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…………

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3/36
n = 10 n = 500 tosses
tosse P(head) = P(tail) is close to 0.5
s

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Law of Large Numbers

When number of trials becomes larger, the

proportion of success will be close to the theoretical
probability.

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Simulation

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SUMMARY

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8/36
 Probability Model (= Probability Distribution)

Example (Throwing a dice)

Sample space : {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Probability model (or probability distribution) is

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

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Example (Throwing two die)

Sample space :

{(1,1) (1,2) (1,3)…………….(1,6)

(2,1) (2,2) (2,3)…………….(2,6)
: : : :
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3)………………(6,6) }

Each has a probability of 1/36.

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Construct a probability distribution of the SUM of the outcomes of
throwing 2 die.

Let X be a random variable that represents the sum when two six-sided
dice are rolled.
Sample space --- a list of all possible outcomes.
Sample Space:

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Event An occurrence

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Basic Rules of Probability

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Rule: Sum of probability of all simple outcomes = 1

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 P(A or B)

Or using P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B) = 90/178 + 103/178 – 19/178 = 174/178
We can use VENNA DIAGRAM to explain the situation. ➔ ➔ 15/36
16/36
Complement of event A
= events not belong to A

Mutually Exclusive Events

= events will NOT occur at the
same time OR
= events have NO COMMON
OUTCOMES

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A n B refers to the case in
which two events have
COMMON outcomes OR
two events occur AT THE
SAME TIME.

A U B refers to the case

in which either A or B or
both occur.

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19/36
Venn Diagram

P ( not A and not B)

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SUMMARY (1/2)

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SUMMARY (2/2)

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23/36
◼ What is Conditional Probability?

+
Conditional Probability and Independence
The probability we assign to an event can change if we know that some
other event has occurred. This idea is the key to many applications of
probability.

When we are trying to find the probability that one event will happen
under the condition that some other event is already known to have
occurred, we are trying to determine a conditional probability.

Definition:
The probability that one event happens given that another event
is already known to have happened is called a conditional
probability. Suppose we know that event A has happened.
Then the probability that event B happens given that event A
has happened is denoted by P(B | A).

Read | as “given that”

or “under the
condition that” 24/36
◼ Example: Grade Distributions

+
Define events

Conditional Probability and Independence

E: the grade comes from an EPS course, and
L: the grade is lower than a B.

Total
6300
(EPS) 1600
2100
Total 3392 2952 3656 10000

Find P(L)
P(L) = 3656 / 10000 = 0.3656
Find P(E | L)
P(E | L) = 800 / 3656 = 0.2188
Find P(L | E)
P(L| E) = 800 / 1600 = 0.5000
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 ◼ Conditional Probability and Independence

+
Conditional Probability and Independence
When knowledge that one event has happened does not change
the likelihood that another event will happen, we say the two
events are independent.

Definition:
Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of one
event has no effect on the chance that the other event will
happen. In other words, events A and B are independent if
P(A | B) = P(A) and P(B | A) = P(B).
Example:
Are the events “male” and “left-handed”
independent? Justify your answer.

P(left-handed | male) = 3/23 = 0.13

P(left-handed) = 7/50 = 0.14

These probabilities are not equal, therefore the

events “male” and “left-handed” are not independent. 26/36
 ◼ Tree Diagrams

+
Conditional Probability and Independence
We learned how to describe the sample space S of a chance
process in Section 5.2. Another way to model chance behavior
that involves a sequence of outcomes is to construct a tree
diagram.

Consider flipping a
coin twice.

What is the probability

of getting two heads?

Sample Space:
HH HT TH TT

So, P(two heads) = P(HH) = 1/4

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◼ General Multiplication Rule

+
Conditional Probability and Independence
The idea of multiplying along the branches in a tree diagram
leads to a general method for finding the probability P(A ∩ B)
that two events happen together.

General Multiplication Rule

The probability that events A and B both occur can be
found using the general multiplication rule
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B | A)
where P(B | A) is the conditional probability that event
B occurs given that event A has already occurred.

