The United Republic of Tanzania

Tanzania Agriculture Master Plan 2050

Strategy to Transform the Crops Livestock and
Fisheries Sectors

August 2024
Foreword
As we stand at the cusp of a new era in the agricultural sector, it is imperative that we have a clear
roadmap to guide us towards sustainable and inclusive growth in this vital sector. The Agricultural
Master Plan outlined in this document is the culmination of extensive research, consultation, and
collaboration with stakeholders from across the industry.

The Agricultural Master Plan is a key pillar that will provide a clear path towards Tanzania becoming
a higher middle-income country by 2050. This ambition will be fueled by expansion of land under
irrigation, improved inputs use, mechanization of farm activities, improved access to extension
services, and reduction of post-harvest losses. Furthermore, it will improve access to local and
international market, enhance research and development, promote adoption of innovation and
technology and implementation of policy and regulatory reforms to facilitate trade and value
addition, as well as increase youth and women employment in agriculture.

Through this Agricultural Master Plan, we aim to harness the potential of our agricultural sector to
drive economic growth, create employment opportunities, and improve the livelihoods of millions of
farmers. It is a blueprint for transforming the food systems to be more sustainable, resilient,
equitable and have the capability to meet the needs of a growing population while protecting our
natural resources.

This Agricultural Master Plan emerges as a beacon, guiding us toward a sustainable and
prosperous future where tradition and innovation converge. This visionary blueprint, driven by a
collective commitment to excellence and inclusivity, places the private sector, youth and women at
the forefront of agricultural innovation and development, building upon the rich heritage of our
nation's existing agriculture plans.

Crops, livestock, and fisheries are beacons that represent our heritage, diversity, and ingenuity. As
we navigate the complexities of the 21st century, from climate change and resource scarcity to
evolving consumer demands and technological advancements, the leadership and expertise of the
private sector serve as catalysts for change and progress.

The Agricultural Master Plan 2050 is a testament to the power of collaboration, partnership, and
shared vision. At its heart are ambitious flagship initiatives that leverage the strengths of the various
stakeholders and build on the foundations of our existing agriculture plans.

From promoting sustainable agricultural practices and enhancing value chains to fostering
innovation hubs and digital agriculture platforms, these flagships embody our commitment to
unlocking the full potential of agriculture. This, in turn, will drive economic growth, enhance food
security, and promote environmental stewardship.

As we embark on this transformative journey, we would like to express our gratitude to all experts,
policymakers, farmers, development partners and stakeholders who have contributed their
expertise and insights to the development of this ambitious Master Plan. We are confident that with
their continued support and commitment, we will realize the full potential of the sector and build a
prosperous future towards a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agricultural sector

Hon. Hussein Mohamed Bashe (MP) Hon. Abdallah Hamis Ulega (MP)

Minister of Agriculture Minister of Livestock and Fisheries

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Table of contents
1. Executive summary ........................................................................................ 10
2. The Agriculture Master Plan: a pillar to transform the agricultural sector 18
A. Agricultural transformation as a driver of economic prosperity ............... 18
B. The design of the Agriculture Master Plan (AMP) ................................... 21
C. Vision 2050 ............................................................................................. 26
D. 2030 Ambitions ....................................................................................... 30
3. The state of the agricultural sector in Tanzania .......................................... 33
A. Current and historical context of the agricultural sector in Tanzania ...... 33
B. An enabling environment for the agricultural sector ................................ 44
C. Crops sector ............................................................................................ 52
D. Livestock sector ...................................................................................... 92
E. Fisheries sector ..................................................................................... 111
4. Flagships and commodities to drive the transformation .......................... 122
A. Overview flagships and commodities .................................................... 122
B. Impact of flagships and commodities .................................................... 130
C. Deep dive into the 15 flagships of the AMP .......................................... 134
D. Deep dives into the 20 commodities ..................................................... 152
E. The AMP’s regional perspective ........................................................... 179
5. Implementation .............................................................................................. 182
A. Governance .......................................................................................... 182
B. Financing .............................................................................................. 182
C. The AMP’s contribution to Tanzania’s existing commitments ............... 185
D. Six key elements to ensure successful implementation of the AMP ..... 187
6. Annex ............................................................................................................. 189
A. Examples of successful agricultural transformation .............................. 189
B. Overview of flagships across the value chain and the link to the guiding
principles......................................................................................................... 192
C. Detailed flagships .................................................................................. 197
D. Flexibility of implementation of the AMP ............................................... 312
E. Link to macroeconomic and development commitments ...................... 313
F. Link to ASDP II priority investment areas and the midterm review
recommendations ........................................................................................... 322
G. Modelling the Economywide Impacts of the Masterplan ....................... 326
H. Crop suitability analysis ........................................................................ 328
I. Glossary ................................................................................................... 329

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Table of figures
Figure 1: The four stages of agricultural transformation with illustrative AgGDP growth ....... 19
Figure 2: The iterative development process of the AMP ...................................................... 21
Figure 3: Reports, stakeholders, organisations, experts consulted in the AMP development
process .................................................................................................................................. 24
Figure 4: : Key enablers of agricultural Vision 2050, 2024-30 ............................................... 28
Figure 5: Key enablers of agricultural Vision 2050, 2031-40 ................................................. 29
Figure 6: Key enablers of agricultural Vision 2050, 2041-50 ................................................. 30
Figure 7: Breakdown of agricultural GDP by subsectors and commodity .............................. 34
Figure 8: Agricultural output*, 1960-2020 (bn 2015 USD) (OWID) ........................................ 35
Figure 9: Arable land, 1960-2021 (mn ha) (FAO) .................................................................. 35
Figure 10: GDP from agriculture, forestry and fishing, 2012-22 (tn 2015 TZS) (IFPRI)......... 35
Figure 11: Export of crops and livestock products**, 1961-2021 (bn USD) (FAO) ................ 35
Figure 12: Prevalence of undernourishment, 2001-21 (%, 3-year average) (FAO) ............... 35
Figure 13: Tanzania’s key agriculture-related strategies ....................................................... 36
Figure 14 Map showing the croplands in Tanzania ............................................................... 55
Figure 15 Chart showing the regional breakdown of croplands in Tanzania ......................... 55
Figure 16 Map showing potentially suitable land for agriculture in Tanzania......................... 55
Figure 17 Chart showing regional breakdown of current and potentially suitable land for
agriculture in Tanzania........................................................................................................... 55
Figure 18: Structure of total farmer land access .................................................................... 56
Figure 19: Map of Tanzania showing the status of land degradation around the country. .... 58
Figure 20: Structure of farmer land ownership....................................................................... 58
Figure 21: Processing cost of acquiring land as a percentage of property value in Tanzania
versus peers .......................................................................................................................... 59
Figure 22: Timelines for acquiring property in Tanzania versus peers .................................. 59
Figure 23: Breakdown of Tanzania’s irrigation potential versus its current actual distribution
............................................................................................................................................... 60
Figure 24 Area under irrigation, 2014-2023 ........................................................................... 61
Figure 25: Water resources in Tanzania ................................................................................ 62
Figure 26: 2022 priority crops production .............................................................................. 64
Figure 27 Maize production and harvested area 2012 - 2022. .............................................. 65
Figure 28: Production of major food crops 2021-2023........................................................... 66
Figure 29: Yield of select food crops in Tanzania, EAC and Africa ....................................... 66
Figure 30: Production of priority traditional cash crops 2019-2023........................................ 67
Figure 31: Yield of select traditional cash crops in Tanzania, EAC and Africa ...................... 67
Figure 32: Production of horticulture crops 2021-2023 .......................................................... 68
Figure 33: Yield of select horticulture crops in Tanzania, EAC and Africa............................. 68
Figure 34: Average post-harvest loss of select food crops, 2015-2020 ................................. 69
Figure 35: Perception of farmers on the causes of post-harvest losses ................................ 69
Figure 36: Tanzania NFRA capacity and network ................................................................. 71
Figure 37: Evolution of number of tractors in Tanzania ......................................................... 72
Figure 38: Land cultivation distribution by method................................................................. 72
Figure 39: Fertiliser usage across the world .......................................................................... 73
Figure 40: Results of CGIAR fertiliser demonstration experiment on Maize in Iringa, Tanzania
............................................................................................................................................... 73
Figure 41 Apparent fertiliser consumption, 2015-2022 .......................................................... 73
Figure 42 Apparent fertiliser consumption by type in 2022 .................................................... 74
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Figure 43 Tanzania fertiliser usage........................................................................................ 74
Figure 44 Fertiliser estimated demand vs consumption. ....................................................... 74
Figure 45 Government intervention in Fertiliser to increase utilisation. ................................. 75
Figure 46 Tanzania fertiliser production and imports 2020-2022........................................... 76
Figure 47 Tanzania fertiliser production 2019-2022 .............................................................. 76
Figure 48 Current fertiliser production capacity ..................................................................... 76
Figure 49 Current organic fertiliser production capacity ........................................................ 76
Figure 50 Fertiliser exports 2019-2022 .................................................................................. 77
Figure 51: TARI seed production ........................................................................................... 78
Figure 52: Domestic seed demand and supply...................................................................... 78
Figure 53: Approval year of seeds certified for use in 2021................................................... 79
Figure 54: Use of crop protection products in Tanzania, 2021-2023 ..................................... 80
Figure 55 Fungicide and herbicide use in Long Rains 2020 .................................................. 81
Figure 56: Key 2022 export commodities and key destinations............................................. 83
Figure 57: Horticulture exports, 2017-2022 ........................................................................... 83
Figure 58: Cash crop exports, 2017-2022 ............................................................................. 83
Figure 59: Cereal consumption in Tanzania 2020-2022 ........................................................ 85
Figure 60 Trend of children under 5 who are malnourished in Tanzania............................... 86
Figure 61 Regional map showing children who are stunted in Tanzania............................... 86
Figure 62:Tanzania wholesale food prices, 2022-2023 ......................................................... 86
Figure 63: Estimated aquafeed demand ................................................................................ 87
Figure 64: Estimated poultry feed demand ............................................................................ 87
Figure 65: Key 2021 import commodities .............................................................................. 88
Figure 66 Food import bill as a percentage of total import bill, 2015-2020 ............................ 88
Figure 67: Key source countries for Tanzania’s food imports ................................................ 88
Figure 68: Annual regional cereal imports by East African Countries.................................... 89
Figure 69 Tanzania's annual cereal imports .......................................................................... 89
Figure 70: Crops commodity-specific opportunities. .............................................................. 91
Figure 71: Sources of protein consumption in Tanzania and in the world ............................. 92
Figure 72: Cattle Population Reported by Smallholder Farmers by Region in Tanzania as of
1st August 2020 (Source: Agri-Census Report). Only cattle population depicted on map, but
there is heavy overlap between small ruminant population and cattle population ................. 96
Figure 73: Chicken Population Reported by Smallholders by Region in Tanzania as of 1st
August 2020 (Source: Agri-Census Report) .......................................................................... 97
Figure 74: Yields of milk and meat per animal (Source: FAO Stat) ....................................... 98
Figure 75: Breakdown of different types of breeds in cattle and chicken populations ........... 99
Figure 76: Yields across different breeds in beef, dairy, and poultry value chains (Sources:
Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis 2016/2017, The Citisen, MLF, TZ Poultry Value Chain
Analysis; Study of Poultry Subsector in Tanzania (Kingdom of the Netherlands)) ................ 99
Figure 77: Dominant production systems in red meat and dairy value chains (Sources: MoLF
working group) ..................................................................................................................... 100
Figure 78: Dominant production systems in poultry value chain (Sources: MoLF working
group)................................................................................................................................... 101
Figure 79: Estimated supply-demand gap for vaccines, fodder, and poultry feed (sources:
expert interviews, the Citizen, TZ Poultry Value Chain Analysis, Livestock Sector
Transformation Plan 2022/23-2026/27 ) .............................................................................. 103
Figure 80: Dairy and poultry costs of production vs. regional peers (Sources: expert
interviews, Analysis of Marketing Performance of the Dairy Value Chain in Tanga city,
Tanzania, Poultry World, Daily News) ................................................................................. 104
Figure 81: Percentage of processed products in Tanzania vs. Kenya................................. 105

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Figure 82: Production vs. Consumption of meat and dairy, including imports and exports
(Sources: Tanzania Meat Board, Tanzania Dairy Board, OECD Database) ....................... 107
Figure 83: Value chain opportunities across the livestock sector ........................................ 108
Figure 84: Criteria to prioritise livestock commodities.......................................................... 109
Figure 85: Prioritised livestock commodities ........................................................................ 109
Figure 86: Practice of fish farming by region in Tanzania .................................................... 113
Figure 87: Evolution of Tanzania fish production ................................................................. 114
Figure 88: Inland and marine waters fishery and aquaculture production ........................... 115
Figure 89: Sources of post harvest loss in fisheries for sardines from Lake Victoria........... 117
Figure 90: Access to market route for fisheries sector......................................................... 118
Figure 91: Main export routes for fish from Tanzania .......................................................... 119
Figure 92: Total growth of the Agricultural GDP in absolute and relative value as a result of
the AMP ............................................................................................................................... 130
Figure 93: Increase in smallholder income and decrease in people living in poverty as a
result of the AMP ................................................................................................................. 131
Figure 94: Decrease in prevalence of undernourishment as a result of the AMP................ 131
Figure 95: Illustration of the linkage between guiding principles and the design of the AMP
............................................................................................................................................. 194
Figure 96 Highlights the suitability mapping process ........................................................... 328

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List of Abbreviations
African Agriculture and Agro-Industries
3ADI Development Initiative FSDT Financial Sector Deepening Trust
ACP Agricultural Commercial Programme FSMP Fisheries Sector Master Plan
AEZ Agro-ecological zones FTE Full-time equivalent
AFI Agricultural Finance Initiative FYDP Five Year Development Plan
AFSS Agricultural Financial Support Service GAP Good Agricultural Practices
AGCS Agricultural Credit Scheme GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
AgGDP Agricultural GDP GDP Gross Domestic Product
AGRIPOL Agricultural Policy GIS Geographic Information System
AGTIF Agricultural Input Trust Fund Ha Hectares
AI Artificial insemination ICT Information and Communications Technology
AIDA Agricultural Investment Data Analysis IEA International Energy Agency
AJSR Agriculture Joint Sector Review IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development
AMP Agriculture Master Plan IFRPI International Food Policy Research Institute
ASA Agricultural Seed Agency IVS Input Voucher System
Agricultural Sector Development
ASDP Programme KPI Key Performance Indicator
ASDS Agricultural Sector Development Strategy KT Kilo tons
Agriculture Trade Management
ATMIS Information Systems LGA Local Government authority
ATO Agriculture Transformation Office LIMS Land Information Management System
Agricultural Product Development
AVDP programme LMP Livestock Master Plan
BAU Business-as-usual LMU Livestock Multiplication Unit
Building Better Tomorrow for Livestock
BBT-LIFE and Fisheries Entrepreneurs LSP Local service provider
Building Better Tomorrow Youth Initiative
BBT-YIA for Agribusiness LTPP Long Term Perspective Plan
BoT Bank of Tanzania MCC Milk Collection Centre
Comprehensive Africa Agriculture
CAADP Development Programme MCS Monitoring, Control, and Surveillance
CBPP Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia Mha Million hectares
Centre for Coordination of Agricultural
Research and Development for Southern
CCARDESA Africa MoA Ministry of Agriculture
CCPP Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia MoLF Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries
CPP Crop protection products MP Master Plan
CRDB Cooperative Rural Development Bank MPRU Marine Parks and Reserves Unit
DAC Development Assistance Committee MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises
EAC East African Community MT Metric tonnes
EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone MTSP Medium Term Strategic Plan
FADC Food and Agriculture Delivery Council NAIC National Artificial Insemination Centre
FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation NARCO National Ranching Company Limited
FCR Feed conversion ratio NDC Nationally Determined Contributions
FDI Foreign Direct Investment NGO Non-Governmental organisation
Farmer Empowerment through Agricultural Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
FEATI Technology and Information OECD Development
FFYP First Five Year Plan OMDTZ OpenMap Development Tanzania

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OWID Our World in Data
PASS Private Agricultural Sector Support
PDU President's Delivery Unit
PO-RALG President's Office, Regional Administration and Local Government
PPP Public-private partnership
PPR Peste Des Petits Ruminants
PSFS Pathways for Sustainable Food Systems
R&D Research and development
RFCI Rural Finance and Community Infrastructure
RIAPA Rural Investment and Policy Analysis
RMSP Microfinance Support programme
SACCOS Savings and Credit Cooperative Societies
SAGCOT Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania
SCGS Smallholders Credit Guarantee Scheme
SEMA Smallholder Entrepreneurship and Market Development
SHF Smallholder farmer
SIDO Small Industry Development Organisation
SME Small and medium-sized enterprise
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
TADB Tanzania Agricultural Development Bank
TAFICO Tanzania Fisheries Company
TAFIRI Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute
TAFSIP Tanzania Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plan
TAHA Tanzania Horticultural Association
TAIDF Tanzania Agro-industries Development Flagship
TALIRI Tanzania Livestock Research Institute
TANU Tanganyika African National Union
TARI Tanzania Agriculture Research Institute
TARIC TAHA Research and Information Resource Centre
TCCIA Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture
TCDC Tanzania Cooperative Development Commission
TDV Tanzania Development Vision
TLRI Tanzania Livestock Research Institute
TMX Tanzania Mercantile Exchange
TZ Tanzania
TZS Tanzanian Shilling
USAID US Agency for International Development
VAT Value-added tax
VLUP Village Land Use Plan
WTO World Trade Organisation
ZPDB Zanzibar's Presidential Delivery Bureau

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 1. Executive summary
This document sets out a guiding roadmap for food systems transformation in Tanzania. It
builds on learnings from previous sectoral plans and the Agricultural Sector Development
Programme II Mid-Term Review (ASDPII MTR). It lays out a 2050 vision for the food system
and a shorter-term plan until 2030. At the time of publication (March 2024), its technical
elements have been completed, including a detailed implementation plan. Future steps include
confirmation of governance arrangements, budget financing, and setting out in detail short-
term local implementation plans working together with local government authorities (LGAs)
and others.

Tanzania is aiming to reach upper middle-income status by 2050, in line with its Vision
2050. Achieving this ambitious vision requires a fourfold increase in gross national income
(GNI) per capita by 2050, or in other words, an average of 8% annual growth across the entire
economy for 25 years. Such growth rates are ambitious but not unprecedented. Other
countries have achieved whole-economy transformations in the past. This prosperity depends,
however, on significant improvements in food systems and in the productive agricultural sector
in particular – that is to say, crops, livestock and fisheries. For not only is the agricultural sector
one of the largest contributors to GDP (28%) and largest employer (65%) in Tanzania (in 2022),
it is also a critical enabler for the rest of the economy. Agricultural transformation, impacting
entire food systems, is a critical driver of inclusive economic growth. It leads to overall
increases in GDP, reduces poverty, safeguards sustainable and resilient food systems, and
frees up workforce from the agricultural sector.

A detailed diagnostic reveals that even though progress has been made in recent years,
the agricultural sector is still at a very early stage in its transformation. This is true in
terms of key commodity productivity (e.g., for maize, wheat, paddy, and banana it is ~3x lower
than Tanzania’s best performing peers in East Africa) and it is true in terms of limited added
value (i.e., less than 5% of fruits and vegetables, red meat and dairy are processed). This is
limiting the growth of the sector. Among other, these inefficiencies are due to low usage of
quality inputs, restricted market access, limited processing capabilities, inadequate
mechanisation, constrained access to financial resources, infrastructural deficiencies, and
limited commercialisation. Nevertheless, the country has significant potential. Tanzania is well
placed to play a key role in global and regional trade. It has land available for growing crops
and raising livestock and fish. Additionally, its land and waters are well suited for reaching best-
in-class productivity for priority commodities.

An ambitious 2050 vision for the food system has been developed via an iterative and
consultative approach rooted in the diagnostic and lessons learned from previous
transformations. Challenges and opportunities were identified using this detailed diagnostic
as well as reviewing prior and current strategies applied in Tanzania (e.g., MTR of ASDP II),
cases of international agricultural transformations, and key trends impacting the sector (notably
climate change and nutrition). These challenges and opportunities were used as input to
develop the vision, along with national priorities, input from stakeholders across the public,
private and social sector, and a robust macro-economic model. The resulting agriculture vision
for 2050 outlined in this document is one that is both ambitious and achievable and which can
lead to a holistic transformation of the food systems, establishing agriculture as a key pillar of
Tanzania’s overall development. This AMP vision, which also touches on the food system, can
serve as a key input to a broader Vision 2050 for Tanzania:

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 By 2050, Tanzania's agricultural sector will be a driving force of economic prosperity
with agricultural GDP quintupling to $100 billion (~280 trillion TZS), as a result of
decades of unprecedented growth. At the heart of this vision is a commitment to at least
triple productivity of key commodities in a resilient and sustainable way ensuring
that every Tanzanian enjoys security of nutritious high-quality food, making
hunger a thing of the past. This leap forward will fuel rural development as increased
productivity and access to markets will double smallholder income and eradicate
extreme poverty. Simultaneously, a surge in agribusiness will increase large-scale
production and increase food processing fivefold, creating millions of well-paid
jobs, all the while placing women and young people at the heart of this transformation.
This growth in production and processing will steer the country towards becoming a
breadbasket of the region and a powerhouse in the global export market, making over
US$20 (~55 trillion TZS) billion in agriculture exports.

It is clear from the outcomes above mentioned, that the agricultural sector will be a
driving force to reach upper-middle income status by 2050. These outcomes, and the
critical role of the sector on the broader economy has been modelled using a robust dynamic
economywide model called Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA). The model tracks
how various interventions will impact the agrifood system and how these changes affect
household and individual level outcomes, such as incomes, poverty, and undernourishment.
The model also enables to show the impact of implementing the AMP compared to a “business-
as-usual”.

To complement this 2050 vision, a mid-term ambition has been set for 2030 to achieve
the first stage of the agriculture transformation:

• Reach 10% annual growth rates in the agricultural sector by 2030

• Enhance productivity of key commodities by >50% in a sustainable and resilient way
• Increase smallholder income by >25% (to approximately 4 million TZS)
• Promote the development of medium and large-scale commercial entities across the
value chain and increase agri-processing to US$3 billion (~8 trillion TZS)
• Reach US$6 billion (~16 trillion TZS) in net exports

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To achieve these ambitions, 15 flagships have been designed and 20 commodities
prioritised. These flagships are ambitious development projects. Each can be catalytic in
achieving the priority areas of the Agriculture Master Plan, and each addresses critical
bottlenecks across the value chain. Together, they can enable the growth of priority
commodities while ensuring equal access to these opportunities for men, women, and youth.
Each of these commodities has been selected for having high impact, supporting a market-
centric approach and being consistent with a shift to higher-value commodities (including for
export). Prioritisation was based on share of agricultural GDP, growth potential, contribution to
nutritious diets and food security, resilience/adaptation potential, and relevance to
smallholders. An overview of the priority commodities and the flagships designed around them
is set out below.

Implementing the flagships has an estimated cost for Government of US$5.5 billion (~15
trillion TZS) between 2024-2030 and will increase GDP by US$20 billion (~55 trillion TZS)
of which US$13 billion (~35 trillion TZS) comprises agricultural GDP and US$7 billion
(~20 trillion TZS) is spread across the wider economy. Successfully implementing the
Agriculture Master Plan (AMP) will lead to widespread benefits across society that go beyond
GDP growth. Average smallholder income will increase by >25% and lead to 7 million fewer
people living in poverty (using the World Bank’s international poverty line). Increased incomes
and higher food production will reduce the share of the population who are undernourished
from 25% to 15%. Finally, workforce composition will start to change as the share of people
working in agriculture drops from 65% to 60%. The overall impact of the AMP’s implementation
is shown on the next page, highlighting the differences from maintaining a business-as-usual
scenario.

Learning from the experience of applying previous sectoral strategies in Tanzania and
from international cases of agricultural transformations, successful implementation of
the AMP is founded on strong delivery mechanisms, dedicated governance, and
adequate financing mechanisms. An Agriculture Transformation Office (ATO) has been set
up to drive the plan's execution and support implementation. The ATO will also play a key role
in designing governance for the AMP, to coordinate the plan between Ministries and to
coordinate implementation on the ground with the local government authorities. Finally, the
ATO will also play a key role in supporting the translation of this plan into annual budgets. This
should be done considering appropriate financing mechanisms and ensuring continuity with
programmes funded under previous strategies. Ensuring the AMP is well supported and fully
embedded within Government will secure the successful transformation of the sector,
benefiting millions of smallholders and contributing to a more prosperous Tanzania.

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 2. The Agriculture Master Plan: a pillar to
transform the agricultural sector
A. Agricultural transformation as a driver of economic prosperity
Tanzania’s ambition, as set out in its Vision 2050, is to reach upper middle-income
status by that date. Tanzania achieved lower middle-income status in 2021. Making the
transition to upper middle-income status will require significant growth. Gross National Income
(GNI) per capita, $1,120 in 2021, will have to quadruple to $4,256. After taking population
growth into account, the ambition implies GDP would have to grow by ~8% each year from
now until 2050. Maintaining this rate of growth consistently over 25 years will require a
transformation of the economy. Developing agriculture is a critical first step.

Transforming the agricultural sector is a prerequisite for broader economic prosperity.

Agriculture is one of the largest contributors to GDP (28%) and employment (65%) and
serves as a critical enabler for the rest of the economy. Agricultural transformation will be
a critical driver of economic growth as it will lead to an overall increase in GDP, reduce poverty,
safeguard sustainable and resilient food systems, and free up workforce capacity.

Agricultural transformation is a comprehensive and deliberate process encompassing

strategic changes, innovations, and reforms within the agricultural sector with the aim of
achieving sustainable and inclusive growth. It involves the adoption of modern technologies,
improved farming practices, and systemic changes across various elements of the
agricultural value chain including production, processing, distribution, and marketing.
Agricultural transformation is designed to enhance productivity, increase efficiency, promote
sustainability, improve resilience to challenges such as climate change, alleviate poverty,
increase gender equality and contribute to broader economic development through
innovation, investment, and policy reforms. As it proceeds, this transformation will free up
some of the agricultural workforce to meet demand from other economic sectors.

Agricultural transformation can lead to important outcomes:

• Increasing GDP: productivity gains drive increases in agricultural production which not
only directly adds to GDP, but also contributes to the growth of other sectors via a multiplier
effect. The agricultural sector is a direct consumer of other sectors (e.g., inputs, building,
and power) and drives downstream activity (e.g., intranational logistics and exports).
Additionally, increases in smallholders’ disposable incomes and investments in
infrastructure contribute to activity in the rest of the economy

• Reducing poverty: rural incomes and living standards increase with access to inputs such
as modern technologies, improved practices, better market access and greater added value,
diversification, knowledge and training, agribusiness opportunities, and finance. Such
financial empowerment can ripple through local economies, fostering growth in markets,
services, and infrastructure development and supporting rural development

• Ensuring resilient food security: gains in productivity enable a country to meet domestic
food demand while creating surpluses for exports. This generates income and strengthens
the country's position in the global food market. Diversification of the sector, with integration
of women in food systems, generates more nutritious food and resilient practices (e.g.,

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 agroforestry, better quality input, and enhanced data access) help counter weather yield
volatility. These resilient, climate-smart practices also help preserve natural habitat

• Ensuring sustainability: climate- and nature-smart practices help preserve natural

resources and biodiversity, improve soil health, increase long-term productivity and reduce
agriculture’s carbon footprint

• Freeing up the workforce: improvements in farming techniques, mechanisation, and

infrastructures translate to higher yields, releasing some of the agricultural workforce to
engage in other sectors, contributing to overall economic growth and further diversification,
particularly for women. Equalising women’s access to agricultural inputs, including time-
saving equipment, and increasing the return to these inputs is critical to close gender gaps
in agricultural productivity and allow for an equal share of the workforce to be freed up for
other activities

Transforming agriculture to capture these outcomes is a multi-year process with

multiple stages. Many countries (e.g., Ethiopia, Vietnam, and Brazil) have successfully
transformed their agricultural sector by addressing challenges similar to those of Tanzania.
Although each journey is uniquely shaped by historical and geographical context, typically
there are four phases in each transformation. These are expansion/commercialisation,
industrialisation, structural transformation, and maturation. They are shown in the graph below.

Figure 1: The four stages of agricultural transformation with illustrative AgGDP growth

• A. Expansion and commercialisation: a productivity shock increases agricultural

productivity creating surplus outputs. There is a shift to higher value commodities and
accompanying investment in processing and marketing infrastructure. Rural labour
shifts up and down the value chain

• B. Industrialisation: farming becomes more capital-intensive; value added by

agribusiness and agro-processing grows. The rural sector expands into peripheral
industries and enables new businesses (e.g., financial industries and insurance). Rural
households shift toward less agriculturally-based income and to more off-farm work

• C. Structural transformation: as the agricultural sector becomes more efficient and

other economic sectors grow, there is a gradual decline in the percentage of agricultural

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 GDP and a shift of labour away from agriculture and the food sector. Urbanisation
typically accompanies this structural transformation

• D. Maturation: the agricultural sector is no longer a growth sector but rather one of a
number of mature industries within the economy. Rural household income from farming
shows limited growth, urbanisation rates have matured and typically the proportion of
household expenditure accounted for by food is low

A detailed sectoral diagnostic indicates Tanzania is currently in Stage A (expansion and

commercialisation) of its agricultural transformation. It has significant potential to increase
its production but is still limited by critical bottlenecks throughout the value chain. These include
but are not limited to low use of quality inputs, restricted market access, limited processing
capabilities, inadequate mechanisation, constrained access to financial resources,
infrastructural deficiencies, and limited commercialisation. These challenges have started to
be addressed. Making good progress by 2030 would move the transformation to its second
stage of industrialisation. Further ahead, these projections suggest Tanzania could start its
structural transformation by 2040 and its agricultural sector would start its maturation phase
by 2050.

Many countries have successfully undertaken this journey. Although their transformations
have taken place against varying contexts, a number of factors are consistently associated
with success. Notably these include independent private sector, integration, inclusivity, and
sustainability:

• A flourishing independent private sector that can prosper without continuous

investment from Government or donors with rural change agents (e.g., extension
workers) to drive growth. For example, Kenya’s agricultural transformation has been
supported by a business environment conducive to the private sector: the horticulture
sector is dominated by the private sector, the country has been successful in attracting
FDI to agriculture, and Kenya is ranked third in Africa in terms of ease of doing
business1

• An agricultural sector that is integrated within the economy. Structural

transformations lead to the growth of other industries that can assimilate labour flowing
out of the agricultural sector

• Growth is inclusive and characterised by robust rural development, demand and

income levels. In Morocco, for example, rural poverty has been addressed by
cultivating high-value crops by smallholders with irrigated systems that can be sold into
local, regional and European markets. The result was a dramatic increase in both land
productivity (up 30%) and rural incomes. Inclusivity also includes ensuring that human
capital is developed across the wide range of stakeholders in the sector

• Transformations are sustainable, reflecting growing concerns globally about climate-

smart agriculture, biodiversity, nutrition, deforestation, and gender inclusivity

Overall, these transformations have been guided by a comprehensive strategy and

delivery mechanism that supports alignment of the entire sector. In Ethiopia, for example, the
Agriculture Transformation Agency provided a backbone for implementation. In the same spirit,

1
World Bank, Doing Business 2019, p.5

20
this document is intended to provide a clear implementation roadmap for the first stage of the
transformation and a catalysing vision for 2050. In turn, this plan will be supported by the newly-
designed Agriculture Transformation Office (ATO).

See Annex A for examples of successful agricultural transformation from around the world.
Unsuccessful transformations have also been investigated to ensure pitfalls and mistakes
would be avoided in this AMP.

B. The design of the Agriculture Master Plan (AMP)

The Agriculture Master Plan (AMP) is designed to guide the sector through a full
transformation, serving as the backbone of a wider economic transformation by 2050,
and setting out a concrete action plan for implementation in the medium term (to 2030).
The AMP’s roadmap builds on previous strategies and brings together stakeholders from
across the agricultural ecosystem. It is intended to contribute to the emergence of a thriving
and sustainable agricultural sector.

Iterative process of the AMP

The AMP was developed iteratively with multiple stakeholders in three broad steps. The
process is summarised in the figure below.

Figure 2: The iterative development process of the AMP

Step 1: Set the targets and run the initial country diagnostic

It is vital first to align on the approach and guiding principles to be used in the design
of the AMP. It will reflect best practices identified for similar exercises, as well as discussions
with key stakeholders about their priorities and aspirations for the future of the agricultural
sector.

Next, the Government’s ambitions for 2030 and 2050 must be translated into ambitious
but achievable targets that map onto transformation pillars. To streamline the work of the
Government it is also important to align with other ongoing exercises – in this case, that
includes the work of the Planning Commission in developing a broad 2050 vision for the
country.
21
Once these targets have been set, a diagnostic of the sector to understand the current
state of agriculture in Tanzania can in turn identify the main challenges, biggest
opportunities, and key commodities. Such a diagnostic comprises a review of the historical
context of the agricultural sector and analysing historical and current guiding documents to
capture learnings from their successes and failures. The process continues with the
assessment of a wider range of documents (e.g., national agricultural sector reviews, regional
reports, and agricultural research publications), engagement with stakeholders (e.g.,
cooperatives, producer associations, and NGOs), and analysis of data sources (e.g., national
accounts data, data from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and material
from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)). The combination of these activities
provides a comprehensive perspective of the situation and challenges of the sector across
value chains and commodities. From these challenges, multiple opportunities emerge which
can be prioritised based on their impact and feasibility. Finally, 20 high-impact commodities
have been prioritised based on their share of agricultural GDP, growth potential, contribution
to nutritious diets and food security, resilience/adaptation potential, and relevance to
smallholders (in terms both of income and inclusion potential).

Step 2: Flagships to enable key commodities to develop

The second step builds on the diagnosis by identifying key flagships which can enable
growth in the cultivation of the 20 prioritised commodities. These flagships are in turn
mapped against the transformation pillars of the AMP. These flagships are selected based on
the opportunities identified in the diagnostic. It is critical, however, to prioritise these
opportunities to identify the flagships which are most critical to transform the sector. Experience
in other countries shows that without proper prioritisation, resources are spread too thin,
limiting the overall impact of the transformation. The same rational was used to justify
prioritising 20 out of the 150+ commodities of the country.

Flagships are ambitious development projects that can catalyse the achievement of priority
areas in the Agriculture Master Plan. They have a lifetime of at least five years and comprise
multiple initiatives. Flagships are designed to unlock large opportunities by resolving specific
issues across the value chain, enabling commodities to grow and thus yield value.

Once flagships are identified, they are attributed yearly KPIs, funding sources, clear
responsibilities, and targeted regions. They are explicitly linked to the prioritised
commodities. This is done by building on existing case examples from both Tanzania and
beyond, complemented by critical experience from stakeholders on the ground to clarify what
initiatives are needed for successful implementation. The cost of these initiatives is then
assessed to help calculate and prioritise the impact based on cost effectiveness as well as to
identify the sources of funding. Flagships are then linked to prioritised commodities to ensure
these efforts focus on the commodities with the highest potential and that progress in the
pursuit of these priorities is unlocked by resolving key bottlenecks from farm to fork. Linking
flagships to commodities adds a region-specific lens to the initiatives. It is important to note
that commodities other than those in the priority list will still be supported indirectly through the
development of the flagships, but will not be subject to the same level of focus as the prioritised
ones.

Flagship impact is assessed to ensure that collectively they achieve the desired
outcome while staying within budget. This is done using the Rural Investment and Policy
Analysis (RIAPA) model and Agricultural Investment Data Analysis (AIDA). RIAPA is a forward-

22
looking framework which captures activity across the entire economy and unpacks the agri-
food system by tracking how policies, investments, and climate risks affect different sectors,
workers, and population groups. AIDA projects public investment impact across the agrifood
system and tracks both systemwide investments and the targeting of specific value chains. By
combining both models it is possible to take account of both impact at commodity level and
across the broader economy and population. These flagships may thus be assessed in terms
of Tanzania’s broader development goals.

Finally, an advanced geospatial model is used to assess the potential of certain

prioritised commodities. This includes a detailed suitability analysis to understand where
crops are currently being grown and where they could potentially be expanded to. Critical in
this analysis is ensuring that potential land expansion is done in a sustainable way without
deforestation or loss of biodiversity.

Step 3: Implementation modalities

In developing the Master Plan, it is critical to ensure that it is supported by a relevant

and supportive transformation governance with an Agriculture Transformation Office
(ATO) at its heart. The ATO’s role is to support and oversee the implementation of the Master
Plan. It is responsible for facilitating coordination and harmonious collaboration between
Ministries and other stakeholders. In addition, the ATO is also tasked with supporting both
Ministries in designing detailed governance and making links to budgets and adequate
financing mechanisms. The provision of adequate coordination mechanisms with the LGAs
and the key ministries is vital.

Finally, it is critical to ensure that the AMP fits within the local and international
commitments made by Tanzania to align implementation of these commitments. In
particular, ensuring the AMP sets Tanzania up for success to deliver on its climate and CAAPD
commitments is critical for the AMP to sit within the broader food systems reflections.

Collaborative nature of the AMP

The AMP was developed in consultation with, and with the input of, a wide range of
stakeholders and resources, including government, private sector, civil society, development
partners, and research institutions. The figure below sets out the stakeholders and data
sources involved in the design of the AMP.

23
 Figure 3: Reports, stakeholders, organisations, experts consulted in the AMP development process

Guiding principles of the AMP

The guiding principles of the AMP are central to its design. The Master Plan follows ten
guiding principles to achieve its ambition and targets. These inform the approach taken
throughout the development process, particularly in designing the flagships and prioritising the
commodities.

Principle 1 — High impact and demand-driven: the AMP emphasises a demand-driven

strategy, prioritising commodities and agro-processing based on comprehensive assessments
of existing and future market demand. Through rigorous market analysis, it identifies products
or services with high demand or potential for increased demand. Simultaneously, the AMP
adopts a high impact approach, strategically prioritising interventions within specific
commodities and regions to unlock substantial transformations. By aligning production with
market needs and concentrating efforts where the potential for significant impact is highest,
the AMP aims to drive rapid, scalable, and sustainable advancements within the agricultural
sector.

Principle 2 — Implementation-focused: the AMP is designed around strategic actionable

initiatives, known as flagships, which serve as focal points for targeted interventions within the
agricultural sector. These are comprehensive and high-impact programmes strategically aimed
24
at addressing critical challenges for prioritised commodities. By concentrating efforts on
projects that can yield rapid and tangible results within a concise timeframe, the AMP aims to
demonstrate immediate progress, foster momentum, and drive significant advancements
across the agricultural landscape. The implementation of the AMP is supported by the ATO, in
turn itself a critical component of success.

Principle 3 — Market-led: recognising the critical role of the markets and the private sector in
driving economic growth and innovation, the AMP assumes market realities inform decisions
and that private enterprises are actively engaged and involved. This principle aims to create
an enabling environment that fosters entrepreneurship, innovation, and investment within the
agricultural sector. It emphasises collaboration with private entities, encourages partnerships
and knowledge sharing, and seeks to draw on the expertise and resources of private
businesses to drive sustainable growth and development.

Principle 4 — Inclusion: the AMP prioritises addressing gender disparities and places
emphasis on integrating women and young people into the core of its approach to ensure that
initiatives and strategies are inclusive and considerate of the needs, opportunities, and
contributions of both women and young individuals. By integrating these groups, the AMP is
intended to achieve a more equitable and prosperous agricultural sector.

Principle 5 — Collaborative approach: this principle emphasises the importance of

collaboration and coordination between all key stakeholders across the agricultural value
chain. The AMP promotes the establishment of a healthy network where various entities
including development partners, farmer associations, women and youth networks,
Government bodies, and the private sector work collectively. The AMP recognises that
different stakeholders have different roles and responsibilities in the transformation and aims
to clarify these for better outcomes.

Principle 6 — Resilience and sustainability: the AMP places a strong emphasis on

developing resilient and sustainable food systems. This requires strategies for building
resilience against climate change impacts, market volatility, and geopolitical factors. The AMP
also advocates for sustainable agricultural practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
conserve natural resources, reduce environmental degradation, and ensure long-term food
security while addressing challenges posed by various disruptions.

Principle 7 — Better nutrition: recognising the importance of nutrition and health, the AMP
integrates these aspects as key components in its initiatives and prioritisation of commodities.
The AMP prioritises actions that lead to improved dietary patterns and better nutritional
outcomes across the country.

Principle 8 — Based on Tanzania’s strengths: this principle emphasises identifying and

harnessing the country's unique resources, capabilities, and favourable conditions for
agricultural development. By capitalising on these strengths, the AMP can maximise the
potential for an agricultural transformation that is tailored to Tanzania's specific context and
potential.

Principle 9 — Replicating proven models: rather than reinventing the wheel, the plan focuses
on identifying, learning from, and replicating successful models and practices that have proven
effective within Tanzania and globally. This approach optimises resource utilisation and
accelerates progress by implementing strategies with proven track records of success. This
also includes avoiding pitfalls and blind spots from past experiences.

25
Principle 10 — Organisational sustainability: the AMP embeds organisational sustainability
in its design and governance to ensure that it becomes integrated in Government activity and
its sustained impact is better guaranteed. Moreover, the existence of a stable organisational
structure for the implementation of the AMP (in the form of the ATO) supports governance as
well as capability building required to achieve the AMP. It contains annual targets and clear
financing needs to ensure continuity and accountability.

C. Vision 2050
Vision 2050 represents Tanzania’s transition to becoming an upper middle-income
country and the role of the agricultural sector to support this. It sets out the current state
of the agricultural sector, its potential and the results of discussion with national leaders. These
are complemented by detailed modelling and analysis to ensure the vision is grounded in
grounded in analytical rigor. The next page summarises Vision 2050, establishing agriculture
as playing a central role in Tanzania achieving its ambition.

26
27
The transformation will be supported at each stage by a set of enablers. At each stage of
the transformation, a differentiated approach will be needed to achieve Vision 2050. The five
pillars of Vision 2050 (a productive, sustainable and resilient food system, empowered
smallholders, a robust agri-enterprise ecosystem, regional and global leadership, and a best-
in-class enabling environment) will involve different enablers at each of the four stages of
transformation. The figures below indicate these enablers across the Vision’s pillars in each of
the first three stages of agricultural transformation up until 2050.

Figure 4: : Key enablers of agricultural Vision 2050, 2024-30

28
Figure 5: Key enablers of agricultural Vision 2050, 2031-40

29
 Figure 6: Key enablers of agricultural Vision 2050, 2041-50

D. 2030 Ambitions
In order to achieve Vision 2050, it is critical to set out well-defined ambitions for 2030 to
achieve the first stage of Tanzania’s agricultural transformation – that of agricultural
expansion and commercialisation. The pathway for this is set out in greater detail in the flagship
and commodity section, but the ambition is outlined below.

Reaching an agricultural GDP growth rate of 10% by 2030 will be essential if the sector
is to act as the backbone of the economy. This growth is, however, not sustainable in the
long run without channelling a disproportionate share of Government spending to the sector.
This would not yield the highest cost-benefit ratio. After a period of rapid growth, then, it is
expected that sectoral growth will slowly decline and that its share of the total GDP will go
down.

30
31
32
 3. The state of the agricultural sector in
Tanzania
A. Current and historical context of the agricultural sector in Tanzania
Current context

The agricultural sector is the cornerstone of Tanzania's economy but is beset by

numerous challenges. Agriculture in Tanzania is one of the largest contributors to GDP and
the country’s largest employer. In 2021 it accounted for a 28% share of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and employed approximately 64% of the workforce.2,3 It is also the most land-
intensive sector of the economy, accounting for 40% of total land area. The sector grew by
32% between 2015 and 2021 and is currently growing at an annual rate of around 4%. While
current growth lags behind the Government’s target, there is potential for significantly
enhanced growth in the years to 2030 if a number of critical challenges can be addressed.
These include restricted market access, limited processing capabilities, inadequate
mechanisation, constrained access to financial resources, infrastructural deficiencies, and
limited commercialisation. In particular, female smallholders enjoy lower rates of agricultural
productivity because they are subject to inequitable access to agricultural inputs including
family labour, high-yield crops, pesticides, and fertiliser. All of this results among others in
Tanzania’s productivity being lower than that of its peers (e.g., maize, wheat, sorghum, and
paddy have yields ~3x less than the best in East Africa).4 However, there are promising
opportunities to be harnessed and upon which Tanzania can capitalise.

The agricultural landscape in Tanzania is predominantly dominated by smallholders.

They contribute between 70% and 95% of the total production across crops, livestock
and fisheries. These smallholders, who typically work on farms of 0.9 to 3 hectares, raise their
animals as nomads or catch fish in lakes and oceans typically have low productivity. Such
smallholders are usually active in at least two of these subsectors. Crops represent the largest
subsector, contributing 65% of total agricultural GDP. This is followed by livestock (28%) and
fisheries (7%). Crops encompass a diverse array of produce and include staple food crops.
The principal ones are cassava (7.2m MT in 2021/22), maize (6.4m MT), banana (5.2m MT),
and paddy (1.7m MT) and are grown alongside cash crops that include sugar (379k MT),
cashew nuts (240k MT), and cotton (145k MT). Livestock products include predominantly beef,
dairy, poultry, and the meat of goats, sheep, and pigs. The fisheries sector predominantly
comprises capture fisheries in both rivers and the ocean (96% of production), as well as an
increasing share of aquaculture. A breakdown of the agricultural GDP by subsector is shown
on Figure 7.

2
JICA
3
World Bank
4
FAO

33
 Figure 7: Breakdown of agricultural GDP by subsectors and commodity

Since independence, Tanzania’s successive Governments have made substantial

commitments to develop the sector through various programmes and initiatives.
Recognising the agricultural sector’s challenges and opportunities, these strategies have
aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity, promoting market-oriented practices, accelerating
the commercialisation of agriculture, ensuring food security, attracting private sector capital,
and fortifying institutional frameworks. Taken together, these initiatives have led to measurable
improvements in various agricultural metrics over time. Building on this progress, the
Government recently increased its agricultural budget allocation from $127 million in fiscal year
2021/22 to $412 million in 2022/23. These investments have been directed towards critical
areas such as irrigation and mechanisation, input enhancement, added value processes, and
the creation of avenues specifically tailored for the empowerment of women and young people.
This forward-looking approach seeks to harness the untapped potential within the sector and
foster its transformative growth.

Past initiatives have contributed to the evolution of key agricultural metrics,

showcasing advancements in parameters such as crop yields, livestock production,
fisheries output, land under cultivation, and other pertinent indicators. These improvements
signify the cumulative effects of past strategies and interventions, illustrating progress in
agricultural development within Tanzania.

34
 Figure 8: Agricultural output*, 1960-2020 (bn 2015 Figure 9: Arable land, 1960-2021 (mn ha) (FAO)
USD) (OWID)

Figure 10: GDP from agriculture, forestry and fishing, Figure 11: Export of crops and livestock products**,
2012-22 (tn 2015 TZS) (IFPRI) 1961-2021 (bn USD) (FAO)

Figure 12: Prevalence of undernourishment, 2001-21

(%, 3-year average) (FAO)

*Fisheries sub-sector (not included) is responsible for 6% of Ag GDP

**90% of fisheries output is consumed locally

Historical context

Understanding the experience of the past six decades is important if critical learnings
are to be included in the formulation of the AMP. Analysing the successes, challenges, and
lessons learned from the implementation of these strategies provides invaluable insights
essential for designing an effective and responsive framework for the future. Drawing on these
insights can ensure the forthcoming AMP is better equipped to address contemporary
challenges, capitalise on emerging opportunities, and effectively steer Tanzania's agricultural
sector towards sustainable growth and development. While the Government continues to build
on past strategies (e.g., through current commitments to open up the sector to private
investment, invest in large-scale bloc farming, and promote mechanisation), it also recognises
the need to harmonise them into one document. This consolidation of transformational efforts

35
will ensure clarity for all stakeholders regarding the purpose, targets, and flagships for the
sector moving forward.

Figure 13: Tanzania’s key agriculture-related strategies

The 60s and 70s: From colonial capitalism to socialist ideals to modernisation

With independence, the agricultural landscape shifted from a colonial system to one
focused on local empowerment. Julius Nyerere's socialist-oriented TANU Ujamaa (Swahili
for familyhood, communal living’) pamphlet in 1962 was intended to empower local
smallholders and reduce reliance on foreign-owned farms. This period witnessed the departure
of foreign-owned settler farms, leaving vast agricultural lands abandoned. The early post-
independence agricultural policy aimed to improve and transform the sector, emphasising
cooperative expansion, extension services, and community development.

The dominant transformation approach was reflected in the First Five Year Plan (1964-69),
which focused on villagisation and river basins. The 1967 Arusha Declaration emphasised self-
reliance and equality, leading to nationalisation efforts and the promotion of ujamaa villages
(by 1976, 13 million were living in villages).5 During this period there was a focus on technical
agricultural methods, as evidenced in the policy statement Siasi Ni Kilimo (‘politics is
agriculture’) and large-scale projects. Alongside ujamaa villages, state-operated farms
(through entities such as NAFCO in cereals, the Sugar and Ranching Corporations, and the
Dairy Farming Company) were seen as pivotal in bolstering agricultural production.6

However, the new system faced significant challenges. There were inefficiencies in
cooperatives, limited adoption of extension services, and resistance to community
development initiatives. Villagisation had limitations and in some cases was discontinued.
However, agricultural production continued to grow, in part due to the ethos of ‘Uhuru na Kazi’
(freedom and work) championed by Nyerere.

