Sampling and sampling variability

Presentation by: Dr. Bhushan Kamble

Moderator: Dr. Poornima Tiwari

Professor,
Department of Community Medicine,
VMMC & SJH
 Outline of presentation
• Definitions
• Need for sampling
• Types of sampling design
 Probability sampling
 Non probability sampling
• Factors affecting choice of sampling design
• Sample size
 Factors affecting sample size
 Calculation of sample size for
• Descriptive studies
• Comparison studies
• Sampling variability
• Sampling errors
• References
Definitions
 Population: The target group to which the findings (of a study)
would ultimately apply is called population1
Or
 Population is the term statisticians use to describe a large set or
collection of items that have something in common2.

 Sample: is that part of the target population which is actually

enquired upon or investigated1.
Or
 Sample is a subset of population, selected in such a way that it
is representative of the larger population2
1. Indrayan A., Satyanarayana L., Medical Biostatistics, third edition, 2009
2. Last JM. Dictionary of Epidemiology, 3 rd edition, 2000.
 Definitions (cont.)
Sampling: is the process of selecting a small number of
elements from a larger defined target group of elements such
that the information gathered from the small group will allow
judgments to be made about the larger groups.
conclusions based on the sample results may be attributed only
to the population sampled*.
.

*Dawson B., Trapp RG, Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, second edition, 1994
Definitions cont..
 Sampling unit: is the unit of selection

 Unit of study or element: is the subject on which information is

obtained.
 Sampling frame: list of all sampling units in the target population
is called a sampling frame.
 Sample size: the number of units or subjects sampled for inclusion
in the study is called sample size.
 Sampling technique: Method of selecting sampling units from
sampling frame
 Population Vs. Sample
Population of Interest

Sample

Population Sample

Parameter Statistic

We measure the sample using statistics in order to draw

inferences about the population and its parameters.
Population you want to Target population
generalize results to

Population you have access Study population

to for your study

How can you get access to 1.

study population? 2. Sampling frame
3…..

Study actually done on? Sample

 Need for sampling
1. Complete enumeration may not be possible.
2. Resources: Lower cost, Lesser demand on personnel.
3. Speed: Faster results due to lesser coverage.
4. Reliable information: Due to small size - better trained
personnel, more accurate methods, better supervision.
 To draw conclusions about population from sample, there are
two major requirements for a sample.
Firstly, the sample size should be large.
 Secondly, the sample has to be selected appropriately so that
it is representative of the population. Sample should have all
the characteristics of the population.
 Disadvantages of sampling
1. Sampling entails an argument from the fraction to the
whole. Validity depends on representativeness of the
sample.
2. Fails to provide precise information in case of small
segments containing few individuals.
3. Not necessary in studies where complete enumeration is
needed.
4. May cause a feeling of discrimination among the subjects
who are not included in the study.
Types of sampling

Probability sampling Non probability sampling

 Probability of selection of  Probability of selection of
each individual is known each individual is not
and pre determined known
Simple random sampling Quota sampling
Systematic random Purposive/ Judgmental
sampling sampling
Stratified random Snowball/ Network
sampling sampling
Cluster random sampling Convenience/ Grab
Multistage random sampling (man in the
sampling street)
Simple random sampling

 Equal probability of selection of units for inclusion in the study

 Requires a list of all sampling units (sampling frame)
 Each individual is chosen randomly.
 Methods:
Lottery method (possible for finite population)
Random number tables
Software that generate random numbers
Lottery method

Lottery
method
 Random number table

76 58 30 83 64

47 56 91 29 34

10 80 21 38 84

00 95 01 31 76

07 28 37 07 61
 Simple random sampling (contd.)
 Simple random method
With replacement
Without replacement
 Advantage
Very scientific method
Equal chance of all subjects for selection
 Disadvantage
Requires sampling frame
 Example:
Blood sampling – TLC, Hb estimation
Stratified random sampling

