DEMOGRAPHY

Dr. Bipul Singh

MD Community Medicine and
Tropical Diseases (BPKIHS)
Lecturer, CHS
KAHS
 DEMOGRAPHY
➢ Demography: The word has its origins
from Greek words:

• Demos = “the people”

• Grapho = “drawing”
 WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY ?
➢ The scientific study of human
population

➢ The statistical study of human

population with regard to their size,
composition (by age, sex, marital status
& ethnic origin), distribution, density
& changes to these population, like
changes in their birth rate, death rate
& migration
 DEMOGRAPHY
➢ Father of Demography : John Graunt

▪ An English Statistician

▪ Graunt's work on analyzing mortality data laid the

foundation for the field

▪ He pioneered the use of statistical methods to study

population patterns, identifying trends and
John Graunt
regularities in mortality data. (1620-1674)
 DEMOGRAPHY
➢ 17th century: Graunt analyzed London's
"Bills of Mortality," which recorded deaths
and their causes.

➢ Graunt's work led to the creation of the 1st

life table (showed how long people could
expect to live based on their age)
 DEMOGRAPHY
➢ Graunt`s work established a framework
for understanding population dynamics
and mortality, which are core components
of demography

➢ The term "demography" was not

introduced much later until 1855 by Achille
Guillard.

Achille Guillard (1799-1876)

 DEMOGRAPHY LOOKS AT 3 THINGS
➢ Demography focuses its attention on 3 readily observable human phenomena:

1. Change in population size (growth or decline): How many people are there?

2. Composition of the population: What are their characteristics (age, sex,

education level, occupation, religion, ethnicity, marital status, socioeconomic
status, etc)?

3. Distribution of population in space: Where do they live? (Population

arrangement in space at a given time); Geographically (Eg, Mountains, Hills,
Terai) or among various types (Urban or rural)
WHAT DETERMINES POPULATION CHANGE?
➢ The 5 “demographic processes”
➢ These are the fundamental
processes that drive population
change over time in terms of
their

• Size

• Composition and

• Distribution
 SO,
WHAT ARE THE

5
DEMOGRAPHIC
PROCESSES?
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES

FERTILITY
(BIRTHS)
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES

MORTALITY
(DEATHS)
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES

MIGRATION
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES

SOCIAL
MOBILITY
DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES

MARRIAGE
 5 DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
FERTILITY

MORTALITY SIZE

POPULATION
MIGRATION DISTRIBUTION
CHANGE

SOCIAL MOBILITY
COMPOSITION

MARRIAGE
 EXAMPLE OF OF DEMOGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AT PLAY
➢ In the year 2019, a city X in Nepal had a population of
50,000. Over the course of 5 years, the city welcomed 2500
new residents through births, while 4000 citizens passed
away. 8000 people migrated out to seek opportunities
elsewhere, but 3000 new people arrived to make city X their
home. After 5 years, the town's population will be
…………………
 Eg. OF OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES AT PLAY
➢ Out of the initial 50,000 population, 27,500 were Brahmin/chhetris by ethnicity, 12,500 were
Newars, 7500 were Madhesis, while 2500 were Muslims. Out of the 2500 new births that
had taken place, 800 babies were born in Brahmin/chhetri families, 300 were born in Newar
families, 600 were born in Madhesi families, and 800 were born in Muslim families. Of the
4000 deaths that took place, 1600 were Brahmin/Chhetris, 300 were Newars, 1000 were
Madhesis, and 1100 were Muslims. Of the 8000 people that migrated out of the city, 2500
belonged to Brahmin/Chettri ethnicity, 3000 were Newars, 2000 were Madhesis, and 500
were Muslims. Of the 3000 people that had migrated into city X, 500 were
Brahmin/chhetris, 700 were Newars, 900 were Madhesis, and 900 were Muslims.
The new ethnic composition of city X after 5 years is: ……………………………………
 EXAMPLE OF OF DEMOGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AT PLAY
Ethnic Initial Births Deaths Out In Net
group population (T=2500) (T=4000) Migration Migration population
(Total=50000) (T=8000) (T=3000) after 5
years
Brahmin/ 27,500 + 800 -1600 -2500 +500 24,700
Chhetris
Newars 12,500 +300 -300 -3000 +700 10,200
Madhesi 7500 +600 -1000 -2000 +900 6000
Muslims 2500 +800 -1100 -500 +900 2600
 EXAMPLE OF OF DEMOGRAPHIC
PROCESSES AT PLAY
➢ In City Y, for decades, very few could rise above farming or seasonal labor.
As the younger generation became more educated, they sought better
opportunities, leading to a steady out-migration to cities. While the total
population decreased only slightly, the age composition shifted
dramatically; by 2024, over 60% of the residents were over the age of 50,
as the young population left and the older generation remained, unable or
unwilling to move. EFFECT OF SOCIAL MOBILITY AND MIGRATION
ON AGE COMPOSITION OF A POPULATION
 BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION
➢ If a country has a population ‘t’ persons at the time ‘t’, then size of
population at time ‘t+1’ will be,

