Mathematical Modeling of Electricity
Consumption Behavior Following Grid
Access in Rwanda
Niyigaba Dominique Savio
February, 2026
Department of Electrical Engineering – University of Rwanda
1 ABSTRACT
This study develops a mathematical model describing electricity consumption behaviour
after households gain access to the national electricity grid in Rwanda. A logistic growth
model is used to represent consumption expansion over time while econometric log-log
regression is used to estimate electricity demand elasticity. Simulation results suggest
that electricity demand is relatively price inelastic and consumption gradually increases
as households acquire appliances before stabilizing near a saturation level.
2 INTRODUCTION
Electricity access is an essential driver of socio-economic development. Rwanda has
achieved major progress in electrification in recent years. However, access alone does
not guarantee development impact. The level of electricity consumption following con-
nection determines economic productivity, utility revenues and long-term infrastructure
sustainability.
3 METHODOLOGY
3.1 Monthly Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption
The monthly growth rate of electricity consumption is defined as:
Ct − Ct−1
gt = × 100% (1)
Ct−1
where Ct represents consumption during month t and Ct−1 represents consumption during
the previous month.
1
3.2 Logistic Growth Model
Electricity consumption after connection is assumed to follow a logistic growth pattern:
K
C(t) = (2)
K−C0
1+ C0
e−rt
Where:
• C(t) – electricity consumption after t months
• K – long-term saturation consumption level
• C0 – initial consumption immediately after connection
• r – consumption growth rate parameter
3.3 Price Elasticity Model
To estimate electricity demand elasticity, the following log-log regression model is used:
ln(Cit ) = α + β ln(Pit ) + γ1 ln(Yit ) + γ2 ln(Hit ) + δt + εit (3)
Where:
• Cit – electricity consumption of household i at time t
• Pit – electricity price
• Yit – household income
• Hit – household size
• β – price elasticity of electricity demand
3.4 Consumption Dynamics
The logistic model can also be expressed as the following differential equation:
dC C
= rC 1 − (4)
dt K
This equation shows that growth slows as consumption approaches the saturation level
K.
3.5 Critical Consumption Threshold
The minimum consumption level required for productive electricity use is estimated as:
Power × Hours × 30
Ccrit = (5)
1000
2
3.6 Time Required to Reach the Threshold
Using the logistic model, the time required to reach the critical threshold is:
1 Ccrit (K − C0 )
tcrit = ln (6)
r C0 (K − Ccrit )
4 SIMULATION RESULTS
Figure 1 illustrates the predicted consumption trajectory after grid connection.
Figure 1:
Figure 2 shows the monthly growth rate of electricity consumption.
Figure 2:
Figure 3 shows the inverse relationship between electricity price and consumption.
3
Figure 3:
Figure 4 presents the log-log relationship used to estimate price elasticity.
Figure 4:
Figure 5 presents cumulative electricity consumption over the first 24 months.
4
Figure 5:
5 DISCUSSION
The results suggest that electricity demand in Rwanda is relatively price inelastic (elas-
ticity ≈ −0.42). Consumption increases rapidly during the first year after connection as
households acquire basic appliances and then gradually stabilizes as saturation is reached.
6 CONCLUSION
This research developed a mathematical model describing post-connection electricity con-
sumption in Rwanda using logistic growth theory and econometric demand estimation.
The analysis shows that electricity demand grows gradually following grid access before
stabilizing near a long-term saturation level. Demand is relatively price inelastic while
income and household size positively influence consumption levels.
Despite these insights, the study has several limitations. The regression estimates are
based on simulated data and therefore may not fully capture real household behaviour.
In addition, the model assumes similar behaviour across households while actual con-
sumption patterns differ across income levels and between rural and urban areas.
Future research should incorporate real billing data from Rwanda Energy Group,
perform spatial analysis across districts, and investigate how electricity consumption
transitions from basic household use to productive economic activities.
5
7 REFERENCES
1. Rwanda Energy Group (REG). (2023). Annual Report 2022–2023. Kigali: Rwanda
Energy Group.
2. Ministry of Infrastructure (MININFRA). (2023). Energy Sector Strategic Plan
2018–2024: Progress Review Report. Kigali: Government of Rwanda.
3. Kenneth Lee, Edward Miguel, & Catherine Wolfram. (2020). Experimental evidence
on the economics of rural electrification. Journal of Political Economy, 128(4),
1523–1565.
4. James A. Espey & Molly Espey. (2004). Turning on the lights: A meta-analysis of
residential electricity demand elasticities. Journal of Agricultural and Applied
Economics, 36(1), 65–81.
5. Damodar N. Gujarati & Dawn C. Porter. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). New
York: McGraw-Hill Education.