5
‘Agricultural Policy, 1961–1967’ in Tanzania: A Political Economy, Andrew Coulson, Oxford
University Press, 2013
6
‘Agricultural policies in Mainland Tanzania’, Andrew Coulson, Review of African Political Economy,
1977

36
These early attempts at agricultural transformation highlighted the importance of
cooperatives, extension, and community engagement. Lessons include:

• Revitalise the cooperative system: address its inefficiencies by introducing better

management practices, enhancing operational efficiency, and providing more targeted
support for smallholder farmers to ensure wider benefits

• Strengthen extension services: overcome resistance and increase the adoption of

extension services by tailoring information dissemination to local needs and integrating
indigenous knowledge into modern agricultural practices

• Engage the community: revisit community development initiatives with a more

participatory approach, respecting local customs, and involving communities in
decision-making processes to ensure acceptance and effectiveness of the
programmes

• Evaluate and reform settlement schemes: assess the limitations and challenges faced
by settlement schemes like villagisation, considering local feedback, and making
necessary revisions to ensure their viability and success

• Support smallholder farmers: prioritise support for smallholder farmers by providing

access to credit facilities, technological advances, and necessary resources to
enhance their productivity and sustainability

The 1980s and 1990s: Market liberalisation, export agriculture, diversification, and
industrialisation

From its earlier focus on smallholders, the next stage of Tanzania’s agricultural
transformation was characterised by the introduction of market liberalisation and
whole-sector plans. The 1980s saw the inception of AGRIPOL, a pivotal agricultural policy
designed to revive economic growth. Departing from ujamaa, it emphasised secure land
access and supported commercial farming (i.e., export-oriented crops, and raw materials for
industry) as part of a broader shift towards market liberalisation. Despite initial challenges,
further policy reforms in the 1980s and 1990s transitioned Tanzania's agriculture towards
export-oriented practices. For example, non-traditional export crops were liberalised in 1986,
food crops in 1989, and traditional export crops in 1993.7 This continued opening up of the
agricultural sector through liberalisation policies was part of a wider plan to transform
Tanzania’s economy overall. This was Development Vision 2025 (1995-2025), which outlined
the country’s overall development aspirations and has guided development efforts to 2025 to
reach middle-income status.8 It was critical, however, to ensure that in implementing these
policies of liberalisation smallholders were supported and that no-one was left behind.

Key lessons from this period include the importance of market-oriented agriculture and
engaging the private sector.

7
Tanzania – Agricultural Sector Risk Assessment, Carlos Acre and Jorge Caballero, World Bank,
June 2015
8
Tanzania Development Vision 2025

37
 • Secure land access: continue ensuring secure long-term access to land for farmers to
promote private enterprise and commercial farming

• Promote market-oriented agriculture: foster a conducive environment for export-

oriented agriculture by supporting the cultivation of both export and domestic essential
crops

• Push for adaptation and resilience: address adjustment difficulties and market
dynamics while maintaining commitment to market-oriented agricultural practices

• Conduct policy reform: continue developing policies that align with the country's
development vision, promoting a shift toward a diversified, semi-industrialised economy
by taking advantage of agricultural potential

• Engage the private sector: encourage public/private dialogue and partnerships to

enhance modernisation efforts, improve infrastructure, and promote technological
advancements in agriculture

The 2000s: Agricultural commercialisation and sector development

The 2001 Agricultural Sector Development Strategy set the stage more broadly for
agricultural transformation, leading to the Agriculture Sector Development Plan I (ASDP I)
for the period from 2006 to 2015. ASDP I was Tanzania's first sector-wide agricultural
programme, focusing on improving productivity, infrastructure, knowledge access, and
technology use, achieving milestones in irrigation, market infrastructure, and food self-
sufficiency. The key achievements of ASDP I included improvements in human and physical
capacity at district, regional, and national levels; agriculture research services; support for
agricultural input use (e.g., area under cultivation increased by 148%); irrigation schemes
(irrigated areas increased from 264k to 461k ha between 2006 and 2014); marketing
infrastructure for commodity added value (e.g., warehouses and crop markets); food self-
sufficiency (the ratio increased from 103% to 123% between 2009 and 2016) and food price
inflation (falling from 7.0% to 4.5% between 2006 and 2016). All of this was underpinned by
bottom-up planning, with 75% of budget spent at local Government level.9 ASDP I set the stage
for Agriculture First (‘Kilimo Kwanza’) from 2009 to 2015. Agriculture First was intended to
boost agricultural sector GDP by 10%. This strategy prioritised public/private dialogue, policy
reforms, infrastructure development, and technology promotion to modernise agriculture. A
critical element in this strategy was the provision of funding through a basket fund.

Key lessons from these plans included:

• Ensure sustainable commercialisation: continue – and expand – efforts to enhance

agricultural commercialisation to increase farm incomes and reduce rural poverty,
focusing on sustainability and long-term benefits

• Strengthen institutional framework: further strengthen the institutional framework for

agriculture, clarifying public and private sector roles to foster a favourable environment
for commercial activities

9
Agricultural Sector Development Programme II website ([Link]

38
 • Promote access to agricultural knowledge and technology: enhance access to
agricultural knowledge, technologies, and marketing systems for farmers to improve
productivity and profitability

• Develop infrastructure: continue to invest in essential infrastructure like irrigation

schemes and marketing facilities to support agricultural added value and increase food
self-sufficiency

• Promote public/private engagement: encourage continued public/private dialogue and

partnerships to modernise agriculture, boost sector GDP, and ensure policy reforms
align with developmental goals

The 2010s: Implementation of development plans and integration with continental

initiatives

The 2010s saw a series of Five-Year Development Plans (FYDPs), collectively the 15-
year Long Term Perspective Plan roadmap (2011-25) designed to spur agricultural
growth, integration with international commitments, and the development of sub
sectoral Master Plans. FYDP I was principally concerned with increasing growth (from 4.4%
to 6%).10 FYDP II focused on industrialisation and value chain development. FYDP III aimed
to improve agricultural production by introducing modern crop management and enhancing
storage capacity. The Big Results Now initiative in 2013 sought public/private partnerships to
modernise agriculture, aiming to cultivate 350,000 ha of new commercial land and 330,000 ha
of smallholder land, but faced challenges with funding and political support.11 At this time
Tanzania also participated in the continent-wide Comprehensive Africa Agriculture
Development Programme (CAADP), leading to the Tanzania Agriculture and Food Security
Investment Plan (TAFSIP) to achieve 6% annual agricultural GDP growth. A 2015 review
identified areas of improvement for Tanzania in relation to CAADP: agriculture expenditure in
Government budget was found to be lower than the CAADP target of 10%, reaching ~5% in
2014/15 and the area under irrigation was also lower than target (430k ha vs. 1 mn ha). The
agricultural GDP growth rate achieved in the first part of the TAFSIP was lower than the
CAADP target of 6% and average fertiliser use was also lower than target (19.3 kg/ha vs. 50
kg/ha). Conversely, there were some successes seen in tractor use, under-5
undernourishment, and food poverty.12 Building on ASDS I, ASDS II (from 2015 to 2024) aimed
to promote inclusive growth and reduce rural poverty. ASDP II (from 2018 to 2028) focuses on
transforming agriculture, enhancing productivity, commercialisation, and smallholder incomes.
It is currently being implemented through various flagships (AGRI-CONNECT, SAGCOT,
TAIDF, and BBT-YIA).

Subsector plans such as the Livestock Masterplan (2017-21) supported ASDP II, outlining
investments to improve livestock productivity and identifying key value chains for increased
productivity. Fisheries Master Plan (2002-15) and National Aquaculture Development Strategy
(2018-25) aimed to develop fisheries and aquaculture in an economically, socially and
environmentally sustainable way.

10
Five Year Development Plan I
11
‘Unanswered questions as BRN disbanded’, The Citizen, 28 June 2017

‘Tracking CAADP Indicators: Tanzania’s Progress’, Stella Masswe, et al., presented at the 4th
12

Annual Agricultural Policy Conference, February 2018

39
Among others, these developments highlighted the importance of aligning with wider
economic and inter-regional commitments, prioritising value chains and technology in
agricultural transformation:

• Enhance sector growth: continue efforts to increase agricultural growth rates to achieve
economic development and poverty reduction goals, aligning with the Five-Year
Development Plans

• Deepen value chains: strengthen agricultural value chains and infrastructure to

promote industrialisation, increase productivity, and support smallholder farmers

• Modernise using technology: focus on modern crop management systems, increased

storage capacity, and technology adoption to improve competitiveness within the sector

• Strengthen public/private partnerships: encourage sustained engagement in

public/private partnerships to enhance market-oriented measures and foster
agricultural growth

• Align with CAADP: ensure alignment with the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture
Development Programme (CAADP) to attain objectives related to wealth creation, food
security, and economic prosperity

Deep Dive: ASDP II Mid-term Review

The Agricultural Sector Development Programme II is a ten-year, four-component

sector-wide programme to guide Tanzania’s agricultural sector. ASDP II is being
implemented in two five-year phases and was intended to build on previous strategies to
transform the sector. Its high-level goals are promoting sustainable practices, improving
infrastructure, enhancing farmers’ livelihoods, and ensuring food security. These goals are
to be achieved through the programmes’ key components: sustainable land use and water
management, enhanced agricultural productivity and profitability, commercialisation and
added value, and sector enablers/coordination/M&E. Each of these has a set of priority
investment areas. Upon completion of the first of the two phases, a mid-term review was
conducted to assess ASDP II’s implementation. As the AMP will replace ASDP II as the
sector wide strategy, it is critical to capture learnings from the MTR in the design of the AMP.

For its mid-term review, ASDP II has been assessed based on the OECD’s DAC
framework along the dimensions of relevance, coherence, effectiveness, efficiency,
impact, and sustainability. Overall, ASDP II scores low to moderate across most of the
criteria, confirming opportunities to build further with the new Master Plan:

• Relevance (rating: high): ASDP II has been found to be relevant as a framework for
Tanzania’s agrifood systems, and in relation to the country’s multi-sectoral
development approach and development vision. ASDP II could, however, be more
comprehensive (e.g., it has not covered in detail topics such as nutrition, pollution,
and biodiversity)

• Coherence (rating: moderate): ASDP II’s interventions have been found to be

compatible with other interventions in the agricultural sector, both national and
international. These include sector Ministry plans, Dakar 2 and CAADP. However, a
lack of clear funding lines and limited operationalisation means stakeholders do not
have a clear understanding of ASDP II’s role

40
 • Effectiveness (rating: low): ASDP II has not met its 7% sector growth target and
increased production levels in only 30% to 50% of priority value chains. In addition,
the programme has met export targets for only 37.5% of priority value chains and
import targets for only 33% of priority value chains. This is attributable to low
production and productivity, COVID-19, and climate change

• Efficiency (rating: moderate): ASDP II has been reasonably efficient in resource

allocation and usage. Fund allocation and usage have increased over the past five
years. However, funding was unpredictable, inconsistent, and unevenly distributed
between the four components. As a result of execution challenges, disbursement at
local level was low and delayed

• Impact (rating: moderate): ASDP II managed to improve the livelihoods of

smallholder farmers by enhancing production through investment in irrigation, dip
tanks, inputs, and extension. The programme has been less impactful in enhancing
food security, safety, and nutrition

• Sustainability (rating: low): ASDP II’s efforts to scale and sustain impact on
livelihoods have been limited in their success. While there is significant investment
in irrigation, for example, only 1.3% of current schemes are 100% operational.
Moreover, while financial investments to the sector have increased, they are still
below the CAADP target of 10% of total budget. Opportunities for conservation,
biodiversity, and other aspects of environmental sustainability have been grasped

The review suggests a set of recommendations in response to the above limitations.

These recommendations are reflected in the Master Plan (see section 6F of the Annex):

• ASDP II should move toward a more inclusive and systemic (i.e., food systems)
approach (e.g., by elevating health focus in agriculture)

• It is necessary to streamline and enhance coherence between ASDP II, national

development frameworks, and Ministerial strategies

• It will be critical to prioritise and deepen focus in a few catalytic areas (e.g.,
irrigation, rehabilitation, mechanisation, improved seeds and livestock breeds,
nutrition, post-harvest losses reduction, access to markets, and added value)

• The success of nationwide programmes requires stronger coordination (e.g.,

through a dedicated budget from the Government, sufficient human resources, close
collaboration with sector Ministries, and financial contributions from development
partners)

• Ensuring adequate and predictable funding from Government, development

partners, and the private sector is essential (e.g., increasing public sector
spending, increasing trust and transparency, and PPP)

• It will be important to strengthen the relationship between farmers and the

private sector through off-taker matching

• The enabling business environment should be enhanced to encourage sector

investment, added value, and exports (e.g., by reviewing and streamlining existing
trade and marketing policies)

41
 These valuable recommendations have been taken into consideration in the design of the
AMP to build on the critical work of the past and the impact of existing documents.

The 2020s: Focus on sustainable agriculture and sectoral development

In the 2020s, Tanzania has implemented strategic plans focusing on various aspects of
agriculture and food systems, notably sub sectoral development and sustainability.
Initiatives included the Fisheries Sector Masterplan (FSMP II), the Pathways for Sustainable
Food Systems 2030 (PSFS), the Medium-Term Strategic Plan (MTSP), and the Agriculture
Joint Sector Review (AJSR) with recommendations designed to enhance productivity,
resilience, data systems, trade, business environment, and ASDP II implementation. The
PSFS identified six transformative pathways for the agricultural sector, including
production/productivity, financing/private sector involvement, nutrition, climate change,
resilient food systems and their enablers, and R&D, with the MTSP supporting six related
strategic objectives and the AJSP arriving at eight recommendations. The Government
published Agenda 10/30 (‘Kilimo Biashara’), targeting 10% annual growth rates in the crops
sector by 2030, setting out a transformation pathway towards crops being a business-oriented
sector and specifying goals related to production, investment, exports, employment, and self-
sufficiency. Many of these key priorities were then brought together under the Food and
Agricultural Delivery (Dakar 2) Compact to drive implementation and achieve objectives
outlined in previous strategies, emphasising the importance of key value chains, investments,
and young people and women becoming more involved in agribusiness.

These latest efforts are the source of important lessons in the preparation of the Master
Plan in terms of focusing on multi-sector strategies, adopting a comprehensive view of
food systems and acting on recommendations from recent reviews of the sector:

• Develop a comprehensive food systems strategy: advance the Pathways for

Sustainable Food Systems 2030 (PSFS) strategy by focusing on transformative
pathways ensuring nutritious, climate-resilient, and sustainable food systems involving
multiple stakeholders

• Focus on multi-sectoral agricultural strategies: implement the Medium-Term Strategic

Plan (MTSP) objectives relating to productivity, commercialisation, human resource
capacity, sustainable land and water use, anti-corruption measures, and health
interventions within the agricultural sector

• Adopt sector review recommendations: address the Agriculture Joint Sector Review
recommendations by enhancing Government investment, improving productivity and
resilience, strengthening data systems, fostering regional trade, and improving the
business environment

Key common lessons from previous strategies

Previous strategies should be consolidated and learned from in the current Master Plan.
In addition to the lessons from each time period, there are common cross-period lessons for
the Master Plan from which to learn:

• Emphasise market-oriented agriculture: encouraging diversification and the

adoption of market-oriented agricultural practices is essential. This entails promoting
42
 the production of diverse commodities while aligning production with market demand.
Ensuring a balance between sustaining food security and meeting market needs will
foster economic viability. The Master Plan should prioritise strategies that stimulate
agricultural diversification and market-oriented approaches, enhancing both small
holder incomes and national economic stability

• Empower smallholders: central to the Agriculture Master Plan's success is the

empowerment of smallholders. Providing equitable access to credit, markets, and
technology will be pivotal in ensuring their growth and contribution to the agricultural
sector. Prioritising support for smallholders will not only boost their livelihoods but also
significantly contribute to national food security and economic development

• Set up adequate financing mechanisms: ensuring the initiatives have clear sources
of financing is critical for timely implementation. Applying a financing lens will make
sure initiatives are prioritised based on their cost/return which will lead to the highest
impact for the sector. It is also important to reflect on the most appropriate type of
financing for the different initiatives (e.g., P4R, project financing, basket fund…)

• Invest in infrastructure and technology: investing in modernising agricultural

infrastructure and adopting cutting-edge technology is imperative. Upgrading irrigation
systems, transportation networks, and embracing technological advancements will
vastly improve productivity and market access. The Master Plan should allocate
resources and efforts toward these critical areas to bolster agricultural efficiency and
sustainability

• Enhance PPPs: the advancement of Tanzania's agricultural sector hinges upon

fostering stronger partnerships between the public and private sectors. Collaborations
that harness the strengths of both sectors are pivotal in driving sustainable agricultural
development. The new Master Plan should emphasise the creation of robust public-
private partnerships, drawing on expertise and resources to achieve shared goals,
including increased productivity and market access for farmers

• Design effective coordination mechanisms: facilitating the coordination of the broad

group of stakeholders both within and outside the Government is critical for successfully
driving the transformation. This ensures stakeholders build on each others’ strengths
and initiatives and create synergies in approaches

• Ensure monitoring, evaluation and adaptation: implementing a robust system for

monitoring, evaluation, and adaptation is essential for the Master Plan's success.
Regular assessments will allow for the measurement of progress and identification of
areas needing adjustment. An adaptive approach, based on real-time data, will ensure
the Master Plan remains responsive, effective, and aligned with the changing needs of
Tanzania's agricultural sector

Drawing on these lessons, the AMP can ensure a successful agricultural transformation
for Tanzania. This transformation can help ensure that Tanzania improves upon its historical
agricultural production growth to continue demonstrating best-in-region agricultural output.

43
 B. An enabling environment for the agricultural sector

I. Situation and opportunities

The enabling environment of Tanzania’s agricultural transformation includes its R&D,
extension services, the business environment, infrastructure, access to
finance/insurance, and digitalisation. Tanzania faces challenges across each of these
elements, among the most critical being capacity for R&D, a large unmet demand for extension
services, a non-conducive business environment, limited access to finance, and low levels of
digitalisation. These challenges pave the way for opportunities to transform the cross-cutting
elements.

Research and development (R&D)

Agricultural R&D in Tanzania, which includes the development of new practices,

technologies and market-economics research, is dominated by Government research
institutions. They have been effective in producing some new agricultural technologies,
but critical challenges impede greater efficacy.13 Tanzania has one Government R&D
institution within each sector (the Tanzania Agricultural Research Institute (TARI), the
Tanzania Livestock Research Institute (TALIRI), and the Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute
(TAFIRI)) dedicated to the development of new inputs and practices.14 There is also one
Government market intelligence unit within each sector (the latter being responsible for
information dissemination, product tracing, and storage, as well as capacity building and
market linkages). About 70% of all relevant full-time equivalents (FTEs) come from the
Government (an equivalent proportion to that in Kenya, slightly higher than that of Uganda
(60%), slightly lower than the Africa average (71.5%) and much lower than Ethiopia (88%))15.
They collaborate with NGOs and higher learning institutions. Funding is a critical challenge
faced by the Government in this space. The Tanzania Agriculture Research Institute and the
Tanzania Livestock Research Institute have estimated funding gaps of $42 million and $33
million respectively.16 In addition to funding gaps, the lack of predictability of future funds for
R&D impedes the ability of each institution to plan for multi-year projects. R&D is also
hampered by the limited dissemination of technology to farmers (due to inefficient links to
extension officers) and limited personnel and infrastructure capacity for advanced research
(e.g., genetic analysis). Market and economics research is also limited. For example, between
24% and 50% of farmers do not market their products, often due to a lack of timely market
information.17 Overall, Tanzania’s agricultural R&D lags behind its peers in the region:
spending in 2016 was $68.5 million PPP (2011 constant price) in Tanzania, compared
respectively to 99.4, 162.1 and 222.7 in Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya. Likewise, agricultural
R&D spending as a share of agricultural GDP was only 0.17% in Tanzania, compared to
0.29%, 0.48%, and 0.62% in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, respectively. Tanzania’s total

13
Examples of successful agricultural technologies/practices from Government R&D institutions:
improved crop varieties and soil health management technologies (TARI), and improved livestock
breeding practices (TALIRI)
14
Countries such as Kenya and Uganda have a single entity.
15
ASTI Tanzania Recent Developments in Public Agricultural Research (IFPRI)
16
Expert interviews with TARI and TALIRI staff
17
World Bank blogs

44
number of FTEs employed in agriculture R&D is 785, below Kenya at ~1,158 and Ethiopia at
~3,025.18

R&D opportunity #1: Improve research capacity to deliver the research quality
required to support a modern agricultural system, using international best practices
to maximise cost-effectiveness

Modernisation of research capacity can happen across both public and private sectors and
could include improved coordination across both sectors to maintain a pluralistic research
ecosystem. For example:

• Private sector modernisation: provide support/incentives for private sector to

increase research capacity in Tanzania (e.g., subsidies for imported equipment)

• Public sector modernisation: ensure sustainable, long-term funding streams to plan

for multi-year projects, update required infrastructure/equipment, and in parallel
equip researchers with training to ensure effective use of latest technologies

R&D opportunity #2: Harmonise information systems for timely dissemination of

market and economic research to farmers

Upgrade and coordinate Government and private sector information platforms to provide
timely market information to farmers and encourage data-informed decision-making (e.g.,
what to grow and when, selling price points, etc.). Most information systems are currently
siloed but could be merged into a single, central database. Dissemination of market
information could then take place through multiple channels (e.g., extension agents, ICT,
radio, and farmer field schools).

Extension

Agricultural extension — the application of scientific research and knowledge to

agricultural practices through the dissemination of information, education, and training
to farmers — is Government-dominated in Tanzania and constrained by financial and
capacity challenges. While the system strives to promote the use of new agriculture
technologies and boost farmer productivity, only 6.9% of crop households and 9.1% of
livestock households received extension services in 2019/2020.19 Tanzania’s extension officer
to farmer ratio of 1:2,800 is significantly lower than the World Bank recommendation of 1:500.
Currently, more than 90% of extension workers operate within the public sector, and the
system is highly decentralised to local government. The limited funding available to
Government (there is an estimated 65% funding gap) has forced dependence on donor-funded
and private sector-funded extension.20 Additionally, there is limited oversight of use of public
funds for extension (e.g., funds allocated for extension agents can be redirected to other LGA
activities). Moreover, limited liaison has led to a lack of coordination between extension
services on one hand and the Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock and Fisheries on the

18
‘Agricultural R&D Indicators Factsheet Update: Tanzania’, IFPRI, August 2018
19
Tanzania Agri-Census Report 2019/2020
20
Expert interviews with Director of Extension at MoA

45
other. There is also significant unmet demand for extension services, with a gap of around
11,000 extension workers (in addition to the current 14,800 extension workers) to achieve 1
public extension worker per village. There are limitations to the quality of extension services,
stemming partly from a lack of training (e.g., the need for more refresher training and better
linkages with R&D), support (e.g., limited transportation facilities, extension kits, and subsidies
for networks), an officer backlog (i.e., thousands of graduate candidates are registered but not
yet employed), limited incentives for agents, and limited oversight/quality control mechanisms.
Partly in response to this unmet demand, digital extension services (M-Kilimo) were launched
in 2019 to reach more farmers, but currently fewer than 1% of users are active.

Extension opportunity #1: Improve quality of, and access to, extension services

The current body of extension agents (~11,000 agents) must be increased if extension
coverage is to reach all agricultural households. However, before increasing the number of
extension agents, existing agents must be equipped with the required operational supports
(e.g., motorbikes, extension kits) to execute their daily responsibilities, and feel
incentivised to do their best quality work.

• Extension quality: Implement mandatory refresher courses for ongoing capacity

building, increase availability of essential tools/equipment (e.g., motorbikes,
extension kits), and implement incentives, quality checks, and/or other oversight
mechanisms to check completion and outcomes of each visit.

• Extension access: Increase the current ratio of extension officers to farmers

(1:2,800), to scale coverage of physical extension. Additionally, improve the
usability/interoperability of M-Kilimo to scale digital extension coverage.

Business environment

Tanzania’s business environment is less conducive than regional peers and has
significant administrative challenges. Tanzania’s ease of doing business ranks 141st out of
190, compared to Kenya’s 56 and Uganda 116.21 Contributing to this ranking are the multiple
challenges of the business environment. For one, the time to register a business in Tanzania
is about 30 days vs. 21 days in Sub-Saharan Africa overall. Additionally, there are challenges
in tax compliance, with 59 payments required per year, vs. 36 in SSA. Likewise, there is a
challenge in complying with trading across borders – the cost to export is twice as high as the
SSA average for border compliance and there is a lack of agents to perform Good Agricultural
Practices (GAP) audits. Finally, the procedures and time to acquire land are also highly limiting
– the majority of land is owned by villages, and it can take 2 to 3 years to transfer land to
investors.

Business environment opportunity #1: Decrease time and cost to start a business
(incl. land acquisition)

Improve coordination across all entities with current involvement in starting a business (e.g.,
BRELA, TRA, OSHA, NIDA), to ensure no overlap in roles, fees, nor mandates. Additionally,
explore opportunities between the President’s Office and villages to decrease the amount of

21
World Bank Ease of Doing Business Report 2020

46
 time to transfer land from the Village Land Use Act to General Land Use, from 2-3 years to
less than 6 months.

Business environment opportunity #2: Upgrade tax record-keeping and payments

system

Improve tax record-keeping, ease of paying taxes for businesses (from ~60 to 35 annual
payments) and post-tax filing requirements. Current tax record-keeping is resulting in
random audits of commercial players, sometimes with demands for already-completed tax
payments.

Business environment opportunity #3: Reduce time and cost of cross-border trade

Review and remove duplicity of mandates across different departments to import and export
certain agriculture products (e.g., it is not uncommon for 3-4 entities to require export permits
for a single consignment). Additionally, reduce the number of procedures required to meet
border compliance standards, to decrease time that products are kept in air/seaports (esp.
for perishable goods).

Infrastructure

Infrastructure relevant to agriculture in Tanzania is less developed than regional peers

along several key measures. Tanzania ranks in 9th place in Africa in terms of road quality.
Market infrastructure, which consists of public abattoirs for livestock, landing sites and fish
markets for fisheries and storage and cold chain facilities across the sector, are either not
available (e.g., landing sites for fisheries, cold storage for horticulture and meat) or are
inadequate (e.g., insufficient adherence to sanitation measures in abattoirs, absence of
preferential treatment for perishable exports in seaports). When products need to be exported,
Tanzania suffers from limitations in its seaports and airports. In seaports: transit times in Dar
es Salaam are longer than in Mombasa, and cargo volume is limited (with 160 plugs for reefer
containers, vs. >1000 in Kenya, and no preferential treatment for perishable exports). Port
efficiency is also limited, with waiting times to berth of 4 to 12 days, vs. <2 days in Mombasa.
In terms of airport, Tanzania has airfreight of 11KT, vs. 330KT for Kenya. Capacity is highly
limited by the use of passenger planes with smaller belly space. Moreover, the average truck
unloading time is 1 to 2 hours at Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere and Kilimanjaro International
Airports, vs. 30 min for Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Kenya.

Infrastructure opportunity #1: Streamline processes in current export gateways, to

improve export logistics

Overhaul export logistics to reduce wait times in existing export gateways including
seaports and airports (e.g., reduce the time to load and unload cargo, time required to
meet border compliance standards).

47
 Infrastructure opportunity #2: Expand cold storage and cold-chain networks

Increase the capacity of cold storage and cold chains to enable scaled, quick movement of
perishable products (including horticulture goods, meat, dairy, etc.). Cold-chain capacity can
be increased through targeted Government investment (e.g., by region or by priority
commodities), private sector innovations, and/or deployment of public-private partnership
agreements.

Infrastructure opportunity #3: Improve road and electricity networks

Expand current rural road network and increase rural electrification. Pathways to take
advantage of these opportunities include Government-led infrastructure projects, public
private partnerships, community engagement and collaboration with international donors.

Access to finance and insurance

Tanzania’s agricultural sector also faces limitations in the availability of finance,

especially at the level of the smallholder farmer. Overall, agriculture only attracts 9% of
financing, even though it contributes ~30% of GDP. While there has been an increase in the
share of the agricultural sector with access to finance (from 6% in 2009 to 40% in 2022), access
is unequal among agribusinesses. Financial exclusion stands at 60% at the sector level and
80% for smallholder farmers. Tanzania, in fact, ends up in the middle of the South African
Development Community (SADC) in terms of financial inclusion, with only 22% of Tanzania’s
being banked (vs. 82% in best-in-class South Africa).22 Among the reasons for this low level of
financial access are the fact that commercial banks focus on commercial farmers and that the
use of credit is slow and informal. Regarding the first reason, commercial banks seldom finance
smallholders due to high barriers such as the lack of collateral due to land not being titled, and
the lack of finance records and contracts. At the same time, while there are Savings and Credit
Cooperative Societies and microfinance groups, credit service usage is low partly due to the
increasing interest rates on microfinance from commercial banks (e.g., CRDB Bank) and for
insurance (e.g., 9-12%). Insurance schemes guarantee up to 80% with the trust, Private
Agricultural Sector Support (PASS) and up to 50% with Tanzania Agricultural Development
Bank through the Smallholder Credit Guarantee Scheme.

In the area of financial services, there are opportunities in financial inclusion, capital
access and agricultural insurance. As productivity and profitability in the agricultural sector
increase, additional funds will be naturally unlocked for smallholder farmers. In the interim, until
these funds are fully unlocked, financial inclusion can be increased among smallholder,
particularly women and young people, through Government-led financial inclusion efforts,
digital financial services and technology, banking sector expansion and adaptation and
innovative financing models. Already 75% of Tanzanians adults own a mobile phone and 72%
of them use mobile money services, though these numbers are smaller in rural areas (69%
own a mobile phone, with cost being a primary reason many in rural areas do not use mobile
money). Moreover, there is an opportunity to leverage the proximity of even those in rural areas
of financial service points (83% of them are within 5 km).23 Several interventions (e.g., USAID’s

22
FinScope Tanzania 2023
23
Ibid.

48
Farmer-to-Farmer Access to Finance Programme) can increase capital access for
smallholders. Likewise, capital access can be increased for agribusinesses through developing
PPPs to fund major agricultural projects, introducing tax incentives for agribusiness investors,
establishing a dedicated agriculture investment or bank and collaborating with international
donors and organisation for grants and soft loans. Finally, there is an opportunity to expand
and optimise agricultural insurance coverage through pathways revolving around Government-
backed insurance initiatives, private sector innovation and community-based solutions.

Access to finance and insurance opportunity #1: Expand digital financial services and
establish innovative financing models to improve smallholder farmers’ financial
inclusion

Financial inclusion can be increased among smallholder farmers through Government-led

financial inclusion efforts, digital financial services and technology, banking sector
expansion and adaptation and innovative financing models. Already 75% of Tanzanians
adults own a mobile phone and 72% of them use mobile money services, though these
numbers are smaller in rural areas (69% own a mobile phone, with cost being a primary
reason many in rural areas do not use mobile money).

Access to finance and insurance opportunity #2: Set-up required infrastructure to

deploy PPPs, provide tax incentives, and establish an ag.-specific investment fund to
improve capital access

Consider different mechanisms and pathways to improve capital access, for example:

• Set-up the required infrastructure (personnel, frameworks) to deploy PPPs to fund

major agricultural projects, leveraging the President’s Office new PPP Unit

• Introduce tax incentives for agribusiness investors

• Establish a dedicated agriculture investment or bank and collaborating with

international donors and organisation for grants and soft loans

Access to finance and insurance opportunity #3: Improve regulations and guidelines
that will enable financial institutions to design appropriate agriculture insurance
products

Expand and optimise agricultural insurance coverage by enabling the design of high-
quality, affordable, and relevant products for smallholder farmers. Collaborate with
financial banks, insurers, and regulators to improve guidelines and regulations for product
innovation.

Digitalisation

Digitalisation in the context of agriculture is highly limited in Tanzania, across multiple

levels and domains. While according to the Botswana-based Centre for Coordination of
Agricultural Research and Development for Southern Africa (CCARDESA) Tanzania is ranked
5th out of 16 South African Development Community members, in terms of digital ecosystem
(and 10th for ICT infrastructure), the country suffers from a lack of system coordination across
various platforms from different gov’t entities to enable information exchange (incl. with respect
to the business environment, with extension services, ICT tools in R&D, and access to

49
finance). This limitation exists at the level of the country, within ministries, regions, districts,
localities and among final users. In the business environment, there are gaps in record-keeping
with respect to invoices, tax payments and timelines. Land records are kept in paper formats.
With regards to R&D, there is low use of ICT tools and no harmonised standards. In relation
to extension services, as stated above, while the M-Kilimo mobile platform has improved
communication between officers and farmers in rural areas, less than 1% of users are active.
Finally, with respect to finance, there are only a few digital initiatives (e.g., VICTORIA Finance
and the PASS offering for guaranteed digital loans to smallholder farmers).

Digitalisation: Coordinate existing digitalisation efforts with a pilot approach for 1-2
integrated services

Coordinate existing efforts across Government and development partners to construct a

single digital farmer registration database. Over time, continue to integrate additional
farmer-facing services such as market intelligence, digital extension services, platforms to
buy/sell products, etc.

50
Summary of opportunities across the enabling environment:

1. R&D: Modernise research capacity to improve research quality that is required

to support a modern agricultural system, using international best practices to
maximise cost-effectiveness

2. R&D: Harmonise information systems for timely dissemination of market and

economic research to farmers

3. Extension opportunity #1: Improve quality of and access to extension services

4. Business environment: Decrease time and cost to start a business (incl. land
acquisition)

5. Business environment: Upgrade tax record-keeping and payments system

6. Business environment: Reduce time and cost of cross-border trade

7. Infrastructure: Streamline processes in current export gateways, to improve

export logistics

8. Infrastructure: Expand cold storage and cold-chain networks

9. Infrastructure: Improve road and electricity networks

10. Access to finance and insurance: Expand digital financial services and
establish innovative financing models to improve smallholder farmers’ financial
inclusion

11. Access to finance and insurance: Set-up required infrastructure to deploy

PPPs, provide tax incentives, and establish an ag.-specific investment fund to
improve capital access

12. Access to finance and insurance: Improve regulations and guidelines that will
enable financial institutions to design appropriate agriculture insurance
products

13. Digitalisation: Coordinate existing digitalisation efforts with a pilot approach

for 1-2 integrated services

51
 C. Crops sector

I. Situation
The agricultural sector plays a significant role in driving Tanzania’s economy. The
sector contributes 28%24 to the country’s GDP, accounts for 30% of all export earnings
and provides 65% of the raw materials used by the industrial sector. Additionally, it
provides employment for 65% of the population, which represents approximately 7.8M
households, majority of which are small-scale farmers.

Crop production is the largest subsector and represents 64% of the total agricultural
sector GDP, and accounts for 15% to the national GDP. The subsector grew by 3.6% in
2021 and slowed to 2.7% in 202225. The slowdown is attributed to high fertiliser prices and
unreliable rainfall. The highest contributor to the growth of the sector has been food crops (e.g.,
maize, rice, pulses/beans) which have grown 7% p.a. in the last 3 years, they are typically
grown across the country. Traditional cash crops on the other hand experiences a slower
growth of 4% p.a. over the last 3 years, they are typically grown in Lindi, Pwani and Mwanza.
Finally, the horticulture sector shrunk over the last 3 years by 3% p.a., they are typically grown
in Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Iringa, Mbeya, and Tanga.

Both food crops and traditional cash crops show signs of recovery from production
slumps recorded in 2020 and 2022 respectively. Food prices have however increased
significantly between 2022-2023, with maize prices more than doubling for example. Historical
food insecurity figures have remained flat at 56% between 2017 and 2020, but recent cereal
consumption data show an increased consumption pattern over the last 3 years at a rate of
6% p.a., led by rice consumption which is increasing by 12% p.a.

Exports are dominated by few crops including cashew nuts, paddy/rice, tobacco and
coffee, with horticultor exports showing great promise. Imports have been dominated by
palm oil, and wheat accounting for almost 50% of the commodity import bill.

The following subsections detail the thorough diagnostics of the crops subsectors across
themes including land and water, production and productivity, added value, and market
access. These inform the development of the opportunity areas which are also discussed in
this section across the functional and commodity lenses.

24
Crops subsector contributes 15% to the national GDP.
25
2022 National Economic Survey

52
53
1. Land and water management

Land Use and Planning

1A. Tanzania has 40 million hectares of land suitable for agriculture of which 20 million
hectares is currently cropland as seen below. Cropland constitutes of land covered with
temporary crops and a bare soil (e.g., single and multiple cropping systems). The current status
of arable and cropland area was derived from research conducted by a detailed geospatial tool
(detail in Annex), utilising satellite imagery. For the land suitability analysis, it considered
weather, soil, topography, land use, gradient, and accounted for reserved land, settlements,
waterbodies and urban settlements. However, the official reported data estimates arable land
to be 44 million hectares, a number which is found in reports from the early 2000s. Additionally,
official reports estimate cropland to be 15 million hectares, which refers to the cumulative land
used in the short rains and long rains. A difference between these approaches is that the latter
relies on surveys which may not cover certain areas, compared to the utilisation of satellite
imagery which can also cover/account for hard-to-reach areas. According to official figures,
over the past two decades, the rate of land cultivation has seen an annual increase of 2%26,
indicating a gradual expansion of agricultural activities.

26
Ministry of Agriculture – Performance Update 31 Oct 2023; FAOSTAT URT

54
 Figure 14 Map showing the croplands in Tanzania27 Figure 15 Chart showing the regional breakdown of
croplands in Tanzania

Figure 17 Chart showing regional breakdown of current

Figure 16 Map showing potentially suitable land for and potentially suitable land for agriculture in Tanzania.
agriculture in Tanzania28

27
FAO; McKinsey ACRE; National Sample Census of Agriculture 2019/20; ICRAF Landscape portal;
ICPAC Geoportal

55
A significant portion of the land available for agricultural use, roughly 75%, falls under
the category of customary land as seen in Figure 18, 90% of which have no land tenure
certificates29Figure 18. This type of land ownership is prevalent among farming households
and by implication, they are using inherited village land, and have no legal documentation to
back-up its ownership, exacerbating instances for disputes, encroachment, and the inability of
the farmers to use the land as guarantee to access financing. This lack of access to land titles
is even stronger for women in this country.

The land tenure situation is further constrained by the absence of a comprehensive

national spatial planning policy, which creates ambiguity in land usage and
management. It also presents complexity for access to land for commercial farming or for
visibility on the status of land parcels which have been allocated for commercial farming
activities. The lack of clarity in land utilisation and planning poses a challenge for the
sustainable development of agriculture in Tanzania.

Figure 18: Structure of total farmer land access

Soil Health Status

Soil health is critical to ensure long term sustainable productivity of land. Often when
neglected, poor soil health can be costly in terms of loss of productivity and long-term
economic growth. Studies estimate that land degrading practices on cropland leads to 34%
productivity loss for rainfed maize in Tanzania for example30. This issue requires increased
attention because 46% of land in Tanzania is moderately degraded and 34% is severely
degraded, driven by factors including unsustainable agriculture, deforestation, overgrazing,

28
FAO; McKinsey ACRE; National Sample Census of Agriculture 2019/20; ICRAF Landscape portal;
ICPAC Geoportal
29
2021 National Agricultural Census
30
Economics of land degradation in Tanzania and Malawi

56
etc.31. Degradation refers to the biophysical disturbance of land that limits its ability to perform
its natural function of supporting crops, livestock development, among others. In a 2014 study,
it was estimated that the annual economic value of land lost to degradation in Tanzania is in
the realms of billions of dollars annually32. Degradation hotspots including Dodoma, Lindi,
Tabora, Singida are shown on Figure 19.

To reverse this trend, it is important to have a system in place which regularly assesses
soil health status and disseminates actionable outcomes to all stakeholders, including
farmers. This would support improving understanding of how practices affect soil health, and
what practices may be required to reverse the trend and improve soil health. This is currently
impeded by the fact that data on Tanzania's national soil and agroecological zones is not
practical due to low resolution and is considerably outdated. For instance, existing soil maps,
which are at a scale of 1:2 million, provide limited practical value as the data points are too
broad, spanning resolutions of 20km x 20km. Furthermore, pedological soil data, crucial for
understanding soil types and compositions has not been updated since 1984. Soil fertility and
agroecological zone data, was last collected in 1993. The status of these maps/data points are
hindering the ability to effective land management strategies.

Among the prevalent soil health challenges in Tanzania are salination, affecting 3.7
million hectares of cropland, soil acidity, particularly from aluminium or manganese
toxicity impacting 4.7 million hectares, and widespread soil erosion. Additionally,
sweeping - a consequence of overgrazing and overharvesting - leads to a depletion of organic
matter across croplands33. In a more recent effort, soil organic matter and acidity levels were
surveyed in 18 out of 26 regions in 2018, providing some farm-level insights. However, further
comprehensive soil studies have been stalled due to a lack of funding.

31
National Environnemental Master plan (2022-2032)
32
National Environnemental Policy, 2021
33
TARI

57
 Figure 19: Map of Tanzania showing the status of land degradation around the country.

Challenges in Acquiring Land for Agriculture

1B. Land ownership is imperative for development of the sector as it ensures long-term
investment in the land which is critical to growing the sector. Additionally, it creates the
opportunity for smallholder farmers to access tools such as financing required to uplift their
production. However, only 9% of smallholder land is titled, as seen on Figure 20. This is due
to the slow pace of executing village land use plans, the complexity of the processes and the
costs associated with the securing land titles/customary certificates.

Figure 20: Structure of farmer land ownership

Processing fees for acquiring land in Tanzania is 5% of property value, which is lower
compared to the 7% average in SSA and 6% in Kenya as seen in Figure 21. However, it
takes 67 days in Tanzania to acquire land as opposed to 44 days in Kenya34 as seen on Figure
22. Land tenures are typically set for periods of 33, 66, or 99 years, after which renewal is

34
World Bank

58
necessary. The absence of specific legislation for setting aside land parcels exclusively for
agriculture has led to situations where high-potential agricultural land is repurposed for non-
agricultural uses. Furthermore, 70% of Tanzania's land is classified as village land, which is
not available for investment until its status is changed to general land.

Figure 22: Timelines for acquiring property in

Figure 21: Processing cost of acquiring land as a Tanzania versus peers
percentage of property value in Tanzania versus
peers

Crops opportunity #1: Improve access to land for commercial activities and
smallholder farmers.

Deepen efforts to make agricultural land more accessible to local and foreign investors while
also supporting smallholders, especially women and young people to secure land ownership
rights to increase security around land, encourage long term investments and reduce
instances of conflict on land.

• Unlock commercial farmlands: Leveraging unused agricultural land, reviving

abandoned farming estates, identifying out grower locations to create commercial
parcels.

• Facilitate customary certificate right of occupancy (CCRO) access: Supporting

stallholders with accessing CCROs and providing education on its benefits.

These can be facilitated though expanding efforts on land use planning to identify and
allocate agricultural land while creating a database for agricultural land in the country.

Crops opportunity #2: Improve soil health to reduce further degradation through
climate smart agricultural practices.

Launch campaign and efforts to drive the adoption of climate smart agricultural practices in
the country.

• Degradation assessment: Assess the extent of degradation in the country, its drivers
and collaboratively with local communities develop the climate smart approach to
combat further degradation.

59
 • Carbon credit aggregators: By leveraging the capabilities of carbon credit
aggregators, create access to carbon markets for farmers which would serve as a
strong incentive for making the transition.

Irrigation and its Impact

1C. Tanzania has 2.3 million hectares deemed to have high potential for irrigation, based
on availability of land, water resources and consideration of socioeconomic factors35.
Irrigation is the application of water at a location to support crop growth at volumes in line with
crop needs. It can also involve the application of water to soil to bring it to a desired moisture
level before cultivation36. Overall, Tanzania's potential for irrigation is significant, estimated at
29.4 million hectares out of the 44 million hectares of arable land37, with 2.3 million hectares
considered as high potential. The high potential land can hence be initially prioritised for early
development over other areas.

The impact of irrigation on agricultural productivity is profound. It has the potential to

triple paddy production and more than double tomato production. The estimated yield ratio
between rainfed and irrigated farming stands at 2.6138, although this can vary depending on
the crop and the adoption of good agricultural practices and proper use on input.

Figure 23: Breakdown of Tanzania’s irrigation potential versus its current actual distribution

Currently, only about 0.7 million hectares, or 2% of the land with potential for irrigation
is developed, with the majority relying on traditional methods, as seen in Figure 23. The

35
National Irrigation Masterplan
36
National Irrigation Masterplan
37
National Irrigation Masterplan: Irrigation potential based on a Government study assessing water
resources, land resources and socioeconomic potential.
38
FAOSTAT

60
remainder are improved systems that mostly function during rainy seasons. Irrigation in the
southern highlands, primarily driven by paddy cultivation, accounts for over 90% of total
Government led irrigation39. Between 2014 and 2019, area under irrigation remained relatively
flat, growing at 1% p.a. due to limited investments in the sector as seen in Figure 24. As a
result of increased investments through programmes with JICA which ran from 2017-2020, the
National Irrigation Commission (NIRC) was able rebase estimates on coverage of area under
irrigation as seen in the year 2020. This rebase was based on irrigation cover which came
though infrastructure development, the identification or refurbishment of recorded and
unrecorded schemes which had been developed by NIRC, local communities, local
governments, etc.

Figure 24 Area under irrigation, 2014-2023

Climate Changes and the Role of Irrigation

The effects of climate change are becoming more pronounced, and will impact
Tanzania’s agriculture particularly due to current predominance of rainfed methods. A
decrease of rainfall at a rate of 3.3%40 per decade has been observed (1960-2006) which
impacted 2023 harvests for example where 35-70% of croplands across several districts in
Tanga, Arusha and Pwani regions were affected by drought41. This change of rain patterns is
only going to be exacerbated in the future and increased heat waves and dry spells are
expected. Studies estimate that a 20% variability in intra-seasonal rainfall patters could reduce
yields by up to 8%42, this highlights the importance for a wide range of climate adaptability
measures, in particular irrigation. This same study projects that a 2-degree Celsius increase in
temperature by 2050 could lead to 13%, 9% and 8% yield reduction in maize, sorghum and
rice. It is also projected that the effects of climate change in Tanzania’s agriculture by 2050
would lead to an increase in duration of heatwaves and dry spells which can lead to heat stress

39
Ministry of Agriculture
40
Assessing rainfall and temperature changes /Climate vulnerability profile 2013, 2018
41
FAO GIEWS
42
Climate variability and crop production in Tanzania

61
in crops reducing yields and productivity43. Crops including rice and cassava along the coast
are exposed to salinisation, waterlogging and inundation due to sea level rise by an estimated
16-42cm by 2050. There is also the risk of increased frequency and intensity of rainfall which
can lead to issues including crop damage, erosion, etc. Changes in rainfall patterns and
temperature can affect the prevalence of pest and diseases, as these changes may make
certain areas more conducive for their replication, leading to increased crop infestation.

Water resources in Tanzania44

It is possible to expand water usage for irrigation sustainably by 5-12 times through
leveraging available resources. It is possible to increase water usage for irrigation 5x if all
other water uses (including domestic and industrial) are proportionally increased alongside
irrigation use before reaching water stress. An increase of 12 times is possible if the current
levels if irrigation is prioritised over other uses.45

Despite irrigation accounting for 40% of Tanzania’s national water demand, uneven
water stress distribution across the country poses challenges, with northern regions
experiencing greater scarcity. Moreover, stressed water sources supply 70% of irrigation
needs, indicating a critical need for improved water management and irrigation methods to
ensure sustainable water resource utilisation. It is therefore critical to prioritise the extension
of irrigation in regions without water stress and with the capacity to further increase water
usage. The Rufiji basin, with the highest per capita renewable water resource, leads among
various catchments, including Lake Nyasa and Lake Rukwa, to contribute to an average
national water resource of 2,250 cubic metres per year as seen in Figure 25.

Figure 25: Water resources in Tanzania

43
Climate vulnerability profile 2018
44
Tanzania water resources factsheet
45
Based on the Falkenmark water stress indicator
62
 Crops opportunity #3: Increase area under irrigation to improve productivity and build
resilience.

Expand are under irrigation to support farmers with increasing productivity of their lands and
building resilience in the face of changing precipitation patterns to ensure food security

• Government led irrigation: Investments in large, medium, small irrigation schemes

and the establishment of borehole facilities in the country to ensure water access
and to utilise the breadth of water resources available.

• Private sector led irrigation: Establish a public-private-partnership framework to

encourage private sector investment.

• Creation of Irrigators organisation: Empowered organisations to run and maintain

irrigation schemes in their localities across the country.

2. Production and productivity

2A. In 2022, the production of the priority crops identified in the AMP as seen in Figure
26 was 24.5 million tonnes, valued at US$ 6 billion. Rice, maize, and cassava dominate
Tanzania's crop production. Productivity of these priority crops is however still low, estimated
to be at 35% of productivity achieved by top world performers.46 Despite being one of the top
producers of crops such as cashew nuts and beans in Africa, productivity is 11% and 18% of
the top performers in Africa.47 The country’s favourable agroecological conditions also present
opportunities to enhance the production of crops like avocados, sunflowers, coffee, and wheat.