Populationt + 1 = Populationt + Natural increaset + Net migrationt

Where,

Natural increaset = Birthst – Deathst

Net migrationt = Immigrationt – Emigrationt

 BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION
➢ Question: If a village has high birth rates and high immigration, but the
total population remains exactly the same as last year, what could be the
reason?
• Answer: The "outflow" (Deaths + Emigration) must be equally high.
• Hence, population size is about the balance of forces [Births, Deaths,
Migration]
 POPULATION
➢ Derived from the word ‘people’
➢ The no. of persons occupying a certain
geographic area, drawing substance from
their habitat, and interacting with each other

➢ The no. of all organisms of the same group

or species, which live in a particular
geographical area, and have the capability
of interbreeding
 POPULATION
➢ Collective group of individuals occupying a particular place at a given time.
 POPULATION STUDIES
➢ Study of population trends, but not limited to numbers of people alone
➢ Involves a broader, interdisciplinary examination of population issues,
incorporating social, economic, environmental, and policy dimensions

Environmental

MULTPLE
NO. OF PEOPLE DIMENSIONS
 POPULATION STUDIES
➢ It uses the measurements from demography to understand the social,
economic, environmental and policy/political factors that influence
population trends, as well as the societal consequences of those trends

➢ Studies the "why“, “so what” & "what happens next" of population change.
 POPULATION STUDIES
➢ Investigate the causes and consequences of population trends, and their
interrelationships with other societal factors

➢ Population studies yield knowledge important for short and long-term

planning, implementation, and evaluation for government projects and
programs

➢ Hence, it is also concerned with the health and well-being of the population.
 POPULATION STUDIES

If Demography tells us the population is growing,

Population Studies tells the government: 'You need to dig 50
more wells, hire 10 more doctors, and build a new road by
2030 so that these people don't go hungry or get sick.'
 POPULATION STUDIES
Key Questions in population studies (The "Why" & "So What"). Eg:

• Why are fertility rates declining/rising in a region? [The ‘Why’]

• If a population has shown ageing, what are the health and economic
consequences of an aging population? [“So what”]

• How do migration patterns affect disease spread or healthcare resource

allocation? [“So what”]

• How do socio-economic factors influence mortality rates? [The ‘Why’]

 POPULATION STUDIES
➢ Tools/Methodology in Population Studies:
• Social demographers use a wider range of
methods, including social surveys,
correlational analysis, and even qualitative
research, to connect demographic data with
social factors like education, income, religion,
and policy.
 POPULATION STUDIES
➢ Tools/Methodology in Population
Studies:
• Thus, population studies integrate
demographic data with insights from
sociology, economics, public health,
epidemiology, geography, and
policy/political analysis.

Interdisciplinary nature of Population

Studies
 DEMOGRAPHY VS POPULATION STUDY
FEATURE DEMOGRAPHY POPULATION STUDIES
Primary Measurement & Analysis of population Interdisciplinary understanding
Focus statistics (size, composition, distribution, of the causes and consequences of
change) and the processes that cause these population trends. [“WHYs and
changes: fertility, mortality, and migration SO WHATs”]
Nature Primarily quantitative, statistical, Broader, qualitative and
mathematical quantitative, contextual.
Key How many? What is the age structure? Why are these trends occurring?
Questions How fast is it changing? What are the What are their impacts on health,
birth/death/migration rates? society, and the environment? How
do policies affect populations?
Core Fertility, Mortality, Migration (the "vital Fertility, Mortality, Migration,
Components events"). PLUS social, economic, env,
political/policy, cultural, and
health factors, etc
 DEMOGRAPHY VS POPULATION STUDY
FEATURE DEMOGRAPHY POPULATION STUDIES
Tools/Methods Censuses, vital registration, Integrate demographic data with
surveys, statistical models, sociological, economic, environmental,
mathematical equations. epidemiological, geographical, and
policy/political analysis.
Scope Narrower, focused on the Wider, focused on the "context" and
"numbers" of population "implications" of population change.
change.
Analogy A precise thermometer A comprehensive diagnostic workup
measuring body temperature. understanding the patient's overall health,
(symptom) lifestyle, and environment.
[Reasons for those symptoms]
AKA FORMAL DEMOGRAPHY SOCIAL DEMOGRAPHY
In essence, demography provides the numbers, while population studies
explore the meanings and implications of those numbers
 Examples of Formal Demography vs Social Demography
(Population studies)

➢ Formal demography is concerned with things like calculating birth

rates, death rates, life expectancy, and population growth
projections.

▪ Thus, a formal demographer might calculate the crude birth rate for a
country or use a population pyramid to project how a decline in fertility
will affect the age structure of a population over the next 50 years.
 Examples of Formal Demography vs Social Demography
(Population studies)

➢ Social demographer may seek to explain WHY fertility rates are

changing, WHY certain groups have higher mortality, or what the
social IMPACT of an aging population will be.

