From Paris to Punjab: Climate Change Taking Our Breath Away

Introduction:
“We are living on this planet as if we had another one to go
to.”
– Terri Swearingen

Climate change is rapidly taking over the world with mostly adverse impacts on human
health, with significant loss of life. The change in climate has been reshaping ecosystems,
economies, societies across the globe. It has been a challenge for all the species on this
planet. While historically natural events like volcanic eruptions played a dominant role in
altering the nature, now-a-days it is the combustion of fossil fuels on a massive scale that is
responsible for the increasing danger in our atmosphere. A common misconception about
climate change is that one might think it emerged out of nowhere, however that’s not correct.
Climate change affects globally, it emerged from the global scale after decades of green
house effect. The industrial revolution, which began in mid-18 th century, led to the start of an
anthropogenic rise in greenhouse emissions. Since then, burning of fossil fuels has been
increased. Today, many countries around the world use fossil fuels as the primary source of
energy for electricity, heat and transportation. Significant changes have been made by some
recognizable countries like: UK, Norway, France and New Zealand, to reach net zero
emissions by 2050.
Species are feeling the impact of global warming around the world as climate change brings
intense droughts, wildfires, extreme storms with heavier rainfall. Pakistan, ranked among the
most climate-vulnerable countries even though it causes 0.86% carbon emissions yearly.
Every new year, due to increase in climate change globally, people of Pakistan face recurring
floods, prolonged heatwaves and water scarcity which threatens both, livelihoods and
development. With Lahore being the urban dimension of climate change, struggling with
smog, rising temperatures and strained infrastructure.

This paper explores the link between global climate frameworks like the Paris Agreement and
the realities faced in Pakistan and in Punjab especially by highlighting Lahore. By examining
international commitments, national vulnerabilities, and local case studies, it concludes both
the urgency of climate action and the opportunities for resilience that can bridge the gap
between global promises and local needs.

The Paris Agreement: A Global Framework for Climate Action

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was
adopted by 195 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on
12 December 2015. It came into action on 4 November 2016. The major goal of this
agreement is to “be below 2°C above pre-industrial level” and continue its efforts to deduce

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the temperature increase by 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. UN’s intergovernmental panel
on climate change explains that, crossing the 1.5-degree C threshold is actually a major risk,
unleashing to far more climate effects and severity, heatwaves and rainfall.
How will this agreement work?
It is a five-year cycle of increasingly ambitious climate action which is being carried out by
many countries. Since 2020, countries have been submitting their NDCs (Nationally
Determined Contributions).

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC’s)

In NDC’s countries talk about the actions and improvements they will be making in order to
reach the Paris-agreement demands. The ‘actions and improvements’ are actually based on
how much efforts the countries will add in to decrease the Green-house Gas Emissions
How are countries supporting each other?
Finance: The Paris agreement, the companies which are more developed should financially
help those which are under development. They have encouraged voluntary contributions by
other parties. Climate finance is needed for mitigation.
Technology: The Paris agreement talks for technology development and transfer for both
improving resilience to climate change and reducing GHG emissions, this mechanism is
increasing technological development.
What’s been achieved?
The Climate change action needs massive action to reach the goals defined by Paris
agreement but the year since this was established and came into force, it already sparked low
carbon emissions and new markets. Many companies in different countries and cities are
establishing carbon neutrality targets. This trend is more recognizable in power and
transport sectors and has created many new businesses opportunities.
By 2030, zero-carbon solutions could be competitive in sectors representing over 70% of global
emissions.

National Context: Pakistan’s climate policies, pledges, and challenges

Governance is the exercise of managing the political, economic, and administrative processes
of a country. It comprises of government, civil servants, all relevant stakeholders in a society,
such as the private sector and civil society organizations, from households and local levels to
provincial, national and international levels. Pakistan is in the top 10 countries which are
affected by climate change. According to the Notre Dame-Global Adaptation Index (ND-
GAIN), Pakistan is the 39th most vulnerable and the 27th least prepared nation globally to
cope with the impacts of climate change. A recent case is the June 2022 flood where, The
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) reported that, one out of seven of
Pakistanis get affected by mass flooding, which is around 33 million people.

