CLIMATE CHANGE DISLCEMENT AND COMMUNITY
RESILIENCE: STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT IN COASTAL SINDH
AISHA HABIB SAKURA (B2211006002)
LAIBA KHAN (B221110060
FAIZA KIRAN (B221100600
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT (600.1)
DATE OF SUBMISSION:
WORD COUNT:
TABLE OF CONTENT
INTRODUCTION: 3
CLIMATE CHANGE: 3
CLIMATE CHANGE AND PAKISTAN: 3
SEA LEVEL RISE: 5
SEA LEVEL RISE ON HE COAST OF PAKISTAN: 6
WAYS TO ADAPT YOUR CITY TO SEA LEVEL RISE: 6
UNDERSTAND THE CITY’S VULNERABILITY TO COASTAL FLOODING
AND SEA LEVEL RISE: 6
IMPROVE COASTAL FLOOD DEFENCES TO REDUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD AND SEVERITY OF FLOODING: 7
DESIGN BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE TO REDUCE THE
IMPACT OF COASTAL FLOODING: 8
PREPARE FOR A PLANNED RETREAT FROM AT-RISK AREAS: 8
REFRENCES: 9
INTRODUCTION:
Pakistan has consistently been ranked as one of the top ten countries most vulnerable
to the impacts of climate change, which includes sea-level rise. Pakistan’s coastal belt
is around 1120 km long, stretching from its western border with Iran at Jiwani to its
eastern border with India at Sir Creek across two coastal provinces: Balochistan and
Sindh. The Sindh coastline (348 km) can be subdivided into the Karachi and Indus Delta
regions, where the Karachi region hosts two ports: Karachi Port and Bin Qasim Port.
The low-lying Indus Delta region covers an area of around 60,000 km2, stretching
around 210 km where it meets the sea, and has around 94% of Pakistan’s mangroves.
CLIMATE CHANGE:
Climate encompasses parameters such as temperature, precipitation, pressure,
humidity, wind, and cloud cover. The measured rise in the Earth's average temperature
is referred to as "global warming,” it can be observed through variations in Temperature,
humidity, pressure, and precipitation in the atmosphere.
Global climate change is a variation in long-term weather patterns such as earth
warming due to many environmental factors such as GHGs, APGs, Environmental
degradation, etc. Due to these factors, the natural environment degrades rapidly.
Human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and other types of fuels release air
pollutants and greenhouse gases that can damage the quality of the environment and
warm the earth's surface by increasing of concentration of heat-trapping gasses above
the earth's surface and 26% of Global CO2 contributed by transportation industries
which is a huge amount.
This phenomenon has many adverse effects on sea levels and melting ice cap glaciers,
freshwater availability, and human health. Globally, glaciers mass to lose 26% (+
1.5 °C) to 41% (+ 4 °C) of their mass by 2100.
The impact of climate varies with countries depending on the development and
infrastructure of the country as developing countries have a high impact of climate
change as compared to developed countries the reason behind the lack of knowledge
and awareness due to limited resources and improper utilization of the natural
resources and have not capability to regulated and proper utilized their resources as
well as poor financial conditions.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND PAKISTAN:
Pakistan is at the top of the SAARC countries to release huge amounts of CO 2,
methane gases, and other GHGs which can contribute to 90% of global warming.
Oceans (22%) and plants (55%) intake most of the CO2 emissions caused by the
combustion of fossil fuels and the remaining 45% keep on accumulating in the
atmosphere. Pakistan will become the one of the highest CO2 emitter at the end of the
2030 due rapid urban and industrialization, high energy demand for power generation,
increase transportation, and improper utilization of resources, poor financial and high
poverty rate.
The current situation is that Pakistan is under extreme weather patterns, flash floods,
rise in sea level, rise in earth’s temperature, and change in rainfall patterns in terms of
climate deviation.
Pakistan is experiencing climate change primarily because of human activities such as
energy waste, improper waste management, industrial development, increased
transportation, agricultural practices, and mishandling of livestock. These activities
result in an excessive release of greenhouse gases (GHG) into the atmosphere.
Pakistan’s climate change concerns include increased variability of monsoons, the likely
impact of receding Himalayan glaciers on the Indus River system, decreased capacity
of water reservoirs, reduced hydropower during drought years, and extreme events
including floods and droughts. Other potential climate change induced impacts include:
severe water stress; food insecurity due to decreasing agricultural and livestock
production; more prevalent pests and weeds; degradation of ecosystems; biodiversity
loss; and northward shifting of some biomes. As well, higher temperatures may affect
the composition, distribution and productivity of mangroves, while lower precipitation
could contribute to salt stress.
