National Institute of Technology, Tiruchirappalli

CONSEQUENCE
ANALYSIS

Dr. S.P. Sivapirakasam

Professor
Department of Mechanical Engineering
Introduction
• Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) is a methodology
designed to provide management with a tool to help evaluate overall process
safety in the chemical process industry (CPI).

• Management systems such as engineering codes, checklists and process safety

management (PSM) provide layers of protection against accidents.

• However, the potential for serious incidents cannot be totally eliminated.

• CPQRA provides a quantitative method to evaluate risk and to identify areas

for cost-effective risk reduction.
Elements of
Process Safety
Management
Guidelines for process safety management
is given by OSHA 29 CFR 1910.119
Method adopted in
IS 15656:2006
Hazard Identification Tools
WHAT IS CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS ?

• All processes have a risk potential. In order to manage

risks effectively, they must be estimated. Since risk is a
combination of frequency and consequence,
consequence (or impact) analysis is a necessary step in
the risk management process.
• The basic principle of consequence analysis lies in
quantifying the consequences in terms of damage
distances of an accident that can take place by the
release of a hazardous chemical.
CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS TO ACHIEVE A
CONSERVATIVE RESULT
All models, including consequence models, have
uncertainties. These uncertainties arise due to
(1) An incomplete understanding of the geometry of the
release, that is, hole size,
(2) Unknown or poorly characterized physical properties,
(3) A poor understanding of the chemical or release
process,
(4) And unknown or poorly understood mixture
behaviour, to name a few.
DETAILS OF ANALYSIS
Consequence
Analysis

Fires and
Source Evasive
explosive Effect models
Models Actions
model

Flash and
Discharge Dispersion
Evaporation
Rate models models
models
SOURCE MODELS

Source models are used to Dispersion models convert the

quantitatively define the release source term outputs to
scenario by estimating discharge concentration fields downwind
rates , total quantity released (or from the source.
total release duration), extent of
flash and evaporation from a
liquid pool, and aerosol
formation.
DISCHARGE RATE MODELS
Data required

❑PURPOSE: a) Physical condition of storage.

b) Phase at discharge.
Most acute hazardous incidents
start with a discharge of c) Path of the discharge (hole size).
flammable or toxic material from Results
its normal containment.
a) Discharge rate of the gas/liquid/two-phase flow.
This may be from a crack or b) Duration of release.
fracture of process vessels or
pipework, from an open valve, or c) Phase change during release.
from an emergency vent. Such
leaks may be gas, liquid, or two-
phase flashing liquid-gas releases.
Illustration of some conceivable
release mechanisms
Illustration of some conceivable
release mechanisms
Release phase
FUNDAMENTAL EQUATIONS

Discharge models are based

on a mechanical energy
balance. A typical form of
this balance is:
2K METHOD
LIQUID DISCHARGE

For liquid discharges, the driving force for Since the density remains constant
the discharge is normally pressure, with during the discharge, the pressure
the pressure energy being converted to integral in the mechanical energy
kinetic energy during the discharge. balance, can be integrated directly to
result in the following simplified equation:
 Liquid
discharge rate Gas discharges
rate
Two phase discharge

Two phase flow during run away reaction

venting
Any pressurized liquid above its normal
boiling point will start to flash when it is
released to atmosphere, then two phase
flow will start
It is also likely to occur from Discharge from vessels exposed to fire
depressurization of the vapor space
above a volatile liquid.
Problem
Problem
FLASH AND EVAPORATION MODELS
FLASH AND EVAPORATION MODELS

Data required Results

Heat capacity, latent heat, boiling point of liquid. Amount of vapor from a liquid discharge.

Leak rate, pool area, wind velocity, temperature. Time dependent mass rate of boiling.

Vapour pressure, mass transfer coefficient. Radius or radial spread velocity of the pool.

Viscosity, density, a turbulent friction coefficient.

