Unit 8 – Probability
Section 8.1 – Permutations, Combinations and Counting Principle
I) Factorial Notation
𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) ⋯ 3 ∙ 2 ∙ 1 where: 0! = 1
ex1) 10! = 10 ∙ 9 ∙ 8 ∙ 7 ∙ 6 ∙ 5 ∙ 4 ∙ 3 ∙ 2 ∙ 1 = 3,628,800
ex2) 6! = ex3) 3! ∙ 5! =
10! 𝑥!
ex4) = ex5) (𝑥−1)!
=
8!
Calculator has this operation under MATH PRB
II) Permutations – number of ways an event can happen when order is
specific (ORDER MATTERS).
Samples: order in a race, elections, places in a contest
A) Formula:
𝑛!
nPr= Where: 𝑛 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒
(𝑛−𝑟)!
𝑟 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑
B) Examples:
1) There are 14 students running for student council. How many different ways
can a President, Vice President and a Secretary be chosen?
2) There are 10 people running a race this weekend with first place getting $25,
second $15, third $10 and fourth $5. How many different ways can the prize
money be given out?
3) Given the word EQUATIONS, how many different four-letter permutations
can be formed?
4) How many different ways can you arrange five books on a shelf?
III) Combinations – number of ways an event can happen when order is not
specific (ORDER DOES NOT MATTER).
Samples: toppings on a pizza, players on a team, cards in a hand
A) Formula:
𝑛!
nCr= Where: 𝑛 = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒
𝑟!(𝑛−𝑟)!
𝑟 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑛
B) Examples:
1) You are going to order a large three-topping pizza. There are 12 possible
toppings to choose from. How many different pizzas can be made?
2) There are 13 players on the Suns. How many different five-player line-ups
can be made?
3) If your class has 30 students, how many different three-person committees
can be formed?
4) If 20 people enter a race and the first three places receive the same certificate,
how many ways can these be awarded?
IV) Fundamental Counting Principle – a way to determine the total possible
outcomes given a set of outcomes.
If there are m ways to choose the first item and n ways
to choose a second item after the first has been chosen,
then there are 𝑚 ∙ 𝑛 ways to choose all items.
Note: This can be extend to any number of different items.
Examples:
1) If as license plate consists of one letter followed by three digits, how many
different license plates are possible?
2) If your favorite pizza restaurant offers two different types of crust, three different
cheeses, and seven different toppings, how many ways can you make a pizza
choosing only one at a time?
3) You decide to order a different pizza but this time you choose 1 of 3 types of
crust, 2 of 3 types of cheese and 3 of 12 types of toppings. How many different
ways can you get your pizza?
Section 8.2 – Set Theory and Venn Diagrams
I) Definitions
1) Sample Space – all possible results of a situation
2) Universal Set – the possible values
3) Union – (∪) the combination of two sets, everything
4) Intersection – (∩) what the two sets have in common
5) Compliment – (𝐴′) what is not in set A
II) Sample Space Examples:
1) What is the sample space of the letters in “Desert Vista”?
2) What are all the possible values when you roll two die?
3) What are the card numbers in a standard deck of cards?
4) What are the suits in a standard deck of cards?
III) Sets:
Consider the Universal Set {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and
Set A = {0, 2, 4, 6}, Set B = {2, 3, 7, 8} and Set C = {1, 2, 4, 5, 8}
1) Find the Union 2) Find the Intersection
𝐴 ∪𝐵 𝐴 ∩𝐵
𝐵 ∪𝐶 𝐵 ∩𝐶
3) Find the Complement 4) Find: (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) ∩ 𝐶
A’
B’ 5) Find: (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′
III) Venn Diagrams – show the relationship between sets
Set A Set B
Shade each of the following using the Venn Diagram above:
1) Set A 2) Set B
3) A∪B 4) A∩B
Example:
Your class has 500 students, 150 play sports and 65 are in the band.
