ROSTOW'S STAGES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
The Take-Off Model of Development
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Walt Whitman Rostow (1916-2003)
Walt Whitman Rostow (October 7, 1916 – February 13, 2003) was an American
economist, professor, and political theorist who served as National Security Advisor to
President Lyndon B. Johnson from 1966 to 1969.
Rostow was a prominent figure in development economics and played a significant role
in shaping U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War era. His work combined economic
analysis with political strategy, making him influential in both academic and policy
circles.
1.2 The Rostovian Take-Off Model
The Rostovian take-off model (also called "Rostow's Stages of Growth") is one of the
major historical models of economic growth based on Auguste Comte's earlier "law of
three stages." The model proposes that economic modernization occurs in five basic
stages of varying length.
The five stages are:
• Traditional society
• Preconditions for take-off
• Take-off
• Drive to maturity
• Age of high mass consumption
1.3 Historical Context
Rostow developed this model during the Cold War as an alternative to Marxist theories
of economic development. The model reflects Western capitalist perspectives on
development and was influential in shaping development policy in the United States and
international institutions like the World Bank and IMF.
2. STAGE 1: TRADITIONAL SOCIETY
2.1 Defining Characteristics
Traditional societies are marked by their pre-Newtonian understanding and use of
technology. These are societies with pre-scientific understandings of gadgets and
tools, where agriculture is predominant and society has a hierarchical structure.
2.2 Economic Features
• Agricultural dominance: Agriculture is the main source of income, employing
the vast majority of the population
• Limited production: Low ceiling on per capita output due to backwardness of
technology
• Absence of growth norms: The norms of economic growth are completely
absent from these societies
• Primitive technology: Production methods remain traditional with minimal
mechanization
• Subsistence economy: Most production is for immediate consumption rather
than market exchange
2.3 Social Structure
• Hierarchical organization: Society is organized in rigid hierarchies based on
birth and land ownership
• Land-based power: Political power is concentrated in landowning classes
• Limited mobility: Little social or geographic mobility; status determined by birth
• Traditional values: Society emphasizes tradition, custom, and religious authority
Bangladesh Example: Pre-colonial Bengal (before 1757) exhibited traditional society
characteristics. The economy was dominated by subsistence agriculture with rice
cultivation. The zamindari (feudal land tenure) system concentrated land ownership
among elites. Traditional crafts like muslin weaving existed but were not industrialized.
Society was hierarchically organized with limited social mobility.
3. STAGE 2: PRECONDITIONS FOR TAKE-OFF
3.1 Overview
The preconditions for take-off stage refers to the period when society begins committing
itself to secular education, capital mobilization, entrepreneurial development, and
manufacturing concepts. This stage leads to take-off in ten to fifty years.
3.2 Key Developments
• Secular education: Society commits to modern education systems, creating a
literate workforce
• Capital mobilization: Establishment of banks and currency systems to mobilize
savings for productive investment
• Entrepreneurial class: Emergence of entrepreneurs willing to take risks and
invest in new ventures
• Manufacturing concept: Secular concept of manufacturing develops, with only
a few sectors developing at this point
• Limited production function: At this stage, there is still a limited production
function and therefore limited output
3.3 Infrastructure Development
• Basic infrastructure like roads, ports, and railways begin construction
• Communication networks improve
• Resource extraction for export develops
• Agricultural productivity improvements occur
Bangladesh Example: British colonial period (1757-1947) created preconditions:
railway network construction connecting major cities, development of Chittagong and
Mongla ports, establishment of jute processing industries, introduction of modern
education system, founding of Dhaka University (1921), and basic infrastructure
development. However, these were primarily designed to serve colonial extraction
rather than indigenous development.
4. STAGE 3: TAKE-OFF
4.1 The Critical Stage
Take-off occurs when sector-led growth becomes common and society is driven
more by economic processes than traditions. At this point, the norms of economic
growth are well established.
In discussing take-off, Rostow adopted the term "transition" to describe the passage
from a traditional to a modern economy. After take-off, a country will take as long as
fifty to one hundred years to reach maturity. Globally, this stage occurred during the
Industrial Revolution.