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General Multiplication Rule
(Formula for Conditional Probability)

1. Conditional Probability
• P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B|A) or P(B) x P(A|B)

2. If A and B are independent, then

• P (A |B) = P(A)
• P(B |A) = P(B)
• P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

3. If A and B are not independent, then we should use the first

formula.
◼ Example: Teens with Online Profiles

+
Conditional Probability and Independence
The Pew Internet and American Life Project finds that 93% of teenagers (ages
12 to 17) use the Internet, and that 55% of online teens have posted a profile
on a social-networking site.

What percent of teens are online and have posted a profile?

P(use internet) = 0.93

Use internet P(profile | use internet) = 0.55

P(use internet and have profile) = P(use internet)

P(profile | useinternet)

= (0.93)(0.55)
= 0.5115

51.15% of teens are “use internet”

and have posted a profile.
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 ◼ Independence: A Special Multiplication Rule

+
Conditional Probability and Independence
When events A and B are independent, we can simplify the
general multiplication rule since P(B| A) = P(B).

Definition:
Multiplication rule for independent events
If A and B are independent events, then the probability that A
and B both occur is
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B)

Example:
Following the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, it was determined that the failure
of O-ring joints in the shuttle’s booster rockets was to blame. Under cold
conditions, it was estimated that the probability that an individual O-ring joint would
function properly was 0.977. Assuming O-ring joints succeed or fail independently,
what is the probability all six would function properly?

P(joint1 OK and joint 2 OK and joint 3 OK and joint 4 OK and joint 5 OK and joint 6 OK)
=P(joint 1 OK) • P(joint 2 OK) • … • P(joint 6 OK)
=(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977) = 0.87 31/36
 Another example of independence
Suppose that Pedro drives the same route to work on Monday through Friday .
His route includes one traffic light. The probability that the light will be green
when Pedro arrives is 0.42, yellow is 0.03, and red is 0.55.
1. What’s the probability that the light is green on Monday and red on Tuesday?
Let event A be green light on Monday and event B be red light on Tuesday .

These two events are independent because knowing that the light was green on
Monday doesn’t help us predict the color of the light on Tuesday .

By the multiplication rule for independent events,

P (A and B) = P (A ∩ B) = P (A) ⋅ P (B)
P (green on Monday and red on Tuesday) = P (A and B) = P (A) ⋅ P (B) = (0.42) (0.55)
= 0.231
There’s about a 23% chance that the light will be green on Monday and red on Tuesday

2. What’s the probability that Pedro finds the light red on Monday through Friday?

P (red Monday and red Tuesday and red Wednesday and red Thursday and red Friday)
= P (red Monday) ⋅ P (red Tuesday) ⋅ P (red Wednesday) ⋅ P (red Thursday) ⋅ P (red Friday
= (0.55)(0.55)(0.55)(0.55)(0.55) = (0.55)5 = 0.0503
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An example of conditional probability
◼ Example: Who Reads the Newspaper?

+
Conditional Probability and Independence
Let A be event that residents of a large apartment complex reads USA Today
B be event that residents of a large apartment complex reads New York Times
The Venn Diagram below describes the residents.
What is the probability that a randomly selected resident who reads USA Today
also reads the New York Times?

P(A  B)
P(B | A) =
P(A)

P(A  B) = 0.05
P(A) = 0.40
0.05
P(B | A) = = 0.125
0.40
There is a 12.5% chance that a randomly selected resident who reads USA
Today also reads the New York Times. 33/36
An example of conditional probability

P(A |B ) = P(A and B) / P(B)

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An example of checking if events are independent or
not

Question:

Solution

Since P(B | A) = 0.211 not equal to P(B) = 0.579, B is

affected A . So, A and B are NOT INDEPENDENT.
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+ Section 5.3 SUMMARY
Conditional Probability and Independence
Summary
In this section, we learned that…

✓ If one event has happened, the chance that another event will happen is a
conditional probability. P(B|A) represents the probability that event B
occurs given that event A has occurred.
✓ Events A and B are independent if the chance that event B occurs is not
affected by whether event A occurs. If two events are mutually exclusive
(disjoint), they cannot be independent.
✓ When chance behavior involves a sequence of outcomes, a tree diagram
can be used to describe the sample space.
✓ The general multiplication rule states that the probability of events A
and B occurring together is P(A ∩ B)=P(A) • P(B|A)
✓ In the special case of independent events, P(A ∩ B)=P(A) • P(B)
✓ The conditional probability formula states P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A) 36/36