If 25 play sports and are in the band, construct a Venn Diagram and
find the following:
1) 𝐴∪𝐵
2) 𝐴∩𝐵
3) 𝐴′
4) (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )′
Section 8.3 – Introduction to Probability
I) Definitions:
Experiments – any event whose result is uncertain
Outcomes – possible results of an experiment
Sample Space – the set of all possible outcomes
Event – any subset of the sample space
II) Probability of an Event – the “likelihood” and event will occur
n E number of desired outcomes
PE
nS total number of outcomes
A) Probability is a number between 0 and 1:
(usually expressed as a fraction or decimal but sometimes as a percent)
0 PE 1
B) Probability of the Complement of an Event:
(Probability of an event not occurring)
P E ' 1 P E
III) Types of Problems:
Standard Deck of Cards: 52 cards
Four suits (Spades, Clubs, Hearts, Diamonds)
Spades and Clubs are black, Hearts and Diamonds are red
13 cards in each suit (Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King)
Face cards (Jack, Queen, King)
1) What is the Probability of drawing and Ace?
2) What is the Probability of drawing a Red card?
3) P(Club) 4) P(card between 3 and 5)
5) P(King of Hearts) 6) P(black face card)
Fair Die: six sides with dots of 1-6 on sides with opposite sides totaling 7
7) P(rolling a 3 on a die) 8) P(rolling an even number)
9) P(rolling two die and getting a sum of 7)
Fair Coin: heads and tails
10) P(heads on a coin)
A bag of marbles contains the following:
10 red, 20 blue, 15 green and 5 yellow
11) P(Red) 12) P(Blue)
13) P(Purple) 14) P(not a yellow)
IV) Compound Probability – when we find probability of multiple events we
multiply the probabilities of each independent event.
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
ex1) 𝑃(𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑎 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙 )
ex2) 𝑃(𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑎 5)
ex3) 𝑃("𝐵𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑘")
V) Subjective Probability – probability not based on a sample set but on the
possibility of something happening. Needs to be backed
up by a reasonable explanation.
ex1) I will pass my next test.
ex2) It will rain tomorrow.
Section 8.4 – Independent and Dependent Probability
I) Independent Events – two (or more) events in which the second event is
not affected by the result of the first event.
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵)
II) Dependent Events – two (or more) events in which the second event is
affected by the result of the first.
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) where: 𝐵|𝐴 = 𝐵 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝐴
A) Examples:
Determine if the event is Independent or Dependent
1) You have a standard deck of cards:
a. You draw a card, replace it, and then draw a second card.
b. You draw a card, keep it and then draw another.
2) You have a bag of marbles with 4 red, 5 blue and 7 yellow
a. You draw a red marble, replace it, and the draw a blue.
b. You draw a yellow marble and then draw red marble.
3) Other types:
a. A person’s height and their shoe size.
b. A person’s weight and their GPA.
B) Problems:
A bag of marbles contains 4 red, 5 blue and 7 yellow.
Find the probability of each:
1) Pull a red marble, replace it, and then pull a blue?
2) Pull a red marble, keep it, and then pull a blue?
3) Pull a yellow marble, keep it, and then pull another yellow?
4) Pull a blue marble, replace it, and then pull a white?
II) Proving Independence or Dependence:
If 𝑃(𝐴) ∙ 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵), then the events are independent, if not then
the events are dependent.
Ex) Determine if the two events are Independent or Dependent:
1) 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.3 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.2 and 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 0.06
2) 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.2 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.5 and 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 0.7
Section 8.5 – Addition Property of Probability
I) Probability of a Union – the probability of OR situations
Since the probability is of something being in event A
or event B it makes sense that:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
Example: In a group of 100 students there are 30 Freshman and 40 Sophomores.
Find the probability that a student selected at random is either a
Freshman or Sophomore. What would the Venn diagram look like?
1) 𝑃(𝐴) = 2) 𝑃(𝐵) =
3) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 4) 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) =
5) What do you notice?
Example: In a group of 100 students there are 40 Juniors, 50 are Female and 22
are Female Juniors. Find the probability that a student selected at
random is either a Junior or a Female. What would the Venn diagram
look like?
