1.

Introduction to Population Statistics

1.1. Demographic Concepts
Demography is the study of human population dynamics. It encompasses the study of:
- the size, structure and distribution of populations;
- how populations change over time due to births, deaths, migration and ageing.
Achille Guillard (1855) defined demography as- the natural and social history of the human
species or the mathematical knowledge of populations, of their general changes, and of their
physical, civil, intellectual and moral conditions. In the Multilingual Demographic Dictionary
(Van de Walle, 1982), demography defined as-the scientific study of the human populations,
primarily with respect to their size, their structure and their development.

Demography may be defined narrowly or broadly as

a. The narrowest sense is that of formal demography which helps to describe and analyses
population growth. Formal demography is concerned with the size, distribution, structure and
changes of populations.
 Size is the number of units or persons in the population.
 Distribution refers to the arrangement of the population in space at a given time.
 Structure is the distribution of the population among its sex and age groupings.
 Change is the growth or decline of the total population or one of its structural units.
The components of change in total population are births, deaths and migrations.

b. A broader sense of demography includes additional characteristics of the units such as ethnic,
social, economic and others.
 Ethnic characteristics include: race, legal nationality, mother tongue;
 Social characteristics include: marital and family status, place of birth, literacy,
educational attainment;
 Economic characteristics include: economic activity, employment status, occupation,
industry, income;
 Genetic inheritance, intelligence and health might be considered as other
characteristics; but the usual source of demographic data (e.g., Censuses) seldom deal
with these directly.

c. The widest sense of demography extends to applications of its data and findings in a number
of fields including the study of problems that are related to demographic process such as
 pressure of populations upon resources,
 depopulation,
 family limitation,
 the assimilation of immigrants, urban and rural likelihoods.

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Growth, decline or maintenance of the same population is all outcomes of the three vital
processes which are births, deaths and migration.

1.2. The Development of Demographic Study

Studying size, growth and characteristics of human population has a long history. The Chinese
philosophers noted that excessive population growth might:
 reduce output per worker;
 depress the living standards of the masses;
 cause conflict.
In the 18th century the Physiocrats (a group of philosophers) emphasized agriculture and the need
to grow sufficient food for a large population. William Godwin in Great Britain and Marquis de
Condercet in France asserted late in the 18th century that excessive population would never be a
problem for a nation with sufficient scientific knowledge and equitable social institutions. The
English man Thomas Robert Malthus opposed the positive views of population growth of
Godwin and Condorcent.

Malthus (1798) argued that food shortages would occur because of the difference between
arithmetic growths of food production against geometric growth of human populations. That
means populations tend to grow at a rapid rate than the food supply needed to sustain them.
Malthus was considered as the father of substantive demography. He achieved this position not
because what he said was all new and all true but because he initiated tremendous debate and
controversy over the relationship between food and population. Controversy over population has
tended to revolve around attitudes towards Malthus ever since his time. Optimists, liberals, and
socialists have generally opposed him and pessimists and conservatives have supported him.

1.3. Types and Sources of Demographic Data

There are two main aspects of the behavior of the populations:
- the composition of the aggregate and
- the changes that occur during some period of observation.
The composition of a population is described by the distribution of people among certain more or
less standard categories. Changes are the results of events, which add or take away members of
the population. For this reason births and deaths are called vital events. Migration, marriages,
divorces and other events are also called vital events though they do not more than transfer
people from one category to another in the same population.

The type of demographic information required for any country could be categorized into two
fundamentally different forms. The first type is concerned with the counting of individuals and
the second with a recording of events. Accordingly, the principal demographic data collection
methods could be divided broadly into two categories. These are
a. Enumeration method: counting all the persons present; usually provided by a census.

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 b. Registration method of vital events: record of vital events, generally events occurring in a
calendar year.
The distinction between these two forms of statistics is not really based on the method of getting
facts. It lies in the nature of the facts themselves one is a record of persons and the other is a
record of events.

The enumeration method encompasses censuses and sample surveys, while the registration
method refers mainly to vital statistics registration system and population registers. Data
collection method that yields a count of individuals is census, while the method that yields record
of events is vita/civil (statistics) registration system. Therefore, census produces the stock of a
population of a given country or area in a static way (showing the size and composition at a
given point in time). On the other hand, vital statistics registration system (VSRS) provides a
flow of a record of vital events (that determine the process of change) in a dynamic way.
Therefore, censuses, VSRS, sample surveys and population registers are the major sources of
demographic data. They can be put categorically as follows:

 Enumeration method
 Censuses (Population and Housing)
 Sample Surveys
 Registration method
 Vital Statistics Registration System
 Population Registers
The economically developed nations are securing the stock and flow data through population
censuses and vital statistics registration system, respectively, while the developing (3rd world)
nations for the stock as well as the flow data nearly all use censuses and sample survey methods.

1.4. Data Collection Methods and Mechanisms

The major demographic data sources are censuses, sample surveys and vital statistics registration
systems. These data sources have distinct purposes as well as common or complementary use
providing the broad-based population data need. The instruments used for the data collection
exercise, specifically between those under the enumeration method and the registration method
vary. For example, censuses and sample surveys use questionnaires to fill-in responses of
individual inquires and usually done through canvassing the study area, while vital statistics
registration system is an event recording exercise with a standard recording format to be filled
following a passive and/or active data collection mode. Each of the demographic data collection
methods is dealt below.

1.4.1. Population Census

A population census is the largest, most extensive and costly government exercise of a country.
Census could be seen as an inventory exercise of governments, about the individual entities

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under their administration. It is designed to give mainly the stock of a country’s population at a
given point in time.

A population census is defined as the total process of collecting, compiling and publishing data
on the demographic, social and economic situation of all persons in a specified territory at a
particular time.

A modern census has four essential features:

1. Individual enumeration - the study units are individuals and the census counts each and
every individual.
2. Universality within a precisely defined territory - all individuals are required to be
included in the census. Here a distinction should be made between two types of
enumeration methods in order to maintain universality. *The de-facto count refers to the
people actually present at the census night, while the de-jure count refers to the people
usually resident in the enumeration area.
3. Simultaneity - refers to the timing of the enumeration, at a particular short time (census
moment), which in practice is difficult to attain.
4. Defined periodicity - censuses should be taken at regular intervals so that comparable
information is made available in a fixed sequence. It is recommended that a national
census be taken at least every 10 years.

1.4.2. Vital Statistics Registration System (VSRS)

It is a continuous, permanent and compulsory data collection method that records the occurrence
of the events, principally of birth, death, marriage and divorce and also annulment, separation,
adoptions, legitimization and recognition primarily to provide legal evidence about the civil
status of individuals and secondary for the compilation and production of vital statistics data.
Even though, the vital events that occur in individual’s life are mainly in number as observed
above, however, the major ones and dominantly exercised in most countries registration system
are four. The compilation of the individual records for statistical purpose has a long history,
which is known as VSRS. Therefore, VSRS has been considered and serving as one major
demographic data source.

Major characteristic features of vital statistics registration

1. Data Collection Mechanism
Currently in the developing countries, the two modes (active and passive) of vital event
recording schemes are being practiced, however the conventional method for the
recording of vital events is the passive mode of registration.
 Passive mode - the registrars wait in their office for the individuals to come and
register a vital event.
 Active mode - which is used to supplement the passive mode in order to capture
the unreported vital events by making house to house visit by the registrars.

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 2. Frequency and characteristics of data collection
 Continuous, permanent and compulsory
3. Types of data items collected
 Vital events
4. Data collection instruments
 Standard vital record forms
5. Current status
 In almost all the developed countries VSRS exists and it is the single data source
for birth, death, marriage and divorce statistics.
 Nearly in all the developing countries the system could be said non-existent, and
in the few countries where the system exists it is incomplete.
6. Purpose of the data collection exercise
 For legal and administrative purpose
 For the compilation of vital statistics data.
7. Major use in demographic work
 Provide vital statistics data that helps to keep the dynamism of census data and
provide local level population information on a continuous and permanent basis.
8. Types of Demographic data output
 Flow of vital statistics information.

1.4.3. Sample surveys

Sample survey uses census type data collection mechanisms and recent developments as
compared to census and vital statistics registration system. The basic difference between sample
survey and census is that surveys involve only a sample of a population rather than the whole.

The advantage of sampling compared to censuses is that

 They reduce efforts(collection and processing)
 Save cost and energy(less man power)
 Save time to accommodate more detailed information
And hence the results would be released in shorter period compared to censuses. On the other
hand, the major disadvantage of the survey is that they do not provide data for lower
administrative areas and also introduce sampling errors, which would actually be minimized by
increasing the sample size.
Ways of inquiry in surveys
1. Retrospective (surveys) – base their inquiry by asking about events that happened in the
past.
2. Prospective surveys- base their inquiry by following the events in their future course
(which is difficult and not common).
Major types of demographic sample surveys
 Single round surveys (one shot surveys)

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  Multi-round surveys (conducting repeatedly in round or periodically)
 Dual-record methods (use two types of independent data collection methods)

1.5. Data collection instruments

The most commonly used data collection instruments are questionnaires in the case of censuses
and surveys, registration forms in vital statistics registration system.
 A Questionnaire is a form that is designed to collect information in such a way that a
written series questions designed to elicit information from an informant on a given topic
administered by an enumerator or interviewer or could be self administered.
 Registration Forms are designed to register vital events within short time period of the
occurrence of an event. Even though, the practice in different countries varies however, it
is customary to prepare registration records, certificates are required to notify and give
legal evidence to the informant about the occurrence of an event. Vital statistics
information is compiled either using the registration forms or through a separate vital
statistics report format.

1.6. Demographic Data Items

Demographic data items are the variables that are identified to be investigated. The data items
that would be collected in censuses, surveys and registration systems vary depending on the
nature of the methods and the issue being measured. Censuses usually collect major data items
that give the size and characteristics of a population. Hence, the data items that would be
included in a census questionnaire could not be detailed. Accordingly, there are traditionally as
well as conventionally recommended items that would be included in the census. They are listed
below.
Geographic characteristics:
 Geographic identification of enumeration area
 Place where present at the time of census
 Place of usual residence
 Place of birth
 Duration of residence
 Place of previous residence
 Place of work
Personal characteristics
 Sex
 Age
 Relation to head of household
 Relation to head of family
 Marital status
 Age at marriage
 Marriage order
 Children ever born

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  Children dead
 Citizenship
 Literacy
 School attendance
 Educational qualification
 Highest grade completed
 National and/or ethnic group
 Language
 Religion
 Disability conditions
Economic characteristics
 Types of activity
 Occupational
 Industry
 Employment status
 Main source of livelihood
It is customary to conduct population censuses with housing censuses, and named as ‘Population
and Housing Census’. Hence, in addition to the personal and household information, a section on
housing conditions and facilities are included in census questionnaires. Following the above
trend, the three Ethiopian Population and Housing Censuses (1984, 1994 and 2007) were
conducted by combining the population and housing censuses in one.

1.7. Basic Demographic Measures

Statistical data are the raw materials of demography. They show how many people or events
were found at a certain date of period. This is an actual or absolute number. More often we wish
to measure these facts (how many people or events were found) in relation to another number.
To do this we make use of ratios and/or rates.

a. Ratio and Rate

The most basic measurement tools used to manipulate demographic data are rates, ratios,
proportions and percentages. Demographic analysis makes abundant use of rates and ratios.
Rates and ratios provide measurements of demography by which the behavior of one population
or sector of population can be compared with that of another.
A ratio is a single number that expresses the relative size of two numbers. The result of dividing
a number ‘x’ by another number ‘y’ is the ratio of x to y. That is
x
R . It measures the size of the first number in terms of the other. For example,
y
dividing the number of males by the number of females gives a comparison of female and male
population in a particular place.
Proportions are special types of ratio in which the denominator includes the numerator.

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 x
That is, it has the form P  . For example, the proportion of the population that is female
x y
is the number of females divided by the total number of males and females together. A
proportion can only range from 0 to 1.

Percentages are a special type of proportion, one in which the ratio is multiplied by a constant,
100, so that the ratio is expressed per 100.

Generally, ratios, proportions and percentages are useful for analyzing the composition of a set
of events or of a population. Ratios in contrast, are used to study the dynamics of change. A rate
refers to the occurrence of events over a given interval in time.

Vital events introduce some changes into the population. Such change must be measured be
relation to some time period. The frequency of vital events in a population is measured by a vital
statistics rate, which is often called a ‘vital rate’. The most common vital rates are birth and
death rates. The term rate must appropriately apply to the number of demographic events in a
given period of time divided by the population at risk during that period. We can define rate of
incidence in general terms as follows:

Number of events that occr within a given time int erval

Rate of incidence 
Number of members of the population who were exp osed to the risk of
the event during thesame time int erval
The numerator of a rate is number of events, such as, births or death, occurring during a specified
period of time. The denominator is the number of ‘person-year of exposure to risk’ experienced
by the population during the period under consideration. Specifying the number of persons
“exposed to risk” in the denominator is important. The concept of “person-years” is the ideal
way to specify the population exposed to the risk of event.

Person-years- is the sum, expressed in years, of the time spent in a given category by all the
individuals comprising the population. For example

Entry Date Exit Date Duration (days) Person-years

1.1.85 1.1.86 365 1.000
1.1.85 19.8.85 230 0.630
5.3.85 1.1.86 302 0.827
3.5.85 15.11.86 196 0.537
Total 2.994
Source: The dictionary of demography

In demography rates are most frequently calculated for periods of one year. This means that the
number of person-years of exposure to risk can usually be approximated by the population at

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mid-year. To understand this, consider the calculation of an annual death rate. Each person
surviving for the whole year will contribute one year to the total number of years of exposure to
the risk of death, while those dying during the year will contribute only a fraction of a year. This
fraction will be, on average, half a year if people die evenly throughout the year. The total
number of years of exposure to risk arrived at by adding these fractions to the total contributed
by those who survived is the same as taking the average population total during the year and
letting each person in that average contribute a whole year of exposure. And since the average
population can normally be approximated very closely by the population total at mid-year, the
mid-year population can, under most circumstance, be used for calculating annual rates (Newll,
1988).

B. The Basic Demographic Equation

The most basic method of demography is the decomposition of population change into its
components. The basic demographic equation expresses one of the most fundamental
relationships in formal demography. It can be written as:
Pt 1  Pt  B  D  IN  OUT
Where Pt+1- stands for the population size at time t+1
Pt- stands for the population size at time t
B- stands for the number of births between time t and t+1
D- stands for the number of deaths between time t and t+1
IN- stands for the number of in-migrants between time t and t+1
OUT- stands for the number of out-migrants between time t and t+1
In words, it means the population of an area at time t+1 is just the population at time t plus
the number of births between t and t+1, the number of deaths, plus the number of migrants
entering the area, less the number of leaving the area. The deference between the number of
births and deaths gives the ‘natural increase’, while the difference between the numbers of
migrants in and out gives the ‘net migration’. Thus the equation can be written as:

Population change = Natural increase + Net migration

In the above formula it is expected that the sum of the balance (population changes) and the
population at the beginning of the year would give as the population size at the end of the
year. However this relationship does not hold in most cases. The extent in which the figures
differ is known as the ‘Error of Closure’. Its magnitude is a sensitive indicator of the
consistency of the demographic data quality of data collection.

The equation can also be expressed in terms of rates by dividing each element by the mid-
year population (MYP). Then the rate of population change is just:

Pt 1  Pt B  D IN  OUT
 
MYP MYP MYP

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The difference between the birth and death rate is the rate of natural increase, and the
difference between the In and Out migration rate is the Net Migration rate. So the equation
again can also be written as

Growth Rate = Rate of Natural increase + Net Migration rate

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2. Sex Distribution and Age Structure of Human Population
2.1. Sex composition
2.1.1. Definition
Sex is the biological factor that classifies the human race into two categories - males and
females. Naturally, an individual’s sex is determined at birth and undergoes no change (except
through surgery). There is no statistical problem of ascertainment and the data are easy to obtain
because the dichotomy is clear. The sex distribution is an important variable for demographic,
economic and social analysis. Such distribution of the population is defined as an expression of
the number of males and females in a population either in absolute number or as percentages of
the total.

