Chapter 2:

Probability

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 Section 2.1: Basic Ideas
Definition: An experiment is a process that results in
an outcome that cannot be predicted in advance with
certainty.

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 Section 2.1: Basic Ideas
Examples:
 rolling a die
 tossing a coin
 weighing the contents of a box of cereal

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 Sample Space
Definition: The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is called the sample space for the
experiment.

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 Sample Space
Examples:
• For rolling a fair die, the sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.

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 Sample Space
Examples:
• For a coin toss, the sample space is {heads, tails}.

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 Sample Space
Examples:
• For weighing a cereal box, the sample space is (0, ∞), a more
reasonable sample space is (12, 20) for a 16 oz. box.

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 More Terminology
Definition: A subset of a sample space is called an
event.

• For any sample space, the empty set  is an event, as

is the entire sample space.

• A given event is said to have occurred if the outcome

of the experiment is one of the outcomes in the event.
For example, if a die comes up 2, the events {2, 4, 6}
and {1, 2, 3} have both occurred, along with every
other event that contains the outcome “2.” 8
 Example 1
An electrical engineer has on hand two boxes of
resistors, with four resistors in each box. The
resistors in the first box are labeled 10 ohms, but in
fact their resistances are 9, 10, 11, and 12 ohms. The
resistors in the second box are labeled 20 ohms, but
in fact their resistances are 18, 19, 20, and 21 ohms.
The engineer chooses one resistor from each box and
determines the resistance of each.

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 Example 1 cont.
Let A be the event that the first resistor has a resistance
greater than 10, let B be the event that the second
resistor has resistance less than 19, and let C be the
event that the sum of the resistances is equal to 28.

1. Find the sample space for this experiment.

2. Specify the subsets corresponding to the events

A, B, and C.

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Example 1 cont.

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Example 1 cont.

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 Combining Events
The union of two events A and B, denoted
A  B, is the set of outcomes that belong either
to A, to B, or to both.

In words, A  B means “A or B.” So the event

“A or B” occurs whenever either A or B (or both)
occurs.

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Venn diagram

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 Example 2
Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {2, 3, 4}.
What is A  B?

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 Intersections
The intersection of two events A and B, denoted
by A  B, is the set of outcomes that belong both
to A and to B.
In words, A  B means “A and B.”
Thus the event “A and B” occurs whenever both
A and B occur.

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Venn diagram

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 Example 3
Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {2, 3, 4}.
What is A  B?

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 Complements
The complement of an event A, denoted Ac, is
the set of outcomes that do not belong to A. In
words, Ac means “not A.” Thus the event “not
A” occurs whenever A does not occur.

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 Example 4
Consider rolling a fair six-sided die. Let A be
the event: “rolling a six” = {6}.
What is Ac = “not rolling a six”?

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 Mutually Exclusive Events
Definition: The events A and B are said to be mutually
exclusive if they have no outcomes in common.

More generally, a collection of events A1 , A2 ,..., An

is said to be mutually exclusive if no two of them have
any outcomes in common.

Sometimes mutually exclusive events are referred to as

disjoint events.
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Venn diagram

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 Back to Example 1
• If the experiment with the resistors is
performed
– Is it possible for events A and B both to occur?
– How about B and C?
– A and C?
– Which pair of events is mutually exclusive?

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Example 1

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 Probabilities
Definition: Each event in the sample space has a
probability of occurring. Intuitively, the probability
is a quantitative measure of how likely the event is to
occur.

Given any experiment and any event A:

 The expression P(A) denotes the probability that the
event A occurs.
 P(A) is the proportion of times that the event A would
occur in the long run, if the experiment were to be
repeated over and over again.

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 Axioms of Probability
1. Let S be a sample space. Then P(S) = 1.

2. For any event A, 0  P( A)  1 .

3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then

P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B ) . More generally, if
A1 , A2 , are mutually exclusive events, then
P( A1  A2  )  P( A1 )  P( A2 )  

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 A Few Useful Things
• For any event A,
P(AC) = 1 – P(A).
• Let  denote the empty set. Then
P() = 0.
• If A is an event containing outcomes O1 , , On , that
is, if A  O1 , , On  , then
P( A)  P(O1 )    P(On )

• Addition Rule (for when A and B are not mutually

exclusive):
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A  B )
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 Example 5
A target on a test firing range consists of a bull’s-eye
with two concentric rings around it. A projectile is fired
at the target. The probability that it hits the bull’s-eye is
0.10, the probability that it hits the inner ring is 0.25,
and the probability that it hits the outer ring is 0.45.

1. What is the probability that the projectile hits the

target?

2. What is the probability that it misses the target?

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Example 5

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 Example 6
• The following table presents probabilities for the
number of times that a certain computer system will
crash in the course of a week. Let A be the event that
there are more than two crashes during the week, and
let B be the event that the system crashes at least
once. Find a sample space. Then find the subsets of
the sample space that correspond to the events A and
B. Then find P(A) and P(B).

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Example 6

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Example 6

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 Example 7

In a process that manufactures aluminum cans, the

probability that a can has a flaw on its side is 0.02, the
probability that a can has a flaw on the top is 0.03, and
the probability that a can has a flaw on both the side and
the top is 0.01.

1. What is the probability that a randomly chosen can

has a flaw?

2. What is the probability that it has no flaw?

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Example 7

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Example 7

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 Example 7 cont.

What is the probability that a can has a flaw on the top

but not on the side?

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 Example 8

• An extrusion die is used to produce aluminum rods.

Specifications are given for the length and the
diameter of the rods. For each rod, the length is
classified as too short, too long, or OK, and the
diameter is classified as too thin, too thick, or OK. In
a population of 1000 rods, the number of rods in each
class is as follows:

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 Example 8

• A rod is sampled at random from this population.

• What is the probability that it is too short?

• What is the probability that it is too thick?

• What is the probability that it is either too short or too

thick?

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 Example 8

• A rod is sampled at random from this population.

What is the probability that it is too short?

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