Evaporation

FLASHING
POOL SPREAD AND AREAS TO WORK ON
Logical Data
EXAMPLE PROBLEM
DISPERSION
MODELS
Three kinds of vapor cloud behavior and three different
release-time modes can be defined:

Vapor Cloud Behavior: Duration of Release:

• Neutrally buoyant gas • Instantaneous (puff)
• Positively buoyant gas • Continuous release (plumes)
• Dense (or negatively) buoyant gas • Time varying continuous
Effect of atmospheric stability on
plume dispersion
PURPOSE:-Neutral and positively buoyant plume or puff models are used to
predict average concentration and time profiles of flammable or toxic materials
downwind of a source based on the concept of Gaussian dispersion.

Philosophy:-Atmospheric diffusion is a random mixing process driven by

turbulence in the atmosphere. The concentration at any point downwind of a source
is well approximated by a Gaussian concentration profile in both the horizontal and
vertical dimensions.

Applications :-Gaussian models are used extensively in its prediction of

atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. Gaussian models are directly applicable in
risk analyses for neutral and positively buoyant emissions.

NEUTRAL AND POSITIVELY BUOYANT

PLUME AND PUFF MODELS
Dispersion
coefficients for a
continuous release
or plume. The top
two graphs apply
only for rural
release conditions
and the bottom two
graphs apply only
for urban release
conditions.
Dispersion coefficients for an instantaneous release or puff.
These apply only for rural release conditions and are
developed based on limited data.
Three-dimensional
view of Gaussian
dispersion from an
elevated continuous
emission source
Gaussian formula for natural and
positively buoyant plume
Where
<C> is the time average concentration (mass/volume)
G is the total mass of material released (mass)
σx,σy and σz are the dispersion coefficients in the x, y,
and z directions (length)
u is the wind speed (length/time)
Y is the cross-wind direction (length)
z is the distance above the ground (length)
H is the height of the source above ground level plus
plume rise (length)
Gaussian formula for puff emissions
Where
<C> is the time average concentration (mass/volume)
G * is the total mass of material released (mass)
σx,σy and σz are the dispersion coefficients in the x, y, and z
directions (length)
Y is the cross-wind direction (length)
z is the distance above the ground (length)
H is the release height above the ground (length)
Assumes dispersion from an elevated point source with no ground
absorption or reaction.
Here x is the downwind direction, y is the crosswind direction,
and z is the height above ground level.
 LOGIC
DIAGRAM OF
NEUTRAL AND
POSITIVELY
BUOYANT
PLUME AND
PUFF MODELS
DISCUSSION

Output:- Strengths and Weaknesses:-

The methodology is well defined and well validated. It is suitable for

The output of plume models is

the time averaged concentration manual calculation, is readily computerized on a personal computer,

at specific locations (in the three or is available as standard software packages. Its main weaknesses

spatial coordinates: x>y> z) are that it does not accurately simulate dense gas discharges,

downwind of the source validation is limited from 0.1 to 10 km, and puff models are less well

established than plume models.

DENSE GAS DISPERSION
Purpose:- The mechanisms of dense gas dispersion differ markedly from neutrally
buoyant clouds. When dense gases are initially released, these gases slump toward the
ground and move both upwind and downwind.

Principle:- Two distinct modeling approaches have been attempted for dense gas
dispersion: mathematical, physical.

Applications:- Dense gas mathematical models are widely employed to simulate

the dispersion of flammable and toxic dense gas clouds. For prediction of toxic
consequences, two common approaches are the use of either a specific toxic
concentration or a toxic dose criterion.
DESCRIPTION
The usual assumptions are
The dense cloud slumps under the
influence of gravity increasing its • The vapor cloud disperses over flat terrain.
diameter and reducing its height. The
vapor cloud is treated as a single
cylinder or box containing vapor at a • The ground has constant roughness.
uniform concentration. Air mixes with
the box as it disperses downwind. Box • There are no obstructions.
width increases as it spreads due to
gravity slumping.
• Local concentration fluctuations are ignored.