4.2 Two Necessary Conditions for Take-Off
The requirements of take-off are the following two related but necessary conditions:
Condition 1: Sharp Rise in Investment Rate
A rise in the rate of productive investment from approximately 10% or less to over
20% of national income or net national product.
This dramatic increase in investment enables:
• Capital accumulation for industrial expansion
• Infrastructure development at scale
• Technology adoption across sectors
• Sustained economic growth momentum
Condition 2: Development of Leading Sectors
The development of one or more substantial manufacturing sectors with a high
rate of growth. This indicates the leading sectors in the economy.
Rostow regards the development of leading sectors as the 'analytical bone structure'
of the stages of economic growth.
Leading sectors characteristics:
• Experience rapid growth rates
• Create linkages with other industries
• Drive overall economic expansion
• Generate employment and income
Historical examples of leading sectors:
• Britain: Textiles during Industrial Revolution
• USA: Railroads in 19th century
• Japan: Electronics in post-WWII era
• India: Information Technology in 1990s-2000s
Bangladesh Context: Bangladesh has not yet fully achieved take-off according to
Rostow's strict criteria. Investment rate is approximately 30% of GDP (meeting the
threshold), but structural transformation remains incomplete. The Ready-Made Garment
(RMG) sector emerged as a potential leading sector since the 1980s, growing from
virtually nothing to 85% of exports and contributing 11% of GDP. However, economic
diversification remains limited, and the RMG sector faces challenges of low value-
addition. Some economists argue Bangladesh is in late preconditions/early take-off
stage.
5. STAGE 4: DRIVE TO MATURITY
5.1 Defining the Stage
After take-off, there follows a long interval of sustained, if fluctuating, progress, as the
now regularly growing economy drives to extend modern technology over the whole
front of its economic activity.
5.2 Economic Characteristics
• Sustained investment: Some 10-20% of national income is steadily invested,
permitting output to regularly exceed population increase
• Constant economic change: The economy changes constantly as technique
improves, new industries accelerate, and older industries level off
• International integration: The economy finds its place in the international
economy—goods formerly imported are produced at home; new import
requirements develop, and new export commodities match them
• Institutional adaptation: Society makes terms with requirements of modern
efficient production, balancing new against older values and institutions
5.3 Economic Diversification
The drive to maturity refers to the need for the economy to diversify. The sectors of
the economy which led initially begin to level off, while other sectors begin to take off.
This diversity leads to greatly reduced rates of poverty and rising standards of living, as
a society no longer needs to sacrifice its comfort to strengthen certain sectors.
5.4 Timeline
This stage typically lasts around 60 years after take-off, during which the economy
extends modern technology across all sectors and develops an increasingly
sophisticated industrial structure.
Historical examples:
• Britain: 1850-1910
• USA: 1900-1960
• Japan: 1940-2000
• South Korea: 1980-2020
6. STAGE 5: AGE OF HIGH MASS CONSUMPTION
6.1 Defining Characteristics
The age of high mass consumption refers to the period of contemporary comfort
afforded many Western nations, wherein consumers concentrate on durable goods, and
hardly remember the subsistence concerns of previous stages.
6.2 The Buddenbrooks Dynamics Metaphor
Rostow uses the Buddenbrooks dynamics metaphor to describe the change in
attitude. In Thomas Mann's novel Buddenbrooks, a family is narrated for three
generations:
• First generation: Interested in economic development
• Second generation: Concerned with its position in society
• Third generation: Already having money and prestige, concerns itself with arts
and music, worrying little about previous earthly concerns
6.3 Three Societal Choices
In the age of high mass consumption, a society is able to choose between concentrating
on:
• Military and security issues: Investing resources in defense and global power
projection
• Equality and welfare issues: Developing comprehensive welfare state
programs
• Developing great luxuries: Focusing on consumption and lifestyle
enhancement for the upper classes
Each country in this position chooses its own balance between these three goals.
7. CONNECTION TO DANIEL BELL'S POST-INDUSTRIAL
SOCIETY
Of particular note is that Rostow's "Age of High Mass Consumption" dovetails with
(occurring before) Daniel Bell's hypothesized "Post-Industrial Society."