▪ He/She might study how education levels and women's roles in the
workforce influence a country's fertility rate, or how an aging
population impacts healthcare needs and social security systems
The Story of a changing village
Hypothetical village: Ramnagar
The Story of a changing village
• Formal demographers find out
that over the last 20 years, the
proportion of people in
Ramnagar > age of 60 has
doubled
• The birth rate is falling, and young
people are migrating to cities.
• Now more old people and fewer
young people in the village
 The Story of a changing village

▪ Social demographers now need to examine the social, economic,

environmental, and policy factors driving this change, as well as its
implications.

Environmental
 Demographic shift in “Ramnagar” : Causes & Implications
DIMENSION CAUSES CONSEQUENCES
(Why it happened?) (What we see in the village)
SOCIAL • Education & • Isolated Elderly: Many old
Aspirations: Younger people live alone in vacant houses.
generations seek higher • Empty Nest
education and white-collar Syndrome: Increased rates of
careers outside farming. depression and anxiety among the
• Urban Pull: Migration to aged.
cities for lifestyle and social • Loss of Traditional
opportunities. Care: Grandchildren are raised in
•Changing Norms: Weakening cities, breaking intergenerational
of the traditional joint family bonds.
system and the expectation of
filial care.
 Demographic shift in “Ramnagar” : Causes & Implications
CAUSES CONSEQUENCES
(Why it happened?) (What we see in the village)
ECONOMIC • Lack of Local Jobs: Village • Labor Shortage: Farms lack
economy is limited to subsistence workers, leading to fallow land
farming with low cash income. or reduced yields.
• Urban Job Market: Cities • Remittance
offer better-paying jobs in Economy: Village survives on
manufacturing and services. money sent back by children,
• Dual-Income Pressure: Young but local markets shrink.
couples feel they cannot afford to • Financial
support children and ageing Insecurity: Elderly have no
parents simultaneously in an personal income and are
urban setting. dependent on irregular
remittances.
 Demographic shift in “Ramnagar” : Causes & Implications
DIMENSION CAUSES CONSEQUENCES
(Why it happened?) (What we see in the village)
ENVIRON • Rural Neglect: Investment in • Abandoned
MENTAL infrastructure (roads, toilets) Farmland: Fields lie
prioritized in cities over villages uncultivated due to the age
• Agricultural of the remaining population.
Viability: Unpredictable rainfall or
soil degradation pushes youth to seek
urban jobs (environmental push
factor).
• Topography: The village was built
decades ago when only bullock carts
were used; it was not designed with
modern accessibility in mind.
 Demographic shift in “Ramnagar”: Causes & Implications
DIMENS CAUSES CONSEQUENCES
ION (Why it happened?) (What we see in the village)
POLICY • Historical Gap: Lack of policies to • Increased Geriatric
create non-farm rural employment or Burden: PHC (Primary Health
incentivize industries to set up in Centre) now sees more cases of
villages. hypertension, arthritis, and diabetes.
• Healthcare Success: Public health • Demand for New Services: Need
successes (immunization, infection for geriatric clinics, domiciliary
control) increased life expectancy, but visits, and physiotherapy.
were not matched by geriatric care • New Welfare
policies. Schemes: Government eventually
• Lack of Social Security: No pension launches old-age pensions, health
schemes initially, creating schemes and builds community
dependency. senior centers (policy intervention).
 The Takeaway from the Ramnagar story

➢ Instead of just saying "there are more old people," Population

Studies asks: “What were the causes for the greying population?”

➢ Then asks: “How does having more old people change the way our
society functions, how we spend money, and what laws we need to
pass, along with addressing the root causes for this demographic
shift?”
DEMOGRAPHY
Dr. Bipul Singh
MD Community Medicine and
Tropical Diseases (BPKIHS)
Lecturer, CHS
KAHS
 5 DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
FERTILITY

MORTALITY SIZE

POPULATION
MIGRATION DISTRIBUTION
CHANGE

SOCIAL MOBILITY
COMPOSITION

MARRIAGE
BASIC MEASURES
OF POPULATION
CHARACTERISTICS
BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ FREQUENCY

➢ RATE

➢ RATIO

➢ PROPORTION

➢ INDEX
BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ FREQUENCY

• Count (How many)

• The simplest form of quantitative measure

• This is the number of individuals who meet the case definition

• Eg. No. of males = 10,000

• No. of community physicians in Karnali Pradesh = 10

BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ RATE:

• Frequency of an event in a population in relation to time

• Frequency with which birth, death, disease, illness, or other events occur
in a defined population during a specified period of time

• Usually multiplied by a constant, such as 100 or 1000, to get an integer

number
BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ RATE:
• Numerator is the number of cases or events Eg. No. of deaths ; No. of
cases of disease; No. of injuries, etc occurring in a defined population
within a specified period of time (eg. 1 year)
• Denominator is the total population, group of individuals, etc
• Types of rate: Crude and Specific
BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ CRUDE RATE: Eg.