• The treatment of chemical reactions or deposition is

limited.
Schematic
Representation
 Logic
diagram
for dense
clouds
DISCUSSION

Input Requirements and Availability:- Strengths and Weaknesses:-

Ground roughness, physical properties of The major strength of most of the dense gas
models is their rigorous inclusion of the
the spilled material (molecular weight,
important mechanisms of gravity slumping,
atmospheric boiling temperature, latent heat
air entrainment, and heat transfer
of vaporization), wind speed profiles, and
processes. Their primary weakness is related
the physical properties of the ground (heat to source term estimation and the high level
capacity, porosity , thermal conductivity). of skill required of the user.
Fire and
explosion
models
Agenda
• Jet Fire
• Fire Ball
• BLEVE
• Pool Fire
• Flash Fire
• BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor
Explosion)
• Vapor Cloud Explosion
• Physical Explosion
Jet Fire
It occurs when a flammable chemical is rapidly released
from an opening in a container and immediately catches
on fire- much like the flame from a blowtorch.
Primary Hazard: Thermal Radiation.
Data required: Flow rate, hole diameter, heat of combustion
and vaporization, density of fluid, temperature, view factor, etc.

Results: Thermal radiation flux at a distance.

Note: Heat from the jet fire may weaken the tank and
cause it to fail completely-in which case, a BLEVE may
occur.
Fireball
If the chemical is above its boiling point
when the container fails, some or all of the
liquid will flash boil that is,
instantaneously become a gas. If the
chemical is flammable a burning gas cloud
called a fire ball may occur if a significant
amount of the chemical flash-boils.
The fuel air mixture burns almost instantly
causing a sudden expansion of hot gases.
The burning gases form a spherical shape
due to equal expansion in all direction.
The heated gases rise due to their lower
density, creating an upward-moving fireball.
BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding
Vapor Explosion)

A common BLEVE scenario happens when

a container of liquified gas is heated by fire,
increasing the pressure within the container
until the tank ruptures and fails.
Data required: Mass involved in fire ball,
radiative fraction of heat of combustion,
heat of combustion for unit mass,
atmospheric transmissivity.
Results: Thermal radiation flux from the
surface of fireball.
Empirical Equations for BLEVE
Fireball Diameter, Duration, and
Fireball Height
Maximum fireball diameter (m): Dmax =5.8M1/3
where M is the initial mass of flammable liquid (kg).
Fireball combustion duration (s):
tBLEVE = 0.45 M1/3 for M < 30,000 kg
tBLEVE = 2.6 M1/6 forM > 30,000 kg

Center height of fireball (m): HBLEVE = 0.75 Dmax

Initial ground level hemisphere diameter (m): Dinitial = 1.3Dmax
Radiation

The Four parameters used to

determine a fireball's thermal
radiation hazard are, the mass of
fuel involved and the fireball's
diameter, duration, and thermal
emissive power.
Thermal radiation is usually
calculated using surface emitted
flux, E
 The radiation flux received by a receptor,
Er , at a distance XcL
The values for R:

0.3 for fireballs from vessels bursting below

the relief set pressure
0.4 for fireballs from vessels bursting at or
above the relief set pressure.
Where ζa is the atmosphere transmissivity (fraction of the energy transmitted: 0 to 1)
Pw is the water partial pressure (Pascal),
Xs is the path length distance from the flame surface to the target.

A more empirically based equation

for the radiation flux is presented by
Roberts (1981) to measure the
radiation flux received by a receptor
at a distance, L, from the center of
the fireball
 This logic
diagram shows
the calculation
sequence for
determination
of shock wave,
thermal, and
fragmentation
effects of a
BLEVE of a
flammable
material.
 EXAMPLE PROBLEM
BLEVE Thermal Flux.

Calculate the size and duration, and thermal flux at 200 m distance from a BLEVE of an isolated 100,000 kg
(200 m3) tank of propane at 200C, 8.2 bar abs(680F, 120psia). Atmospheric humidity corresponds to a water
partial pressure of 2810 N/m2 (0.4 psi). Assume a heat of combustion of 46,350 kj/kg.