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Key components of Pakistan’s Climate Policy:
 National Adaption Plan
Approved in 2023, NAP emphasizes on coordinated planning and actions to address the
challenges posed by climate change. It aims to enhance climate resilience in sectors:
agriculture, water, urban development and disaster risk management.
 Mitigation Efforts
Pakistan recognizes its responsibilities in combating climate change even though the
country’s contribution to GHS are minimum. The aim is to reduce emissions while
promoting development and sustainability.
 National Climate Preparedness Plan
In 2025, the ministry of climate change proposed a plan for climate changing, also called
as the 300-day national climate resilience plan. This program will focus on coordinating
with federal and provincial authorities as well as preparing for future disaster response
capacity.
 Ten Billion Tree Tsunami
One of the projects to enhance climate resilience and address environmental challenges.
This project promotes bio-diversity conservation and reforestation with Clean Green
Pakistan index which promotes environmental sustainability.
Last two initiatives were taken during the time period of PTI’s government.

PLEDGES:
Conditional pledge: Pakistan can only achieve this if sufficient international support and
financing are provided.
Unconditional pledge: Without external support, Pakistan commits to a smaller reduction,
mainly through domestic measures.

KEY CHALLENGES:
1. Financial gap: Pakistan is relying on international aids1 ,approximately 556 billion
dollars are required for maintaining the climate promise.
2. Policy gaps: There is lack of enforcement of NDC’s and climate laws.
3. Vulnerability: Climate vulnerability through recurring floods and disasters.
4. Private Sector Role: Limited play of private sector for climate change.

Regional Focus – Punjab’s vulnerabilities

1
Pakistan. UNDP Climate Promise. (n.d.). [Link]
do/where-we-work/pakistan
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Punjab’s districts which are exposed to climate change are slipping deeper into a
vulnerability hole of repeated environmental shocks of: heatwaves, mass flooding, drought
pockets, extended smog cycles, and irregular rain patterns. Population and health expert
Ikram ul Ahad said, “Without urgent district level interventions, Punjab could slide into long-
term human development regression”. The reason why Punjab is so exposed to climate issues
is because of a combination of geography, economy and dependence on fragile systems. The
summer’s heatwave, one of the harshest in decades, pushed temperatures above 50°C,
burning crops, drying water sources and amplifying medical emergencies.

Agriculture Vulnerability

 Heat Stress on Crops: Rising temperatures shorten growing seasons and reduce
wheat yields, while cotton and rice are highly sensitive to heatwaves. Field officials
reported widespread dehydration, heat strokes and food insecurity as thousands of
poor families lost their seasonal earnings. The collapse in the cotton and sugarcane
belts forced many households to migrate temporarily or take loans to survive,
tightening the cycle of poverty in areas already classified as high-risk.
 Erratic Rainfall: Monsoon variability leads to flooding in some years and drought in
others, damaging standing crops and reducing soil fertility.
 Flood Risk: The 2022 floods destroyed millions of acres of farmland in Punjab,
showing how extreme rainfall events can wipe out harvests. Flash flooding the
monsoon breached protective bunds in tehsils, washing away link roads, destroying
schools and cutting off entire villages for days. Health officials admitted that Lady
Health Workers were unable to reach dozens of flood-struck union councils, leaving
pregnant women and new mothers without counselling, vaccination or family
planning services.
 Pest & Disease Pressure: Warmer, wetter conditions increase pest infestations (like
locusts) and crop diseases.

Water Vulnerability
 Groundwater Depletion: Due to climate issues and high agricultural reliance the
ground water is depleting, crops turn into dry cracks during the heatwaves in Punjab
for which more water is required to keep the crops from dying. With decline in water
tablets of Punjab because of less rainfall each year covering only a few percent (10%)
of the state.
 Rising Crop Water Requirements (CWR): Studies show that due to high demand
water for sugarcane, wheat and rice straining already stressed resources.
 Indus Basin Dependence: The distribution level of Indus basin is facing an
emergent
crisis due to many reasons including climate and administrative challenges. Pakistan
may soon face serious food scarcity.

