs were obviously
very good but they did lose on occasion in those
days. And while the Giants are obviously a worthy
adversary for reeling off 10 straight road victories
including an unlikely three in a row in the playoffs
over division-winners Tampa Bay, Dallas and
Green Bay, I just don’t see Eli Manning outplaying
Tom Brady – which is what it will take for the
Giants to pull off the upset. Granted, I didn’t
envision Manning playing smarter and protecting
the ball better than Brett Favre, either, and I was
obviously wrong on that score as were most
pundits. But Brady has been on this stage three
times before and came up golden every time.
Some might reason that he’s due for a stumble…
but you know what? I think that probably came
last week, when the Chargers picked him off
three times. Ah, but the Pats still came away
victorious. Admittedly, it’s not much of a reach in
terms of forecasting, but I envision Brady coming
up huge. The guy is simply too smart, too poised,
too experienced in the spotlight, he has too many
quality receivers to choose from, and his
offensive line is too good – even against a top-
notch Giants pass rush. Manning won’t
embarrass himself, but he’s not ready for this
level of Prime Time just yet. Beating Brady and
the Pats with single-season immortality on the
line for New England is asking too much. But
with that said, I’m no longer willing to buck the
recent trend that opponents are playing the
vaunted Patriots tough. A shaky pick for the
Giants to cover the number.
Prediction: PATRIOTS 35, GIANTS 24