46
Agenda 10-30
47
FAOSTAT

63
 Figure 26: 2022 priority crops production48

Major food crops

64
Increase in the production of major food crops, such as maize, has been driven by an
increase in harvested area in the last decade as seen in Figure 27. Production volumes of
the major food crops have grown at an average rate of 6.6% per annum over the last three
years, as seen in Figure 28.49 Beans are a particularly strong crop for Tanzania, with the
country being the largest producer in Africa, representing about 18% of the continent’s
production. Maize has seen a growth of 7% per annum, whereas paddy production has
experienced a 7% annual decline. The drop in production during 2021/2022, attributed to high
fertiliser prices and unreliable rainfall, prompted Government interventions such as fertiliser
subsidies and the expansion of irrigation.50 Productivity remains low across major food crops,
Figure 29 highlights a snapshot of yields of select food crops where it can be seen that
Tanzania lags behind top EAC and Africa performers in terms of yields for maize, paddy and
beans.

Figure 27 Maize production and harvested area 2012 - 2022.

49
Ministry of Agriculture – Performance Update 31 October 2023
50
Ministry of Agriculture

65
 Figure 29: Yield of select food crops in Tanzania,
Figure 28: Production of major food crops 2021-2023 EAC and Africa

66
Traditional cash crops

Traditional cash crops have faced an average annual negative growth rate of 8.2% from
2019-2023 as seen in Figure 30. 51 A sharp decline of 35% was observed between 2020 and
2021 due to a decrease in export volume of coffee and cotton, as well as a decrease in both
volume and world market price of sisal. Since 2021 there has been a slight recovery with a 4%
annual increase, led by cotton and coffee, where cotton has witnessed the fastest growth rate
at approximately 19% per annum. Conversely, cashew nut production has seen a steady
decline of 5% per annum over the last three years, mainly driven by climate changes and
challenges in application of crop protection.52 Productivity remains low across major traditional
cash crops, Figure 31 highlights a snapshot of yields of select traditional cash crops where it’s
seen that Tanzania lags behind top EAC and Africa with the widest gap seen in Coffee.

Figure 30: Production of priority traditional cash crops Figure 31: Yield of select traditional cash crops in
2019-2023 Tanzania, EAC and Africa

Horticulture

Despite overall growth in agriculture, the horticulture subsector has experienced a

decline of 3.0% per annum over the last three years, primarily in vegetable production,
which has plummeted by 38% annually as seen in Figure 32. The decline in vegetable
production has resulted in reducing its share in total horticulture production from 30% in 2021
to 11% in 2023.53 This decline can be attributed to the prolonged droughts, limited input
availability and unreliable markets. Nonetheless, Tanzania stands as Africa's second-largest
producer of cloves.54 The horticulture sector sees substantially higher margins, for instance,

51
Cotton, cashew nuts, cotton, sisal, tobacco, pyrethrum, tea, sugar cane
52
Ministry of Agriculture – Performance Update 31 Oct 2023
53
Ministry of Agriculture – Performance Update 31 Oct 2023
54
FAOSTAT

67
tomatoes yield a +60% margin compared to rice at 24%.55,56 However, horticultural productivity
is low, with top yields in the East African Community (EAC) surpassing Tanzania’s by up to
57% in the case of bananas for example57, as seen in Figure 33.

Figure 32: Production of horticulture crops 2021-2023 Figure 33: Yield of select horticulture crops in
Tanzania, EAC and Africa

Post-harvest losses

2B. Post-harvest losses are significant, with up to 40% of average harvests lost across
all crops.58 Specific losses are 15-20% in maize, paddy, beans, and cassava, as seen in
Figure 34, and over 40% in the horticulture sector.59 As highlighted in Figure 35, losses typically
occur during drying, storage, processing, and transportation, with insects and pests being
perceived as the main causes.60 Losses in horticulture are driven by several factors including
the limited availability of cold chain, the fact that priority is not given to horticulture products
during transit despite their high level of perishability. For example, 20-50% of tomato harvests
are lost; 20-80% of banana harvests are lost, and 13-32% of fruits and vegetable harvests are
lost. 20-40% of tomatoes in Northern Tanzania are lost due to pre-harvest losses, which can
be higher at the onset of diseases such as tuta absoluta where losses reached 50% during the
outbreak in 2019.

55
Market options for smallholder horticulture growers
56
Smallholder rice farmers profitability
57
FAOSTAT
58
East Africa Post-Harvest loss strategy and action plan for fruits and vegetables
59
National Post Harvest Loss Strategy 2019-2029
60
National Horticulture Masterplan

68
 Figure 35: Perception of farmers on the causes of post-harvest
Figure 34: Average post-harvest loss of
losses
select food crops, 2015-2020

Crop boards

To support the development of key commodities, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) oversees
specialized crop boards dedicated to spearheading policy initiatives, goals, and
comprehensive strategies for designated crops. These boards are pivotal in executing policies,
ensuring robust production and marketability, managing stakeholder relations, and structuring
markets within their scope. Their efforts are instrumental in supporting the MoA's objectives to
amplify: (i) Production efficiency and yield, (ii) Employment prospects, with a focus on
increasing involvement among women and youth, (iii) Resilience in food and nutritional
security, (iv) Market access, agricultural financing, and export opportunities and (v) The
development of cooperatives. While crop boards have significantly contributed to the
advancement of their respective crops, it is critical to continue to optimize their operations and
mandates to eliminate redundant activities and enhance efficiency.

Historically, the boards have been structured around the traditional cash crops such as cashew
and coffee. A recent development in the board landscape of the country however is the
establishment of the Cereals, Oilseeds, and Produce Regulatory Authority (COPRA). This
marks a significant milestone in extending oversight to crops which were previously without
dedicated board support. COPRA is currently being set-up and its mandate and role clarified
with key stakeholders.

Highlighted achievements of crop boards include:

- The Cashew Board managed the procurement and distribution of 49,000 metric tons of sulfur
and 3 million litters of pesticides, aiming for a production target of 400,000 tons for the 2023/24
season.

- The Coffee Board distributed 3 million Robusta seedlings at no cost to farmers in the Kagera
region in 2022 to enhance production.

69
- The Cotton Board facilitated the availability of 25,000 metric tons of high-yield UKM08 variety
seeds across the nation's 17 cotton-growing regions through seed multiplication efforts.

- The Sisal Board took over 20,000 hectares of unused sisal farms for revitalization and
redistribution to smallholders, targeting a production goal of 120,000 metric tons by 2025.

- The Sugar Board is working towards the creation of 24,000 direct and 180,000 indirect jobs
in sugar plantations to advance the country's self-reliance in sugar production.

- The Tea Board championed the launch of a digital/online tea auction system to reduce costs,
enhance transparency, and position Tanzania as a regional trading hub.

- The Tobacco Board has revitalized the industry, with production soaring to 120,000 metric
tons in 2023 from 60,000 metric tons in 2022, correcting years of fluctuating outputs.

Crops opportunity #4: Increase production and sale/exports of major food and cash
crops though improved board execution.

Developing food and cash crops though coordinated efforts led by crop boards

• Cash crops: Boards support for quality extension, access to high quality inputs,
ensuring appropriate pest control, added value and access to export markets.

• Food crops: Board to support improving quality, market access, efficacy of contract
farming, etc.

National Food Reserve

The National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) has a storage capacity of 340,000 metric
tonnes (MT)61. As seen in Figure 36, the NFRA has a network of storage facilities in the country
with the largest being in Sumbawanga, with a capacity of 89,000MT. The NFRA would at any
point hold upwards of 150,000MTof grains as that is enough to feed the country for 6 months
in the event of a disaster. To plan purchases/sales for the season, the NFRA leverages the
early warning systems in the Ministry of Agriculture to support with the determination of
purchases/sales for the season. In 2023, the reserve included 202,000MT of maize and
6,700MT of rice. The NFRA purchases directly from smallholder farmers through buying points
located in high producing areas including Iringa, Njombe, Sumbawanga, etc. The NFRA also
has contracts with farmer cooperative and traders to also facilitate purchases. There are plans
to expand storage capacities to include other crops like sunflower, wheat, and beans. The
NFRA intends to become the largest food reserve agency in the EAC and SADC regions with
capacity larger than Zambia’s 1.1Mn tonnes and South Africa’s 2Mn tonnes aiming for a
capacity of 3Mn tonnes to enable Tanzania to also meet broader regional demand.

61
NFRA

70
 Figure 36: Tanzania NFRA capacity and network

Mechanisation

2C. Currently, 25% of land is cultivated using tractors, predominantly for land
preparation, with most other farm activities conducted manually, as seen in Figure 38. This
limits productivity as farmers are unable to complete farming activities such as planting in time
as rains commence, thereby increasing risk of crop failures. They are also unable to practice
intensification which in turn optimises the use of land for agricultural activities. Tractor numbers
have increased by 8% per annum over the last six years, driven by the private sector, as seen
in Figure 37, but this is still behind the goal of reducing manual cultivation to 10% by 203062.

62
Ministry of Agriculture

71
 Figure 37: Evolution of number of tractors in Figure 38: Land cultivation distribution by method
Tanzania

The Government has undertaken certain efforts to promote mechanisation in the

country including providing tax exemption for the importation of farm machinery, spare
parts, public financing from funds like the Agricultural Inputs Trust Fund (AGITF). In
2022, the AGITF disbursed 56 loans valued at over $0.8M which was a 21% increase over its
disbursement in 2021 for mechanisation implements including tractors and tillers63. It should
be noted that the level of mechanisation is different across regions, and tractors move around
the country depending on the season. Additionally, not all tractors in the country are used for
agricultural activities, some are for example used for other activities including the
transportation of waste in big cities. Overall. It is estimated that the level of mechanisation is
very low and tractor density is less than 0.1hp/ha which is below the FAO recommendation.
The Government is in the process of reviewing the National Mechanisation strategy during
which it would conduct an assessment to understand the current situation of mechanisation in
the country, and set-up strategies plans towards 2030 and 2050 to improve mechanisation.

Fertiliser Use

Tanzania's fertiliser use is low at 19kg/ha64, which below the sub-Saharan average of
22kg/ha65 and well below world average of 146kg/ha as seen in Figure 39. However, there
has been an improvement from 1kg/ha in the early 2000s to 19kg/ha in 2023. Proper fertiliser
use in combination with good agricultural practices could potentially sextuple yields in some
cases66 as seen in Figure 40.

MFUKO WA PEMBEJEO - TAARIFA KWA AJILI YA MAANDALIZI YA KITABU CHA HALI YA

63

UCHUMI 2022
64
Ministry of Agriculture – Performance Update 31 Oct 2023
65
World Bank
66
CGIAR;

72
 Figure 39: Fertiliser usage across the world Figure 40: Results of CGIAR fertiliser
demonstration experiment on Maize in Iringa,
Tanzania

As seen in Figure 41, fertiliser consumption in Tanzania increased year-on-year between

2015 and 2018 at a rate of 21% p.a. In 2019, consumption declined by 41%, but recovered in
2020, crossing the 500,000MT mark for the first time. Consumption again declined in 2021,
and recovered close to 600,000MT in 2022. The decline in consumption levels are driven by
high fertiliser prices in the global market, and the recovery is driven by the re-introduction of
the fertiliser subsidy.

Figure 41 Apparent fertiliser consumption, 2015-202267

Urea, Diammonium phosphate, NPK and ammonium sulphate make up 80% of fertiliser
used in Tanzania as seen in Figure 42. This is driven primarily by the cultivation of crops
such as maize, which is cultivated on 4Mha, and uses +50% of fertilisers in the country, as
seen in Figure 43. Additionally, NPK, specifically NPK blend 10-18-24, is mostly used by
tobacco farmers. As a result of the high fertiliser prices in recent years, many farmers turned
to the use of Agri-lime and gypsum to improve their soil health and optimise the use of fertilisers
on their fields. This suggests that some farmers are becoming more aware of the impact of

67
International Fertilizer Development Centre (IFDC): [Link]

73
mineral fertilisers on their soils, and some of the inputs required in addition to improve soil
health.

Figure 42 Apparent fertiliser consumption by type in 2022 Figure 43 Tanzania fertiliser usage68

Tanzania has been unable to meet demand for fertilizers. In Figure 44, it is seen that despite
sufficient availability in the country, fertiliser utilisation is below the estimated demand by up to
14%. The high prices of fertilisers at the point of consumption have been identified as a major
contributor to unmet demand gap69.

Figure 44 Fertiliser estimated demand vs consumption.

68
Fertilizer sector development strategy (2023-2030)
69
Ministry of Agriculture; AMP working group

74
The Government has explored 5 models to drive fertiliser usage up since 2009 as seen
in Figure 45 and has recently rolled out the National Agricultural Input Voucher System
(NAIVS) a digital platform through which registered farmers access fertiliser subsidies. The
Government covers 49%-58% of the market price, depending on the fertiliser while the farmers
cover the balance. All private sector players, including agro-dealers are not allowed to sell
fertilisers outside the subsidy programme.

Figure 45 Government intervention in Fertiliser to increase utilisation70.

The total of fertiliser imported and produced in Tanzania in 2022 was under 700,000MT,
this represents a 52% gain off the sharp decline recorded in 2021 where volumes shrank
by 37% the year prior as seen in Figure 46. This decline was driven by three key factors in the
global market; the Ukraine-Russia war impacting availability and prices, importers hesitant to
import due to pricing uncertainty and potential reduced demand and the Covid-19 pandemic.
40% of fertiliser imports are from 4 countries: Morocco, Finland, Russia and Oman, with
Morocco accounting for 21% of all fertiliser import volumes. Fertiliser production in the country
grew 26% p.a. between 2019 and 2021 but recorded a decline of 11% in 2022, as seen in
Figure 47. The decline was due to one of the local producers; Minjingu, based in Manyara
shutting down some of its lines to create room for expansion of production.

70
Ministry of Agriculture

75
 Figure 46 Tanzania fertiliser production and imports Figure 47 Tanzania fertiliser production 2019-2022
2020-2022

Figure 48 Current fertiliser production capacity Figure 49 Current organic fertiliser production capacity

Tanzania has a total blending capacity of 370,000MT of fertiliser annually, and 14,000MT
to produce organic fertiliser annually as seen in Figure 48 and Figure 49. 80% of fertiliser
capacity is held by Itracom and Minjingu with plans to increase capacity to 1,000,000MT
annually and 300,000MT annually respectively within the next 2 years. Itracom produces
organo-mineral fertilisers combining minerals, organic waste/compost, Agri-lime, etc. in
Dodoma. Minjimgu mines and Fertiliser Limited produce hyper phosphate mixed with micro-
nutrients and granulate and blend NPK and NP compounds in Arusha. ETG and Yara are
among the largest importers of fertiliser and have served majority of farmers for many years
and produce NPK blends. ABM equipment services limited, and APP lime products company
produce lime supplements in Tanga.

76
 Figure 50 Fertiliser exports 2019-2022

Overall, (re)exports of fertilisers from Tanzania to key destinations including Burundi,

Rwanda and Kenya has been on the decline since 2020, this is driven by misaligned
regulatory framework with neighbours, informality, non-tariff barriers such as checkpoints, high
port handling charges and transportation costs leading to neighbours seeking alternative
sources.

Crops opportunity #5: Increase domestic fertiliser production and blends.

Develop domestic fertiliser industry to become the regional fertiliser hub levering available
resources to build bespoke products which would improve productivity, soil health and build
resilience against external shocks.

• Review subsidy: Improve the programme to support the inclusion of the domestic
ecosystem and to support farmers who are prioritising the use of inputs in line with
soil needs.

• Develop industry: Conducting feasibility studies to identify pathways to take on raw

material use, production, etc., considering environmental impacts, economic viability
and market needs.

• Trade polices: Align fertiliser regulatory framework with neighbours to facilitate

trading of Tanzanian fertilisers.

77
Improved Seeds

Currently, improved seed production for various food crops, cash crops, oil seed,
horticulture, etc. satisfies only about 25% of effective demand and 13% of potential
demand71. Challenges in the production of improved seeds include a lack of irrigation
infrastructure at Government-owned breeding and multiplication sites, outdated traditional
methods of seed breeding leading to extended periods for new variety development, and
prolonged seed certification processes. Currently, the Tanzania Agriculture Research Centre
that is responsible for the production of breeding seeds, is only able to meet 23% of its target
for staple/crop seeds and 20% for vegetative material, as illustrated in Figure 31. Additionally,
the private sector production of improved seeds is limited, largely due to the lack of a
predictable investment environment in the sector. Consequently, the overall seed availability
has also been limited when compared to the effective seed demand, a gap which had worsen
over the last 10 years are shown below. Projections estimate effective demand to reach as
high as 600,000 tonnes by 203072.

Figure 51: TARI seed production Figure 52: Domestic seed demand and supply

Despite newer genetics being approved, most farmers still rely on seeds that are over a
decade old73. This is seen in Figure 53Error! Reference source not found. where most
seeds certified for use in 2021, were dated between 2002-2007. This is further compounded
by the challenge of low willingness to utilise improved seeds due to lack of awareness, limited

71
Tanzania Agriculture Research Institute
72
ASA
73
Ministry of Agriculture

78
financing, and consistent availability. Farmers would experience significant gain though the
adoption of improved seeds as they are bred to resist certain pests, diseases, adverse
environmental conditions and generally have better germination rates and yields.

Figure 53: Approval year of seeds certified for use in 2021

Crops opportunity #6: Increase seed production to improve productivity and build
resilience.

Increase capacity and capability to develop suitable, competitive, and resilient seed varieties
adapted to Tanzania’s climatic and agroecological characteristics, replicate these and make
them available to farmers.

• Government led: Developing the capacity and capability of Government entities

including TARI, ASA and TOSCI to develop, replicate and certify seeds required.

• Private sector led: Create business friendly environment for private seed companies
to thrive in the seed production subsector.

• Coordination: Coordinate production efforts of public and private sector players in

seed production to ensure availability of the right seeds, varieties, when needed.

Crop Protection
79
Less than 20% of cultivated land is treated with crop protection products (CPP)74.
Insecticides are the most applied CPP, with adoption rates of 23% of households during the
long rains of R2020. There has been a 4 to 20 times increase in the use of crop protection
products (CPP) in Tanzania between 2021 and 2023 as seen in Figure 54 which may be
attributed to Government subsidies and recent pest outbreaks75.

Figure 54: Use of crop protection products in Tanzania, 2021-2023

As seen in Figure 55, herbicide use in Morogoro, Mbeya and Songwe is high because
Morogoro and Mbeya are major rice and sugarcane producers, while Songwe is a major
sugarcane producer and herbicides are required for weed control. Fungicide use is high in
Iringa, Kilimanjaro and Arusha because they are horticulture producing areas and need it for
control of fungal diseases.

74
2021 National Agricultural census
75
Tanzania Plant Health and Pesticides Authority (TPHPA)

80
 Figure 55 Fungicide and herbicide use in Long Rains 2020

3. Added value

3A. In Tanzania, the agricultural sector is largely comprised of crops that are either
consumed domestically, traded, or exported in their raw form. This leads to the country
not capitalising on its full potential from the crops produced. Only 13% of smallholder farming
households engage in any form of agro-processing76, despite 25% of registered manufacturing
companies being agro-processors and employing more than half of the manufacturing sector's
workforce77. Typically, processed agricultural products can fetch almost double the price of
their unprocessed counterparts.

For specific crops, 12% of paddy and 5% of maize undergo processing by farming households,
mainly to meet domestic consumption needs78. For cashew nuts, 90% of them are exported
raw, with a mere 10% processed locally79. Cotton production only fulfils 20% of the country's

76
Agriculture census 2019/2020
77
Case studies on Tanzanian food processing enterprises
78
Agriculture census 2019/2020
79
Ministry of Agriculture

81
primary processing capacity, with most being exported as raw lint80. The sisal industry operates
at a processing capacity of 50,000 metric tonnes (MT) per year, despite having a potential
harvest of up to 80,000 MT/year81. Within the horticulture sector, only 8% of harvests are
processed, while the rest is consumed fresh locally82.

Limitations in added value 83

3B. Added value within Tanzania is constrained by various factors such as supply chain
inefficiencies due to poor road infrastructure, inadequate village-level storage, and the
seasonal availability of raw materials. Quality issues also plague the industry; for example,
locally produced wheat does not meet the gluten requirements for processing, leading to
increased imports. The lack of access to technology and skills limits the range of products that
can be derived from commodities and affects the quality of the output, especially with SMEs
unable to meet quality requirements stipulated by the Tanzania Bureau of Standards (TBS).
Regulatory hurdles around taxation and high production costs due to expensive technologies
and operating expenses, such as electricity, further hamper the growth of the processing
sector.

4. Market Access

Export Market

4A. Tanzania's agricultural exports were valued at US$1.2 billion, with cashew nuts, rice,
coffee, cotton, and maize being the primary exported crops in 2022 as seen in Figure 56.
Horticulture exports have grown at a rate of 14% per annum and now represent half of
traditional cash crop exports as seen in Figure 57. However, there is a declining trend in the
export of traditional cash crops, falling by 6.5% per annum as seen in Figure 5884.

80
Tanzania agriculture and processing; crop board
81
Crop board
82
National Horticulture Masterplan
83
A review of the challenges affecting the agro-processing sector in Tanzania
84
2022 National Economic Survey

82
 Figure 57: Horticulture exports, 2017-
2022

Figure 58: Cash crop exports, 2017-

2022

Figure 56: Key 2022 export commodities and key destinations85

Export Limitations

Tanzania's export capacity suffers from inadequate infrastructure, including border

ports, airports, and seaports. The limited cargo capacity often results in delays, and
exporters sometimes use passenger planes for shipment. Comparatively, Tanzania's airfreight
capacity is significantly smaller than Kenya's, which also ends up handling some Tanzanian
cargo. Additionally, lack of preferential treatment for perishables and insufficient sanitary and
phytosanitary facilities at ports pose risks for Tanzanian exports.

Crops opportunity #7: Increase added value and market access.

Create access to warehouses to expand access to markets and better prices for farmers
and attract investors to widen added value capability and capacity.

• Warehouse access: Create an enabling environment for private sector investments

to establish warehouses close to farmers which can be used to store produce which
utilise channels such as TMX or warehouse receipt systems to fetch favourable
markets and prices.

• Added value: Enable the private sector to invest in processing plants across the
country to add value to commodities before sale and export.

85
Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics; United Nations Comtrade database

83
Farmer Organisation

4B. Farmer organisations, particularly cooperatives and groups, play a crucial role in
accessing both domestic and export markets.

Cooperative Groups

- Cooperatives are prevalent in traditional cash crops and some major food crops.

- They generally engage in some level of primary processing and utilise slower market
access models due to longer shelf life.

- Market access is achieved via warehouse receipt systems, auctions, or direct sales,
with input access often facilitated through cooperatives or crop boards.

Farmer Groups

- Smallholder horticulture farmers often form agile groups to access markets quickly due
to the perishable nature of their produce.

- These groups tend to sell produce in fresh form and utilise various aggregation models,
such as off-takers, to access markets.

- Input access is arranged directly or through contract farming with off-takers.

Crops opportunity #8: Support farmers to organise themselves so they can access
formal services, inputs and markets.

Create an ecosystem of public and private initiatives to provide farmers with support to
organise and access relevant tools and services to realise their full potential though the best
aggregation programmes possible.

• Build on existing Government programme: programmes such as the BBT could be

used to develop youth-led SMEs which can provide these services to farmers.

• Utilise the power of the private sector: models such as incubators have been
successful at creating and nurturing innovative businesses which solve major
challenges and could be used to unlock the provision of rounded services to farmers.

Crops opportunity #9: Investment in early warning systems to improve resilience.

Establish an early warning and response systems which can trigger response in record time
to mitigate damage against risks including extreme weather effects e.g., drought, pest and
disease outbreaks, etc.

• Create an integrated digital system: leveraging early warning desks across ministries
and Government agencies, establish a system with capabilities to monitor all relevant
indicators.

• Create a mechanism and capability to respond/act: create resources e.g., food and
feed reserves, policy and accountability to enable ability to respond appropriately in
the event of a disaster.

84
Domestic Market

4C. Tanzania’s national food requirement is projected to reach 20 million tonnes by

2030, driven by population growth and rising domestic income as seen below. Coarse
grains, particularly maize, constitute 40% of the country's caloric intake, while rice consumption
is growing at 12% annually as seen in Figure 59. Most of the horticulture produce is consumed
domestically, reflecting a demand for healthier diets and the growth of the middle class.

Figure 59: Cereal consumption in Tanzania 2020-202286

Food Security and feed availability

The prevalence of chronic malnutrition (stunting) in children under the age of 5 has
decreased over the years as seen in Figure 60 from 42% in 2010 to 30% in 2022. This
implies a reduction of about 4.6% after every five years. Half of the regions in Tanzania are
experiencing stunting prevalence of ≥30%, with high prevalence ≥40% in food basket regions
(Iringa, Rukwa, and Njombe) as seen in Figure 6187.

86
FAO 2020 cereal supply and demand balance in Africa; FAO 2021 cereal supply and demand
balance in Africa; FAO 2022 cereal supply and demand balance in Africa;
87
Tanzania TDHS-MIS 2022 Summary Report English and Swahili
[Link]

85
 Figure 60 Trend of children under 5 who are
malnourished in Tanzania Figure 61 Regional map showing children who are stunted
in Tanzania.

Although known as the ‘breadbasket of East Africa,’ the country's food insecurity rate is
relatively high, with staple food prices seeing substantial increases. For example, maize prices
more than doubled last year as seen in Figure 62Error! Reference source not found..

Figure 62:Tanzania wholesale food prices, 2022-2023

Additionally, livestock and aquaculture feed demands are largely unmet, contributing to
the food security challenge. As seen in Error! Reference source not found. Aquafeed and p

86
oultry 24% of aquafeed demand is left unmet and in Error! Reference source not found.,
62% of poultry demand is left unmet88.

Figure 63: Estimated aquafeed demand Figure 64: Estimated poultry feed demand

Import Bill

Palm oil and wheat constitute half of Tanzania's import bill of TZS 1,842 billion in 2021,
as seen in Figure 65. The decline in food imports as a percentage of total national imports
suggests an increase in local production, with initiatives underway to achieve self-sufficiency
in sugar production by 2024. Tanzania’s primary trading partners include the UAE, South Africa
and India which accounts for a significant portion of food imports, as seen in Figure 67.

88
Ministry of Livestock and Fishery

87
 Figure 66 Food import bill as a percentage of
total import bill, 2015-202090

Figure 65: Key 2021 import commodities89 Figure 67: Key source countries for
Tanzania’s food imports91

Regional Trade

As seen in Figure 68, the trade of cereals in the East African region, has been on an
upward trajectory, growing by 4% annually over the last four years, predominantly driven
by Kenya, which constitutes 60% of the region's cereal imports. Kenya, alongside Uganda, has
experienced the highest growth rates in cereal imports at 6% per annum, fuelled by increased
imports of both wheat and coarse grains in Kenya and wheat in Uganda. In contrast, Zambia
and Malawi have witnessed a decline in cereal imports at an approximate rate of 6% per annum
within the same timeframe. These trends reflect the dynamic nature of regional agricultural
trade and the varying capacity of countries to produce or import essential food commodities.

89
Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics
90
Economic Survey 2022
91
United Nations Comtrade database

88
 92

Figure 68: Annual regional cereal imports by East African Countries93

In the case of Tanzania, cereal imports are dominated by wheat, which accounts for 80%-90%
of imports, as see in Figure 69. Overall, cereal imported to Tanzania is below the regional
import trend, suggesting that the increased sufficiency is mainly driven by declining reliance
on imported rice.

Figure 69 Tanzania's annual cereal imports

92
Includes: Wheat, rice, barley, sorghum, millet, rye; Excluding Tanzania at 1,025MT cereal
imports in 2022, mainly driven by wheat
93
FAO 2020 cereal supply and demand balance in Africa; FAO 2022 cereal supply and demand
balance in Africa

89
 II. Opportunities
Opportunities across the value chain

Based on the situation, opportunities across the value chain have been identified which are
critical to transform the crops sector. These opportunities are shown below:

Summary of Crop opportunities:

1. Improve access to land for commercial activities and smallholder farmers.

2. Improve soil health to reduce further degradation through climate smart agricultural
practices.

3. Increase area under irrigation to improve productivity and build resilience.

4. Increase production and sale/exports of major food and cash crops though
improved board execution.

5. Increase domestic fertiliser production and blends.

6. Increase seed production to improve productivity and build resilience.

7. Increase added value and market access.

8. Support farmers to organise themselves so they can access formal services, inputs
and markets.

9. Investment in early warning systems to improve resilience.

90
Commodity-specific opportunities

Beyond the opportunities across the value chain, it is critical to identify commodities with the
highest potential for the transformation. These have been selected based on the following
criteria: share of agricultural GDP, potential for growth, contribution to small holder income
resilience and sustainability and diet quality. The selection for specific commodities allows for
an increased focus on impact and for a regional lens to the needed interventions.

Figure 70: Crops commodity-specific opportunities.

91
D. Livestock sector

I. Situation
The role of the livestock sector in Tanzania’s economy

The livestock sector is pivotal to Tanzania’s prosperity and growth. It is a major

employer and an important contributor to healthy nutrition. The sector accounts for 32%
of GDP from agriculture (~7% of all GDP) and over 50% of households are actively engaged
in livestock rearing.94,95 For many families, livestock is both an economic pursuit and an integral
aspect of their daily lives.

While livestock products such as meat, milk, and eggs are important for enhancing
nutrition, they accounted for only a modest 6.5% of the average Tanzanian diet in 2017
(as measured by average caloric intake). Animal protein contributed 16% of daily protein
consumption (10/64 grams). In contrast, vegetable protein accounted for a substantial 78% of
daily protein intake (50/64 grams), and fish for 6% (4/64/grams).96 To put this into perspective,
global daily protein supply is on average 84 grams, with 39% derived from animal products
(33/84 grams).97

Figure 71: Sources of protein consumption in Tanzania and in the world

94
Tanzania Agricensus report 2019/2020
95
Livestock Modernisation Initiative
96
National Food Balance Sheet 2017/2018 (excludes 4g of protein from fish products)
97
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)

92
Value chains selected for diagnostic

For this Master Plan, four commodities are prioritised: poultry (specifically chicken),
dairy, beef, and goat meat/mutton. The Livestock Sector Analysis for the period 2016/2017
outlines eight types of commodity: beef and live cattle, dairy, goat meat and live goats, mutton
and live sheep, hides and skins, chicken meat, chicken eggs, and pork and live pigs.98
However, for the purpose of this Master Plan, chicken meat and chicken eggs were
consolidated into a single value chain, and goat and sheep were combined into another value
chain referred to as 'small ruminants.' The pork and live pig value chains were not selected as
part of the diagnostic. Together they constitute the smallest part of the sector as measured by
contribution to GDP (3% of the livestock total). Hides and skins were examined as secondary
products during the added value portion of the livestock diagnostic.

98
Livestock Sector Analysis 2016/2017

93
94
[Link] and water

1A. Healthy and suitable grazing lands are vital for animal health and livestock
productivity, but relatively little suitable land is currently available. Only ~6% of
Tanzania’s land mass is designated for grazing (3.38 million hectares), while the true extent of
land usability remains uncertain because of overgrazing, soil degradation, and bush
encroachment. Grazing lands suitability could significantly improve with increased production
of high quality pastures. However, pasture seed shortages present a challenge to increased
production. Against an estimated demand of 100,000+ tonnes of pasture seeds a year, current
production amounts to less than 23,000 tonnes a year.99

1B. Productivity improvements in livestock are closely linked to the availability of water
of which there is currently an estimated deficit of approximately 115 billion litres per
year.100 This is significantly reducing yields and is a trigger of increased land conflicts between
arable and livestock farmers. Virtually no grazing lands benefit from irrigation. Primary water
sources, dams, and boreholes all fall short in delivering what is properly required for livestock.
The country is short of some 500 charcoal dams and 210 boreholes. In addition, climate
change is prolonging dry seasons which is worsening the situation.

Livestock opportunity #1: Scale commercial pasture production and improve water
availability for livestock

Scale the production of pasture and pasture seeds to improve meat and milk yields (through
improved grazing lands), reduce animal mortality rates, and reduce land conflicts between
crop farmers and livestock keepers:

• Pasture production: pursue a dual-production approach by private producers and

smallholder farmers (providing smallholders with training and access to critical inputs
including seeds and parcels of land (e.g., through Farmer Field Schools)). Encourage
grasses such as Buffel grass, Rhodes, Brachiaria, Juncao, Alfaalfa, Centrocema,
and Calopo *

• Pasture seed multiplication: expand seed multiplication in Government facilities and

encourage more private pasture seed companies to invest in Tanzania. Furthermore,
continue efforts to certify the first domestic pasture seed via TALIRI/TOSCI, subject
to its competitiveness against other established seed varieties

*Not exhaustive

2. Production and productivity

2A. Regional production: beef, small ruminant, and dairy production are heavily
concentrated in three zones — Northern Highlands, Central, and Lake zones — comprising
some 60% of total production. There is, however, an ongoing trend for migration to the South,
although exact numbers remain unknown.

99
The Potential of Tanzania Mainland for Production of Juncao Grass (Dr. Asimwe Lovince) 2022
100
Department of Grazing Lands, Expert Interview (Assumes 25 litres/day required for cattle and 4
litres/day required by goat and sheep, which comprises majority of water requirements)

95
 Figure 72: Cattle Population Reported by Smallholder Farmers by Region in Tanzania as of 1st August 2020
(Source: Agri-Census Report). Only cattle population depicted on map, but there is heavy overlap between small
ruminant population and cattle population

In contrast, poultry production is widely dispersed across the country. Raising poultry
does not require access to dedicated grazing and is relatively affordable for a wider range of
smallholder farmers.

96
Figure 73: Chicken Population Reported by Smallholders by Region in Tanzania as of 1st August 2020 (Source:
Agri-Census Report)

2B. Yields: with the exceptions of goat meat and mutton, per capita meat and milk yields
lag East African averages as seen on Figure 74. High yields enhance smallholder farmer
incomes and ensure widespread availability of nutritious products. Moreover, achieving
reliable, specific yield thresholds is crucial for products to be viable for market offtake. If yields
are too low, farmers may be unable to sell through formal market channels and may instead
choose at-home subsistence or sales to neighbours. Establishing all the reasons for lower
yields is challenging, but two factors stand out: reliance on indigenous breeds and production
system inefficiencies. The following sections explore the prevalence of different breeds and
their associated livestock production systems. In turn, these features can be related to ways
to improve productivity.

97
 Figure 74: Yields of milk and meat per animal (Source: FAO Stat)

2C. Breeds and productivity: breed is a critical input for animal productivity and
Tanzania’s cattle and small ruminant populations are dominated by indigenous breeds
(~95% of all animals) with lower overall average milk/meat yields. Of specialised cattle
(just ~5% of all cattle), ~74% are for dairy production, and only 26% are for beef.101

In the poultry value chain, indigenous breeds are not dominant, but they are still
widespread, accounting for ~45% of the overall chicken population (see Figure 75Figure
75).

In the majority of Tanzanian livestock literature, what is referred to in this document as ‘specialised’
101

breeds are called ‘improved’ breeds. In this Master Plan, specialised breeds refer to single-purpose,
exotic animals, and improved breeds refer to improved-indigenous breeds. Limited data exists on the
distinction between specialised and improved breeds today.

98
 Figure 75: Breakdown of different types of breeds in cattle and chicken populations102

Specialised breeds in the beef/dairy value chains and exotic breeds in the poultry value chain
enjoy higher yields than their indigenous counterparts (see Figure 76):

• In the cattle value chain, specialised beef demonstrates a significant advantage in

terms of live weight (400-800kg compared to 200-250kg for indigenous cattle). This
higher live weight translates directly into greater beef yield

• In the dairy value chain, specialised dairy cattle outperform their indigenous peers,
yielding 15-20 litres of milk a day compared to 3-5 litres produced by indigenous cattle

• In the poultry value chain, exotic broilers typically yield a live weight of around 2kg
compared with 1-1.5kg for indigenous birds and again contributing to higher meat
yields. Exotic layers are more productive (250-270 eggs a year) compared with
indigenous birds (100-150 eggs a year). This relatively wide range for live weight and
egg production in indigenous birds is because of the existence of improved indigenous
birds (e.g., Kuroiler and Sasso) that have higher yields than their purely indigenous
counterparts

Figure 76: Yields across different breeds in beef, dairy, and poultry value chains (Sources: Tanzania Livestock
Sector Analysis 2016/2017, The Citisen, MLF, TZ Poultry Value Chain Analysis; Study of Poultry Subsector in
Tanzania (Kingdom of the Netherlands))

While improved cattle and exotic chicken breeds have productivity advantages in terms
of meat, milk, and egg yields, it is important to recognise the unique strengths of
indigenous breeds. Indigenous breeds are well-adapted to the specific agro-ecological
context of Tanzania and more resistant to disease and drought. Thus, while an increased
population of specialised cattle and exotic chickens is crucial for enhancing productivity of the
livestock sector, it is equally important to explore opportunities to improve the productivity of
indigenous breeds. For example, in particularly dry areas or areas where vaccine coverage is
especially low, efforts to improve the genetics of the indigenous breed might be of greater use.
Such a dual approach could ensure a balanced and sustainable pathway to livestock farming.

Tanzania Livestock Sector Analysis 2016/2017, TZ Poultry Value Chain Analysis; Study of Poultry
102

Subsector in Tanzania (Kingdom of the Netherlands)

99
 Livestock opportunity #2: Scale and improve breeding practices

In each livestock commodity, adopt a dual strategy to enhance breeding practices by

increasing specialised, cross-bred, and exotic animals, while simultaneously improving the
genetic traits of indigenous breeds:

• Red meat and dairy: scale breeding practices in LMUs, NARCO, and NAIC to
increase the number of specialised and cross-bred animals, and strengthen breeding
practices to improve the genetics of indigenous animals through TALIRI and
community breeding programmes

• Poultry: scale the production of exotic broiler and layer chickens* through commercial
players, and strengthen breeding practices to improve genetics of indigenous
chickens, with support from TALIRI

*Consider the strong consumer preference for indigenous chicken when deciding how much
to scale production of exotic chickens

2D. Systems of production: A strong correlation exists between the types of breeds and
the predominant production systems in the red meat/dairy sector. In the red meat and
dairy sectors, smallholder farmers predominantly raise indigenous breeds under pastoral/agro-
pastoralist systems. Conversely, medium to larger scale producers are more likely to raise
improved breeds, often on commercial ranches. Pastoralist systems contribute to 2% of all red
meat/dairy raising, agro-pastoralist systems make up 95%, and commercial ranching
comprises approximately 3% (see Figure 77).

Figure 77: Dominant production systems in red meat and dairy value chains (Sources: MoLF working group)

In the poultry value chain, there is less evidence of a correlation between types of
breeds and predominant production system: smallholder farmers raise both indigenous
birds under traditional backyard or semi-intensive scavenging systems (including improved
indigenous birds such as Kuroiler and Sasso), as well as exotic birds under semi-intensive
scavenging and more intensive feeding systems. The predominant poultry meat producers are
smallholder farmers, who are collectively responsible for around ~90% of all poultry raising.
Medium to larger scale producers opt for exotic breeds, typically managing them through
100
specialised, intensive feeding systems. Commercial intensive feeding systems account for
approximately ~10% of all poultry farming.

Figure 78: Dominant production systems in poultry value chain (Sources: MoLF working group)

The systems of production in livestock rearing play a pivotal role in determining overall
productivity, encompassing crucial aspects such as feeding practices, vaccination
regimes, water availability, and shelter conditions. The pastoralist/agro-pastoralist
systems for red meat and dairy animals are characterised by informal feeding practices, lower
water availability, inconsistent vaccination regimes, and minimal shelter, especially during
adverse weather conditions. Conversely, the commercial ranching systems are characterised
by more consistency in feeding regimes, the use of dietary supplements, vaccination, fattening
schemes, and reliable shelter.

In poultry, the traditional backyard and semi-intensive scavenging systems are characterised
by minimal supplementary feed and limited attention to biosecurity measures. Conversely, the
commercial intensive feeding systems are characterised by consistent feeding practices and
vaccination regimes, and proper sheds containing water tanks for the birds.

2E. Inputs:

Improving productivity in livestock rearing relies on a multifaceted approach

encompassing four main categories of inputs:

• Animal health, which involves rigorous disease control measures, vigilant health
monitoring, and a well-structured vaccination regime

• Feeding practices, which necessitate an understanding of nutritional requirements and

the provision of high-quality, safe feed

• Breed type and genetics, where strategic selection of breeds and the implementation
of genetic improvement programmes contribute to desired traits in the herd

• Animal management practices, which include shelter and daily caretaking

101
This section will focus on inputs in the first three categories. The use of different animal
management practices are covered under the previous section relating to systems of
production.

Animal health: Disease prevalence and mortality rates across cattle and poultry birds in
Tanzania are high, largely due to vaccine deficits and inconsistent disease control
practices. There is an estimated deficit of 776 million vaccine doses/year across all livestock
today (see Figure 79). While it is difficult to determine overall mortality rates due to inconsistent
vaccine regimes and haphazard outbreaks, the mortality of indigenous calves is around ~25%,
and the mortality rate of indigenous chickens is around ~50%.103,104 The calf mortality rate in
Tanzania is lower than in neighbours such as Ethiopia, where mortality rates are closer to
31%.105 However, the indigenous chicken mortality rate in Tanzania is higher than in Ethiopia,
where the overall mortality rate of backyard chickens is estimated at ~32%.106

Specifically for cattle, the main diseases include (but are not limited to), foot and mouth
disease, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP), lumpy skin disease, East Coast fever,
and anthrax. An estimated 70% vaccine coverage rate is required to prevent a disease
outbreak amongst cattle, but it stands at only ~35% and 65% for indigenous and specialised
cattle, respectively. For small ruminants, the priority diseases include (but are not limited to):
contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) and peste des petits ruminants (PPR). Current
vaccine coverage rates amongst small ruminants are less clear. For poultry, the priority
diseases include (but are not limited to): Newcastle disease, avian influenza, and anthrax.
Given that diseases can sometimes spread much more rapidly amongst poultry, recommended
coverage rates are higher (~95%-100%) but current vaccine coverage amongst indigenous
chickens is only ~50%.

Feeding practices: The current disparity between demand and production of fodder for
cattle and small ruminants, as well as that relating to poultry feed, poses significant
challenges in meeting livestock’s nutritional requirements. Fodder production, with an
estimated demand of approximately 147 million tonnes, falls short with only 110 million tonnes
being produced today. This discrepancy is largely attributed to the limited use of supplementary
feed by smallholders, stemming both from low availability and insufficient knowledge about
fodder production. In the case of poultry feed, demand stands at around 2 million tonnes
annually (across indigenous chickens, layers, and broilers), whereas production lags at 800
thousand tonnes (see Figure 79). Given that feed constitutes a substantial 70% of overall
poultry-raising costs, many smallholders resort to homemade feed production using local
materials, often compromising feed quality. Furthermore, the primary raw materials for
commercial feed — maize, soya, and sunflower seed cake — face productivity challenges and
compete with human consumption needs, exacerbating the feed supply-demand gap. This
limited supply of commercial feed also amplifies the difficulties of scaling commercial poultry
meat production.

103
Interview with Dr. Emmanuel Nonga, Director of Veterinary Services,
104
TZ Poultry Value Chain Analysis (ECI Africa, April 2022).
105
Reducing Calf Mortality in Ethiopia (NBCI, August 2022).

Epidemiological investigation of morbidity and mortality of improved breeds of chickens in small

106

holder poultry farms in selected districts of Sidama Region, Ethiopia

102
Breeds and genetics: Overall, breeding practice standards are suboptimal, given limited
availability of parent stock and limited availability/uptake of artificial insemination (AI)
services. In the case of formalised natural breeding, the availability of high-quality parent stock
for beef and dairy cattle breeding is reportedly low, although the exact number remains
unknown. Informal livestock breeding, characterised by haphazard mating, is further hindered
by the lack of registration and identification of animals. On the artificial insemination front, the
National Artificial Insemination Centre (NAIC) serves as the primary Government body
responsible for semen production for AI services. However, the overall quality of AI services is
compromised by issues such as poor semen storage and insufficient technical expertise.
Furthermore, farmer reluctance to adopt AI, primarily stemming from unawareness of potential
benefits and concerns that AI could harm the animals, contributes to a reduced demand for
these services.

Government entities, specifically the Livestock Multiplication Units (LMUs) and the National
Ranching Company Limited (NARCO), play key roles in breeding, respectively, specialised
and improved dairy and beef cattle. While both entities predominantly employ AI for breeding,
some natural breeding methods are also utilised for multiplication purposes. However, the
current capacity of these units is constrained, partly due to the limited availability of high-quality
semen.

Figure 79: Estimated supply-demand gap for vaccines, fodder, and poultry feed (sources: expert interviews, the
Citizen, TZ Poultry Value Chain Analysis, Livestock Sector Transformation Plan 2022/23-2026/27 )

Livestock opportunity #3: Scale commercial fodder/poultry feed production

Scale production of fodder/feeds across each prioritised livestock commodity to improve

meat, milk, and egg yields per animal.

• Red meat and dairy animals: increase commercial fodder production* (including
silage and hay), to close the estimated gap of ~37 million tonnes of fodder a year.
Production can take a dual approach of smallholder farmer-led and commercial
production

• Poultry: boost the productivity of key poultry feed crops like maize, soybeans,
sunflower, and wheat and then scale blending processes to meet the approximately
1.2 million tonnes/year deficit in poultry feed production

103
 *Commercial pasture production is addressed separately in Opportunity #1, but is included
in the target of 37 million tonnes of additional fodder production required per year

Livestock opportunity #4: Boost domestic vaccine production for priority diseases

Acquire certification and increase infrastructure and human capacity to produce vaccines for
priority livestock diseases that are not yet being produced today* (e.g., East Coast fever and
foot and mouth disease).

*Only 7 out of 13 critical diseases are covered by vaccine production at Tanzania Veterinary
Laboratory Agency (TVLA), and ~60-70% of total vaccines are imported 107

2F. Cost of animal rearing compared with regional peers: When comparing production costs
across the dairy and poultry value chains, Tanzania demonstrates a competitive
advantage over regional peers, particularly Kenya.108 The cost of producing one litre of milk
and raising one chicken is lower in Tanzania than in Kenya, by ~50% and ~18% respectively.
This cost efficiency positions Tanzania favourably for boosting production in both the dairy and
poultry sectors. However, despite its lower production costs, Tanzania is among Kenya's top
export destinations for both milk and poultry meat. This is largely because milk and poultry
processing levels are much higher in Kenya (e.g., for yoghurts, cheeses, and chilled poultry
meat), leading to greater availability of processed products sourced from there. Additionally, in
the case of milk, where the cost of production is similar between Tanzania and Uganda,
Kenya's primary import market is Uganda. These trade dynamics suggest that factors beyond
production costs, such as market demand, trade agreements, and distribution networks, play
substantial roles in shaping the regional trade patterns for dairy and poultry products.

Figure 80: Dairy and poultry costs of production vs. regional peers (Sources: expert interviews, Analysis of
Marketing Performance of the Dairy Value Chain in Tanga city, Tanzania, Poultry World, Daily News)

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Livestock Sector Transformation Plan 2022/2023- 2026/2027
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Data for producing 1 kg of red meat was unavailable

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3. Added value

3A. Processed products: Low levels of processing across the poultry, red meat, milk, and
hides and skins value chains pose a significant challenge to maximising the potential
of the livestock sector in Tanzania.109 In particular, less than 10% of poultry meat, less than
5% of red meat and milk, and just 10% of hides and skins are processed. For comparison,
processing levels in Kenya are ~30%, 20%, and 15% for poultry, dairy, and beef respectively
(see Figure 81). While facilities for additional processing in certain value chains such as dairy
are available, utilisation is low: on average, dairy processing facilities are operating at around
~40% capacity.

The primary reasons for low processing levels are limited demand for processed
products, a lack of cold chain infrastructure and the low level of volumes from offtake.
Tanzanian consumer preferences tend to favour fresh, ‘warm’ meat recently slaughtered, and
boiled milk at home, as opposed to pasteurised milk or processed meats. The widespread
scarcity of refrigerators further hampers the storage and consumption of processed products.
Finally, limited viable production volumes being available for offtake to processors results in
lower levels of processing. Low production volumes in dairy, for instance, do not incentivise
farmers to bring milk to collection centres, leading them to either consume the milk at home or
sell it to their neighbours.

Figure 81: Percentage of processed products in Tanzania vs. Kenya

Additionally, hides and skins present a substantial opportunity for processing into
leather, given Tanzania's sizeable cattle and small ruminant populations. However, most
hides and skins are lost before collection due to poor quality and preservation practices.
Furthermore, more than 90% of collected hides and skins are not processed into leather,
primarily due to a lack of machinery and the associated high production costs (exported as raw
hide or wet-blue).

Processing encompasses products such as new cuts, chilled meats, pasteurized milk, and different
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end-products such as sausages, yoghurts, and cheeses

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 Livestock opportunity #5: Boost processing levels across key livestock commodities

Increase processing levels of dairy, red meat, poultry, and hides and skins to extract greater
value from raw materials:

• Dairy: encourage efforts to increase milk collection, increase cooling tank capacity
of existing collection centres with large dairy cattle populations, and promote
consumption of pasteurised milk

• Red meat: improve red meat quality for existing processing industries (e.g., via
fattening services), and incentivise investment in new red meat processing facilities

• Poultry: promote consumption of chilled/frozen products, and incentivise investment

into new poultry processing facilities

• Hides and skins: train smallholders in improved animal management practices,

increase collection levels of raw hides and skins, and promote greater hygiene and
safety in existing abattoirs

4. Marketing

4A. Production compared with consumption (including imports and exports): Tanzania has a
relatively small production-consumption gap across the poultry, dairy, and beef value
chains. It is a net importer of poultry meat and dairy products, and a modest net exporter
of beef. Specifically, Tanzania imports around 2,700 tonnes of poultry meat and approximately
11.6 million litres of milk to meet domestic consumption needs. Conversely, it exports
approximately 330 tonnes of beef. The goat meat and mutton value chains stand out as
Tanzania's largest livestock export commodities, with around 14,000 tonnes exported in 2023,
primarily to the Middle East.

