Chapter 1

Statistics
Success Stories
and
Cautionary
Tales
1.1 What is Statistics?

Statistics is a collection of
procedures and principles for
gathering data and analyzing
information in order to help
people make decisions when
faced with uncertainty.

Chapter 1 : Introduction 2
1.2 Eight Statistical Stories
With Morals
• Case Study 1.1: Who Are Those Speedy Drivers?
• Case Study 1.2: Safety in the Skies
• Case Study 1.3: Did Anyone Ask Whom
You’ve Been Dating?
• Case Study 1.4: Who Are Those Angry Women?
• Case Study 1.5: Does Prayer Lower Blood Pressure?
• Case Study 1.6: Does Aspirin Reduce
Heart Attack Rates?
• Case Study 1.7: Does the Internet Increase
Loneliness and Depression?
• Case Study 1.8: Did Your Mother’s Breakfast Determine
Your Sex?
Chapter 1 : Introduction 3
Case Study 1.1 Who Are Those Speedy Drivers?
Question: What’s the fastest you have ever
driven a car? mph.
Data: 87 male and 102 female students from
large statistics class at University.
Males: 110 109 90 140 105 150 120 110 110 90 115 95 145 140 110 105
85 95 100 115 124 95 100 125 140 85 120 115 105 125 102 85 120 110
120 115 94 125 80 85 140 120 92 130 125 110 90 110 110 95 95 110 105
80 100 110 130 105 105 120 90 100 105 100 120 100 100 80 100 120 105
60 125 120 100 115 95 110 101 80 112 120 110 115 125 55 90
Females: 80 75 83 80 100 100 90 75 95 85 90 85 90 90 120 85 100 120 75
85 80 70 85 110 85 75 105 95 75 70 90 70 82 85 100 90 75 90 110 80 80
110 110 95 75 130 95 110 110 80 90 105 90 110 75 100 90 110 85 90 80
80 85 50 80 100 80 80 80 95 100 90 100 95 80 80 50 88 90 90 85 70 90 30
85 85 87 85 90 85 75 90 102 80 100 95 110 80 95 90 80 90

Which sex tends to drive faster? How to summarize data?

Chapter 1 : Introduction 4
Case Study 1.1 Who Are Those Speedy Drivers?

Dotplot: each dot represents the response

of an individual student.

Chapter 1 : Introduction 5
Case Study 1.1 Who Are Those Speedy Drivers?
Five-number summary: the lowest value, the cutoff
points for ¼ , ½, and ¾ of the data, and the highest value.

Note: ¾ of men have driven 95 mph or more,

only ¼ of women have done so.

Moral: Simple summaries of data can tell an

interesting story and are easier to digest than long lists.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 6
Case Study 1.2 Safety in the Skies?
“Fatal airline crashes drop 65%” New York Times, 2007
“Planes get closer in midair as traffic control errors rise”
“Errors by air traffic controllers climbed from 746 in
fiscal 1997 to 878 in fiscal 1998, an 18% increase.”
USA Today, Levin, 1999

Fatal airline crashes …“the drop in the accident rate

[from 1997 to 2007] will be about 65%,
to one fatal accident in about 4.5 million departures,
from 1 in nearly 2 million in 1997.”
So the rate of fatal accidents changed from
about 1 in 2 million departures in 1997,
to 1 in 4.5 million departures in 2007.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 7
Case Study 1.2 Safety in the Skies?
“Fatal airline crashes drop 65%” New York Times, 2007
“Planes get closer in midair as traffic control errors rise”
“Errors by air traffic controllers climbed from 746 in
fiscal 1997 to 878 in fiscal 1998, an 18% increase.”
USA Today, Levin, 1999
Air traffic control errors … “The errors per million
flights handled by controllers climbed from 4.8 to 5.5.”
So the original rate of errors in 1998,
from which the 18% increase was calculated,
was only about 5.5 errors per million flights.
Moral: When you read about the change in the
rate or risk of occurrence of something, make sure
you also include the base rate or baseline risk.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 8
Case Study 1.3 Did Anyone Ask
Whom You’ve Been Dating?
“According to a new USA Today/Gallup Poll of teenagers
across the country, 57 percent of teens who go out on
dates say they’ve been out with someone of another race
or ethnic group.” (Peterson, 1997).
Sacramento Bee headline read:
“Interracial dates common among today’s teenagers.”

Millions of teenagers in U.S. -- Did polltakers ask all of them? No.

The article states “the results of the new poll of 602 teens, conducted
Oct. 13–20, reflect the ubiquity of interracial dating today…”
Asked only 602 teens. Could such a small sample tell us anything
about the millions of teenagers in the U.S.? Yes…
if those teens constituted a random sample from the population.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 9
Case Study 1.3 Did Anyone Ask
Whom You’ve Been Dating?

How accurate could

this sample be?
Margin of error
is about 5%.
about 1/√N
The percent of all teenagers in the US who date that
would say they have dated interracially is likely to be
in the range 57%  5%, or between 52% and 62%.
Moral: A representative sample of only a few thousand,
or perhaps even a few hundred, can give reasonably
accurate information about a population of many millions.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 10
Case Study 1.4 Who Are Those Angry Women?
Shere Hite sent questionnaires to 100,000 women asking
about love, sex, and relationships. Only 4.5% of the women
responded, and Hite used those responses to write her book,
Women and Love.
“The women who responded were fed up with men and eager
to fight them. For example, 91% of those who were divorced
said that they had initiated the divorce. The anger of women
toward men became the theme of the book.” Moore (1997, p. 11).
Extensive nonparticipation (i.e. nonresponse) from
a random sample, or the use of a self-selected (i.e., all-
volunteer) sample, will probably produce biased results.
Moral: An unrepresentative sample, even a large
one, tells you almost nothing about the population.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 11
Case Study 1.5 Does Prayer
Lower Blood Pressure?
“Attending religious services lowers blood pressure more
than tuning into religious TV or radio, a new study says”
USA Today headline read:
“Prayer can lower blood pressure.” (Davis, 1998)

Based on observational study, followed 2391 people 6 years.