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  Salinity & Waterlogging: Salinity has spoiled 60-70% of groundwater which is
increasing the depletion of water. It has serious socioeconomic repercussions on
agricultural communities of the country, which leads to effects in living standard,
rural and urban migration.

Urban Climate Challenges in Lahore

Unchecked urban expansion and soaring temperatures are making lives increasingly difficult
for Lahore’s residents. Due to rapid change in climate and booming population, Lahore now
alternates between smog and extreme heat. Peaking on 42-50 degree in summers, the city is
always breaking records. Environmental researchers say that the rise in extremely hot
temperatures is due to mass deforestation and construction. From 2010 to 2017 alone the city
has lost 70% of its forestation. Many species of insects, birds have lost their homes or gone
distinct. The PMD, along with environmental scientists, cite global warming, loss of
vegetation, industrial emissions, and flawed urban planning as key contributors to worsening
heatwaves. Due to severe heatwaves, nausea, dizziness, dehydration and medical assistances
have been increased. Without urgent action, scientists warn, extreme heat may become the
new normal in cities like Lahore, threatening public health, agriculture, and the urban
economy.

Summary of Impacts:
Sector Climate Impact Consequences

Health Heatwaves, smog, floods Respiratory illness,

heatstroke, waterborne
disease
Agriculture Erratic rainfall, water Lower yields, farmer
scarcity income loss
Water Supply Groundwater depletion, Scarcity, higher costs
droughts
Infrastructure Flooding, heat stress Damage to roads, housing,
drainage

Experts stress that while these guidelines may offer temporary relief, Lahore needs long-term
climate-resilient urban planning. Solutions include preserving existing greenery, mass tree
plantation drives, and integrating climate considerations into city development plans.

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Analysis and Conclusion

Paris Promises vs Punjab Pressures

While the Paris Agreement envisions limiting global warming to 1.5°C with securing food
and water systems through resilient development, Punjab’s realities expose the distance
between ambition and practice. As Pakistan’s agricultural heartland, Punjab, depends on
irrigation-intensive crops like wheat, rice, and sugarcane, yet rising temperatures, erratic
monsoons, and recurrent floods already undermine yields and soil fertility.

THE GAP
Paris Goals Punjab Realities Gap
Emission reduction & Punjab’s agriculture still Lack of transition to
resilience relies on climate-smart farming
water-intensive,
high-emission practices
Climate finance promised Punjab needs billions for Finance gap which
adaptation, but funding blocks resilience
is scarce
Protect food & water Punjab faces declining Food security at risk
security yields, water scarcity, soil
salinity
Technology transfer Farmers lack access to Technology gap
modern irrigation &
resilient seeds

Synthesis
The Paris Agreement sets ambitious global goals for limiting global warming and protecting
food and water security as well as the countries, yet Pakistan’s climate pledges remain
conditional on international finance and technological transfer. Punjab, as the country’s main
and highlighted province with agricultural heartland, illustrates a stark gap between global
commitments and local realities: rising crop water requirements, groundwater depletion, and
recurrent floods and droughts threaten both livelihoods and national food security. Lahore, as
Punjab’s urban hub, faces its own climate burdens due to mass deforestation and
overwhelming development which is unnecessary. Heatwaves, smog, water scarcity, and
urban flooding shows how climate change impacts both rural and urban systems. Altogether,

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these layers reveal that Pakistan on a whole’s climate vulnerability is systemic, cutting across
agriculture, water, health, and infrastructure.

