Course: Foreign Policy Analys Student name: Nhu Ngan Giang

Lecturer: M.A Ta Thi Oanh ID: 2106080042

Topic: Apply Realism Theory to analyze Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy
in 2016

I. Introduction
According to Waltz, “In anarchy, security is the highest end. Only if survival is assured
can the state safely seek such other goals as tranquility, profit, and power…the first
concern of states is not to maximize power but to maintain their position in the system”
(1979, p.126). In the context of the last several decades after the end of the Cold War,
there was a significant growth of the Indo-Pacific mega-region in terms of geo-
economics and geo-strategic importance. But the dynamic of the world experienced
uneven growth and the imbalance of power resulting from the rise of China which
surpassed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy. To consolidate the
status quo under US hegemony that indirectly ensures the initial position of Japan in
global politics, in 2016, Shinzo Abe proposed a Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy
(FOIP). In the following years, the strategy was spread to the world scene, the US, the
EU, ASEAN, the UK, France, Australia, and Germany,.. set up their own Indo-Pacific
policies. This paper will focus on analyzing Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific
Strategy through the lens of defensive neorealism with the structural, dispositional as
well as intentional dimensions of the FIOP.

II. MAIN BODY

1. Background Information
1.1 Defensive Neorealism
The book “Theory of International Politics” written by Kenneth Waltz in 1979 indicates
both ideas and theories of defensive neorealism. The anarchical nature of the
international system, according to defensive neorealism, encourages states to pursue
defensive and moderate strategies as argued by Waltz, “In anarchy, security is the
highest end. Only if survival is assured can the state safely seek such other goals as
tranquility, profit, and power…”. In general, for defensive neorealists, security is
abundant and they believe that nations desire to maximize security, sustain the present
power distribution without aggression as well as relative loss in their relative position
and ranking (Grieco, 1990). Although there is sometimes a necessity for conflicts in
defensive neorealists’ perspective in the case of aggressor states that threatened their
security, they still consider conflict was not ideal solution. becasue they can be
counterproductive and weaken the state with the cost of growth seemingly outweighs
the benefits (Steven, 2017). In short, defensive neorealists find it costly for conquest
and refer to moderation encouraged by the international system
1.2 The Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, in his speech titled “Confluence of the Two Seas”
in front of the Indin parliament in August 2007, for the first time presented Japan’s
vision for the Indo-Pacific region with the idea of connectivity between Asia and Africa
and cooperation among like-minded countries including the United States, Japan,
Australia, and India ( later called Quad). Right after returning for his second term,
Shinzo Abe officially unveiled a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” at the Tokyo
International Conference on African Development in Kenya (TICAD) in 2016. This
strategy was planned in “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond” written by Prime
Minister Abe wherein the United States, Australia, Japan, and India would create a
diamond-shaped block to guard the maritime channels that connect the Indian Ocean to
the western Pacific Ocean. Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono stated that that the
FOIP consisting three main pillars: “ promotion and establishment of rule of law,
freedom of navigation; pursuit of economic prosperity; commitment for peace and
stability” is not aimed at a specific country and does not oppose any initiatives.

2. Foreign Policy Analysis

2.1 Structural Dimensions and Dispositional Dimenions
Japan’s interest in the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific region, which emerged as a arterirs of gloable economic growth with
60% of the word GDP, is indispensable to Japan's security and prosperity, since Japan
is an island country, the two main export routes that Japan uses are sea and air. Since
Japan only borders the Pacific Ocean, all seaborne exports pass through the Pacific
Ocean and the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean and other regions. According to
statistics from the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the value of Japan's seaborne exports
accounted for 58.83% of the value of export output. In addition, Indo-Pacific also paves
the way for Japan to foster regional connectivity with other nations like India, France,
Germany, the UK,....or initiatives like QUAD and regional forums, which elevates
Japan's international standing and allows it to play a leading role in shaping the Indo-
Pacific's future. In short, the Indo-Pacific has become a springboard for Japan's
economic prosperity, security, and international influence.
The rise of China
The first two decades of the 21st century experienced the meteoric rise of China’s
economic and military power that tilted the balance of power in Asia and globally. By
2010, China surpassed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy right after
the US was definitely incredible. Some strategies such as the Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) or the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) demonstrated China’s
ambition to solidify its economic ties with Southeast Asian countries, potentially
creating a sphere of influence predicated on economic dependence by contributing
billions to infrastructure development funds. Along with economic ascent, after the Gulf
War, China also embarked on a significant military power program with was a dramatic
surge in defense spending. The Chinese military had advanced from being equipped to
conduct small-scale battles to being capable of projecting power and waging war beyond
its boundaries. Especially, China became more aggressive, pressing its claims in the
South China Sea. These claims, often overlapping with those of its neighbors such as
Philipines and Vietnam, created friction and instability in the region.
The uncertain commitment of the US in the Indo-Pacific region
In 1951, the US-Japan Security Treaty solidified America's commitment to defend
Japan, echoing George Kennan's assertion that “Japan is the key to Asia, just as
Germany is the key to Europe”. President Obama emphasized this commitment in 2014,
asserting protection over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. His "Pivot to Asia" strategy
aimed to shift focus from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, symbolized by joining the
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, remnants of the 9/11 aftermath tied the US
to Middle Eastern conflicts, evident in continued engagement in Afghanistan and
renewed intervention in Iraq and Syria due to regional destabilization. Moreover,
although on the surface the US looked more towards the Indo-Pacific region, US
seemingly made more investment in the Middle East region. According to statistics on
the amount of US foreign aid in 2018, the amount of aid to the Middle East and North
Africa region amounted to $6,562,166,696, 3 times higher than the Indo-Pacific region.
More seriously, “Pivot to Asia”, a tool for Obama’s overall approach to China specially
the South China Sea. However, with the concentration on military power rather than
economic power which led to China's belief that this strategy aim to contain it, that
President Obama’s soft rhetoric towards China to resolve the problems made Philippines
decided to separate from the US to directly resolve the South China Sea disputes. This
context proved the decline in America's influence in the region.