The male and female populations have different functions and roles in social, economic and
cultural areas. In the study of demography, the presentation of separate data for males and
females are important for comparisons, analysis of other types of data and for the evaluation of
the census data.

The separate population data for males and females are required in almost all types of planning,
both in public and private, as well as in economic and social services. For example, these data
are required for planning of community institutions and services, especially in health, education
and employment. It is also important for family planning, military planning, and industrial
planning such as market assessment, labor force type, type of users and type of product. A cross-
classification with sex is useful for the effective analysis of nearly all types of data obtained in
censuses and surveys. For comparative studies information on sex can be cross-classified with
age, education, economic activity and ethnicity.

2.1.2. Source and Quality of Data

Censuses, surveys and registrations are the main sources of information about males and
females. In all the operations of data collection, sex has nearly always been asked among those
subjects for whom information was secured. In the UN Demographic yearbook data, which is
prepared annually for males and females are presented for almost all countries of the world. Most
countries have also their own national statistical publications that provide data for males and
females.

In the census or in the vital registration, it has been found that reporting error as far as the sex of
individual is concerned the minimum compared to any other characteristics, because there is
little or no reason for a tendency for one sex to be reported at the expense of the other. Therefore,
developing countries misreporting of sex is negligible. In some parts of the world, misreporting
of sex may be serious due to various reasons. Some households report young bays as girls due to
cultural influence (to avoid the attention of evil sprite), some deliberately hide the sex of their

11
boys to avoid military service and others misreport some births and early infant deaths due to
various personal or cultural reasons.

Thus, before using the sex data one has to measure or evaluate the accuracy of sex data. There
are no ideal standards against which the accuracy of data can be measured. But it is possible to
check by using some techniques, which are similar to those techniques used to evaluate total
population coverage. Thus, these techniques include re-interview studies, external checks by
comparing with other records and various techniques of demographic techniques of demographic
analysis.

2.1.3. Measures of Sex Distribution

There are different measures of sex composition that can be used for comparisons over time and
between groups or between areas. These measures are useful to remove the effect of variations
in population size. The common measures are:
a. Masculinity or femininity proportion: It is a measure of sex composition that indicates the
proportion of males or females in the total population. Masculinity proportion (MP) is
defined as
P
MP  m  100 % (2.1)
Pt
Where, Pm represents the number of males and Pt the total population at time t. Let us
consider the population of Oromia Region on October 11, 1994 (census date). Table 2.1
shows the distribution of the population by sex and residence.
Table 2.1. Counted plus estimated population size
Residence Male Female Total Sex Ratio MP Excess/deficit
Urban 953,435 1,016,653 1,970,088 93.78 48.40 -3.20
Rural 8,417,793 8,344,644 16,762,437 100.88 50.20 0.44
Total 9,371,793 9,361,297 18,732,525 100.11 50.03 0.05
Source: (1994 census result for Oromia Region Vol.I, Part I)
From Table 2.1 the masculinity proportion for the total population is
P 9,371,228
MP  m  100%   100  50.03%
Pt 18,732,525
Note that fifty is the point of standard/balance according to masculinity proportion. Higher or
lower results indicate an excess or deficit of males. Hence, the above data shows that in urban
areas there is deficit of males (48.4%) while in rural areas there is slightly an excess of males
(50.2%).
b. Sex ratio: It is the common measure used for comparing the relative strength of the umber of
males and females in a population. It is normally expressed as the number of males per 100
females. That is,

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 Pm
SR   100 (2.2)
Pf
Where Pm represents the number of males in a population at time t and P f denotes the number
of females in the same population at time t. For example, from Table 2.1, the sex ratio of the
total population of the region is
P 9,371,228
SR  m  100   100  100.11
Pf 9,361,297
For this measure 100 is the point of balance of the sexes according to sex ratio measure. A
sex ratio over 100 indicates an excess of males and below 100 denotes an excess of females.
In general, the national sex ratios tend to fall in the range 95 to 102. If the national sex ratios
fall outside the range 90 to 105, they can be viewed as extreme.
c. Analysis of sex ratios in terms of population sub-groups: sometimes there is need to treat
separately the sex ratios of the important component sub-groups. These sub-groups include
residence, region, age, ethnicity, nationality, and marital status groups. From Table 2.1, you
may observe that there is a deficit of males in urban population (SR=93.8) and an excess of
males in the rural population (SR=100.9). The lower sex ratio in the urban population was
mainly occurred because of the grater migration of females to urban areas.
 Age wise sex ratio (AWSR): Sex ratio can be defined for sub-groups of populations.
Thus, age-wise sex ratio is defined among persons at each age. For the ith age group it is
given as:
Number of male births during a year
AWSR for i th age group   100 (2.3)
Number of female births during thesame year
If the age interval is greater than one year we replace Xi by nXi, where n is the width of the
interval. It has been observed that the age-wise sex ratio need not be identical at all ages. They
tend to be high (excess) at the very young ages and then tend to decrease (deficit) between ages
15-20, and then increase slightly between 20-35 years of age, and decrease with increasing of
ages.
 Sex ratio at births: the sex ratio at births defined as
Number of male births during a year
SR at births   100 (2.4)
Number of female births during the same year
That is, the number of male births per 100 female live births during a year. The ratio at birth
normally fluctuates around a constant value of 105 among most of the world’s population. That
is, it does vary somewhat between populations and sub-groups. Among the black people, it has
been observed that the value is found to be about 102. Note that if the sex ratio at birth is 105,
then of every 205 births, on average 100 are female. In other words, the proportion that is female
is obtained as: proportion of female=100/205 =0.488.
 Sex ratio of deaths: The sex ratio of deaths defined as
Number of maledeaths during a year
SR at deaths   100 (2.5)
Number of female deaths during the same year

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 This ratio does not have a constant value as it is affected by differential risk of mortality
among the sexes and for that reason it is a good measure to differentiate health conditions.
The age ratio of deaths is much more variable from country to country. Data for many
countries indicate sex ratios above 100. For example, high sex ratios of death (over 125)
occurred in recent years, Canada. Low ratios (100-105, United Arab Republic), and
intermediate ratios (105-125) occurred Mexico, India, etc. One may analyze the sex ratios of
death by age, ethnic group, residence status, martial status and region.
d. A change in excess or deficit of males
The analysis of a change in the sex composition of the population from one census to another
may be desirable. The various components of population change- births, deaths, immigrants
and emigrants – can be used for analyzing the change between two censuses in the excess or
deficit of males which may be developed from the separate equations representing the male
and female populations at a given census. Consider separate populations of males and
females at a given census time t and preceding time 0. Then, using the basic equation
representing male and female populations for each of the components we get
Pmt  Pm0  Bm  Dm  I m  E m
Pft  Pf0  B f  D f  I f  E f
Rearranging these equations would give
Pmt  Pm0  Bm  Dm  I m  Em increase in male population 
Pft  Pf0  B f  D f  I f  E f increase in female population 
Taking the difference between them, we have for the inter-censual change in the difference
between the number of males and females.
Pmt  Pft   Pm0  Pf0   Bm  B f   Dm  D f   I m  I f   E m  E f  (2.6)

2.2. Age Composition

2.2.1. Definition and Classification
Age of an individual is the interval of time from birth to time of ascertaining. The concept of age
differs among cultures and under different situations. In demography, age is the number of full
years (completed years) lived by an individual ignoring fractions of it and is called age ‘last
birthday’.

Though age is an easy concept to understand, when it comes to measurement, there are several
problems. It has been said that age could be in completed years, but the concept of a year differs
in different cultures. It connotes a solar year in Western approach and a lunar year (a few days
shorter than the solar year) to a Muslim. To the Orient (China, Korea, Hong Kong and
Singapore) it may be according to their traditional calendar. Therefore, information of ages one
of the most difficult of personal characteristics that have to be ascertained by direct inquiries.

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Therefore, the age of an individual in censuses and surveys is commonly defined in terms of the
age of the person at his last birth day. Even though, there are varied ways of measuring and
defining age in various countries, however, the UN has recommended the following definition
for the measurement of age. Age is “the estimated or calculated interval of time between the date
of birth and the date of the census or survey, expressed in completed solar year”.

Very few people in developing societies celebrate birth days and little importance is put for the
event, because of this an approximate age is estimated on the basis of birth before or after certain
major events. Events like seniority, seasons, floods of rivers, national events, age of marriage,
number of harvests, etc serves the purpose.

Classification
Age data is commonly presented in single years or by grouping adjacent age as 5 years or
broader age groups which cloud be of equal or unequal classes. Single year age distributions are
required if the need arise to see the details of the data. When the number of persons against each
age interval is expressed either in absolute numbers or as percentage, the distribution is known as
the age composition of the population.

For most analytical purposes 5-year age intervals such as under 1, 1-4, 5-9, …, 80-84, 85+ are
adequate for most cross-classifications. It is used for the analysis of population distribution,
mortality, fertility, ethnic groups, and socio-economic status. Broader age groups may be
employed though they would lead to loss of information and would mask subtle variations. Thus,
age intervals under 1, 1-4, 5-9, 10-19, 20-29, … would be meaningful to study mortality while
age intervals such as 0-14, 15-64, and 65+ would be adequate for the analysis of economic
activities and causes of social problems. Similarly, for the study of migration age intervals as 0-
19, 20-44, and 45+ would be adequate.

Although the age structure by single age is a good instrument for minimizing loss of information,
it makes analysis awkward because of large number of groups. However, it is used mostly to
measure some characteristics that change rapidly such as school enrollment, marital status and
labor status.

2.2.2. Uses and Sources of Age Data

Age is one the most important personal characteristics which is collected in demographic inquire.
Demographic phenomenon, socio-economic and other characteristics are highly correlated with
age. Specifically there are various types of uses of age data, of which the following are the
important ones.
 At individual level, many of the personal characteristics and particular talents change
with age. For example, reproductive and physical ability, employment circumstance, and
mental outlook develop with increasing of age.

15
  Age is an important variable in measuring potential population like school age
population, the potential voting population, and potential manpower.
 Age data are required for preparing current population estimates and projections such as
projections of households, school enrollment, labor force, and projection of requirements
for schools, teachers, health services, food, and housing.
 Another important area of uses of age data is its cross-classifications with other
demographic characteristics. It is the most important variable particularly in the study of
population distribution, mortality, fertility, marriages and migration.
 In the study of economic problems, it is useful especially in the analysis of labor supply,
economic dependency, and retirement.
 Age could play a very useful role in the evaluation of the quality of the data from the
census.
The sources of age data are similar to that of the sources of sex data. In vital statistics registration
system – the system records age data in the four principal types of vital events, that is, birth,
death, marriage and divorce. In birth record date of birth is collected while in the remaining three
records age in completed years is recorded. In countries where the registration system exists,
since date of birth is recorded during the registration of birth event, there will not be a problem in
calculating age during the recording of marriages, divorces and death events.

Sources of Age Data

 In censuses and surveys - in those countries that have a complete vital statistics registration
system, the collection of age of individuals during census and survey data collection
operation would not be a problem. However, countries with no or deficient vital registration
system, the collection of quality data on age depends on the individual’s ability in recalling
his/her date or year or birth. In such instances, it is a common practice to get a very rough
estimate of age.

2.2.3. Evaluation and Adjustment of Age Data

Sources of Errors in Age Data

In both census and vital registration, errors in age data mostly occur due to various reasons.
Ignorance or indifference as to when a person was born, in ability to calculate one’s age,
misunderstanding of the concept and deliberate misreporting are some of the important causes
for the error. Basically errors in the reporting of age may be errors of coverage, or content or a
combination of both.
 Coverage errors- some individuals may not be counted or may be counted twice.
 Failure to record age- due to the failure on the part of the data collector or respondent
 Misreporting of age –occurs due to preference of some digits at the expense of
others. It can take two possible forms; ‘heaping’ or ‘shifting’.

16
[Link]. Measurement of Age Error (Single Year of Age)

Single year of age- There are a number of methods used to measure the extent of age error in a
census or survey data among the commonly encountered age errors are age heaping, age or digit
preference, that occurs in situations where too many people prefer to report ages ending with
zero and 5 while relatively few give ages ending 9, 1, 4, or 6. On the other hand age shifting is a
more serious problem than age heaping, largely because it is hard to detect and adjust for. The
reason for the prevalence of age shifting that are commonly found or stated in various literatures
include due to:
 older people intending to exaggerate their ages (to show prestige)
 young men understating or overstating their age to avoid military service, etc
 young mothers tending to exaggerate their age, while older, unmarried women
understating.

Sometimes legal rights and privileges or other social factors may exert pressure and influence
individuals to prefer certain numbers. Thus single year of age data are affected by several factors
like legal working age, retirement age, low educational status, minimum voting age, school entry
age, cut off point for fertility and marital status.

There are various techniques developed to measure the extent of age misreporting, specifically
age heaping and age shifting. We will consider here the most commonly used techniques. The
most commonly used measures of age heaping (digit preference) are Index of Age Preference,
Whipple’s index and Mayer’s Blended Method. And the commonly used measures of age shifting
are Age Ratio Analysis and UN Age-Sex Accuracy Index.

i. Index of Age Preference: These indices depend on assumptions regarding the true distribution
of the population by age. Among those indices, the simplest, assumes that the true figures are
rectangularly distributed over some age ranges (such as a 3 years, 5 years, or 11years age range).
The age being examined is included and centered in the age range. For example consider the
1994 census of the Amahara Region having the following population for specified ages. That is,
P28=255,408; P29=56,803; P30=478,111; P31=47,540; P32=131, 684. An index of age heaping
on age 30 for a three year range is given as
P30
I ap   100  246.26 per 100. (2.7)
1 / 3P29  P30  P31 
Alternatively, for a 5-year age range it is given as
P30
I ap   100  246.56 per 100. (2.8)
1 / 5 P28  P29  P30  P31  P32 
Both indices are approximately equal and indicate highly considerable heaping on age 30.
Normally an index 100 indicates no concentration on the age examined. The interpretation is that
the higher the index the greater the concentration on the age examined.

17
ii. Whipple’s Index (US Bureau of the Census, 1971): detects a preference for ages ending in 0,
5 or both. The concept is to take an age interval starting with ages ending in digits other than 0 or
5. Though the choice is arbitrary, the range of age 23 to 62 is used. Whipple’s Index is measured
by comparing the sum of the population at the ages ending in ‘0’ in the range 23 to 62 years of
age with one-tenth of the total population in the range. The formula is given as:
P  P40  P50  P60
WI  30  100 (2.9)
1
P23  P24  ...  P62 
10
Similarly, heaping on terminal digits ‘0’ and ‘5’ combined in the range 23 to 62 is given as
P  P30  P35  P40  P45  P50  P55  P60
WI  25  100 (2.10)
1
P23  P24  ...  P62 
5
If age data is accurately reported and recorded then the value of Whipple’s Index is expected to
be 100. The UN has presented the rating of the quality of age data for different values of
Whipple’s Index as shown below in the table.