 Preferred method when the population is heterogeneous with

respect to characteristic under study.
 Population is divided into groups or strata on the basis of
certain characteristics.
 A simple random sample is selected from each strata.
 Ensures representation of different strata/ groups in the study
population.
 Can be done by selecting individuals from different strata in
certain fixed predetermined proportions.
 Proportional stratified sampling
 Dis-proportionate stratified sampling
 Stratified random sampling(contd.)
For example, if we draw a simple random sample from a
population, a sample of 100 may contain
10 to 15 from high socioeconomic group
20 to 25 from middle socioeconomic group
70 to 75 from low socioeconomic group

To get adequately large representation for all the three socio
economic structures, we can stratify on socioeconomic class
and select simple random samples from each of the three
strata.
 POPULATION

HIGH MIDDLE LOW

SOCIOECONOMIC SOCIOECONOMIC SOCIOECONOMIC
 Stratified random sampling(contd.)
 Advantage:
All groups, however small are equally represented.
When we want to highlight a specific subgroup within the
population. Ensures presence of the subgroup.
Observe existing relationships between two or more
subgroups.
Can representatively sample even the smallest and most
inaccessible subgroups in the population. To sample the rare
extremes of the given population.
Higher statistical precision compared to simple random
sampling. (d/t lesser variability). So less time and money.
 Disadvantage:
Requires a sampling frame for each stratum separately.
Requires accurate information on proportions of each stratum
Systematic random sampling
Systematic sampling is a commonly employed technique,
when complete and up to date list of sampling units is
available.

 A systematic random sample is obtained by

 Selecting the first unit on a random basis
 Then others are included on the basis of sampling interval
I = N/n.
 Systematic random sampling(contd.)

 For example, if there are 100 patients (N) in a hospital and to select a
sample of 20 patients (n) by systematic random sampling procedure,
 Step 1: write the names of 100 patients in alphabetical order or their
roll numbers one below the other.
 Step 2: sampling fraction: divide N by n to get the sampling fraction
(k).In the example k=100/20 = 5.
 Step 3: randomly select any number between 1 to k i.e. between 1 to
5. Suppose the number we select is 4.
 Step 4: patient number 4 is selected in the sample.
 Step 5: Thereafter every 4+k th patient is selected in the sample until
we reach the last one.
Systematic random sampling(contd.)
 Systematic random sampling(contd.)
 Advantage:
easy to draw, simplicity.
assurance that the population will be evenly sampled.
 Disadvantage:
Requires sampling frame.

Eg. Random blinded rechecking of slides under RNTCP. Slides

are drawn from the register by systematic random sampling.
Cluster sampling
 The population is divided into subgroups (clusters) like
families. A simple random sample is taken of the subgroups
and then all members of the cluster selected are surveyed.

 Cluster sampling is used when the population is

heterogeneous.

 Clusters are formed by grouping units on the basis of their

geographical locations.

 Cluster sampling is a very useful method for the field

epidemiological research and for health administrators.
 Cluster sampling
Cluster 1 Cluster 2

Cluster 3

Cluster 5

Cluster 4
 Cluster sampling (contd.)
 Types:
One stage – when all units in the selected cluster are selected.
Two stage – only some units from a selected cluster are taken
using simple random or systematic random sampling.
 Advantages
Simple as complete list of sampling units within population not
required
Low cost
Can estimate characteristics of both cluster and population
Less travel/resources required
 Disadvantages
Potential problem is that cluster members are more likely to be
alike, than those in another cluster (homogenous).
Each stage in cluster sampling introduces sampling error—
the more stages there are, the more error there tends to be
 Usually less expensive than SRS but not as accurate
 Cluster sampling (contd.)
 A special form of cluster sampling called the “30 X 7 cluster
sampling”, has been recommended by the WHO for field
studies in assessing vaccination coverage.
 In this a list of all villages (clusters) for a given geographical
area is made.
 30 clusters are selected using Probability Proportional to Size
(PPS).
 From each of the selected clusters, 7 subjects are randomly
chosen.
 Thus a total sample of 30 x 7 = 210 subjects is chosen.
 The advantage of cluster sampling is that sampling frame is not
required
 Probability proportional to size (PPS)
Steps:
List of all clusters (villages and sectors/wards) is made.
Population of each cluster is written against them.
Cumulative population is then written in serial order.
Sampling interval is calculated = Total cumulative population/30
 Choose a random number between 1 and the SI. This is the Random
Start (RS). The first cluster to be sampled contains this cumulative
population
Calculate the following series: RS; RS + SI; RS + 2SI; …. RS+(d-
1)*SI.
 The clusters selected are those for which the cumulative population
contains one of the serial numbers.
 Multistage random sampling
 Multistage sampling refers to sampling plans where the sampling is
carried out in stages
using smaller and smaller sampling units at each stage.

