Data Analytics Simulation:
Strategic Decision Making
How-to-Play Guide
This PowerPoint presentation was prepared by Professor Thomas H. Davenport for the sole purpose of supplementing the use of Data Analytics Simulation: Strategic Decision Making (HBP No. 7050). HBP
educational materials are developed solely as the basis for class discussion. These materials are not intended to serve as endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustrations of effective or ineffective
management.
Note to Instructors
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Copyright © 2017 President and Fellows of Harvard College.
2
Background
You have just been hired as a brand manager at Kelsey-White, an
American multinational consumer goods company. Recently the firm
invested in the development of K-W Vision, a series of systems and
processes that allow the use of up-to-date data and advanced analytics
to drive informed decision making about K-W brands. The system is
populated with four years of historical data. You are starting in Year 5.
As brand manager for K-W’s Blue laundry detergent, you are tasked to
lead the brand's turnaround. Use the Vision platform to develop your
strategy, grow Blue’s market share, and become more profitable over
the next four years.
Objectives
Use the K-W Vision dashboard, reports and data explorer screens to
identify issues and opportunities for Blue in the US market.
Make decisions that support the Blue brand:
• Predict market demand and set production
• Set channel price
• Make formulation decisions
• Determine promotional spending decisions
• Communicate your strategy to your managers
The simulation begins in Year 5, and you will make decisions for four
years, ending in Year 8.
Blue and Their Competitors, Year 4
Blue
– Price per unit: $7
– Market share: 11.0%
Fresh
– Price per unit: $8
– Market share: 26.3%
Store
– Price per unit: $6
– Market share: 18.6
Turbo
– Price per unit: $10
– Market share: 44.1%
Dashboard
The Dashboard provides at-a-glance metrics:
• Market Share
• Profitability
• Revenue
• Demand of Blue by Region
On all screens, you can hover
over any data point on the
chart for more specific
information.
Reports: Income Statement
The Reports screen shows four different reports:
• Income Statement
• Production vs. Demand
• Pricing
• Social Media
The Income Statement screen
provides four years of historical
data (Years 1–4) about Blue’s
operating performance.
Note: “Other Costs” consist of
promotional spending from the
trade channel and media spends.
Reports: Production vs. Demand
The Production vs. Demand chart tracks annual production,
demand, and any excess inventory.
Unused inventory will be
used in future periods where
demand > production.
Sales = MIN (demand,
production + inventory)
Reports: Pricing
The Pricing chart tracks the price for each of the four competitors
each year. You start making choices in Year 5; Year 4 had the
following prices:
• Turbo: $10/unit
• Fresh: $8/unit
• Blue: $7/unit
• Store: $6/unit
Reports: Social Media
The Social Media screen allows you to monitor
sentiment shared on social media channels.
An animated graph tracks
favorability changes over the
years.
A live stream displays and
categorizes incoming Blue
related social media posts.
Data Explorer
The Data Explorer screen allows for a deeper dive into data.
There are 11 customizable charts providing deeper analysis of
available market data.
Click on one or more of the
demographic filters to drill
into and customize data by
• Income
• Ethnicity
• Household size
• Region
• Age
Geographic Demand
The Geographic Demand screen provides a more detailed
look at regional demand per household at the state level.
An animated timeline shows
changes in unit demand per
household by region year over
year.
This data can also be filter by
demographics.
Scroll over each state to view
its specific demand per
household for the selected
year.
Make Decisions
The Make Decisions screen contains all the inputs needed to make
your decisions each year. These decisions include the following:
• Units to produce
• Channel price
• Formulation
• Product features and
positioning
• Trade channel spend
• Media spend
• Target market segment
for decisions
Decisions: Production and Pricing
For Units to Produce, enter the number of units to be produced in the
coming year. There is an additional tool, Forecast Demand, to help
predict unit demand.
For Channel Price, enter the price that customers will pay per unit in
the coming year.
Decisions: Forecast Demand
Use the Forecast Demand tool to help determine how
many units to produce for the year.
Adjust your estimates for demand per
region, then review the resulting
distributions which show the
probability of expected outcomes.
After setting your regional demand
estimates, experiment with units to
produce until the average value for
our chosen distribution is maximized.
Note: You still need to manually enter
the production units for the year. This
is just a tool to help inform your
decision.
Decisions: Formulation and Features
For Formulation, select the detergent format to produce. In addition to
the marketing impact, your selection also impacts Blue’s income
statement:
• Pods: 15% cost increase to variable costs
• Liquid: 7% cost increase to variable costs
• Powder: Baseline variable costs (i.e., no cost increase)
For Product Features and Positioning, select the primary product
attribute emphasized for both formulation and in product marketing.
The options are odor elimination, cold water, scent, and softness.
Decisions: Trade Channel Spend
Determine the allocation of your promotional budget for trade channel
spend (Year 5 budget: $25.1 million) among the following strategic
channels:
• Convenience
• Club
• Grocery
• Mass
Your budget will adjust each year based on prior year performance. You can
change your allocation each year and are allowed to spend less than the
total budget if desired. You will receive an error indication and will not be
allowed to submit your decisions if you attempt to go over budget.
Decisions: Media Spend
Determine the allocation of your promotional budget for media spend
(Year 5 budget: $12.5 million) among the following media channels:
• Print
• TV
• Radio
• Digital ads
Your budget will adjust each year based on prior year performance. You can
change your allocation each year and are allowed to spend less than the
total budget if desired. You will receive an error indication and will not be
allowed to submit your decisions if you attempt to go over budget.
Decisions: Strategy Communication
For Target Market Segment for Decisions, communicate your strategy
to your manager. Select any filters for the demographics that you chose
to target.
In the Strategic Plan Executive Summary box, provide a more detailed
explanation of your strategy for the year.
Decision History
The Decision History table will
populate with the decisions you
submit for each year on the Make
Decisions screen.