2.2 Dispositional Dimension

“Traditional Values”
Under the era of President Shinzo Abe, Abe himself is a firm believer in the importance
of reviving “traditional values,” patriotism, and national identity. He considered "love
for the country" a method of strengthening the home foundation of national identity
through a stronger national defense rather than military solutions. On December 26,
2013, his controversial visit to the Yasukuni shrine in 2013, despite backlash from China
and South Korea, reflected his respect for Japanese traditions.
Abe's beliefs were likely steeped in a sense of anxiety about the post-war order. The
once US-dominated regional landscape appeared increasingly precarious due to China's
growing economic and military. Therefore, the rise of China made he realized that it
must act now or its influence in the Indo-Pacific region will diminish as China’s
influence grows. Additionally, a perceived decline in US commitment to Asian security
when Japan heavily relied on the US for its security promoted it to proactively,
independently participate in global affairs. In other words, these concerns intertwined
with Abe's value system. He likely believed pacifism needed to adapt to this new
security dynamic.
“Status quo”
Besides, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also understood the deep connection
between regional stability and economic prosperity. He believed that preseve a certain
status quo which based on international order contributes to economic benefits.
Nevertheless, China's assertive territorial claims and military expansion were likely
viewed as direct threats to both regional stability and the freedom of navigation crucial
for Japan's trade. China's unilateral actions, disregarding international law and
arbitration rulings, challenged this order and created uncertainty. Seriously, China's
assertiveness in the South China Sea was a blueprint for Senkaku, where Japan has
territorial disputes with China. This could directly threaten Japanese interests. All of
these factors chipped away at Abe’s belief in the existing stability and forced Japan to
consider a more proactive role in regional security and potentially revise its
interpretation of the status quo.
2.3 Intentional Dimension
According to defensive neorealism, governments seek security and survival due to the
nature of anarchic international systems. They achieve this primarlity by stable
international order and balancing against emering powers. From this perspective, the
FOIP strategy bearing the personal stamp of Prime Minister Abe's strategic vision
appears to be a planned reaction to a perceived change in the regional security landscape.
Promote a rules-based order
Japan’s top priority goal in pursuing the FOIP is to maintain the status quo through
promotion of a rules-based order. Well-established rules are supposed to benefit all
states by lessen uncertainty and encouraging cooperation. This is exactly in line with
the goal of the FOIP approach, which is to create a predictable environment in which
nations may engage according to accepted norms. Therefore, the FOIP strategy acts as
a bulwark against unilateral actions that could destabilize the region.
Ensuring freedom of navigation
For national prosperity, the importance of unfettered access to resources ans trade routes
is undeniable. Free and open access to sea lanes is critical for not only Japan which
heavily reliant on trade but also for the entire region’s economic prosperity. The FOIP
strategy’s focus on freedom of navigation directly addresses this concern by countering
any attempt by other nations to constraint access to sea lanes.
Resolving disputes peacefully
Avoiding expensive and damaging confrontations also is priority in defensive realism.
In line with this premise, the FOIP policy emphasizes negotiation and international law
as the main means of settling territorial disputes. Japan seeks to avert escalation and
preserve regional stability by promoting peaceful solutions.
Balancing China’s rise
A core tenet of defensive neorealism is balancing against a rising power that threatens
the existing balance of power. China's rise is perceived as a threat by Japan. As the
results, all of the above goals are aimed at containing China's rise to garuantee Japan's
interest. Therefore, the FOIP strategy can be seen as the tool for Japan to create a
counterweight to China's growing influence.
2.4 Foreign Policy Actions
Ultilizing the perspective of defensive neorealism, expansion is never truly beneficial
and the international order favors defenders over [Link] FOIP approach turned
these objectives into practical actions that was shaped by the ideas of defensive
neorealism.
Strengthening alliances and promoting security cooperation.
Defensive believe that security is an indispensable factor preparing for balancing aginst
rising [Link] that reason, Japan actively strengthens its alliance with the US in order
to sustain US primacy because the US has traditionally been the guarantor of regional
security in Asia. This strategic move not only bolstered regional security but also
ensured a continued US presence in the Indo-Pacific, a vital pillar for Japan's own
security and prosperity. In 2016, a revison of the US-Japan Defense Guidelines took