“People who attended a religious service once a week and
prayed or studied the Bible once a day were 40% less likely
to have high blood pressure than those who don’t go to
church every week and prayed and studied the Bible less.”
Researchers did observe a relationship, but it’s a mistake to
conclude prayer actually causes lower blood pressure.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 12
Case Study 1.5 Does Prayer
Lower Blood Pressure?
In observational studies, groups can differ by important
ways that may contribute to the observed relationship.
People who attended church regularly may have …
•been less likely to smoke or drink alcohol;
•had a better social network;
•been somewhat healthier and able to go to church.
These other factors are possible confounding variables.

Moral: Cause‐and‐effect conclusions cannot

generally be made based on an observational study.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 13
Case Study 1.6 Does Aspirin Reduce
Heart Attack Rates?
Physician’s Health Study (1988)
5-year randomized experiment …
• 22,071 male physicians of age 40 - 84;
• randomly assigned to one
of two treatment groups;
• Group 1 = aspirin every other day;
Group 2 = placebo;
• Physicians blinded as to which group
they were in.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 14
Case Study 1.6 Does Aspirin Reduce
Heart Attack Rates?

Aspirin group: 9.42 heart attacks per 1000 participants

Placebo group: 17.13 heart attacks per 1000 participants
Randomization => other important factors (age, exercise, diet)
should have been similar for both groups. Only important
difference should be whether they took aspirin or placebo.
Moral: Unlike with observational studies,
cause‐and‐effect conclusions can generally be
made on the basis of randomized experiments.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 15
Case Study 1.7 Does the Internet Increase
Loneliness and Depression?

“greater use of the Internet was associated with declines in

participants’ communication with family members in the
household, declines in size of their social circle, and increases
in their depression and loneliness” (Kraut et al., 1998, p. 1017)
New York Times headline read:
“Sad, Lonely World discovered in Cyberspace.” (Harmon, 1998)

Study included 169 individuals from 73 households

in Pittsburgh given free computers and internet service.
Participants answered questions at beginning and either 1-2
years later on social contacts, stress, loneliness, depression.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 16
Case Study 1.7 Does the Internet Increase
Loneliness and Depression?
Changes were quite small, although significant …
• # of people in “local social network” decreased from
average of 23.94 to 22.90 people;
• on scale 1 to 5, self-reported loneliness decreased from
average of 1.99 to 1.89 (lower  greater loneliness).
• on a scale 0 to 3, self-reported depression dropped from
average of 0.73 to 0.62 (lower  higher depression).
Follow‐up study: “Using the Internet at home doesn’t make
people more depressed and lonely after all.” (Elias, 2001)
Whether the link ever existed will never be known,
but it is not surprising, given the small magnitude
of the original finding, that it subsequently disappeared.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 17
Case Study 1.7 Does the Internet Increase
Loneliness and Depression?
Moral: A statistically significant finding does not
necessarily have practical significance or importance.
When a study reports a statistically significant finding,
find out the magnitude of the relationship or
difference.
A secondary moral to this story is that the implied
direction of cause and effect may be wrong. In this
case, it could be that people who were more lonely
and depressed were more prone to use the Internet.
And remember that, as the follow‐up research
makes clear, “truth” doesn’t necessarily remain
fixed across time.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 18
Case Study 1.8 Did Your Mother’s Breakfast
Determine Your Sex?

“mothers who ate breakfast cereal prior to conception

were more likely to have boys than mothers who did not”
(Mathews et al, 2008)
9 months later … another study dashed cold milk on this
original claim. (Young et al., 2009)

Dispute based on multiple testing … original study

asked 740 women about 133 different foods.
Found 59% of women who consumed breakfast cereal
daily gave birth to a boy, compared to only 43%
who rarely or never ate cereal.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 19
Case Study 1.8 Did Your Mother’s Breakfast
Determine Your Sex?
This 59% to 43% difference was highly statistically
significant, but almost none of other foods showed a
statistically significant difference.
Could this be a false positive?
The more differences that are tested, the more likely
one of them will be a false positive.
Original study authors defended work (Matthews et al, 2009)
stating only tested individual food items after initial test
based on total pre-conception calorie consumption
showed a difference in male and female births.
Other initial test about vitamin intake. Media found
cereal connection most interesting and publicized it.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 20
Case Study 1.8 Did Your Mother’s Breakfast
Determine Your Sex?

Moral: When you read about a study that found

a relationship or difference, try to find out how
many different things were tested.
The more tests that are done, the more likely it is
that a statistically significant difference is a false
positive that can be explained by chance.
You should be especially wary if dozens of things
are tested and only one or two of them are
statistically significant.

Chapter 1 : Introduction 21
1.3 The Common Elements
in the Eight Stories

In every story,
data are used to make a
judgment about a situation.
This is what statistics is all about.

Chapter 1 : Introduction 22
The Discovery of Knowledge
1. Asking the right question(s).
2. Collecting useful data, which
includes deciding how much is needed.
3. Summarizing and analyzing data,
with the goal of answering the questions.
4. Making decisions and generalizations
based on the observed data.
5. Turning the data and subsequent
decisions into new knowledge.
Chapter 1 : Introduction 23