Despite clear export potential, there are underutilised opportunities across all value
chains. Key export barriers include international price competition, traceability issues, and
concerns related to meat quality. In the beef value chain, for instance, the price of beef from
Pakistan is significantly lower — by more than 50% per kilogram — than that of Tanzania.
Additionally, markets in the US and EU demand stringent quality and traceability measures,
which have not been implemented at scale in Tanzania. Most of the high-end beef for
supermarkets and hotels in Tanzania is imported.

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Figure 82: Production vs. Consumption of meat and dairy, including imports and exports (Sources: Tanzania Meat
Board, Tanzania Dairy Board, OECD Database)

Livestock opportunity #6: Increase exports of key commodities, beginning with

commodities where production is already above consumption

• Beef: promote higher beef quality for domestic niche markets and export markets
(e.g., via high quality animal management practices, fattening services, and animal
traceability for specific import markets)

• Goat and mutton: increase goat meat/mutton production and quality for export
markets, given that Tanzania is already a leading exporter of these products.
Demand for red meat is expected to grow annually by ~2% until 2030 across the
Middle East (largest importer of Tanzanian goat meat/mutton) 110

4B. Systems of market access: Market access strategies for smallholders vary across
different value chains, broadly categorised into three systems: contract farming,
communal marketing, and individual farmer sales. Contract farming, involving prearranged
agreements between farmers and buyers with guaranteed offtake, is most common in poultry
production. However, this system remains relatively uncommon, with only about 5-10% of
smallholder poultry farmers participating in contracting schemes. Communal marketing, where
smallholders pool their products for collective market access, is prevalent in milk production.
Approximately 260 milk collection centres nationwide serve as key hubs for aggregating milk
production and supplying processors. Meanwhile, individual farmer sales are widespread
across all livestock value chains, notably among red meat animal producers. Pastoralists and
agro-pastoralists commonly opt for individual sales to cattle and small ruminant traders or
wholesalers rather than engaging in contract farming or participating in communal marketing
schemes.

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Global Newswire- Middle East Edible Meat Market

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 II. Opportunities
As a consequence of the full diagnostic of Tanzania's livestock sector, six opportunities across
all livestock value chains were identified, as well as four commodity-specific opportunities,
summarised below.

Opportunities across the value chain

Based on diagnostic findings, six opportunities that apply across livestock value chains can be
identified:

Summary of livestock opportunities:

1. Scale commercial pasture production and improve water availability for

livestock

2. Scale and improve breeding practices

3. Scale commercial fodder/poultry feed production

4. Boost domestic vaccine production for priority diseases

5. Boost processing levels across key livestock commodities

6. Increase exports of key commodities, beginning with commodities where

production already exceeds consumption

Figure 83: Value chain opportunities across the livestock sector

Commodity-specific opportunities

The selection of livestock commodities for commodity-specific opportunities is guided

by five criteria common across sectors — crops, livestock, and fisheries. These criteria
include contribution to agricultural GDP, growth potential, the capacity for smallholder farmers
to drive transformation, resilience and sustainability, and the potential to enhance dietary
quality (see Figure 84).

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 Figure 84: Criteria to prioritise livestock commodities

Results from the commodities prioritisation exercise are as shown below:

Figure 85: Prioritised livestock commodities

Based on these criteria, poultry is a prioritised commodity, notably excelling on

sustainability and inclusivity. Poultry's feed conversion ratio (FCR) is more than 80% lower
than that of beef and emits only about 25% of the carbon emissions produced by small
ruminant production. Furthermore, poultry raising, being often based in households, is more
open to women. Despite contributing only a fifth of livestock GDP, poultry engages the largest
number of households in the sector, totalling 2.4 million. Poultry’s overall nutrition quality is
also high relative to other animal proteins, being low in fat but rich in Vitamin B6.

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Dairy also stands out for similar reasons to poultry. The sustainability of dairy production,
measured solely by FCR, outperforms all other value chains. Moreover, dairy is recognised for
its higher inclusivity of women, compared to the rearing of beef cattle and small ruminants.
While milk has an overall lower protein count than most meats, it is a critical source of calcium
and other essential nutrients (e.g., phosphorus, zinc, and magnesium).

Despite being one of the most climate-intensive value chains, both in FCR and carbon
emissions, beef takes precedence as the largest contributor to Tanzania’s livestock
GDP, surpassing 40%. It holds a crucial place in the Tanzanian diet, constituting approximately
60% of all energy from animal meats. Tanzania boasts the second-largest population of cattle
on the continent, with approximately 35.3 million beef cattle.

Although goat meat/mutton production is particularly carbon-intensive, goat

meat/mutton are the dominant export commodities in the livestock sector, constituting
~96% of all exports. Moreover, meat from small ruminants holds a larger share in the
Tanzanian diet compared to poultry or pork.

Finally, after completing the diagnostic exercise, fodder was elevated as a key
commodity, given the strong demand for scaling fodder production nationwide, and its
high tradability potential.111 Fodder production is currently a very small contributor to
Tanzania’s GDP, but it has high growth potential and represents a promising opportunity to
employ millions of smallholders. Scaling fodder production can be achieved using climate-
smart agriculture practices, including pasture rotation and adequate time for grass regrowth.

Note: To simplify the identification of commodity-specific opportunities, beef and goat

meat/mutton are grouped into one commodity below, ‘red meat’.

Fodder includes all roughages (both wet and dry), including raw materials for pasture, silage,
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haylage, and hay

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 E. Fisheries sector

I. Situation
The role of the fisheries sector in Tanzania’s economy

The fisheries sector in Tanzania is comprised of capture fisheries and aquaculture.

Tanzania is one of the largest fishing nations in Africa, ranking in the top 10 countries on the
continent in terms of total capture fish production. Current per capita fish consumption is 8.5
kg per year and contributes 30% of daily animal protein intake. It also contributes 6.07% of
agricultural GDP and provides direct employment to 195,000 fishers and 30,000 aquafarmers.
In addition, about 4.5 million people (6.89% of total population) are employed indirectly in
various ancillary activities along the two value chains.

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1. Water management:
As illustrated in Figure 86, the practice of fish farming is more widespread in specific
regions, with the highest number of households involved in areas such as Ruvuma and
Mwanza. This suggests that fish farming is an important economic activity in regions with
significant water resources. Figure 87 illustrates that since 2011, catch fisheries have
experienced an annual growth rate of 3.4%, while aquaculture has surged at a significantly
higher rate of 18.5% per annum:

• Capture fisheries: the growth pace of the subsector has decreased for more than ten
years, mainly due to over-exploitation of ecosystems through illegal fishing practices
(e.g., blast/dynamites fishing, monofilament, beach seine, illegal gears) with 46% of
vessels being illegal.112 There is insufficient monitoring, control, and surveillance
(MCS)

• Aquaculture: there are ~30,000 earthen ponds and ~993 cages, which is low
compared to the extent of land suitable for aquaculture, including approximately 58
square kilometres for freshwater and 64,000 square kilometres for marine areas

• Protected areas: the Marine Parks and Reserves Unit (MPRU) is responsible for
establishing and managing marine protected areas (MPAs) in mainland Tanzania.
MPAs are divided into two categories, namely marine parks (multiple use areas) and
marine reserves (39 no-take areas in which extractive use is strictly prohibited). At
present, there are three marine parks, namely Mafia Island Marine Park, Mnazi Bay–
Ruvuma Estuary Marine Park, and Tanga Coelacanth Marine Park. There are 15
marine reserves, including Mbudya, Bongoyo, Sinda, Pangavini, Fungu Yasini,
Mwakatumbe, and Kendwa in Dar es Salaam, Maziwe, Kwale, Kirui, Mwewe, and
Ulenge in Tanga, and Mbarakuni, Nyororo, and Shungimbili in Mafia. Work must be
done to place at least 30% of critical habitats under protection by 2030 to meet
international obligations, including the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
ratified by Tanzania. Breeding areas in freshwaters also need protection given that
they provide over 80% of fish production.

Figure 86: Practice of fish farming by region in Tanzania

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Non-licensed vessels in 2022

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 Figure 87: Evolution of Tanzania fish production

Fisheries opportunity #1: Ensure effective management of fisheries stocks by

reinforcing monitoring, control and surveillance:

• Design and strengthen the implementation of policies to limit destructive fishing

practices (e.g., breeding seasons)

• Establish and implement a stronger enforcement mechanism system for

monitoring, controlling and surveillance (MCS) of fish stock

2. Production and productivity:

As shown in Figure 88, 2021 production was 490,000 tonnes, with capture fisheries
accounting for 96% and aquaculture for 4%.
Capture fisheries: despite comprising the majority of fish production, increase in production
from capture fisheries has slowed down over the past ~13 years (3.4% p.a. since 2011).
Production accounted for 470,000 tonnes in 2023, with 95% of the total produced by small-
scale fishers, while large companies, such as Alpha Crust, produced 5%. The production
predominantly came from freshwater sources, accounting for 82% of all production, with a few
prevalent species, such as the Nile perch comprising the majority of production. Contrarily,
production from marine water accounted for just 18%, principally consisting of species such as
tuna and tuna-like fish. There are two categories of landing sites used to unload catches from
fishing vessels: (i) those that handle fish for domestic consumption and (ii) upgraded sites
designed to handle fish for processing factories. Capture fisheries have different zones,
including territorial waters (0-12 nautical miles) with high control, deep sea, and an Exclusive
Economic Zone (EEZ):

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 • Territorial waters: although motorised boats harvest twice as much as paddle boats
(~37 kg per boat per day compared to ~20 kg), only around a third of boats are
motorised
• Deep sea fishing: Zanzibar and Tanzania mainland share the management of deep sea
fishing (fisheries located beyond 12 nautical miles)
• Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ): the management of Tanzania’s EEZ fishing is under
the mandate of the Deep-Sea Fishing Authority (DSFA). There are 49 commercial
vessels licensed in the EEZ, with only one owned by a Tanzanian stakeholder

Figure 88: Inland and marine waters fishery and aquaculture production

Aquaculture: Although fish production from aquaculture is lower than that of capture fisheries
the potential growth for aquaculture is high. Production increased from 220 tonnes in 2000 to
approximately 19,000 tonnes in 2020, with around 90% of this production occurring in fresh
water and about 10% in marine water. 86% of species are finfish (i.e., 95% tilapia and 5%
catfish and milkfish), 13% are seaweed, 1% is crab, sea cucumber and prawn. There are
two main aquaculture farming systems (i.e., pond and cages) and 95% of production takes
place in ponds compared to 45% in Uganda. The remaining 5% is produced in cages.
However, there is emergence of intensive commercial aquaculture (i.e., intensive pond/tank
culture, recirculation aquaculture systems (RAS) and in-pond raceways) in urban and peri-
urban areas in response to growing demand for fresh fish driven by rapid population growth.
The production cost of tilapia is estimated to be between US$2.20-2.40 a kilo, which is higher
compared to the US$1.49 it costs in Kenya. This higher cost is attributed to limited access to
quality inputs:
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 - Feed: there is a limited supply of feed, often of poor quality, and it is highly
priced. Feed costs constitute approximately 70% of total production cost.
Current availability of feed is ~6,000 tonnes (~2,700 metric tonnes produced by
ten local small and medium scale fish feed plants and ~3,500 metric tonnes
imported by ten feed importers) while total demand is estimated at ~26,000
tonnes.

- Fingerlings: there is a notable shortage of fingerlings, especially for mariculture

(marine aquaculture), which impacts production efficiency and costs. Currently
there are 38 hatcheries (31 private sector, 4 parastatals and 3 Government)
with a capacity to produce over 50 million fingerlings a year against estimated
demand of 120 million

- Other challenges include inadequate technical knowledge and business

skills among farmers and unreliable access to financial capital. Knowledge
and skills among farmers could be improved if there were sufficient extension
agents (i.e., one extension officer in each of the 186 districts)

Fisheries opportunity #2: Enhance access to inputs for capture fisheries and
aquaculture (feed and fingerlings) to allow sustainable intensification and expansion

• Capture fisheries: improve access to affordable, high-quality gears and boats to

improve smallholder productivity

• Aquaculture: improve access to feed and fingerlings by rehabilitating and leasing

existing Government facilities (e.g., hatcheries cages and associated technology,
including both marine and feed mill) to commercial players through public-private
partnership (PPP) arrangements

3. Added value:
Within fisheries, there are two types of processing: artisanal processing (generally on
landing sites), and export-oriented commercial processing. Export of fish and other fishery
products in Tanzania is mainly in fresh/chilled and frozen states. Some sun dried and smoked
fish are also exported to neighbouring countries. Sun drying is the main technique used for
processing sardines. New opportunities for added value include canning.
As shown in Figure 89, for artisanal processing, post-harvest losses could be as high as
50% under certain conditions, but typically range between 10% - 40%, mainly for dagaa
(due to limited improved landing sites, insufficient drying racks and other equipment issues).
More than 80% of post-harvest losses are attributable to quality issues centred around
storage and handling/processing. As to storage, there are only 90 storage facilities and 52 cold
rooms. Concerning handling and processing, artisanal processing sites are usually poorly
equipped.

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 Figure 89: Sources of post harvest loss in fisheries for sardines from Lake Victoria

Commercial processing is mainly for export markets. There are 17 fish factories in the country
(11 along Lake Victoria, 5 in the coastal area and 1 along Lake Tanganyika). Although Nile
perch fillet is ~40% more valuable than raw fish, Nile perch processing facilities operate at
~50% of their capacity, mainly due to a shortage of raw materials.

Fisheries opportunity #3: Reduce post-harvest losses to increase fish quantities

available for processing

Reduce post-harvest losses by increasing storage and cold chain facilities, upgrading fish
handling infrastructure (e.g., landing sites), and adopting innovative preservation
techniques, including for dagaa. Addressing post-harvest losses presents an opportunity to
increase production by roughly 20,000 tonnes.

Fisheries opportunity #4: Improve overall processing levels (both for domestic
consumption and export), with an added focus on seaweed:

• Plant utilisation: increase capacity utilisation of local fish processing plants (currently
<50% utilisation on average)

• Seaweed processing: increase seaweed processing for export, given that Tanzania
produces 92% of all the seaweed in Africa (the continent’s top producer)

4. Market access
About 90% of fish production is consumed domestically, while approximately 10% is
exported, mainly species like Nile Perch and dagaa. Additionally, around 2% of fish
products are imported. The infrastructure for export includes one main fish harbour and a
further harbour in Kilwa Lindi which is under construction. Moreover, there are five fish markets
(two modern international fish markets located in Dar es Salaam and Mwanza and three others
currently undergoing upgrades). While the Tanzania Bureau of Standards is responsible for
ensuring export quality, there are known challenges in adhering to standards, particularly for
products like fried sardines. This situation is compounded by a substantial demand gap,
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estimated between 400,000 to 450,000 tonnes, highlighting a significant potential for industry
growth and improvement in regulatory compliance.
As illustrated by Figure 90, regional fish trade from Tanzania is mainly conducted
informally by small traders. Market access predominantly operates through informal
channels, involving intermediaries who facilitate sales to micro, small, and medium enterprises
(MSMEs) and processors.

Figure 90: Access to market route for fisheries sector

As illustrated by Figure 91, the trade of fish from Tanzania predominantly goes to the DRC,
Rwanda and Burundi. The regional trade is dominated by freshwater species including tilapia,
Nile perch, sardines (omena/dagaa/mukene), and low volumes of catfish. International markets
include among other EU markets, China, and several Asian nations for marine items including
tuna, octopus, shrimp, lobsters, prawns, crabs, and seaweed. In addition, fish maws
(mabondo) are a lucrative industry, but not always well regulated.

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 Figure 91: Main export routes for fish from Tanzania

Fisheries opportunity #5: Construct additional fishing harbours

Complete construction at Kilwa Masoko in Lindi region, with a capacity to handle ~60,000
tonnes of fish a year to increase export capacity. Upon completion, scope new sites for
construction of additional harbours, ensuring they are large enough to accommodate larger
vessels fishing in Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).

Fisheries opportunity #6: Increase export of key commodities

Increase exports of commodities with high international market demand, namely: sea
cucumber culture, seaweed, post-larvae for prawn farming, and tilapia fillets for regional
markets.

II. Opportunities
Based on the situation, six opportunities were identified across the value chain of fisheries, as
seen below:

Summary of fisheries opportunities:

1. Ensure effective management of fisheries stocks by reinforcing monitoring,

control and surveillance

2. Enhance access to inputs for capture fisheries and aquaculture to allow

sustainable intensification and expansion

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 3. Reduce post-harvest losses to increase fish quantities available for
processing

4. Improve overall processing levels (both for domestic consumption and export)
with an added focus on seaweed

5. Construct additional fishing harbours

6. Increase exports of commodities in high-potential value chains

Commodity-specific opportunities

• Based on the same criteria as livestock, aquaculture/mariculture emerges as the

prioritised commodity - as Tanzania has the potential to boost its production by
approximately 130,000 tonnes by 2030 by taking advantage of available fresh and
marine areas. There are currently only ~30,000 earthen ponds and ~993 cages
compared to land suitable for aquaculture (i.e., ~58km² for fresh and ~64,000km² for
marine). Moreover, given Tanzania’s need to find other sources of animal protein to
cater to the demand of a growing middle class, and increasing overall levels of
population, aquaculture is one of the most environmentally and financially efficient
protein solutions (tilapia’s feed conversion ratio (FCR) is five times lower than that
of beef). The key pathways to achieve this include transformation led by commercial
farmers, transformation led by smallholder farmers, and an input-led transformation
approach.

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 [Link] and commodities to drive the
transformation
A. Overview flagships and commodities
The AMP’s impact will be achieved through the implementation of 15 flagships which
will enable the development of 20 prioritised commodities by 2030. These flagships are
ambitious development projects designed to unlock large opportunities by resolving specific
issues across the value chain. The use of specific flagships has been demonstrably pivotal in
many agriculture transformations across the world. Flagships bring dedicated focus to
resolving the most pressing issues faced by a myriad of stakeholders. By ensuring that these
flagships do not try to resolve bottlenecks across all commodities but rather focus on prioritised
ones further elevates their impact. They can unlock value from farm to fork and ensure
commercial viability across the value chain.

The 15 flagships have been designed on the basis of findings from the sectoral
diagnostic and in line with the guiding principles of the AMP. The diagnostic identified
many challenges which are limiting the growth of the sector, ranging from resource limitations
to market access difficulties. From understanding these challenges, key opportunities emerged
which can unlock significant value for the sector. Ensuring focus is paramount and hence the
flagships were designed to unlock the largest available opportunities. The design of the
flagships was informed by stakeholder engagement, experiences in Tanzania and other
countries, and by the guiding principles of the AMP. Including these guiding principles in the
design of the flagship ensures that themes such as inclusion are fundamental to all activities.
Finally, these flagships were further refined to ensure they would collectively lead to the
outcomes by 2030 set out by the ambition of this AMP. The flagships were then mapped to the
four pillars of the ambition and to the fifth pillar linked to the ‘enabling environment’ (a mapping
of the flagships and the challenges they address as well as the mapping with the guiding
principles is provided in section 6B of the Annex).

As seen in the diagnostic, 20 commodities have been prioritised across crops,

livestock, and fisheries to drive the growth of the agricultural sector. This focused
prioritisation is needed, as the country currently grows, raises, and catches more than 200
commodities. Without focus, the flagships interventions would be spread too thin and limited
impact would be achieved. The prioritisation has been informed by a robust fact base with
specific dimensions and co-constructed with key stakeholders to reflect strategic importance.
The dimensions used reflect the key guiding principles and comprise share of agricultural GDP,
potential for growth, importance to smallholders (including inclusion), resilience and
sustainability, and nutritional importance. Finally, the prioritisation has also ensured that
commodities from various categories (e.g., traditional cash crops, horticulture) are included.

The flagships have been designed specifically to support the development of these
commodities and their relationship is structured around a two-tier support system. Tier
1 relationship between a flagship and a commodity indicates that unlocking the flagship is
crucial for the support and development of a commodity. Tier 2 relationships indicate lighter,
albeit necessary support from the flagship to the commodity. This structured approach ensures
that each commodity receives tailored support, addressing its unique challenges and
maximising its development potential. Importantly, while the focus is on the prioritised
commodities, the AMP also acknowledges the development of non-prioritised commodities,

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albeit with a lesser focus and ensures flexibility to accommodate for changes in priorities (see
section 6D of the Annex).

An overview of the 15 flagships is shown below, followed by the 20 prioritised commodities.

This is followed by a matrix mapping out the Tier 1 and Tier 2 relationships between the
flagships and the commodities. Finally, distinct narratives of paddy, dairy, and aquaculture
illustrate how each commodity benefits from targeted flagship interventions, encapsulating a
focused strategy towards achieving sustainable agricultural advancement.

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 B. Impact of flagships and commodities
The flagships will unlock the growth of the prioritised commodities, which will lead to a
10% annual growth rate of the agricultural sector by 2030. The growth will translate in an
increase of agricultural GDP of US$13 billion (i.e., value generated from crop, livestock and
fisheries production), with an additional increase of ~US$0.5 billion when considering the
positive feedback loops on the rest of the economy (i.e., increase in demand of agricultural
produce when the overall economy grows). This is because the AMP will also lead to an
increase of US$7 billion across the rest of the economy, for example in processing, trade, and
infrastructure. It should be noted that agricultural produce processing will double to reach US$3
billion and net exports will grow fivefold to reach ~US$5 billion. The growth of the prioritised
commodities is detailed in section 4E.

Figure 92: Total growth of the Agricultural GDP in absolute and relative value as a result of the AMP

The AMP’s impact goes beyond the growth of agricultural GDP as it will lead to an
increase of smallholder income of ~25%. It is critical to support rural development through
the AMP as an increase in smallholder income will directly translate in a reduction of people
living in poverty of 7 million (using the World Bank’s international poverty line). This increase
in income, accompanied by higher production of food, will also reduce the share of
undernourished people from 25% of the population to 15%. Finally, a shift will start to appear
in labour composition as the share of people working in the agriculture sector will drop from
65% to 60%. This is, however ,a lagging indicator. Further decreases will take place beyond
2030.

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Figure 93: Increase in smallholder income and decrease in people living in poverty as a result of the AMP

Figure 94: Decrease in prevalence of undernourishment as a result of the AMP

Achieving this growth of the sector will require focus from the Government to
implement the flagships and a public investment of US$5.5 billion. This cost needs to be
translated into a government budget and will predominantly come from the MoA and the MoLF,
but also partially from the Ministry of Trade and Industry and other sectoral lead Ministries.
This budget could be supported by development partners through various financing
mechanism (e.g., P4R, project financing, and direct budget support). The total cost of the AMP
has been designed to be in line with budgetary constraints to ensure the government has the
adequate resources to implement it. On top of the investments from the government, the plan
identified the need for at least US$3.5 billion of investment from the private sector. This has
been derived from discussions with existing and potential private sector players assessing

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what would be needed to unlock certain investments. Given the disperse nature of the private
sector, it is critical to consider this number as an aspiration, but not as a precise target.

Comparing the AMP’s benefits and costs allows to derive the GDP benefit-cost ratio of
the plan which is 3.5. This means that for every dollar the government invests, it will lead to
an increase of GDP of US$3.50 by 2030. This analysis has been made for each flagship to
assess their effectiveness to generate GDP growth. This has been complemented by a similar
analysis to assess the impact of the individual flagships on increasing smallholder income,
reducing poverty and decreasing undernourishment. This breakdown is key to understanding
the impact of the flagships at a granular level. Benefit-cost ratios can be helpful to prioritise
and monitor flagships but should not be interpreted without taking context into account.
Interdependencies between flagships are not captured in such ratios. For example, a flagship
on seeds might have a lower direct impact on GDP improvement but will be critical in ensuring
sufficient productivity for processing. Similarly, the benefit-cost ratio has been calculated up to
2030. Hence certain flagships like irrigation, which tend to be large-scale infrastructure projects
with longer-term returns, would result in a relatively understated benefit-cost ratio. The GDP
benefit-cost ratio of irrigation is only 1.6 by 2030 but rises to 4.4 when this view is extended to
2040. It is essential to use these benefit-cost ratios in context to capture the nuance of the
impact of the flagships.

Implementing the flagships will result in achieving the ambitions of the AMP by 2030
and setting it up for success towards Vision 2050. If the government were to be able to
raise additional funds, or increase the investment from the private sector, it could further
increase on these targets.

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 C. Deep dive into the 15 flagships of the AMP
This section provides an overview of each flagship, setting out context, key stakeholders,
initiatives and costing, commodities in scope, priority regions, risks and their mitigations, and
evolution beyond 2030. A more detailed perspective of each flagship is included in the Annex,
including annual targets and cost. For each initiative of the flagship, the cost has been
estimated. These have been categorized in 3 categories: Government spent, Tax breaks and
tax incentives, private investment.

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 D. Deep dives into the 20 commodities
A detailed analysis has been done for the 20 prioritized commodities to assess their growth
potential as a result of the 15 flagships. This has been summarized on a one-pager per
commodity with the context, targets, interventions, suitability, risks and mitigations, and
evolution beyond 2030. For certain commodities, two targets have been provided, one which
is needed to achieve the ambitions 2030 and another one which shows a potential further
increase as a result of additional focus and investment. The methodology of the suitability
analysis can be found in Annex (6H: Crop suitability analysis).

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155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
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 Animal protein

Commodity 16: Aquaculture

1. Context
• Aquaculture contribu+on to fis heries GDP is low (~4%), providing direct employment to 30k
aquafarmers . However, it is growing fast , i.e., from 220 MT in 200 0 to ~30k MT in 2022, with
90% occurring in fresh water and ~10% in marine water. 86% of s pecies are finfish (i.e., 95%
+lapia and 5% caaish and milkfish), 13% are seaweed , 1% is crab, sea cucumber and prawn.
Farming systems mainly include ponds and cage s , with ponds accoun7ng for 95% of
produc7on (i.e., ~30k earthen ponds) vs ~45% in Uganda and cages making up the remaining
5% (i.e., ~993 cages). Poten7al is high with ~58 km² for freshwater and 64k km² for marine
areas suitable for aquaculture.
• Challenges : limited produc+vity and higher cost of produc+on than neighbors ( produc+on cost
of +lapia is es+mated at 2.2 to 2.4 USD / kg vs 1.49 USD in Kenya) due to limited access to
inputs: i) limited supply of feed (i.e., ~6k tons 1 available vs ~26k tons of demand), oeen of poor
quality, and priced high (~70% of total cost), ii) shortage of quality fingerlings , esp. for
mariculture, with 38 hatcheries 2 with a capacity to produce over 50 Mn fingerlings p.a. vs a
demand of 120 Mn, iii) lack of technical knowledge and bus iness skills among farmers.
Leveraging fis h proces sor capacity presents an opportunity to enhance processing and boost
medium -term exports , dependent on cold chain infrastructure improvements .
Min. required for 10% Previous
2. Targets
Ag, GDP contribu7on, M$ Produc7vity, feed Produc7on, ‘000 MT
conversion ra7o 1
610 2,0 150
1,5

80 30

2022 2030 2022 2030 22/23 … 2030/31

3. Interven7ons 4. Fish farming prac7ce by region (2019/20)

• Improve access ibility to suitable lands for
aquaculture (flagship 14) Number of Highest High Moderate
• Train aquaculture farmers on climate smart households Low Lowest
prac7ces and monitoring of wate r quality (flagship
3)
Kagera Mara
• Mobiliz e aquaculture farmers into new groups (es p.
coopera+ves) to enhance acces s to quality inputs Mwanza
Simiyu Arush a
and markets (flagship 4) Geita
Shinyan ga
• Set up a one stop shop to streamline licensing Kilimanjaro
proces s (flagship 7) Kigoma Manyara Pemba No rth
• Accelerate the development of commercial
Tab ora Tan ga Pemba So uth
aquaculture ac7vi7es , e.g., by providing equipment Sin igid a Unguja North
tax breaks (e.g., cages), increas ing access to high - Dodoma
Katavi Unguja South
quality inputs (feed and fingerlings) by building,
Dar Es Salaam
rehabilita+ng and leasing government facili7e s (e. g., Pwani
hatcheries ) and exploring aquaculture technologies Ru kwa Mbeya Iringa
through PPP arrangements (flagship 8)
Songwe Mor ogoro
• Increase accessibility to exis7ng fish infrastructure
Njo mbe Lindi
processing and build one for seaweed (flagship 9)
• Increase availability of cold -chain storage and
transport infrastructure to prevent PHL and ensure Ru vu ma Mtwara
future exports (flagship 10)
• Support aquaculture extension service s 3 by
strengthening Aquaculture Developme nt Centres
(ADCs) by rehabilita+ng and expanding exis+ng ADCs
and establishing new ADCs in strategic loca+ons and
establishing Aquafarmer Field Schools to foster
farmer to farmer extension of best management
prac+ces of aquaculture and enhancing research on
aquaculture, the blue economy (flags hip 1 2)
5. Risks and mi7ga7ons 6. Evolu7on beyond 2030

High resource use and wate r degrada7on from scaled Scale training on climate -smart prac7ces to all
produc7on > adopt climate -smart aquaculture s uch as aquaculture farmers, to improve climate res ilience/
water -saving techniques, selec+ve breeding and energy - decrease resource intensity as produc+on increases
efficient feed technology Enhance the processing capacity and export poten7al of
Low uptake of new breeding services from farmers , due aquaculture to meet the rising demand in regional
markets as well as in the Middle East and Europe 174
to unfamiliarly and/or apprehension > rais e awarenes s of
benefits of improved breeds (e.g., extension agents)
1. ~2.7k MT produced by 10 local small / medium scale fish feed plants and ~3.5k MT imported by 10 feed importer ; 2. private
sector: 31, parastatals: 4
and g overnment: 3 ; 3. Feed/ weight-Baseline produc+vity and increases in produc+vity will depend on animal breed/ exacterven+ons
int prov ided; using
FAO avg . yield as baseline and es+ma+ng 30% produc+vity improvements;ensuring
3. a minimum of one officer per district across all 186 districts
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 E. The AMP’s regional perspective
The AMP is a national strategy but its implementation will require close collaboration with local
government authorities for successful implementation. In addition to setting clear guidelines
for collaboration, it is critical that the AMP is internalised by local government authorities, and
that detailed implementation plans are prepared together with them. This section provides an
overview of key flagships and commodities by region to help guide this cascading exercise. In
itself it is no substitute for the vital work still to be done with local government authorities to
develop regional plans that both build on the AMP but are also guided by local priorities and
specificities.

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 5. Implementation
A. Governance
Effective governance of Tanzania’s Agriculture Master Plan (AMP) will be essential to
underpin success. This means robust coordination and implementation mechanisms
are required. Inter-ministerial collaboration, together with the orchestration of various
stakeholders including local government authorities, will be especially important if the
ambitious targets that have been set are to be achieved. A multi-layered governance structure
can ensure cohesive efforts across the agricultural sector.

A well-designed governance framework is also essential to facilitate flagship

interventions for prioritised commodities. Addressing the challenges within commodity
chains, such as inconsistent produce quality and availability, is crucial for attracting
investments. For instance, a lack of sufficient quality produce all through the year can deter
investments in processing facilities. A governance model that adopts an agri-industrial
perspective and establishes commodity compacts across food systems can help overcome
these obstacles, streamlining supply chains and enhancing agricultural output.

The Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries, supported by
the Agriculture Transformation Office (ATO), will spearhead the development of this
governance structure. This initiative will incorporate valuable insights from Tanzania's
experiences and global best practices, aiming to create a robust framework that addresses the
unique challenges of Tanzania's agricultural sector.

Once established, the governance framework will enable the ATO to play a crucial role
in the coordination and effective implementation of the AMP. Strategic alignment of efforts
across the agricultural sector can foster sustainable development and achieving the AMP's
ambitious goals.

B. Financing
To implement the AMP effectively, Government financing is paramount. This will require
annual estimates and these have been made for every initiative in each flagship, with clear
differentiation between direct Government investment and tax incentives. Such meticulous
financial planning is crucial for aligning the AMP's requirements with the Government's annual
budget cycles across relevant Ministries. The Agriculture Transformation Office (ATO) will play
a pivotal role in translating these financial needs into specific budget line items, in collaboration
with entities like the Department of Planning and Policies (DPP). This process will also involve
evaluating the most suitable financing mechanisms—such as Programme-for-Results (P4R),
project financing, and winning the support of Development Partners drawing on lessons from
past experiences to inform decision-making.

Moreover, ensuring continuity of funding for ongoing projects and programmes is vital.
In particular, it is important seamlessly to integrate financing commitments from the pillars of
the Agriculture Sector Development Programme II (ASDP II) with the AMP. This integration is
facilitated through a comprehensive mapping between ASDP II and the AMP, ensuring a
smooth transition and sustained financial support for agricultural development initiatives (see
below).

182
Table 9: Link between the AMP and the ASDP II priority investment areas

ASDP II Priority Investment Areas Agriculture Master Plan

Component 1: Sustainable water and land use management

1. Land use planning and watershed Flagship 14 focuses on developing comprehensive

management land management systems, to strengthen land use
planning

2. Irrigation infrastructure development Flagship 1 supports both the development of new

irrigation schemes, their management, and the
3. Irrigation scheme management and strengthening of existing schemes
operation

4. Water sources development for Flagship 6 includes the development of water

livestock and fisheries sources (bore holes) for livestock in community
small communal ranches

5. Promote climate-smart agriculture Flagship 3 focuses on transitioning farmers to

(CSA), technologies, and practices sustainable agriculture practices

Component 2: Enhanced agricultural productivity and profitability

1. Strengthening agricultural Flagship 12 aims to strengthen and scale

extension, training, and promotion/info extension services (both through physical and
services digital services)

2. Improvement of access to crops, Flagship 4 supports smallholders’ access to inputs

livestock, and fisheries inputs and by organising them into groups (e.g., cooperatives,
health services associations) and developing the agri-SME
ecosystem that will support smallholder groups

3. Research and development Flagship 2 will support the acceleration of

Government seed production and support private
seed producers (including through R&D)

Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land

under restoration to improve resilience

Flagship 5 includes livestock research for creation

of a new improved indigenous cattle breed

Flagship 12 will support extension services to more

effectively disseminate latest agricultural
technologies and train smallholders in climate-
smart practices

4. Strengthen and promote agricultural Flagship 4 supports smallholders’ access to inputs

mechanisation (including mechanisation, such as tractors, hand
hoes, fishing gears, etc.) through development of
the farmer-facing SME ecosystem, and
construction of mechanisation hubs for
smallholders to purchase/lease equipment

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5. Food and nutrition security Prioritisation of commodities included food security
improved) and nutrition to increase the availability of proteins
(dairy, poultry, aquaculture), overall nutrient intake
(fruits and vegetables), and the availability of
stable crops (wheat, maize)

Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early

warning systems, enhancing food security

Component 3: Commercialisation and added value

1. Develop market access for all Flagship 4 supports smallholders’ access to inputs
priority commodities by organising them into groups (e.g., cooperatives,
associations) and developing the agri-SME
2. Develop market access for fisheries ecosystem that will support smallholder groups
and livestock products.
Flagship 10 supports facilitation of access to
international markets

3. Development of processing and Flagship 9 promotes the development of

added value for crop, livestock, and processing facilities and capacity for prioritized
fisheries products commodities

Component 4: Sector enablers, coordination, M&E

1. Policy and Regulatory Framework Flagship 7 supports the development of the

and Business Environment business environment, including mitigating the
Improvement largest barriers to specifically doing agri-business
(including export)

2. Strengthening organisational and Flagship 4 supports smallholders’ access to inputs

technical capacities of existing and by organising them into groups (e.g., cooperatives,
new small-scale producer, trade and associations) and developing the agri-SME
processing farmer organisations and ecosystem that will support smallholder groups
cooperatives movement

3. Promote and strengthen gender Flagship 2 supports young people and women to
inclusiveness in the agricultural sector become successful seed entrepreneurs

Flagship 4 supports youth-led agri-SMEs

(especially through the BBT programme) and
emphasises formation of female groups (e.g.,
cooperatives)

Flagship 12 emphasises ongoing refreshers and

capacity building for women working as extension
agents, who typically experience less opportunities
for ongoing training

Flagship 14 supports increased land access, with

an emphasis on access for women and young
people

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 4. Improve and strengthen vertical AMP flagships are designed considering current
[from (President's Office - Regional governance structures and opportunities to
Administration and Local Government establish new coordination mechanisms. The ATO
(PO-RALG) to Regional Secretariats will also support increased coordination across
(RSs) and Local Government various entities for implementation of the AMP.
Authorities (LGAs)] and horizontal
coordination between Agricultural
Sector Lead Ministries (ASLMs)

5. Improved capacity and agricultural Flagship 11 supports better data collection through
data collection and management robust digital platforms
systems
ATO will support the capacity of the Government
regarding data collection and management

6. Management Capacities and N/A

Systems Improvement

7. Develop Agricultural Sector M&E ATO will support the M&E framework of the
System Government for the AMP

8. Improvement of capacity at all levels ATO will support some targeted capacity building

9. Improvement of Information and Flagship 11 will support the digitalisation of farmer

Communication Technologies (ICT) for registration and the entire agriculture ecosystem
Agricultural Information Services and (including extension services, real-time market
Systems information, etc.)

10. Provide microfinance services Flagship 13 supports access to a variety of

financing mechanism for smallholders

Private sector investment is just as important for the transformation envisioned by the AMP.
While Government financing lays the foundation, attracting private sector investment into the
country's food systems is essential for achieving the plan's ambitious goals. The Government,
supported by the ATO, is tasked with creating an enabling environment that stimulates private
investment, acknowledging that while such investments are beyond direct Government control,
they should be actively encouraged and supported to foster a vibrant agricultural sector.

C. The AMP’s contribution to Tanzania’s existing commitments

The Agriculture Master Plan (AMP) of Tanzania is designed to play a central part within
the nation's broader economic transformation, aiming for seamless alignment with both
current and evolving national visions. The vision for food systems by 2050 is being aligned
with the broader goals set out by the Planning Commission, ensuring objectives are in line with
the overarching vision being developed for the country. This strategic alignment extends to
historical frameworks as well, with the AMP ensuring coherence with the Five-Year
Development Plan III (FYDP III), a pivotal document that outlines the country's development
trajectory. The details of this integration are comprehensively outlined in the Annex.

Internationally, Tanzania has pledged its commitment to several pivotal agreements that
shape global food systems, necessitating their reflection within the AMP. These include
the Malabo Declaration from the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme
(CAADP), the United Nations' pathways for sustainable food systems, and the commitments
185
made at Dakar 2. The AMP meticulously incorporates the mandates and goals of these
international frameworks and commitments, thus ensuring its strategies are not only locally
relevant but also globally responsive. This alignment underscores Tanzania's dedication to
fulfilling its international obligations, with the Annex detailing how the AMP addresses the
requirements and commitments stipulated by these international agreements.

Furthermore, Tanzania's commitment to a significant reduction in emissions –

targeting a 30-35% decrease by 2030 from a business-as-usual scenario – has played
a critical role in shaping the AMP. This ambitious goal, outlined in the Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDC), necessitates the implementation of mitigation measures across several
sectors, including agriculture, livestock, coastal, marine, fisheries, and land use. The AMP is
intricately aligned with these measures, ensuring that agricultural practices contribute
effectively to the country's climate objectives. This alignment not only highlights the AMP's
environmental stewardship, but also positions the plan as a key instrument in achieving
Tanzania's broader climate targets, as detailed in the Appendix.

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 D. Six key elements to ensure successful implementation of the AMP
Learnings from other transformations as well as from experiences in Tanzania were
considered in the design to ensure successful implementation. A recap of the key
elements can be found below:

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 6. Annex
A. Examples of successful agricultural transformation
Costa Rica113

Costa Rica is a South American country of roughly 5 million people with a diversified
agriculture and export-reliant economy. The country’s exports experienced uninterrupted
growth from the 1980s onwards. In 2014, agriculture and food exports made up 35% of those
exports, but the country has been branching out to medical and technology exports as well.
Agriculture comprises ~5% of GDP and employs ~13% of the population. The main agricultural
products are green coffee (18% of total harvested area in 2019), oil palm fruit (~15%) and
sugar cane (12%). Chicken, cattle, pigs and horses are also an important part of the agricultural
landscape.

Starting in the 1980s, Costa Rica started facing numerous challenges in both its
economy and agriculture. The import substitution model that the country had been following
since the 1960s had been exhausted by the 1980s. Moreover, between 1980 and 1982, the
economy had contracted by 9.4% and the proportion of Costa Ricans living in poverty had
risen by 20% (to 54%). Oil price increases, a quadrupling of external debt and decreases in
FDI further exacerbated the problem. These conditions required the opening up of the
economy, including its agriculture.

The reforms of the 1980s moved Costa Rica from import substitution to trade
liberalisation. For agriculture specifically, the goals were to grow and increase diversification
and sophistication. The reforms led to increased deregulation, privatisation and the reduction
of trade barriers. The agricultural sector also saw institutional reforms. Externally, the country
had joined GATT and WTO, among others. Some of the product-specific interventions
included:

• Coffee: a focus on specialty coffee, the setting up of the ICAFE industry association,
sustainability-related branding, the establishment of the National Fund for Coffee
Stabilisation, the development of cooperatives

• Banana: the creation of the National Banana Corporation, which led to significant
investment in R&D, improved marketing support and financial support

• Pineapple: trade liberalisation (including eliminating price controls, removing export

taxes, reducing tariffs), increase in land use for pineapple (7x in 1990-2013), increase
in productivity of that land, FDI (50% of plantations owned by foreign investors), new
institutions, tax exemptions, value chain development

• Livestock: land use changes, a focus on sustainability and climate change mitigation
(e.g., One Health, Livestock Plus programmes), increase in silvopasture (combining
trees with agricultural production).

As a result of these efforts, agricultural output increased dramatically, particularly for

non-traditional exports and livestock products. For example, pineapple’s share in

Focus Economics, World Bank, Trading Economics, OECD, Global Coffee Report, World Property
113

Rights Organisation, FAO, FAOSTAT, UNDP, Washington Post

189
agricultural output went from 9% to 24% between 1995 and 2013; livestock increased from 17
to 27%, palm oil doubled, and dairy increased by 105%.

Ghana114

Ghana is a West African country with a population of >30 million and a growing
economy focused on gold, crude oil and cocoa exports (together making up 80% of all
exports). The country has experienced continued growth for over 30 years, including in in the
late 1980s/early 1990s when the rest of SSA was in a slump. In recent years, growth has
accelerated even further and poverty has halved from 1990s levels, partly driven by the
discovery of oil, but also thanks to economic reforms executed from 1984 onwards. Agriculture
is a major part of this economy, accounting for 20% of GDP and 52% of employment. The main
products are cocoa (18.4% of total area in 2019), maize (17.6%) and cassava (12.8%), with
chicken, goats, sheep and cattle being the main livestock.

The agricultural sector was not, however, without its challenges. Among these was the
pricing model. Until the 1970s, the agricultural pricing model ended up transferring much of
the agricultural income to Government revenue (through taxes), urban consumers (through
lower food prices) or industry (through cheap raw material and other inputs). These conditions
nearly killed the sector; agriculture taxation was inversely related to growth during this period
and there was a decrease in total factor productivity.

The key changes to transform the sector began with the Economic Rehabilitation
Projects and included reform in cocoa and non-cocoa value chains. The ERP changed
the pricing policy, reduced tariffs and reduced input prices, among other interventions. The
agriculture-specific interventions can be categorised as being for cocoa and for non-cocoa
products:

• Cocoa: increased use of fertiliser, promotion of hybrid varieties, increase in farmer

producer prices, improved quality control, improved and more efficient export
management, Ghana’s strong credit internationally, the establishment and restructuring
of the Cocoa Marketing Board, which is involved in each stage of the value chain

• Non-cocoa: the Government launched four mutually complimentary programmes for

the non-cocoa sector in recognition of the limited attention the sector had historically
received.

o Agricultural mechanisation services centres (increased mechanised area per

farmer to 3.2 ha by 2010)

o Fertiliser subsidy programme (increased average fertiliser use by 15% in 2008-

19)

o Block farm programme (increased farmer incomes by 17%, rice and soyabean
productivity by 100%)

o National Food Buffer Stock Company (decreased price volatility for major crops)

Focus Economics, IFPRI & IIID, Global Food Policy Report, World Bank, Institute of Development
114

Studies, Feed the Future & IFDC, FAO

190
The result of these efforts was the increase in land productivity (grew ~160% in 1990-
2010) and labour productivity (doubled). In the case of cocoa specifically, the increase in
farmers’ share of price increased production significantly.

Indonesia

Indonesia is a large Southeast Asian country with a population of >267 million with a
diverse agricultural sector that remains critical to the overall health of the economy,
despite declining importance. Agriculture constitutes 13.5% of GDP and 33% of
employment, with the main crops being oil palm fruit (31% of total harvested area in 2019),
paddy rice (22.5%) and maize (11.9%). Rubber, coconuts and cocoa beans are also important
agricultural products. Chickens, ducks, goats and sheep are the main livestock.

One of the key concerns of Indonesia’s agricultural sector has been maintaining food
self-sufficiency. While self-sufficiency has been a major policy goal for some time, previous
attempts had varying degrees of success. In 2015, the Strategic Plan of the Ministry of
Agriculture was instituted in order to reinforce those efforts. The Plan focused on five key
staples: rice, maize, soyabean, sugar, and beef, with measures introduced for a few other
commodities.

The key initiatives introduced by the Government revolve around rice, palm fruit,
finance and ICT in agriculture.

• Rice: significant input intensification (7000 varieties have been identified and
conserved since the 1970s) and R&D, increased support for fertiliser use through
extension and input delivery programmes, the introduction of ecological technologies
(pest management), expansion of irrigation (around 84% of rice is grown under
cultivation) and scale-up of mechanisation

• Palm fruit: introduction of the Nucleus Estate and Smallholder programme (a type of
contract farming) to include smallholders in palm fruit production, palm plantation
revitalisation, removal of tax on exports to incentivise production.

• Finance: the establishment of the Bank Rakyat Indonesia specifically to provide credit
to rice farmers. BRI then evolved to provide rural microfinance and consequently into
a commercial bank.

• ICT: introduced the Farmer Empowerment through Agricultural Technology and

Information (FEATI) project to support the achievement of having 1 extension worker
per agricultural village. Tools provide technical information, pricing information, advice
on agriculture commodities, variety selection, weather information, plant diseases, and
fertiliser dosage, among others.

• Other: the Government focused its financing on the agricultural sector (even during
times of limited incentives) and input subsidies

As a result of these efforts, self-sufficiency was achieved in 2019 for rice, maize, shallots
and chilies. Rice especially showed significant growth in productivity to achieve the highest
yield in Asia. In oil palm fruit, the efforts led to 40% of production done by smallholders.

