Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Hydrogen Refueling Infrastru

Mariam el jamal

Thesis for the Master’s Program in Sustainable Energy

Graduate School
Izmir University of Economics
Izmir
2024
 Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Hydrogen Refueling Infrastru

Mariam el jamal

THESIS ADVISOR: Dr. Mine Güngörmüler

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the Graduate School of Izmir University of
2024
Economics
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 ABSTRACT

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Hydrogen Refueling Infrastru

El Jamal, Mariam

Master’s Program in Sustainable Energy

Advisor: Dr. Mine Güngörmüler

[Month], [Year]

[ABSTRACT TEXT – single paragraph - max 250 words]

Keywords: [Keywords].

iv
 ÖZET

[THESIS TITLE - TURKISH]

El Jamal, Mariam

[Program Name - Turkish] Yüksek Lisans Programı

Tez Danışmanı: [Title and Name of Thesis Advisor]

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[ÖZET TEXT – single paragraph - max 250 words]

Anahtar Kelimeler: [Keywords - Turkish].

v
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
ÖZET
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1.

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

The maritime shipping industry, responsible for approximately 3% of global

greenhouse gas emissions, will soon be under greater scrutiny as the world increases
up efforts to combat climate change. Without significant intervention, shipping
emissions might reach 10% of the planet's total by 2050. While regulatory
organizations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) have
established long-term decarbonisation targets, existing efforts fall short of meeting
the Paris Agreement's climate objectives. (Transport & Environment,2023).
The Paris Agreement is an essential global treaty that was approved in December
2015 during the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris, France. The
agreement aims to mitigate climate change by limiting global temperature increases
to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the agreement aims to make
additional measures to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C. At the same time, in line
with the Paris Agreement treaty, governments, international organizations, and
organizations such as the EU began to declare a net-zero emission strategy known as
the 'EU Green Deal', with the goal of becoming the first continent to be net-zero
carbon emitter by 2050. (United Nations).
With the Paris Agreement pushing for all sectors to step up for global climate goals,
reducing shipping emissions has been a tough challenge. On one side, countries like
those in the European Union and Pacific island nations advocated for quick, binding
cuts to meet these climate targets. But others, particularly the BRICS countries
(Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), declined. Their argument stated that
such ambitious targets would hinder their economic growth. Instead, they pushed for
a gradual strategy focusing on emissions monitoring over rapid reduction. This
division has made it difficult to align global shipping with the Paris climate goals.
(Transport & Environment, 2023)
From the latest IEA data 2023, emissions in 2022 from the international shipping
sector increased by 5%, continuing the rebound from the significant decrease in
2020, and have now returned to 2017-2018 levels.

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Figure 1. CO2 emissions from international shipping in the Net Zero Scenario,
2000-2030 (Source: IEA,2023)

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Figure 2. Carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping worldwide from
1970 to 2023(in million metric tons). (Source: Statista, September 2024)

Figure 2 shows the worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping
from 1970 to 2023. The emissions increased to 703.6 million metric tons, as they
were 698.6 million metric tons in 2022.

1.1 The Role of the Maritime Industry in Shipping

The marine industry serves as a vital component to the international trade system
transporting goods throughout the world. The shipping business is critical to global
trade because it connects global markets, promotes economic growth, and ensures the
seamless transportation of commodities. The industry that uses both large container
ships and smaller cargo vessels to transport raw materials, completed products, and
commodities plays a crucial role in global trade, facilitating the transportation of
diverse goods. This incredibly efficient mode of transportation enables enterprises to
conduct cross-border trade, acquire access to a wide range of markets, and create
economic opportunities.

The marine industry's supremacy in worldwide shipping is due in large part to its
cost-effectiveness. Shipping provides a cost-effective alternative for delivering big
volumes of goods over long distances. Shipping is typically less expensive than air
freight or land transportation, making it an appealing alternative for businesses
involved in international trade. The maritime industry also plays an important role in
promoting global connectivity. Shipping routes connect important economic
sites, forming a complex network that facilitates international trade. This
interconnection allows businesses to expand their scope while also strengthening
governments' economic relationships with trading partners.
Write a bit more
(NORTHEAST MARITIME INSTITUTE, 2024)

1.2. Current Challenges in the Maritime Shipping Sector

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The maritime shipping business has issues related to sustainability, economic
viability, and technological innovation.