• No. of deaths in a certain municipality in 2022 = 2000

• Total population of that municipality in 2022 = 100,000
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
• Crude Death Rate (CDR) = x 1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

2000
= ( ) x 1000
100,000

• The CDR is 20 per 1000 population per year

BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ SPECIFIC RATE: Eg.

• Number of live births in a year given by 5000 women of age group 25- 29
years = 30

• Total Population of 25-29 years = 5000

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
• Age Specific Birth Rate = x 1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

30
= ( ) x 1000 = 6
5,000

• The ASBR is 6 per 1000 women of age 25-29 years per year
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ RATIO:

• This is the comparison of 2 quantities

• Occurrence of an event in relation to another unrelated event
• The individuals in the numerator are not included in the denominator
𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 (𝑥)
• Ratio is expressed as =
𝑈𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 (𝑦)

• Eg. Male to Female ratio

BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ RATIO:

• Eg. If out of 90 individuals, 60 are females and 30 are males.

• The Ratio of Female to male in this population is given by
𝑥 60
Ratio = = = 2:1
𝑦 30

• Female : male ratio= 2:1

• There are 60 females for 30 males.
BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ PROPORTION
• Ratio that compares a part with the
whole.
• Numerator is some portion of the
denominator

• The denominator is the entire group

• Individuals in numerator are
ALWAYS included in denominator
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ PROPORTION
𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
• Given by =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

• Always expressed as proportion (from 0 to 1) or percentage (from 0% to

100%)
• Thus, Percentage = Proportion x 100
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ PROPORTION
• Eg. If there are a total of 100 patients in a hospital, of which 40 are males and
60 are females
𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝐸𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
• The proportion of male patients =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 (𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)

𝑁𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
= = 40/100 = 0.4
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

• The proportion of male patient is 0.4 or 40%

 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ INDEX = Tools used in demography to simplify complex data
▪ Essentially a ratio or a number that represents a change over time or a
comparison between different groups

▪ Used to :
• Compare demographic characteristics
• Monitor the development dynamics of a single occurrence over time
• Show the change of a figure from one point in time to another
BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ INDEX

▪ For comparing demographic characteristics:

• You can use an index to compare different populations.
• For instance, you could create an index to compare the birth rate of
a rural area to that of an urban area.
• This makes it easier to see which population is growing faster
without having to look at the raw numbers
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ INDEX

▪ For Monitoring Development Dynamics of a single occurrence over time:

• An index can track changes in a specific demographic factor over time.
• For example, an aging index can be used to track the the dymanics of
population aging over time, which has significant implications for
social services, healthcare and the economy
• You can also use indices to monitor changes in things like infant
mortality rates or literacy rates in a country over several decades.
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ INDEX

▪ For Showing Change of a figure from 1 point in time to another:

• The primary function
• Often done by setting a base year with an index value of 100. It
is the reference value
• Any subsequent changes are then expressed as a percentage relative
to that base year
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ INDEX

▪ For Showing Change of a figure from 1 point in time to another:

• For example, if the population of a city grew by 10% in a year,
its population index would change from 100 to 110
• An index value of 130 indicates an increase by 30 % compared to the
value in the reference period
• An index value of 80 indicates a decrease by 20 % compared to the
value in the reference period
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
➢ INDEX

▪ EXAMPLES: HDI AND PQLI

• The Human Development Index (HDI) and the Physical Quality of
Life Index (PQLI) are both used to measure a country's development.
• HDI incorporates Life expectancy at BIRTH, Income and Education
to provide a single measure ranging from 0 to 1. [@LIE]
• PQLI takes Infant mortality rate, Life expectancy at AGE 1, and Literacy
rate to provide a single numerical value between 0 to 100. [@ILL]
 BASIC MEASURES OF POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS

➢ INDEX

▪ EXAMPLES: HDI AND PQLI

• The HDI values can be used to rank countries and monitor
their progress over time in terms of development
• The PQLI can be used to compare the quality of life between
different countries
 IDENTIFY THE BASIC MEASURE

➢ In a specific district, a survey finds that there are 480 hospital beds available
for every 100,000 residents. Which measure is being used here?
➢ Ans = Ratio, as this compares 2 different entities (Beds and People)
where the numerator is not a part of the denominator
 IDENTIFY THE BASIC MEASURE

➢ During the year 2025, a health post recorded 15 deaths due to tuberculosis
out of a total of 150 diagnosed TB patients. This value (10%) represents:
➢ Ans = Proportion, as the 15 people who died are a subset of the 150
people who had the disease, making the numerator part of the
denominator
 IDENTIFY THE BASIC MEASURE

➢ A medical officer states that 'There are 500 active cases of hypertension in
the village today.' This is a:
➢ Ans = Frequency, as this is a simple raw count of a characteristic at a
specific point in time without comparison to a denominator
 IDENTIFY THE BASIC MEASURE

➢ The Body Mass Index (BMI) is calculated using weight and height. This is:
➢ Ans = Index, as this is a standardized indicator derived from 2 different
physical measurements to provide a single score
 IDENTIFY THE BASIC MEASURE