191
 B. Overview of flagships across the value chain and the link to the guiding
principles
The guiding principles are reflected in the AMP’s flagships, approach and governance

Principle Flagships Description

High impact 5. Red meat and Consider stable demand and future
and demand- dairy demand potential as a key factor in
driven 6. Traditional cash identifying priority commodities
and major crops
8. Commercial
activity for priority
commodities

Across flagships Prioritise AMP flagships, initiatives,

commodities, and regions to focus on
highest impact interventions, also
considering cost effectiveness
Implementation- Across flagships Design flagships and initiatives in the
focused AMP to be actionable, with clear
stakeholder accountability, timelines for
implementation, and KPIs to track
progress
Market-led 1. Irrigation Partner with private sector to achieve
share of irrigation target
3. Soil health Encourage private sector facilitation of
financing of regenerative ag. practices
through carbon markets
4. Smallholder Encourage private sector to play a critical
organisation and role to provide access to inputs and to
SMEs markets for smallholders, and to support
incubation of new agri-SMEs
5. Red meat and Facilitate red meat and dairy offtake
dairy offtake agreements in community small ranches
with private sector; private sector will
supply and specify critical inputs during
animal raising
7. Mitigate barriers Minimise time/cost of starting and
to ag.-business operating an ag.-business, including
export, and attract new private capital
through PPP agreements
8. Commercial Develop selected commodities through
activity for priority private sector expansion
commodities
9. Processing Focus on large-scale processing activities
in agro-processing zones
10. Regional and Develop cold chain and other
international export infrastructure by the private sector and
with PPPs

192
Principle Flagships Description
13. Access to Private finance providers will serve
finance smallholders and SMEs to enable the
agribusiness ecosystem
Inclusion 2. Seed production Provide support for young people to
become successful seed-entrepreneurs
4. Smallholder Focus on supporting women cooperatives
organisation and and associations, and maintain dedicated
SMEs role for women and young people in BBT
and agri-SME incubation
5. Red meat and Emphasise support for women dairy
dairy offtake farmers to boost dairy productivity and
offtake
6. Traditional cash Support young people to enter the cash
and major crops crops business
11. Digitalisation Encourage and support young people to
play a critical role in the digital
transformation
12. Extension Consider goals for creating a more
gender-balanced workforce when hiring
additional agents and provide training on
specific needs of women smallholders
14. Land availability Support women and young people with
and access accessing titles for their farms
Collaborative Across flagships Develop the AMP through a consultative
approach process involving numerous and diverse
stakeholders to identify relevant roles and
responsibilities for all type of stakeholders
Resilience and 1. Irrigation Increase irrigation to limit impact of
sustainability droughts
3. Soil Conduct soil mapping and subsequent
action plans to place additional land under
resilient regenerative agriculture practices
13. Access to Provide insurance services to support
finance farmers for production failure

15. Early warning Develop warning system to limit impact of

system disasters and increased food reserves to
mitigate for loss of production
Better nutrition 4. Smallholder Focus on organisation of horticulture
organisation and farmers, given horticulture’s high
SMEs nutritional value

5. Red meat and Increase production of milk, which has

Dairy offtake significant nutritional benefits (critical
vitamins and minerals)

193
Principle Flagships Description
8. Commercial Emphasise nutritional value as one of the
activity for priority key criteria used prioritise the
commodities commodities (e.g., poultry and
aquaculture for boosted protein
consumption)
Based on 5. Red meat and Research and innovate to improve the
Tanzania’s dairy offtake indigenous cattle breed to maximise yield
strengths potential given Tanzania’s specific agro-
ecological context
6. Traditional cash Consider the potential competitive
and major crops advantage of Tanzania as one of the key
factors used to identify the priority
commodities
Scale the AGCOT model, given proven
7. Mitigate barriers track record of success using the cluster
to ag.-business model, which is specific to Tanzania’s
regions and business environment
Replicates Across flagships Design the flagships with close
proven models consideration of successful
transformations both in Tanzania as well
as in other countries
Organisational Across flagships Co-create AMP with diverse stakeholders,
sustainability set-up and capacitate the ATO for
immediate implementation, and identify
clear accountabilities for the flagships to
ensure organisational sustainability
Figure 95: Illustration of the linkage between guiding principles and the design of the AMP

194
195
196
C. Detailed flagships
2030 Ambition

197
Flagship 1: Expand area under irrigation to 1.2Mha and build irrigator’s organisations
capacity with a focus on seed production and priority commodities

Context:

Tanzania's agricultural sector faces challenges due to its heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture,
with only a small fraction of its arable land currently under irrigation. Presently, Government-
led irrigation covers merely 0.7 million hectares out of a potential 29.4 million hectares,
predominantly utilising traditional, inefficient methods such as manually dug canals and
furrows. These methods exhibit low water efficiency, reliability, and entail high maintenance
costs. Despite some improvements in irrigation infrastructure, notably concrete-lined canals,
many systems remain functional only during rainy seasons, exacerbating the dependence on
erratic rainfall patterns.

Challenges hindering irrigation expansion:

Several factors impede the expansion of irrigation in Tanzania, limiting both Government and
private sector investments. Chief among these challenges is the limited Government budget
allocated to finance large-scale irrigation infrastructure projects, which are capital-intensive
and entail lengthy payback periods. Additionally, the absence of a clear baseline assessment
of the current state of irrigation—encompassing both Government-led and private-led
initiatives—hampers effective progress tracking, resource planning, and prioritisation of critical
rehabilitation and expansion projects. Furthermore, the absence of a robust Public-Private
Partnership framework constrains the leveraging of private investment and participation in the
development and operation of irrigation schemes.

Barriers to private sector investment:

The private sector faces additional hurdles in investing in irrigation, including ambiguity
surrounding water use rights and inconsistency in enforcement, inadequate institutional
capacity for implementing and maintaining irrigation systems, and insufficient farmer capacity
to operate and manage irrigation infrastructure. Moreover, sustainable funding sources for the
maintenance and operation of existing systems remain elusive, further deterring private sector
involvement. The lack of clarity on water rights and enforcement mechanisms presents a
further deterrent to private sector investment, compounding the challenges faced in expanding
irrigation coverage in Tanzania.

Importance of irrigation and sustainable development:

Despite these challenges, the imperative to expand irrigation in Tanzania is paramount.

Increasing irrigation coverage holds the potential to boost agricultural productivity, enhance
resilience to climate shocks, ensure food security, and improve the income of smallholder
farmers. Prioritising irrigation for specific purposes, such as seed production, can further
amplify its impact on agricultural development. High-quality seeds are crucial for enhancing
crop yields and ensuring food security. By prioritising irrigation for seed production, Tanzania
can strengthen its agricultural value chain and foster sustainable agricultural development.
However, any expansion in irrigation must prioritise sustainability, focusing on investments in
sustainable water management practices and technologies to foster a resilient agricultural
198
sector in Tanzania. Addressing the existing challenges and fostering partnerships between the
Government and the private sector are crucial steps toward realising the full potential of
irrigation and ensuring the sustainable development of Tanzania's agriculture.

Objective and KPIs:

This flagship aims to significantly enhance agricultural productivity and climate resilience in
Tanzania by increasing the area under irrigation to 1.2 million hectares. To achieve this goal,
both Government-led and private sector initiatives will play a pivotal role. Government-led
projects are slated to add 375 kha of new land under irrigation, while the private sector will
contribute an additional 75 kha. Additionally, 35 kha of traditional irrigation systems will
undergo rehabilitation, and 13,000 boreholes will be installed, covering an area of 208 kha to
ensure reliable access to groundwater for irrigation purposes.

In parallel, this flagship seeks to unlock and boost private sector investment in irrigation,
creating an enabling environment through policy reforms and regulatory frameworks. Through
targeted capacity building programmes, local communities and smallholder farmers will be
empowered to engage in irrigation schemes, fostering inclusive and resilient agricultural
development. Irrigator's organisations will play a crucial role in the maintenance and operation
of irrigation schemes. Investments in irrigation will be prioritised for seed production and other
priority commodities, aiming to strengthen the agricultural value chain and enhance the
resilience of Tanzania's agricultural sector.

Through a collaborative approach and strategic investments, this flagship aims to unlock the
full potential of irrigation as a catalyst for sustainable agricultural development and economic
growth in Tanzania, leveraging private sector resources and expertise to complement
Government efforts.

The following are the key performance indicators (KPIs) and their yearly breakdowns until
2030/31 to track the progress and impact of this flagship:

199
200
Initiatives:

A. Government-led A.1. Conduct a comprehensive baseline study to assess the

increase in area current irrigation situation in Tanzania, informing the
under irrigation by prioritisation of implementation for new and rehabilitation
375kHa projects. Given the lack of accurate data on the location and
condition of existing irrigation systems, it is imperative to
determine their functionality. Discrepancies between reported
and actual irrigated areas underscore the need for accurate data
collection. Moreover, the growth and contribution of the private
sector in irrigation remains largely unknown and untracked.
Through this study, resource allocation can be optimised,
ensuring effective decision-making between building new
systems, and expanding or rehabilitating existing ones based on
data-driven insights.

A.2. Conduct comprehensive feasibility studies to establish

a robust pipeline of projects poised for implementation by
both Government and private sector entities. These feasibility
studies encompass a range of critical elements, including
agronomic and soil testing to ascertain land suitability for
agriculture, topographic surveys to understand land layout,
hydrological surveys, water resource analysis to assess water
availability, economic analysis to gauge the financial viability of
each project, and social studies to ensure local community buy-
in and support from relevant authorities. Surveys will encompass
projects of varying scales, including small, medium, and large
schemes, boreholes, lake zone projects, as well as expansion
and rehabilitation initiatives. The overarching objective is to
develop a pipeline of projects that are investable and ready for
implementation by the National Irrigation Commission, private
sector partners, farmer groups, or individual farmers, with
funding sourced from a variety of channels.

A.3. Implement new Government-led irrigation schemes

across Tanzania to expand the irrigated area sustainably by
110kHa from various sources, including water basins such as
the Pangani and Rufiji basins. This initiative encompasses the
construction of large, medium, and small-scale irrigation
schemes utilising diverse water sources. These may include the
construction of weirs to divert water directly from rivers, pump
irrigation systems drawing from river sources, and the
establishment of storage facilities to reserve floodwater during
rainy seasons. Priority is placed on the development of water
storage facilities such as dams and ponds to ensure a year-
round water supply, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions of
Tanzania mainland. By leveraging water resources from multiple
basins and employing a range of irrigation techniques, this
initiative aims to expand and sustainably manage the irrigated

201
area, thereby enhancing agricultural productivity and food
security in the country.

A.4. Expand the area under irrigation within existing

systems by scaling up water distribution to cover an
additional 35kHa of new irrigated area. This effort entails a
comprehensive assessment of water availability in existing
schemes to ensure sufficient capacity for expansion. Moreover,
measures to enhance water efficiency will be implemented to
optimise water management practices, consequently expanding
the area under irrigation. This expansion encompasses both
increasing water storage capacity and expanding water
distribution to cover new areas. Typically, the cost of expansion
is approximately half that of establishing a new scheme,
contingent upon adequate water availability to meet the
expanded needs. Through these measures, the initiative seeks
to maximise the utilisation of existing irrigation infrastructure,
enhance water efficiency, and extend irrigation coverage to
previously underserved areas, thereby bolstering agricultural
productivity and resilience in Tanzania.

A.5. Rehabilitate existing traditional irrigation systems to

ensure their proper functioning, targeting 35kHa currently
under irrigation. While this initiative may not directly result in an
increase in the area under irrigation, it is crucial to sustainably
operate existing systems, thereby supporting established
cultivation activities. Rehabilitation efforts typically involve
improving both water storage and distribution infrastructure to
address existing deficiencies. In certain cases, modernising
existing infrastructure and upgrading it to improved systems with
higher water efficiency may lead to some expansion in the area
under irrigation. By enhancing the functionality and efficiency of
traditional irrigation systems, this initiative aims to prolong their
lifespan, improve agricultural productivity, and contribute to the
overall sustainability of irrigation practices in Tanzania.

A.6. Roll out 13,000 bore holes across Tanzania to add

208kHa of new irrigated area, with a targeted focus on
specific regions and value chains. This endeavour involves
drilling wells and installing drip irrigation infrastructure, along with
water tanks to serve farming blocks of up to 16 hectares,
allocating one hectare per farmer. The implementation of this
project spans across all 184 districts in Tanzania, with
prioritisation based on various factors, including the need for
groundwater use in areas where surface water resources are
limited, particularly in semi-arid regions. Groundwater resource
availability and technical viability will be key considerations,
alongside fostering engagement with local Government and
communities. By leveraging groundwater resources and

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 deploying modern irrigation infrastructure, this initiative seeks to
expand irrigated areas, enhance crop production, and promote
sustainable agriculture across Tanzania.

A.7. Develop and implement a Lake Zone Irrigation

programme, with the objective of irrigating up to 22kHa of
land surrounding Lake Victoria. This initiative includes the
establishment of small-scale irrigation schemes that will source
water from Lake Victoria and pump it to serve smallholder farms
located more than 300 metres away from the lake shore. To
facilitate this initiative, detailed feasibility studies will be
conducted, followed by consultations with the Nile Basin Initiative
(NBI) to ensure regional cooperation and equitable use of water
resources from the Nile Basin. By harnessing water from Lake
Victoria and deploying efficient irrigation infrastructure, this
initiative aims to expand irrigated areas, support smallholder
farmers, and promote sustainable agriculture in the Lake Zone
region of Tanzania.

B. Unlock private B.1. Conduct inter-ministry reviews of current water use

sector investment via policies to clarify water rights, simplify the process to obtain
PPPs and private water permits, and communicate progress to the public. This
commercial/equity initiative entails collaboration between various ministries, local
financing Governments, and relevant authorities associated with the
sustainable use of natural water resources. Its objective is to
promote direct private sector investment in large commercial
farms or investments by private entrepreneurs who possess their
own farming land, financing, and are well-positioned to develop
private irrigation projects independently, contingent upon a
conducive and enabling policy environment. Additionally, this
initiative includes the identification, information sharing, and
promotion of areas with high potential for private sector
investment in irrigation. Through this initiative, Tanzania aims to
streamline water use policies, facilitate private sector investment,
and harness the potential of its natural water resources to drive
sustainable agricultural development.

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 B.2. Boost investment in irrigation through a Public-Private
Partnership (PPP) framework by prioritising projects,
customising PPP agreements, and tendering processes, and
engaging with the private sector for investment. This initiative
involves the identification and promotion of projects with high
potential to attract private sector investment and have a
significant economic impact on the agricultural sector. Given the
necessity for alternative sources of investments to finance large
Government-led irrigation projects, the development of an
irrigation-specific PPP framework becomes essential.
Collaborating with private sector stakeholders, this framework
will be tailored to address concerns and meet the requirements
of all parties involved, ultimately unlocking substantial investment
from the private sector. Through this initiative, Tanzania aims to
create a conducive environment for private sector participation in
irrigation projects, fostering collaboration and driving sustainable
agricultural development.

C. Enhance C.1. Enhance the capacity of the National Irrigation

institutional capacity Commission and irrigation officers at regional and district
to support growth, levels through targeted training and provision of
maintenance of implementation tools. This includes comprehensive training
irrigation systems programmes covering maintenance and management of
irrigation systems, as well as technical feasibility studies,
economic assessments, and community engagement. Moreover,
the initiative entails the recruitment and training of additional
personnel to augment the commission's support for Government-
led projects across Tanzania. By bolstering expertise and
providing essential tools, this initiative aims to ensure effective
operation, maintenance, and expansion of irrigation systems
nationwide, thereby advancing sustainable agricultural
development in the country.

C.2. Further develop the national irrigation fund to support

the maintenance of existing systems and facilitate the
creation of Irrigators Organisations (IOs) for the operation,
maintenance, and proper use of new systems. This initiative
encompasses several key components, including capacity
building for farmers in irrigation schemes on the operation,
management, and maintenance of irrigation infrastructure.
Additionally, efforts will be made to engage communities and
organise farmer groups into Irrigators Organisations (IOs) to
ensure collective responsibility for irrigation system upkeep.
Furthermore, awareness campaigns will be conducted to
educate farmers on compliance with the National Irrigation Act
No. 4(2013) and the importance of contributing to irrigation
development through Irrigation Service Fees. By strengthening
the national irrigation fund and fostering the establishment of
IOs, this initiative aims to ensure the financial sustainability and
204
 effective management of irrigation projects, thereby enhancing
agricultural productivity and livelihoods in Tanzania.

Costing:

Government cost, M$ Private sector cost, M$

Compon Initiative 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/3 30/3 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
ent 25 26 27 28 29 0 1 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

A. A.1. 1.5 1.5

Governm Conduct a
ent-led comprehe
increase nsive
in area baseline
under study
irrigation
by
375kHa A.2. 32 20 20 20 20 12 12
Conduct
comprehe
nsive
feasibility
studies

A.3. 150 200 200 150 150 125 125

Implement
new
governme
nt-led
irrigation
schemes

A.4. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Expand
the area
under
irrigation
within
existing
systems

A.5. 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Rehabilitat
e existing
traditional
irrigation
systems

A.6. Roll 22. 67. 90. 112 135. 157.

out 13,000 56 68 24 .8 36 92
bore holes
across
Tanzania

A.7. 14 28 28 28 28 28
Develop

205
 and
implement
a Lake
Zone
Irrigation
Programm
e

B. B.1. 0.2 0.2 0.2

Unlock Conduct
private inter-
sector ministry
investme reviews of
nt via current
PPPs water use
and policies
private
commer
cial B.2. Boost 0.2 0.2 0.2 50 100 150 150 150 150
/equity investmen
financin t in
g irrigation
through a
Public-
Private
Partnershi
p (PPP)

C. C.1. 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Enhance Enhance
institutio the
nal capacity
capacity of the
to National
support Irrigation
growth, Commissi
mainten on
ance of
irrigation
systems C.2. 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Further
develop
the
national
irrigation
fund and
Irrigators
Organisati
ons (IOs)

TOTAL 225 299 257 329 352 341 364 50 100 150 150 150 150

Risk and mitigations

Risk Mitigation

Inadequate Prioritise expansion of land under irrigation with most cost-

government budget effective methods in terms of cost/ha of land irrigated. These
would imply a focus on more cost-effective methods such as
boreholes and lake zone irrigation. Additionally the government
could also increase its focus in getting increased private sector

206
 financing or develop co-investment schemes with stallholders’’
organisations.

Insufficiently Ensure proper resource planning to build necessary capacity.

skilled` human Invest in developing and attracting the human capital required to
resources successfully drive the increase in irrigation. In doing so, it is critical to
focus on key skills required across the value chain from feasibility
studies to implementation.

Operation and Use national irrigation fund and irrigators organisations to

maintenance of support in the operation and maintenance costs. Setting up
irrigation sustainable models is critical to ensure that the infrastructure that is
infrastructure being built includes reflections on operations and maintenance from
the get-go. This includes working together with local communities
and irrigators organisations.

Evolution beyond 2030

• Increase the expansion of borehole and lake zone-based irrigation in a sustainable

way. These two methods are particularly relevant as they are cost-effective and allow
for smaller projects tailored to the needs of the smallholders.

• Beyond 2030, the Government should aim for a significant increase in private sector
funding to develop the irrigation in the country. This will be fuelled by positive use cases
showcased by the government in the coming years as well as through the strengthening
of PPPs.

207
Flagship 2: Quintuple seed production by boosting private production and improving
efficiency of government organisations

Context

In Tanzania, the seed sector plays a pivotal role in agricultural productivity and food security,
yet its current output falls short of meeting the nation's needs. Currently, the country produces
only about a quarter of its effective seed demand and a mere 13% of its potential requirements.
Certified seeds, crucial for enhancing yields and resilience to pests, diseases, and climate
variability, are particularly scarce. For instance, in cereals alone, the utilisation of certified
seeds could potentially elevate current yields from 1.2 MT/ha to global levels of 4-5 MT/ha,
provided other agricultural practices are optimized. Fulfilling this potential is imperative for
Tanzania's ambition to emerge as a significant global food contributor.

Public and Private Stakeholders in the Seed sector

Within the seed sector, stakeholders encompass both public and private entities. Public
institutions such as the Tanzania Research Institute (TARI) and the Agriculture Seed Agency
(ASA) are deeply involved in every aspect of the seed chain, from genetic resource
management and breeding to production and marketing. However, despite their mandated
roles, both TARI and ASA often deviate from their responsibilities. Political pressures
frequently compel them to act reactively, rather than proactively planning for seed demand and
coordinating efforts to prevent shortages. This lack of forward planning exacerbates the
challenges faced by the sector. Working alongside these institutions is the Tanzania Official
Seed Certification Institute (TOSCI), a seed regulatory authority ensuring quality verification
and certification of all seeds produced or imported into Tanzania. However, the burgeoning
demand for certified seeds also underscores the importance of scaling up TOSCI's capacity to
prevent it from becoming a bottleneck in the sector's development.

Conversely, private seed companies primarily focus on producing and marketing certified
seeds, particularly modern maize varieties. Other seeds are generally produced by individual
farmers or farming communities through contract certified seed production or under the Quality
Declared Seed (QDS) programme. The majority of other seeds utilized in the country are either
produced through informal seed production methods or simply recycled by farmers. Overall,
private sector engagement remains constrained by inconsistent government policies and
limited access to essential resources like land, financing, and technology. Despite these
challenges, the bulk of certified seeds available, approximately 83% (~61kMT), are currently
supplied by private producers, with only a fraction (~3kMT) being contributed by ASA and a
portion being imported (~8kMT).

Seed sector challenges

Several challenges impede the scaling up of seed production in Tanzania. Chief among them
is the lack of coordination among public and private stakeholders, hindering effective planning
and resource allocation for sectoral development. Moreover, the private sector's reluctance to
engage in seed production stems from policy uncertainties and resource access issues.
Meanwhile, government-led institutions like TARI and ASA face productivity hurdles due to
organisational inefficiencies, inadequate institutional capacity, and limited irrigation
infrastructure. TARI's productivity stands at a meagre 0.3 MT/ha, while ASA fares slightly better
at 0.6 MT/ha, both significantly lower than the private sector's output of 2 to 4 MT/ha.
Additionally, irrigation coverage remains scant, with only 600 hectares out of TARI's total 3,600
cultivated land benefiting from irrigation, and ASA's cultivation land under irrigation accounts
for only 820 hectares out of the total 6,000 that is currently utilized. Addressing these
208
challenges is critical to unlocking Tanzania's capacity to bolster seed production and achieve
food security goals.

Objective

The overarching objective of this flagship is to grow Tanzania's seed sector and enhance the
availability and utilisation of certified seeds by smallholders by 2030/31. Ultimately, this
flagship aims to boost agricultural productivity and resilience to disease, pests, and climate
change by empowering smallholder farmers with high-quality seeds. To achieve this objective,
a series of ambitious targets have been set: increasing the availability of certified seeds in the
country to 300k metric tons, producing 1.6k metric tons of early generation seeds by TARI,
achieving 251k metric tons of domestic production of certified seeds, with 232k metric tons
produced by the private sector and 19k metric tons by ASA. Additionally, ensuring that 130k
hectares of land are available for seed production will be crucial in meeting these targets and
driving the growth of the seed sector.

The following are the key performance indicators (KPIs) and their yearly breakdowns until
2030/31 to track the progress and impact of this flagship:

209
Initiatives:

A. Boost TARI’s A.1 - Increase land available and utilized for breeding new
capacity to breed crop varieties and production of early generation. Focus on
new crop varieties increasing utilisation of land already available by addressing
and produce high- challenges such as land clearing and preparation, investment in
quality early property boundaries to protect from encroachment, and providing
generation seeds the right infrastructural facilities to support production. If
necessary, additional land that may be necessary due to
agroecological requirements of the crop varieties being
researched or to satisfy the conditions needed to produce
specific varieties of earlier generation seeds.

210
A.2 - Fully Irrigate all land dedicated to breeding of new crop
varieties and production of early generation seeds to enable
multi-seasonal production across all TARI sites and reduce
the dependence on rain-fed irrigation. This is necessary to
increase the productivity of TARI by shifting to year-round
production to ensure adequate availability of pre-basic and basic
seeds required for the rest of the seed sector to thrive. In areas
where research is focused on rain-fed crop varieties, it is also
necessary to have irrigation to protect against the uncertainty of
weather patterns.

A.3 - Market led development of 5 new high-potential crop

varieties per year via increased funding for Research and
Development (R&D) and enhanced research partnerships
with other local and international organisations. Increased
funding for R&D is crucial to fuel innovation and accelerate the
breeding of new crop varieties by supporting the hiring of skilled
researchers, acquisition of advanced laboratory equipment, and
facilitation of field trials to expedite the development of new crop
varieties tailored to local agroecological conditions and market
demands. Forging strategic research partnerships with other
local and international organisations is essential to leverage
expertise, resources, and knowledge sharing. Collaborating with
renowned agricultural research institutions, such as the
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT)
and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), can
provide access to germplasm, breeding techniques, and best
practices in seed development.

A.4 - Boost organisational efficiency of TARI to increase it’s

productivity, speed of research, and quality of breeder &
early generation seeds. To enhance TARI's organisational
efficiency, investments in human capacity and modern tools and
infrastructure are essential. By bolstering staff training and
recruitment efforts, TARI can cultivate a skilled workforce
capable of conducting high-quality research efficiently. Moreover,
upgrading laboratory equipment, field facilities, and information
management systems can expedite research processes and
improve the quality of breeder and early generation seeds. To
enhance TARI's efficiency from a management perspective, it's
vital to transition from a scientist-centric to an output-oriented
institution. This entails restructuring management to include
dedicated roles for project management and coordination
alongside scientists, ensuring alignment with national priorities.
Implementing performance-based incentives and evaluations
can drive impactful research, while fostering partnerships with
government, private sector, and farmer organisations can
enhance relevance and applicability. By adopting this proactive
and collaborative management approach, TARI can maximise its
211
 efficiency, responsiveness, and impact in addressing Tanzania's
agricultural challenges.

B. Increase capacity B.1 - Increase land available and utilized for seed
and capability of ASA multiplication via ASA for private sector use and investing
in it’s preparation for ease of cultivation. This initiative
involves allocating more land to ASA as an asset manager for
the purpose of leasing to private sector seed producers and
investing in its preparation to facilitate ease of cultivation. By
expanding the land available to private seed producers, ASA can
support the scaling up of commercial seed production for priority
crops, thereby increasing the availability of certified seeds in the
market. Additionally, ASA can also contract out this land to
private seed producers for seeds that are a national priority to
meet local consumption but may not be attractive for private
sector to produce commercially without support. Investing in the
preparation of this land, including clearing, boundary
construction, soil preparation, and access roads, will create
conducive conditions for efficient cultivation and maximise land
productivity.

B.2 - Increase area under irrigation for seed multiplication to

double production by enabling multi-seasonal production of
certified seeds. Expanding the area under irrigation for seed
multiplication in Tanzania will not only double production but also
attract private sector involvement in cultivating on irrigated ASA
land. This initiative aims to enable multi-seasonal production of
certified seeds, mitigating the challenges posed by seasonal
rainfall variability and fostering a conducive environment for
private seed producers to engage in seed multiplication. By
providing access to irrigated land, the ASA can incentivize
private sector participation, driving increased seed production,
improving seed quality, and ultimately enhancing agricultural
productivity and food security in the country.

212
B3. Increasing ASA land leased to private seed producers
by improving leasing terms and negotiating other necessary
requirements. To further stimulate seed multiplication in
Tanzania, there's a strategic focus on increasing the amount of
ASA land leased to private seed producers. This initiative
involves improving leasing terms and negotiating additional
necessary requirements to facilitate private sector participation.
By enhancing leasing agreements, including terms related to
land access, tenure security, and operational flexibility, ASA can
attract more private seed producers to utilise its land for seed
multiplication. Negotiating other essential requirements, such as
access to irrigation, technical support, and market linkages, will
further incentivize private sector involvement and ensure the
successful cultivation of certified seeds.

B.4 - Develop ASA's institutional capacity and its

organisational efficiency to produce, promote and distribute
certified seeds to drive adoption and uptake via
partnerships and improvement of infrastructure and
equipment. This initiative includes investing in staff training and
development to improve capabilities, restructuring management
to include dedicated roles for project management and
coordination, and implementing performance-based incentives
and evaluations to drive organisational efficiency. These
measures will ensure alignment with the nation’s agricultural
priorities and drive impactful results. Additionally, fostering
partnerships with other government institutions, private sector
entities, NGOs, and farmer organisations is essential in
increasing the availability of certified seeds for priority crops.
Furthermore, upgrading infrastructure and equipment, such as
seed processing facilities, storage warehouses, and farm
machinery that can be used by ASA or leased out to support
private sector, is also critical to enhance operational capabilities
and ensure efficient production and distribution of certified
seeds. Embracing these multifaceted approaches will enable
ASA to streamline operations, optimize resource allocation, and
catalyse the adoption of certified seeds to advance Tanzania's
agricultural sector and bolster food security.

213
C. Capacitate TOSCI C.1 - Scale up Tanzania Official Seed Certification Institute’s
(TOSCI) ability to efficiently inspect and certify seed and
seed production across all players. As Tanzania pushes to
achieve greater availability and utilisation of certified seeds, it is
essential that TOSCI is also able to scale its operations as a
seed regulatory authority in ensuring quality verification and
certification of all seeds produced or imported into Tanzania.
This support in terms of human capacity and other resources
(such as satellite offices, vehicles, fuel, etc.) necessary for day-
to-day operations and field visits, need to match the growth in
demand for certified seeds to ensure TOSCI does not become
the bottleneck in the sector’s development.

D. Unlocking private D.1 - Increase land available by government for private seed
sector investment in production that can either be bought directly or leased for
seed production seed production. To address the critical challenge of limited
land access for private seed production in Tanzania, a
comprehensive approach is proposed. Firstly, there is a need to
identify and protect agricultural land with high potential for seed
production, ensuring its availability for private sector investment.
This information should be effectively communicated to private
sector stakeholders to inform their investment decisions in terms
of land purchase or leasing. Furthermore, simplifying the process
of leasing government-owned land and providing longer-term
leases can facilitate co-investments from the private sector in
essential infrastructure such as irrigation and storage facilities

D.2 - Stakeholder engagement to increase private sector

involvement in seed production. Recognising that the private
sector already contributes over 95% of certified seeds in the
country, it's imperative for the government to involve them in all
planning and decision-making processes. This entails
understanding the challenges faced by the private sector, both
within the seed sector and in the broader context of ease of
doing business. By actively listening to private sector concerns
and needs, the government can play a facilitative role in
addressing barriers and fostering a conducive environment for
sectoral growth.

214
E. Coordination E.1 - Co-ordination to prioritise specific crops and their
across seed sector respective improved varieties. This involves convening private
players sector producers, crop boards, and relevant government
authorities to establish a comprehensive coordinating framework.
This framework, potentially overseen by the boards of specific
prioritized commodities, will align on national priorities and
production targets for key crops by 2030/31. Moreover, it will
facilitate the market-led selection of varieties for priority crops
and establish yearly requirements to produce certified seeds.
Early allocation of production, promotion, and distribution targets
to various stakeholders will be aligned, ensuring the availability
of necessary resources, and creating key performance metrics to
track progress through regular engagement. Additionally, a
mechanism will be established through the Agriculture
Transformation Office to escalate unresolved challenges to
relevant authorities. This coordinated approach aims to
streamline decision-making, enhance resource allocation, and
accelerate the development and distribution of improved crop
varieties in Tanzania.

E.2 — Clarify role of private sector and government in seed

production. To achieve this, a comprehensive review of
mandates and roles of various government institutions involved
in the seed sector is imperative. This review will ensure that
these institutions prioritise critical elements necessary for the
success of all stakeholders and the sector. Specifically, TARI's
primary focus should be on researching market-led new crop
varieties and producing early generation seeds, rather than
engaging in the commercial sale of seeds driven by political
pressure or lack of funding support. Similarly, ASA's role needs
clarification based on its strengths and other national priorities
that may not be fulfilled solely by the private sector. Moreover,
ASA and TOSCI must deliberately engage with the private sector
to enhance their participation and sustain the sector's growth by
creating a stable policy environment and seed sector-specific
incentives. This will enable further identification of gaps in the
seed sector and opportunities for private sector engagement in
furthering seed research, production of early generation seeds,
encourage collaborative promotion to drive certified seed
utilisation, and other critical elements.

215
Risks and mitigations

Risk Mitigation

Political Set up proper governance for coordination and long-term

interruptions in demand/production planning, which is crucial for coordinating
seed production seed production activities and ensuring long-term demand and
production planning. This involves establishing transparent
processes, clear regulations, and effective oversight mechanisms to
minimize the influence of political factors on seed production.
Additionally, developing strategic partnerships with stakeholders,
such as seed producers, government agencies, research institutions,
and international organizations, can help create resilience against
political disruptions.

Low uptake of Government investment in promotion can address barriers to

improved seeds seed adoption and encourage farmers to adopt improved varieties.
This can include conducting awareness campaigns to educate
farmers about the benefits of using improved seeds, providing
subsidies or financial incentives to make seeds more affordable, and
offering extension services to support farmers in the adoption and
proper use of improved seeds. Furthermore, engaging with local
communities, agricultural cooperatives, and extension workers can
help tailor promotion efforts to specific needs and preferences,
thereby increasing the uptake of improved seeds.

Evolution beyond 2030

Beyond 2030, the Tanzania seed sector is envisioned to be a robust and dynamic ecosystem
characterized by increased utilisation and adoption of certified seeds by smallholders. The
sector's growth will be underpinned by enhanced private sector seed production, driving
agricultural productivity and resilience to disease, pests, and climate change. With targeted
initiatives aimed at boosting seed production and addressing key challenges, the sector is
projected to achieve significant milestone to have 300k metric tons of certified seeds
available in the country, with 130k hectares of land dedicated to seed production.

To sustain and further grow the seed sector beyond 2030, continued collaboration and
innovation will be essential. Initiatives such as increasing land availability and irrigation for
seed multiplication, developing organisational efficiency within institutions like TARI and
ASA, and clarifying the roles of public and private stakeholders will lay the groundwork for
long-term success. Strengthening partnerships with research institutions, leveraging
advanced technologies, and enhancing regulatory frameworks will be pivotal in driving
continuous improvement and adaptation to evolving agricultural needs and market dynamics.
Moreover, scaling up TOSCI's capacity to efficiently inspect and certify seeds, alongside
stakeholder engagement to foster private sector involvement, will ensure the sector remains
agile and responsive to emerging challenges and opportunities. Through these concerted
efforts, Tanzania's seed sector is poised to become a cornerstone of national food security
and economic development well into the future.
216
Flagship 3: Improve soil health by developing agriculture management plans across
3Mha and by transitioning 3Mha to climate smart agriculture though on-farm soil
mapping to develop action plans as well as through national soil degradation
assessments to develop climate smart practices

Context

Soil is critical for productivity, resilience, food quality and sustainability for crops, pasture, etc.
Current soil maps are inadequate and inaccessible. Most soil maps were last updated before
the 2000s and are not readily available for smallholder and for commercial farmers. Many
commercial farmers conduct internal studies and smallholders continue to use their land as
they deem fit without an understanding of the impact of their practices or which practices are
likely to get them the best outcomes.

Soil degradation is also on the rise in Tanzania. Studies referenced by the Vice-Presidents
office (VPO) indicate up to 60% of soils in certain areas are degraded and costing the economy
billions annually. Key hotspots include Dodoma, Singida, Morogoro, etc. The extent and
magnitude are also on the increase. More recently, a study done in the Usangu basin for
example indicated that 90% of soils there were degraded, and deficient in key nutrients. Other
soil related issues including salination which affects over 3.7 million hectares of cropland, soil
acidity, particularly from aluminium or manganese toxicity impacting 4.7 million hectares, and
widespread soil erosion. Additionally, sweeping - a consequence of overgrazing and
overharvesting - leads to a depletion of organic matter across croplands115.

Climate smart agricultural practices are a powerful tool to reduce further degradation and
restore the health soil ecosystem while minimizing the impact on the environment. In Tanzania,
a recent study concluded that the uptake of regenerative agricultural practices is low, another
study in certain regions estimated that 10% of farmers practice agroforestry for example. The
use of tailored inputs and the practice of climate smart agricultural practices at scale has the
potential to boost yields, earn additional income for farmers, improve diets, and most
importantly improve soil health.

Objective and KPIs

The flagship aims to significantly improve the soil ecosystem in the country and make soil
health data visible to those who need it. This is done through on-farm soil testing on individual
farmer fields to develop recommendations for tailored input use to meet crop and soil needs.
Additionally, supporting farmers, pastoralists, etc. to make the transition to climate smart
agricultural practices which can build resilience but also lead to restoration. It also seeks to
connect famers to the carbon credit market led by carbon aggregators to incentivise the
transition through additional income.

The following are the key performance indicators (KPIs) and their yearly breakdowns until
2030/31 to track the progress and impact of this flagship:

115
TARI

217
218
Initiatives

A. Collect soil data to A.1 - Identify the data gaps in existing and viable datasets
enable the use of on soil health status. The aim of this is to avoid the need to
tailored inputs to reinvent data sets which already exist. This is achieved
optimise crop yields through the collation and harmonisation of various datasets
across stakeholder efforts in the country from the government,
private sector and development partner communities. The
data is analysed, streamlined and used as the base to develop
a national soil management platform, building on existing
platforms through which the data and visualisations can be
visible to stakeholders. This would also inform locations with
variability to prioritise to A.2 which would be at a higher
resolution to aid the development of farmer site level tailored
recommendations

A.2 - Pilot on-farm soil testing, and scale on-farm soil

sampling led by farmers and extension officers using soil
test kits. The pilots are to be executed in locations with high
variability, but also where the relevant infrastructure and
structures are in place to enable the development of a proof-
of-concept. The extension officers are supported by capacity
building, incentives and relevant tools to reach 3Mha by 2030.
The extension agents upload the results to the national soil
management platform with the farmers unique identifier.
Farmers’ soils would be tested over time over time to track
progress. 10% of samples would be sent to labs for validation
and calibration of soil test kits. Once the model is proven

219
 thought the pilot, it is then scaled to carefully selected location
with high soil variability.

A.3 - Pilot and scale the R&D for the development of

tailored agriculture management plans. These plans would
be co-developed by farmers and extension agents, on the
farmers’ fields once the results from the sampling have been
created (which should be available within minutes). The soil
test results are compared to a pre-developed guideline which
links soil health status to key recommendations on inputs and
practices. The pilot phase would be used to validate the
efficacy of this approach and to further improve on the pre-
created guidelines which would then be scaled for use across
the country in line with A2.

B. Support the transition B.1 - Implement national soil and vegetation assessment,
of farmers to climate leveraging the proven land degradation surveillance
smart agricultural framework (LDSF) developed by the world agroforestry
practices centre to understand degradation levels, and its drivers. This
would be executed in close collaboration with farmers, the
local governments. It would require sensitisation campaigns to
help farmers understand expectations of them and how the
data collected would be used to inform restoration actions.

B.2 — Using the stakeholder participatory approach,

collaboratively design climate smart interventions with
farmers, farming communities, extension agents and relevant
experts (private sector, research institutions, etc.). This would
be done though workshops where key agroforestry regions,
degradation hotspots and areas with healthy soil systems
would be prioritized for implementation in B3.

B.3 - Pilot and scale appropriate climate smart agricultural

practices (e.g., agroforestry which can unlock carbon credit
revenues for the government, silvopasture, halfmoon bans,
etc. for grazing land). This would require the capacity
development of farmers, extension officers, implementation
partners, other relevant stakeholders. It would also require
government support including the leasing of existing unused
govt. facilities to private investors for e.g., seed nurseries.

Costing

Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$

Comp Initiative 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
onent 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

220
A. A.1- Identify 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Collecti the data
on of gaps in
soil existing and
data to viable
enable datasets on
the use soil health
of status
tailored
inputs
A.2- Pilot 0.1 3 5 13 16 16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
to
and scale
optimis
on-farm soil
e crop
testing
yields

A.3- Pilot 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
and scale
the R&D for
the
developmen
t of
guidelines
for tailored
input use

B. B.1- 6 9.3 9.3 9.3 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Support Implement
the national soil
transitio and
n of vegetation
farmers assessment
to
regener
B.2- 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ative
Collaborativ
agricult
ely design
ural
climate
practice
smart
s
agriculture
intervention
s

B.3 - Pilot 0.3 5.5 8.3 8.3 1.7 11. 11. 1.7 34. 51. 51. 66. 68 68
and scale 0 0 0 0 0 3
appropriate
climate
smart
agricultural
practices

TOTAL 0.6 15 23 4.0 36 40 12 2 34 51 51 66 68 68

221
Risks and Mitigation

Adoption of climate smart practises would require changes which farmers may have not
foreseen, thus potentially slowing the uptake.

• The socio-economic situations of farming households are considered into degradation

assessment.

• The recommended climate smart practices in certain areas are aligned on and adapted
in collaboration with local stakeholders.

The transition cost may be high for some farmers to manage and could also impact on food
availability/production.

• Creating a bridge to ensure that the financial/land cost of transitioning is lowered or

covered though financing or grants.

Absence of market or inputs (e.g., tree seedlings) leading to farmers being demotivated to
continue with the transition.

• Linkages with other flagships to ensure sufficient inputs and markets for produce.

• Incentives and support for the private sector to ensure production and availability of
relevant inputs.

Post-2030

• Nationwide coverage of farmer-site level soil testing which is led by farmers. The
data could be uploaded to the soil database with farmers identifier. This data would
allow the government and relevant partners to review the impact of practices and inputs
on farmer fields over time to inform relevant adjustments as required.

• Nationwide coverage of the areas under restoration/climate smart practices

which can include croplands, forests, woodlands, etc., setting up expanded coverage
for a variety of carbon aggregators and establishing Tanzania as a hub for carbon
trading in Africa.

222
Flagship 4: Scale upstream and downstream market linkages for 2M+ smallholders to
access quality inputs, markets, and other services, by formalising and scaling
smallholder groups across 1.7M agriculture entities (e.g., farms/ponds), and
incubating farmer-facing SMEs through BBT and third-party accelerators

Context

When smallholders* are organised into groups, they typically experience significant
productivity improvements. First, organised groups wield greater bargaining power,
enabling them to procure more affordable, high-quality inputs (including mechanisation) and
negotiate better offtake prices for their products. Second, formalised groups can establish
stronger linkages with agro-dealers than individual smallholders, facilitating both upstream
and downstream market access. Moreover, group formation facilitates easier access to
financing through risk-sharing mechanisms. Lastly, the mutual learning and support
network within organised smallholder groups fosters greater resilience, especially during
times of adversity.

However, only ~15% of smallholders are organised, primarily through cooperatives.

While the cooperative model is well-recognised and has proven scalability (~4.5K
AMCOs/fishing/livestock cooperatives today), cooperatives are sometimes burdened by
heavy gov’t regulation and local gov’t interference within cooperative leadership. Alternative
organisational structures like Associations and private sector-facilitated groups, such as
Farmer Marketing Associations through TAHA, present potential avenues for future scale-
up.

Smallholder groups can only achieve optimal productivity when they have access to and
are effectively served by agricultural SMEs. These SMEs play a crucial role as
intermediaries between groups and upstream/downstream markets, particularly in last-mile
service delivery. However, the majority of agri-SMEs are smaller, informal, household-run
enterprises with limited access to training, financing, and networks, hindering their scalability
into medium- and large-scale enterprises. Initiatives like the BBT programme and third-party
accelerator programmes can provide additional training and resources to incubate new agri-
SMEs, especially those led by entrepreneurial young people. Existing SMEs can also be
scaled up to better serve more smallholder groups across priority commodities. Promising
examples of SMEs in select commodities with high potential to enhance farmer efficiency and
productivity include: horticulture aggregators providing quality-controlled cold storage, feedlots
for livestock fattening, and chilling stations for fish located near Beach Management Units.

*Includes crop farmers, pastoralists/agro-pastoralists, and fisherfolk

Objective and KPIs

Smallholders across ~3.2M agriculture entities* are organized into groups, and groups are
supported by a flourishing agri-SME ecosystem led by millions of young people across
the country. Through this network, smallholders have access to affordable, high-quality
inputs, services, and markets for offtake year-round.

*Smallholders across 1.5M ag. entities are already organized; Flagship aims to organise
smallholders across an additional 1.7M ag. entities

223
Initiatives

Component Initiative

A.1 - Conduct independent review of different smallholder

aggregation models, to understand which organising models are most
A. Create and
effective by region/commodity (e.g., depending on production cycle,
support new
inputs requirements, typical farmer lifestyle, etc.). In parallel with
smallholder
independent review, continue current MoA-led review of TCDC
groups (incl.
policies, to minimise cooperative regulations where relevant, and boost
crop farmers,
overall efficacy of cooperatives
livestock
keepers, and A.2 - Mobilise farmers across 1.7M agriculture entities (including
fisher folk) farms, livestock grazing areas, ponds) into new groups, based on
results of independent review in A.1. Mobilisation efforts will include
community outreach and engagement (e.g., via LGA-supported
224
 convenings, radio campaigns), membership drives, initial support to set
up governance and basic infrastructure, and preliminary
introductions/linkages to farmer-facing SMEs. Emphasize group
formation with female leaders/ participation predominantly from female
smallholders

A.3 - Provide ongoing capacity building and inspection for existing

and new smallholder groups, through local agents of existing entities
(e.g., TCDC staff at LGA level). Capacity building could include
assessment of strengths and opportunities for improvement, trainings in
topics such as negotiations, and support in establishing/amending
agreements with agri-SMEs

B.1 - Create 12,000 smallholder-led and smallholder-facing SMEs

across priority commodities, through training high-potential youth
entrepreneurs across the country. Programmatic supports for young
B. Establish and people will include provision of initial inputs (including land, seeds,
equip youth- fertilisers, pesticides, fish fingerlings, equipment like cages, fish feed,
led agri-SMEs animals, animal raising facilities, etc.), 6+ months hands-on training and
through BBT incubation, and access to financing for later scale-up of businesses
programme
B.2 - Recruit and train 4000+ young people to become private SME
support agents, that will support youth-led SMEs in B.1. Youth will be
trained through gov’t programme and subsequently placed in private
companies (e.g., large-scale fertiliser and seed companies), providing
input-specific or service-specific guidance to groups of smallholders

C.1 - Create 3000+ new farmer-facing SMEs via third-party

incubators/accelerators (e.g., SUGECO, Helvetas). Key programmatic
C. Incubate
initiatives for SMEs should include business management training
smallholder-
(including application of forecasting tools and basic market data), linkages
facing SMEs
to a range of financing options, and support in meeting licensing and
regulatory requirement

D.1 - Review best practices around inputs/mechanisation subsidies

and other financial supports. Review should include how subsidies
should be distributed/priced to minimise market distortion, while still
providing enough runway for smallholders to cross specific productivity
threshold

D.2 - Subsidise critical inputs to smallholders via agro-dealers (e.g.,

seeds, fertilisers, pesticides). Allocate and distribute subsidies using best-
practice mechanisms found in Activity D.1. (e.g., direct distribution to
D. Continue and smallholders, and/or reimbursement made to agro-dealers after they’ve
optimise sold inputs at discounted price to registered farmers)
provision of
inputs, D.3- Continue Board-led provision of inputs for traditional cash
subsidies, crops (cashew, coffee, cotton, sisal). Inputs provided will include seeds,
seedlings, fertilizers, pesticides, and farming tools (e.g., sprayers)
and access to
mechanisation D.4 - Establish 50+ mechanisation hubs for smallholders to
purchase and lease equipment, including tractors, plows, hand-hoes,
and fishing gears. Hubs will be constructed by MoA/MLF, but could later
225
 be sold to private sector management. Hubs should be strategically
placed close to new smallholder groups in Activity A.2. and will be led by
entrepreneurs trained in activities B.1 and C.1.

Costing

Gov cost, M$ Private sector cost, M$

Componen 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
t Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

A. Create A.1. - Conduct

and review of SHF
support aggregation
new models 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
smallhold
er groups A.2 - Mobilise
(incl. crop farmers into
farmers, new groups 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
livestock
keepers, A.3 - Provide
and fisher ongoing
folk) capacity
building for
groups 2 3 5 6 7 9

B.1 - Create
12K farmer-
B. led and
Establish farmer facing
and equip SMEs 2 3 4 6 6 6 9 4 8 13 17 17 17 25
youth-led
agri-SMEs B.2 - Train
through 4000+ young
BBT people to
programm become
e private SME
support
agents 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 1 1 2 2 2

C. C.1 - Create
Incubate 3000+ new
smallhold farmer-led
er-facing and farmer-
SMEs facing SMEs 3 3 4 5 5 6 6

D. D.1 - Review
Continue subsidies
and best practices 0.2 0.2 0.1
optimise
D.2 -
provision
Subsidise
of inputs,
critical inputs
subsidies,
to SHF 50 45 40 35 30 25 20
and

226
access to D.3- Continue
mechanis Board-led
ation provision of
inputs Costs covered in Flagship 6

D.4 -
Establish
mechanisatio
n hubs 3 4 4 8 9 10 11

TOTAL 60 57 54 54 51 49 47 17 18 19 20 21 22 22

Note: Exact split for costing of activities B.1. and B.2. between gov’t, dev. partners, and
private sector is unknown

Risks & mitigation

• Smallholder groups that don’t receive adequate support/training (e.g. support to

initially set up governance structure, initial introductions to agri-SMEs that can support
them) may dissolve before gaining traction

o Equip local staff to provide more intensive, hands-on support to groups

during first year of group formation. Additionally, connect them with existing
groups that are producing the same commodities and that have a proven track
record, to facilitate peer learnings. Finally, ensure lighter-touch capacity
building efforts continue for 3-5 years beyond initial group formation

• New agri-SMEs may face similar agriculture-specific regulatory barriers as larger

commercial players when starting and operating their businesses (e.g., long wait
times to stock products, given the multiyear process of registering certain seed and
fertiliser varieties)

o Accelerator programmes (including BBT) can provide SMEs with technical

assistance and other supports to overcome regulatory hurdles (e.g.,
connect SMEs with AGCOT liaisons, raise challenges to TPSF and National
Agriculture Working Group, etc.)

Post-2030

• Deploy new knowledge of which aggregation models work best in each

commodity/region, to further scale mobilisation efforts, so that all smallholders are
organised into relevant groups nationwide

• Scale countrywide network of agri-SMEs to ensure every smallholder group has

access to affordable, high-quality inputs, services, and markets for offtake on a
consistent basis. Youth entrepreneurs could remain at the forefront of scaling
SME operations and starting new ventures

227
228
Flagship 5: Improve red meat & dairy farmers' access to market by promoting viable
offtake volumes and high product quality

Context

Compared to neighbouring countries, Tanzania boasts ample agricultural land (including

pastures) to raise red meat and dairy animals, surpassing Kenya by 40% and Uganda by
more than double.116 With approximately 37 million cattle, 27 million goats, and 9 million sheep,
Tanzania ranks second only to Ethiopia in livestock population in Africa.117 Despite this
wealth of resources, the contribution of red meat and dairy to the national GDP remains
relatively low, at 3.5% and 1.5%, respectively.

Nevertheless, livestock rearing still serves as a crucial source of employment for

millions of households nationwide, with over 2 million households engaged in raising red
meat and dairy animals (26% of all agriculture households). Red meat constitutes a
substantial portion of the Tanzanian diet, supplying over 70% of the total daily per capita
energy from meat products. Increasing dairy consumption could significantly enhance the
overall nutritional quality of the Tanzanian diet. Although per capita consumption is on par
with some peer countries such as Uganda and Ethiopia (~40-45 litres/capita), it is 50% lower
than per capita consumption in Kenya. Thus, enhancing livestock productivity would not only
serve as a critical engine for national economic growth, but would also improve the
livelihoods and nutrition of millions of smallholders.