One of the most pressing concerns is the environmental impact of maritime

transportation. Despite ongoing efforts to prevent negative impacts, the maritime
environment continues to degrade. Ship emissions are a key contributor to severe air
pollution, which harms the health of those who live near ports. These pollutants can
cause major respiratory problems and other health issues, emphasizing the critical
need for cleaner industry technology and practices.
Economy wise, the oil prices fluctuations have had a negative impact on the
maritime sector in several countries. The Norwegian maritime industry, for example,
has seen a reduction in investments in maritime equipment and shipbuilding as oil
prices have fluctuated. Between 2014 and 2016, oil prices dropped significantly,
resulting in lower investments in marine equipment and shipbuilding. This economic
instability makes it difficult for businesses to remain competitive in a global market,
as they struggle to attract long-term investments during financial crises. Adapting to
new technologies poses another challenge. While innovations can improve
transparency and accountability in the shipping industry
it is unclear whether the industry has the skills and capabilities to
effectively leverage these improvements. Implementing new technologies is essential
to increase operational efficiency and reduce environmental impact, but it
also requires a workforce that is prepared and capable of managing these changes.
Moreover, in order to shift away from the reliance on conventional fuels such as oil
and gas, the maritime sector is under intense pressure. In addition to addressing
environmental concerns, this change aligns with international sustainable
development objectives, like creating net-zero emissions zones in specific areas by
2026. The problem is to strike a balance between current economic survival and the
long-term objective of sustainable development.

Among the 17 sustainable development goals, there are 6 main goals that are greatly
connected with the maritime sector. (Environmental Economics, 2019)

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Figure 3. Sustainable development goals related to the maritime industry (Source:
Environmental Economics, 2019)

2. Hydrogen as a Maritime Fuel

2.1. Introduction to Hydrogen

Hydrogen is a colourless, odorless, tasteless, non-toxic, nonreactive, and highly

flammable gas having an extensive flammability range. It is typically found naturally
as a compound of water or methane. Hydrogen can be produced from various
resources such as biomass, natural gas, nuclear power or renewables like wind and
solar. Hydrogen acts as a flexible energy carrier and helps tackle multiple important
energy challenges. Today, industries actively use hydrogen primarily in the refining
and chemical sectors and they produce it using fossil fuels like coal and natural gas
so it is responsible for important annual CO2 emissions. (IEA,2023)

In 2022, less than 2% of Europe’s energy consumption was accounted for by

hydrogen and chemical products were primarily produced using it, such as plastics
and fertilisers. Ninety-six percent of this hydrogen was produced using natural gas
and this production resulted in important amounts of CO2 emissions.
The EU will develop renewable hydrogen as a priority. The REPowerEU Strategy of
2022 seeks to produce 10 million tonnes while importing 10 million tonnes by 2030.
Renewable hydrogen will satisfy around 10% of the EU's energy demands by 2050,

xi
while also significantly reducing carbon emissions in energy-intensive industries and
the transportation sector. Hydrogen is an important part of the EU's energy transition,
supporting net-zero and sustainable development goals. (European
Commission,2023)

Since early 2020, Turkey has been contemplating the role of hydrogen in its energy
future, with plans to develop a hydrogen strategy in the next months. Unlike many
other countries examining the role of hydrogen, Turkey only recently (October 2021)
accepted the Paris Agreement on climate change, and its interest is primarily
motivated by geopolitical, strategic, and energy security concerns. With concerns
about the high amount of imported energy, notably Russian gas, it sees hydrogen as
part of a policy to expand domestic energy generation. Turkey already has a
relatively high share of renewable power generation, particularly hydro, and recent
solar auctions have resulted in cheap pricing, encouraging a focus on potential green
hydrogen generation. (Rzayeva., et al. n.d.)

2.2. The Role of Hydrogen as a Maritime Fuel

Hydrogen has the lowest atomic weight of any substance, hence it has an extremely
low density in both gas and liquid form. Despite being three times more abundant
than helium, the second most common element in the universe, hydrogen only makes
up 0.14 percent of the Earth's crust by weight. (Lee Jolley, 2024)
There are various types of hydrogen; based on the energy input and manufacturing
process, hydrogen may be divided into three primary types. Grey hydrogen, which is
dependent on fossil fuels, makes up the majority of hydrogen produced nowadays.
Green hydrogen, which makes use of renewable energy, is essential to the
development of low-carbon hydrogen. To enhance green hydrogen
production methods and make it cost-competitive with fossil fuels, ongoing
investment in hydrogen research and development is necessary.

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2.3. Introduction to Hydrogen

Grey, blue, and green hydrogen are the three primary types of hydrogen.

According to the method of production and the energy input, three main types of
hydrogen can be distinguished. Currently, most of the hydrogen being produced is
grey hydrogen; which means it is reliant on fossil fuels. There is a significant
emphasis being placed on green hydrogen as it focuses on renewable sources of
energy in the future. As the development of fuel cells for hydrogen vehicles
progresses, more resources are needed for hydrogen research and development
especially in regards to green hydrogen production techniques in order to be
competitive against fossil fuels.