➢ In a classroom of 50 students, 30 are female. The statement '60% of the

students are female' is a:
➢ Ans = Proportion, as the 30 females are a part of the total 50 students,
making it a part-to-whole relationship
 IDENTIFY THE BASIC MEASURE

➢ The number of women who died due to pregnancy-related causes per

100,000 live births during a one-year period.
➢ Ans = Rate (The Maternal Mortality Ratio is technically a rate because it
measures events occurring over a time interval).
 IDENTIFY THE BASIC MEASURE

➢ The total no. of deaths of children under 1 year of age per 1000 live births
in a calendar year
➢ Ans = Rate
DEMOGRAPHY
Dr. Bipul Singh
MD Community Medicine and
Tropical Diseases (BPKIHS)
Lecturer, CHS
KAHS
 5 DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES
FERTILITY

MORTALITY SIZE

POPULATION
MIGRATION DISTRIBUTION
CHANGE

SOCIAL MOBILITY
COMPOSITION

MARRIAGE
FERTILITY
 FERTILITY
➢ Refers to the actual reproductive performance of a population or group of women,
specifically the number of live births that occur.
 FERTILITY
➢ Fertility is determined by both a biological capacity to reproduce (Fecundity) and
the desire for a given family size.

FECUNDITY
+
DESIRE FOR A GIVEN FERTILITY
FAMILY SIZE
 FERTILITY
➢Fecundity: The physiological ability to reproduce or have children.

➢A woman can be fecund (physiologically able to have children) but not fertile
(not have given birth to any children) if she chooses not to have children.

➢Conversely, a fertile woman must be fecund.

➢Sterility: An absent capacity to reproduce – a fecundability of 0

➢Fecundity period = 15 to 49 years

 FERTILITY
➢ Live Birth:
• The complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of
conception, irrespective of the duration of pregnancy, which, after such
separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life, such as beating
of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of
voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut or the
placenta is attached; each product of such a birth is considered liveborn.
[International classification of diseases]
FERTILITY-RELATED
STATISTICS
 FERTILITY-RELATED STATISTICS
➢ Demographers use various measures to quantify fertility, as it is a key
component of population change (along with mortality and migration).

Common measures of fertility

• Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

• Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
• General fertility Rate (GFR)
• Child-Woman Ratio
• Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
• Abortion Rate and Ratio
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• Contraceptive Prevalence Rate
• Total Marital Fertility Rate
• Pregnancy Rate
• Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

CRUDE BIRTH RATE

➢ Crude Birth Rate (CBR): The number of live births per 1,000 total
population in a given year.

CBR= ( 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
) x 1000
= (B/P) x 1000

= …….. per thousand total population/people

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

CRUDE BIRTH RATE

➢ The crude birth rate is considered "crude" because it ignores the age/sex
structure of the population and it doesn't take into account who among
the population were actually able to give birth.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

CRUDE BIRTH RATE

➢ Imagine that you are a health official in Nepal's Sudurpashchim Province and
you need to calculate the crude birth rate for the province for 2025. If the
total population of Sudurpashchim Province (mid-year): 2,750,000 and
Total number of live births in Sudurpashchim Province in 2025: 65,000.
Calculate the CBR.

• Ans = 23.6 births per 1000 people

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GENERAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ General Fertility Rate (GFR): The number of live births per 1,000 women
of reproductive age (typically 15-44 or 15-49) in a given year.

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

• GFR = ( ) x1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 15−49 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

= (B/FP15−49) x 1000

= ………. births per 1,000 women of reproductive age.

• The age range 15-49 is a standard demographic convention that covers the
primary childbearing years for most women.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GENERAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ GFR is a better measure of fertility than CBR
➢ It is a more specific measure of fertility than the CBR because it focuses on
the population most likely to give birth: Women of childbearing age

➢ This makes it a better indicator of actual fertility trends within a population

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GENERAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ If the total number of live births in Nepal in the year 2024 was 574,297
and the total female population of childbearing age (15-49) in Nepal in
the same year was 7,850,000, calculate the General Fertility Rate.

• Ans: 73.2 births per 1,000 women of reproductive age.

• This means that for every 1,000 women aged 15-49, there were about 73 live
births in that year.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GENERAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ This figure provides a more accurate picture of fertility trends compared
to the crude birth rate, which includes the entire population (men, children,
and women outside the childbearing age) in its denominator
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GENERAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ Major weakness of GFR: Not all women are exposed to risk of childbirth

• Even within the 15-49 age range, fertility is not uniform

• The number of births is highest for women in their 20s and early 30s
• If a country has a large number of women in these peak childbearing years
compared to other age groups, its GFR will be higher

• Conversely, if the population has more women in their late 40s, the GFR would
be lower
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

➢ Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): The number of live births to women in
a specific age group (e.g., 20-24 years old) per 1,000 women in that age
group

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑚𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝

ASFR = x 1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑓𝑖𝑐 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

➢ ASFRx = (Bx/FPx) x 1000 = …… per thousand women in that age group

• ASFRx = The fertility rate for a specific age group ‘x’

• Bx = The number of live births to women in age group 'x' during a specific
year.
FPx = The mid-year population of women in age group 'x' during the same
year
• 'x' typically represents age-interval, typically a 5-year age group, such as:
15-19, 20-24,….. 45-49 years
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE ON ASFR
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

➢ If the no. of live births to women aged 25-29 in Nepal in the year 2024 was
160,000, and the total mid-year population of women aged 25-29 in Nepal
that year was 1,200,000, what was the age-specific fertility rate for women
aged 25-29 in Nepal in 2024?