Quality Whipple’s Index

Highly accurate 100-104.9
Fairly accurate 104-109.9
Approximate 110-124.9
Rough 125-174.9
Very rough Over 175
Consider the following population data from 1994 census of Amhara Region for the specified
ages. The sum of the population in the age range 23 to 62 for ages ending in 0 is 1,430,427. The
sum of the population in the age range 23 to 62 for age ending in 5 is 1,169,327. The sum of the
population of the age interval 23 to 62 is 4,845,910.
1,430,427
Heaping on digit 0: WI=  100  295.18
1
4,845,910
10
1,169,327
Heaping on digit 5: WI =  100  241.30
4,845,91
2,599,754
Heaping on digits 0 and 5: WI =  100  268.24
1
4,845,910 
5
These figures indicate very high age preference for 0 or 5 or both. According to the quality rating
classification, the data for Amhara Region is extremely rough. Generally, heaping on these
digits, when measured by WI varies from 100 to 500. The index 100 represents a uniform
distribution over all digits (0 to 9), i.e. no age heaping or no preference for 0 and 5, and 500
represents the extreme case of digit preference, i.e. the entire population is recorded at ages
ending in 0 and 5.
18
iii. Myers’ Blended Method: Populations age ending in 0 would normally be larger than those in
digits 1, 2, …, 9 because of the effect of mortality. Myers’ index is introduced to take care of this
problem. Myers’ Blended Index-is usually used to measure degree of preference for each digit
and it provides summary index for all terminal digits. The theoretical value of Myers’ summary
index ranges between 0 and 90, where a value of 0 represents no age heaping while the value 90
represents all ages where reported as numbers ending in the same digit.
Steps in calculating Myers’ Blended Index:
Step 1. Sum the population of age ending in each digit over the whole range, starting with the
lower limit of the range (10-89).
Digit ending Population with age Sum

0 P10 P20 … P80 A0

1 P11 P21 … P81 A1
2 . .
. . .
. . .
.
9 P19 P29 … P89 A9
Step 2. Ascertain the sum excluding the first population combined in step 1.
B0 = A0 -P10 = P20+P30 +…+ P80
B1 = A1-P11 = P21+ P31+ …+ P81
.
B9 = A9-P19 = P29+P39+…+P89
Step 3. Weight the sums in steps 1 and 2 and add the results to obtain a blended population.
Obtain a Blended population (Pj), j= 0, 1… 9, by adding the population sum in step 1&2.
C j   j  1 A j  10  j  1B j

C 0  1A0  9 B0
(2.11)
C1  2 A1  8 B1
.
C 9  10 A9  0 B9
Step4. Convert the distribution in step 3 into percents.

19
 C0
p0   100%
C
C
p1  1  100%
C
.
C9
p9   100%
C
where C  C 0  C1  ...  C 9
Step 5. Take the deviation of each percent in step 4 from 10, the expected value for each percent.
e0  p0  10
e1  p1  10
.
e9  p9  10
The results in step 5 indicate the extent of concentration on or avoidance of a particular digit. A
summary index of preference for all terminal digits derived as one-half the sum of the deviations
from 10 percent, each taken without regard to sign. If age heaping were nonexistent, the index
would approximate zero. This index is an estimate of the minimum proportion of persons in the
population for whom an age with incorrect final digit is reported.

[Link]. Measurement of Age Error (Age Group Data)

Age Group Data: When data are presented in 5-year or other age groupings, certain errors are
noticed for several reasons. In addition to the indicated sources of errors, the levels of mortality,
fertility and migration affect an age distribution in different ways and to different extents.
Making of age groupings may introduce some additional cumulative effect of errors, which is
difficult to measure. The existence of errors in grouped data can be measured by matching
methods and demographic methods.
Matching Methods- include post enumeration survey; re-interview surveys, comparison with
existing household surveys, record checks, etc.
Demographic Methods- include procedures as inter-censual cohort analysis, age ratio analysis,
sex ratio analysis, age-sex accuracy index, smoothing the age distribution, comparison with
population models and comparison with administrative data.
Age Ratio (AR)- is the most commonly used index for detecting possible age misreporting in
populations. Theoretically, age ratios are expected to be similar throughout the age distribution
and all of them should be close to a value 100. For a 5-year age group it is defined as
5 PX
AR   100 (2.12)
1
 5 Px 5  5 Px  5 Px 5 
3
Where 5Px is the population at ages x to x+4, 5Px-5 is the population at ages x-5 to x-1 and 5Px+5 is
the population at ages x+5 to x+9.

20
In practice empirical results of many countries reveal that age ratios deviate from 100, which
indicate the greater probability of errors.

Age-Accuracy Index (AAI)- is an over all measure of the accuracy of age distribution. It is
obtained by taking the average absolute deviations, ignoring the sign, from 100 of the age ratios
overall age groups. That is
n
AAI  MDm  MDf , where MDm or MDf =  ARi  100 / n (2.13)
i

where n represents the number of age groups. The lower AAI the better is the quality of data on
age.
Age-Sex Accuracy Index (UNs’Index)- uses to summarize the values of the age ratios and sex
ratios and consists of three components.
- Average sex ratios score (SRS)-is the mean difference between sex ratios for the
successive age groups, averaged irrespective of sign.
- Average male/ female age ratio score (MARS/FARS)-is the mean deviation of the age
ratios from 100 percent (for males/females), irrespective of sign. Then,
UNindex=3SRS+MARS+FARS (2.14)
The index is found to be useful to compare populations for errors in age reporting. It is suggested
that the age and sex structure of a population will be considered as accurate if an index is fewer
than 20, inaccurate if an index is between 20 and 40, and highly inaccurate if the index is over
40. For instance, the UN index for Ethiopian (1984) was 66.5, which indicated that the age-sex
data are in the category of highly inaccurate.
The index is useful manly in international or historical comparative analysis. Historical series of
indices indicate whether the quality of the population age and sex reporting is improving or
deteriorating. There is no theoretical minimum or maximum value for the index.

2.2.4. Analysis of Age Composition

In the study of age composition there are different age classifications for different objectives
with various measures, which may use numerical and graphical analysis.
a. Population Pyramids-are an elegant and useful way of graphically presenting an age-sex
distribution. A pyramid essentially comprises two ordinarily histograms placed on either
sides of a vertical axis. There are certain conventions and special features, which should be
noted in drawing pyramids. Pyramids are always drawn showing the male population on the
left-hand side and the female population on the right. The young are always at the bottom
and the old at the top. It is conventional to use either single-year or 5-year age groups or
other combinations.
 the last, open-ended age group is normally omitted entirely from the pyramid,
because it is impossible to draw truthfully.
 The bottom scale can be graduated as either absolute numbers or percentages. The
shape of the pyramid is not affected at all by this. The total population of both sexes

21
 combined should be used to as a base to calculate percentages, including population
in the terminal age group.
 The choice of scales affects greatly the final shape of the pyramid. For example,
stretching the age scale and squashing the horizontal one will provide a tall, thin
pyramid.
Normally, two pyramids should be drawn, one showing single years of age and the other five-
year age groups, because they tend to reveal different factors of the age and sex structure.
Overall, an age distribution is best regarded as being determined primarily by fertility, and
modified to a greater or lesser extent by mortality and migration.
Population pyramid 85+

80 84
. .
55 59
50 54
45 49
Male 40 44 Female
35 39
30 34
25 29
20 24
15 19
10 15
5 9
0 4
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Population number (million/ 000)
Age pyramid could be used to ascertain the quality of age data. Generally, variations in birth
rates decide the shape of the base of the curve while the changes in death rates affect more or
less uniformly the shape for the entire range. Migration being age-selective usually affects the
early adulthood ages (20-39). Hence a pyramid need not be a perfectly smooth curve although
the slope would be more or less even. Age pyramid is truncated at an age group 70-74 or 75-79
or 80-84 years.
b. Percentage distribution- is a simple way of presenting population aggregate relative to one
another. It is obtained by
5 Px P
 100, for 5 age groups and i  100 , for a given area, where Pi represents
P P
the population of urban or rural or various regions.
c. Age Dependency Ratio (ADR)- is an index used to summarize an age distribution. Strictly,
it is the ratio of economically inactive to economically active persons in a population.

22
 children  elderly P  P65
ADR   100  014  100 (2.15)
working ages P1564
It is a very useful tool to study the economic advantages of the age structure. Similarly, a
separate child-dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio can be given as:
P P
child DR  014  100 and old  age DR  65  100
P1564 P15 64
The over all, young and old dependency ratios were reported in 1994 census as 94.6, 88.4
and 6.2, respectively. Hence the over all age dependency ratio is indicating that for each 100
persons in the productive age groups there are about 95 (young and old) dependents to be
supported.
d. Aging of populations- population is said to be young or old depending on the value of
certain measures such as median age and proportion of population of certain age groups.
The median age –is used as a basis for describing a population as young or old. The median
age for grouped data can be obtained by
 N / 2   fx 
MD  l md   w (2.16)
 f 
 md 
An examination of the medians for a wide variety of countries around 1960 suggests a
current range from 16 years to 36 years. Generally, populations with medians under 20 may
be considered as young, those with medians 30 and above as old.
Proportion- in the same way, proportion of children under 15 and proportion of elderly
persons 65 years and over are used to indicate whether the population is young or old.
P
proportion of children is , Pch  014  100 , P=total population (2.17)
P
If proportion of children is less than 30%, the population is considered as old, for those with
40% and over the population is considered as young and for thus between 30 and 40% the
population is considered as intermediate.
P
Pelderly  65  100 (2.18)
P
If Pelderly  10% , the population is said to be old, for Pelderly  5% the population is said to be
young and for the Pelderly between 5 and 10% the population is intermediate.

23
3. Mortality and Life Table
Mortality studies are important to know the socio-economic and demographic implications of
death, which is vital in the life of an individual, family, community and the nation at large.
Mortality determines the population size and influences the age structure of the population. The
death risks are greater at the two extreme phases of life (i.e., early and advanced ages).

3.1. Concepts and Measurement of Death Statistics

Death is one of the principal vital events that occur in human beings once in their lifetime. Death
statistics is an important input in the study and analysis of demographic processes and public
health administration. The application of death statistics or mortality analysis goes beyond
demographic and health subject area, where actuarial demands of insurance companies during
the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries have contributed for its development. Death statistics in
general could be said as the founding field of study for vital statistics information system.

Definition of Death and Related Events

In order to have a comprehensive understanding of the statistical definition of death it is
important to give the definition of its complements, that is, live birth and fetal death.

The United State and World Health Organization have proposed the following definition of
death: “Death is the permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any time after birth has
taken place”. Hence, death can only occur after a live birth has occurred. Then when do we say a
live birth has occurred? According to the UN recommendation a live birth is defined as “the
complete expulsion or extraction from its mother of a product of conception irrespective of the
duration of pregnancy, which after such separation, breathes or shows any other evidence of life
such as beating of the health, pulsation of the umbilical cord, or definite movement of voluntary
muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has been cut or the placenta attached.” The definition
of a live birth excludes the incidences of a birth of dead fetus. Such deaths prior to live birth are
known as fetal death. A fetal death is defined as “death (disappearance of life) prior to the
complete expulsion from its mother of a product of conception irrespective of the duration of
pregnancy; the death is indicated by the fact that after such separation the fetus does not breath
or show any other evidence of life; such as beating of the heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord,
or definite movement of voluntary muscles”. It includes stillbirths, miscarriages and abortions.

Data requirements for mortality statistics

Principally two types of data are required to measure levels and patterns of mortality in any part
of the world whether developed or developing country. The first is the number of deaths that
should be obtained from VSRS, while the second type is the size of the population exposed to the
risk of death at a particular time period that should be obtained through censuses or surveys or
population estimates. The data collection methods used to secure mortality data are the
traditional developed and conventionally recommended data source on the measurement of
mortality. However, due to lack of registration system, specifically in the developing world, the

24
 data on death events are usually obtained through provisional or alternative methods for the
measurement of vital events, that is, from censuses and sample surveys. The available death
statistics data sources in the two categories of the world could be summarized as shown in Table
4.1.

Table 4.1. Available Data Sources for Death Statistics

Time/period Developed countries Developing countries

During census Numerator annual Denominator census Numerator Denominator

year death from vital census census
statistics registration
system

Inter-census or annual death from vital Population estimates or National sample National sample
post-census period statistics registration less commonly from surveys/projected surveys/projected
system population register estimates estimates

3.2. Basic Mortality Measures

There are various measures of mortality based on death statistics. However, each one of them
differs mainly in their degree of refinement or whether they are summary measures or specific
measures. The measures of mortality are treated with respect to observed rates, which are
computed directly from actual data or adjusted rates, which are hypothetical representation of the
level of mortality for a given population, involving the use of various assumptions.

3.2.1. Crude Death Rate (CDR)

One of the simplest and most commonly used summary measures of mortality is crude death
rate. It is defined as the number of deaths in a year per 1,000 of the mid-year population. That is
D
CDR   1,000 (3.1)
P
Where D is the number of deaths in the calendar year,
P is the mid-year population, which is an approximation to the average population
exposed to the risk of death during the year.
As indicated above, in countries that do not have VSRS it would be difficult to make direct
calculation of CDR. The CDR is a crude measure because it does not take into account the
effects of variations in age structure as well as variations among different population groups,
and hence it is generally considered as a poor measure of mortality. In other words, different
sub-groups in population are exposed to different risks of dying because of their occupation
or their age or some other characteristics. Because of these differentials in exposure to the
risk of dying, specific death rates are often used.

25
3.2.2. Specific Death Rates
Specific death rates used to specific categories of deaths of population. These categories may be
subdivisions of the population or death according to age, sex, occupation, educational level,
causes of death, etc. Therefore, specific death rates are calculated in relation to particular group
of population, for instance, commonly used are age and sex.

Age-Sex Specific Death Rate (ASSDR) is defined as the number of deaths of males or females,
in a particular age group per 1,000 male or female populations in the age group. It is calculated
as:
Dm Daf
ASSDR  am  1,000 or  1,000 (3.2)
Pa Paf
where Dam is the number of male deaths in age group a.
Daf is the number of female deaths in the age group a.
Pam is the mid-year population of males in age group a.
Paf is the mid-year population of females in age group a.
 A Comparison of male and female death rate by age, excess of the male rates over female
rates for a few countries. i.e., sex differentials in mortality. Most tabulation of deaths
require cross tabulation with age.
 ASSDRs may vary from country to country in a quite different degree from the
corresponding crude death rate.

3.2.3. Graphical Presentation of Age Specific Death Rates (ASDRs)

Presenting ASSDRs usng graph allows observing patterns of mortality and hence enables
comparisons among different mortality schedules. The general pattern of mortality, which is
described by graphing ASSDRs for any population follows roughly similar pattern where it starts
at a high level in infancy, drops to low levels during childhood and early adulthood, and then
rises gradually into old age.

26
Age is important variable in the analysis of mortality. Mortality is high in infant region.
Even though specific death rates for age are refined measures of mortality, however, they are
difficult to make comparisons because they are not single figure indices. Hence, it is necessary to
have a method that summarizes the specific rates, where such problems could be overcome by
the method of standardization.

3.2.4. Standardization Methods

Standardization is a general statistical method used in many areas other than mortality analysis.
As we have seen above, the age and sex composition of the population have a pronounced effect
on the crude death rate. Other aspects of population composition may also have such effects.
Examples of other variables that influence death rates are:
a. Urban or rural residence (perhaps because of unequal health care facilities, living
styles/standards, infrastructures)
b. Different occupational compositions (miners are more subject to risk than judges or most
professional workers)
c. Different income compositions (the wealthy can afford better medical care)
d. Marital status (the married usually have lower mortality than the single, widowed or
divorced)

The procedure of adjustment of the crude rates to eliminate from them the effect of differences in
population composition with respect to age and other variables is called standardization. The
purpose of standardization is, therefore, to allow a more precise composition of crude rates by
eliminating the effect of differences in age composition and other variables.

The age composition of a population, in particular, is a key factor affecting the level of the crude
death rate. For purpose of composition of death rates over time or from area to area, it is
important to eliminate the effect of the difference in age structure of two populations being
compared. There are types of standardization, known as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ standardization.

Direct standardization involves taking a standard population and applying to it the specific
rates for the population being compared. Applying to mortality data, the formula for direct
standardization is given as:

m1 
 ma Pa  1000 (3.3)
P
d
Where ma  a is age-specific death rate in the given area,
Pa
Pa represents the standard population at each age, and
P represents the total standard population.
Direct standardization serves to provide the best basis for determining the relative difference
between mortality in two areas or at two dates. The steps in the direct standardization procedure
are the following:

27
  Select a population in which we have the frequencies in age group (if possible by 5-
year age group) that can be used as a standard population.
 The age specific death rate (ASDR) of the population under consideration should be
given.
 Calculate the expected deaths by multiplying the ASDR with the number of people in
the corresponding age group of the standard population.
 Find the total number of the expected deaths.
 Compute standardized death rate as:
total exp ected deaths
 1000
total s tan dard population
The age standardized death rates for the standard population is the same as its own death rate,
since the specific death rates for the standard population would be weighted by its own
population. Although standardized crude death rate or age adjusted death rates may reveal
whether the mortality level of one area is higher or lower than that of another area, the procedure
has certain limitations. The use of different standard may change the relative values of the
standardized rate. As a general rule it is recommended to select as standard an age distribution
that is similar to the age distributions of the various populations under study.