The wide range of hydrogen's applications, combined with expanding worldwide

interest, make hydrogen a very promising tool with the potential to disrupt the
natural resources industry. To function, the hydrogen economy requires a system of
taxes that allows for a differentiation of the carbon implications of hydrogen
production. To this purpose, a colour-coding system in the hydrogen economy was
developed, encouraging the National Grid Group to classify nine types of hydrogen,
including brown and pink hydrogen (The National Grid, 2024). However, the
following three are widely accepted:

1. Grey Hydrogen: Grey hydrogen is the type of hydrogen produced by the

vast majority of plants worldwide today. The grey hydrogen input generates a
primary product by economically recreating semi-hydrogen gas with steam
methane. Hydrogen's dependency on fossil fuels is concerning for the
environment. Every year, hydrogen production emits over 830 million tons of
carbon dioxide (CO2). (Koons, E.,2024).
2. Blue Hydrogen: Blue hydrogen is the end result of attempts to decarbonize
gray hydrogen production. It refers to hydrogen created from natural gas, a
fossil fuel; however, most of the CO2 emitted during the process would be
caught and stored underground (carbon sequestration) or bound in a solid
product (such as bricks) and utilized (Hydrogen Europe, 2024). (CCS (carbon
capture and storage) technology and CCU (carbon capture and utilization)
work together to reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions. However, the

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 carbon capture rate of blue carbon projects varies widely, with some
achieving less than 50% and others exceeding 90%. (Koons, E.,2024)

3. Green Hydrogen: Green hydrogen uses energy from renewable energy

sources such as solar, wind, and hydro to generate hydrogen via electrolysis.
It is the only method of producing low-carbon hydrogen. The entire process
produces no CO2, making green hydrogen the most ideal choice. ((Koons,
E.,2024). Renewable hydrogen costs more than blue hydrogen, but prices are
becoming more competitive. Although "green" hydrogen is commonly
associated with electrolytic hydrogen produced using electricity generated
from renewable energy sources, it can also refer to hydrogen produced using
other renewable sources such as biogas, biomethane, bio-waste, and other
renewable sources. These technologies are less common than water
electrolysis, although they also produce very little or no emissions.
(Hydrogen Europe, 2024)

2.4. Hydrogen Production Methods

Figure 1 illustrates different hydrogen production methods depending on their energy

sources, which are divided into renewable and non-renewable sources used for
production. On the renewable side, the methods used to produce hydrogen are
electrolysis, photo electrochemical water splitting, biomass gasification and
thermochemical water splitting. On the other hand, the non-renewable methods used
to produce hydrogen are steam methane reforming (SMR), which mostly rely on
fossil fuels. Both methods have the same goal; which is to produce hydrogen energy,
which is both versatile and clean.

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 Figure 1. Hydrogen Production Methods (Nnabuife et al. 2023)

2.4.1. Steam Methane Reforming

Natural gas reforming is an advanced technology that relies on the existing natural
gas pipeline delivery infrastructure (U.S. Department of Energy, 2024).
Methane is a colourless, odourless, and extremely combustible chemical derived
from both renewable (organic matter and animals) and non-renewable sources (coal
production and fossil fuels). Steam methane reforming, one of the three hydrocarbon
reforming technologies, is the cheapest and most extensively used way of producing
hydrogen from natural gas. Other processes used in this technology include partial
oxidation and auto thermal reforming. Methane accounts for a considerable amount
of natural gas and is a key contributor to global warming. Thus, producing hydrogen
gas from methane offers a method to reducing its accumulation in the atmosphere (Di
Giuseppe et al., 2022). In steam-methane reforming, methane reacts with steam
under 3–25 bar pressure (1 bar = 14.5 psi) in the presence of a catalyst to produce
hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and a relatively small amount of carbon dioxide. Steam

xv
reforming is endothermic, which means heat must be given to the process for the
reaction to occur (U.S. Department of Energy, 2024).

Figure 3 represents the process of sulfur removal, steam reforming, shift reaction,
and pressure swing absorption. The stages that define this process are the mixing of
methane with steam at high temperatures and pressures in the presence of a catalyst
(Equation (1)) and a shift reaction in which carbon dioxide produced during the
process reacts with steam to produce more hydrogen gas (Equation (2)).

C H 4 + H 2 O→CO+3 H 2
( 1)

CO+ H 2 O →C O2+ H 2
( 2)

Figure 3. Simplified steam methane reforming process (Di Giuseppe et al., 2022).