Smallholders (pastoralists and agro-pastoralists) indeed stand poised to reap significant

economic and nutritional benefits from improved productivity, given that they are also
responsible for 95%+ of all production. However, offtake rates of milk and red meat
animals from smallholders remain low due to several factors, including inadequate
production volumes viable for the market, lower animal quality for niche or export markets,
and limited offtake infrastructure with consistent market linkages.

The challenges of low production volumes and inferior animal quality stem from various factors,
such as the limited availability of affordable, high-quality inputs like vaccines against
prevalent diseases (with only around 35% coverage for indigenous cattle) and supplementary
fodder for fattening. Furthermore, access to livestock drinking water is scarce, with an
estimated annual deficit of ~115 billion litres/year. Additionally, the availability of quality
breeding services for improved and crossbred animals is limited, with many artificial
insemination technicians lacking adequate training to successfully inseminate on the first 1-2
attempts, leading to dissatisfaction among livestock keepers.

Limited offtake infrastructure with consistent market linkages is exacerbated by

inconsistencies in demand and pricing in local markets. While livestock traders struggle
to sell their animals, commercial processors and exporters face challenges in finding high-
quality animals for purchase. Pre-alignment on requirements for livestock raising, such as
animal traceability and minimum weight standards, could help mitigate these inconsistencies
and foster a more robust market environment.

Objective and KPIs

116
World Bank Data Repository
117
FAO Tanzania

229
By 2030, commercial fodder production will scale to 5-10M tons/year, smallholders will
raise 2.3M specialized/cross-bred/improved indigenous animals with better genetics, 50%
of all indigenous animals will be vaccinated against priority diseases, and smallholders
will have improved market access through new offtake sites, where they experience
consistent demand and pricing for their products. Equipped with the latest knowledge of
climate-smart livestock raising practices, these smallholders will be at the forefront of
sustainability boosting protein intake across the country and regionally.

230
Initiatives

Component Initiative

A.1- Continue current efforts to test, refine, and certify the first
domestic pasture seed. Testing should consider productivity of domestic
pasture seed vs. commonly imported seeds, to determine market viability
before scaled multiplication.

While testing and certification efforts are being completed, continue

multiplication and productivity improvements of available seeds in
Government farms
A. Increase
fodder A.2- Scale training programmes to ~15,000 smallholders to produce
production their own fodder (including pasture, silage, and hay) through Farmer
via SHF and Field Schools (FFS), including young people from the BBT-LIFE
comm. programme. In addition to training, ensure that smallholders are equipped
players with initial inputs to begin production, including small land parcels (1.2 Ha
each), seeds, and equipment. Encourage trained smallholders to also train
peers, to multiply effect of FFS

A.3- Support and incentivise ~900 commercial fodder producers to

scale operations in Tanzania, through identification of suitable land
contracts, capacity support to start/register new businesses, and provision
of improved seeds for commercial players for the first 2-3 years of this
initiative

B.1- Continue foundational breeding research at TALIRI to

understand optimal genetics of improved indigenous cattle, for
highest potential yields and suitability to Tanzania’s agro-ecological
B. Increase context. Breeding research will be used as input into creation of ~2K
production improved indigenous breeding stock, some of which can be used as
of parent stock for new community breeding programmes in Activity B.4
specialised
and B.2- Increase production of specialised and cross-bred animals at
improved Livestock Multiplication Units (LMUs), through biological mating and
breeds community bull centres. For biological mating, purchase ~1.3K new
breeding bulls and 27K accompanying heifers to produce a total of ~80K
new specialised/cross-bred animals over 7 years. For community bull
centres, purchase unwanted, specialised male calves from commercial
dairy processors, raise them in LMUs for 2 years, and then strategically

231
 place them in livestock-keeping communities for mating with heifers to
produce ~900K more offspring with improved genetics

B.3- Scale semen production and insemination services through the

National Artificial Insemination Centre (NAIC). Purchase 40 new
breeding bulls to produce semen for insemination services of 1.3M
animals (36K semen straws/bull/year). Continue selling ~75% of semen
straws to private AI technicians for insemination services. For the
remaining 25% of semen straws, equip existing gov’t AI technicians with
refresher training courses to improve service quality. Additionally, hire new
technicians to scale insemination services, and research best practices
around incentives schemes to enhance quality of insemination services

B.4- Establish community breeding programmes in 3 villages, placing

100 breeding bulls in each location. Breeding stock for each of the three
villages will be sourced from different locations/be comprised of different
genetics, to test and assess efficacy of different bull types (use imported
breeding bulls in village 1, improved indigenous breeding stock from
TALIRI in Activity B.1. in village 2, and bulls created via AI/embryo transfer
in village 3). In each village, work with development partners to train ~20
livestock keepers on breeding practices, including how to properly identify
and select animals for breeding, and how to then assess efficacy of
selection/record data for future learnings

C.1- Construct 3,000 dip tanks in villages with the highest rates of
tick-borne diseases, but where current availability of dip tanks is
particularly low. Simultaneously procure acaracides to fill dip tanks, and
collaborate with extension agents to train livestock keepers on the value of
dipping and with what frequency dipping should occur

C.2- Increase vaccine production and distribute vaccines for CBPP,

C. Improve CCPP, and PPR to 50% of cattle, sheep, and goats nationwide, targeting
animal efforts in villages with the highest rates of disease prevalence.
health Additionally, procure ECF and FMD vaccines from abroad and disburse
quality and them to 50% of all cattle (until domestic production certification has been
coverage achieved in Activity C.3.) Simultaneously procure 20 cooling vehicles and
cold storage facilities to mitigate vaccine spoilage during the distribution
process

C.3- Establish required infrastructure and receive certification at

Government vaccine centre to begin production of ECF and FMD
vaccines. Infrastructure requirements include new buildings to house
BSL4 laboratories, laboratory equipment, HVAC systems, cold-chain
storage, and packaging materials

D. Expand D.1- Upgrade and expand national livestock traceability system. First,
livestock assess current usability and interoperability of system to determine
traceability necessary upgrades. Once upgrades have been made, scale registration
platform to 10M new red meat and dairy animals, beginning with registration of
animals in commercial farms (given greater purchasing power to buy

232
 animal ear tags, and value from meeting traceability requirements for
certain import markets)

E.1- Upgrade 79 milk collection centres (MCCs) where capacity is

lower than offtake volumes, and construct 70 new MCCs. For
upgrades of existing centres, procure cooling tanks and personnel for tank
installation. For new MCCs, scope and select locations with high milk
production but limited accessibility to existing collection points, with
proximity to commercial dairy processors for offtake. After initial set-up,
identify new dairy cooperatives in Flagship 4 (Activity A.2) to manage and
E. Improve operate new MCCs.
offtake rates E.2- Pilot and scale community small ranches for improved dairy and
through red meat productivity, and to facilitate formalised offtake agreements.
MCCs & Over the first 3 years, select 10 different villages to pilot ranches. In each
small ranch, support mobilisation of smallholders into one designated grazing
ranches area (~120 hectares/ranch), and support the group with planning for
procurement of all required inputs such as vaccines, fodder, and sheds.
Additionally, construct 1 bore hole and 1 silage storage facility in each
ranch. Facilitate dialogue between smallholders and commercial
processors/exporters to align on production requirements for guaranteed
offtake. Assess results of pilot ranches at the end of year 3, and make any
necessary programme changes before scaling to ~400 new ranches over
the following 3 years

Costing
Gov cost, M$ Private sector cost, M$

Compo 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
nent Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

A. A.1. — Certify 0.3 0.3

Increa first domestic
se pasture seed
fodder
produc A.2- Train 1 2 2 3 4 5 5
tion smallholders on
via fodder
SHF production
and
A.3- Support 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4
comm.
commercial
player
fodder
s
producers

B. B.1- Continue 1 1 1 1 1 1
Increa breeding

233
se research at
produc TALIRI
tion of
special B.2- Increase 4 6 8 9 11 13
ised specialised
and animal
improv production at
ed LMUs
breeds
B.3- Scale NAIC 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
semen
production and
insemination

B.4- Establish 3 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

community
breeding
programmes

C. C.1- Construct 9 9 9 14 14
Improv 3,000 dip tanks
e
animal C.2- Increase 42 46 50 55 38 39 40
health vaccine
quality production and
and distribution
covera
C.3- Expand TVI 11 11 11
ge
vaccine
production
capacity

D. D.1- Upgrade 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Expan and expand
d traceability
livesto system
ck
tracea
bility
platfor
m

E. E.1- Upgrade 1 1 1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Improv and construct
e new MCCs
offtake
rates E.2- Pilot and 0.7 0.1 0.1 25 25 50
throug scale
h community
MCCs small ranches
&
small
ranche
s

TOTAL 60 69 71 79 101 91 119 3 4 4 5 5 6 6

234
Risks & mitigation

• Climate change could exacerbate challenges in producing commercial fodder,

especially during prolonged dry seasons, which will have downstream effects on
animal quality (e.g., less feed available for fattening services)

o Prepare for prolonged drought seasons by storing fodder as hay during wet
season, to ensure availability of adequate feed year-around

o Innovate on fodder seed varieties at TALIRI to create seeds that are more
adaptable to changing climate conditions, and incentivise private seed
companies to also innovate on fodder seed varieties

• Global supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical risk or other causes could
stifle importation of critical vaccines for most common diseases, such as ECF and
FMD

o Continue to build domestic production capabilities to produce ECF and

FMD vaccines in-house, and evaluate needs to construct additional dip
tanks to help prevent tick-borne diseases such as ECF

• Despite Government efforts to improve red meat production quality in community

small ranches and facilitation of commercial offtake agreements, red meat offtake
rates for niche/export markets could remain low

o Pilot the community small ranch operating model in 3 sites before

scaling-up construction, to understand what is/isn’t going well to meet
commercial offtake requirements, and adapt establishment of new ranches
accordingly

Post-2030

• Scale commercial fodder production based on projected market growth both

domestically and in export markets, using improved domestic seed varieties and
latest production technologies

• Scale community breeding programmes to continue improvements of the

indigenous breed that have highest adaptability to Tanzania’s agro-ecological
context

• Increase domestic milk processing levels to reduce reliance on imported dairy

products and significantly reduce consumption of unpasteurised milk

235
Flagship 6A: Develop traditional cash crops and major food crops through board-led
excellence - Traditional Cash Crops

Context

Tanzania’s traditional cash crops accounted for ~$0.5B in exports in 2022/23. Cash crops are
important for driving economic growth, empowering smallholder farmers, improving market
access and quality, promoting sustainable development, and fostering sectoral coordination in
Tanzania. These crops are mostly produced by smallholder farmers who are generally
organized in cooperatives for ease of accessing inputs, extension services and markets. These
crops generally include 7 crops, each which have their own governing crop board in the
country. This flagship focuses on the 4 crops that are believed to have the opportunity to
provide the greatest impact from specific interventions that can be orchestrated and led by
crop boards to support smallholders in boosting production, quality, and market access. These
crops are coffee, cashew nuts, cotton, and sisal, which accounted for ~$0.45B in exports in
2022/23.

Examples of ongoing initiatives include:

• Coffee: provision of coffee seedlings to small holder farmers in the Kagera region
• Cashew Nuts: creation of new farms in other regions, provision Sulphur dust to control
powdery mildew on cashew trees
• Cotton: piloting of drone-based spraying of pesticides for efficient and cost-effective
crop protection verses the current backpack sprayer method, Board-led annual seed
multiplication
• Sisal: rejuvenation of abandoned farms to make them productive again
Crop-specific context

Coffee: Tanzania is the 4th largest producer of coffee in Africa with 60% Robusta and 40%
premium Arabica. Tanzania has the potential to benefit from the large and growing global
coffee market, valued at 127 billion USD in 2022 and expected to grow at >4.7% to 20230
(compounded annually). However, Tanzania’s own production recently shrank (e.g., in
Kilimanjaro) due to ageing plantations, urbanisation, poor aggregation and grading practices,
which reduced productivity and profit margins, hence lowering the incentives of farmers to
invest in its development. While coffee is globally mostly sold based on aroma with over 17
grades, it is sold as a commodity in Tanzania.

Cashew nut: Tanzania is the second largest producer of cashew nuts in Africa, accounting for
~11% of production on the continent. Cashew is a priority for the country given it’s the growth
in the African cashew market (4.5% CAGR expected in 2021-26) value addition potential.
Smallholders constitute 80% of all cashew producers, the remainder being medium scale. Over
95% of cashew produced is exported, with less than 10% processed. The export value,
however, has recently decreased (by 8% in 2020/21-22/23) due to declining market prices.
The productivity of cashews (0.7 MT/ha) is 26% and 86% lower than that of neighbours Kenya
and Malawi, respectively.

Cotton: Less than 3% of cotton produced in Africa comes from Tanzania. At the same time,
the country currently has ~1500 MT of processing capacity of which only 30% is used,
indicating potential to grow processing. Overall production has greatly declined with current
production only able to meet 30% (284k MT) of the available processing capacity of the
ginneries (1,500 MT). Of the total production, only 20% further processed locally. Average

236
productivity is poor (0.7 MT/Ha) compared to farmers adopting good agricultural practices in
the same locality (1.7 MT/ha).

Sisal: Tanzania is the largest producer of sisal in Africa, and second in the world after Brazil.
With growing global demand for sustainable products, Tanzania has the potential to capture
market growth. Current production is about 50,000 MT of sisal fibre, of which over 70% is
exported in fibre form and only 30% is further processed into higher value products such as
sisal sacs, indicating that Tanzania is not effectively capturing the value addition potential.

Challenges

Achieving effective growth of the crops necessitates overall harmonisation of board mandates
to streamline efforts and maximise impact. The challenge is significative due to the low
productivity of the crops compared to peers and best practices, highlighting the need for
targeted interventions. Limited coordination between stakeholders along the value chain
further compounds challenges, exacerbated by inadequate knowledge and enforcement of
established standards. Moreover, there is a disconnect between production practices and
market demands, underscoring the importance of aligning strategies to meet evolving market
requirements. Addressing these issues is complicated by the limited institutional capacity for
effective oversight and impact, emphasising the urgency for comprehensive reforms and
capacity-building initiatives.

Crop-specific challenges

Coffee: Productivity of coffee is 70% lower than neighbours such as Uganda. International
market considers Tanzanian coffee to be of lower quality due to mixing of grades at points of
production and aggregation. Most Agriculture Marketing Co-operative Societies (AMCOS)
focus on boosting production and not grading.

Cashew nut: Most cashew trees are over 40 years old with poor management of top working
and limited use of inputs. Current predominant varieties are vulnerable to pests and diseases.
Almost all cashew apple is thrown away instead of being used to create other products.

Cotton: Key challenge to cotton include very low productivity due to lack of capacity of TARI to
produce enough early generation cotton seeds, poor pest management leading to loss of up
to two-thirds of production and lack of proper soil health management. Additionally, market
price fluctuations combined with high production costs because of poor productivity, leave little
incentive for farmers to invest in the development of the commodity.

Sisal: The sisal industry currently operates at a primary processing capacity of 50,000 MT/year,
despite having a potential harvest of up to 80,000 MT/year. There is a need to increase
production and productivity to meet trends in global market growth and sustainability.
Moreover, there is a need to increase primary processing to meet harvest potential and further
value addition. Only 2% of the entire sisal plant is being used, the rest is discarded. Several
large sisal plantations were abandoned a few years ago and need to be revived.

KPIs

The overall objective of this flagship is to double income obtained from traditional cash crops
by enabling farmers to meet market requirements to improve quality, grading and productivity
through board led orchestration of actors and resources across the value chains. The specific
production targets* are indicated below.

237
*Production targets are for the full potential; for a breakdown of this full potential into a) the
minimum required to achieve 10% annual growth by 2030 and b) the additional opportunity,
see the commodity-specific deep dives for additional details.

Initiatives

Component Initiative

A. Raise production A.1 - Orchestrate the cotton value chain across flagships with
of cotton to 1000k a focus on:
MT
- Support for extension services by developing agronomic
standards, maintaining board hired extension service providers (1
per district with 36 in total currently) and coordinating with local
government agency extension officers

- Facilitation of input support via ginneries, in which farmers receive

inputs as a loan which is later deducted from the value of their
production (inputs include sprayers, weeding tools, pesticides,
improved seeds, etc.)

- Coordination and financing R&D of cotton seed breeding with

TARI and facilitating and financing the multiplication of cotton seeds
via TOSCI-trained and -certified ward-level seed multipliers

A.2 — Pilot and build business case for spraying cotton farms
with drones by:

- Proving effectiveness, financial viability

- Then facilitating transfer of operations to private players

B. Raise production B.1 - Orchestrate the sisal value chain across flagships with a
of sisal to 202k MT focus on:

238
 - Facilitation of investment in decorticators to increase primary
processing of sisal leaves to fibre to match field production

- Facilitation of input support via cooperatives, including the

distribution of subsidized seedlings to smallholder farms to increase
cultivation

- Increase in area under cultivation by turning previously abandoned

estates into productive land through requisition from private sector
and redistribution to small holder farmers to incentivize long-term
investment in the commodity

B.2 — Increase in secondary processing, local utilisation of sisal

fibre and byproducts by exploring and promoting new business
opportunities in sisal to private sector to capture additional value
from sisal fibre products and the remaining 98% of the plant that is
currently discarded

C. Raise production C.1 - Orchestrate the coffee value chain across flagships with
of coffee to 300k MT a focus on:

- Board-led increase in productivity through the development of

extension, including:

- Board-funded training of TOT personnel via TACRI who

provide extension services to farmers

- Rejuvenating of old plantations by promoting practices such

as pruning and stomping through LGA extension officers

- Developing agronomic standards

- Promoting GAP

- Maintaining board-hired extension service providers

- Board-led increase in input access, production and distribution:

- Developing a fertilizer credit scheme to ensure access of

fertilizer to smallholder farmers

- Board-funded R&D and breeding of improved seeds via

TACRI, multiplication of coffee seedlings via contracts with
multiple nurseries, distribution of seedlings to farmers via AMCOS
by LGAs

- Board-led registration of farmers and stakeholders, including

registering contract farmer agreements to enable off takers to
provide inputs (fertilizer, pesticide) to farmers in exchange for their
production

- Intensification of cultivation of existing coffee farms, and

establishment of new coffee estates, both in traditionally grown
and open areas for coffee

239
 C.2 - Improve coffee quality and value addition by:

- Promotion of the use of central pulping units

- Establishment coffee certification institutions

- Improvement of the participation of young people and women in

coffee production

D. Raise production D.1 - Orchestrate the cashew nut value chain across flagships
of cashew nuts to with a focus on
1000k MT
- Support of extension services, especially in GAP, by:

- Developing agronomic standards and maintaining Board-hired

extension service providers

- Cashew board-led training of trainers (TOT) programme run

by TARI to train LGA extension officers on GAP to promote GAP,
including agronomic practices, disease and pest control,
rehabilitation of old abandoned cashew farms (e.g., pruning and top
working)

- Facilitation of input support via cooperatives (e.g. sulfur)

- Facilitation of production and distribution of seedlings for new and

existing plantations in the following ways:

- Board finances and procures improved polyclonal seeds for

cashew nuts

- Board provides improved seeds to LGAs to create nurseries

and produce seedlings through farmer groups registered by TOSCI,
which are financed by the Cashew board

- LGAs distribute seedlings to farmers for free

- Board-led expansion of land under cashew cultivation in new

cashew growing regions through the following procedure:

- LGAs collect and provide Cashew board expressions of

interest to start cashew cultivation

- TARI conducts surveys and feasibility studies to identify new

high potential areas for cashew expansion

- LGA then collect and provide the Cashew board the amount of
farmers interesting in growing cashew and their total land available

- Cashew board estimates demand for seedlings and

establishes nurseries to supply those seedlings through the LGAs

Cost

Government cost, M$ Private sector cost, M$

240
Compo Initiative 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
nent

A. A.1 — 10 9 9 8 8 7 7
Raise Orchestr
product ation of
ion of the
Cotton cotton
to 1Mn value
MT chain
across
flagships

A.2 — 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Pilot and
build
business
case for
spraying
cotton
farms
using
drones

B. B.1 — 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Raise Orchestr
product ation of
ion of the sisal
Sisal to value
202k chain
MT across
flagships

B.2 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 2
Increase
secondar
y
processi
ng and
local
utilisatio
n of sisal
fibre and
byproduc
ts

C. C.1 — 4 8 6 4 3 1.4 0.2

Raise Orchestr
product ation of
ion of the
Coffee coffee
to 300k value
MT chain
across
flagships

241
 C.2 - 0 0 2 2 2 2 2
Improve
coffee
quality
and
value
addition

D. D.1 — 12 12 12 5 5 5 4.5
Raise Orchestr
product ation of
ion of the
Cashew cashew
nuts to nut value
1Mn MT chain
across
flagships

TOTAL 28 31 32 22 20 18 17 2 2 3 3 3 3 2

242
Flagship 6B: Develop traditional cash crops and major food crops through board-led
excellence — Major food crops

Context

Major food crops include maize, paddy, wheat, pulses, cassava, banana, and others, all of
which are mostly produced by smallholder farmers who are generally not organized. They tend
to have lower income due to low productivity and limited access to finance, quality inputs,
extension services and organized market. Maize, cassava and banana make up 60% of the
total crop production volume in the country, with maize being the most widely planted crop
grown by >60% of farming households and responsible for 40% of the country’s caloric intake.

In terms of area under cultivation, Maize is cultivated across 4.9mn Ha across Tanzania,
covering almost 33% of total area cultivated 99.7% of which is my small holder farmers. The
same can be seen in paddy farming where almost 99.3% of land cultivated for paddy is my
small holder farmers.

However, production of major food crops has grown at an average rate of 6.6% per annum
over the last three years. Beans are a particularly strong crop for Tanzania, with the country
being the largest producer in Africa, representing about 18% of the continent’s production.
Maize has seen a growth of 7% per annum, whereas paddy production has experienced a 7%
annual decline. The drop in production during 2021/2022, attributed to high fertilizer prices and
unreliable rainfall, prompted government interventions such as fertilizer subsidies and the
expansion of irrigation.

Unlike the traditional cash crops, the remainder of the crops in Tanzania, such as the ones
covered in this flagship, have not had a dedicated body to oversee their development in the
past. The government has recently set-up the Cereals and Other Produce Regulatory Authority
(COPRA) with the hope to fill this gap. The specific role that COPRA will play in the various
crops and how it will impact their growth is currently being discussed. This flagship hence
covers interventions that could possibly be undertaken by COPRA or by any of the other entity.
The role that COPRA would play is dependent on the final design of the governance and
mandate of COPRA.

The government has already been engaged in activities to develop these crops.

Examples of ongoing initiatives include:

• Creation of COPRA to support the development of crops not under existing traditional
cash crop boards
• Increase production and distribution of quality, improved, and affordable inputs through
subsidy programmes i.e., Seeds, Fertilizers, IPPM techniques.
• Collection and dissemination of market intelligence via cross-agency collaboration
(e.g., Rural Entrepreneurs Network Tanzania)
• Creation of value chain specific development strategies (e.g., paddy, pulses, etc.)
This flagship focuses on the specific interventions that are needed to support smallholders in
their struggle to increase incomes by ensuring a market environment in which actors across
entire value chains of priority crops can enjoy a thriving market by boosting farmer productivity,
enforcement of standards, market fairness, transparency, and improved export efficiency. The
main priority crops focused on in this flagship include Maize, Paddy and Pulses (which includes
kidney beans, pigeon peas & green gram).

243
However, the initiatives under this flagship also span across other priority crops that have been
highlighted across other flagships and commodity pages. These include sorghum, banana,
avocado, cloves, tomato, Irish potato, cassava, sunflower and sesame.

Crop-specific context

Maize: Maize is one of Tanzania’s largest commodities; it constitutes 40% of caloric intake, is
grown on an estimated 4 million ha of land and consumes 50% of all fertilizer used in the
country. Maize is also a major crop on the continent, with the market estimated at 41.4 billion
USD and expected to reach 57.3 bn USD by 2029 (6.7% CAGR). It is also considered the
staple food for most of Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, maize is an important smallholder
commodity, as 85% of all Tanzanian maize is produced by smallholders across the entire
country, mostly for subsistence. ~3 million farming households are engaged in maize
production (out of a total of ~5 million engaged in crops overall) and the commodity takes up
>8% of agricultural GDP.

Paddy: Paddy is an important staple commodity in Tanzania, responsible for 4% of total

AgGDP and 20% off cereals AgGDP in 2022, grown by 1.3 million households, harvested on
1.5 million ha and taking up 90% of all irrigated land. In Sub-Saharan Africa, rice consumption
is to grow by 6% a year, but most African countries are not self-sufficient producers, indicating
an opportunity for Tanzania to export paddy. In Tanzania itself, paddy is the fastest growing
cereal in terms of consumption, (growing 12% annually) and features a high level of farmer
organisation (given the requirements of irrigation farming). There are ongoing efforts to
improve the subsector (e.g., improvements in land, water, irrigation, infrastructure) and
opportunities stemming from urbanisation and demand for high-value rice.

Kidney beans: Kidney beans come in many varieties in Tanzania, including rose coco, red
kidney beans, and light speckled, all of which are exported. Other varieties (e.g., sugar, yellow,
white, red speckled) are highly consumed by Tanzanians. Given Tanzania’s large amount of
land and diverse climate, there is potential to plant kidney beans throughout the year (with
irrigation) in different regions (so as to compete with seasonal imports). While Tanzania is the
main market for kidney beans (prices have increased recently because of rising local demand),
there is also a regional market. Large foreign investors have been involved in the value chain.

Pigeon peas: Tanzania's pigeon pea sub-sector has been growing over the past two years. At
the same time, there is growing global demand, especially from the Indian subcontinent (e.g.,
India’s imports grew 34% to 1.2 million MT in 2023-24). Tanzania is second only to
Mozambique and Malawi in Africa for pigeon pe production, with potential to produce 400
MT/year. The sector has stronger standards than other beans given that the largest market is
India. Given the large volume and importance for export, quality-promoting practices are
maintained, including at the farm level. The three primary varieties are those grown,
Morogoro/Dodoma, Mtwara and Arusha, the lattermost being the preferred in India. There are
ongoing initiatives to better structure the market and promote processing.

Green gram: Green gram is one of Tanzania's key pulses, being among the commodities
highlighted in the Pulses Roadmap and having a high production potential (including the ability
to be grown in rice-cultivating areas). Globally, demand for mung bean is increasing,
particularly in India (50% of consumption) and Asia-Pacific generally (75%), driven in part by
increasing demand for vegan food (a market that will grow by ~11% p.a. to 2030) The primary
export destinations are India, Pakistan (used for direct consumption) and Europe (used for
sprouting). India has begun using a quota system in importing green gram from African

244
countries, moving export demand to other Asian countries. While green gram is consumed in
Tanzania, it is difficult to store.
Contexts for other crops indicated in this section are covered under the specific commodity
pages (including sorghum, banana, avocado, cloves, tomato, Irish potato, cassava, sunflower,
sesame).

Challenges
The food crops sub-sector faces multifaceted challenges, ranging from a lack of clear
coordination among stakeholders along the value chain to overall low productivity across
various crops compared to best practices. These issues are compounded by limited knowledge
and enforcement mechanisms to ensure compliance with established standards, further
exacerbated by a misalignment of production practices with market requirements and demand.
Moreover, there's a glaring gap in institutional capacity, hindering effective oversight and
impactful interventions within the sector. Addressing these interconnected challenges
demands a holistic approach encompassing enhanced collaboration, knowledge
dissemination, regulatory enforcement, market-driven strategies, and bolstered institutional
capabilities.
Crop-specific challenges

Maize: Maize in Tanzania is of low yield and quality due to the limited adoption of best practices
and lack of quality inputs. There are many local varieties of the commodity, and this can be a
challenge for quality control. Additionally, quality and food safety standards are poorly
implemented. Farmers themselves are often not organized into groups, limiting their access to
inputs, finance, and the market. Climate change heavily impacts maize, exposing it to drought
and unpredictable weather.

Paddy: Paddy in Tanzania faces disadvantages in certain parts of the value chain. At the
production level, cultivation is often highly dependent on rain and lacks quality inputs (mainly
improved seeds and fertilizer, machinery). The commodity suffers from poor quality on account
of inadequate storage infrastructure. In processing and marketing there is an opportunity to
improve value addition and regional branding.

Kidney beans: The challenges with kidney beans in Tanzania begin at the farm, where
producers lack knowledge in planting practices and improved varieties, with many planting only
locally-consumed seeds. Low quality of inputs and climate change effects lead to low
productivity. Seed distribution is hampered by the lack of infrastructure. Once harvested, beans
often come mixed together (leading to low quality in the absence of agronomic guidelines),
requiring labour-intensive sorting to make them export ready. Pests (e.g., weevils) are also a
challenge. Furthermore, post-harvest management at the household level is inadequate and
price uncertainties in export can create income instability.

Pigeon peas: Tanzania's pigeon pea subsector features challenges with the production,
distribution, and handling of improved seeds. Combined with climate change effects, this lack
of access to quality inputs results in low productivity (1.6x less than Malawi’s). The pigeon peas
also tend to have a high moisture content (17 - 20% vs. the standard of <14%), which causes
problems in processing. As with other pulses, the value chain also has challenges in post-
harvest management, price fluctuations, market access and the absence of agronomic
guidelines.

245
Green gram: Green gram in Tanzania has quality issues reflected in the small size of the beans
(smaller than the typical 4 mm diameter), the fact that the beans are often mixed with other
parts of the plant, and the beans’ discoloration. Inputs are poorly distributed and agronomic
standards are often not followed (e.g., grains are re-used to make seeds, which can lead to
the spread of pests and disease). Farmers often do not have the knowledge or capacity to
follow modern agronomic techniques. As a result of these various factors and climate change
effects, productivity for this commodity is low.

Challenges for other crops indicated in this section are covered under the specific commodity
pages (including sorghum, banana, avocado, cloves, tomato, Irish potato, cassava, sunflower,
sesame).
KPIs

The objective of this flagship is to double income obtained from major food crops by enabling
farmers and other actors to meet market requirements to improve quality, grading, productivity
and overall fairness and market transparency through board-led excellence. The KPIs* at the
yearly level for maize, paddy and pulses (soya bean, kidney beans, pigeon peas and green
gram) are indicated below. The targets for the other crops mentioned are covered in more
detail across other flagships (e.g., commercialization) or in their specific commodity pages.

246
*Production targets are for the full potential; for a breakdown of this full potential into a) the
minimum required to achieve 10% annual growth by 2030 and b) the additional opportunity,
see the commodity-specific deep dives.

KPIs for other crops indicated in this section are covered under the specific commodity pages
(including sorghum, banana, avocado, cloves, tomato, Irish potato, cassava, sunflower,
sesame).

Initiatives

Components Initiatives

E. Grow E.1 - Orchestrate priority value chains across flagships with a

agricultural focus on boosting certified seed production (to 251k MT), driving
production and farmers and stakeholders' registration (to register 9.9 million),
exports for supporting farmer organisation (increase agricultural entities to 1.7
cereals and million, train 2750 cooperatives in TMX, provide 2750 digital weight
other produce scales), provision of inputs, improved extension (add 4,400 additional
with a focus on extension officers), on-farm soil mapping (cover 3 million ha), area
maize, paddy, under irrigation (cover 1170k ha), warehouses using receipt system
pulses, wheat, (increase to 2750), agro-processing (set up one), export gateways
sunflower, (decrease airport and seaport waiting times to 20-30 min and 2 days,
pulses, soya respectively), strategic food reserve (increase to 3 million KT), etc.
beans, banana,
avocado, cloves E2. Improve quality of produce by creating and enforcing standards
for storage in warehouses (e.g., community-based rural storage
facilities for paddy), post-harvest infrastructure and handling (e.g.,
affordable pre-cooling, storage, and transport facilities with proper
hygiene and temperature control for avocado), with a focus on priority
crops (e.g., grading and aflatoxin for wheat) and agronomic practices at
farmer or extension level

E.3 - Ensure fairness and efficacy of contract farming by developing

contract farming templates, standardized contract registry, minimum
contract terms, to promote increased production, market access and
responsible sourcing

E.4 - Create market transparency through various price discovery

mechanisms such as a commodity exchange framework, collection and
provision of market intelligence on specific commodities, and other
means to promote equitable trade

E.5 - Increase efficiency of export of food crops through targeted

audits of actors and processes that are associated with export gateways
and co-creating performance based KPIs that enable improvement of
these processes (e.g., time taken to achieve SPS certifications, truck
turnaround time at ports)

Costing
247
 Government cost, M$ Private sector cost, M$

Compo Initiative 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
nent 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

E. E.1 - 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2 3 3

Grow Orchest
agricul rate
tural across
produc flagship
tion s with a
and focus
export on
s for Agricult
cereals ure
and Master
other Plan
produc targets
e with
a focus E.2 - 1.6 2 3 4 5 6 6
on Improve
maize, quality
paddy, of
pulses, produce
wheat, E.3 - 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
sunflo Ensure
wer, fairness
pulses, and
soya efficacy
beans, of
banana contract
, farming
avocad
o, E.4 - 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
cloves Create
market
transpar
ency

E.5 - 1.2 1.8 2.4 3 4 4 5

Increase
efficienc
y of
export
of food
crops

TOTAL 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

Risks & Mitigation and Evolution

248
Crop Risk > Mitigation Evolution Beyond 2030

Cashew nut Market fluctuations in raw cashew > Ability to export more processed
Export more processed cashew cashew, moving away from raw
cashew
Limited investment in processing >
Provide incentives for investment A thriving SME ecosystem to
and engage with the private sector to process and market cashew
understand and unlock barriers products
Additional value added products
(e.g., cashew nut oil, cashew shell
cake, cashew husk mulch)

Coffee Price volatility in the global coffee High level of value addition in the
market > Diversify coffee products to country in order to sell roasted
include specialty and value-added coffee as opposed to raw
coffee varieties, targeting niche
markets Ability to capture premium global
markets due to the high level of
Threat of coffee plant diseases and product grading (moving away from
pests > Implement integrated pest the mixed coffee) and the
management practices promotion of regional branding
(moving away from selling coffee
only as a commodity)
Sisal Market fluctuations in raw sisal > Growth of secondary processing of
Export more processed sisal sisal to make other products for
domestic and export markets (e.g.,
Inability to increase primary
sisal rope, twine, yarn, cordage,
processing to match production
paper, composites, fibreboard, etc.)
growth > Invest in promotion to the
private sector and collaborate with Growth of processing or utilisation
them to ensure a conducive of by-products in order to produce
business environment and incentives additional products such as alcohol
specific to sisal and sugars

Cotton Market fluctuations of cotton lint > Cotton sub-sector able to grow
Move processing of cotton further beyond current targets in order to
into high value products for domestic satisfy all the processing capacity
and export markets and beyond
Continued productivity of cotton > Enhancement of processing to
Look at investing further in high create such products as textiles,
yielding varieties that are also cottonseed oil and meal, cotton
resilient to currents pests and hygiene products, etc.
diseases
Maize Lack of coordination and political will Enhancement of innovation in agri-
to execute interventions > ATO extension services (e.g., bundled
governance and coordination services) to increase adoption of
GAP
Resource/budget constraints (incl.
skilled professionals) > IFPRI model
to support recalibration as required

249
 Limited adoption by farmers > Production of few market-led
Utilizing the extension and local varieties that allow farmers to fetch
government systems to drive premium export markets
adoption
Structured market systems to
increase price transparency and
help farmers receive higher prices

Paddy Climate change risks > Introduce Increased commercial-led

climate-smart agriculture, early production
warning systems
Enhanced branding of Tanzanian
Continued lack of enforcement of rice
agronomic best practices >
Increase in investment (across the
Increased capacity building through
value chain), leading to new
extension
technologies for seeds,, post-
Increased external/imported harvest
competition > Use regional blocs for
Structured market systems
bilateral agreements, investment
promotion Coordinated efforts supported
through digitalisation to create
Changes in consumer behaviour >
Deploy change management
campaigns and monitoring systems
Kidney bean Climate, pests and diseases > Increased production that will make
Introduce CSA practices, new seed Tanzania a regional breadbasket
varieties, improved infrastructure
Structured and well-coordinated
Price volatility due to market market system
dynamics > Promote market
Adoption of advanced technology
diversification, market information
systems (MIS)
Global competition > Improve
branding, develop new varieties,
enter into bilateral agreements
Quality seed systems (production
and distribution), resulting in
unqualified products > Increase
capacity of ASA/TOSCI/TARI to do
reproduction, develop market
information systems
Pigeon peas Climate, pests and disease > Structured market systems
Introduce CSA practices, new seed
varieties, improved infrastructure Leader in Africa in pigeon pea
production/export
Post-harvest losses > Invest in
Value addition across the country
infrastructure
Policy issues (e.g., on the quota Increased investment in the supply
chain (production, processing,
system) and over-reliance on the
value addition)

250
 Asian export market > Diversify Pigeon pea elevated to a strategic
export markets commodity
Global price volatility > Diversify
toward local consumption and the
use as protein source after
processing

Green gram Climate, pests and disease > Structured market systems
Introduce CSA practices, new seed
varieties, improved infrastructure Leader in Africa in pigeon pea
production/export
Post-harvest losses > Invest in
infrastructure Value addition across the country

Policy issues (e.g., on the quota Increased investment in the supply

chain (production, processing,
system) and over-reliance on the
value addition)
Asian export market > Diversify
export markets Green gram elevated to a strategic
Global price volatility > Diversify commodity (given that it can
toward local consumption and the substitute beans and also find a
market in the EU and regional
use as protein source after
AfCFTA markets)
processing

Risks, mitigations and evolution beyond 2030 for the other crops indicated in this section are
covered under the specific commodity pages (including: sorghum, banana, avocado, cloves,
tomato, Irish potato, cassava, sunflower, sesame)

251
Flagship 7: Remove agriculture-specific regulatory barriers to conducting business
(incl. exports), and scale AGCOT* model to 4 corridors as an implementation
mechanism for policy changes

*SAGCOT has been transformed into AGCOT (Agricultural Growth Corridors of Tanzania)

Context

While agricultural business opportunities in Tanzania are numerous, investors note that
initiating and managing agribusinesses is more costly and time-consuming compared
to peer countries, due to several reasons:

• Land acquisition procedures: For foreign investors seeking land, it may take 2-3
years to transfer land from village ownership to the Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC),
the required step for foreign investors to acquire land without local partners

• Registration time for critical inputs: Registering essential inputs like seeds can take
up to three years, costing around $15,000—five times more than in Zambia

• Duplicity of export fees/mandates: Multiple entities collect fees and are required to
issue permits/licenses for exports of specific commodities (e.g., 4 different certifications
are required to export the same consignment of red meat)

• Potentially outdated certification requirements: Some certifications for export of

specific commodities (e.g., tea, coffee) are required by Tanzania, but not importing
nations, such as a Certificate of Radioactive Analysis

• Limited infrastructure to meet certification standards: Global GAP certification is

required for importation of most ag. commodities into European markets, however there
is only one certification body in Tanzania today, leading most exporters to hire agents
for certification from Kenya (takes up to 1 month and costs ~$4,000)

• Unpredictability of the business environment: Unannounced tax/health & safety

audits are a repeated concern amongst many investors, and sudden export bans—
implemented to meet food reserve requirements—creates significant investment risks.

These challenges are compounded by the involvement of multiple entities in initiating and
managing agricultural businesses, with limited coordination mechanisms to address overlaps
in mandates and common barriers. In response, three initiatives are underway: the Blueprint
for policy overhaul, scaling of the Agriculture Growth Corridor of Tanzania (AGCOT)
model, and recent amendments/ongoing capacity building in the Office of the Treasury PPP
Unit. The Blueprint is an ongoing policy initiative from the President’s Office Planning
Commission (POPC) that aims to identify, recommend, and implement policy changes that will
lower the time and cost of conducting business in Tanzania, including ag.-specific barriers.
AGCOT is a proven public-private partnership model, that takes a cluster- and commodity-
based approach to convene critical stakeholders, to build partnerships across the supply chain,
and to resolve issues both real-time and through escalation to ensure agribusinesses can
operate efficiently. Finally, the PPP unit aims to attract new private sector capital by aligning
efforts and coordinating funds across various Government departments, and the government
amended the National PPP Act to boost private sector participation (e.g., allows contracting
authorities to procure private party participation directly and provides new tax incentives for
PPP investors).

Objective and KPIs

252
By 2030, agribusiness investors can efficiently start and operate businesses aligned with
international best practices, equipped with clear guidelines and procedures for exporting
products and importing necessary inputs, and without concerns about sudden changes in the
business environment disrupting operations. They are well-supported by Government
entities/organisations representing their interests, to navigate challenges that may arise while
doing business.

253
Initiatives

Component Initiative

A.1 - Mitigate largest ag.-specific barriers to conducting

business through continuation of the Blueprint initiative for
policy and regulatory overhaul. Specific activities will include
A. Reduce ongoing review and assessment of commodity-specific
duplicity of requirements/procedures by the Blueprint task force, and
fees/manda recommendations of how to change current guidelines to minimise
tes and time/cost of conducting business. Implementation of
specific recommendations will require technical support for relevant entities
export (including feasibility assessments, strategy support for procedural
certificatio changes) and in some cases will require judicial review
n A.2 — Establish consistent platform for feedback between
requiremen private sector and President’s Office, by elevating the role of
ts in the TNBC Agriculture Working Group, to ensure that Blueprint
priority ag. policy changes are taking effect. Empower the Ag. Working Group
commoditi as the primary liaison to gather ongoing feedback, through
es designation from the President’s Office. Ag. Working Group will relay
challenges and recommendations to the Blueprint Task Force once
per quarter, ensuring a continuous cycle of refinement and updates
to Blueprint recommendations

B.1 - Scale AGCOT model to 3 new corridors to continue

investment brokerage and provision of tailored supports. In
each new corridor, identify new clusters of agribusiness actors
(including companies, specialised suppliers, smallholder groups) and
understand greatest needs and opportunities to make businesses run
B. Scale
more efficiently. Based on needs/opportunities assessment, deploy
AGCOT
tailored support, which could include formation of new partnerships,
model to
escalation of issues to relevant government entities, hosting of cross-
strengthen
sector stakeholder convenings, or creation of new compact
issue
agreements
resolution,
& B.2 — Streamline resolution of challenges faced by private
streamline sector through establishment of central portal for issue
brokerage resolution, that is integrated with existing AGCOT portal and digital
channels across other Ministries. Ensure widespread awareness and
accessibility of the digital portal to all private sector stakeholders, and
house the portal in TIC. During first 1-3 years of roll-out, President’s
Office and Ag. Working Group could provide oversight to ensure
platform is working effectively/ensure that follow-ups for issue
resolution are being made

C. Promote C.1.- Assess and strengthen capacity and capabilities to

deploymen customise PPP proposals for agriculture-specific projects.
t of Evaluate existing capacity of PPP Unit in MoF (including staff, roles,

254
 customise PPP frameworks, project pipeline, targets) and understand what is
d PPPs for required to attract additional investment* for ag. projects.
agriculture-
specific *Evaluation of current capacity and investable projects will also
determine target for # of PPPs deployed for ag.-specific projects
projects
C.2.- Build capacity for customised leasing and contract
agreements for agriculture projects. Once capacity building efforts
have ramped up in C.1., explore opportunities to build out an entity
that is dedicated to leasing and contracting agreements, in parallel.
Identify options for where entity could sit, its governance structure,
and required capacity to meet agreed-upon targets

Costing

Gov cost, M$ Private sector cost, M$

Compone 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
nt Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

[Link] A.1 -
duplicity Mitigate
of largest
0.7 1 1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
fees/man ag-
dates and specific
specific barriers
export
certificati A.2 —
on Establish
requirem consiste
ents in nt
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
priority dialogue
ag. for
commodi feedback
ties

B.1 -
[Link] Scale
AGCOT AGCOT
model to 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 6 9 11 14 16 16
model to
strengthe 3 new
n issue corridors
resolutio
n, & B.2 —
streamlin Establish
e central
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
brokerag portal for
e issue
resolution

255
 C.1-
Strengthe
n
capacity
1 1 1 1 1 2 2
to
customis
e PPP
proposals

C.2.-
C. Build
Promote capacity
deployme for
nt of customis
customis ed 1 1 1 1 2 2
ed PPPs leasing
for and
agricultur contract
e-specific agreemen
projects ts

TOTAL 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 4 6 9 11 14 16 16

Note: Exact split for costing of activity B.1 between gov’t, dev. partners, and private
sector is unknown

Risks & mitigation

• If duplicative fees are successfully removed in the process of streamlining

mandates for conducting agribusiness, lost revenue could be made up for in
collection of new fees, exacerbating the initial challenge of too many fees being
collected

o Maintain ongoing POPC oversight to ensure that new fees are not
suddenly enacted to make up for lost revenue (even beyond Blueprint
implementation), and provide support to relevant entities to understand
how lost revenue can be accounted for

• Policy changes that require institutional review could be delayed or

unsuccessful (e.g., current procedures for transferring land)

o Strengthen the case for policy change via presentation of cost-benefit

analyses under different scenarios (e.g., with support from IFPRI), and
independent, external review of international best practices

Post-2030

256
 • Scale up ACOT operations in each corridor, until each agribusiness actor is
formally part of an AGCOT cluster (opening up access to commodity compacts,
support from AGCOT relationship managers, etc.)

• Provide additional capacity support to LGAs to amend by-laws (for regulation

of specific commodities, cess collection, harmonisation of clauses, etc.) and
ensure consistency of procedures/requirements across LGAs

Flagship 8: Unlock prerequisites for commercialisation of wheat, soya beans,

poultry, aquaculture and fertilisers

257
Context

The acceleration of commercial activities for select commodities will allow Tanzania
to sustainably improve nutrition (poultry, aquaculture, soya beans), decrease
undernourishment (wheat), and boost smallholder productivity (fertilizers). However,
accelerated commercial activity in each of these prioritized commodities requires
prerequisite support that must be in place to attract investment from the private sector
(e.g., tax breaks for construction of new production facilities, plans for guaranteed offtake).

Wheat

Wheat is one of Tanzania’s most imported commodities, with 1.3 million MT imported
in 2021/22, representing 96% of total demand. Wheat is a critical commodity given its
importance for national food systems self-reliance and import substitution. Local
production involves the participation of a wide variety of producers, from smallholder to
large commercial players. The small amount produced locally (only 87,000 MT in 2022/23)
suffers from low productivity and other challenges. It is hampered by the lack of
improved seed varieties with the right gluten content, high production costs,
inadequate rural storage, competition from imports, and climate-related challenges
such as drought and heavy rainfall. However, it is critical to boost domestic production
to ensure a sustainable food supply across the country. Accelerating commercial wheat
activities would help address some of these challenges and reduce reliance on wheat
imports.

Soya

Soya is a critical component of animal feed, which is required to accelerate

commercial activities of poultry and aquaculture (~30% of poultry feed is comprised of
soya). However, Tanzania has low soya bean production, leading to high rates of
importation (~52,000 MT was imported in 2021/2022, or 91% of total demand). Specifically
for poultry feed, in 2022/2023, ~37,000 tons of soya beans were required to feed broiler
birds, yet overall national production was only ~14,000 tons—both for feed and for human
consumption. Low production volumes and high rates of importation are driving up the
price of animal feeds. Therefore, accelerating commercial activity in soya bean
production could help unlock the protein and aquaculture value chains by lowering the cost
of feed.

Poultry

Chicken meat is significant source of lean protein, and poultry raising is significantly
less carbon and land intensive than most other livestock rearing activities. However, per
chicken meat consumption is low: per capita consumption is ~1.1 kg, vs. 2 kg in Kenya and
7 kg in Zimbabwe. This low consumption is largely due to the high price of chicken meat,
which is fuelled by high chicken feed prices (~70% of the total cost of raising birds).
Nevertheless, high potential exists to scale commercial broiler production to increase
national protein intake in a sustainable manner, by fostering greater chicken meat
258
consumption through price reduction. By leveraging the operations of the largest ~3-5
existing poultry players and supporting them with tax breaks for operational scale-
up, Tanzania could more than double per capita poultry consumption by 2030.

Aquaculture

Fish is also a significant source of lean protein, and scaling aquaculture development
offers a pathway to sustainably boosting protein consumption nationwide. However, the
aquaculture sector is very small (<0.1% of ag. GDP) but has high growth potential with
~58 km² for freshwater and 64k km² for marine areas suitable for aquaculture. Productivity
also has a potential to be increased as production cost of tilapia is estimated at 2.2 to
2.4 USD /kg vs 1.49 USD in Kenya, due to limited access to inputs, including limited
supply of feed (i.e., ~6k tons1 available vs ~26k tons of demand), and shortage of quality
fingerlings.

Fertilizer

Fertilizers are critical for crop production, and a consistent, domestic supply of
fertilizers are required to enable a sustainable food supply, given the ability of global
shocks to disrupt international supply chains. However, today 90%+ of fertilizers are
imported, creating heavy reliance on external market and high prices. Acceleration of
commercial activity in fertilizers to increase access to raw materials (with a focus on
environmentally friendly raw material sources) and to expand domestic fertilizer
blending capacity would significantly enhance fertilizer security.

Objective and KPIs

By 2030, commercial production of prioritised commodities will increase by unlocking

prerequisites to attract private investment.