Climate change is also anticipated to have a considerable impact on the country’s
agricultural system, with possible impacts including vulnerability to heat stress, shifts in
the spatial boundaries of crops, changes in productivity, and changes in water
availability and use. It may also impact forestry through changes in forest area,
productivity changes, and changes in species composition and distribution. As well as
Pakistan’s coastal zones, particularly the city of Karachi, could be affected by coastal
erosion and inundation through sea level rise.
Pakistan is also likely to experience frequent occurrence of severe cyclones and storm
surges due to rising atmospheric and sea temperatures. These events, accompanied by
rising sea levels, could threaten coastal cities such as Karachi, Thatta and Badin.
Combined with decreased river flow and sediments dispersal, sea level rise would mean
a landward penetration of the salt water wedge within the groundwater column. This
process of salt water intrusion would significantly influence access to water resources in
Pakistan’s coastal communities. As well, coastal infrastructure will be especially
affected. Key assets like Gwader Port and the Coastal Highway could need extra
protection.
SEA LEVEL RISE:
Global warming resulting from rising atmospheric CO2 has been cited to retain heat through the
earth's atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial systems. As a result ocean water would expand
and many glaciers on mountains would melt. This process would lead to higher sea levels. Sea
level rise (SLR) threatens important environmental and economic assets in the coastal zone.
Globally, a rise in sea level of up to one meter over the next hundred years could severely
damage human settlements, agriculture, freshwater supply, fisheries, health and coastal
ecosystems. Some of the least developed nations bordering the Indian Ocean are threatened by
sea level rise due to a possible impact of climate change.
A rise sea level of a few mm per year, although not threatening but direct and indirect impact of
this rise would have a profound impact on the coastal resources for sustainable coastal zone
management. Direct land loss of low-lying areas can rapidly damage or destroy coastal
ecosystems. In addition to sea level change a rise in global warming will also increase the
frequency of tropical cyclones and will further add to the miseries of the coastal states.
Global sea level is already rising. Over the last 100 years it has risen by 10 cm and 25 cm. Even
if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized immediately this rise will continue because there is a
lag time between emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and a response from the
oceans. Models project an increase in sea level between 13cm and 95cm between 1995 and
2100.
SEA LEVEL RISE ON HE COAST OF PAKISTAN:
Pakistan has over 10% of its population living in the vicinity of the coastal zone, over 20 % of
coastal area of Pakistan is relatively developed, 40% of industry is situated on or near the coast.
The adverse effect of sea level rise on the Pakistan coast is expected to be pronounced in the
Indus Delta. Topographically it is a tidal flat zone. A sea level rise of about 2 metres is expected
to submerge or sea encroach an area of about 7,500 sq km in the Indus Delta. The low-lying
areas along the Baluchistan coast may also exert a significant effect. The mean sea level (MSL)
along the coast at Pasni is about 1.4 m from the chart datum. The MSL is slowly but gradually
rising at a rate of about 1.1 mm/year. Although a small sea level rise may be compensated by
tectonic uplift rate of the Makran coastline estimated at 1-2 mm/year at Ormara.
Karachi, concurs with the world average rate of increase in sea level. The rate of sea level rise
in Pakistan coastal region has been tabulated to approximate 1.1 mm per year. The effects of
changes in regional climate have been seriously felt since the past two decades. Currently
scientific sea level information and data in Pakistan is insufficient to reconstruct any quantitative
change. It would be pertinent to use eustatic sea level increase of 2 mm/year and 6 mm/year in
order to predict possible scenarios for the Pakistan coast for the next 50 and 100 years. global
warming has had a significant effects on the sea level rise since the 1900. At Karachi the rate
of 1.1 mm/year in sea level rise has been observed. This sea level increase will cause stronger
wave action, higher tidal amplitude and greater possibility of surge occurrence that will have
significant socio-economic effects on the coastal regions. The combined consequential effects
of these coastal processes have been observed in many parts of the Balochistan and Sindh
coast. The coastal lowlands around the coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to further
change in sea level rise and related coastal processes.