• Ans = 133.3 births per 1,000 women in the age group 25-29
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

➢ This means that for every 1,000 women between the ages of 25 and 29,
there were about 133 live births during that year.

➢ This type of calculation helps to build a more detailed picture of a country's

fertility profile.

➢ The Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) is an even more precise measure

than the General Fertility Rate because it calculates the number of births for
women within a specific age group
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

➢ ASFR is useful to identify the age group with the highest
reproductive potential i.e. the age at which women have the most
children so that family planning measures can be targeted to these
age groups

➢ Also useful to observe changes in fertility patterns across various age

groups, over time.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

Age -Specific Fertility Rate, 2022
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Urban 64 149 104 55 16 4 1
Rural 86 184 124 60 20 6 0
Total 71 160 110 57 17 5 1

Urban Rural Total

Source : NDHS, 2016, Key Findings NDHS, 2022

DEMOGRAPHY
Dr. Bipul Singh
MD Community Medicine and
Tropical Diseases (BPKIHS)
Lecturer, CHS
KAHS
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ The average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if
she were to experience the current age-specific fertility rates throughout
her childbearing years

➢ It is the average number of children number that would be born to a

woman by the time she ended childbearing, if she were to pass through all
her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given
year
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ TFR is obtained by summing single-year age-specific fertility rates
(ASFRs) at a given time.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

Process of Computing TFR

ASFR
Age Group (Births/1000 women)
15-19 81
20-24 187
TFR=(520∗5)/1000
25-29 126
30-34 71
TFR=2600/1000
35-39 36
= 2.6 births per woman
40-45 14
45-49 5
∑ = 520
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

CALCULATE TFR
Age Group ASFR TFR=(440∗5)/1000
15-19 50
TFR=2200/1000
20-24 100
= 2.2 births per woman
25-29 125
30-34 90 This means that, on average,
35-39 55 each woman would have 2.2
40-45 15 children in her lifetime, given
45-49 5 the current fertility rates
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

CALCULATE TFR
Age Group Mid year Female Population Total Live Births
15-19 45000 2250
20-24 50000 5000
25-29 48000 6000
30-34 42000 3780
35-39 35000 1925
40-45 28000 420
45-49 20000 100
TFR = 2.2
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ Unlike the CBR or GFR, the TFR is not affected by the age structure of
the population, making it a powerful predictor of future population
growth.

➢ TFR is not affected by the age structure of the population because it is a

synthetic cohort measure.

➢ This means it is based on the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) of a given

period, rather than the actual number of births in a population.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ TFR is a synthetic rate: is not actually counted, as this would involve waiting until
women complete childbearing

➢ This is a hypothetical measure that provides a useful summary of fertility levels.

➢ Aka ‘Period total fertility rate’ because it is a measure based on fertility rates
observed during a specific, short period of time, typically a single calendar year

➢ The TFR is one of the most useful indicators of fertility because it gives the best
picture of how many children women are currently having.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ It is useful to identify how many children a woman would have on
average, and it gives the magnitude of approximate completed family
size – no. of alive children in a family.

➢ Since TFR is not affected by age composition of the population, the TFR
of several countries can be compared as the measurement of fertility
levels.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ CBR = (8 x TFR) + 1
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ REPLACEMENT LEVEL OF FERTILITY:

▪ For a population to sustain itself, each generation of women must, on

average, give birth to a new generation of women of the same size

▪ If a woman has, on average, exactly one surviving daughter, then the

population's female line is maintained, and the population replaces itself

▪ Replacement level of fertility = TFR at which newborn girls would have

an average of exactly 1 daughter over their lifetimes (i.e., women have just
enough babies to replace themselves)
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ A TFR of 2.1 is the rate that achieves this replacement.
➢ A TFR of around 2.1 children per woman is generally considered to be
replacement level (assuming no net migration and stable mortality rates)
➢ The number 2.1 is the approximate TFR required for a population to stabilize
 Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ The reason it's not simply 2.0 (one child to replace the mother and one for the
father) is due to two factors:
i. Sex ratio at birth
ii. Female Child Mortality
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

i. Sex Ratio at Birth:
- Not all children born are girls
- The natural sex ratio is slightly skewed toward male births
- Thus, more boys are born than girls
- The global average is about 105 boys for every 100 girls
- This means that to ensure one daughter is born, a woman must
have slightly more than two children
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

ii. Female Child Mortality:
• Not every female child born will survive to reach her childbearing
years.
• The TFR must be slightly above 2.0 to account for the infant and child
mortality of girls. The extra 0.1 accounts for this mortality.
• The 2.1 figure is a rough global average that accounts for both these
factors.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

ii. Female Child Mortality:
• This rate ensures that each generation of women is exactly replaced by
the next, leading to a stable population over the long term (ignoring
migration)
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ A TFR above 2.1 indicates that women are having more children than
needed to replace themselves, leading to population growth (ignoring
migration).