Not all Secondary Units Sampled normally used to overcome

problems associated with a geographically dispersed population
Multistage random sampling
 In this method, the whole population is divided in first stage
sampling units from which a random sample is selected.
 The selected first stage is then subdivided into second stage units
from which another sample is selected.
 Third and fourth stage sampling is done in the same manner if
necessary.
 Example:
NFHS data is collected by multistage sampling.
Rural areas – 2 stage sampling – Villages from list by PPS,
Households from village
Urban areas – Wards (PPS) – CEB (PPS) – 30 households
from each CEB
WAR
D CEB HOUSHOLD
 Non probability sampling

The probability of each case being selected from the total

population is not known

Units of the sample are chosen on the basis of personal judgment

or convenience

There are NO statistical techniques for measuring random

sampling error in a non-probability sample. Therefore,
generalizability is never statistically appropriate
 Non probability sampling
• Involves non random methods in selection of sample

• All have not equal chance of being selected

• Selection depend upon situation

• Considerably less expensive

• Convenient
Types of Non probability sampling
 Convenience/Grab/Availability
 Judgment/Purposive sampling
 Quota sampling
 Snowball/Network
 Convenience/Grab/Availability sampling
 Subjects selected because it is easy to access them.
 No Students in your class, people on Street, friends etc
 Advantages:
In pilot studies, convenience sample is usually used to obtain basic
data and trends.
In documenting that a particular quality of a substance or
phenomenon occurs within a given sample.
 Disadvantages:
Not representative of the entire population – skewed results.
Limitation in generalization and inference making about the entire
population – low external validity.
Snowball/Network sampling
 If the sample for the study is very rare or is limited to a very
small subgroup of the population.
 Works like a chain referral.
 Initial subject  helps identify people with a similar trait.
 Advantages:
To reach rare and difficult to access populations.
Cheap, cost – efficient.
Lesser workforce, lesser planning.
 Disadvantages:
Little control over sampling technique.
Representativeness is not guaranteed.
Sampling bias d/t people referring known people who are
more likely to be similar.
Purposive or judgmental sampling
 The specialty of an authority can select a more representative
sample. Knowledge of research question required.
 Subjects selected for a good reason tied to purposes of research.
 Advantages:
Hard-to-get populations that cannot be found through
screening general population.
Usually used when a limited number of individuals possess
the trait of interest.
 Disadvantages:
No way to evaluate the reliability of the expert or the
authority.
Biased since no randomization was used in obtaining the
sample. So results cannot be generalised.
Quota sampling
• The population is divided into cells on the basis of relevant
control characteristics.
• A quota of sample units is established for each cell.
• A convenience sample is drawn for each cell until the quota is
met.
• Pre-plan number of subjects in specified categories(e.g. 100
men, 100 women).
• In uncontrolled quota sampling, the subjects chosen for those
categories are a convenience sample.
• In controlled quota sampling, restrictions are imposed to limit
interviewer’s choice.
•To sample a subgroup that is of great interest to the study.
•To observe relationships between subgroups.
•Example – an interviewer may be told to sample 50 males and
50 females.
Advantages:
•Used when research budget limited
•Introduces some elements of stratification