We can standardize the death rate for both age and sex jointly. In doing this, each age-sex
specific death rate is multiplied by the proportion of the total standard population in that
age-sex group.
An example is given in table 3.2 to demonstrate the procedures of direct standardization.
Table 3.2. Calculation of age-standardized death rates by direct method.
Age group Standard popn. ASDR ma(,000)
Pa(,000) Country A Country B
<1 44 47.48 48.12
1-4 168 9.09 3.76
5-9 203 2.4 1.2
10-14 251 1.83 0.93
15-19 245 2.78 1.55
20-24 762 3.83 2.17
25-29 304 4.25 2.38
30-34 400 4.86 2.74
35-39 476 5.79 3.39
40-44 488 7.23 4.53
45-49 435 9.43 6.47
50-54 421 13.22 9.56
55-59 399 16.69 14.33
60-64 387 28.03 22.09
65-69 359 42.02 34.56
70-74 301 65.3 55.43
75-79 256 101.71 88.85
80+ 145 207.98 185.55

28
 P   Pa 6044
Expected 135792.5 110750.6
deaths=  MaPa
12.7 22.46733 18.32406
m1 
a m Pa
 ASDR
P

Crude death rates 12.7 10.4 7.64

From the above calculations, we can conclude that age-standardized death rate for country A is
higher than country B, which implies that mortality is higher in country A than B. However, it
cannot be concluded that mortality is twice as high in country A as in the standard population.
The standardized death rates permit only the measurement of levels of mortality in different
areas. It is, therefore, recommended to consider the percent difference of the adjusted and crude
rates of each country relative to the standard.

Indirect Standardization- applies the actual age structure of each of the population to be
compared with an arbitrary set of age-specific rates to estimate an expected number of events,
which is compared with the observed number to provide a standard index for each population. In
other words when we lack the age-specific death rates of the area under study but a count or an
estimate of the total number of deaths, an estimate of crude death rates and if the age distribution
of the population is available, it is possible to adjust the death rates by indirect method. Appling
to the mortality data, the formula for indirect standardization is given as:
 d 
m2   M (3.4)
 m P 
 a a 

Where, for the “standard” population, ma represents age-specific death rates and M represents
the CDR; and for the population under study, d represents the total number of deaths and Pa
represents the population at each age.
The steps in calculating the age adjusted death rate (AADR) by indirect method are:
1. Obtain the ASDRs for the standard
2. Set down the population by age for the area under the study
3. Compute the cumulative product of the death rates in step 1 and the population in step 2
4. Divide the result in step 3 into the total number of deaths registered in the study area
5. Multiply the result in step 4 by the CDR of the standard population to derive the adjusted
death rates.

29
Table 3.3. Calculation of age-standardized death rates by indirect method.
Age ASDR for standard Population in
popn. (ma) (,000), Pa
<1 27 228
1-4 1.1 876
5-9 0.5 981
10-14 0.4 836
15-19 0.9 725
20-24 1.2 598
25-29 1.3 527
30-34 1.6 507
35-39 2.3 415
40-44 3.7 364
45-49 5.9 324
50-54 9.4 279
55-59 13.8 212
60-64 21.5 183
65-69 31.4 128
70-74 47.2 84
75-79 72 52
80-84 117.2 31
85+ 198.6 22
all ages=M 9.5 7,374
44,237
Expected deaths= MaPa
Registered deaths=d 171,1982 95, 486
Crude death rates
Re gisted .deaths d 2.1585

Expected .deaths  ma Pa
Age adjusted death rate 20.5

Rate Adjusted to a Probability Basis

The observed rates considered so far are measures of central rates. Although they give a
satisfactory indication of the relative frequency of the event of death they do not describe
precisely the risk of dying for any actual cohort, i.e., they are not true probabilities. Such
probabilities express the chance that death will occur during a particular period to a person in a
particular population group alive at the beginning of the period. Probability measures are usually
expressed in terms of rate or ratio, where the denominator represents the initial population
exposed to risk of death while the numerator represents the frequency with which the event of
death occurs in the particular population over the period. The most commonly computed
probabilities of death are specific by age and relate to a one-year period. Such probabilities are
referred to as “mortality rates” to distinguish them from the “death rates” which were previously
described.

30
3.2.5. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
There are several possibilities for estimating infant mortality rates depending on the availability
and quality of information on births and deaths. Conventionally, infant mortality rate is defined
as the number of death of infants less than one year of age to the number of live births occurring
that year, times 1,000. That is,
Deaths under age one inayear
IMR   1,000 (3.5)
Live births durring the same year
This is a good approximation of the infant mortality rate based on a given year’s vital registration
data. In reality the infant deaths during a year could be from two calendar years – one from the
births of the same year and the other from those of the previous year. This indicates that the
denominator is not the population at risk of the events in the numerator. Other techniques are
available to calculate adjusted infant mortality rates, and they are not discussed here.

Neonatal Mortality Rates (NMRs)

The need to calculate neonatal mortality rates is well recognized due to the unevenness of the
occurrence of deaths in the first year of life, which necessitated making further subdivision into
various infant ages. The three commonly used measures of neonatal mortality are important in
the follow up of various health intervention programs mainly, mother and child health service
deliveries. The three measures are:
Deaths under age1 week
Early Neonatal Mortality Rate =  1,000
Live births in year
Deaths age1  4 weeks
Late Neonatal MR =  1,000 (3.6)
Live births in year
Deaths age 4  52 weeks
Post-Neonatal MR =  1,000
Live births in year
One of the incidences of death that occur before the complete extraction of a fetus from the
mother’s womb is named as foetal death (it is also called stillbirth). The popularly used and
highly required for statistical information for various health intervention programs is the late
foetal death rate. According to the world health organization, a late foetal death occurs after the
twenty-eight week of gestation. The formula is given as:
Late foetal deaths
Late foetal death rate =  1,000 (3.7)
Late foetal deaths  Live births in a year
In order to minimize the measurement errors that occur during registration of births or infant
death, a rate that merges stillbirth and deaths in the first week of life, this is known as perinatal
mortality rate was developed. It is calculated using the formula:
Stillbirths  Deaths under 1 week
Perinatal MR =  1,000 (3.8)
Stillbirths  Live births in a year

31
3.3. Life Tables
It is derived from a statistical model that measures mortality. It is an important mathematical tool
in demographic analysis. It is essentially designed to measure mortality but it is employed
variety specialists in a variety of ways. It is used to public health workers, demographers,
actuarians and others.

A life table is a tool that is used to analyze and present, in a convenient way, the mortality
experience of a population under consideration. Principally, the life table is used to measure
levels of mortality, but it has many applications other than demography, such as, in health and
actuarial studies. The first life table was developed by Halley that was published in 1693. It was
constructed from statistics of deaths alone and was not regarded as a correct life table. Later on,
in 1815 Milne has been developed the first scientifically correct life table based on population
and death data classified by age.

3.3.1. Types of Life Tables

Different types of life tables could be constructed where the main differentiating characteristics
are categorized into three. They are:
a. reference year of life table
b. the age detail and
c. number of factors considered by the life table.
Consider the first two conditions, and with regard to the reference year, two types of life tables
can be constructed; they are called current or period life table and generation (cohort) life table.
The current life table is constructed based on current mortality rates, which refers to a short
period of time, usually a year and it is the most commonly used one. The second type of life
table, which is known as the generation life table, is constructed based on the mortality rates
experienced by a particular birth cohort, e.i., all persons born at some particular time.
Generation life table follows the mortality rates of the persons born at same particular time until
all of them die. In practice constructing generation life table is very difficult and hence
uncommon to use them for various purposes, except in specific areas such as, mortality
projection and trend analysis.

Complete and Abridged Life Tables

Following the second differentiating characteristic of life tables, that is length of the age interval;
two types of life tables could be identified. When the life table is prepared for each single year of
age the life table is referred as complete or unabridged life table; while in the case of using age
intervals of 5 or 10 the life table is called abridged life table. The abridged life table is the most
commonly used type.

32
3.3.2. Calculation (Construction) of Various Life Table Functions
The life table is composed of values of various functions persons of each age or age group. In
constructing life tables required basic raw data inputs are the age specific death rates in the
particular population. Life table comprises a set of columns that reveals the level of mortality of
the population, where most of which can be calculated from any of the others.

Basic assumptions used in the construction of a life tables are:

a. The cohort is ‘closed’ against in or out migration. Hence, there are no changes in
membership except the losses due to death.
b. People die at each age according to a schedule that is fixed in advance and does not
change.
c. The cohort originates from some standard number of births (always set at around figures
like 1,000, or 10,000 or 100,000) called the ‘radix’ of the life table.
d. At each age (excepting the first and last few years of life), deaths are evenly distributed
between one birthday and the next.
e. The cohort normally contains members of only one sex.

In constructing a complete life table, the first column that needs to be calculated is q x . It gives
the probability of dying between exact ages x and x+1. It is denoted as:
Deaths during year of persons aged x at start of year
qx 
population aged x at start of year
Note that the denominator is the number of persons alive at the beginning of the year. q x s connot
generally be calculated directly because the death rates that are used in the calculation of q x
values use mid-year population estimates rather than the population at the start of the year.
Hence, the first and fundamental step in life table construction is one of converting observed age
specific death rates into their corresponding mortality rates, or probabilities of dying. The
conventional formula for calculating observed age specific death rates which is denoted by M x
is given as:
Dx
Mx   D x  M x Px
Px
Where D x is the number of deaths in the year of persons aged x and Px is the population age x,
obtained considering the mid-year population. In contrast, probabilities of dying are calculated
using:
D
q x  x  Dx  q x N x
Nx
Where Nx is the population aged x at the beginning of the year.

33
The difference between M x and q x lies with the denominator in that Nx refers to the population
aged x at the start of the year whereas Px refers to the mid-year population. As started earlier, it
is assumed that deaths are evenly distributed throughout the year. Accordingly, out of Dx deaths
during of the year half of them (0.5Dx) would survive upto the middle of the calendar year for
most ages. Therefore, Nx is equal to Px plus those dying between the standard and middle of the
year. From this relationship we can derive the basic formula for transforming observed ASDRs
into probability measures in a complete life table as:
2M x
qx 
2 Mx
As stated above, if we construct a relationship between Nx and Px by assuming that deaths will
occur evenly throughout the years, then N x  Px  0.5D x
Putting Dx on both sides we get:
Dx Dx D x / Px Mx
  qx  
N x P x 0.5D x ( Px  0.5 D x ) / Px 1  0.5M x
But for the very young age groups the assumptions of evenly distribution of deaths do not hold
specifically in areas with high mortality levels. Hence, it is believed that the infants will, on
average live less than half a year because their deaths will tend to be concentrated in the early
part of the yer. This fraction of a year lived is usually denoted by a x . Thus the general equation
of the transformation of M x into q x is given by
Mx
qx 
1  (1  a x ) M x
“The values that a0, a1, …, take values vary from country to country and according to the level of
mortality. For developing countries, where mortality is high, values of 0.3 for a0, 0.4 for a1 and
0.5 for all the others are normally used. Where mortality is low, 0.1 is a better figure for a0”
(Newell,1988). The values for ax will not be calculated from other life table columns but is either
calculated from raw data, or, more frequently, they are assumed.

3.3.2. Construction of Life Table Functions in Abridged Life Table

The way an abridged life table constructed is very similar to that for complete life table, but
instead of calculating q x one calculates n q x where n is the length of the interval. The equation is
presented as:
n nM x
n qx 
1  n1 n a x n M x
Where n a x is taken to be the proportion of the interval lived by those who die. Thus, for most age
groups a value of n a x  0.5 is adequate, but for the very young it is necessary to use other values.

34
The convention is to assume a0  0.1 in low mortality countries and 0.3 in high- mortality
countries, while 0.4 is used for all 4 a1 s .

We have seen how to calculate n q x values from repeated ASDRs, which enables us to calculate
the remaining columns of a life table. The following paragraphs describe how each column was
calculated and how it is interpreted and used.

1. n q x is the probability of dying between exact ages x and x+n. the last open ended age
group will always be 1.0 as every one alive at the start of the interval dies during the
same interval.

2. n px is the probability of surviving between exact ages x and x+n. It is just the

complement of n q x . Thus:
n p x  1 n q x  n p x  n q x  1
For instance, the probability of surviving between age 5 and 10 is written as: 5 p 5  1 5 q5
3. l x is the number of persons alive at exact age x. It is different from the functions
discussed so far in that it refers to an exact age, rather than to an age interval. l 0 is an
arbitrary number called the radix. Usually it will be around number such as 1 or 100 or
1,000 or 100,000.

To calculate l x it is necessary first to choose a suitable radix. Then using n p x values and
the following formulae one can calculate the l x values consecutively.
l x  l x n  n p x  n
 l xn  l x n p x
l xn
n px 
lx
Hence, for instance, the formulae for the number of persons alive at age 10 is given as
l10  l5  5 p5 for 5 age interval.
4. n d x is the number of persons dying between exact age x and x+n. It is just the difference
between two l x s. Algebraically it is represented by:
n d x  l x  l xn
For instance, the formula to calculate the number of persons dying between age 10 and 15:
5 d 10  l10  l15

Note that for the last, open ended age group the number of persons dying is the same as
the number alive at its start. That is

35
 d x  l x
Hence for age 80+; d 80  l80
n d x can also be calculated using the formulae
n d x  l x n q x
In words, it means the number of persons dying during the interval is equal to the
number alive at its start multiplied by the probability of dying during the interval.
5. n L x is the number of person-years lived between exact ages x and x+n. Each person
surviving through the interval contributes n person-years, while those who die during the
interval will contribute only n n a x years, the calculation of n L x thus involves an
assumption about n a x . The formulae is
n Lx  nl x  n  n a x n d x 
Now if n a x is assumed to be 0.5, then the formulae becomes
n Lx  nl x  n  0.5 n d x 
 nl x  n d x  0.5 n d x   nl x  0.5 n d x 
n
 nl x  0.5l x  l x  n 
l x  l x  n 

2
This formula will make the calculation easier, where n L x will be the average of two l x s
multiplied by n. Of course, this is not valid for L0 or 4 L1 as n a x is not 0.5 at these ages.
The calculation of n L x for the last, open-ended age group involves M x  that is the ASDR in
the open-ended interval. For a life table population n M x could be estimated as:
n dx
n Mx 
n Lx

In words, the ASDR is the number of life-table deaths divided by the number of person-years
lived. Rearranging the equation give
n Lx
n Lx 
nMx

Hence, for the last open-ended age group such as, for the 80 years and above:
d
L80  80 
M 80 
But d 80  l80 since everyone eventually dies so
l80
L80 
M 80 
If M x  is not available, then it is probably best to estimate Lx  using model life tables or a life
table for a country with a similar level of mortality.