Solution: The geometry of the BLEVE are calculated as

For an initial mass, M = 100,000 kg, the BLEVE fireball geometry is given by

Dmax= 5.8 M1/3 = (5.8)(100,000 kg)1/3 = 269 m

tBLEVE = 2.6 M1/6 = (2.6)(100,000 kg)1/6 = 17.7 s

HBLEVE = 0.75 Dmax = (0.75)(269 m) = 202 m Dinitial= 1.3 Dmax= (1.3)(269 m) = 350 m
 Cont.

• For the radiation fraction ,R , assume a value of 0.3.

The emitted flux at the surface of the fireball is determined as

• The view factor, assuming a vertically oriented target

Path Length ,
X s = (H2BLEVE+L2)1/2 -(DMAX/2)
=[(202m)2 +(200m)2]0.5 -(0.5)(269m) =150m

The transmissivity of the air is given by

τa =2.02(PWXS)-0.09 =(2.02)[(2810Pa)(150m)]-0.09 =0.630

The received flux at the receptor is calculated as,

Er = τa EF21 =(0.630)(345kW/m2)(0.157)=34.12kW/m2
This received radiation is enough to cause blistering of bare skin after a few seconds of
exposure.
Xc is the distance from the center of the fireball to
the receptor.
Xc = [(202 m)2 + (200 m)2 ] 1/2= 284.2 m

Substituting into Eq.

which is close to the previously calculated value of 34.12

kW/m2.

which is a different result, more conservative in this case.

Pool Fire

• It occurs when a flammable liquid forms a

puddle on the ground and catches on fire.
• Primary Hazard: Thermal Radiation
• Data required: Quantity, pool diameter,
heat of combustion and vaporization,
density of air, temperature, view factor,
etc.
• Results: Thermal radiation flux at a
distance.
Pool fire:

The spreading of the liquid depends on In most cases, pool size is fixed by the
the area available, confinement and size of the release and by local physical
the nature of the ground with an barriers(e.g., dikes, sloped drainage
immediate source of ignition, these areas).
can result in pool fires.
For a continuous leak, on an infinite flat
Large pool Fire Burn at a constant plane, the maximum diameter is
vertical rate, characteristic for the reached when the product of burning
Materials. rate and surface area equals the leakage
rate.
Burning rate can be predict from heat
of combustion and latent heat of
vaporization.
Y max =1.27x10^-6(ΔH/ΔH*)
where
Y max is the vertical height of the liquid level decrease (m/s)
ΔH is the net heat of combustion (Energy/mass)
ΔH* is the modified heat of vaporization at the boiling point (Energy/mas

𝑻𝒃
ΔH*= ΔH V + ‫𝑻׬‬ 𝑪 𝑷 𝐝𝐓
𝒂
Where,
ΔH V is the heat of vaporization of the liquid at ambient temperature
(Energy/mass)
𝑪 𝑷 is the specific heat of the liquid (Energy/mass -deg)

m B = 1x10^-3 (ΔH c /ΔH*)

where,
m B is the mass burning rate (Kg/m2s)
Pool Fire

Flame Height:- H is the visible flame height (m)

Many observations of pool fires show D is the equivalent pool diameter (m)
that there is an approximate ratio of
flame height to diameter. mB is the mass burning rate (kg/m² s)

H/D=42[mB/(pa(gDˆ½))ˆ0.61 pa is the air density (1.2 kg/m³)

g is the acceleration of gravity (9.81
m/s²)
Pool Fire

Flame Tilt:- Geometric View Factor:-

Pool fires are often tilted by the wind, and The view factor depends on whether the
under stronger winds, the base of a pool fire point source or solid plume radiation
can be dragged downwind. These effects models are used. For the point source
alter the radiation received at surrounding model, the view factor is given by
locations.
Fp=1/4∏x²
Fp=point source view factor(m²)

X=distance from point source to target(m)