This technology has large-scale production capabilities and a well-developed

infrastructure. It is also cost-effective. However, this approach remains mainly reliant
on fossil fuels, resulting in the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and
therefore raising carbon dioxide levels. (Di Giuseppe et al., 2022).

2.4.2. Electrolysis

Electrolysis is an applicable method for producing carbon-free hydrogen from

renewable and nuclear sources. Electrolysis is the use of electricity to separate water
into hydrogen and oxygen. Renewable electricity, such as wind and solar, can be
used for electrolysis to produce green [Link] reaction occurs in a device
known as an electrolyzer. Electrolyzers, like fuel cells, are made up of an anode and
cathode separated by an electrolyte. Different electrolyzers work in different ways,

xvi
 due to the varied types of electrolyte materials used and the ionic species they
conduct (U.S. Department of Energy, 2024).
The most often utilized electrolysis technologies are alkali (AE), proton exchange
membrane (PEM), and solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC). Electrolysis techniques
generate pure hydrogen at the cathode and separate it from water and oxygen using
various ways. Electrolysers convert renewable electricity into hydrogen, which may
be stored, transported, and distributed for many applications. Green hydrogen refers
to electrolysers that operate using renewable electricity. Electrolysers are now
accessible at small scales (less than 5 MW), however larger demonstration projects
of up to 10 MW are being studied. Alkali electrolyzers are commonly used in large-
scale systems because to their long lifespan and low cost (Nazir et al., 2020).

Feature PEM Electrolyzers Alkaline Electrolyzers Solid Oxide Electrolyzers

Electrolyte Solid Plastic Liquid alkaline solution or Solid ceramic material
Membrane solid AEM
Ion Transport Protons (H+) Hydroxide Ions (OH-) Oxygen Ions (O2)
Operating 70°–90°C Less than 100°C 700°–800°C (500°–600°C
for advanced)
Temperature

Anode Reaction 2H₂O → O₂ + 4H⁺ + 4OH⁻ → O₂ + 2H₂O + 4e⁻ 2O²⁻ → O₂ + 4e⁻

4e⁻

Cathode Reaction 4H⁺ + 4e⁻ → 2H₂ 2H₂O + 2e⁻ → H₂ + 2OH⁻ H₂O + 2e⁻ → H₂ + O²⁻

Table 1. Comparison of PEM, Alkaline, and Solid Oxide Electrolyzers (U.S.

Department of Energy, 2024).

A polymer electrolyte (PEM) electrolyzer uses solid plastic as an electrolyte. In these

systems, water reacts with the anode to produce oxygen, hydrogen ions (protons),
and electrical current. Hydrogen ions move through the membrane to the cathode,
where they mix with electrons from the external circuit to produce hydrogen gas.
PEM electrolyzers work at moderate temperatures, usually between 70°C and 90°C.
They are compact and efficient, making them excellent for use with variable energy

xvii
sources such as renewables. But they confront problems such as the high cost of
components, particularly the catalysts and membranes employed in the system.

The alkaline electrolyzer relies on the movement of the electrolyte in hydroxide ions
(OH⁻). The cathode generates hydrogen, whereas the anode generates oxygen. These
electrolyzers are mature commercial technologies that normally operate at
temperatures below 100°C. They are affordable and have a simple design, making
them appropriate for a wide range of applications. However, conventional alkaline
electrolyzers take longer to respond to varied current input than PEM systems, and
the liquid electrolyte can be difficult to handle and maintain. Newer solid-state AEM
designs seek to solve these difficulties.
Solid oxide electrolyzers use a ceramic electrolyte to conduct oxygen ions (O²⁻) at
high temperatures (700° to 800°C). At the cathode, the vapour combines with
electrons, producing hydrogen gas and negatively charged oxygen ions. These ions
flow through the ceramic sheet and react with the anode, producing oxygen and
releasing electrons to the external circuit. The new design of proton ceramic use aims
to reduce operating temperatures to 500°-600°C. High-temperature
processes enable solid oxide electrolysers to incorporate heat from external sources,
lowering the electrical energy required for hydrogen production. Despite their high
efficiency, these systems pose obstacles due to material durability and the energy
required to sustain such a high temperature (U.S. Department of Energy, 2024).