36
6. Tx is the total number of person-years lived after exact age x. It is thus simply the n Lx
column cumulated from the bottom. That is
Tx  Tx  n  n L x
Thus, at the last age group
T80  L80
The main purpose of this function is in the calculation of the next function that is the
expectation of life.
7. e x is the expectation of life at age x, or the average number of years a person aged x has
to live. Since the total number of years left to be lived by l x people is Tx . The expectation
of life is just one divided by the other. Thus
T
ex  x
lx
Thus the expectation of life at birth is
T
e0  0
l0

37
38
39
 Example:
Table 3.3. Calculation of Abridged Life Table for males in Rural Ethiopia, 1984.
Age Mid-year Deaths in ASDR M x Fraction of year #of years Probability of
interval x to population year D x lived a x n dying q x
x+n p x

0 545,203 41485 0.076091 0.3 1 0.07224

1-4 2,330,529 39888 0.017115 0.4 4 0.01694
5-9 2,851,420 14638 0.005134 0.5 5 0.00512
10-14 1,810,093 6259 0.003458 0.5 5 0.003452
15-19 1,170,312 4424 0.00378 0.5 5 0.003773
20-24 858,903 5852 0.006813 0.5 5 0.00679
25-29 797,645 2839 0.003559 0.5 5 0.003553
30-34 744,494 2743 0.003684 0.5 5 0.003678
35-39 783,094 2541 0.003245 0.5 5 0.00324
40-44 666,963 3001 0.004499 0.5 5 0.004489
45-49 526,118 2557 0.00486 0.5 5 0.004848
50-54 476,600 3387 0.007107 0.5 5 0.007081
55-59 332,657 1899 0.005709 0.5 5 0.005692
60-64 374,806 3977 0.010611 0.5 5 0.010555
65-69 235,565 2138 0.009076 0.5 5 0.009035
70-74 215,007 4000 0.018604 0.5 5 0.018433
75-80 110,250 2132 0.019338 0.5 5 0.019153
80+ 213,609 7133 0.033393 1.0000

Cont’d: calculation of abridged life table for males in rural Ethiopia, 1984
Age Probability of Probability of Survivors to # of person Person #of person Expectation
interval dying surviving exact age dying d years lived years lived of life at age
n x
x q p l L above Tx ex
n x n x x n x

0 0.07224 0.92776 100000 7224 94943 7392014 73.92014

1 0.01694 0.98306 92776 1572 367331 7297071 78.65257
5 0.00512 0.99488 91204 467 454852 6929740 75.98065
10 0.003452 0.996548 90737 313 452902 6474887 71.35884
15 0.003773 0.996227 90424 342 451265 6021985 66.59719
20 0.00679 0.99321 90082 612 448880 5570720 61.84054
25 0.003553 0.996447 89470 318 446555 5121840 57.24645
30 0.003678 0.996322 89152 328 444940 4675285 52.44172
35 0.00324 0.99676 88824 288 443400 4230345 47.62614
40 0.004489 0.995511 88536 398 441685 3786945 42.77293
45 0.004848 0.995152 88138 427 439622 3345260 37.95479
50 0.007081 0.992919 87711 621 437002 2905637 33.1274

40
55 0.005692 0.994308 87090 496 434210 2468635 28.34579
60 0.010555 0.989445 86594 914 430685 2034425 23.49383
65 0.009035 0.990965 85680 774 426465 1603740 18.71778
70 0.018433 0.981567 84906 1565 420617 1177275 13.86562
75 0.019153 0.980847 83341 1596 412715 756657 9.079049
80+ 1.0000 0.00000 81745 81745 343942 343942 4.207499

age pa qx px lx dx Lx Tx ex
0 627069 0.07224 0.92776 100000 7224 102167.2 5977122 59.77122
1 601807 0.01694 0.98306 92776 1571.625 93404.65 5874955 63.32408
2 757114 0.01694 0.98306 91204.37 1545.002 91822.38 5781550 63.39115
3 743895 0.01694 0.98306 89659.37 1518.83 90266.9 5689728 63.45937
4 841286 0.01694 0.98306 88140.54 1493.101 88737.78 5599461 63.52878
5 721795 0.00512 0.99488 87689.26 448.969 87913.75 5510723 62.84376
6 860095 0.00512 0.99488 87240.29 446.6703 87463.63 5422809 62.15946
7 783642 0.00512 0.99488 86793.62 444.3834 87015.82 5335346 61.47163
8 942517 0.00512 0.99488 86349.24 442.1081 86570.29 5248330 60.78027
9 616277 0.00512 0.99488 85907.13 439.8445 86127.05 5161759 60.08534
10 1068668 0.003452 0.996548 85610.58 295.5277 85758.34 5075632 59.28744
11 891067 0.003452 0.996548 85315.05 294.5076 85462.31 4989874 58.48762
12 923594 0.003452 0.996548 85020.55 293.4909 85167.29 4904412 57.68502
13 548201 0.003452 0.996548 84727.05 292.4778 84873.29 4819244 56.87964
14 579987 0.003452 0.996548 84434.58 291.4682 84580.31 4734371 56.07147
15 764909 0.003773 0.996227 84116.01 317.3697 84274.69 4649791 55.27831
16 537581 0.003773 0.996227 83798.64 316.1723 83956.72 4565516 54.48199
17 339318 0.003773 0.996227 83482.46 314.9793 83639.95 4481559 53.68265
18 709541 0.003773 0.996227 83167.48 313.7909 83324.38 4397920 52.88028
19 214949 0.003773 0.996227 82853.69 312.607 83010 4314595 52.07487
20 773472 0.00679 0.99321 82291.12 558.7567 82570.49 4231585 51.42214
21 168645 0.00679 0.99321 81732.36 554.9627 82009.84 4149015 50.76343
22 354140 0.00679 0.99321 81177.4 551.1945 81452.99 4067005 50.10021
23 208178 0.00679 0.99321 80626.2 547.4519 80899.93 3985552 49.43246
24 204319 0.00679 0.99321 80078.75 543.7347 80350.62 3904652 48.76015
25 595752 0.003553 0.996447 79794.23 283.5089 79935.99 3824301 47.92704
26 220059 0.003553 0.996447 79510.72 282.5016 79651.97 3744365 47.09258
27 192707 0.003553 0.996447 79228.22 281.4979 79368.97 3664713 46.25515
28 356318 0.003553 0.996447 78946.72 280.4977 79086.97 3585344 45.41473
29 101081 0.003553 0.996447 78666.22 279.5011 78805.98 3506257 44.57132
30 681677 0.003678 0.996322 78376.89 288.2702 78521.03 3427451 43.73038
31 71118 0.003678 0.996322 78088.62 287.2099 78232.23 3348930 42.88628
32 205004 0.003678 0.996322 77801.41 286.1536 77944.49 3270698 42.03906
33 105374 0.003678 0.996322 77515.26 285.1011 77657.81 3192754 41.18871
34 88737 0.003678 0.996322 77230.16 284.0525 77372.18 3115096 40.33523
35 509031 0.00324 0.99676 76979.93 249.415 77104.64 3037724 39.46124
36 138819 0.00324 0.99676 76730.51 248.6069 76854.82 2960619 38.58464

41
37 122084 0.00324 0.99676 76481.91 247.8014 76605.81 2883764 37.70518
38 236007 0.00324 0.99676 76234.11 246.9985 76357.61 2807158 36.82287
39 74583 0.00324 0.99676 75987.11 246.1982 76110.21 2730801 35.93769
40 631121 0.004489 0.995511 75646 339.5749 75815.79 2654691 35.0936
41 57013 0.004489 0.995511 75306.43 338.0506 75475.45 2578875 34.24508
42 150820 0.004489 0.995511 74968.38 336.533 75136.64 2503399 33.39274
43 79116 0.004489 0.995511 74631.84 335.0223 74799.35 2428263 32.53655
44 51132 0.004489 0.995511 74296.82 333.5184 74463.58 2353463 31.6765
45 423167 0.004848 0.995152 73936.63 358.4448 74115.85 2279000 30.82369
46 86014 0.004848 0.995152 73578.19 356.707 73756.54 2204884 29.96654
47 71345 0.004848 0.995152 73221.48 354.9777 73398.97 2131127 29.10522
48 138309 0.004848 0.995152 72866.5 353.2568 73043.13 2057728 28.2397
49 42360 0.004848 0.995152 72513.24 351.5442 72689.02 1984685 27.36997
50 471443 0.007081 0.992919 71999.78 509.8304 72254.69 1911996 26.55559
51 36292 0.007081 0.992919 71489.95 506.2203 71743.06 1839742 25.73427
52 84128 0.007081 0.992919 70983.73 502.6358 71235.04 1767999 24.9071
53 54233 0.007081 0.992919 70481.09 499.0766 70730.63 1696763 24.07402
54 47637 0.007081 0.992919 69982.01 495.5426 70229.79 1626033 23.23501
55 212845 0.005692 0.994308 69583.68 396.0703 69781.71 1555803 22.35874
56 67319 0.005692 0.994308 69187.61 393.8159 69384.51 1486021 21.47814
57 46849 0.005692 0.994308 68793.79 391.5743 68989.58 1416637 20.59251
58 73318 0.005692 0.994308 68402.22 389.3454 68596.89 1347647 19.70181
59 24110 0.005692 0.994308 68012.87 387.1293 68206.44 1279050 18.806
60 382375 0.010555 0.989445 67295 710.2987 67650.14 1210844 17.99308
61 22599 0.010555 0.989445 66584.7 702.8015 66936.1 1143194 17.16902
62 45158 0.010555 0.989445 65881.89 695.3834 66229.59 1076258 16.33617
63 32128 0.010555 0.989445 65186.51 688.0436 65530.53 1010028 15.49443
64 26228 0.010555 0.989445 64498.47 680.7813 64838.86 944497 14.64372
65 152828 0.009035 0.990965 63915.72 577.4786 64204.46 879658 13.76279
66 34461 0.009035 0.990965 63338.25 572.261 63624.38 815454 12.87459
67 40366 0.009035 0.990965 62765.98 567.0907 63049.53 751829 11.9783
68 44310 0.009035 0.990965 62198.89 561.967 62479.88 688780 11.07384
69 13006 0.009035 0.990965 61636.93 556.8896 61915.37 626300 10.16112
70 200678 0.018433 0.981567 60500.77 1115.211 61058.38 564385 9.32856
71 12164 0.018433 0.981567 59385.56 1094.654 59932.89 503326 8.475574
72 24141 0.018433 0.981567 58290.91 1074.476 58828.15 443393 7.606569
73 14905 0.018433 0.981567 57216.43 1054.67 57743.77 384565 6.721245
74 12473 0.018433 0.981567 56161.76 1035.23 56679.38 326821 5.819296
75 65660 0.019153 0.980847 55086.1 1055.064 55613.63 270142 4.904006
76 16580 0.019153 0.980847 54031.03 1034.856 54548.46 214528 3.970476
77 12063 0.019153 0.980847 52996.18 1015.036 53503.69 159980 3.018717
78 21051 0.019153 0.980847 51981.14 995.5948 52478.94 106476 2.048373
79 6371 0.019153 0.980847 50985.54 976.5261 51473.81 53998 1.059081
80+ 190043 1 0 1682.523 1682.523 2523.784 2524 1.500128

42
 Of 100,000 born alive, number living in Average
year of age remaining
years of
Of 100,000 Number of active life
born alive, man-year in for
number the labor survivors Complete
living and in force in labor expectation
labor force remaining force at of life at
Percent of at beginning in the year beginning beginning
population in In the of year of of age and of year of of year of
age labor force population In the labor force age later years age age

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

* * * *
13 wx Lx Lwx L wx l wx T wx e wx ex
14 255.373 84580.31 21599532 4541963 4541963
15 336.7957 84274.69 28383355 4525551 4533757
16 236.7013 83956.72 19872668 4508476 4517013
17 149.4045 83639.95 12496186 4491465 4499971
18 312.4167 83324.38 26031931 4474519 4482992
19 94.64381 83010 7856383 4457637 4466078
20 340.5661 82570.49 28120710 4434036 4445836
21 74.25578 82009.84 6089705 4403928 4418982
22 155.9308 81452.99 12701027 4374026 4388977
23 91.66249 80899.93 7415489 4344326 4359176
24 89.96334 80350.62 7228610 4314828 4329577
25 262.3145 79935.99 20968369 4292562 4303695
26 96.89379 79651.97 7717781 4277311 4284937
27 84.85048 79368.97 6734495 4262114 4269712
28 156.8897 79086.97 12407935 4246970 4254542
29 44.5068 78805.98 3507401 4231881 4239426
30 300.148 78521.03 23567928 4216579 4224230
31 31.31384 78232.23 2449751 4201070 4208825
32 90.26495 77944.49 7035655 4185619 4193345
33 46.39704 77657.81 3603092 4170224 4177922
34 39.07163 77372.18 3023057 4154886 4162555
35 224.1305 77104.64 17281504 4140519 4147703
36 61.12315 76854.82 4697608 4127104 4133811
37 53.75459 76605.81 4117914
38 103.9158 76357.61 7934764
39 32.83951 76110.21 2499422
40 277.8878 75815.79 21068281
41 25.10329 75475.45 1894682
42 66.40729 75136.64 4989621
43 34.83543 74799.35 2605667

43
44 22.51384 74463.58 1676461
45 186.3239 74115.85 13809556
46 37.87267 73756.54 2793357
47 31.41379 73398.97 2305740
48 60.89859 73043.13 4448224
49 18.65146 72689.02 1355756
50 207.5802 72254.69 14998646
51 15.97967 71743.06 1146430
52 37.04225 71235.04 2638706
53 23.87924 70730.63 1688993
54 20.97496 70229.79 1473067
55 93.7174 69781.71 6539761
56 29.64111 69384.51 2056634
57 20.628 68989.58 1423117
58 32.28252 68596.89 2214480
59 10.61583 68206.44 724068
60 168.3629 67650.14 11389772
61 9.950526 66936.1 666049.4
62 19.88344 66229.59 1316872
63 14.14622 65530.53 927009.5
64 11.5484 64838.86 748785.3
65 67.29143 64204.46 4320410

Analysis of Socioeconomic Structure and Dynamics

Types of Multiple Decrement Tables

Multiple decrement tables incorporating conventional life table components and using life table
techniques have been employed in the analysis of various socioeconomic characteristics of the
population. In particular, they have been used in the analysis of labor force, martial composition,
and educational status. These tables may be constructed as multiple decrement tables in which
there are two or more forms of exit from initial cohort, one of which is mortality and the other
some change in social or economic status (e.g., exit from nonworking population, or entry into
the labor force; exit from the single population, or marriage). These same tables or extensions of
them may then go on to measure the exits from the new status (e.g., retirement from labor force;
divorce or widowed).
Another form of constructing the tables involves the use of prevalence rates in which the life
table stationary population is distributed into different statuses according to the prevalence of
those statuses in the actual observed population. The working life table and school-life table
described in detail below are of this type.

Working-Life Tables
Working- life tables have been prepared by combining mortality rates with labor force
participation rates. Tables of working life are useful in understanding the mechanisms and

44
implications of changes in the labor force. Those which have been constructed have based on
synthetic cohorts and represent the life cycle of economic activity implicit in mortality rates and
worker rates for a single year or group of years. These tables provide an indication of the average
number of working years to be expected after a given age by all persons or by persons in the
labor force attaining the age. In addition, the tables provide information on age-specific rates of
accession to, and separation from, the labor force. These measures are useful for studying growth
and change in the activity rates and age-structure of the population.

There are several ways to construct a complete working-life table. The procedure used here
distributes the life table stationary population according to the work status of the actual
population at the same age and assumes that the mortality rates of the general population and the
labor force are the same. We can explain the meaning of each column and the method of
*
derivation of the functions of the table by considering each column. The special columns l wx , L*wx ,
Twx* , and e *wx represent the same functions as in a standard life table except that these columns
*
refer to working life. This is indicated by the notation w. The functions l wx , e *wx and e x refer to
exact age at each birth day (cols 5, 7 &8) while the rest of functions refer to age intervals
between two exact age ages (cols 1 to 4 &6) or between the midpoint of two age intervals (cols 9
to13).