7.1 The Bell and Rostovian Models Combined
The Bell and Rostovian models collectively suggest that economic maturation inevitably
brings on:
• Job growth followed by wage escalation in the secondary economic sector
(manufacturing)
• Dramatic growth in the tertiary economic sector (commerce and services)
• In the Bell model, the tertiary sector rises to predominance, encompassing
perhaps 65-75% of employment
7.2 Deindustrialization and Cycling
Maturation can bring on deindustrialization as manufacturers reorient to cheaper labor
markets. Deindustrialization can, in turn, destabilize the tertiary sector.
The suggestion is that mature economies may indirectly destabilize and cycle back-
and-forth between the final stages of the Rostovian-Bell developmental phases as
they rebalance themselves over time and re-evolve their economic base.
8. CRITICISM OF THE MODEL
Despite its influence, Rostow's model has faced substantial criticism from development
economists and geographers:
8.1 Ahistorical Nature
Criticism 1: Rostow is historical in the sense that the result is known at the outset and
is derived from the historical geography of a developed, bureaucratic society.
The model works backward from the endpoint (Western industrial societies) rather than
forward from actual developmental processes. It assumes all societies will follow the
same path Western nations followed.
8.2 Mechanical and Deterministic
Criticism 2: Rostow is mechanical in the sense that the underlying driving force behind
historical or social development is not disclosed.
The model presents stages as automatic progressions without explaining the actual
mechanisms that cause transitions between stages. It lacks theoretical depth about why
societies move from one stage to another.
8.3 Ethnocentric Bias
Criticism 3: His model is based on American and European history and defines the
American norm of high mass consumption as integral to the economic development
process of all industrialized societies.
The model assumes that what worked for Western countries will work universally,
ignoring different cultural contexts, historical circumstances, and development paths. It
imposes a Western-centric view of "development" on all societies.
8.4 Neoliberal Trade Policy Assumptions
Criticism 4: His model assumes the inevitable adoption of Neoliberal trade policies
which allow the manufacturing base of a given advanced institution to be relocated to
lower-wage regions.
This assumption has proven problematic as it can lead to deindustrialization in
developed countries and exploitation in developing countries, contradicting the model's
prediction of universal progress.
8.5 Additional Criticisms
• Linear progression assumption: Not all countries follow this linear path; some
skip stages or regress
• Ignores dependency: Fails to account for how developing countries' growth is
constrained by their relationships with developed countries
• Static view: Doesn't account for changing global economic conditions and
technological transformations
• Environmental concerns: The model doesn't address environmental limits to
growth or sustainability
9. EXAMINATION PREPARATION TIPS
9.1 Key Points to Memorize
• Five stages: Traditional society, preconditions for take-off, take-off, drive to
maturity, age of high mass consumption
• Two conditions for take-off: (1) Investment rate rises from <10% to >20% of
national income; (2) Development of leading sectors with high growth
• Timeline: 10-50 years from preconditions to take-off; 50-100 years from take-off
to maturity; ~60 years during maturity
• Leading sectors: Called 'analytical bone structure' by Rostow; examples include
textiles (Britain), railroads (USA), electronics (Japan)
• Four main criticisms: Ahistorical, mechanical, ethnocentric (American-
European bias), assumes neoliberal trade
• Bangladesh context: Late preconditions/early take-off stage; RMG as leading
sector; investment ~30% of GDP
9.2 Possible Exam Questions
1. Explain Rostow's five stages of economic growth. Which stage is most critical for
development and why?
2. Discuss the two necessary conditions for take-off according to Rostow. Has
Bangladesh achieved take-off?
3. What is meant by 'leading sectors' in Rostow's model? Evaluate the Ready-Made
Garment sector as a leading sector for Bangladesh.
4. Critically evaluate Rostow's Stages of Economic Growth model. Discuss at least four
major limitations.
5. Compare the 'traditional society' and 'age of high mass consumption' stages. Provide
historical examples.
6. Explain how Rostow's model connects to Daniel Bell's post-industrial society concept.
Discuss deindustrialization.
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