 Flash Fire
When a flammable vapor cloud encounters an ignition
source, the cloud can catch fire and burn rapidly in
what is called a flash fire.
Primary Hazard: Thermal Radiation
Data required: Material released, dispersion
coefficients, flame emissivity, view factor,
atmospheric attenuation.
Results: Thermal radiation flux at a distance.
The release of a small quantity of vapor is likely
to result in flash fire with out significant over
pressure.
Vapor Cloud Explosions
• When a flammable chemical is released into the atmosphere, it forms a
vapor cloud that will disperse as it travels downwind.
• If the cloud encounters an ignition source, the parts of the cloud where
the concentration is within the flammable range (between LEL and UEL)
will burn.
• The speed at which the flame front moves through the cloud determines
whether it is deflagration or a detonation. In some situations, the cloud
will burn so fast that it creates an explosive force (blast wave).
• The severity of a vapor cloud explosion depends on the chemical, the
cloud size at the time of ignition, the type of ignition and the congestion
level inside the cloud.
• The primary hazards are overpressure and hazardous fragments.
Unconfined vapor cloud explosion

To review the types of models available Consequences of concern for

for estimation of accidental explosions explosions in general are
and fire incidents.
1. shock wave
When explosion arise from a
combustion reaction usually thermal 2. Over pressure effects
radiation effects are ignored because
3. Projectile effects
of the shock wave effects will
predominate 4. Consequences of concern for fire
5. Thermal radiation effects
UVCE models have been applied for Important parameters in analyzing
combustion incidents are the properties
incident analysis and in risk analysis of the material: lower and upper
prediction flammable limits (LFL and UFL), flash
point, auto ignition temperature, heat of
combustion, molecular weight, and
A flash fire model has been developed for combustion stoichiometry.
risk analysis only.
Models of UVCE are primarily based
on three broad approaches

Detonating high explosive equivalence (TNT)

Correlation with observed UVCEs (TNO)

Idealized gas dynamic models (ACOUSTIC )

TNT MODEL where

W is the equivalent mass of TNT (kg or Ib)

The TNT equivalency model is based on
ƞ is an empirical explosion efficiency (unitless)
the assumption of equivalence between the
flammable material and TNT, factored by M is the mass of hydrocarbon (kg or Ib)
an explosion efficiency term:
EC is the heat of combustion of flammable gas (kj/kg or Btu/lb)

ETNT is the heat of combustion of TNT (4437-4765 kj/kg or 1943-

2049 Btu/lb).
EMPIRICAL EXPLOSION YIELD

Scaled range is defined as distance divided

• This factor is based on many incidents
by cube root of TNT mass.
varies from 0.1 to 0.01, 0.2 for
R- Distance
symmetric cloud

• Up to 0.4 for asymmetric cloud

 DISPERSION MODEL

LOGIC DIAGRAM FOR

CALCULATION OF UVCE MASS AND EXTENT OF
FLAMMABLE CLOUD
PRESSURE

ESTIMATE TNT EQUIVALENT

WEIGHT EQUATION

DETERMINE FLASH FIRE

ESTIMATE SCALED DISTANCE
EFFECT ZONE
PARAMETER
FOR A GIVEN OVERPRESSURE

ESTIMATE DISTANCE FOR

SAME GIVEN OVER PRESSURE

DETERMINE UVCE EFFECT

ZONE
Confined explosion

1. Generally a deflagration occurring within a building or structure of poor

strength like silos is less likely to cause offsite problems

2. The effects will be felt within the plant because of the relatively small
quantity of full energy involved however, it is to be noted that the major
threats from confined explosions include shock waves and projectiles.

3. Highly exothermic reaction that have tendency to runaway, thermal

decomposition, combustion reaction can cause confined explosion if
unattended
 EFFECT MODEL

•One step in CPQRAs is to assess the consequences and effects of incident outcomes.
• By assessing the effects on human beings, consequences may be expressed as deaths or
injuries. If physical property, such as structures and buildings, the consequences may be
monetary losses.
• One method of assessing the consequence of an incident outcome is the direct effect model,
which predicts effects on people or structures based on predetermined criteria (e.g., death is
assumed to result if an individual is exposed to a certain concentration of toxic gas )
EFFECT MODEL

• In reality, the consequences may not take the form of discrete functions (i.e., a fixed input
yields a singular output) but may instead conform to probability distribution function.
• The probit (probability unit) method described by Finney (1971) reflects a generalized
time-dependent relationship for any variable that has a probabilistic outcome that can be
defined by a normal distribution.
• The ultimate aim of probit method is to find out the percentage or probability of affected
population and the fatalities resulted from incidental outcomes.
There may be mainly three type of effects
after any accident :

• Toxic effect models are employed to assess the consequences to

➢ TOXICITY EFFECT human health as a result of exposure to a known concentration of
toxic gas for a known period of time.