Column(1)- w x -This column refers to the worker rate or activity rate, or the percentage of the
population in the labor force. These rates were obtained for 5-year age groups and taken as
central values for these age groups. The values were then interpolated by single years of age and
extrapolated beyond age 75 (75 and over was an open interval in the census data). Minor changes
were introduced into the central values for the lake of smoothness.
Column(2)- L x -As in a standard life table, this column refers to the stationary population, or the
number of persons who would be living at any age interval out of 100,000 born alive.
Column(3)- Lwx -This column refers to the stationary male labor force under the prevailing
activity rates, or the number of male in the stationary population expected to be in the labor force
at each age. It is computed by the formulae
Lwx  Lx  wx
Column(4)- L*wx -This column represents the number of males in the stationary population who
would hypothetically be active if the worker rate at each age under 37 years were the same as at
age 37, the maximum worker rate, or
L*wx  Lx  w37
This column is required in calculating average number of remaining active years per active
survivor at ages under 37 years in order to eliminate the effects of accessions to the active
population.

45
 *
Column(5)- l wx -The number of male survivors at each exact age who would hypothetically be in
the labor force if the activity rate at each age under 37 years were the same as at age 37.
1
*
l wx  L*wx 1  L*wx 
2
*
Column(6)- Twx - This column represents the remaining years in the labor force at any age
including the hypothetical L*wx values for ages under 37. It may be expressed as follows:
Twx*   L*wx
*
Column(7)- l wx - This column represents to the average remaining number of years of active life
for males in the labor force at the given age and is computed from the values of Twx* and the
*
numbers of active survivors, including the hypothetical numbers at ages under 37 ( l wx ), as
follows:
* Twx*
ewx  *
l wx
However, for ages 37 and over
* T
ewx  wx
l wx
Column(8)- e x -As in the standard table, this column represents the average number of years of
life remaining at the beginning of the given year of age and is represented by the formulae
T
ex  x
lx
The underlying functions, Tx and l x , are not shown since the derivation of e x and e *wx
represents the average remaining number of inactive years of life for males in the labor force at
any given age.
Column(9)- Q x -This column represents the mortality rate for males living in the year of age. It is
computed as
Lx  Lx 1
Qx 
Lx
Note that this mortality rate is in terms of the stationary population rather than the survivors at
exact ages, as in the computation as a standard life table.
Column(10)- 1,000 Ax -This column represents the rate of net accessions to the male labor force
between successive years. The rate is derived as the net increase in the stationary labor force per
1,000 persons in the stationary population after allowing for mortality of workers during the year
( Lwx Q x ).
Lwx 1  Lwx  Lwx Q x
Ax 
Lx

46
Column(11)- Q xs -This column represents the separation rates from the stationary male labor
force due to all causes and was computed as a ratio of the difference between the stationary labor
force in successive years to the labor force at age x, or
L  Lwx 1
Q xs  wx
Lwx
For ages 14-37 it was assumed that death was the sole cause of labor force separations and,
therefore, Q14s to Q37s  Q14 to Q37 .
Column(12)- Q xd -This column represents the ate of separation from the labor force due to death
under the assumption that the ASDRs for males in the labor force are the same as those for all
males.
d
Qx 

Q x 2  Q xd 
2  Qx
These rates differ from those in column (9) because deaths following retirement during the
interval are excluded.
Column(13)- Q xr -This column represents he rate of separations from the labor force due to
retirement.
Q xr  Q xr  Q xd
Abridged tables of working life are more common than complete tables because data on
population and labor force by single years of age are often not available. The abridged form of
working life table differs from the complete form of the table in the same way that the standard
complete and abridged tables differ from one another. The rates of accession and separation
indicate the probabilities that persons in an age interval will enter or leave the labor force over
the next 5-year (or other special) interval. The values for Lwx , L*wx , w x , Twx* refer to the 5-year (or
other special) age interval, or the age interval and all later intervals. The 5-year activity rates are
interpolated to exact age x, then applied to l x of the standard life table to derive l wx , the number
reaching a given age in the labor force. 5 Lwx is then obtained from l wx by standard short-cut
methods. In an alternative procedure 5 Lwx is calculated as the product of 5 w x and 5 L x . In
general, the major assumptions and methodology present in the construction of single-year tables
described also apply to the abridged tables.

The construction of tables of working life for females presents some special problems because of
the more irregular age pattern of economic activity of women. Such tables may be expanded to
take account of labor force participation of women by marital status and presence of children and
to provide average number of years of work remaining for women according to these variables.

47
School-Life Tables
Another type of multiple decrement life table, the school life table, combines mortality rates and
school enrollment rates to provide estimates of the average number of years of school life for the
total population and the enrolled population. Like the working life table, it is really a type of
combined increment-decrement table. The table may be extended to provide age-specific rates of
net accession to, and age-specific rates of separation from, the school population, distinguishing
separation due to death and separation due to drop-out.

The columns of school life table leading to the values of the average expectation of school life
are illustrated in table ------for the Ethiopia in 2007. The average number of years of school life
for the total population e x  is derived by dividing the total number of person-years spent in
school by the cohort after a given age  L sx or Tsx  by the total number of persons reaching that
age l x  .
Tsx
e sx 
lx
The value of Tsx are divided by summing the Lsx column, the stationary school population, and
Lsx is obtained by multiplying the total stationary population at each age ( Lsx ) by the proportion
enrolled s x  in each age in the actual population.
Lsx  Lx s x
The number of years of school life for enrolled persons esx,  is derived by dividing the total
number of person-years spent in school by the cohort after a given age  L sx or Tsx  by the
number reaching that age and enrolled in school l sx  .
Tsx
e x, 
l sx
The number reaching a given age and enrolled in school l sx  is obtained from the Lsx column by
the formulae
Lsx 1  Lsx
l sx 
2
Table -----also shows, for the Ethiopia in 2007, net accession rates and separation rates due to
deaths for the ages where enrollment rates are rising; and total net separation rates, rates of net
separation due to drop-out, and rates of separation due to deaths, for the ages where enrollment
rates are falling.

48
4. Fertility
4.1. Definition and Concepts
Fecundity is the capacity of a man-woman or couples to produce a live child. Fertility is limited
by fecundity. Fecundity is also physiological capacity of women to reproduce. Natality is a
general term representing the role of births in population changes and human reproduction.
Fertility is the more redefined analysis of natality. Fertility is the study of the childbearing
performance of couples in a population. Fertility refers to the measurement of live births only.
The record or count of births must include all live born products of pregnancy and exclude
pregnancies not terminating in a live birth, i.e., fetal deaths. Unlike death event, which generally
affects, at least demographically, the deceased alone, in the occurrence of a birth event more than
one individual, that is, both parents will be involved. In addition the parents could be exposed to
a birth event more than once in their lifetime, which complicates the measurement and analysis
of fertility contrary to mortality, which occurs once in a lifetime to an individual.

In fertility, only the women in the reproductive age group from 15-49 are at risk of childbearing.
The childbearing performance of couples could be controlled by consciously taking modern or
traditional contraceptive methods for delaying or limiting the number of children a woman
would have in her lifetime. Nevertheless, there are population groups that do not attempt to use
deliberate measures to limit the number of births. This population groups are said to experience
natural fertility. In general, the study of fertility should consider the factors that influence the
performance of childbearing such as modernization level, social customs and cultural beliefs of
societies. Modernization level directly or indirectly affects length of the reproductive span, adult
life expectancy, the average ages at marriage, breast-feeding and weaning practices.

Data requirements for the measurement of fertility:

The three principal demographic data collection methods, these are, VSRS, census and national
sample surveys are used to collect fertility data. Two types of data from two different sources are
required. That is the birth events that come from VSRS, and particularly in the developing
countries, the number of birth events in a given year is usually obtained from censuses or
national sample surveys. In general, where the data source of the vital event is other than the
conventional source, that is, other than VSRS, then both the vital events and the population at
risk will come from one data source.

4.2. Measurements of Fertility Statistics

There are two ways of approaching the study of fertility based on birth statistics: period and
cohort fertility. Period fertility analysis looks at fertility cross-section, that is, at births occurring
during a specified period of time, normally one year. Cohort fertility analysis, on the other hand,

49
looks at fertility longitudinally, that is, at all births occurring to a specific group of women,
normally all those born or married during a particular year. One is looking over time, at their
reproductive history. A series of measures of period fertility are discussed here.

4.2.1. Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

The CBR is a simple and most frequently used measure of fertility. The CBR is defined as the
number of births in a year per 1,000 mid-year population. It is given by
Births in a year B
CBR   1,000   1,000
population at mid  year P
The rate is called crude because it includes all ages and both sexes in the denominator. That is,
the base for its calculation involves the whole population, including men, children, and women
outside the reproductive ages. Because of this, it is strictly not a measure of fertility and it is not
a true rate. It is just a ratio that indicates the population growth.

4.2.2. The Child-Woman Ratio (CWR)

It is the simplest and commonly used measure that could be obtained using census data. It is
computed by dividing the number of children age under 5-years old in the population by the
number of women in the childbearing ages, that is, 15-49 years old.
Number of children under 5  year P
CWR   1000  0 4  1000
Number of women at reproductive ages Pf 15 49
The population distribution by age and sex is sufficient to obtain the numerator and denominator
values of the ratio. The ratio has an advantage, as it requires only age and sex distribution of the
population from a single source; however, it is extremely crude measure. Hence, specifically, it
cannot be used to compare populations with varying levels of mortality.

4.2.3. General Fertility Rate (GFR)

It overcomes the limitation of CWR. The GFR is defined as the number of births per 1,000
women of childbearing age.
Births in a year B
GFR   1,000   1,000
Female population aged 15  49 Pf 1549
The GFR is a much better measure when compared with the CBR, as it considers the women that
are exposed to risk of birth in the denominator. But it does not control entirely for age structure
of women within the reproductive ages.

4.2.4. Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs)

The reproductive age interval 15-49 can be either divided into single year, or 5-year or wider
intervals and rates could be made specific for each age group. As the name indicates, age-
specific birth rate is a refined measure of fertility. It is defined as the number of births to women
of a given age group per 1,000 women in that age group. It is calculated as:

50
 Births in a year to women aged x  x to x  n inyear t B
ASFR   1,000  n f x  n x  1,000
Women aged x  x to x  n in year t n Px

ASFRs are usually expressed per 1,000 women. An example is given in Table 4.1 using the data
obtained from the 1984 population and housing census of Ethiopia. As it is the case for the
majority of the developing countries, VSRS is non-existent in Ethiopia, hence, the numbers of
births indicated in the table where those obtained by applying unconventional questions in the
census schedule.
Table 4.1: ASFR for Ethiopia-Total Population, 1984.
Age group Number of women Birth in the year ASFR
15-19 1370431 119531 87.2
20-24 1125800 258868 229.9
25-29 1204109 312320 259.4
30-34 1118370 266456 238.3
35-39 967798 200381 207.0
40-44 789732 103811 131.5
45-49 525971 45653 86.8
TFR 6.2
Source: CSA, 1991
As we have done for ASDRs, here also the ASFRs could be graphed for observing their pattern
in the reproductive lifespan. The graph tends to show regular feature, where it starts from zero at
very young ages (less than 10), and reveals a rapid rise to a peak in the early or mid-twenties and
a gradual decline to a very low level after age 40, then declining gradually until again reaching
zero 50 years of age.

ASFR Vs Age Group

300
250
200
R
F 150
S
A
100
50
0
<15 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 >50
Age Group

As it was the case with ASDRs, hence also the ASFRs are not convenient for comparing
different population groups, as they are not single number measures. This problem is resolved by

51
the development of a formula that summarizes the specific rates into single figure, known as the
Total Fertility Rate.

4.2.5. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Total Fertility Rate is obtained by summing up the ASFRs over the whole range of reproductive
ages for a particular year. It is interpreted as the number of children a woman would have during
her lifetime if she survives up to age 50 and were to experience the fertility rates of the year at
each age. Then TFR is given by
45  49
5  ASFR
i 15 19
i
TFR 
1,000
In the formulae it is necessary to divide by 1,000 because TFR is always expressed per a single
woman. On the other hand, ASFRs are often expressed per 1,000 women. In example given
above, the TFR for Ethiopia, 1984 was found to be 6.2 children per a woman.

4.2.6. Marital Fertility Rates

It is rather a common practice to calculate fertility rates specific to various marital status groups,
where the commonly used is fertility rates for married couples. Here we will consider the
General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR), Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rates (ASMFRs), General
Legitimate Marital Fertility Rate (GLMFR), and Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR).

 The General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR), which is similar to the general fertility rate,
is the ratio of total live births in a given year, to the average number of married women of
childbearing age in the population during the year. It is calculated using the formulae:
Total number of live Births B
GMFR   1,000   1,000
Married Female population aged 15  49 MPf 15 49
 The other measure is the General Legitimate Marital Fertility Rate (GLMFR), and given
as:

Births to married women in a year B m  Bm

GLMFR   1,000   1,000
Married Female population aged 15  49 MPf 15 49
 Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rate (ASMFR)-is defined as the number of live births
occurring to marrid women of a particular age group, normally expressed per 1,000
women. It is expressed as:

ASMFR 
Births ina year to married women aged x Bim  
 1,000
Married womenaged x Px fm 

52
  Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR)-is the sum of the ASMFRs of a particular year over
the whole range of reproductive ages. It represents he number of children a woman would
have if she experienced the average marital fertility at every age. It is given as:
45  49
5  ASMFR
i 15 19
i
TMFR 
1,000

Illegitimate births
 FIFR   1000
Numbre of sin gle, widowed , divorced women of age 15  49

4.3. Reproduction Rates (RRs)

Reproduction rates are used to measure the extent to which one generation is reproducing itself
by the force of natural process. Fertility and mortality are the two natural forces that affect the
size and composition of a population that are used as inputs for the measurement of reproduction.
Generally, there are two conventional measures of reproduction rates, the gross reproduction rate
and the net reproduction rate. The degree of refinement of the rates in considering the factors of
reproduction is the major dividing line between the two rates. The gross reproduction rate does
not consider the effects of mortality. On the other hand, the net reproduction rate considers the
effect of factors of reproduction, these are, fertility and mortality, and hence, it is the true
measures of reproduction.

4.3.1. The Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

The GRR is a special case of total fertility rate. It is expressed as the average number of
daughters that would be born to a woman during here lifetime if she is experiencing the average
age-specific fertility pattern of the year considered. Here, the difference between TFR and GRR,
lies on the type of children considered where, TFR considers the total number of children while
the GRR the number of daughters only. In other words, it is calculated in the same way as the
total fertility rate but uses female age-specific fertility rates.
45  49
5  ASFFR
i 15 19
i
GRR 
1000

where, ASFFRi 
Female Births in a year towomen aged x Bi f 
 1,000
Women aged x Pxf  
based on the interrelationship between the TFR and GRR as stated above, it is possible to
convert TFR to GRR, simply by multiplying the TFR by the proportion of births that are female.
The formulae is given as:
Bf
GRR  TFR  t
B

53
 Bf
Where, t is the proportion of female births.
B
If the true sex ratio at birth is not known, it is quite acceptable to assume 105. The GRR assumes
that all females survive from birth to age 15 as well as up to end of the childbearing period.
Hence, in the interpretation of GRR, specifically in high mortality areas, a GRR value of 1.0
does not necessarily insure the capacity that the population is replacing itself. Thus, a GRR
greater than 1.0 daughter per woman is required to achieve replacement level. Similar to the
GRR, the TFR is not adjusted for the impact of mortality, which implies a requirement of TFR
figure of over 2.0 children per woman to ensure the capacity of the population to replace itself in
a generation.
Example 4.2 calculation of GRR-rural Ethiopia, 1982/83
Age group women Total births Female births ASFFR
15-19 977407 94157 45176 46.22025
20-24 916721 198144 96446 105.2076
25-29 977586 230213 112982 115.5724
30-34 888196 170201 82588 92.98398
35-39 755600 123546 60120 79.56591
40-44 619377 42863 20654 33.34641
45-49 438492 13501 6614 15.08351
Total 5573379 872625 417966 487.9801
Source: Report on experimental sample vital registration system (ESVRS):VOL.I,1990
5   ASFFRi 5  488
GRR    2.44
1000 1000

AGE GROUP Vs ASFFR

140
120
ASFFR
100
80
60
40
20
0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
AGE GROUP

54
4.3.2. The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
The NRR is a measure of the number of daughters that a cohort of new born babies will bear
during their lifetime assuming a fixed schedule of ASFRs and a fixed set of mortality rates. Thus,
the NRR is a measure of the extent to which a cohort of newly born girls will replace themselves
under given schedules of age-specific fertility and mortality condition. Some girls will die before
attaining the age of reproduction, others will die during the reproductive span, and others will
live to complete their reproductive life.
It is expressed as
Bf L B f 45 49 B t L
NRR  5   i f 5 x or in terms of TFR, NRR  5  t  if 5 x
Pi l 0 B i 15 19 Pi l 0
Where, Bi f , Bit , and Pi f are female births, total births and female population at each age interval,
5 Lx L
respectively.  5 x is a life table population (called stationary population) with a radix
l0 100,000
l 0  100,000.
An example on the calculation of net reproduction rate on Bangladesh data that is taken from
Colin Newell’s book is presented below.
Example 4.3 Calculation of NRR: Bangladesh, 1974. (reproduced from Colin Newell Text,
page108)
Age Female ASFRs 5 Lx
Female births to
(3)
group (1) f
 Bi  (2) 100,000 women in stationary
 f 
 Pi  population (4)=(2)x(3)
15-19 0.097 0.745 0.072265
20-24 0.164 0.722 0.118408
25-29 0.151 0.696 0.105096
30-34 0.127 0.670 0.08509
35-39 0.096 0.642 0.061632
40-44 0.046 0.612 0.028152
45-49 0.007 0.577 0.004039
Total 0.474682
Bi f 5 L x
Hence, using the formulae, NRR  5   f =5x0.474682=2.37
Pi l 0
The GRR for Bangladesh in1974 has been 3.44, and the NRR is less by about 1.07 daughters.
The NRR is always slightly less than GRR, where the difference depends on the level of
mortality in the particular country. Essentially, the NRR is a GRR adjusted for mortality.