place. The collaboration was broadened by this amendment, making it possible for US
forces to operate with more freedom in Japan and for Japanese forces to actively assist
US operations elsewhere. In 2017, Japan deployed MV-22 Ospreys, tiltrotor aircraft
prized for their versatility, to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni in southern Japan. This
deployment not only bolstered US Marine Corps capabilities in the region but also
signaled Japan's willingness to host advanced US military assets.
Yet, defensive neorealism emphasizes hedging against uncertainties in alliances. Hence,
to hedge against potential US disengagement from the region, while maintaining the US
alliance as a cornerstone, Japan fosters partnerships with other regional powers in the
Indo-Pacific region like India and Australia to create a counterweight to China and
lessens reliance on a single ally and offers strategic flexibility. Related to India, in 2017,
“The Asia Africa Growth Corridor” was released, which is an initiative of India and
Japan with aim to foster economic connectivity between Asia and Africa through
industrial networks and capacity buidling measures in Southeast Asia.
Also, Japan’s relationship with Australia deepened across security, economic, and
diplomatic domains. In 2017, Japan and Australia conducted their first bilateral Exercise
Nichi Gou Trident, aimed at improving maritime interoperability and coordination
between their defense forces. This exercise marked a milestone in their military
partnership and demonstrated their commitment to upholding security and stability in
the Indo-Pacific region.
Moreover, strenthening alliance paved the way for the FOIP strategty to revitalize the
QUAD in 2017 to enhance maritime security and connectivity in the region. Although
Quad is not a military alliance based on the age-old priciple of “collective security”.
Notbale event is that the Kakaku exercise, hosted by the Royal Australian Navy (RAN)
with forces involvement of remaing members of QUAD. The exercise focuses on
developing interoperability between participating navies.
Enhancing defense capacity and focusing on regional stability
Strengthening defense capabilities is always on the priority list of defensive neorealism
to protect national security. Since 2016, Japan has gradually increased its defense
spending to counter China’s military advancements and fulfill its expanded role under
FOIP. Japan will reinforce its defense capabilities á the second year ò the “Medium
Term Defense Program” in order to build a effective defnese capability “Multi-Domain
Defense Force”. Also, recognizing the evoling nature of warfare, Japan decided to
expand the roles for the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), which is expected to acquire and
strengthen capabilities in new domains including space, cyberspace and electromagnetic
spectrum by focusing resources and leveraging Japan’s superb science and technology.
Furthermore, the SDF is taking on a more active role in regional security, participating
in joint exercises with allies and potentially contributing to collective defense efforts.
As mentioned above, that SDF participated in the Kakaku exercise allow it SDF to
improve its tactical skills, communication, and ability to operate effectively in a
combined maritime force and strengthen regional security cooperation as well as
promote the principles of the FOIP.
Finally, Japan actively participates in international forums and dialogues related to
regional disputes. This action reflects the defensive realist principle of resolving
conflicts peacefully through diplomacy and international law. For instance, the East Asia
Summit (EAS) which is annual leaders' summit involving ASEAN members and key
regional players like Japan, China, the US, and India. While not solely focused on
security, discussions often touch upon regional disputes, and Japan promotes a rules-
based order that support regional stability.

III. CONCLUSION
To sum up, the FOIP strategy, with its emphasis on a rules-based order, freedom of
navigation, and peaceful dispute resolution, aligns closely with the tenets of defensive
neorealism. By emphasizing the importance of regional stability, security cooperation,
and adherence to international norms, Japan seeks to mitigate security threats and
maintain its autonomy in the Indo-Pacific region including balancing against China,
hedging against US uncertainty. Moreover, it also incorporates economic and normative
elements that go beyond a strictly realist framework. Nevertheless, at its core, the FOIP
strategy reflects Japan's attempt to secure its national interests in a competitive regional
environment. By fostering partnerships, promoting a rules-based order, and enhancing
maritime security, Japan aims to safeguard its strategic position and uphold stability in
the Indo-Pacific, thereby ensuring its continued prosperity and influence amidst
evolving geopolitical dynamics. The FOIP, a multi-faceted strategy for navigating the
complex power dynamics, is shaping more clearly and will be one of the most important
mechanisms for security and economic cooperation of the Indo-Pacific region.
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