Cairo University – Faculty of Engineering – Mechanical Design & Production Dept.
Production Planning and Control (MDP4340) – Spring 2026
Tutorial #2: Forecasting (2/2)
Problems to be solved by students in class: 1, 2
Problems to be solved by the TA in class: 4
Problems to be solved by students and submitted next week: 3, 5
1) [Section 2.7] Problem 24, page 75
Observed weekly sales of ball peen hammers at the town hardware store over an
eight-week period have been 14, 9, 30, 22, 34, 12, 19, 23.
a. Suppose that three-week moving averages are used to forecast sales. Determine the one-
step-ahead forecasts for weeks 4 through 8.
b. Suppose that exponential smoothing is used with a smoothing constant of = .15. Find
the exponential smoothing forecasts for weeks 4 through 8. [To get the method started,
use the same forecast for week 4 as you used in part (a).]
c. Based on the MAD, which method did better?
2) [Section 2.8] Problem 28, page 78.
Shoreline Park in Mountain View, California, has kept close tabs on the number of patrons
using the park since its opening in January 2013. For the first six months of operation, the
following figures were recorded:
Month Number of Patrons Month Number of Patrons
January 133 April 640
February 183 May 1,876
March 285 June 2,550
a. Draw a graph of these six data points. Assume that January = period 1. February = period 2,
and so on. Using a ruler "eyeball" the best straight-line fit of the data. Estimate the slope
and intercept from your graph.
b. Compute the exact values of the intercept a and the slope b from the regression equations.
c. What are the forecasts obtained for July through December 2013 from the regression equation
determined in part (b)?
d. Comment on the results you obtained in part (c). Specifically, how confident would you be
about the accuracy of the forecasts that you obtained?
3) [Section 2.8] Problem 30, page 80.
For the data in Problem 28, use the results of the regression equation to estimate the slope and
intercept of the series at the end of June. Use these numbers the initial values of slope and
intercept required in Holt's method (double exponential smoothing). Assume that =.15,
=.10 for all calculations.
a. Suppose that the actual number of visitors using the park in July was 2,150 and
the number in August was 2,660. Use Holt's method to update the estimates of
the slope and intercept based on these observations.
b. What are the one-step-ahead and two-step-ahead forecasts that Holt's method
gives for the number of park visitors in September and October?
c. What is the forecast made at the end of July for the number of park attendees in
December?
4) [Section 2.9] Problem 34, page 84
A popular brand of tennis shoe has had the following demand history by quarters over a
three-year period.
Year1 Demand Year2 Demand Year3 Demand
1 12 1 16 1 14
2 25 2 32 2 45
3 76 3 71 3 84
4 52 4 62 4 47
a. Determine the seasonal factors for each quarter by the method of centered
moving averages.
b. Based on the result of part (a), determine the deseasonalized demand Series.
c. Predict the demand for the first quarter of Year4 for the deseasonalized series
from a six-quarter moving average.
d. Using the results from parts (a) and (c), predict the demand for the shoes for
first quarter of Year4.
5) [Section 2.9] Problem 35, page 90
Consider the data for Problem 34.
a. Using the data from Year2 and Year3, determine initial values of the intercept, slope,
and seasonal factors for Winters's method.
b. Assume that the observed demand for the first quarter of Year4 was 18. Using = .2,
= .15, and = .10, update the estimates of the series, the slope, and the seasonal factors.
c. What are the forecasts made at the end of the first quarter of Year4 for the remaining three
quarters of Year4?