55
5. Migration
5.1. Concepts and Definition
Migration is one of the three basic demographic factors that affect the size and composition of
the population of an area; where the two other factors are birth and death. In the study of
demography, the measurement and analysis of migration is important primarily, in the
preparation of current population estimates and projections for the total country as well as the
administrative subdivisions. The daily movement of individuals for various reasons from one
part of an area to the other may interest various disciplines, to know the effect of the movement
vis-à-vis the place of origin and destination. It is true that all forms of movement in space will
exert some impact on people’s life, hence need to be measured in some way. However, in
practice it is difficult to measure every movement of persons. There are two concepts that are
used to differentiate and give degree of importance for the measurement of movement of people.
The first category is known as mobility, which refers to all forms of spatial movement, while
those movements that involve change of usual residence either on permanent or semi-permanent
basis are called migration. Migration is the subject that is considered as the main body of
demography.

Even though the general concept of migratory movement is based on change of usual residence,
however, for measurement purpose it requires to consider various dimensions of people’s
movement and put criteria that differentiate simple mobility from migratory movement. There
are three dimensions normally considered.

The first dimension refers to the permanence of the movement. For instance, tourist trips,
commuting and nomadic movements are not considered as part of migration. In practice, it is
difficult to differentiate temporary and permanent movements, and one of the principal
mechanisms used to decide whether the movement is permanent or not is by inquiring the
intention of individuals. That is, even though they have not decided yet, by asking whether they
are intended to stay long or not. For instance, tourist trips, commuting and nomadic moments are
not considered as part of migration.

The second dimension refers to the distance of the movement. From the measurement aspect it is
not easy to set a minimum distance to call the movement migratory or not. Hence, considering
the purpose of the migration data to administrative needs, the usual practice is to relate the
distance dimension to whether the movement involves crossing some administrative boundary.
In measuring migration it is necessary to define the lowest administrative area that is used as a
reference in specifying the migration area.

The third diminution is the consideration of the time period within which the movement has to
take place. In conjunction to the permanence and the distance dimensions, the time factor is

56
important to specify the migratory movement. There is no standard time reference period that is
used as a criterion in defining the minimum migration time period.

In general, with the improvement of economic and social conditions and the increase of
communication and transport systems, people increase the desire to change residence. Therefore,
migration is considered as the phenomenon of people changing their place of usual residence
from one area (place of origin) to another area (place of destination). There is no clear-cut
definition for migration in either time or space. It involves a certain distance and implies an
intention that the move be permanent. Hence a migrant is a person who moves a certain distance
with the intention that the move is permanent, and the move affects the population growth of the
areas of both origin and destination.

From administrative or legal point of view, migration may be classified into two categories:
internal and international. Internal migration is the movement of people within the boundaries of
a single country while international migration is the movement from one country to another
country.

Only a few developed countries maintain population registers which record not only births and
deaths but also other changes in the status of its citizens, such as civil status, employment,
change of residence, etc. in most countries, migration is estimated indirectly, resulting in only a
partial detection of the total movement. If the population of a country or of an area within a
country is growing at a rate different from the rate of natural increase, the difference is due to
migration.

5.2. Internal migration

Internal migration is migratory movement within specified country or territory. Considering the
three dimensions of migratory movement, migration for operational purposes is defined as a
movement of individuals or groups of people from one administrative area (migration-defining
area) to another that was made during a given migration interval (lifetime current migration) and
that involved a change of residence (considering intention and arbitrary time period). For
instance, in the 1984 census, migration defining areas were created based on two administrative
area classifications. Accordingly, Woreda administration was taken as migration-defining area
for rural areas while towns were taken for urban areas.

The forms of internal migration are conventionally designated as in-migration and out-migration.
In-migration refers to migrants from the point of view of the receiving area. Thus an in-migrant
is a person who enters a migration-defining area by crossing its boundary from some point
outside the area, but within the same country. Out-migration refers to migrants from point of
view of departing area. Thus, an out-migrant is a person who departs from a migration-defining
area by crossing its boundary to a point outside it, but within the same country. Internal migrants

57
should cross administrative boundaries such as region and/or district (woredas), depending on
the objective of data collection.

Although there are various reasons for migration, economic development accelerates internal
migration. Job opportunities, better salaries, educational possibilities, and other factors (social
services) start to attract people from other areas of the country. For planning purpose, it is
necessary to know the number and characteristics of the migrants. There are few methods for
measuring, migration, depending on the nature of the available data.

5.3. Sources of Internal Migration Data

There is no single source, which is adequate for measuring all types of migration stocks and
flows. Broadly there are two ways of collecting or obtaining internal migration data, which are
termed as direct methods and indirect methods. The most common source of data on population
mobility is a census or sample survey of households. Another source is the continuous
population register. These sources serve to provide data on migration through direct as well as
indirect data collection methods. Data from VSRSs in conjunction with census population
enumeration data are used to estimate migration through indirect estimation procedures.

Population Register
A continuous population register requires that a person who moves transfer his record from one
local registry to another. From these changes of residence, migration statistics are complied.
Population register is therefore the conventional and appropriate source of internal migration
data. However, as we seen previously, this system is installed in only few countries of the world.
Migration statistics have been published for many years by the Scandinavian countries and a few
other western European countries and more recently by eastern European countries as well. The
countries

Censuses and Surveys

Census and surveys are major sources of internal migration data for most countries of the world.
On other hands, through census indirect estimation procedures are used to obtain internal
migration data. The usual direct questions that are included in censuses and surveys to obtain
internal migration data are: place of birth, place of last residence, duration of residence in the
place of enumeration or survey area, place of residence on a specific date before the census or
survey date.

National Practice
As it is the case for most countries of the world, in Ethiopia the sources of internal migration
data are censuses and surveys. The various approaches used to collect migration data through
censuses is applied in all the 1984, 1994 and 2007 population and housing censuses. For
instance, in the 1984 census two questions on migration were included: place of birth and
duration of continuous residence. Similarly in the 1994 census, leaving the place of birth

58
question, only duration of continuous residence and additional data on whether the migration is
from urban or rural area was considered. In censuses it is difficult to collect detailed information
on migration (like reason for migration and characteristics of the migrants), as it is the case with
other variables, hence it is more advantageous to conduct specialized migration sample survey or
to incorporate migration inquiries in relevant demographic surveys.

5.4. Measurement Of Internal Migration

Vital statistics method
Countries with a reliable birth and death statistics registration system have the advantage of
estimating net migration by deducting the natural increase from the population change at two
dates. This estimation could be made using the basic demographic equation. Where the balancing
equation can be put in the following simple form:
NM  Pt  n  Pt  B  D 
Where, NM=net migration, Pt is the population at an earlier census, Pt  n is the population at the
later census, B is the number of births occurred to residents of the area during the inter-censual
period, and D is the number of deaths occurred to residents of the area during the inter-censual
period. Countries with incomplete or inadequate VSRS could not use this indirect estimation
procedure.
This method can be extended to obtain age specific estimates of migration. Assuming the
migration is absent, we would have
Px  n,t  n  Px ,t  n D x
Where, Px  n,t  n is the number of persons aged x+n at the year t+n and they are survivors of
Px ,t , Px ,t is the number of persons who were x years old n years ago, n D x is the number of deaths
occurred during the interval t to t+n.
But, if this equation does not balance, the difference has to be accounted for by migration, on the
assumption that data are extremely accurate. Then the net migration can be obtained by:
n NM x  Px  n ,t  n  Px ,t  n D x

The question of birth does not arise when x>0 and can be applied for the first year of life with
suitable modifications. This method has very limited application.
a. Only a few countries have fairly accurate statistics on births and deaths.
b. Events are recorded according to calendar year and hence the mix up of cohorts
could affect estimates.
c. This method can estimate only net migration and cannot give estimates of the two
components, in- and out-migration, separately.

Census and Survival Ratio Method

The survival ratio method uses age and sex distribution data at two successive censuses. Then the
difference between the enumerated population at the second census and the expected population

59
will give the estimate of net migration for the particular area. The expected population is
calculated by applying the survival ratio to the first census. It is expressed as:
NM  x   Px  n,t  n  n S x Px ,t
Where, NM(x) is the net migration of survivors among persons aged x at the first census in a
given area (they will be aged x+n at the second census), and n S x is the probability of surviving
the next n years (survival rate), from census method or from the life-table survival ratio in
L
which n S x  n x .
Lx
Example: suppose a census that was taken in 1975 enumerated 6490 persons at ages 45 to49 in a
certain area; and 10 years later, in 1985, a second census enumerated 7380 persons at ages 55 to
59 in the same area.
a. During the 10 year period 625 persons died. Determine the number of migrants.
b. The cohort of persons 45 to 49 years old enumerated in 1975 had a survival ratio of
0.9037 during the inter-censual period. Determine the number of migrants.
Px  n, t  n  Px ,t  n D x This equation must balance if there were no migration
 P4510 ,1975 10  P45,1975 10 D45
P55,1985  P45,1975 10 D45  7380  6490  625  5865
Since it does not balance, we have to use n NM x  Px  n ,t  n  Px, t  n D x
10 NM 45  P55,1985  P45,1975  10 D45  7380  6490  625  1515
n NM x  Px  n,t  n  n S x Px, t  7380  6490  0.9037  1515

Migration Rates
In applying and calculating the various indices of migration, close assessment of the questions
used to collect the migration data is important.

The overall migration rate is expressed as the number of migrants (or the number of migrations)
related to the population that could have performed the migrations during the given migration
interval. It is calculated as:
M
m k
P
Where, m= the rate of migration for the specified migration interval, M=the number of persons
migrating (or the number of migrations) during the interval, k= a constant, usually 1,000.
In the calculation of the various measures of migration, identifying the proper base population or
the risk-population is problematic. However, for most practical purposes the population resident
in the study area will be taken as the population exposed to the risk of migration.

60
 In-migration rate: is expressed as the ratio of the total number of persons who entered to the
migration-defining area during the migration interval to the population of the destination area.
I
It is given as: INm   k
P
Out-migration rate: is expressed as the ratio of the total number of persons who left the
migration-defining area during the migration interval to the population of the area of origin. It
O
is given as: OUTm   k
P
Net-migration rate: is expressed as the ratio of the difference between the in and out
I O
migration to the population of the study area. It is given as: NETm  k
P
EXAMPLE: in-migration, out-migration and net-migration rates for selected regions: 1984.
Region Total In- Out- INm OUTm NETm
population migrants migrants
Arssi 1,662,300 142,647 80,834 8.6 4.9 3.7
Bale 780,241 83,684 37,840 10.7 4.8 5.9
Tigray 191,097 10,426 116,445 5.5 60.9 -55.5
…
Addis 1,422,439 643,366 72,196 45.2 5.1 40.2
Ababa
Source: extract from the 1984 Population Census; National Analytical Report.
Flow matrix analysis: it is possible to construct a matrix that cross relates the in-migrants to
out-migrants. Such a matrix gives the number of moves from each area to every other area.
Example: Flow matrix of migrants for selected regions: 1984
Region of Region of Destination
Origin Arssi Bale Gamo Gofa Gojjam Addis Ababa …
Arssi - 17,273 615 1,191 11,864 30979
Bale 9,654 - 735 1, 414 3,500 15303
Gamo Gofa 995 915 - 766 17, 917 20593
Gojjam 2,083 1,163 705 - 29,698 33649
Addis Ababa 3,466 1,622 1,303 2,843 - 9234
… 16198 20973 3394 6214 62979 109758
Source: extract from the 1984 Population Census; National Analytical Report.
The marginal diagonals give the total number of persons moving into and out of each area. Net
migration can be calculated by subtracting gross flows. The leading diagonal sometimes could
be left empty, or it can be used to give the number of internal moves within each area.
5.1 International migration
International migration is the type of migration that refers to movements of individuals,
families or mass movements across national bounders. There are two conventional forms of
expressions of international migration, which are called emigration and immigration.

61
Emigration is designated from the standpoint of the nation from which the movement occurs
and immigration from that of the receiving nation.
Sources of international migration data
There are various sources of data that provide international migration information. In fact
there is no single source that satisfies the statistical data need for international migration.
Shryock et al. identified six conventional international migration data sources.
1. Statistics collected on the occasion of moment of people across international borders,
mostly as a by-product of the administrative operations of frontier control.
2. “Passenger statistics” obtained from lists of passengers on sea or air transport manifests.
3. Statistics of passports and of applications for passports, visas, work permits, etc.
4. Statistics obtained in connection with population register.
5. Statistics obtained in census or periodic national surveys on the basis of inquiries
regarding previous residence, place of birth or citizenship.
6. Statistics collected in special or periodic inquiries regarding migration, previous and
present residence, or a count of citizen overseas.

62
6. Population Change and Dynamics
6.1. Population Change
Population dynamics is the study of changes in population size and structure brought about by
the interplay of fertility, mortality and migration. The interplay of factors of population dynamics
results in two basic forms of population change; they are changes in the total size and changes in
the structure, that is, primarily age and sex composition of populations. A change in the total
sizes of populations is expressed mathematically, following absolute or relative change.

6.1. 1. Measurement of Population Change

Population change is usually measured by the difference between population sizes at different
dates. In the study of human population, a change whether an increase or a decrease, in the size
of a particular population is expressed as growth. The positive or negative growth of population
comes from only three sources; they are birth, which adds persons, death, which deducts persons
and migration, which adds in case of in-migration, while deducts in case of out-migration. The
effects of these sources vary from time to time.

The measurement of the change in the size of a population of an area is important for various
purposes. Population change could be measured using two approaches. One is through
calculating the difference between the numbers of persons present at two different dates, which
gives the change in absolute measure. Using the absolute numbers it is possible to calculate the
change in percentages during the intervening period, which gives the magnitude of the difference
in relative number. Using the absolute numbers is possible to calculate the change in percentages
during the intervening period, which gives the magnitude of the difference in relative number.
The other approach is based on vital statistics data that enables to calculate the net-change in
absolute number on annual basis. We have seen the formulae for the measurement of population
change between two dates by counting the changes in the population size due to the occurrence
of vital events in the intervening dates. Where though the basic demographic equation the
relationship is expressed as: population change in absolute number is equal to changes due to
natural increase and changes due to net-migration in the intervening period. The relative change
is easily calculated by dividing the absolute change by the mid-year population. The second
approach, which is based on vital statistics data, could not be used in countries that do not have
complete VSRS.