SEA LEVEL SCENARIO
RATE OF RISE AFTER 50 YEARS AFTER 100 YEARS
1.1 mm/yr 5.5 cm 11 cm
2.0 mm/yr 10 cm 20 cm
6.0 mm/yr 30 cm 60 cm
WAYS TO ADAPT YOUR CITY TO SEA LEVEL RISE:
Understand the city’s vulnerability to coastal flooding and sea level
rise:
The risk of coastal flooding a city faces depends on its physical geography and built
characteristics, the subsidence (sinking) of the land on which it is built and the projected
global sea-level rise. Subsidence can have natural or human causes, including porous
ground rock, the movement of tectonic plates, unmanaged groundwater extraction and
the weight of development. Begin by assessing how these factors shape local
vulnerability to coastal flooding and sea level rise. Partner with research institutions,
meteorological departments and non-governmental organisations to develop this
assessment. Ideally, it should be carried out within the city’s wider climate change risk
assessment.
Collaborate with other cities and local and regional authorities:
Coastal flooding and rising seas are not localised issues. Defences in one place – or a
lack thereof – can have implications for others. Equally, monitoring and alert systems
can be shared across a coastal region. Coordinating with other cities and authorities in
the region can increase effectiveness of action and help to pool resources, among other
things.
Establishing a regional board or working group can help to coordinate a regional
strategy to address sea level rise and coastal flooding. A good example is
the Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact, which was established in
2009 by Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe and Palm Beach Counties to coordinate action
to increase the region’s climate resilience, share tools and knowledge and increase
political will.
Improve coastal flood defences to reduce the likelihood and severity
of flooding:
This is about keeping water away from the built environment. There are two main ways
in which to protect coastlines from floods, storm surge and inundation – restoring
natural coastal ecosystems or building physical, synthetic structures – but cities can
also use a mixture of the two.
The appropriate approach will depend on the physical characteristics of the coastline,
as well as the infrastructure and population in the area at risk. Work with experts to
conduct a thorough analysis of what solutions can work and the business case for them.
· Coastal ecosystem restoration: Coastal wetlands, coral reefs, marshes and
mangroves provide a nature-based defense against coastal flooding and storm
surges, reducing the need for man-made physical defenses. Protecting and
restoring this natural infrastructure offers an affordable adaptation solution
against rising seas. These ecosystems store water, stabilise sediment, prevent
erosion and reduce wave height. Cities should also support any larger-scale
efforts to address environmental degradation along the coast.
· Man-made physical structures: such as sea walls, dykes and levees
(embankments of soil, stone or cement that hold back water), and flood barriers.
Physical structures are usually more expensive than nature-based defenses and
can take many years to construct, but the cost may be offset by using them for
additional purposes. Ensure that the design of these structures is informed by a
risk assessment and not by historical norms, as outdated infrastructural models
are likely to result in inadequate defenses. It is also critical to ensure that
financing and governance structures are designed to enable regular
maintenance.
Design buildings and infrastructure to reduce the impact of coastal
flooding:
Alongside measures to keep water out, cities can adapt the built environment to reduce
the impact of flooding and inundation when it does occur. This means retrofitting
existing assets, ensuring that any new buildings and infrastructure in at-risk areas are
designed to withstand coastal flooding, and potentially requiring new construction to be
designed for future coastal retreat. Ban new construction in at-risk zones, including
through building regulations. Alternatively, consider purchasing flood-prone land to keep
it devoid of higher-value assets, or restore the land as a natural flood defense.
Designing parks, lakes and other public spaces within the city to absorb and store water
during coastal flooding events (as well as cloudburst or river flooding), improving
drainage and developing buildings and transport systems that float on the water.
Prepare for a planned retreat from at-risk areas:
Managed retreat is a contentious issue, but will become increasingly necessary as sea
levels continue to rise. The measures outlined above will reduce and delay the need for
retreat, but higher sea levels will inevitably require the planned movement of people and
assets out of some areas as they become inundated.
Globally, it is estimated that more than 300 million people will be forced to move by
2050 as a result of sea level rise, while hundreds of coastal cities could be under water.
Managed retreat presents legal, logistical, ethical, political, financial and architectural
challenges.
Hold early discussions about sea level rise and potential retreat and work with affected
residents, businesses, building owners, civil society and other groups to design
effective, locally appropriate and equitable solutions.
Plan over both short- and longer-term time horizons. This will prompt different questions
and needs, helping to integrate plans to defend coastlines and live with increased
flooding with the potential longer-term need for retreat. It will help to ensure that
investments with multi-decadal lifespans are designed with potential relocation in mind
and can help to build community support.
REFRENCES:
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Qureshi, A. A., & Sarfaraz, S. (2023). Sea-Level Rise in Pakistan:
Recommendations for Strengthening Evidence-Based Coastal Decision-
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[Link]
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