Recommendations
Pakistan’s climate obligations under international treaties such as the Paris Agreement, aligns
with its national climate policy framework. The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP)
and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are evidence of this alignment, particularly
in terms of focusing on adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and sustainable energy transition.
However, the gap between policy and implementation remains a challenge. Achieving
Pakistan’s climate goals will require a substantial increase in international climate finance,
robust governance mechanisms, stronger institutional frameworks, and greater investment in
renewable energy and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Pakistan can strengthen its resilience against climate change and achieve its climate-related
targets, by learning from international best practices and leveraging both domestic and
international resources.
Actionable Steps
 Set up regular climate action meetings that bring together key stakeholders from all
levels of government.
 Empower the NCAC to create specific cross-sectoral working groups focusing on
areas like flood management, agricultural resilience, and renewable energy.
 Allocate additional resources and technical expertise to EPAs to carry out inspections,
monitor compliance, and enforce penalties.

Future Outlook

TIMELINE OUTLOOK KEY OPPORTUNITIES

CHALLENGES

2026–2035 Rising climate Weak renewable International

shocks, policy energy growth, climate finance,
reforms underway financing gap resilience
planning
2036–2060 Intensified floods Implementation Regional
& droughts gap between adaptation
national & strategies, water
provincial levels management
2061–2100 Severe Threats to food Potential for
hydroclimatic security, large-scale

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 shifts biodiversity loss renewable
transition if
finance

DATA

Figure 1

Figure 1. Extreme temperature events in Pakistan with varying ranges of temperature. (a)
Temperature ≥50 °C; (b) temperature ≥40 °C and <50 °C; (c) temperature ≤0 °C; (d) all the regions in
Pakistan in which extreme temperature events occurred.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Digital elevation model of Indus Basin with dams, rivers, and flood-affected areas.

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Figure 3

Figure 3. Digital elevation model of Lahore’s climate change from 2010-2025.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Digital graph model of Lahore’s weather temperature scale due to climate change from
2010-2025.

Figure 5

Figure 5. Data of rainfall in Lahore given by Pakistan Meteorological Department

(PMD)

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MATERLIAL LINKS
1. Climate change - Latest research and news | Nature
2. The Paris Agreement | UNFCCC
3. Beating the Heat in Pakistan - NASA Science
4. Climate shocks push Punjab’s vulnerable districts toward deepening crisis
5. Global Warming
6. PM launches Clean Green Pakistan Index, urges masses to participate to curb pollution -
[Link]
7. Lahore Climate Change Severity Score | 16-Years Analysis
8. Pakistan Production Based Emissions of CO2: Gas | Economic Indicators | CEIC
9. [Link]/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/
Punjab_Climate_Change_Policy_Action_Plan__1723738609_compressed.pdf
10. Lahore’s population boom fuels rising heat risk, experts warn

REFRENCES

1. Wazir, A., Khan, Z., Mahsud, S. K., Ahmed, K., & Wazir, S. (2024). Prime Minister’s
task force on national climate policy framework and international obligations.
Khyber Journal of Public Policy, 3(4).

2. Malik, A., Tayyab, H., Ullah, A., & Talha, M. (2021). Dynamics of salinity and land
use in Punjab Province of Pakistan. Pak J Agric Res, 34, 16-22.

3. Zahra, S. M., Shahid, M. A., Misaal, M. A., Zaman, M., Imran, M., Azam, S., & Hussain, F. (2023).
Sustainable Water Management in Indus Basin and Vulnerability Due to Climate
Change. Environmental Sciences Proceedings, 25(1), 36. [Link]

4. Change, C. (2001). Climate change. Synth. Rep.

5. Maqbool, Muhammad & Lohano, Heman & Bukhari, Syed. (2023). Climate Change Impacts
on Household Income in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Economic Sciences. 2.
139-148. 10.55603/jes.v2i2.a5.

PROJECT SUBMISSION DETAILS:

Submitted to: Muhammad Bilal Iftikhar

Submitted by: Eshaal Fatima (F2025408148)

GHANA ALI AMIR (F2025408136)

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 MUHAMMAD AHMED AWAIS MIAN (F2025408138)

Section: C-19

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