259
N.B.: 2030/31 targets indicated for wheat and soya bean are for the full potential
production, composed of a) the minimum target required to reach 10% growth by 2030 and
b) additional opportunity. For more detail on the breakdown, see the specific commodity
pages for the two crops.

260
Initiatives

Component Initiative

A.1 - Orchestrate land flagship to identify and allocate up to

200kHa of land for commercial wheat and soya farming
A. Wheat and A.2 - Conduct market-led identification of preferred wheat
soya and soya seed varieties, coordinate with TOSCI to facilitate
certification, importation of seed volume necessary for
commercial farming

A.3 - Support the setting up and initial operations of

domestic producers to drive scale and lower cost of operations,
for a pre-determined time window – exact policy vehicle to be
determined (e.g., de-risking financing mechanisms, import
quotas, targeted subsidies, etc.)

B.1 - Elevate TCPA into primary steering committee, to

consistently liaise with gov't on requirements to scale
poultry production and assess shifts in consumer
preferences. Dialogue will include exploration of opportunities
for government to help de-risk scale-up of commercial poultry
production and joint-review of changing consumer demand to
inform evolving targets for scale-up (including production
quantities and where)

B.2 — Construct 6 feed mills to produce feed required for

breeding stock, DOC, and broiler birds as part of integrated
vertical farms. Once capacity of existing feed mills has been
met, construct new facilities to meet requirement of ~500K
tonnes of poultry feed/year, to collectively feed ~860K parent
B. Poultry stock, 130M DOC, and 130M broiler birds annually. Ensure that
each feed mill has capabilities to mix raw materials into different
feed compositions, depending on the stage of feeding (e.g., feed
starter, feed grower, and feed finisher).

B.3 - Construct 6 breeder farms and hatcheries amongst

existing commercial poultry players, to increase consistent
supply of broiler DOC. Breeder farms will be used to manage
~860K parent stock, and each parent stock will produce an
estimated150 DOC over its lifetime of ~44 weeks. Breeder farm
facility construction will include sheds, watering, feeding, and egg
collection systems. Hatchery facility construction will include
temperature-controlled incubators, ventilation systems, and
hatching baskets.

B.4 - Establish and scale commercial broiler farms to

produce ~130M tons of broiler chicken meat/year and
prepare them for processing. DOC will be transported to

261
 growing facilities, where they will be raised for about 5 weights
under strict biosecurity measures and temperature-controlled
environments. Once birds reach optimal live weight for slaughter,
they will be transported to nearby processing facilities.

C.1 - Implement a stronger regulation framework, including

rigorous environmental management principles for cage culture
practices to safeguard against fish diseases and environment
degradation, complemented with a robust monitoring system.
Implement certifications to assess fingerlings and fish quality
standards. TAFIRI and Aquaculture Development Centres to
focus on breed improvement and mass production of quality
brood stock for private sector fish hatcheries. Revitalize the
Tanzania Fisheries Company (TAFICO).

C.2 - Develop financial incentives and support by setting up a

one-stop-shop to streamline processes (Flagship 7), offering
C.
preferential loans for investors with guarantees, and providing
Aquaculture
equipment tax and duty relief (e.g., cages)

C.3 - As a pilot project in Lake Victoria, promote investment

opportunities to attract investors (e.g., feasibility studies including
environmental impact, profitability)

C.4 — Build, rehabilitate, lease existing government facilities

(i.e., hatcheries incl. marine) to commercial players through
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) arrangements

C.5 - Replicate the different steps in Lake Tanganyika, Lake

Nyasa, and marine water to scale the model

D.1 — Determine imported raw material requirements and

D. Fertilisers
increase to them. These materials include urea/ammonia
(temporarily, dependent on D5), DAP and mineral of
potash/potash chloride by removing administrative bottlenecks
associated with importation e.g., operational, financial (forex),
etc.

D.2 — Determine domestically available raw material

requirements, increase access to them and conduct
feasibility study on the extraction/sourcing. These materials
include phosphate, lime/dolomite, gypsum, organic waste to
ensure there is sufficient supply and access for scaling of
blending capacity in the country.

D.3 — Review policies, for fertiliser pricing, export/import

permits, the subsidy programme to level the playing field
and further increase transparency. The focus would be to
stimulate domestic production, enable local production to
become competitive, increase pricing transparency, increase
262
 adoption, access to locally available high-quality fertiliser at low
cost, ensuring fertiliser security, and enable exports

D.4 — Secure investments to expand fertiliser blending

capacity in the country. This is supported by efforts in D1-D3,
decision on investment needs (e.g., number of plants, type, etc.)
which would inform the type investors to target (e.g., risk
appetite, regional focus/experience, etc.). The approach for
targeting could include collaborations with e.g., AGRF,
Manufacture Africa to set-up deal rooms and linkages to
investors. These efforts would be backed-up by detailed fact
packs or pitch decks

D.5 — Conduct feasibility study on the production of (grey,

blue or green) ammonia in the country focusing on the most
environmentally friendly raw material sources including
natural gas, by-product of cobalt/nickel extraction, or electrolysis.
This is also to be assessed based on environmental impact,
pricing, ability to attract capital, adoption by farmers, business
model for Tanzania's context, demand and coordination with
sectorial ministries (e.g., Ministry of Energy), competitiveness of
the sector to inform import vs. produce decision

D.6 — Secure investment in ammonia production leveraging

resources in the country to realise urea, ammonium sulphate,
or ammonium phosphate, etc., depending on the path selected in
D5 including implementation of policies to ensure investment
profitability and viability to serve the domestic and regional
markets

Costing

Note: In costing table below numbers in parentheses (X) under Gov costs indicate tax
breaks

Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$

Compo 25/2 26/2 27/2 28/2 29/3 30/3 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
nent Initiative 24/25 6 7 8 9 0 1 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
A.1-
Identify
land for
wheat
A. and soya
Wheat farming 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
and
soya A.2-
beans Identify
preferre
d seed
varieties
0.4 1 1 1 1 1 2

263
 A.3-
Support
initial
operation
s 1 1 2 2 2 3 3

TOTAL 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

B.1 -
Elevate
TCPA
into
primary
steering
committe
e 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
B.2 -
Construc
t 6 feed
mills
(2) (3) (3) (2) 9 18 18 9
B. B.3 -
Poultry Construc
t6
breeder
farms
and
hatcherie
s
(4) (9) (9) (4) 24 48 48 24
B.4 -
Establish
and scale
commerc
ial broiler
farms (2) (4) (4) (2) 10 20 20 10

TOTAL (8) (16) (16) (8) 43 86 86 43 0.1 0.1

C.1-
Impleme
nt a
stronger
C. reg.
Aquacul framewor
ture k 0.5 0.5
C.2-
Develop
financial
incentive 1 1 1 1 1
264
 and
support

C.3-Pilot
project in
Lake
Victoria 0.6 0.8 6 8
C.4-
Lease
existing
gov’t
facilities 1 1 1
C.5-
Replicate
steps in
Lake
Tangyani
ka 1 3

TOTAL 1 4 2 2 2 5 6 8
D.1 —
Increase
access to
raw
materials 0 1 1

D.2 —
Conduct
feasibility
study
0.3
D.3 —
Review
policies,
for
fertiliser
pricing
0.1 0.1
D.4 —
Expand
fertiliser
blending
D. capacity
Fertilize in the (108 (108 (108
rs country (54) (76) (97) ) ) ) (108) 150 60 60 60 60 60 60

265
 D.5 —
Conduct
feasibility
study on
environm
entally
friendly
sources
0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
D.6 —
Secure
investme
nt in
ammonia
productio
n Depends on D5
TOTAL 0.4 1 (76) 1 (97) (108) (108) (108) (108) 150 60 60 60 60 60 60

Risks & mitigation

Wheat and Soya

• Delayed price competitiveness > consistently monitor market prices including
major cost drivers of local production, to identify pathways for improved price
competitiveness
• Limited support to attract new private sector capital > assess opportunities
for additional supports by speaking with potential investors and exploring case

Poultry
• Slow/limited increase in consumer preferences for more broiler chicken
meat> consistently assess shifts in consumer preferences vs. price changes
(between TCPA and MLF), before deciding how much to scale up commercial
broiler production
• Delayed productivity improvements in maize/soya for lower-cost poultry
feed > Explore and deploy additional supports to private sector for lower feed
costs (e.g., tax breaks on imported raw materials*)

Aquaculture
• Market volatility as commercial production increases > Diversify markets and
develop future contracts to stabilise prices
• Sudden disease outbreaks > Rely on Early Warning Systems and develop
rapid response protocols

Fertiliser
• Inability to secure investment for ammonia production > Gov and investors
need to collaborate closely to ensure interest are covered
• Uncompetitive price of locally produced fertilisers > Details assessment to
determine profitability and close collaboration with gov’t and investors
266
Post-2030

• Across all commodities, scale up production according to changing market

environment, including changing consumer preferences and feed requirements

• Across all commodities, continue to explore new opportunities for

regional/international export

• In each commodity, explore opportunities/latest ag. technologies to improve

sustainability of operations

Flagship 9: Develop warehouses and market linkages, one agro-industrial

processing cluster and specific commodities processing infrastructure

Context

Current value of agro-processing is estimated at $1.5 Bn in Tanzania, due to lack of

warehouses and market linkages, agro-industrial processing cluster and specific
commodities processing infrastructure:
• Storage infrastructure in Tanzania is inadequate, with only ~2% of needs
covered by improved warehouses, i.e., licensed by Tanzanian warehouse

267
 licensing Board118 (i.e., 60/2750). The process for procuring raw materials through
traditional auctions is often opaque and inefficient, preventing farmers from
accessing fair prices.
• Additionally, there is currently no agro-industrial processing cluster, even
though they would allow to focus on large-scale agricultural production, processing,
and technological integration to enhance the agricultural value chain. The Export
Processing Zones Authority (EPZA) offers the possibility to invest in Special
Economic Zones (Central Government, Local Government, Private) projects with
incentives.
• The infrastructures to process the following commodities are also insufficient:
o Cashew: only 10% to 20% of the 250k MT of raw cashew nuts produced
per year are processed, i.e., 25 to 50k MT. For years, 80 to 90% of the
national harvest has been exported to India for processing, but in the last
decade, Vietnam also began the purchase of Tanzanian cashew nuts.
Because of the low capacity to process raw cashew nuts, Tanzania lost
USD 85 Mn for exporting raw cashew nuts in the 2020/21 season
instead of kernels, also impacting ~63k jobs that could have been created.
o Sisal: there is a processing capacity shortfall of 20k MT, i.e., 50k MT
processing capacity versus production of 70k MT produced per year
expected to increase in the future, i.e., 120k MT estimated to be produced
from 2025. There are only 54 decorticators in Tanzania, mostly old and
functioning at low efficiency.
o Poultry: Poultry raising is the most common livestock-keeping activity, with
more than 4.3M households owning chickens across Tanzania.
However, the absence of government-supported processing facilities
severely limits smallholder chicken farmers, particularly those in
cooperatives, from engaging in commercial-scale operations and
increasing their revenue. Indeed, this gap hinders their ability to access
broader markets and comply with stringent quality and safety standards.
Moreover, there is a high potential for large scale commercial broiler
production (covered in flagship 8) and hence processing.
o Fisheries: Only ~2% of fish landing sites (i.e., 33/1375) are equipped with
necessary handling facilities for fish landing. Moreover, aquaculture
production is expected to increase from 30k MT in 2023 to 150k MT in
2030, presenting significant opportunities for processing. One of the
specific aquaculture opportunities is seaweed as Tanzania is responsible
for 92% of African production, making it the continent's top producer.
Seaweed farming is the country's third largest industry primarily run by
women who make up 80% of the 30,000 farmers the industry employs.
However, there is no seaweed processing factory in Tanzania mainland.
o Dairy: Only 3% of milk is processed in Tanzania today. The capacity of
current processing facilities is only ~800K litters per day, however
processing capacity of 2 million litters/day (i.e., ~700 million litters annually)
is required to get to 10-15% processing rates by 2030. Therefore, there is

118
The Warehouse Receipts System denotes a kind of trade by which commodities are stored in a
Licensed Warehouse(s), the owner of the commodity receives Warehouse Receipts which certifying
the title of deposited commodities as of specific ownership, value, type, quantity and quality (grades).

268
 an additional processing capacity of ~1.2 million litters per day needed
by 2030.
o Packaging: Export markets such as the UK or the EU require packaging
materials to be certified and tested, but most of these materials are not
found locally and must be imported, increasing production costs. One
example of requirements is to minimize the volume/weight of packaging
while meeting safety/hygiene targets.

Objective and KPIs — incremental growth

By 2030, value of agro-processing has potential to increase from $1.5 Bn to $3 Bn by

developing warehouses and market linkages, building one agro-industrial processing
cluster and specific commodities processing infrastructure:

100

269
 Initiatives

Component Initiative

A.1- Warehouse Receipt Regulatory Board to establish 2,750

warehouses by building 1,510 (55%) reliable and strategically
located warehouses, particularly in areas close to farmers:

- Identify key agricultural regions for cashew nuts, peas, soya

beans, coffee, sesame and cotton, poultry and meat
production and forecast the need for warehousing facilities

- Partner with financial institutions (e.g., NMB) to provide

A. Increase support for the implementation of warehouse systems
warehouse
- Collaborate with cooperatives to increase awareness and to
s and
ensure farmers' participation and engagement in the
market
warehouse receipt system
linkages
between A.2 — The remaining 45% warehouses (i.e., 1,240 warehouses) to
farmers be established are existing warehouses that will be rehabilitated.
and The 2,750 warehouses – including the ones built from scratch and
processors/ the rehabilitated - will be provided with a digital weight scale (i.e.,
traders 50% with a full set weight scale and 50% with a weighbridge
platform) to ensure a seamless and transparent process for
procurement of raw materials by tracking crops from the
warehouse to auction. This is to include a receipt system that
captures and transfers weight information digitally, ensuring
traceability/transparency and preventing crop spoilage.

A.3 - Conduct training workshops for cooperatives and warehouse

systems on Tanzania Mercantile Exchange (TMX), which is the first
commodity exchange in Tanzania. The exchange is established to
270
 provide a platform where farmers, traders, exporters, and other
various market actors can access domestic and global markets and
obtain a fair price in selling or buying of commodities. Training
workshops will focus on:

- Raising awareness on the benefits of using Tanzania

Mercantile Exchange (instead of traditional auction
methods), i.e., auction process streamlined with a system
bridging the gap between farmers, cooperatives, and buyers,
fostering a more organised and effective trading
environment.

- Building capacity on procedures to use Tanzania Mercantile

Exchange.

B.1 — Build a team to conduct a targeted needs assessment to

identify financial investors, build trust and attract them by
designing tailored incentives, in collaboration with Tanzania
Investment Centre (TIC). The initiative aims to unlock key
processes, attract investment through a transparent matchmaking
system and proactive issue resolution.

B.2 — Collaborate with private investors identified by providing

operational support and economic and fiscal incentives to ensure
effective operations within these zones, e.g.,
- Streamline the licensing process, making it easier for new
B. Develop an entrants to set up processing units – tackled in ease of doing
agro-industrial business flagship
processing - Provide economic and fiscal incentives, e.g.,10-to-15-year
cluster income tax exemption, export tax exemption for export
products, duty-free imports on capital goods and accessories,
construction materials and all raw materials, subsidised
energy rates to reduce operational costs
B.3 — Support the infrastructure construction of the agro-industrial
processing cluster. The aim is to focus on large-scale agricultural
production, processing, and technological integration to enhance the
agricultural value chain. Government is responsible for building
infrastructure allowing to provide day-to-day operational support
through cold storage units, quarantine facilities, quality control
laboratories, sorting and grading services and implementing
sustainable waste treatment through sewage treatment plant.

C.1 — Provide incentives for medium-sized processing

C. Specific enterprises, e.g., provide subsidised energy rates to reduce
commodity operational costs, implement tax incentives for industrial investments,
processing remove VAT on packaging materials and new technologies.
Incentives should be defined and tailored through a targeted needs
assessment led by Tanzania Investment Centre (TIC).

271
C.2 — Sisal: set up 45 decorticators and brushing machines to
have an additional 150k MT processing capacity by 2030, while
ensuring accessibility from farmers and warehouses locations -
including 15 in Tanga, 2 in Shinyanga, 2 in Mara, 1 in Kilimanjaro, 2 in
Coast, 1 in Singida, 4 in Morogoro and 1 in Simiyua. 40
decorticators aimed to be financed by the private sector including
5 AMCOs and 5 by the government, i.e., Sisal Board (with 3 in
Tanga, 1 in Simiyu and 1 in Morogoro).
C.3 — Cashew nuts: establish an industrial park at Maranje in
Mtwara region to have a processing capacity of 600k MT by 2030.
The park will be funded by Arise company and the Government of
Tanzania to process current production from tradition regions as well
as additional production from arid and semi-arid regions, including
Dodoma, Singida, Kigoma, Morogoro, Iringa, Shinyanga, Tabora,
Katavi, Mbeya, Songwa and Njombe.

C.4 — Chicken: set up 6 commercial processing facilities and 6

government-led processing facilities for Small Holder Farmers in
cooperatives to increase their productivity and market access.
Aim is to have a processing capacity of 260k MT by 2030. Pilots
should focus on priority regions: Iringa, Dar es Salaam and
Kilimanjaro.

C.5 — Fisheries:

- Upgrade fish handling infrastructure (e.g., landing sites)

including for dagaa: MLF and LGAs to upgrade/construct
fish infrastructure including landing sites, markets,
warehouses, and storage facilities, with coordination, technical
and financial support from FAO and Development partners

- Set up 5-10 processing facilities to process 100k MT of

aquaculture, mainly for tilapia but also one for seaweed.
Seaweed market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.5%
until 2030. It can be used for cosmetics, animal feeds,
biofuels, pharmaceuticals, and nutraceuticals. A seaweed
factory costs 3 Mn USD and can process 30k MT annually.

C.6 — Dairy: establish 10-15 facilities to increase processing

capacity by ~1.2 million litres per day. Current dairy processing
facilities capacity is ~800k litres/day but utilisation is ~40%; maximise
utilisation in these facilities before constructing new ones. Increasing
levels of dairy processing to ~10% would reduce health risks and
substantially enhance nutritional quality. Private sector can invest in
additional milk collection centres and processing facilities. Pilot could
focus on these priority regions: Arusha, Tanga, Mbeya

C.7 — Packaging: establish one processing factory. Private sector

can invest in production of packaging materials/assembly of packages

272
 to meet specific export requirements. As an illustration, ~21% of
exports go to the EU today, projected to reach ~$1B in 2030.

Costing

Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$

Compone 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
nt Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
A1.
Establish
1500
reliable
and
strategica
lly located
warehous
es 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 25 25 25 25 25
A2.
Rehabilita
te
existing
A. warehous
Warehou es, and
ses and provide
linkage 2,750
between digital
farmers weight
and scales 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 23 23 23 23 23
processo A3.
rs Conduct
training
workshop
s for
cooperati
ves and
warehous
e systems
on
Tanzania
Mercantil
e
Exchange
(TMX) 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 2 2 2 2 2
B1.
Conduct a
targeted
needs
assessme
nt to
identify
B. Agro- financial
Industrial investors,
Processi build
ng trust and
Cluster attract
them 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

B2.
Provide
opera-
tional and
financial
support 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

273
 B3.
Construct
Agro-
Industrial
Processin
g Cluster 0 38 38 39 0 0 0 0 113 113 117 0 0 0
C1.
Provide
incentives
for
medium-
sized
processin
g
enterprise
s 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C2. Sisal:
set up 45
decorticat
ors (40
private
and 5
public) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 3 3 2
C3.
Cashew
nuts:
establish
an
industrial
park 0 0 0 19 19 20 0 0 0 0 19 19 20 0
C4.
Chicken:
C. set up 6
Specific commerci
commodi al and 6
ty governme
processin nt-led
g processin
g facilities 0 4 8 8 4 0 0 0 4 8 8 4 0 0
C5.
Fisheries:
set up 10
processin
g
facilities,
incl.
seaweed
and
upgrade
fish
handling
infrastruc
ture 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 3 3 6 6 6
C6. Dairy:
establish
10-15
facilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 6 6 6
C7.
Packagin
g:
establish
one
processin
g factory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 0 43 49 69 28 24 2 2 170 184 206 89 85 65

274
Risks & Mitigation

• The expansion of agro-processing clusters poses a risk to biodiversity through

habitat disruption, pollution, and resource depletion. To mitigate this,
comprehensive environmental impact assessments must be conducted
before the approval of any new projects. These assessments should evaluate the
potential effects on local ecosystems and propose strategies to minimise
negative impacts on biodiversity. Measures might include the preservation of
natural habitats, the implementation of sustainable resource management
practices, and the integration of biodiversity conservation into agro-industrial
planning.

• Another significant risk in the agro-processing industry is the generation of

waste. To address this, investment in waste-to-energy technologies is
recommended. These technologies can convert organic waste from agro-
processing into renewable energy, reducing environmental impact and providing a
secondary stream of revenue.

• The fast pace of technological advancement can render fixed systems obsolete.
To counter this, there is a need to invest in flexible technology solutions that can
be easily upgraded or adapted. This flexibility will allow agro-industrial clusters
to stay abreast of the latest advancements in processing technologies, thus
maintaining their operational efficiency and market relevance.

Post-2030

• Beyond 2030, the agro-industrial sector should aim to integrate advanced

technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), and
machine learning to further enhance the capabilities of processing clusters.
These technologies can optimise production processes, improve supply chain
management, reduce waste, and facilitate real-time decision-making.

• The vision for the future involves expanding the network of interlinked agro-
based processing corridors. This expansion aims to amplify regional trade by
creating a cohesive infrastructure that supports the movement of goods, services,
and information. In the long term, this network will evolve into a national system
of interlinked corridors, magnifying the benefits throughout the country by
boosting trade, improving access to markets, and fostering economic growth.

275
 Flagship 10: Increase regional and international export to $6Bn by enhancing cold
chain, airport and seaport capacity and efficiency, including processes

Context

The export value stands at $1.2 Bn in 2023 with vegetables accounting for the bigger
share (83%), fish exports for 8% and other perishables exports including fruits (7%), meat
(1%) and flowers (0.6%), impacted by lack of cold chain and export infrastructure119:
• Cold chain facilities are either not available (e.g., cold storage for horticulture and
meat) or inadequate (e.g., insufficient adherence to sanitation measures in
abattoirs), coupled with incomplete compliance with Sanitary and
phytosanitary measures (SPS), e.g., sesame seeds or oil not always adhering to
purification requirements
• Airfreight export of 11,200 MT annually for Tanzania vs 330,000 MT for Kenya and
289,000 MT for South Africa120 due to:
o Insufficient infrastructure at export hubs: i) Airports: Kilimanjaro
International Airport (JRO) and Julius Nyerere International Airport

119
Focus on JNIA, KIA, Songwe Airport, Mwanza Airport and DSM port
120
Source: Comparative study on ports logistics for perishable exports (TAHA), used for different
references in this flagship

276
 (JNIA) have inadequate handling facility with single operator limiting
competition and innovation while Jomo Kenyatta International Airport
(JKIA) in Kenya has modern and several perishable handling facilities
which offers value added services such as rapid cooling, skid rebuilding,
cargo wrapping, multi truck offloading deck. Also, some of the
Tanzanian fresh produce exporters have their sister companies in Kenya
and therefore prefer consolidating their produce in Kenya where there is
more load and ship them to their clients overseas. Moreover, Mwanza
Airport's cold room doesn't meet required standards, suggesting
problems with its design affecting exporters' needs. Songwe Airport lacks
a cold room, hindering its capability to handle perishables. KIA and JNIA
have outdated or inadequate cold rooms, signalling a need for upgrades
to meet current and future demands for perishable goods transport., ii)
seaports: Dar es Salaam port has limited plugs for reefer containers,
i.e., 160 versus 1,836 in Kenya and 1,400 in South Africa so shippers are
reluctant to place reefer containers to the port. Moreover, loading
machinery is sometimes inadequate. Dar es Salaam port only has one
entry gate catering for exports, and so no preferential treatment for
perishable exports, versus a capacity of 53,000 sqm and 12,432 cold
storage slots in South Africa for instance
o Operational inefficiencies: there are reliability issues with 1-2 h offloading
times at JNIA vs 30 min at JKIA. Inefficiency at Dar es Salaam port also
makes shipping lines unable to guarantee departure time. The average
waiting time to berth at Dar es Salaam port is between 4 and 12 days, while
in Mombasa it is hardly 2 days with some occasions’ where vessels berth
on arrival
• Inefficient export processes: inefficiency of export processes, characterized by
lengthy and opaque documentation requirements, including gathering invoices,
obtaining Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) certificates, and securing export
certifications. These requirements lead to slow clearance times, making the export
process inefficient and placing Tanzanian businesses at a disadvantage in global
markets.

Objective and KPIs

By 2030, there is an opportunity to increase regional and international export to $6Bn by

enhancing cold chain, airport and seaport capacity and efficiency, including processes.

277
Initiatives

Component Initiative

278
 A.1 — Enhance market structure, transparency and traceability by
setting/enforcing standards (e.g., transport, conservation), e.g.,
A. Cold chain COPRA for cereals, Tanzania Meat Board (TMB) for meat, Tanzania
infrastructure Dairy Board (TDB) for dairy
for red meat, A.2 — Promote construction of cold chain facilities through the
poultry, dairy, private sector, as an emerging opportunity and introduce incentives
fisheries, such as tax breaks for private-sector to invest in refrigerated
horticulture vehicles

A.3 - Introduce incentives such as tax breaks for private-sector

to invest in refrigerated storage containers and cold rooms

B.1 — Develop advanced infrastructure for export gateways:

• Seaport: Increase number of plugs for reefer containers

and upgrade loading equipment

• Airport: Redesign the cold room facility at Mwanza airport

to the required aviation industry standards to make it usable
by exporters, carry out feasibility and design for
construction and installation of cold room facility at
Songwe airport in accordance to industry standards and
demand assessment, upgrade and/or rehabilitate the existing
cold rooms at KIA and JNIA to meet the current and
medium-term demand of all perishable product. Provide
special landing, parking and other fees to cargo freighter
B. Seaport and operators to incentivize freighter operations at local airports
airport B.2 — Implement expedited services and specific handling
infrastructure, facilities for perishables:
i.e., capacity
• Implement a dedicated centre for expedited services for
and operations
fresh produce at major airports and seaports, focusing on
faster clearance and quality checks for exports. Enable
speedier delivery of perishable shipments for shippers
and reefer vessels through evidencing on the preference of
handling perishables and their specific documentation
process. Manage the port entrance through the Port Authority
by establishing both a system that will control the inlet and
outlet of vehicles through priority to perishable
shipments against ordinary cargo.
• Offer perishable handling facilities offering value added
services such as rapid cooling, skid rebuilding, cargo
wrapping, multi truck offloading deck.
B.3 — Construct fishing harbour at Kilwa Masoko in Lindi region,
with a capacity to handle ~60k tonnes of fish per year. Harbour will
be 314 meters long with ability to serve three 107 meters long
vessels or four 65 meters long vessels at a time.

279
 B.4 — Continue and enhance implementation of the Electronic
Single Window System (TeSWS) to allow trade stakeholders to
interface electronically. Single window solutions allow trade
stakeholders to interface electronically, submitting and distributing
documents including customs declarations, import/export permit
applications, trading invoices and certificates of origin to accelerate
and secure the supply chain.

C.1 — Provide capacity building for law enforcers (e.g., TRA,

C. Export
Police, Immigration) and actual players (e.g., transporters, farmers/
processes
producers, logistics companies) on perishable products value
efficiencies to
chain and handling
improve
customs C.2 — Build a team to i) conduct export market researches and
speed/experien ensure coordination with extension services and trade agreements,
ce/reliability ii) build and implement actionable guidelines for adhering to
Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) agreements

Costing

Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$

Compon 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
ent Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
A.1 —
Enhance
market
transparen
cy and
traceability
A. Cold through
chain standards 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
infrastru A.2 -
cture Introduce
tax breaks
for private-
sector
to invest in
refrigerate
d vehicles 0 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 9 10 10 9 7 0

280
 A.3 -
Introduce
tax breaks
for private-
sector
to invest in
refrigera-
ted storage
containers 0 7 8 8 7 5 0 0 30 35 35 30 25 0
B.1 -
Infrastruct
ure of
seaports
and
B.
airports 0 15 15 15 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Seaport
B.2 - For
and
perishable
airport
s
infrastru
implement
cture,
a dedicated
i.e.,
centre and
capacity
offer
and
services 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
operatio
B.3 -
ns
Construct
fishing
harbour at
Kilwa
Masoko 33 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C.1 -
Continue
the
implement
ation of the
Electronic
Single
Window
C. System
Export (TeSWS) 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
process C.2 -
es Provide
efficienc capacity
ies to building for
improve law
custom enforcers
s on
speed/e perishable
xperien products
ce/reliab handling 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ility C.3 - Do
export
market
research
and build
and
implement
SPS
guidelines 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

281
 TOTAL 33 57 29 29 27 25 3 0 38 45 45 38 32 0

Risks & Mitigation

• The challenge of operating within a dual economy - one that features both
modern, globalised markets and traditional, local markets - can lead to
disparities in economic benefits. To ensure that consumers gain from global
market integration, policies must be structured to facilitate equitable access to
the benefits of expanded export capacity. This includes implementing
measures that stabilise prices and improve product quality and variety.
Additionally, it is essential to develop infrastructure and services that support
local producers, enabling them to meet export standards and access
international markets, thus ensuring that the economic gains from trade are
passed on to consumers through competitive pricing and improved access to
goods.

• Market dynamics are continually evolving, often driven by changes in

international standards and consumer demands. To keep pace, policies
governing export processes must be flexible and adaptive. This entails
establishing regulatory frameworks that can quickly adjust to new market
requirements and international trade agreements. It's crucial to foster an
environment where businesses can swiftly adapt to changing standards for
product quality, safety, and sustainability. By doing so, local exporters can remain
competitive on the international stage, ensuring that products meet the ever-
changing demands of global markets and maintaining the reliability of export
supply chains.

Post-2030

• Post-2030, the strategic development of export capabilities will significantly

depend on the incorporation of advanced technologies. Artificial Intelligence (AI)
will revolutionise logistics, optimising supply chains for efficiency and speed. AI-
driven logistics systems can forecast demands, automate cold chain operations,
and provide adaptive routing for transportation, thereby reducing delivery times and
costs. Blockchain technology is set to play a pivotal role in enhancing traceability
and transparency within the supply chain. By providing an immutable ledger for
recording transactions, blockchain will ensure the authenticity and safety of
products, build trust with consumers, and comply with stringent international
standards. Additionally, the use of energy-efficient refrigerated storage solutions
will not only reduce the carbon footprint of export operations but also lead to
significant cost savings in the long term. These advanced, energy-saving storage
technologies will help in preserving the quality of perishable goods, further
extending their market reach.

282
Flagship 11: Digitalize farmer/stakeholder registration and agriculture ecosystem
to improve farmer support

Context

The Ministries of Agriculture and Livestock and Fisheries in Tanzania encounter significant
challenges related to accessing comprehensive, quality, and timely data essential for
informed decision-making and targeted farmer support. These challenges stem from
fragmented and largely inaccessible agricultural data, contributing to farmers' lack of basic
market intelligence, inadequate agricultural extension services, and limited access to
crucial information such as weather forecasting. Additionally, a lack of transparency and
accountability among various stakeholders in the agriculture sector hinders fair resource
distribution and overall growth.

Challenges

Several challenges persist within the agriculture sector despite ongoing efforts to address
them. These include fragmented and inaccessible agricultural data, hindering the
development of targeted interventions and policies. Farmers face limited access to
essential agricultural information and struggle to access markets and obtain fair prices due

283
to transparency issues. Insufficient agricultural extension services further compound these
challenges, as do difficulties in monitoring and predicting crop disease outbreaks for timely
intervention. Moreover, the absence of data-driven policymaking, inaccurate land
ownership information, data interoperability issues, inefficient data management, and
limited use of agricultural inputs contribute to the sector's inefficiencies.

Objectives and KPIs

The primary objective of this flagship initiative is to digitalize the agriculture ecosystem,
facilitating data-driven decision-making and targeted policy interventions for effective
farmer support. Through enhanced extension services, dissemination of market
intelligence, and access to essential information, smallholders will be empowered to plan
and execute successful cultivation seasons.

The flagship aims to overcome the above-mentioned challenges by establishing a

comprehensive digitalization framework. This framework will prioritise farmer and
stakeholder registration with unique digital identification, serving as the foundation upon
which interconnected systems can be built. By leveraging digital technologies and fostering
collaboration among stakeholders, the initiative seeks to optimize agricultural data
utilization, enhance transparency and accountability, and ultimately drive sustainable
growth within the agriculture sector. The specific KPIs that have to be met to achieve these
goals are indicated below:

284
Initiatives

Component Initiative

A. Develop A.1 – Develop a comprehensive farmer & stakeholder registry as the

the cornerstone of all digitalization initiatives, aimed at enhancing production,
foundational productivity, and income for smallholder farmers.
infrastructur
e for A.2 – Strengthen digital data interoperability, flow, use in agriculture by
digitalization establishing a comprehensive data strategy, incl. digital architecture,
development, integration of current digital systems (such as kilimo dashboard,
ATMIS, ARDS, etc.) and a controlled testing environment to enhance data
integration, quality, and innovation

B. Build B.1 - Enhance the Ministry of Agriculture's coordinating office with the
institutional necessary tools and skilled personnel to facilitate strategy implementation.
capacity and
governance B.2 – Create operational tools, including TORs, procedures, and guidelines, to
for ensure a well-structured and organized approach to executing the strategy.
digitalization

B.3 – Put in place the proposed governance framework to oversee and

support the implementation of the strategy, ensuring clear roles,
responsibilities, and decision-making processes.

285
C. Roll out C.1 – Build on and improve the current fertilizer subsidy platform to include
digital use provision of other inputs such as seeds, pesticides, mechanization, irrigation,
cases etc.

C.2 – Integration of M-kilimo, farmer call centre, farmer/stakeholder registry

and other existing digital extension services to provide comprehensive
extension support to farmers

C. 3 – Select one or two use cases based on a specific criteria (e.g. value chain,
region) to build, pilot the application of digitalization to demonstrate impact,
further refine the platform and scale up across other regions and commodities

D. Scale up D.1 – Enhance rural digital access through infrastructure procurement, cost-
and effective device partnerships with MNOs, and ICT facility establishment in
expansion agricultural centres.

D.2 - Cultivate digital innovation in agriculture by creating an innovation fund,

establishing a collaborative platform, and offering capacity-building for youth-
focused initiatives

Costing

Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$

Compon 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
ent Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
A.1 —
Develop/Im
prove
A. comprehen
Develop sive farmer
the and
foundati stakeholde
onal r registry: 8 17 29 13 4 4 - - - - - - - -
infrastru A.2 -
cture for Strengthen
digitaliz digital data
ation interoperab
ility, flow
and use in
agriculture 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -
B. Build B.1 -
instituti Strengthen
onal Coordinati
capacity on and
and Resources 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - -
governa B.2 -
nce for Develop
digitaliz Effective
ation Operationa 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - -

286
 l
Framework

B.3 -
Establish
Effective
Governanc
e Structure 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - -
C.1 -
Develop
comprehen
sive
platform
for input
provision 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - -
C.2 -
Improveme
nt and
C. Roll integration
out use of digital
cases extension
services 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - - -
C.3 - Pilot
use cases
to
demonstrat
e impact
and
implement
SPS
guidelines 1 2 3 3 2 1 - - - - - - - -
D.1 -
Improve
digital
connectivit
y to
support
agriculture - 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - -
D.2 -
Strengthen
digital
agriculture
innovation
ecosystem - 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - -
- TOTAL 10 20 34 16 6 5 0 - - - - - - -

Risks and mitigations

For the implementation of the above flagship, several risks need to be considered and
mitigated. Some of these include the following:

Data privacy and security: The collection and storage of personal and farm-related data
pose significant privacy and security risks. There's a need to ensure robust data protection
measures to prevent unauthorized access, data breaches, and misuse of farmer data.

287
Digital divide: The digital divide between urban and rural areas, and among different socio-
economic groups, can lead to unequal access to the digital ecosystem. Ensuring equitable
access to technology and digital literacy is crucial to avoid exacerbating existing
inequalities.

Infrastructure limitations: Inadequate technological infrastructure, including internet

connectivity and electricity supply in rural areas, can hinder the effective implementation
and accessibility of a digital ecosystem.

Financial and resource constraints: Developing and maintaining a comprehensive digital

system requires substantial financial and human resources. The government needs to
ensure sustainable funding and skilled manpower for the project’s longevity.

Farmer acceptance and behavioural change: Resistance to change and scepticism

towards new technologies among some farmers can pose a challenge. Effective
communication, education, and demonstration of the system's benefits are essential for
widespread adoption.

Accuracy and reliability of data: Ensuring the accuracy and timeliness of data entered into
the system is critical. Inaccurate data can lead to poor decision-making and resource
allocation. Proper systems for data verification need to be created and put in place.

Scalability and flexibility: Systems need to be scalable to accommodate the growing

number of users and flexible enough to adapt to changing technologies and farming
practices.

Integration with existing systems: Integrating the new digital ecosystem with existing
agricultural and governmental systems without causing disruptions is a challenge.
Seamless integration is crucial for the effective functioning of the ecosystem. These
considerations need to be made prior and tested.

Policy and regulatory challenges: Establishing a legal and regulatory framework that
supports the digital ecosystem, including addressing issues related to land ownership, data
sharing, and cross-sector collaboration, is necessary.

Beyond 2030

• Grow and integrate the private sector led digital platforms that can provide
specialized farmer support. This is critical to ensure all stakeholders across the
value chain capture the benefits of a digitalized system.

• Create a digital ecosystem that is fuelled by innovation from new startups led by
youth and women. By having a conducive environment new innovations will spur
growth in the sector and create a space for the digital agriculture tech to develop in
the countries and subsequently beyond Tanzania.

288
Flagship 12: Boost coverage and quality of extension services via the
establishment of an operational supports fund, hiring of new agents, scaling of
digital extension, and required refresher programmes

Context

Extension officers are critical change agents to improve smallholder farmer

productivity: on average, smallholders receiving in-person or digital extension support
see ~25% productivity improvements. Despite their crucial role, extension services
reached less than 10% of all agriculture households in 2019/2020. In response to low
coverage rates, MoA launched the M-Kilimo digital extension platform, however, rates
of active users are <1%.

In Tanzania, government-provided extension services dominate, with a small presence

of specialised private agents, typically affiliated with commercial entities rather than
operating independently. Public extension is severely underfunded and underequipped,
driving low coverage rates and sometimes lower quality visits. Funding is dominated by
government and donor financing, characterised by severe year-to-year
inconsistencies that impede multi-year planning. Limited funding and reported misuse of
funds also leads agents having insufficient supports for fieldwork, such as motorbikes,
tablets, and extension kits (~40% of agents don’t have motorbikes and <50% have tablets).
Moreover, inadequate ongoing training opportunities hinder agents' ability to enhance
problem-solving skills and update their knowledge. Female agents are reported to be
especially at a disadvantage when it comes to opportunities for ongoing training.

In addition to challenges of funding, equipment, and capacity building needs, extension

services also require improved incentives and oversight mechanisms, both at the
individual level and LGA levels. At the individual level, agents have limited incentives to
provide high-quality services, or quality control mechanisms to ensure that visits take place
and meet a baseline quality. At the LGA level, reports of reallocation of funds originally
earmarked for extension to other areas (e.g., campaigning) is common. An oversight

289
mechanism to better track and manage use of funds could mitigate this issue and
enhance overall effectiveness of extension services.

Objective and KPIs

By 2030, coverage rates will more than double, as extension agents are provided with
consistent operational supports to execute their daily work. Additionally, extension service
quality will increase, as agents will have more opportunities for skill enhancement, and
incentives/oversight mechanisms will be put in place to monitor service quality.

Initiatives

290
Component Initiative

A.1 - Establish best-in-class refresher training programme, via

creation of 40+ online video refreshers and bi-annual in-person
refresher courses. Begin by designing new in-person curriculum in
collaboration with MoA/MLF training institutions, and deliver first in-
person training in 2025 to 50% of all agents (4 days/training).
Coordinate participants based on region to minimise transport
costs and logistics; in the subsequent year the remaining 50% of
agents in other regions should receive training. Training can
include role plays of field visits with smallholders to enhance
service delivery/problem solving skills, breakout groups split by
area of content expertise, and field visits.

In 2026 (once tablet distribution has been scaled in Activity B.2),

launch supplementary video courses, both for general skill building
and content-specific knowledge, for flexible learning. Focus on
commodity-specific knowledge that may have less training material
(e.g., aquaculture productivity and how to strengthen Aquaculture
Development Centres), and more general knowledge that also may
A. Scale
lack training material (e.g., how to deliver services specific to
quality and
women smallholders’ needs). Consider incorporating online
quantity of
exchange programmes (e.g., Training of Trainers) into ongoing
extension
digital refresher training
services
A.2 — Improve user experience and interoperability of M-
Kilimo platform to improve usability and increase extension
coverage for >3 million farmers. Work alongside collaborators in
Digitalisation flagship to ensure smooth integration with farmer
registration database and other digital platforms. To enhance
usability, conduct field visits to understand smallholder user
experiences, and apply feedback of experiences to update
platform functionality. Finally, promote awareness and provide
trainings on how to use the platform in collaboration with LGAs,
depending on uptake rates and pace of rollout

A.3 - Hire 4.4K additional extension officers, in regions where

shortage is most severe and production of prioritised commodities
is high. Conduct thorough mapping of coverage rates in 2027 to
inform hiring decisions (could leverage new Agri-census report),
and prioritise hiring in select commodities with high growth
potential. Consider gender composition of overall extension system
when hiring, to ensure adequate representation of female
extension agents

B.1 - Establish operational supports task force, to monitor

B. Establish
ongoing needs of agents (e.g., motorbikes, tablets) and to support
operational
institutionalisation of an extension supports fund. Task force will
supports fund
explore different options to create a dedicated pool of funding for
to equip
operational supports, including (but not limited to): creation of a
291
agents for new line item from Central Government for operational supports;
success or allocation of a portion of LGA- collected crop/livestock levies to
a new pooled fund. In researching different options, task force
should consider long-term sustainability of the fund, political will,
time for fund roll-out, and projected funding amount

B.2 - Procure and disburse motorbikes, tablets, vet kits, soil

testing kits, and other required kits to meet current shortage, to
replace old items, and to support annual new hires (in the interim
period before operational supports fund is set-up in Activity B.1.).

Current estimated motorbike shortage is ~4.5K motorbikes (to

have 1 bike/officer). Procure and disburse 50% of motorbikes
required in 2024, and 50% of motorbikes in 2025. Additionally,
replace an estimated 2.5K non-functional motorbikes in 2024, and
plan for annual replacements of a subset of motorbikes each year
thereafter, as usability of each motorbike is projected to be ~4
years.

Current estimated tablet shortage is ~6.4K (after MoA makes

planned disbursement of 4.3K tablets in 2024). Procure and
disburse 1/3 of tablets required in 2025, 2026, and 2027.
Thereafter, plan for replacement of tablets every 4 years.

Current estimated vet kit and soil testing kit shortage is 3.8K kits
and 1.9K kits respectively. Disburse 50% of all required kits in
2024 and 50% in 2025. Plan for ongoing replacement of kits every
3 years thereafter.

B.3 - Establish and implement system for facilitation

payments for agents to execute field duties, beginning in 2025.
Payments should only be disbursed when agents have left their
homes/office for field work (triggered through GPS system) and
can be used for daily fuel and lunch allowance. As M-Kilimo
platform is enhanced with new features over time, explore
opportunities to optimise time/cost of disbursing payments to
extension agents (e.g., connect MoA’s GPS system to extension
agent profiles on new mobile application, that is connected to their
M-PESA account)

B.4 - Research and establish system for performance-based

incentives and accompanying monitoring system to improve
extension visit quality. Hire 5-7 task force members to explore
options for different types of financial incentives in 2025 and 2026
(including monetary amount, how the amount will be determined,
how many agents should receive incentives for them to be
effective vs. ineffective, etc.). Then, roll out first pilot of new
incentives system in 2027, integrating a feature to monitor visit
quality through M-Kilimo platform, similar to new feature
integration in Activity B.3. (New feature could include a function for

292
 smallholders to rate the quality of their visits on a digital platform,
which is then reviewed by MoA/MLF to determine incentives
payments.)

Costing

Gov cost, M$ Private sector cost, M$

Componen 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
t Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

A.1- Establish
best-in-class
A. Scale 0.1 2 2 3 3 3 3
refresher
quality trainings
and
quantity A.2.- Enhance
of M-Kilimo
extension platform 1 3 3 3 0.5 0.5 0.5
services

A.3.- Hire
additional
40 40 40 40 40 47 54
extension
agents

B.1.- Task
force for
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
operational
supports
B.
B.2.-
Establish
Disbursement
operation 9 9 4 4 4 9 9
of operational
al
supports
supports
fund to B.3.-
equip Facilitation 5 11 16 21 25 25
agents for payments
success
B.4-
Performance-
1 1 1 1
based
incentives

TOTAL 50 58 58 64 69 85 93

Risks & mitigation

• Uptake of enhanced M-Kilimo platform may be low and/or slower than

expected if smallholders have difficulty using platform, see more value in physical
extension services, and/or are not satisfied with digital extension services

293
 o Pilot specific digital applications before overlaying new features, and
consistently gather feedback from smallholders on what/isn’t working to
update/enhance user experience

• Despite being equipped required operational supports to conduct field visits,

some extension agents may still have limited incentives to improve service
quality

o In addition to financial incentives explored in Activity B.4, consider non-

financial incentives to boost motivation and quality assurance
mechanisms to enforce baseline standards through new monitoring
system. Additionally, conduct light screening of applicants’ motivation
during hiring of new agents

Post-2030

• Assess the efficacy of the selected mechanism for operational supports

fund (i.e., how funds are collected and where they sit), to determine if funds
should be collected from alternative revenue sources and/or sit in different gov’t
dept.

• Scale up digital extension services to boost extension coverage and to overlay

new features to improve service quality (e.g., feature for smallholders to rate the
quality of their visits, and link this to disbursement of performance-based
payments for agents)

• Expand pluralistic ecosystem of gov’t and private extension services, to

increase current share of private extension and improve collaboration across both
sectors (e.g., for peer trainings, joint service-provision)

• Consider short-term regional/ international exchange programmes as an

incentive for top-performing extension agents, to motivate agents to provide high-
quality services/ improve service delivery through learning of new extension
approaches/ ag. technologies

294
 Flagship 13: Provide access to financing to 1.7 Mn beneficiaries in groups and 30k
SMEs through increased distribution networks, adapted products and risk-sharing
mechanisms

Context

Agriculture contributes ~30% to Tanzania’s GDP but attracts only 9% of financing. In

rural areas, in 2023, 14.5% of Tanzanians have or use bank services, 53.8% don’t have
or use bank services but have or use other formal services (i.e., insurance, SACCOs,
MFIs, Remittance companies, Mobile Money, CMGs), 8% don’t have or use formal
services but use informal services (i.e., shops/supply chain credit, money lenders) and
23.7% are financially excluded (i.e., friends/family, save at home).121 This disparity is
partly due to financial exclusion affecting 60% of stakeholders and 80% of SHF, due to:

• High level of risk and insufficient returns due to lack of collateral, lack of
scale and limited financial literacy and business planning skills among
farmers and other value chain actors
• Limited access to relevant data (e.g., inadequate financial records) for mobile
network operators (MNOs), banks and insurers to make informed lending
decisions due to a lack of integration with existing high-reach technologies for
record keeping
• Inadequate products (loans and insurances) failing to cater to agriculture's
unique requirements (e.g., in season/short-term; to accommodate multiple crops
& livestock on the same parcel)
• Lack of distribution channels, i.e., in rural areas, ~1/5 of Tanzanians do not live
within 5km radius of a financial access point.