➢ THERMAL EFFECT
• The objective of the toxic effects model is to determine whether
an adverse health outcome can be expected following a release
➢ EXPLOSION EFFECT and, if data permit, to estimate the extent of injury or fatalities that
are likely to result.
PROBIT FUNCTIONS:

Probit equation is given by : Probit models are used to develop exposure

estimates for situations involving continuous
emissions (approximately constant
Where, concentration over time at a fixed location) or
puff emissions (concentration varying with time
Y = probit at a location).
a, b, n are constants
C = concentration in ppm by volume
te is the exposure time in minute
• It is much more difficult to apply other criteria that are based on a standard exposure
duration (e.g., 30 or 60 min) particularly for puff releases that involve short exposure
times and varying concentrations over those exposure times.

• There are not enough data on toxic responses of humans to directly determine a
substance's hazard potential. Frequently, the only data available are from controlled
experiments conducted with laboratory animals.

• Many releases involve several chemical components or multiple effects. At this time
the cumulative effects of simultaneous exposure to more than one material is not well
understood.
Probit equation is given by : • By using of established toxicity
measures (TLV-TWA, TLV-STELs, TLV-Cs,
IDLHs, PELs etc), concentration and
exposure time can be found out.

Where,
Y = probit • Once the concentration-time information
are determined, the next step is to
a, b, n are constants determine the toxic dose.
C = concentration in ppm by volume
te is the exposure time in minute
 = Toxic Dose (only for continuous releases)

= Toxic Dose for time varying releases

For about 20 commonly used substances, there is some information that can be
applied to a probit function to quantify the number of fatalities that are likely to occur
with a given exposure.
 Example Problem
Determine the likely percentage of fatalities from a 20-min
exposure to a Fixed Concentration 400 ppm of chlorine.
STRENGTH OF PROBIT MODEL:
SOLUTION :
A strength of the probit method is that it
Use the probit expression for chlorine fatalities found in provides a probability distribution of
Table, consequences and it may be applicable
to all types of incidents in CPQRA (fires,
a = - 8.29, b = 0.92, c=2 explosions, toxic releases).
Y = 8.29 + 0.92 In(4002 * 20 ) = 5.49
Y = 5.49
By using the table, the result is 69% i.e 69% of total
population in work area will be affected at given
concentration of chlorine.
THERMAL EFFECTS

PURPOSE: INPUT REQUIREMENT AND

AVAILABILITY:
To estimate the likely injury or damage to
people and objects from thermal
radiation from incident outcomes.
The inputs to most thermal effect models
THEORETICAL FOUNDATION: are the thermal flux level and duration of
exposure. Thermal flux levels are provided
Thermal effects models are solidly based on by one of the fire consequence models and
experimental work on humans, animals, and durations by either the consequence model
structures. A detailed body of theory has (e.g., for BLEVEs) or by an estimate of the
been developed in the area of fire time to extinguish the fire.
engineering of structures.
Two approaches are used: Tabulation method is based on the
experiments. The data on time for pain
• Simple tabulations or charts based on threshold is summarized in Table, it is
experimental results stated that burns follow the pain threshold
"fairly quickly."
• Theoretical models based on probit
models. Experts have compared the solar radiation
intensity on a clear, hot summer day and
suggests thermal criteria to establish
exclusion zones or determine flare height
for personnel exposure.
Effect on structures

The effect of thermal radiation on

structures also depends on whether they are PROBIT EQUATION:
combustible or not and the nature and
duration of the exposure. Thus, wooden
materials will fail due to combustion,
whereas steel will fail due to thermal
lowering of the yield stress.
Experiments have shown that the threshold where Y is the probit , t is the duration of exposure (sec),
of pain occurs when the skin temperature at and I is the thermal radiation intensity (W/m^2).
a depth of 0.1 mm is raised to 450C. When
the skin surface temperature reaches about
550C blistering occurs.
Example
Determine the thermal flux necessary to
cause 50% fatalities for 10 and 100 sec of Estimate the fatalities due to the thermal
exposure.
flux from a BLEVE based on the release of
For 50% fatalities, the value of ‘ Y ’ is 5 from 39,000 kg of flammable material.
the probit table. By putting the values in Assume that 400 workers are distributed
probit equation uniformly from a distance of 75 m to
1000 m from the ground location of the
fireball.