➢ A TFR below 2.1 indicates that women are having fewer children than
needed to replace themselves, leading to eventual population decline
(ignoring migration).
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ Replacement TFR for industrialized countries = 2.1
➢ Replacement TFR for developing countries = 2.5-3.3 [higher due to
higher child mortality]
TFR TREND OF NEPAL (1996-2022)
 Remember
TFR Population Demographic and Health System
Level Trend Impact
Youth bulge; needs more
> 2.1 Growing
schools/pediatricians
= 2.1 Stable "Zero Population Growth" (eventually)
Aging population; needs more geriatric
< 2.1 Shrinking
care
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL MARITAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ A measure of fertility that is specific to married women.
➢ Average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime if
she were to remain married and experience the current age-specific
marital fertility rates throughout her childbearing years.

ASMFR = The Age-Specific

Marital Fertility Rate.
 Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL MARITAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ ASMFR calculates the number of live births per 1,000 currently
married women within a specific age group.

𝐵𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑴𝑨𝑹𝑹𝑰𝑬𝑫 𝑾𝑶𝑴𝑬𝑵 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥+5

➢ ASMFR = x 1000
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑴𝑨𝑹𝑹𝑰𝑬𝑫 𝑾𝑶𝑴𝑬𝑵 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑝 𝑥 𝑡𝑜 𝑥+5
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL MARITAL FERTILITY RATE

ASMFR (Births per 1000
Assuming these ASMFRs for
Age Group married women)
Nepal, calculate its TMFR
15-19 150
20-24 250
25-29 180 TMFR=(785∗5)/1000
30-34 110 TMFR=3925/1000
35-39 65 TMFR = 3.925
40-45 20 children per woman
45-49 10
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

TOTAL MARITAL FERTILITY RATE

➢ This means that if a woman in Nepal were to remain married throughout
her childbearing years and experience these rates, she would have
approximately 3.9 children

➢ ASMFRs will be higher than the general ASFRs because they exclude
unmarried women who are not giving birth.

➢ TMFR is always higher than the TFR because the TFR includes all women
(married and unmarried), which dilutes the rate.
DEMOGRAPHY
Dr. Bipul Singh
MD Community Medicine and
Tropical Diseases (BPKIHS)
Lecturer, CHS
KAHS
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ The average number of daughters a woman would have over her lifetime if
she experienced the current age-specific fertility rates of the given year,
with the assumption of no mortality (i.e she survives through all of her
childbearing years)

• This rate is like the TFR, except that it counts only daughters born
• GRR literally measures “reproduction” i.e., a woman reproducing herself
by having a daughter
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ The GRR completely ignores the fact that some women die before or
during their childbearing years

➢ This is why the GRR is always a hypothetical measure.

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ Interpretation: Example-

• It was reported that the GRR of Nepal was 1.10 during the year 2014.

• That means that, if 2014 fertility levels were to continue, a woman in so

would produce 1.1 daughters, on average, during her lifetime.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ Formula for GRR: Two formulae for GRR

• Formula 1: Similar to TFR, but it uses only female births

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

ASFR of female births
(Female Births/1000 women)
Age Group for each 5-year age group CALCULATE GRR

15-19 24
20-24 48
25-29 60 ∑ ASFR FB = 213
30-34 45 GRR = (213x5)/1000
35-39 27 GRR = 1.065 female
40-45 7 births per woman
45-49 2
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ The GRR for this example is approximately 1.07
➢ This means that if a woman were to live through her entire
reproductive life, she would have an average of about 1.07 daughters.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

Formula 2 for GRR:

➢ GRR = ∑ASFR × Proportion of female births to total births

𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒐. 𝒐𝒇 𝑭𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆 𝑩𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔 𝒕𝒐 𝒘𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝟏𝟓−𝟒𝟗 𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑
➢ GRR = TFR x
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑳𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝑩𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ If Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFR) (hypothetical data for women aged 15-
49) are as shown in the table and 49% of births are females, calculate the GRR

Age Group ASFR (Births per 1000 woman)

15-19 50
20-24 100
25-29 125
30-34 90
35-39 55
40-45 15
45-49 5
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

Age ASFR (Births per TFR = (440 x 5)/1000 =2.2
Group 1000 woman)
GRR = TFR x proportion of female births
15-19 50
20-24 100 GRR = 2.2 x 0.49 = 1.078
25-29 125 The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) using
30-34 90
this method is approximately 1.08.
35-39 55
40-45 15 • If a woman were to live through her
45-49 5 entire reproductive life, she would have an
∑ ASFR= 440 average of about 1.08 daughters.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ The TFR of Nepal is 2.1 (2021). The number of births is shown gender-
wise in the table. Calculate the GRR.