Disadvantages:
•Variability and bias can not be controlled or measured
•Time consuming
Factors affecting choice of sampling
designs
 Heterogeneity: need larger sample to study more diverse
population
 Desired precision: need larger sample to get smaller error
 Nature of analysis: complex multivariate statistics need
larger samples

 Accuracy of sample depends upon sample size, not ratio of

sample to population
Sample size
Factors affecting sample size
1. Study design: descriptive or 7. The extent of variability
comparison study among measurements( S.D.)
8. Whether underlying
2. Sampling design: smaller if distribution is normal or
stratified, larger if cluster skewed
3. Type and number of 9. Heterogeneity of population:
variables being studied. need larger sample to study
more diverse population
4. Maximum tolerable 10. Desired precision: need
probability of type I error. larger sample to get smaller
error
5. Required power for a
11. Nature of analysis: complex
specified clinically important multivariate statistics need
difference. larger samples
6. Specification of the 12. Resources and time at hand
magnitude of difference that
would be considered
significant.
Calculation of sample size
 SAMPLE SIZE FOR QUALITATIVE OUTCOME
VARIABLE
n=4𝑃𝑃/𝑃2
 n= sample size
P= estimated prevalence
Q= 1-P
L= allowable error
A survey is to estimate prevalence of influenza virus infection in school kids.
Suppose the available evidence suggests that approximately 20% (P=20) of the
children will have antibodies to the virus. Assume the investigator wants to
estimate the prevalence within 6% of the true value (6% is called allowable error;
L)
The required sample size is :
n = (4 x 20 x 80) / (6 x 6) = 177.78
Thus approximately 180 kids would be needed for the survey
 Sample size for estimation of mean

n= z2a/2s2
l2
Where, n= sample size
s= standard deviation
l= absolute precision
z= relative deviate
a= alpha error

Za/2 = 1.96 for a= 0.05

n = 4 s2
l2
 Example
Suppose that it was required to estimate diastolic blood pressure in a
population to within ±2mmHg (using a 95% confidence interval)
and the standard deviation of diastolic blood pressure was known
to be 15mmHg.
S= 15 l= 2
n = 4 s2
l2

N= 4× (225/4)= 216.09

The next highest integer is taken, giving a requirement of 217 subjects

Sample size for estimation of proportion
n= z2a/2p(1-p)
l2
Where, n= sample size
p= anticipated value of proportion in population
l= absolute precision
z= relative deviate
a= alpha error

Za/2 = 1.96 for a= 0.05

n= 4 p(1-p)
l2
 Example
Suppose it is thought that there are about 28% smokers in the
population and it is required to estimate the percentage of
smokers to within ±3% (in absolute terms), using a 95%
confidence interval.
p= 0.28 l= 0.03
n= 4 p(1-p) n= 4 ×0.28(1-0.28)
l2 (0.03)2
n= 860.5
so that a survey of 861 persons is required,
 Sample size for estimation of rate
n= 4 r2
l2

where: r = estimated rate in the population

l = absolute precision
 Suppose that a rate is expected to be around 25 per million (per
year) and it is required to estimate it with a 95% confidence interval
to within ± 5 per million. The number of cases required to achieve
this level of precision is
n= 4 (25)2
(5)2
n= 96.04

which means that 97 cases would have to be observed

 Sample size for estimation of difference
between two population means
n= z2a/2 (s12 + s22 )
l2
Where, n= sample size
s= standard deviation ( subscript 1,2 refer to two
populations)
l= absolute precision
z= relative deviate
a= alpha error

Za/2 = 1.96 for a= 0.05

n= 4 (s12 + s22 )
Sample size for estimation of difference
between two population proportion
n= z2a/2[ p1(1-p1) + p2 (1-p2) ]
l2
Where, n= sample size
p= anticipated value of proportion in population
( subscript 1,2 refer to two populations)
l= absolute precision
z= relative deviate
a= alpha error