For 50% fatality, the probit variable, Y = 5.0

For t = 10 s, I=61 kW/m2
For t= 10Os, I= ll kW/m2
 The procedure is to divide the distance from 75 to 1000 m into a
number of small shells of equal thickness. Assume that the shell
thickness is small enough that the incident thermal flux at the center
of each cell is approximately constant throughout the cell thickness.
The procedure at each shell is as follows:

1. Compute the distance from ground zero to the center of the current shell.
2. Compute the receptor distance (XC) from the fireball center to the current shell.
3. Compute the receptor distance (XC) from the fireball center to the current shell.
4. Compute the incident heat flux at the shell center.
5. Compute the probit for fatality.

6. Convert the probit to a percentage.

•Determine the total number of workers in the shell.

• Multiply the total number of workers by the percent fatalities to determine

the total fatalities.

•Sum up the fatalities in all shells to determine the total

 EXPLOSION EFFECTS
PURPOSE: To predict the output effect of blast Description of the Technique:
overpressure or projectiles on people or structures.
Most effect models for explosions are
Structures based on either the blast overpressure
alone, or a combination of blast
• Overpressure duration is important for determining overpressure, duration, and/or specific
effects on structures. The positive pressure phase of the impulse. The blast overpressure, impulse
blast wave can last from 10 to 250 mSec, or more, for and duration are determined using a
typical VCEs. variety of models, including
• The same overpressure level can have markedly TNT equivalency, multi-energy. Explosion
different effects depending on the duration. Therefore, effects are classified according to effects
some caution should be exercised in application of on structures and people.
simple overpressure criteria for buildings or structures.
 •It is generally believed that fatalities arising from whole-body
PEOPLE translation are due to head injury from decelerative impact.
People outside of buildings or • Injury to people due to fragments usually occurs either because of
structures are susceptible to penetration by small fragments or blunt trauma by large fragments.
1. direct blast injury (blast • The probit models are simply a convenient method to fit the limited
overpressure) data. Most effect models, particularly for human effects, are based on
limited, and sometimes indirect data.
2. indirect blast injury (missiles or
whole body translation) • The basis for explosion effect estimation is experimental data from
TNT explosions. These data are for detonations and there may be
differences with respect to longer duration deflagration overpressures.
 Effects of Explosion over
Probit equation for ‘structure’ is given by
pressure
Heavy building damage 0.35barg (5psig)

Repairable building 0.10barg 1.5psig

Probit equation for ‘People’ is given by damage

Glass damage to buildings .05barg .7psig

10% of glass broken .02barg .3psig

Where Po = peak overpressure (Pa)

Pressure (psig) Damage

0.02 Annoying noise 137 dB

0.1 Breakage of small windows already under strain
0.7 Minor damage to house structures
1 Partial demolition, uninhabitable
2 Partial collapse of walls and roofs of house
3 Heavy machines of industrial building suffered little damage

4 Cladding of light industrial building ruptured

5 Wooden utility poles snapped tall hydraulic press in building
slightly damaged
5-7 Complete destruction of house

7 Loaded train wagons over turned

7-8 Brick panels failed by shearing or flexure

9 Loaded train boxcars completely demolished

10 Total destruction of buildings very heavy machines survived

Explosion Model

The strength of explosion and A weakness relates to the

projectile effect models is their difference between indoor and
base of experimental data and outdoor effects. People may be
general simplicity of approach. killed indoors due to building
collapse at lower overpressure
than outdoors due to overpressure
alone.
GRACIAS