In the measurement of population change of particular area over the period in question, it
requires considering or to check primarily three issues, they are:
 change in territory
 change in definition, and
 change in accuracy or measurement of data.
In calculating population change the area should be constant, the group should be defined on a
consistent basis, and the accuracy of coverage or classification should not vary significantly.

63
 a) Absolute Change
The absolute change of population is obtained by subtracting the population at the earlier date
from that at the later date. If two censuses cover the same territory, and follow similar rules of
enumeration, the change in size of the population in the two censuses may be measured as the
total determined in the second census (P2) minus the total in the first census (P1). Thus, the
population change is equal to P2-P1.

For example, to calculate the population change between the 1984 and 1994 censuses of
Ethiopia, first we need to have the population size in the two census dates. From the census
reports, the population of Ethiopia in 1984 has been 42,616,876 persons, and in 1994 it was
53,132,257 persons. From the discussion above, it is necessary to check whether the territorial
definition of the country and the census coverage is comparable in the two census dates.
Accordingly, due to the changes in the territorial definition of the country in the two census
dates, it is necessary to detect the population of Eritrea and Asseb Administration from the 1984
population size. Furthermore, it is necessary to take similar population size definitions, in terms
of coverage in the census counts, that is, covered or estimated population sizes and census
enumeration approaches, whether de jure or de facto count. Hence, the estimated population size
of Ethiopia in the 1984 census needs to be 39,868,572 persons, after deducting Eritrea and Asseb
Administration. Therefore, the absolute populations change in the ten-year interval: is
P2-P1 = 53,132,257- 39,868,572 = 13, 263,685 persons.

b) Relative Change
The relative or percentage change is obtained by dividing the absolute change by the population
P  P1
at the earlier date. The relative change is measured by the ratio 2 , or the observed change
P1
in numbers divided by the number of people at the beginning of the period. The ratio, for
P
computational convenience is presented as 1  1 and usually expressed in percentage’s that is
P2
by multiplying it by 100, which is called percentage change. Appling the formulae for the
Ethiopian data:
 53,132,257 
  1  100  33.33% change.
 39,868,572 
The ratio or percentage that revealed the relative change indicates a degree of growth, where it is
not yet a rate of growth.
c) Rate Of Population Growth

64
The derivation of rate of growth starts by converting the ratio of change into annual rate. This
P
begins with the ratio 2 , which measures the later population in terms of the earlier. The two
P1
well-known measures of population change are the geometric change and exponential change.
Geometric change is a measure of population increases, or decreases, by assuming that the
change follows the same rate over each unit of time, for example, each year. If the constant rate
of change is represented by r and the initial population by P0 , then after n years the final
n
population, which is represented by Pn is given as: Pn  P0 1  r  .
To find the rate of population change (r), it requires transforming the above formula into a
formula that enables to use logarithms, which simplifies its calculation.
P
log 1
P P0
 log 1  n log 1  r   log1  r  
P0 n
Pn
log
P0
log 1.33268
For data give for Ethiopia: log1  r   
 0.01247
n 10
 1  r  1.029134  r  0.029134
Or in terms of percent, 2.91% per year.

The other way of translating the degree of growth into a rate of growth is known as exponential
growth rate. The exponential growth rate treats the change as a continuous process rather than a
set of periodic changes. Here, natural logarithms are employed which is given as:
Pn  P0 e r n
P 
Solving for r, we get: r  ln  1  / n .
 P0 
With the data given for Ethiopia: 1.33268  e r n  r n  0.28719 where n is10. While
r=0.028719 or 2.87 percent.
Both formulas are used in the calculation of rate of population growth. However, exponential
growth rate describes the nature of population growth better as it considers population change as
a continuous process.
Doubling Time of Population- sometimes it is interesting to know the time it would take for the
population to double in size if the current rates where to continue. Consider an exponential
growth rate give:
Pn  P0 e r n
ln 2
we want to find the time when Pn  2 P0 . That is, 2 P0  P0 e r n  rn  ln 2  n  , which
r
depends on annual growth rate, r.

65
6.2. Effects of Components on Population Sizes and Structure
The population dynamics deals with two basic forms of population changes: change in the total
size and change in the structure. Conventionally, population structure refers to to the distribution
of a population by age and sex. The age and sex distribution of a population is entirely
determined by the levels of fertility, mortality and migration occurring in the past. These three
factors affect the age distribution in different ways to different extent.

6.2.1. The effect of fertility

The effect of births of any particular year is revealed on the number of infants in the population.
Hence, the age structure will be affected at the bottom, that is, in the first years of age. In
general, a higher number of births, which results in a high birth rate will start exerting changes in
the shape of the age structure at the particular year, and also in the latter years as the newly born
children reach at childbearing ages. Similar effects but in the opposite direction will be revealed
for a lower number of childbearing ages. In conclusion, a change in the levels of fertility will, at
first, affect just the youngest age groups, and over many years, that is, when those that are born
at some point reach to the childbearing age, then their effect on the age structure will be
observed.

6.2.2. The Effects of Mortality

The effect of mortality is reflected through the number of deaths that occur through all ages.
Hence, its effect is spread throughout the life span of the human population. Death will occur at
any time after a live birth. Even though, the effect of mortality is distributed on all age groups,
however, changes in mortality actually are unequal by age. For example, variations in the level
of infant mortality tends to produce an effect very similar to that caused by a change in fertility,
affecting first the youngest ages and only gradually working through to the whole age range. In
populations with high infant and childhood mortality the age structure shows a different pattern
at young age groups. However, a change in adult mortality is generally, has a much lesser
dramatic impact on the shape of an age distribution than either fertility or infant and child
mortality changes. Deaths on the human population can occur due to various reasons,
specifically, deaths that occur because of famines, epidemics, or wars, which are prevalent in the
developing world, and which affect particular age groups disproportionately; can have a big
impact on the age structure for many years.

6.2.3. The Effect of Migration

The effect of migration on the age structure of a population is manifested either by inflating or
deflating particular age groups. The most likely age groups that would be affected highly due to
migration are the young and middle age groups. The effects of migration on the age and sex
structure of a population could come due to international and internal migrations. Hence,
national age structures are affected due to international migration, while sub-national or regional
age structures by internal migration. In general, in-migration and immigration will have a
positive effect on the age structure, while out-migration and emigration will have a negative
66
effect by depleting the population sizes of the various age groups. Generally, it is assumed that
age structures of areas from which substantial numbers have emigrated will have too many older
people but deficit young and middle age population structure. Conversely areas where substantial
numbers of immigrants have settled will have a young age structure, with many children and
very few elderly.

Overall, an age structure is best regarded as being determined primarily by fertility, and
modified, to a greater and lesser extent, by mortality and migration

6.3. Concepts of Stable and Stationary Populations

Stable population-is a population, which is closed to migration and has an unchanging age
structure that increases (or decreases) in size at a constant rate. A stable population is the
outcome of the maintenance over many decades of fixed rates of fertility and mortality. Although
its overall size changes its characteristics do not change. Hence, the word ‘stable’ here describes
the unchanging shape of the age structure, not the total size of the population. Euler (1760) was
the first to formulate the fundamental bases of stable population theory; however, it was Lotka
(in the twentieth century) that brought the prominence and the application of the concept of the
stable population.

Stationary population-is a population closed to migration with unchanging age structure in

which the annual number of births is equal to the number deaths, producing a zero growth rate. A
stationary population, therefore, is a special case of a stable population with no growth in
numbers. A stationary population, sometimes also termed a life table population, is a constant
based on the ASDRs of a given life table.

67
7. Population Estimates and Projections
Population censuses provide us with population totals, age-sex composition and marital status
distribution as well as characteristics of the population as enumerated on the census date.
Generally, since censuses are conducted once in a decade or in the case of a few countries once
in five years, totals and other characteristics of a population are available once in five or ten
years. Also, population is constantly changing, sometimes quite rapidly, and hence statistics for
every tenth years are not adequate for most current purposes. Public health officials, market
research analysts, public and private planners, and others need current data to plan and evaluate
programs. In order to meet the need for basic population figures a wide variety of estimating
techniques have been developed.

7.1. Types of Population Estimates

Analytical techniques involving the use of vital statistics data, immigration data and other types
of data can be used to prepare estimates for past and future dates as well as for current dates.
Population estimates are; therefore, refer to mainly approximations of population figures
obtained by analytical methods (non-survey). Estimates can be divided into several types on the
basis of their time reference and basis of derivation. Some are:
a. Intercensal estimates, which relate to a date intermediate to two censuses and take the
results of these censuses into account.
b. Postcensal estimates, which relate to a past or current date following a census and take
that census and possibly earlier censuses into account, but not latter censuses.
c. Projections, which relate to dates following the last census, usually future dates, for which
no current reports are available.
d. Precensal estimates, which relate to the date preceding a census and take account of that
census and possibly census but not earlier censuses.
e. A censal estimates, which are not based on census data at all.

7.2. Methods of Estimation

The most important factor determining the choice of the method to be used in preparing a given
population estimate is the type and quality of data available for this purpose. Several methods for
making postcensal estimates of the total population are available, each applicable under different
circumstances.
a. Component method: when a satisfactory census count and satisfactory data on births,
deaths and migration are available a simple component method may be used. The method
consists essentially of adding natural increase and net immigration for the period since
the last census to the latest census count. The basic estimating equation is given as:
P1=P0 +B-D+I-E
b. Use of National Sample Surveys and Registrations: It is preferable, when possible, to
prepare postcensal estimates on the basis of census counts and direct data on postcensal
changes from registration systems or a population register. Adequate postcensal estimates

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 may also be derived by updating the results of a national sample survey or a national
registration to the estimate date, on the basis of the balance of births, deaths and
migration.
c. Estimates based on extremely limited data: For many developing countries, the data
available for making current population estimates are extremely limited. Following the
classification of the United Nations, Shryyock and Siegel (1976) distinguished the types
of situations for which estimates have to be derived from extremely limited data as
follows:
i. estimates based on one census only,
ii. estimates based on incomplete censuses,
iii. estimates based on noncensal estimates, and
iv. estimates based on ‘reasoned guesses’.

7.3. Nature and Types of Population Projection

Population projections are activities aiming at calculating the future values of a given population
by taking into account changes that have occurred in the past, such as growth rates and levels of
mortality, fertility, and migration.
The principal uses of population projections and other demographic projections relate to
government or private planning. Demographic projection may be used directly or as the basis for
preparing other more specified types of projections. These include, for example, projections of
the expected number of retirements from the labor force in a given period, and of the required
number of teachers or classrooms, housing units, medical personnel and facilities, etc. A first
step in planning is to study relevant aspects of the population and the economy both at the
present time and in the recent past. Such study provides for projections resenting plausible
furthers curses of development in, addition to the uses in the field of planning there are important
uses in policy formulation, in demographic analysis and related types of scientific studies.
There are two main categories of population projection methods.
 Mathematical methods
 Component method

7.3.1. Mathematical methods

The mathematical methods involve application of some mathematical formula, directly to the
total population from one or more censuses, to derive projections of total population the most
frequentations. Such projections are usually made by extrapolating past population trends into
future.

1. Linear function
Assumes that the average annual increases that occurred during a recent period will be repeated
in the future, then

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 Where: Pt is the population at year t.
n is the number of years to project from year t
Pt  P0
X is the average annual increase. That is X  (P0 is population in the base year)
t

2. Exponential function
In this method, it is assumed that human populations tend to grow exponentially. Here we can
use the general formula for population growth at a constant rate. It is expressed as:
Pt  P0 e r n  Pt  n  Pt e r n
Example: Suppose a population grew from 619, 380 in 1993 to 751,740 in 2002 find a
population projection for the year 2019.
a. Using the linear function Pt  n  Pt  nX , the linear: annual average increase is
Pt  P0 P  P1993 751,740  619,380
X   2002   14,706.7 persons per year
t 2002  1993 9
The number of years between the last census and the year of projection is
n =2019- 2002= 17 years.
Therefore, Pt  n  Pt  nX  P2019  P2002  nX
P2019 =751,740 +17(14,706.7) = 1,001,753.9
b. Exponential: Pt  P0 e r n  Pt  n  Pt e r n
P  P   751,740 
ln  t  ln  2002  ln  
Pt nr  Pt   P0   P1993   619,380 
 e  ln    nr  r     0.0215
P0  P0  n 2002  1993 9
Since the method assumes constant rate of growth, we can apply the calculated r to project
the population in 2019.
Pt  n  Pt e r n  P2019  P2002 e 0.021517  1,083, 408
It is known that projection bases on the exponential function are consistently higher than those
based on the linear function Since growth rated are likely to change in the long term the above
methods are recommended for use only in making short-term projection.

3. Logistic function
Using a logistic function is a more complicated procedure and requires a greater number of
observations covering a longer period. At the same time it is useful for projection overcomes a
principal weakness in the use of the exponential rate, namely the possibility of obtaining
extremely large population figures after a short period.

Although the techniques mentioned so far are often useful for theoretical purposes, and are
consequently used extensively by demographers and other researchers, they are not very useful
for producing ‘real’ Projections to be used by planners and others.

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This is, first, because they do not use information on the structure of the current population and,
second because they cannot easily be used to produce breakdowns of the composition of the
projection population.

The trend toward refinement of the methodology of population projections has led to increased
specificity of assumption and the estimation categories on the ground that more accurate
assumptions can be made for those more specific rates for the frequency of methods based on
birth or marriage cohorts and specific rates for the events affecting these cohorts as they progress
through life. Therefore, mathematical methods are now less frequently used and slowly replaced
by a different technique known as component method.

7.3.2. Component method

This method involves the separate projection of mortality, fertility, immigration and emigration.
It is the procedure for projecting the population by considering the levels of mortality, fertility
and migration, by age and sex.
Based on past information, assumptions are made about future trends in these components.
 A base population is obtained after analyzing the available age and sex structure.
 The mortality levels and patterns by sex and age have to be projected.
 The fertility rates have to be projected (ASFRs)
 The total number of migrants and their age and sex composition have to be estimated for
the past and projected into the future
A projection can be carried out by single ages or by groups of ages. For simplicity we consider
the single age projection for female population.
The female population aged x+1 at year t+1 FPxt11  is given as:
FPxt11  FPxt  FS xt  G xt
- Where, FPxt -represents the base year population of female at age x in a given year t,
- FS xt - is the female survival ratio that is the proportion of females of aged x who
 L 
survive one year  S x  x 1 
 Lx 
- G xt -represents the migration components

The basic formula Pxt11  Pxt S xt  G xt

This formula is applied to all ages, to continue the projection process, except the final open-
ended age group and the population under age one by the end of the year. For the open-ended
age group, say ages 85 and over, it is given as:
 T 
FP85t 1  FP84t  FS 84t    FP85t   85   G84t 
 T84 

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The projected population in year t+1 and aged 85+ comprise the survivors of both 84 year old
and 85+ year olds in year t.
To estimate the population under age one at the end of year t (or at the beginning of year t+1),
first obtain the total number of births, which is given by:
49
Bt   ASFR t
x  FPxt
x 15
t
The value of B represents births of both sexes. The proportion of female births to total births can
be used to separate the female from the male births. The female births during year t are:
FB t  h  B t
FB t  represents female births
h is the proportion of female births.
Then, the projected population at age 0 in year t+1 is obtained by
FP0t 1  FB t  FS b , 0 +FG0
If there are migrants under one year of age, the migration component must be incorporated. The
same procedure is used for males.
Once the population of each sex is projected for a year, the method is repeated for successive
years, and the projection by sex and age is obtained for any desired year.
In general, to carry out any component population projection requires three things.
 A base population from which the projection starts;
 A set of assumptions about the course of events during the period covered by the
projection;
 A method by which the assumptions are applied to the base population.

Population size, compositions, its spatial distribution and some other demographic and socio-
economic data are very important for planning, monitoring and evaluation of various development
programs. The population and housing census is main source of these data.

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