MODULE 4
PROBABILITY AND SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS
• Define probability and understand its fundamental concepts.
• Calculate a priori and posteriori probabilities
• Understand the visual representation of probabilities in different data
distributions.
• Differentiate between continuous and discrete probability
distributions.
• Define and differentiate between population and sample.
• Identify and apply various sampling techniques
Importance of
Probability and
Sample
Distribution in
Psychological
Statistics
1. The Bridge from Sample to Population
In psychology, we almost never have the
luxury of testing [Link] in a specific group
(Population). Instead, we work with a Sample.
- Probability allows us to determine how well our small group
represents the whole.
- Sampling Distributions tell us how much "error" to expect when
we move from our data to a general psychological theory.
Importance of
Probability and
Sample Distribution in
Psychological
Statistics
2. Validating Psychological Testing
When we administer a standardized test, like an intelligence or personality
scale, we are relying on probability.
We use Normal Distributions to determine where an individual’s score falls
compared to the general public.
Without these distributions, we couldn't say if a score is "average," "superior," or
"delayed."
Importance of
Probability and
Sample Distribution in
Psychological
Statistics
3. Making "Inferences" with Confidence
Psychologists use Inferential Statistics to test hypotheses
(ex. "Does this therapy reduce anxiety?").
Probability helps us calculate the P-value. This value tells us if the improvement
we saw in a patient was likely due to the therapy, or if it was just a random
"fluke" or coincidence.
Lesson 1. Probability
Probability is the tool that allows us to move from
"There is a statistically
"I think this
significant likelihood that
happens” this happens."
Probability
The concept of probability has been the subject of intense study
for more than 400 years, dating back to some of the early writings
by the mathematicians Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal. This
process has led to a variety of different probability definitions.
Probability may be approached in two ways:
1. From a priori or classical viewpoint – this means that which can be deduced from reason alone,
without any experience.
The symbol p(A) is read “the probability of occurrence of event A.” This, the equation states that the
probability of occurrence of event A is equal to the number of events classifiable as A divided by
the number of possible events.
For example, suppose we are going to roll a die once.
What is the probability it will come to rest with a 2 (the side with two spots on it) facing upward?
Since there are six possible numbers that might occur and only one of these is 2, the probability of a
2, in one roll of one die, is:
Probability may be approached in two ways:
2. From a posteriori or empirical viewpoint – this means “after the fact,” and in the
context of probability, it means after some data have been collected.
To determine the probability of a 2 in one roll of one die by using empirical approach, we would
have to take the actual die, roll it many times, and count the number of times a 2 has occurred. The
more times we roll the die, the better.
For example, let’s assume for this problem that we roll the die 100,000 times and that a 2 occurs
16,000 times. The probability of a 2 occurring in one roll of the die is found by:
Solution for Example #1:
Step 1. Write the given numbers.
Red marbles = 4
Total marbles = 6
Step 2. Use the formula to compute the probability of
getting red marbles.
Therefore, let A be the event of getting red marbles.
P(A) = # of possible outcomes / # of total outcomes
Step 3. Substitute 4 for the number of possible outcomes
and 6 for the number of total outcomes. Then perform the
division.
P(A) = 4/6
Therefore, the probability of getting red marbles from the
jar is 4/6 or 66%.
Let’s compute the likelihood of getting blue marbles (A)
using the same formula. Note that the number of possible
outcomes is 2.
P(A) = 2/6
Therefore, the probability of getting blue marbles from the
jar is 2/6 or 33%.
Solution for Example #2:
Step 1. Write the given numbers.
Blue parts = 6, Yellow parts = 10, Total colors = 16
Step 2. Use the formula to compute the probability of spinning a blue. Therefore, let A be
the event of spinning a blue.
Note that the 6 blue parts are also our number of possible outcomes or the outcomes we
want to get, while the number of total outcomes is the total number of colors in the
wheel, which is 16.
P(A) = # of possible outcomes / # of total outcomes
Step 3. Substitute 6 for the number of possible outcomes and 16 for the number of total
outcomes. Then perform the division.
P(A) = 6/16
Therefore, the probability of spinning a blue is 6/16 or 37.5%. If we check the probability
line, this means unlikely.
Let’s try to compute the likelihood of spinning an orange.
Substitute 10 for the number of possible outcomes and 16 for the number of total
outcomes.
P(A) = 10/16
Therefore, the probability of spinning an orange is 10/16 or 62.5%. If we check the
probability line, this means likely or more than half a chance.
Thank you for reading. We hope it’s effective! Always feel free to revisit this page if you
ever have any questions about probability.