No. of Male and Female Births, 2021

Sex No of Births
Male 219317
Female 191842
Total 411159
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

𝑵𝒐.𝒐𝒇 𝑭𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆 𝑩𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔
➢GRR = TFR x
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑩𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔

𝟏𝟗𝟏𝟖𝟒𝟐
= 2.1 x
𝟐𝟏𝟗𝟑𝟏𝟕

= 0.98 ~ 1 female birth (daughter) per woman

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ GRR = 1.0 means each woman is replaced by exactly one daughter,
indicating a population that would eventually stabilize (assuming no
migration or mortality).

➢ GRR > 1.0 suggests population growth over generations (more than
one daughter per woman).

➢ GRR < 1.0 implies a declining population over time.

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ When the GRR is less than 1, it means that each generation of women
is having fewer daughters than the previous generations.

➢ This indicates that the population is not replacing itself and is experiencing
a decline in population size over time.

➢ A GRR of less than 1 is considered a cause for concern as it indicates

a declining population size, which can have implications for the economy,
social welfare, and other factors.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ A GRR of exactly 1.0 would signify a perfect replacement of the female
population, but since not all women survive to the end of their
childbearing years, a GRR slightly above 1.0 is needed for replacement
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ Limitations:

• Assumes constant fertility (no future changes)

• Ignores mortality (real replacement requires NRR)

• Migration effects are not considered

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

➢Net Reproduction Rate (NRR): No. of daughters a newborn girl will bear
during her lifetime (reproductive age), assuming fixed age-specific fertility
and mortality rates.

➢NRR is a measure of the extent to which mothers produce female infants who
survive to replace them.

➢It is the average number of daughters a woman would have who survive to
the average age of childbearing and have their own daughters.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

➢Similar to GRR, but it also takes into account the mortality of women from
birth through their childbearing years, indicating whether a generation is
replacing itself.

➢ Hence, it is always lower than GRR

➢ The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is a refined measure of fertility that

accounts for both the number of daughters a woman has and the probability
of those daughters surviving to the end of their reproductive years
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

➢Improved method over GRR (because it includes mortality, as not all of the
females born will survive till child-bearing age)
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ 2 formulae:
▪ Formula 1 for NRR is:

Where, WSFR = Women Specific Ferility Rate

𝑭𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆 𝑩𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔
= x 1000
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑭𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆 𝑷𝒐𝒑𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 (𝟏𝟓−𝟒𝟗 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒔)

S= Survival rate = The proportion of females who survive from birth to the end of
their reproductive years, indicating the probability of surviving to reproductive age

i = magnitude of age class (typically 5 years).

Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

Age group Female Female Survival
population Births rate
15-19 3000 50 0.90 CALCULATE NRR
PER WOMAN
20-24 2500 400 0.90
25-29 2200 300 0.80
30-34 2000 100 0.80
35-39 1800 60 0.80
40-44 1500 30 0.80
45-49 1200 10 0.70
 Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)
NET REPRODUCTION RATE
Age Female Female Survival WSFR WSFR x S
group population Births rate
15-19 3000 50 0.90 16.67 14.99
20-24 2500 400 0.90 160 144 NRR = 5 x 356.6
= 1782.8 Female
25-29 2200 300 0.80 136.36 109.08
births per 1000
30-34 2000 100 0.80 50 40 women of
35-39 1800 60 0.80 33.3 26.66 childbearing age
40-44 1500 30 0.80 20 16
NRR per woman =
45-49 1200 10 0.70 8.33 5.83 1782.8/1000
∑=356.6 = 1.7828 daughters
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ This means that, on average, a woman would have 1.8 daughters who
survive to the average age of childbearing to have their own children.

➢ Therefore, the NRR accounts for both the number of daughters a woman
has and the probability of those daughters surviving to the end of their
reproductive years.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

➢ Formula 2 for NRR is:
NRR = 𝑷𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒐𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆 𝒃𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔 x TFR x S

𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒐. 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆 𝒄𝒉𝒊𝒍𝒅 𝒃𝒐𝒓𝒏 𝒕𝒐 𝒘𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒏 𝒊𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝟏𝟓−𝟒𝟗 𝒂𝒈𝒆−𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒖𝒑

= x TFR x S
𝑻𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒍𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒃𝒊𝒓𝒕𝒉𝒔

➢ S= Survival rate = The proportion of females who survive from birth to the
end of their reproductive years, indicating the probability of surviving to
reproductive age.
Fertility-related statistics (Contd.)

NET REPRODUCTION RATE

If Interpretation Effect on
NRR= population size
< 1.0 Declining reproduction rate; The reproductive Decrease
performance of the population is said to be below
replacement level
> 1.0 Increasing reproduction rate Increase
= 1.0 Each generation of women is exactly reproducing itself Almost
or replacing itself. Each mother is replaced by exactly constant.
1 daughter who survives to have her own children. The
female population is maintained exactly (remains
stationary) and population remains almost constant.
Equivalent to attaining approximately the 2-child norm