1) 𝑃(𝐴) = 2) 𝑃(𝐵) =
3) 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ) = 4) 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) =
5) What do you notice?
II) Probability of a Union – updated
A) Mutually Exclusive – two events that can not happen at the same time
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)
B) Not Mutually Exclusive – when two events have an “overlap”
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
You MUST take into account the overlap.
C) Examples:
1) If 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.8 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.6 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.3,
what is 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)?
2) If 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.1 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.75,
what is 𝑃(𝐵)?
3) Given a standard deck of cards, what is the probability of
drawing a Spade or the Ace of Hearts?
4) Given a standard deck of cards, what is the probability of
drawing a Red Face card or a Heart?
Section 8.6 – Data Tables
I) Two-way Data Tables – a way to organize and display data from two or
more sample spaces. We often use them to
determine outcomes and probability.
A) Given the table of data answer the questions:
Play Sport Don’t Play Total
Boys 54 32 86
Girls 47 23 70
Total 101 55 156
1) What is the probability of randomly selecting a boy and who plays a
sport?
2) What is the probability of randomly selecting an individual who is a
boy?
3) What is the probability of randomly selecting an individual that plays
sports?
4) If you randomly select a girl, what is the probability they play a sport?
5) If you randomly select someone who does not play a sport, what is the
probability they are a boy?
B) A survey was conducted for part time and full time boys and girls
enrolled at Great College. It was found that the number of boys
enrolled was 72 and 52 were full time. The number of girls enrolled
was 25 and 15 were part time.
Create a Data Table to display the information and then use it to
answer the questions.
Students Full Time Part Time Total
Boys
Girls
Total
1) What is the probability a student chosen at random is a boy?
2) What is the probability a student chosen at random is part time?
3) What is the probability a part time student is a girl?
4) What is the probability a boy is a full time student?
C) You did a survey of 200 students in your classes and found that 120
were juniors. You found that 40 of the juniors were not in Algebra 2
and 100 of the total were in Algebra 2.
Create a data table from these values using Juniors, Other Years,
Algebra 2 and Other Math Classes. Use your data table to answer the
questions.
1) What is the probability a student is in Algebra 2?
2) What is the probability a student is not a Junior?
3) What is the probability a student is a Senior?
4) What is the probability a Junior is taking Algebra 2?
5) What is the probability an Algebra 2 student is not a Junior?
Section 8.7 – Conditional Probability
I) Conditional Probability – the probability of an event given that
another event has occurred.
Notation: 𝑃(𝐴 | 𝐵 ) – the probability of event A occurring given that event
B has occurred. It becomes 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) since we want
event A to occur and we know event B did occur.
A) Formulas:
Dependent Events Independent Events
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 | 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 | 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) and 𝑃(𝐵 | 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵)
To find conditional probability it is often helpful to draw a “tree-diagram”
to map out the sample space of probabilities.
II) Examples:
1) The students at a certain high school are 51% males. Of the students
at the high school, 45% of the males and 40% of the females said they
regularly attend concerts.
a. Draw a tree-diagram to represent the sample space
b. Find the probability that a student regularly attends concerts.
c. Find the probability that a student is a female and does not attend
concerts.
2) A student made the following observations of the weather in his
hometown:
28% of the days the sky is mostly clear
During clear days, it rains 4% of the time
During cloudy days, it rains 31% of the time.
a. Draw a tree-diagram
b. 𝑃(𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛)
c. 𝑃(𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 | 𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑑𝑦)
d. 𝑃(𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑑𝑦 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑜 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛)
e. 𝑃(𝑛𝑜 𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛 | 𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑟)
3) Using a standard deck of cards:
a. What is the probability of drawing the King of Hearts?
b. What is the probability of drawing the King of Hearts given that a
red card was drawn?
c. What is the probability of drawing the King of Hearts given that a
King was drawn?
d. Are the events “Draw a King of Hearts” and “Draw a red card”
independent? Why or why not?
e. Are the events “Draw a King of Hearts” and “Draw a King”
independent? Why or why not?