2.4.3. Biomass Gasification

Gasification is defined as a thermochemical reaction between an organic molecule

and a gasifier (oxygen, steam, air, and carbon dioxide). Organic matter can be
obtained from both renewable and nonrenewable sources, including agricultural
waste and coal. Gasification of materials derived from renewable and nonrenewable
sources has had varying environmental consequences, with the latter being regarded
a more sustainable alternative. This section focuses on the gasification of biomass.
Biomass can take many different forms, including wood and forestry left-overs,
agricultural residues, and algae. Biomass gasification converts these ingredients into
synthetic gas (syngas). This is a high-temperature occurring at temperature ranges of

xviii
700–1200 °C reaction caused by a partial oxidation process that produces hydrogen,
carbon monoxide, methane, and other trace gases.

Figure 3. Biomass gasification process (Di Giuseppe et al., 2022).

2.4.4. Photochemical Water Splitting

Photoelectrochemical water splitting is a technique that uses sunlight to convert

water into hydrogen and oxygen using a semiconductor. The overall reaction process
is shown below, where hv refers to one incident photon.

hv 1
H2 O H 2 + O2
→ 2
( 1)
The half equations for the entire reaction are represented as:

1 2
+ ¿+ O ¿
H 2 O→ 2 H 2
(2)
1
−¿→ H¿
+¿+e 2 2
(3 )
H
¿

This is accomplished using a specialised device known as a photoelectrochemical

cell, which consists of a photoelectrode, an electrolyte, and a counter electrode. The
benefits of employing this approach to produce hydrogen gas include the direct use
of

xix
sunlight, a renewable resource, as well as the method's scalability and applicability.
The disadvantages of this approach include low efficiency, irregular solar energy,
and stability issues with efficient photoelectrodes (Di Giuseppe et al., 2022).

2.4.5. Thermochemical Water Splitting

Thermochemical water splitting, also known as thermolysis, is the process of

decomposing water into hydrogen and oxygen using heat. It is regarded the most
environmentally beneficial technique for producing hydrogen gas in terms of CO2
emissions and acidification potential. It typically entails a number of thermochemical
cycles in which materials undergo chemical reactions at higher temperatures. The
sulphur-iodine chemical cycle is one of the most commonly utilized cycles to
represent this thermochemical reaction. It's worth mentioning that the sulphur-iodine
cycle is simply one type of thermochemical water-splitting reaction. There are
various thermochemical cycles with distinct sets of reactions and operating
parameters. It starts with the breakdown of sulphuric acid at 300 °C to 500 °C, which
produces water without a catalyst. SO3 is then separated at 800 °C to 900 °C to
create oxygen, followed by sulphuric acid from the subsequent reaction, and
ultimately hydrogen from iodine decomposition.

Figure 8. Thermochemical water splitting using iodine-sulphur cycle (Di Giuseppe

et al., 2022).

3. Emission Scopes in Maritime Shipping

xx
Although it is one of the most energy-efficient forms of transportation and plays a
crucial role in the EU economy, marine transportation is also a significant and
expanding source of greenhouse gas emissions. Global shipping emissions totalled 1,
076 million tons of CO2 in 2018, accounting for approximately 2.9% of total human-
caused emissions (European Commission, 2024).

According to estimates, these emissions might rise by up to 130% from 2008 levels
by 2050 (International Maritime Organization, 2020). If the climate change impact of
shipping activities increases as expected, it will undermine the Paris Agreement's
objectives: a worldwide framework to avoid severe climate change by limiting global
warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to hold it to 1.5°C. Maritime
transport accounts for 3 to 4% of the EU's total CO2 emissions, or more than 124
million tons in 2021.

To considerably reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international

shipping, extensive worldwide initiatives are needed. In July 2023, the International
Maritime Organisation (IMO) took a step forward by committing to new targets for
GHG emissions reductions, as well as developing and adopting a set of measures to
achieve these reduction targets by 2025. The coming years will reveal which actions
will be chosen and implemented, as well as whether they will be sufficient to meet
these targets and the Paris Agreement's objectives (European Commission, 2024).

3.1. The EU Emission Trading System (ETS)

The EU ETS is a "cap and trade" arrangement in which a limit (the cap) is imposed
on the right to release designated pollutants across a geographical area, and
businesses can exchange emission rights within that area. It is a critical tool for
lowering greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) from energy
generation and industries. The EU ETS makes investing in environmentally friendly
technologies financially attractive to industries (Envrionmental Protection Agency,
n.d.)
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has been expanded to include CO2
emissions from all large ships (those weighing 5,000 gross tons or more) entering EU
ports, regardless of the flag they carry, as of January 2024.
The system covers emissions from trips starting or finishing outside the EU are 50%,

xxi
whereas emissions between two EU ports and within EU ports are 100%. Third
countries can take appropriate action for the remaining share of emissions (European
Commission, 2024).

xxii
xxiii
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[Link]

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