121
Source: FinScope Tanzania 2023 ; assuming that largest population in rural areas are farmers

295
 Informal credit services like Savings and Credit Cooperative Societies (SACCOs) and
digital solutions via mobile applications to provide access to financial services (e.g.,
mobile payment, credit, insurance) in rural areas (e.g., M-Kulima by Vodacom: ~3 millions
farmers focusing on ~13 commodities) are prevalent, yet interest rates remain high (9-
12%). Some risk sharing mechanisms including guarantee funds for farmers and
small businesses have shown success in mitigating risks for commercial banks and could
be expanded:
• Guarantee up to 80% with PASS - provide loan guarantees up to 60% and
insurance to stimulate lending by financial institutions (worked with 15 financial
institutions) offer credit guarantee cover with the aim of topping up clients’
collateral to help them become eligible for loans. PASS is the only credit
guarantee schemes in Tanzania offering banks a guarantee coverage ratio of 50
to 75%, with up to 80% for projects owned by women or young people. A total of
1.15 million agricultural entrepreneurs have benefited from PASS-guaranteed
loans, which amounted to some 845 billion Tanzanian shillings (TZS) between
2000 and 2019, nearly two thirds of that in the last four years. Over 2.5 million
jobs have been created as a result.
• Guarantee up to 50% with TADB through the Smallholders Credit Guarantee
Scheme (SCGS)122 with interest rates still high (i.e., 9-12%) - provide up to
50% cash cover to partner banks to guarantee Agriculture loans (~16Mn USD
disbursed for ~6,000+ beneficiaries)

Objective and KPIs

Increase access to finance for 1.7 Mn SHF and 30k SMEs focusing on high demand
commodities through increased distribution networks, adapted products and risk-sharing
mechanisms

122
Smallholder Credit Guarantee Scheme USD 25 Mn fund aimed at de-risking and providing liquidity
to banks and financial institutions to catalyze financing for smallholder farmers and agri-SMEs
providing commercial banks with a 50% credit risk guarantee

296
Initiatives

Component Initiative

A.1 - Establish a working group incl. financial banks, insurers and

regulators (i.e., BoT and TIRA) to work on Regulations,
Guidelines and Circulars that would enable financial institutions to
design appropriate banking and insurance products specific to
A. Improve agriculture (e.g., interest rates, temporality, insurance conditions)
financing A.2 - Establish one focal point to coordinate all the different risk
enabling sharing and de-risking instrument for agricultural lending in
environment Tanzania and make sure they deliver the most impact

A.3 - Interconnect digital ecosystem sharing with mobile

network operators (MNOs) and banks in order to enable and
facilitate data access (incl. identification and profiling) on farmers to
facilitate access to financing
B. Provide B.1 - Support SHF in the improvement of their credit score: i) Set
access to up a team to build enforcement mechanisms, i.e., ensure value
financing to 1.7 chains are cashless to improve credit score of SHF (in
Mn collaboration with Boards), ii) scale AgriGRADE approach
beneficiaries in B.2 – Capacitate community banks and AMCOs to establish and
groups (farms, manage SACCOS by providing comprehensive training, regulatory
ponds and guidance, and technical assistance and support SACCOS to
cages, finance agriculture
livestock B.3 - Increase TADB wholesale by collaborating with 8 financial
areas), with an institutions to lend to 35k Smallholder Farmers (SHF) through
equitable loans with interest rates ranging from 5% to 7%
approach to
B.4 - Provide access to financing to 1.7 Mn beneficiaries by
loan 1
distribution expanding Smallholders Credit Guarantee Scheme (SCGS)
providing Partner Financial Institutions (PFI) with a 50% credit risk
2
guarantee for SHFs (producing horticulture, cotton, cashew,
coffee, paddy, sunflower, aquaculture, dairy, poultry)

C.1 - Provide loans to 12,000 SMEs under BBT and 3,000 larger
C. Provide
SMES in incubators by expanding existing incentive
access to
mechanisms (e.g., African Guarantee Fund (AGF)) providing
financing to
acceptable collateral by sharing the risks with banks (average loan of
30k SMEs, with
USD ~6k)
an equitable
approach to C.2 - Provide loans to 15,000 SMEs by increasing uptake for
loan SMEs products (e.g., Aceli Africa) including origination subsidies for
distribution smaller agricultural loans for SMEs as well as a first loss guarantee
facility

Costing

297
 Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$
Compone Initiative 24/ 25 26 27 28 29 30 24 25/2 26/2 27/2 28/2 29 30/
nt 25 /2 /2 /2 /2 /3 /3 /2 6 7 8 9 /3 31
6 7 8 9 0 1 5 0
A. A1. Work 0,0 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Improve on 5 5 0 0 0 0
financing Regulation
enabling s,
environm Guidelines
ent and
Circulars
for
financial
institution
A2. 0,0 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coordinate 5 5 0 0 0 0
all the
different
risk
sharing
and de-
risking
instrument
A3. Enable 0,0 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
and 5 5 5 5 5 0
facilitate
data
access on
farmers for
banks/
insurers
B. B1. 0,0 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Provide Support 5 5 0 0 0 0
access to SHF in the
financing improveme
to 1.7 Mn nt of their
beneficiar credit
ies in score
groups

B2. 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capacitate
community
banks and
AMCOs to
establish
and
manage
SACCOS
B3. 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase
TADB
wholesale
to lend to
35k SHF
C1. 2 5 5 5 5 9 9 0 93 185 185 185 18 185
Provide 5
access to
financing
to 1.7 Mn
beneficiari

298
 es by
expanding
SCGS

C. C2. 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 8 16 16 16 16 16
Provide Provide
access to loans to
financing 12,000
to 30k SMEs
SMEs under BBT
and 3,000
larger
SMES in
incubators
C3. 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 8 16 16 16 16 16
Provide
loans to
15,000
SMEs by
increasing
uptake for
SMEs
products
TOTAL 8 9 11 10 10 15 14 0 109 218 218 218 21 218
8

Risks & Mitigation

In providing access to financing, there's an inherent risk of loan defaults, which can be
detrimental to the stability of financial institutions. To mitigate this risk, the implementation
of stringent credit assessments is essential. Such assessments would thoroughly
evaluate the creditworthiness of potential borrowers, considering their financial history,
repayment capacity, and the viability of their business plans.

In tandem with these assessments, offering financial literacy programmes is crucial.

These programmes would educate potential borrowers on managing finances,
understanding the responsibilities that come with taking out loans, and planning for
sustainable business growth. By enhancing financial knowledge, borrowers are more
likely to manage their debts effectively, make informed financial decisions, and thus
reduce the likelihood of default.

Moreover, financial literacy programmes can extend to cover risk management, savings
strategies, and insights into market dynamics. This holistic approach to borrower
education will not only aid in reducing default rates but also contribute to the development
of a more resilient and financially savvy group of entrepreneurs and SMEs. These
measures, combined, will enhance the overall health of the credit ecosystem and
contribute to the sustainable growth of the economy.

Post-2030

299
• Post-2025, the focus is anticipated to shift towards enhancing the sustainability
and growth potential of agricultural companies through equity participation. This
approach involves financial institutions and investors taking ownership stakes in
agricultural enterprises, aligning the financial incentives with the long-term
success of the business. Equity participation can provide companies with the
capital infusion necessary to innovate, expand, and improve their
competitiveness, without the immediate burden of debt repayment. This strategy
also encourages more responsible corporate governance and ensures that
investors and stakeholders are committed to the ethical and sustainable growth of
the agricultural sector.

• The evolution of financing beyond 2030 will likely see a significant push towards
embedding financial services within digital and mobile platforms. This digital
expansion is crucial for broadening the reach of financing, making it accessible to
remote and underserved populations. Mobile platforms, with their widespread
usage, offer an unparalleled opportunity to provide seamless access to financial
products, real-time transaction capabilities, and tailored financial advice. The
integration of financial services with digital technology can also facilitate better
data collection and risk assessment, leading to more personalised and efficient
financial solutions.

• The future of agricultural financing is expected to increasingly favour green

financing initiatives. These initiatives are designed to support practices that are
not only eco-friendly but also adaptive to the changing climate. Loans and
financial products will be structured to incentivise sustainable agricultural
practices, such as the use of renewable energy sources, water-efficient irrigation
systems, and climate-resilient crops. By shifting towards green financing, financial
institutions will play a pivotal role in promoting sustainable development and can
potentially tap into new markets by appealing to environmentally conscious
investors and consumers. This shift is also in line with global trends towards
sustainability and could offer agricultural businesses a competitive advantage on
the global stage.

300
Flagship 14: Sustainably unlock 1.5Mha for commercial agriculture and 1.2Mha
land ownership for smallholders including women and young people through an
agricultural land database.

Context

Existing reports estimate that Tanzania currently has 44 million hectares of arable land
which have been reported in documentation preceding the early 2000s until now. For
area under cultivation, the estimates vary between 10.8 million hectares to 15 million
hectares depending on the source.

Overall, there is limited visibility on the amount of agricultural land available, or in use
across the country. This has also led to instances of various parcels of productive,
commercial agricultural land not being used due to various factors, including
receiverships. While other productive agricultural parcels have been repurposed because
there is no structure protecting agricultural land. A recurring issue has also been clashes
between farmers; herders due to encroachment on land/routes.

According to the national agriculture census, 9% of smallholder land has legal

documentation which is less for women than it is for men. Accessing legal documentation
is further limited by the fact that 22% of villages in Tanzania have land use plans. Land
use plans are required to allocate lands for different uses including agriculture and are
also required before rights of occupancy can be issued. Furthermore, accessing land for
commercial agricultural activities can be daunting. it also takes longer to acquire land in
Tanzania, than the sub-Saharan Africa average and neighbouring country, Kenya.

Objectives and KPIs

This flagship aims to provide the government with visibility on availability and utilisation of
agricultural land in the country, facilitate land access for smallholders with a focus on
women and young people, and secure land access for commercial agricultural activities.

This flagship would facilitate/support the further development of land use plans for more
villages and facilitate smallholders in securing Customary Certificate Right of Occupancy
(CCROs). These CCROs would provide farmers with security and unlock access to
formal services including financing. It would also secure land parcels for commercial

301
farming to facilitate investments in agriculture. This would be enabled through the
creation of a landbank which investors can lease or purchase for agribusiness purposes.
This landbank is supported by relevant enablers and policies, including standardised
secure land tenure arrangements to incentivise long-term investments in agriculture, the
land and the communities.

The creation of a Land Information Management System (LIMS) which can provide real-
time access to information including land available for agriculture, current utilisation,
ownership status, etc., would aid the administration of the landbank, wider-agricultural
land in the country, planning and investments. Overall, it would also serve as the platform
which would facilitate land access to smallholders and commercial farmers.

The following are the key performance indicators (KPIs) and their yearly breakdowns until
2030/31 to track the progress and impact of this flagship:

302
Initiatives

Component Initiative
A.1- Establish legal framework, policy, baseline data
requirements and IT backend to support execution of the
development of the Ag. LIMS (Land information
Management System). The use cases in components B and
C would determine the approach though which the LIMS
platform would be developed, and the IT back-end and
frontend needs. Data requirements are to include (but not
limited to) crops grown, ownership details, history, status, etc.
This is to be developed in collaboration with stakeholders
including farmers, sectorial ministries, departments and
agencies.
A.2- Digitise existing land use plans, with a focus on land
parcels identified for agriculture and incorporate relevant
details including ownership status, details, history, etc.
Conduct detailed mapping of allocated but unused
agricultural land e.g., abandoned wheat and sisal estates or
land areas under receivership. Execute national agricultural
land mapping using a combination of geospatial data and
ground truthing. Data collected during this mapping exercise
would serve as a base until national land use plans have
been developed. All mapping in this initiative is to be
uploaded and documented in the LIMS.
A.3- Unlock agricultural land by setting-up multisectoral
teams comprising the Vice-Presidents Office, Environment,
A. Create a database Ministries of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Lands,
of agricultural land in Local Governments, etc. and deploying resources (e.g.,
Tanzania manpower, funding, etc.) to increase the pace of execution of
303
 land-use plans in the country. This should be done by
prioritising areas identified in A2 which have a high
concentration of agricultural lands and areas which are most
prone to agricultural land disputes. Agricultural land in the
new land use plans created are to be uploaded into the LIMS.
B.1- Create a multisectoral technical team comprising the
Ministries of Agriculture, Livestock & Fisheries, Lands, Local
Government, etc. to facilitate efforts to secure CCROs for
smallholder farmers. The focus would be primarily for
women and young people. This is to be done on the back of
land use plans being completed, identifying vulnerable
communities and supporting groups of smallholders with
surveying and bureaucratic processes to have the CCROs
delivered to them. By using the extension system and other
media outlets share knowledge with the wider community of
smallholder farmers on the benefits, dispelling rumours, and
process of securing CCROs for their lands. This would also
involve creating a desk at the outposts of the local
government offices which farmers can visit to enquire about
the benefits and process of obtaining CCROs
B.2- Develop and implement policies to bolster the security
B. Create a path for of agricultural land from encroachment, protection of
security and allocated parcels for agriculture in land use plans. Also create
commercialisation for a framework to enable data generated and uploaded in the
smallholder farmers LIMS to be used for resolution of dispute regarding
though land access ownership, contracting, etc.

C.1- Design land access policy framework. For the

Ministries of Agriculture, Livestock & Fisheries it would
facilitate the sub-leasing of land to investors and streamline
the issuance to permits for aquafarming. For the Local
Government Authorities, which would govern leasing/sale of
land to investors. This is to include standardised
guidelines/contracts which can facilitate rapid conclusion of
land leasing/sale agreements with investors.
C.2- Pilot and scale land banking by acquiring land
(leveraging TIC where appropriate), digitising its details on
the LIMS, and making it accessible to investors online and via
a desk at the ministries of Livestock and Fisheries and
C. Make agricultural Agriculture. This way investors can fully understand land
land accessible for opportunities for commercial activities. It can also support
agriculture focused other relevant government agencies can be clear on areas to
investment and prioritise for development to attract the necessary
commercial activities investments in the country.

304
Costing

Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$

Compone 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/ 24/ 25/ 26/ 27/ 28/ 29/ 30/
nt Initiative 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
A.1 - Develop
legal
framework
and policy,
requirement
s and IT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
back end 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
A.2 - Digitize
existing land
use plans,
and map
cultivated
land 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
A. Create a nationally 3 6 6 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
database A.3 - Increase
of the pace of
agricultur execution of
al land in land-use 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
Tanzania plans 0 0 6 12 17 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

B.1 -
B. Create a Facilitate
path for efforts to
security secure 0. 0.
and CCROs 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 12 12 36 36 48 48 48
commerci B.2 - Develop
alization and
for implement
smallhold policies to
er farmers bolster the
though security of
land agricultural 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
access land . 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

C. Make C.1 - Design

agricultural land access
land policy
accessible framework.
for for subleasing
agriculture land and
focused issuance to
investment permits for 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
and aquafarming 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
commerci C.2 - Pilot
al and scale 0. 0. 0.
activities land banking 28 53 73 74 74 67 66 0 2 5 1 2 4 8
10
TOTAL 33 61 88 93 1 92 68 12 12 36 37 50 52 56

305
Risks & Mitigation

There is a risk that smallholder farmers may be displaced as commercial farming

activities expand. This could lead to disputes and of livelihoods especially in vulnerable
communities.

• Protect the rights of smallholder farmers and ensure their inclusion in decision-
making processes in the development of land use plans and allocation of land for
commercial purposes.

This may lead to the repurposing of land for higher value crops, changing traditional land
use patterns.

• Inclusion of local communities and stakeholders to ensure their voices are heard
in the decision-making process. Land allocation for different uses should be
based on the equitable distribution of land.

Poor data quality may undermine the credibility and usefulness of the system, leading to
inaccurate land information.

• Implementing robust data collection and validation procedures, with significant

investment in ground truthing, stakeholder feedback capacity development and
improving mechanisms.

Post-2030

• Ensuring smallholders, especially women and young people have land rights and
building on land use data to ensure its up-to-date and widely available for decision
making.

• Integration of the Ag. LIMS to financial services and insurance. This can enable
simplified access to credit especially for smallholders. It can be used to assess a
farmer’s credit worthiness though e.g., land ownership status, weather patterns,
crop performance, etc. and enable farmers access financing quickly.

• Weather forecasting using remote sensing technologies and GIS to monitor crop
performance, land cover changes, water availability, etc. which can enable more
informed decision making.

306
Flagship 15: Enhance food security through strengthened warning systems,
strategic food and feed reserves and emergency response, as well as fish
Monitoring, Control, and Surveillance (MCS)

Context

Food systems are increasingly impacted by shocks such as extreme weather and
disease outbreaks, yet there's a lack of preparedness to address these risks and
protect vulnerable households. The Early Warning Systems is not digitalised, suffering
from poor data quality, hindering both internal (e.g., crop yields, forecasts, shocks) and
external (trade partners' data) analyses. Additionally, there's an absence of emergency
response readiness, characterised by no feed reserves and a shortage of clear
guidelines and procedures. The Monitoring, Control, and Surveillance (MCS) of
fisheries is also inadequate, compounded by weak enforcement mechanisms.

Objective and KPIs

Enhance food security and resilience through a fully operational system monitoring
internal and external early warnings, a strategic food and feed reserve and a fish
Monitoring, Control, and Surveillance (MCS) system

Initiatives

Component Initiative

307
 A.1 - Strengthen the Early Warning System1 (e.g., Crop yield
and Production Forecasts, Crop Monitoring, outbreak, drought
risk), with an automated integration of external marketing Early
Warnings (e.g., prices, export bans from trade partners) - to be
A. Strengthen integrated to the ‘digital information system’ in the Prime Minister's
a warning Office Disaster Management Department2
system, i.e.,
data A.2 - Establish a unit to inform decisions based on agricultural
management and Food Security data and Statistics interpretation and forecasts
tool with alerts
A.3 - Ensure coordination between local, district, national
levels, incl. different Ministries: implement a training
programme, train at least 75% of relevant personnel across
involved ministries, local Governments on tool

B. Enhance the B.1 - Expand and upgrade grain storage facilities,

strategic food technologies to increase capacity by 10X and integrate advanced
reserve, food stocks mgmt. technologies
including an B.2 - Expand Food Reserve Agency to include feed as a
emergency standalone entity or in collaboration with Ministry of Livestock or
response another entity
mechanism
(guidelines B.3 - Develop digital operational guidelines for MoA and MLF
and SOP) - to quick emergency response in case of hazards affecting agriculture
review existing as well as Standards Operating Procedures (SOP) (i.e., roles,
guidelines responsibilities and legal basis for actions) for the PMO
coordination response

C. Ensure C.1 - Design and strengthen the implementation of policies to

stable fish limit destructive fishing practices (e.g., breeding seasons)
stock by
reinforcing
Monitoring,
C.2 - Establish and implement a stronger enforcement
Control and
mechanism system for Monitoring, Control and Surveillance
Surveillance
(MCS) of fish stock

Costing

Gov Cost, M$ Private Sector Cost, M$

Compo 24/ 25/ 26/ 26/ 30/
nent Initiative 25 26 27 27/28 28/29 29/30 30/31 24/25 25/26 27 27/28 28/29 29/30 31
A. A1.
Strengt Strength
hen a en the
warnin Early
g Warning
system System 0 0 10 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
, i.e., A2.
data Establish 0,0 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

308
manag a unit to
ement inform
tool decision
with s
alerts A3.
Ensure
coordina
tion
between
local,
district
and
national
levels 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
B1.
Expand
and
upgrade
grain
storage
facilities
and
technolo
gies to
B.
increase
Enhanc
capacity
e the
by 10X 0 0 0 20 20 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
strategi
B2.
c food
Expand
reserve
Food
,
Reserve
includi
Agency
ng an
to
emerge
include
ncy
feed 0 0 0 3 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
respon
B3.
se
Develop
mecha
digital
nism
operatio
nal
guideline
s for
MoA and
MLF
quick
emergen
cy
response 0,0 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
C1.
Design
and
strength
en the
impleme
C.
ntation
Ensure
of
stable
policies
fish
to limit
stock
destructi
by
ve
reinfor
fishing
cing
practices 0,0 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,0 0,0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Monitor
C2.
ing,
Establish
Control
and
and
impleme
Surveill
nt a
ance
stronger
(MCS)
enforcem
ent
mechani
sm
system
for MCS 0 7 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL 0 8 16 30 30 34 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

309
Risks & Mitigation

• Poor data quality and segmented access due to disparate sources are
significant risks that can undermine the effectiveness of food security
systems. To address this the implementation of a centralised data integration
platform is crucial. Such a platform would aggregate data from various sources,
ensuring high data quality and consistency. It would also facilitate real-time
access and analytics, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions quickly.
This integration platform should leverage advanced data processing technologies,
including cloud storage, data mining, and machine learning, to detect patterns that
may indicate emerging food security threats.

• The lack of an adequate budget for emergencies can severely delay the
response to food security crises. Allocating a dedicated emergency fund is a
strategic mitigation measure. This fund would be earmarked specifically for rapid
response to food security emergencies, ensuring that financial resources are
immediately available when needed. The management of this fund should be
transparent and guided by strict governance protocols to ensure timely and
effective disbursement of resources during crises. Moreover, the fund could be
supported by various financial instruments, including contingency funds,
emergency credit lines, and international aid agreements, to bolster its capacity.

Post-2030

• Beyond 2030, expanded food reserves will play a critical role in fortifying food
security. These reserves should encompass a wider array of commodities,
particularly those that are nutritionally significant and climate-resilient. The
strategic inclusion of new commodities will help to diversify the food base and
provide a buffer against crop failures or market fluctuations. Alongside this,
enhanced regional collaboration is essential. By working in concert with
neighbouring countries and regional bodies, shared food reserves can be
established, facilitating cross-border flow of food commodities during shortages
and fostering a collective response to food security challenges. Such collaboration
could involve joint investments in storage facilities, coordinated policy-making,
and shared logistics for the distribution of food reserves.

• The proactive management of food security risks will greatly benefit from the
integration of technological and analytical advancements. This includes
leveraging big data analytics, predictive modelling, and machine learning to
anticipate and respond to food security threats before they materialise. The use of
advanced sensors and satellite imagery can provide detailed insights into crop
health, soil moisture levels, and climate impacts, allowing for pre-emptive
measures to safeguard food supplies. Additionally, the application of artificial

310
 intelligence can streamline the analysis of complex data sets, leading to more
accurate forecasting and enabling quicker, more informed decision-making. By
integrating these technological tools, food security systems can evolve from
reactive to proactive, anticipating risks and implementing preventive strategies in
advance.

Locations of current national food reserve capacity, ‘000 MT

311
 D. Flexibility of implementation of the AMP
It is critical to have flexibility in the roadmap provided by the AMP to be able to navigate
potential changes which could arise during the journey. This flexibility is crucial for
addressing shifts in budget allocations—whether increases or decreases—, evolving priorities
due to internal or global trends, and insights gathered from the plan's execution. The AMP's
design encourages periodic adjustments, ensuring it remains a living document that can evolve
in response to new challenges and opportunities, rather than being a rigid blueprint impervious
to change.

Amending the AMP to reflect emerging changes should be done adhering to the
principles and approach of the AMP:

• Engagement with Stakeholders: Central to the AMP's design, stakeholder interaction

and co-creation should continue to influence any modifications to the plan. This
involves identifying and collaborating with stakeholders relevant to the specific changes
being considered, ensuring comprehensive support and alignment.

• Navigating Trade-offs: Adaptation involves making informed choices between

competing priorities, such as balancing the focus between smallholder income and
agricultural GDP growth or considering short-term benefits against long-term
objectives. Engaging in political discussions to manage these trade-offs is crucial.

• Prioritising Interventions: Within budgetary constraints, it's important to continue to

focus on interventions that are feasible and can deliver meaningful outcomes, rather
than spreading resources too thinly across numerous initiatives.

• Understanding Interdependencies: Recognising the interconnectedness of flagship

initiatives is vital. Some flagships are critical to enable others and should hence be
prioritised (e.g. ensuring land availability for seed production is prioritised before
incentivising private seed companies development, ensures the first bottlenecks are
addressed initially)

The task of adapting the AMP requires specific tools and expertise which will be
provided by the Agriculture Transformation Office. The ATO will own and be able to run
the advanced macro-economic models which have been used to design the AMP. This will
allow to run multiple scenarios based on emerging changes and to model the impact on GDP
impact, jobs, undernourishment, and other metrics. This will be critical to ensure deviation from
the AMP are done through a robust fact base and analysis. This will finally need to be done in
collaboration with the key ministries to ensure the changes are anchored and validated at the
highest political level. By embedding flexibility into its framework, the AMP positions itself as a
responsive plan capable of driving Tanzania's agricultural transformation forward, even in the
face of evolving challenges and opportunities.

312
 E. Link to macroeconomic and development commitments
Tanzania’s wider macroeconomic goals can be found outlined in the Five-Year Development
Plan III (FYDP III). The Master Plan strives to align with these wider goals through its own
targets and flagships.
Table 1: Link between AMP and FYDP III objectives

FYDP III objectives Masterplan

To build on achievements realised AMP strives to ensure food security, promote

towards the attainment of Tanzania women’s opportunities, increase smallholder
Development Vision (TDV) 2025 incomes, achieve 10% annual agricultural
growth by 2030, enhance productivity, and
boost exports, in line with the TDV’s goals for
high quality livelihoods and a competitive
economy

To strengthen capacity building in the Flagship 12 will support scaling and

areas of science, technology and strengthening of extension services, for
innovation extension agents to be at the forefront of
disseminating latest agriculture technologies to
smallholders

To strengthen the industrial economy as Various flagships are focused on boosting

a basis for export-driven growth production in select commodities for increased
regional/international exports

More specifically, the objective of Flagship 10 is

to enhance cold chain, and airport/seaport
capacity and efficiency to boost regional and
international exports

To enhance the scope of Tanzania’s Various flagships strive to improve the business
benefits from strategic geographical environment for export-oriented agriculture,
opportunities through improved business including in digitalisation (Flagship 11), finance
environments (Flagship 13), and export
infrastructure/processes (Flagship 10)

More specifically, the objective of Flagship 7 is

to remove agriculture-specific regulatory
barriers to conducting business (including
exports)

To facilitate increased business start-up Flagship 4 will support aspiring young

and private sector involvement entrepreneurs to start their own agri-SMEs;
Flagship 7 will promote scaling of the AGCOT
model to 3 new corridors, to promote private

313
 sector involvement and mitigate private sector
operational challenges

To promote exports of services N/A

To strengthen the implementation of AMP will be executed through an Agricultural

FYDP III Transformation Office that is specifically set up
for implementation of the AMP, with support
from multiple ministries

To ensure that regional and global AMP is aligned with Tanzania’s commitments to
agreements and commitments are fully a number of regional agreements, as elaborated
integrated into national development below

To strengthen the relationship between N/A

the sectors that are endowed with natural
wealth and resources with other
economic and social sectors

To strengthen the role of Local AMP directly involves local Government as key
Government Authorities (LGAs) in stakeholders to facilitate programme-level
bringing about development execution across flagships

To strengthen the country’s capacity to Flagship 13 will support improved access to

finance development finance for both smallholders and commercial
players

It is critical to ensure that the AMP reflects and addresses Tanzania’s international and
climate commitments. In terms of international commitments, five key commitments have
been assessed and alignment with the AMP has been ensured. These five commitments are
the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), African
Agribusiness and Agro-industries Development Initiative (3ADI), UN Food Systems
Summit/Dialogue, Dakar 2 Summit and the Malabo Declaration. From a climate perspective,
Tanzania’s Nationally Determined Contribution has been assessed against the AMP,
specifically against the relevant mitigation measures to reach the planned 30-35% emissions
reduction by 2030.

International Commitments

1. 2003 Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (led to the 2011

‘Tanzania Agriculture and Food Security Investment Plan’)
Table 32: Link between AMP and CAADP

Pillars Masterplan

Extending the area under Flagship 1 will support expanded area under irrigation,
sustainable land management for food and feed

314
 and reliable water control Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under
systems restoration to improve resilience

Flagship 14 will support increased access to and

optimised use of high potential land

Improving rural infrastructure Flagship 7 will facilitate the removal of agriculture-

and trade-related capacities for specific barriers to conducting business (including
market access exports), and promote PPP agreements for
infrastructure development

Flagship 10 will facilitate regional and international

export by creating a conducive environment for private
sector to upgrade cold chain infrastructure, and by
promoting PPP for optimisation of airport and seaport
facilities

Increasing food supply, reducing Flagship 6 will support the development of traditional
hunger, and improving cash crops and major food crops through board-led
responses to food emergency excellence
crisis
Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning
system to monitor food resilience

Improving agriculture research, Flagship 2 will support the acceleration of Government

technology dissemination and seed production and support private seed producers
adoption (including through R&D)

Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under

restoration to improve resilience

Flagship 5 includes livestock research for creation of a

new improved indigenous cattle breed

Flagship 12 will support extension services to more

effectively disseminate latest ag. technologies and train
smallholders on climate-smart practices

2. 2010 African Agribusiness and Agro-industries Development Initiative (3ADI)

Table 43: Link between AMP and 3ADI

Goals Masterplan

Skills and technologies needed Flagship 4 will support the incubation of agri-SMEs,
for the postproduction segments some of which will specialise in post-harvest
of agriculture value chains management and small- or medium-scale processing

Flagship 9 will support to add value to prioritised

commodities, through the development of agro-
processing zones

315
 Innovative institutions and Flagship 11 will support the digitalisation of farmer
services registration and the entire agriculture ecosystem
(including extension services, real-time market
information, etc.)

The ATO is new institution tasked with overseeing the

implementation of the AMP

Financing and risk mitigation Flagship 3 will facilitate increased access to financial
mechanisms services, both for smallholders and commercial ag.
players

Enabling policies and provision Flagship 7 will facilitate the removal of agriculture-
of public goods specific barriers to conducting business (including
exports)

3. 2021 UN Food Systems Summit/Dialogue (led to the 2021 ‘Pathways for Sustainable
Food Systems’)
Table 54: Link between AMP and the Pathways for Sustainable Food Systems

Action tracks Masterplan

Ensuring access to safe and Flagship 6 will support the development of traditional
nutritious food for all cash crops and major food crops through board-led
excellence

Flagship 8 will accelerate commercial production of

specific commodities, which are prioritised for nutritional
benefits (e.g., poultry for increased lean protein
consumption)

Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning

system to monitor food resilience

Shifting to sustainable Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under
consumption patterns restoration to improve resilience

Flagship 6 will support the development of traditional

cash crops and major food crops through board-led
excellence

Flagship 8 will accelerate commercial production of

specific commodities, which are prioritised for given
relatively more sustainable production (e.g., poultry and
aquaculture)

Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning

system to monitor food resilience

Boosting nature-positive Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under
production restoration to improve resilience

316
 Advancing equitable livelihoods Various flagships will support improved smallholder
livelihoods, driven by productivity improvements and
increased market access, including Flagship 4 to
enhance access to quality inputs and markets via
smallholder group formation and agri-SMEs, Flagship
12 to improve extension services, and Flagship 13 to
increase access to finance

Building resilience to Flagship 1 will support expanded area under irrigation

vulnerabilities, shocks, and for food and feed
stress
Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under
restoration to improve resilience

Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning

system to monitor food resilience

4. 2023 Dakar 2 ‘Feed Africa’ Summit (led to the 2023 ‘Food and Agricultural Delivery
Compact’)
Table 65: Link between AMP and the Dakar 2 Food and Agricultural Delivery Compact

Value chain and investment Masterplan

goals

Reduce wheat import bill Flagship 6 will support the development of traditional
cash crops and major food crops through board-led
excellence

Flagship 8 will accelerate commercial production of 5

specific commodities, including wheat

Wheat is selected as a prioritised commodity across the

AMP

Reduce sunflower and Flagship 6 will support the development of traditional

soyabean import bill cash crops and major food crops through board-led
excellence

Flagship 8 will accelerate commercial production of 5

specific commodities, including soyabeans

Soyabean is selected as a prioritised commodity across

the AMP

Increase horticulture production Fruits (bananas, avocados) and vegetables (tomatoes,

by 40% cassava, Irish potatoes) are selected as priority
commodities for the AMP

Produce 742 tonnes of red meat Flagship 5 will support increased production to ~1,300
and double domestic supply of tonnes of red meat and will 2X dairy production
milk and dairy products

317
 Red meat and dairy are selected as prioritised
commodities across the AMP

Scale up seed delivery to 200k Flagship 2 will support the acceleration of Government
MT and fertiliser use to 1 mn MT seed production and support private seed producers

Flagship 8 will accelerate commercial production of 5

specific commodities, including fertilisers

Support 12,000 profitable Flagship 4 will directly support the creation of 12,000
enterprises across 12,000 youth-led agri-SMEs across the country; the Flagship
villages across the country will also support the incubation of an additional 3,000
agri-SMEs through third-party accelerator programmes

Flagship 7 will facilitate the removal of agriculture-

specific barriers to conducting business (including
exports)

Flagship 8 will accelerate commercial production of 5

specific commodities

5. 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth

Table 76: Link between AMP and the Malabo Declaration

Commitment or Goals Masterplan

Enhance investment finance, The AMP aims to commit to a higher budget for
both public and private, to agriculture for implementation of the Flagship initiatives
agriculture (e.g., 10% public
expenditure on ag) Flagship 7 supports the deployment of additional PPPs
for agriculture-specific projects

Ending hunger in Africa by 2025 Flagship 6 will support the development of traditional
(e.g., by doubling agricultural cash crops and major food crops through board-led
growth, halving PHL, reduce excellence
stunting by 10% and
underweight by 5%) Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning
system to monitor food resilience

Ensure that the agricultural The AMP is guided by 10 principles, one of which is
growth and transformation inclusion
process is inclusive and
contributes at least 50% to the The AMP includes 4 key targets for 2030, which include
overall poverty reduction target increases in smallholder incomes and agricultural GDP
(e.g., sustain agricultural GDP
growth of at least 6%, create job
for at least 30% of young people
in agricultural value chains

Harness markets and trade Flagship 7 will facilitate the removal of agriculture-
opportunities, locally, regionally specific barriers to conducting business (including
exports)

318
 and internationally (e.g., triple Flagship 10 will facilitate regional and international
inter-Africa trade export by creating a conducive environment for private
sector to upgrade cold chain infrastructure, and by
promoting PPP for optimisation of airport and seaport
facilities

Reduce vulnerabilities of the Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under
livelihoods of our population restoration to improve resilience
through building resilience of
systems (e.g., ensure that at Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning
least 30% of agricultural system to monitor food resilience
households are resilient to
climate risks)

Climate Commitments
Per its NDC, Tanzania has committed to a 30-35% emissions reduction by 2030 from the
business-as-usual scenario.123 In order to reach this target, mitigation measures across various
sectors have been outlined in the NDC. Most relevant to the AMP are those measures in the
areas of agriculture, livestock, coastal/marine/fisheries and land use.
Table 87: Link between AMP and Tanzania’s climate commitments

Mitigation measures Masterplan

Crops

Upscaling the level of Flagship 1 will support expanded area under irrigation,
improvement of agricultural land for food and feed
and water resources
management. Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under
restoration to improve resilience

Increasing productivity in an Flagship 3 will support mapping and placing land under
environmentally sustainable way restoration to improve resilience , and transitioning
through, inter alia, climate-smart smallholder farmers to regenerative agricultural
agriculture interventions. practices

Promoting accessible Flagship 13 will support improved access to finance,

mechanisms for smallholder including insurance
farmers against climate related
shocks, including crop Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning
insurances. system to monitor food resilience

Strengthening agricultural Flagship 2 will support the acceleration of Government

research and development seed production and support private seed producers
(including through R&D)

123
Tanzania Nationally Determined Contribution, July 2021

319
Strengthening knowledge Flagship 12 will support scaling and strengthening of
systems, extension services and extension services, for extension agents to be at the
agricultural infrastructure to forefront of disseminating latest agriculture
target climate actions, including technologies to smallholders (including climate smart
using climate services and local practices)
knowledge.
Livestock

Promoting of local and modern Flagship 5 will support training of livestock keepers in
climate resilience knowledge for sustainable fodder production (e.g., pasture rotation,
sustainable pasture and best practices for carbon sequestration)
rangeland management systems
and practices.
Enhancing climate resilience Flagship 5 will support construction of bore holes in
livestock infrastructures and community small ranches and storage facilities for hay
services. (during prolonged drought conditions)

Promoting livelihood Four different livestock commodities are selected as

diversification of livestock priority commodities in AMP (dairy, red meat, poultry,
keepers. and fodder)

Promoting accessible Flagship 13 will support improved access to finance for

mechanisms for livestock livestock keepers, including insurance
keepers against climate related
shocks, including livestock
insurances.

Enhancing livestock productivity Flagship 5 will support construction of bore holes in

through climate-smart community small ranches and storage facilities for hay
interventions. (during prolonged drought conditions)

Strengthening livestock research Flagship 5 will support R&D for improved indigenous
and development. breeds with enhanced climate resilience and
adaptability to TZ’s specific agro-ecological zones

Coastal/marine/fisheries

Strengthening the management Flagship 15 will support strengthening fish Monitoring,

of coastal and marine resources Control, and Surveillance
and monitoring systems.

Promoting sustainable livelihood Aquaculture is selected as one of the priority

diversification for coastal commodities in the AMP
communities

Improving early warning Flagship 15 will support strengthening the early warning
systems of both sea level rise system to monitor food resilience
impacts and extreme weather
events.
Increasing productivity in an Aquaculture is selected as one of the priority
environmentally sustainable way commodities in the AMP
through inter alia climate-smart

320
fisheries and aquaculture
interventions.
Promoting accessible Flagship 13. will support improved access to finance for
mechanisms for small-holder fisherfolk, including insurance
fishers and farmers against
climate related shocks, including
insurance.

Strengthening extension Flagship 12. will support scaling and strengthening of

services and technologies for extension services, for extension agents to be at the
fisheries and aquaculture forefront of disseminating latest agriculture
development. technologies to smallholders
Land use/human settlement

Promoting resilient land use Flagship 3. will support mapping and placing land under
planning and management. restoration to improve resilience

321
 F. Link to ASDP II priority investment areas and the midterm review
recommendations
To ensure continuity as the sector transitions from ASDP II to the Agriculture Master
Plan, it is critical to map the bridge between both documents. In particular, it is important
to show how the components of ASDP II fit within the Master Plan and how the
recommendations from the Mid-term-review of ASDP II are taken into consideration in the
design of the AMP. The AMP itself builds on ASDP II, but goes further by detailing yearly
funding needs and sources, yearly KPIs, clear responsibilities for each outcome, cost/impact
assessment, the commodity lens, the set-up of the ATO to coordinate the governance, and
strengthens the food systems lens.
Table 108: Link between AMP and ASDP II MTR recommendations

Recommendations Masterplan

Component 1 — Sustainable water and land use management

Focus on irrigation rehabilitation to ensure Flagship 1 supports both the development of

the sustainability of constructed schemes. new irrigation schemes their management
Consideration should be given to models and the strengthening of existing schemes
that involve community-based models and
the private sector

Invest in constructing and enhancing water Flagship 5 Unlock red meat and dairy
sources for livestock, particularly farmers’ access to formal market channels
boreholes

Speeding up and scaling the process of Flagship 14 Increase access and optimise
developing land use plans, and more use of high potential land
importantly detailed land use plans for all
villages, and strengthening laws for
agricultural land protection

Focus on increasing adoption of CSA Flagship 3 Map and place land under
practices and technologies by sensitising restoration to improve resilience and increase
farmers and beginning with low-cost the usage of sustainable practices
practices

Incorporate soil management, Flagship 3 Map and place land under

conservation, and biodiversity aspects into restoration to improve resilience
the component, given their key role in
ensuring sustainable agricultural practices

Component 2 — Enhanced agricultural productivity and profitability

322
Demonstrate a greater focus on food Flagship 9 Enhance added value through the
systems elements such as biofortification development of agro-processing zones
and food safety
Flagship 15 Strengthen the early warning
system to monitor food resilience

Target and prioritise value chains that are Flagship 5 Unlock red meat and dairy
coherent with Tanzania’s nutritional goals farmers’ access to formal market channels
including protein-rich value chains and
fruits and vegetables Flagship 6 Develop traditional cash crops and
major food crops through board-led
excellence

Flagship 8 Accelerate the development of

commercial activities in priority commodities

Commodities prioritised: poultry, aquaculture,

dairy, fruits and vegetables

Invest in enhancing awareness and Flagship 12 Strengthen and scale extension

understanding of communities on diet service
diversification

Invest in enhancing access to improved Flagship 2 Develop Government seed

seeds including seed research, seeds production and support private seed
subsidies, seeds tracking and monitoring producers

Strengthen the existing fertiliser system Flagship 11 Digitalise farmer registration and
including the farmer registry and agriculture ecosystem
distribution network at village levels
Flagship 4 Provide smallholders integrated
services across the value chain

Component 3 — Commercialisation and added value

Focus on reducing post-harvest losses Flagship 9 Enhance added value through the
and added value for crops and fisheries development of agro-processing zones
products including the warehouse receipt
system Flagship 10 Facilitate regional and
international export by creating a conducive
environment for private sector to upgrade
cold chain infrastructure and promoting PPP
for optimisation of airport and seaport
facilities

Broaden the focus of losses to cover end- Flagship 9 Enhance added value through the
to-end value chain, including losses in development of agro-processing zones
food processing

323
Strengthen the link between farmers and Flagship 4 Provide smallholders integrated
agro-processors to increase the added services across the value chain (through
value of agricultural products strengthening and creation of farmer
groups and SME ecosystem)
• Continue to improve the rural road
network and electricity Flagship 9 Enhance added value through the
infrastructure to connect farmers to development of agro-processing zones
agro-processors

• Extend livestock processing

industries to other zones with high
livestock or livestock population
production

Component 4 — programme implementation, sector enablers, coordination and M&E

Communicate to stakeholders including The governance of the AMP will illustrate the
those at LGA levels on the positioning of link to local Government
ASDP II as the overarching framework for
agricultural sector development The ATO will have a dedicated coordination
role to ensure this link with local Government

Strengthen the coordination by ensuring The ATO will serve as the central unit to
that the programme is anchored and coordinate the implementation of the Master
coordinated in well-capacitated unit Plan

Ensure funding availability for The ATO will be appropriately funded to carry
coordination, e.g., mechanism where DPs out its mandate
contribute a percentage of the project
budget to the fund

Ensure that Technical Working Groups To be addressed in the governance

(TWGs) are established and resourced to
function well.

Streamline indicators and ensure that only Each flagship will have yearly KPIs
relevant and traceable indicators are associated with the initiatives
retained for the remaining five years

Enhance the capacity for data collection Flagship 11 Digitalise farmer registration and
and digitisation at local Government levels agriculture ecosystem
e.g., increasing access to extension staff
The ATO will work closely with the M&E
departments of the different ministries

Design a mechanism to track private The Master Plan identifies clear financing
sector financing in the agricultural sector needs from the private sector and the ATO
tracks large financing

324
 Enhance the availability financial services Flagship 13 Enhance access to financial
(credits, insurance etc.) services

*See the flagships sections for a full description of the each of the flagships.

325
 G. Modelling the Economywide Impacts of the Masterplan
The Agriculture Master Plan (AMP) aims to transform, not only the agricultural sector itself, but
also the broader agrifood system and economy. A dynamic economywide model was used to
translate how each of the Flagship investment areas raises production and incomes in the
targeted agricultural and processing sectors, and how this, in turn, generates additional
incomes and jobs throughout the value chain and across the economy. The economywide
model used to evaluate the potential benefits of the AMP is the RIAPA Data and Modelling
System developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) RIAPA is
specially designed to capture the detailed characteristics and workings of Tanzania’s agrifood
system, and to track how changes in the agrifood system affect household and individual level
outcomes, such as incomes, poverty, and undernourishment. Figure 1 provides a conceptual
framework showing the different components of the RIAPA modelling system.

The core component of RIAPA is a RIAPA Model Framework

dynamic computable general equilibrium
(CGE) model. It separates the Tanzanian
economy into 86 production sectors, 36
of which are in primary agriculture and 17
are in agro-processing. Primary
agriculture, for example, includes, maize
farming, whereas maize milling is in
agro-processing with the broader
manufacturing sector. Producers in each
sector seek to maximise profits by
combining land, labour, capital, and other
inputs, based on unique sectoral
technologies and relative input prices.
Farmers in the model can reallocate land
across crops in response to changing
prices. For example, if a Flagship’s
investments cause maize production to
rise and prices to fall, then farmers may
reallocate some of their maize land to
other crops. They may also shift some of
their labour to nonfarm activities, since Source: IFPRI RIAPA model ([Link]/project/riapa-
workers in the model are able to migrate model)
between sectors based on relative wage
and self-employment earning opportunities. The model also captures unpaid family and
informal sector jobs, as well as farm households’ production for their own consumption. The
model can track how investments that increase productivity for smallholder maize farmers
could lead to them consuming more maize within their own households, greater marketed
supply of maize, increased crop diversification, and the migration of members of the maize
farming household to work in other parts of the economy. The model’s economywide scale,
coupled with its detailed treatment of sector level production and employment, makes it an
effective tool for assessing how the AMP investments could transform Tanzania’s agricultural
sector, create new off-farm job opportunities within the agrifood system, and encourage faster
national economic growth and structural change.

The core CGE model also separates the entire Tanzanian population in representative
household groups. All households captured in the national Household Budget Survey are

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divided across rural-urban location, farm-nonfarm status, and per capita consumption
expenditure quintiles. Each household group has unique income and consumption patterns
based on the information from the survey. For example, poor rural farm households tend to
earn more of their income from farming and informal sector work, and they spend more of their
income on food consumption and basic needs goods and services. As such, investments in
agriculture are generally more likely to benefit poor rural farm households, as well as net food
consumers, which includes most poor urban households. Thus, in addition to being
economywide, a second key feature of RIAPA is its ability to track how changes in sectoral
production and employment translate into changes in incomes and consumption for different
household groups.

A third feature of RAIPA is that the CGE model is linked to a survey-based microsimulation
model that allows it to track changes in household-level outcomes, such as poverty,
undernourishment, and diet quality. This is important, because investments that are found to
be the most cost-effective at driving economic growth and job creation, may not also be the
most effective at reducing poverty or food insecurity. How strong the link is between a sector’s
growth and its impact on household outcomes depends on which kinds of farms, firms or
workers benefit from the sector’s growth process, and what kinds of households are more likely
to benefit from the increased supply and lower prices for that sector’s output. The combination
of a detailed economywide and survey-based microsimulation models allows RIAPA to
captures these linkages in a comprehensive and considerably detailed data-driven way.

The RIAPA model was used to evaluate the potential future impacts of the AMP on a range of
targeted outcomes. These included the AMP’s contributions to agricultural and total GDP and
to household poverty, undernourishment, and diet quality. In the first stage of the analysis,
RIAPA was used to generate a baseline or “business-as-usual” growth pathway for Tanzania.
This assumed that, in the absence of the AMP, the economy and agricultural sector would
continue to grow and develop in patterns that are consistent with recent historical trends. Key
inputs to the baseline included population and labour force projections to 2030; production and
productivity changes for individual crops and animals over the last decade (2012-2022); and
data from official national accounts on GDP growth rates by sector (also for 2012-2022).

In the second stage of analysis, the detailed information behind the Flagships was used to
design model scenarios that capture major impact channels and investment areas. Flagship
information on intermediate outputs and investment costs were used to estimate how sector-
level production, crop land area, and animal stocks might change if the Flagships were fully
implemented in. Flagship scenarios were run separately to generate Flagship-specific benefit-
cost ratios. The Flagships were also run together to capture any possible spillovers or
interactions between flagships and to assess the overall impact of the AMP. Three Flagships
were not included the analysis: Flagship 6 (Boards); Flagship 7 (Ease of Doing Business); and
Flagship 15 (Warning Systems). This is due to the fact that these flagships’ impact is already
modelled in other flagships and counting them again would lead to double counting.

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 H. Crop suitability analysis
To define the crops considered in the analysis, stakeholder input and key agricultural
commodities for Tanzania were taken into consideration. The commodities considered in the
analysis are avocado, banana, cashew, cloves, coffee, cotton, green gram, Irish potato,
kidney beans, maize, paddy, pigeon peas, seeds, sesame, sisal, sorghum, soya beans,
sunflower, tomatoes, and wheat.

To ensure only available land is considered for crop production, several land-use filters have
been applied to exclude protected areas (e.g., national parks), existing forests (no
deforestation), urban areas and land areas that are too steep for mechanised farming.
Additionally, existing cropland has been excluded for land expansion analysis.

Each crop has specific climate (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and soil (e.g., soil pH and
soil depth) requirements in the form of a range, with a minimum and a maximum. Crops with
a wide range are typically suitable to be grown in many climates and places. To assess land
suitability, crop requirements were compared in a geospatial analysis to local environmental
conditions in terms of soil and climate. Temperature and precipitation are based on average
values. This means extreme climate events that may influence crop location (e.g., flooding)
are not considered. An overall suitability score is created based on the suitability of a given
land area across each of the conditions; land areas with a high score across all dimensions
are considered highly suitable, while land areas with suitability in some conditions are
considered moderately suitable. Suitability is mapped spatially, in addition to being
aggregated to the regional level.

Figure 96 Highlights the suitability mapping process

This analysis is meant to provide information on opportunities for land expansion based on
agronomic potential. As such, it does not factor in farming practices (e.g., input usage,
irrigation) or economic factors (e.g., farm size, set up costs, operational costs).

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 I. Glossary
Agriculture: The practice of cultivating crops, raising livestock, and harvesting fisheries in the
production of food, fibre, and other products used to sustain and enhance human life

Arable land: This refers to land potentially fit for agriculture.

Cultivated land: This refers to land under currently being used for production.

Village land: This refers to land which is owned by the village and administered by the village
council.

Land degradation: This refers to the biophysical disturbance which inhibits the ability of land
to perform its normal function of supporting crop growth, livestock development and managing
biodiversity.

Regenerative agriculture: This refers to farming and grazing practices which rebuild soil
organic matter, restore degraded soil biodiversity and improve overall soil health. Examples
include agroforestry, which is planting of trees on cropland, silvopasture, which is planting of
trees on pastureland, reduced tillage, which is limiting the preparation of soil though
mechanical tillage, integrated/rotational grazing, which is moving grazing livestock between
pastures

Major food crops: This includes maize, rice/paddy, cassava, pulses/beans, sunflower, soya
beans, sorghum and wheat.

Traditional cash crops: This includes cashew nuts, cotton, coffee, sisal, etc.

Horticulture crops: This includes four categories; vegetables e.g., cabbage, fruits e.g.,
avocados, spices e.g., cloves and flowers.

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Permanent Secretary Permanent Secretary
Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Ministry of Agriculture
Administration Department Administration Department
Government city - Mtumba Government city - Mtumba
P.O Box 2870 P.O Box 2182
40487 Dodoma
Email: ps@[Link]