Za/2 = 1.96 for a= 0.05

n= 4 [ p1(1-p1) + p2 (1-p2) ]
l2
 Sampling variability
Sampling variability refers to the different values which a given
function of the data takes when it is computed for two or more
samples drawn from the same population.
Factors affecting sampling variability:
[Link] variation in the population
2. Sample size
[Link] distribution of the mean
[Link] error and bias.
 Eg. Population of 7000 children and their birth weight. The mean and
standard deviation for this distribution are 3.36 and 0.56 respectively.
N Sample 1 Sample 2 Sample 3 Sample 4 Sample 5
1 3.09 4.28 4.09 2.34 4.29
2 3.74 2.82 2.96 3.06 2.87
3 2.56 3.80 3.09 3.35 3.43
4 3.63 1.89 3.14 3.30 3.40
5 2.96 4.04 3.14 4.36 3.58
6 2.76 2.39 4.38 3.99 3.96
7 3.98 3.41 3.87 4.62 3.18
8 3.76 3.95 4.34 3.18 3.07
9 2.66 5.83 3.81 2.80 2.70
10 3.16 3.30 4.16 3.14 3.21
N 10 10 10 10 10
Mean 3.23 3.57 3.70 3.41 3.37
SD 0.51 1.10 0.56 0.71 0.48
Minimum 2.56 1.89 2.96 2.34 2.70
maximum 3.98 5.83 4.38 4.62 4.28
Irrespective of sample size , the sample means are expected to
fluctuate evenly about the true population mean.
The variation in sample means exhibited in the table is an example
of sampling variation due to chance.
If we take 50 observations ,mean is 3.46 kg. sampling error 3.46-
3.36= 0.10
The means vary less(by chance) if the sample size is large; that is
sampling error is smaller,the larger is the sample.
The distribution more closely clustered around a middle value as the
sample size increases.
The mean do not systematically increase or decrease with increasing
sampling and have more variability(larger SD) when the sample size
is small.
The standard deviation of the means steadily decrease as sample size
increases, more quickly when the sample size is small.
The sampling distribution of the mean
 A sampling experiment(based on the distribution of birth weights): what happens
to mean and variability of a sample mean when we keep doubling the sample size

N Mean of population values=3.36 SD of population values=0.56

SD of sample means
Mean of sample means(kg) (observed SE OF Mean;kg)
2 3.50 0.40
4 3.51 0.28
8 3.46 0.19
16 3.45 0.11
32 3.44 0.080
64 3.46 0.06
 Sampling error
• Types of sampling error: 1. sample error
• 2. non sample error

 SAMPLE ERROR: is incurred when the statistical characteristics of a

population are estimated from a subset, or sample, of that population.
For example, if one measures the height of a thousand individuals
from a country of one million, the average height of the thousand
is typically not the same as the average height of all one million
people in the country.
 Sample error (random error)
• Error caused by the act of taking a sample
• They cause sample results to be different from the results of
census
• Size of error can be measured in probability samples
• Expressed as “standard error”
• of mean, proportion…
• We have no control over
• Sample error depends upon:
• Size of the sample (larger size  lesser error)
• Distribution of character of interest in population
Non sample error
 Non response error: A non-response error occurs when
units selected as part of the sampling procedure do not
respond in whole or in part
 Response error: A response or data error is any systematic
bias that occurs during data collection, analysis or
interpretation
• Respondent error (e.g., lying, forgetting, etc.)
• Interviewer bias
• Recording errors
• Poorly designed questionnaires
 References
1. Indrayan A., Satyanarayana L., Medical Biostatistics, third edition,
2009
2. Last JM. Dictionary of Epidemiology, 3rd edition, 2000.
3. Dawson B., Trapp RG, Basic and Clinical Biostatistics, second
edition, 1994
4. Daly LE, Bourke GJ, Interpretation and uses of medical statistics,
fifth edition, 2003
5. Detels R., Beaglehole R., Oxford Textbook of public health, fifth
edition,2011.
Thank You