Discrete Probability Distributions
Chapter 6
6-1
Learning Objectives
LO6-1 Identify the characteristics of a probability
distribution
LO6-2 Distinguish between discrete and continuous
random variables
LO6-3 Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation
of a discrete probability distribution
LO6-4 Explain the assumptions of the binomial distribution
and apply it to calculate probabilities
LO6-5 Explain the assumptions of the hypergeometric
distribution and apply it to calculate probabilities
LO6-6 Explain the assumptions of the Poisson distribution
and apply it to calculate probabilities
6-2
What is a Probability Distribution?
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION A listing of all the outcomes of an
experiment and the probability associated with each outcome.
CHARACTERISTICS OF A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1
inclusive.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
3. The list of outcomes is exhaustive. So the sum of the probabilities
of the outcomes is equal to 1.
Example: A drug manufacturer may claim a treatment will
cause weight loss for 80% of the population. This claim could
be tested by a consumer protection agency using a sample and
statistical inference.
6-3
Probability Distribution Example
Suppose we are interested in the number of heads
showing face up with 3 tosses of a coin
The possible outcomes are 0 heads, 1 head, 2 heads, and
3 heads
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Probability Distribution Table
Probability distribution table and chart for the events of
zero, one, two, and three heads
6-5
Random Variables
In any experiment of chance, the outcomes occur
randomly, and so are called random variables
RANDOM VARIABLE A quantity resulting from an experiment that, by
chance, can assume different values.
Examples
The number of employees absent from the day shift on
Monday, the number might be 0, 1, 2, 3, …The number
absent is the random variable
The grade level (Freshman, Sophomore, Junior, or Senior)
of the members of the St. James High School Varsity girls’
basketball team. Grade level is the random variable
6-6
Two Types of Random Variables
One type of random variable is the discrete random
variable
Discrete variables are usually the result of counting
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE A random variable that can assume
only certain clearly separated values.
Examples
Tossing a coin three times and counting the number of
heads
A bank counting the number of credit cards carried by a
group of customers
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Discrete Random Variable
For example, the Bank of the Carolinas counts the
number of credit cards carried by a group of customers
The number of cards carried is the discrete random
variable
Number of Credit Cards Relative Frequency
0 .03
1 .10
2 .18
3 .21
4 or more .48
Total 1.00
6-8 Copyright 2018 by McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved.
Continuous Random Variables
Continuous random variables can assume an infinite
number of values within a given range
Continuous variables are usually the result of measuring
Examples
The time between flights between Atlanta and LA are
4.67 hours, 5.13 hours, and so on
The annual snowfall in Minneapolis, MN measured in
inches
6-9
Mean and Variance of a Probability Distribution
The mean is a typical value used to represent the central
location of the data
The mean is also referred to as the expected value
The amount of spread (or variation) in the data is
described by the variance
The standard deviation of the probability distribution is
the positive square root of the variance
6-10
Probability Distribution Mean Example
John Ragsdale sells new
cars for Pelican Ford. John
usually sells the most cars
on Saturday. He has 1. What type of distribution is this?
developed a probability 2. How many cars does John expect
distribution for the to sell on a typical Saturday?
number of cars he expects 3. What is the variance?
to sell on Saturday.
6-11
Probability Distribution Variance Example
The computational steps for variance
Subtract the mean from each value of x and square
Multiply each squared difference by its probability
Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance
6-12
Binomial Distribution
There are four requirements of a binomial probability
distribution
1. There are only two possible outcomes and the outcomes are
mutually exclusive, as either a success or a failure
2. The number of trials is fixed and known
3. The probability of a success is the same for each trial
4. Each trial is independent of any other trial
Example
A young family has two children, both boys. The
probability of the third birth being a boy is still .50. The
gender of the third child is independent of the gender of
the other two.
6-13
Binomial Probability Experiment
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into one of
two mutually exclusive categories — a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number
of trials.
3. The probability of success is the same for each trial.
4. The trials are independent, meaning that the outcome of one trial
does not affect the outcome of any other trial.
6-14
How is a Binomial Probability Computed?
There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the Bradford
Regional Airport in Bradford, Pennsylvania. Suppose the probability that any
flight arrives late is .20.
What is the
probability that none
of the flights are late
today?
What is the
probability that
exactly one of the
flights is late today?
6-15
Binomial Probability Distribution
There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via US Airways into the Bradford
Regional Airport in Bradford, Pennsylvania. Suppose the probability that any
flight arrives late is .20. What is the probability that none of the flights are late
today? What is the probability that exactly 1 of the flights is late today?
6-16
Shortcut Formulas
6-17
Binomial Probability Tables
Tables are already constructed for use as well
In the Southwest, 5% of all cell phone calls are dropped. What is the
probability that out of six randomly selected calls, none was dropped?
Exactly one? Exactly two? Exactly three? Exactly four? Exactly five?
Exactly six out of six? See the table below for the answers.
6-18
Cumulative Binomial Probability Distributions
6-19
Hypergeometric Distribution
When sampling from relatively small populations without
replacement, use the hypergeometric distribution
HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into one of
two mutually exclusive categories — a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number
of trials.
3. The trials are not independent.
4. We assume that we sample from a finite population without
replacement and n/N > 0.05. So, the probability of a success
changes for each trial.
6-20
Hypergeometric Formula
PlayTime Toys Inc. employs 50
people in the Assembly Dept. Forty
of the employees belong to a union
and 10 do not. Five employees are
selected at random to form a
committee. What is the probability
that four of the five belong to a
union.
6-21
Hypergeometric Probabilities
Union Members Probability
0 .000
1 .004
2 .044
3 .210
4 .431
5 .311
1.000
6-22
Poisson Probability Distribution
This describes the number of times some event occurs
during a specified interval
The interval can be time, distance, area, or volume
Two assumptions
The probability is proportional to the length of the
interval
The intervals are independent
The Poisson has many applications like describing
The distribution of errors in data entry
The number of accidents on I-75 during a three-month
period
6-23
Poisson Distribution
POISSON PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. The random variable is the number of times some event occurs
during a defined interval.
2. The probability of the event is proportional to the size of the
interval.
3. The intervals do not overlap and are independent.
6-24
Poisson Distribution Example
6-25
Poisson Probability Distribution Tables
NewYork-LA Trucking company finds the mean number of breakdowns
on the New York to Los Angeles route is 0.30. From the table, we can
locate the probability of no breakdowns on a particular run. Find the
column 0.3, then read down that column to the row labeled 0; the value is
.7408. The probability of 1 breakdown is .2222
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